Beyond the Cusp

January 10, 2018

Iran Will Become Hopes Gained to Hopes Shattered

 

The protest started in Mashhad, the second or third largest city in Iran, on December 28, 2017, over prices and the poor economy. The demonstrators were largely the poor and some students but rapidly spread both along economic grounds to store owners and their employees and to every city. We are now into the second week of the protests and thus far, the leadership of Iran has shown little concern for the problems in their society. That includes both the supposed elected officials and the self-appointed leadership, which includes the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini and the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution who choose the Supreme Leader as well as vetting all candidates running for elected office, eliminating all candidates who show even the slightest glimmer of new ideas which might run contrary to their ninth century thinking. That has been both a good thing and a bad thing. It is kind of a blessing in disguise as the government not reacting means that they have been allowed to protest without overt actions such as loosing the Basij Militias upon the demonstrators as in 2009, but the government has also ignored their plight simply brushing away their complaints as unsubstantiated. Despite not forcefully opposing the demonstrations in their streets, the Iranian protesters have seen more than two-dozen of its members murdered. There have been reports of protesters after-dark firing shots at police armed with rifles and handguns. This is before the totalitarian government has moved to restrict or destroy the protests as they had in the Green Revolution bringing those protests to an end in 2009. The main question we have received is exactly what one would suspect, “What will happen with the demonstrations in Iran and what will President Trump do to support them?” Well, perhaps it is time to answer that composite and comprehensive question.

 

Iranian Protests December 30, 2017

Iranian Protests December 30, 2017

 

Allow us to answer the easier question first, what will President Trump do? Well, he will Tweet about the horrors and how the violence, once it comes, has to end and how he has the ability to strike Iranian leadership with a ‘yuuge’ can of whoopash. Truthfully, he will go to the United Nations Security Council demanding that Chapter Seven mandatory worldwide economic sanctions be imposed on Iran. This will probably result in a complete rejection of the Trump request with a vote where maybe two or three others on the Security Council with Poland and Côte d’Ivoire the only votes we might think to promise supporting such sanctions and with at least three; China, France and Russia, opposing such a resolution resulting in nobody even having to think of pulling out their veto power as the United States was forced to do over the Jerusalem resolution. The next obvious step, which if wise he will not even bother, would be to bring the same resolution under Chapter Six, a nonenforceable motion, form of the resolution which would meet with similar if not identical rejection. Taking any such resolution to the General Assembly would be useful only in displaying to the world how upside down the United Nations has become supporting dictators over people and condemning the free nations for any independent moves they might execute on the international stage. The combination of condemning the United States over recognizing Jerusalem, condemning Israel for existing, and protecting Iran and seldom condemning the slaughters in Syria; and while condemning Israel for Palestinian Arabs in Gaza and Palestinian Authority semi-autonomous regions for beating wives and at the same time saying nothing for the shelling, barrel bombing and use of chemical agents on the largest Syrian Palestinian Arab refugee camp destroying the camp and murdering hundreds if not thousands in the process, have already shown anyone paying even the slightest attention the duplicity of the United Nations at all levels and throughout every last one of its agencies with the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) and UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) leading the way. President Trump does not need to feed the media beast out to consume and destroy him, but he does need to go to the Security Council for whichever version of obvious defeat, Chapter Six or Seven, just to place on the international stage the complete rejection of willing principled action even for protecting citizens protesting the corruption in their government. The reason is obvious, why should the citizens have any right to protest their government because in socialist governance and dictatorial governance, the government knows best and the people should be thankful for whatever dregs are permitted them.

 

Now for the less obvious part of the question, what will happen as a result of these protests. That will come down to what happens after the initial crackdown. What will happen initially is obvious, sooner or later, more likely sooner; the Iranian government will make a pushback over the protesters. How, you wish to know. The initial anti-protest move will be a violent encounter between the civilian protesters and the ‘civilian’ pro-government protesters where the pro-government protesters will be made up of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Basij Militia members in civilian attire. These are military and paramilitary groups trained in hand-to-hand combat likely armed with batons and other handheld weaponry to wield against protesters largely armed with nothing or sticks from their protest signs. The civilian protesters will be unprepared for this pushback, as up to that point they will have faced uniformed police who were only in place to steer and limit their protests from spreading beyond certain limitations. This would be little different than how protests are handled in most nations with soft power but these protests have a different element, they are not going to end by themselves and that is where the problem arises. The Iranian government will not tolerate the bad media they are receiving from having the limitations and internal problems transmitted to the entire world. The Iranian government will need to end the protests so they can return the transmissions from Iran, especially through western media, of a nation where the people are satisfied and all is well.

 

Iranian Protests January 2018

Iranian Protests January 2018

 

Once this initial pushback had played-out and the Iranian leadership has weighed the reactions of the world and the nations within and as long as there is no overt outspoken a direct protest, then they will proceed to the next level of opposition. This will bring on a number of such pushbacks spreading to other cities with the Iranian government continuing to measure international responses. Once they have received some number of international reactions that such violence must end, then the Iranian government will have received the permission they require to put an end to the demonstrations, both sides. The first and initial confrontation between uniformed security police and the protesters will show them engaging with both sides. While the protesters who were taking the government side against the initial civilian protesters will appear to be being imposed upon just as harshly as the anti-government protesters but the reality is the pro-government protesters will shrink back quickly disappearing from the scene while the anti-government protesters have not been let in on the show and will receive the blunt end of government suppression. This low-level police action will last only a few days if that long. As long as their actions do not meet with actual threats of actions taken against Iran, direct actions as they could care less about sanctions, then the protests are doomed. The final stage will be mass arrests, shootings and heavy methods of disruption breaking the will and the spirit of the protesters. Such a put-down of the protests will require a number of days, probably less than a week to a week and a half, will continue with no remorse or limitation growing more violent with each passing day.

 

This will be the sorry state unless there is some direct intervention by the world or some nation capable of intervening and siding with the protesters and bringing down the government and remaining for probably a year or two and assisting keeping the peace until a new government has taken root, a democratically elected government in which everybody is permitted to run for office. There should be elected temporary governance which will draft a Constitution and establish the new governance and its structure then holding another election for a permanent government after the Constitution has been accepted by the people. Within the initial period will be necessitated that the Basij Militia members be sought out and prevented from being a subversive element intending to return the governance to being a religious theocracy. The problem is what nation would be willing and able to intervene and back the protesters demand for a greater voice in their government? The immediate answer is always the same, the United States. Many will claim that President Donald Trump would be ready, willing and able to jump in and take the fight to the Mullahs and bring Iran back within the family of nations. Those would be the words of those believing such is even a possibility. We are really sorry, but it is necessary that we pop your bubble if you are part of the interventionist political group. There is almost no possibility of the United States intervening in Iran short of Iran attacking another nation such as Saudi Arabia or Israel directly. Even with Iran using the Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabia including firing missiles at Riyadh which is the Saudi Arabian capital city and nothing from President Trump or the United States. Even if Hamas in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria were to attack Israel with hundreds or thousands of rockets and missiles there would be no reaction beyond speeches, Tweets and hopefully rearming of Iron Dome intercepting missiles as quickly as possible.

 

President Trump was elected to repair the damages of the last couple of decades since the Gingrich revolution and the Contract with America. His primary objective was the economy which included mostly tax reform and regulation reform. President Trump passed an initial tax reform and reduction legislation and invoked an Executive Order that every cabinet position, with very few exceptions, had to revoke two resolutions for every new resolution they invoke. This would, at the very least, be an incentive to reduce the number of new resolutions any agency would invoke because they would be want to revoke two existing resolutions. Reality be stated, each agency probably has so many redundant resolutions that revoking one of the many would make little if any difference. President Trump also promised to make trading with the rest of the world more equal while assuring the American voters he was not in favor of using the United States military in nation building or interventions in any actions which were not a direct threat to the nation itself. Where the Iran governance could potentially become a large threat to the United States and the world once they become an announced and obvious nuclear-armed nation with thermonuclear weapons, super EMP weapons and the ICBMs with which to launch them to any part of the globe, they are not currently so armed to the best intelligence currently available. Yes, we know we have made exception with the current intelligence and fully believe that Iran is and have been building a nuclear weapons arsenal for the past two decades and now have the missiles required for launching them anywhere on the globe and in numbers sufficient to overcome any current non-space-based interception systems. That possibility is probably included in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) and would be further reason not to intervene with anything in Iran unless it was a full-scale intervention using virtually all weaponry at the military’s disposal. Such an intervention is not likely in the near future unless Iran does an overt act against another nation and not for acts internally. The Iranians will eventually take down the protesters with more than required violence against the protesters using extreme prejudice arresting thousands with many of the leadership taken to Evin Prison where they will face torture and most will never be seen again. It will be another sorry week/month in human history which future generations will be clueless on why no actions were taken, should humanity have that long a future.

 

Frightening Nuclear Proliferation Map

Frightening Nuclear Proliferation Map

 

Between the Iranian Mullah’s religious belief that they are determined by Allah to rule the world and spread Shia Islam to every person on the globe and North Korea eventually overplaying their hand and following through on one of their threats triggering a horrific war or China, Russia, United States or somewhere electing or choosing a ruler who is more mentally unbalanced than any in history starting a conflagration as the extent of nuclear proliferation is about to explode and soon most nations will posses a full range of nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them virtually anywhere, certainly at their neighbors. Life on planet earth is approaching a vital choice where either a new age of cooperation brought on by the acknowledgment that the major powers have developed a space fleet in cooperation with their uniting the world eliminating differences and the imposition of world governance or flying uncontrolled beyond the cusp defined by a nuclear Armageddon and the destruction of all civilization as we know it and pockets of survivors left who after a few generations will have lost the knowledge with which we build the modern world and humanity returns to the stone age. The near future hold unlimited promise and a singular threat of total destruction and the choice will be made by the most powerful nations who at some point may have to choose between total and complete destruction of an area of the planet turning it into a wasteland for thousand years or more in order to save the remainder of the world for the future. Will the leaders who eventually face this choice have the nerve to make that choice or will they leave humanity’s future up to a far more perilous set of events. May we live to see the resultant earth from such decision or better yet, may that choice never be required.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 8, 2017

Coming American Foreign Policy Challenges and One Done Right

 

We may as well start by talking briefly about the one area that the United States has started addressing and thus far has taken the proper and righteous approach. Contrary to what many have claimed, President Trump had begun to implement a Syria strategy. The first, and thus far, primary step has been to work to show that the United States has a group they are willing to stand with and are going to protect. They have made this statement boldly and sent a message to President Erdogan of Turkey that the Kurds are to be left alone. No longer will his indiscriminate attacks by air and land against the Kurds be tolerated and if President Erdogan desires to join the fight in Syria, then it will be against the Islamic State like he has told the world he was fighting and not against the Kurds who was who he was really fighting. The green and gold banner of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia and the colors of the United States were noticeable as they flew side-by-side in northern Syria for the first time. The images of Army Strykers and YPG vehicles rolling in Kurdish territories in Syria flooded social media and is intended to send a hands-off message to Turkish forces and to President Erdogan in Ankara. The YPG Militias are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces that the United States has been backing through arming them and now is showing a more active support. In the Washington Times Erdogan was quoted saying on Sunday that he vowed to carry out more strikes against Kurdish targets in northern Syria, telling reporters in Istanbul he was “saddened” by the images of the American and YPG flags flying in tandem. He impressed that this would be a major issue at his scheduled May meeting with President Trump in mid-May. We hope President Erdogan is prepared to be disappointed.

 

United States Armored Troops Move into Kurdish Areas of Syria

United States Armored Troops Move into Kurdish Areas of Syria

 

More news on the Syrian front comes as the White House has called for making areas safe-zones complete with enforced “No-fly zones” in place. President Trump spoke at length with Russian President Putin and it was reported that the talks were productive and the two men appear to have found some common middle ground. It is expected that Turkey’s President Erdogan will oppose any no-fly zones or safe zones that include Kurdish held ground as President Erdogan has sworn to wipe the Kurdish people from the map as he sees them as no different than the Ottomans viewed the Armenian and he desires applying the same solution. Should Presidents Putin and Trump reach an accord on these safe zones and no-fly zones and mutually enforce such, then Erdogan would prove to be a mad-man should he decide to test the resolve of Russia and the United States. Still, we suspect that he will test the American resolve at least twice and once he loses some of his aircraft will he finally return to Turkey and resign that he will not reach his envisioned “Greater Turkey” (see map below). Meanwhile, despite the fact that Syrian Dictator Bashir al-Assad would dearly love to see the Kurds crushed, he shares with Erdogan their mutual hatred of the Kurds viewing them as less Muslim than their own people, the Alawites for Assad and the Turks for Erdogan. As far as the Russians are concerned, as the Kurds have mostly just protected their own spaces and not attacked anyone other than the Islamic State, they are not posing any direct threat to Russia or Assad in their eyes. This will likely lead Putin to allow the Kurdish areas to be designated safe zones and placed under a no-fly order, which would fall to the United States to enforce. President Trump can expect Erdogan to attempt to disallow American aircraft from the base in Turkey to be utilized for this purpose. President Trump could then use an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean Sea off of Syria or Israel, secretly use an Israel airfield, or ignore Erdogan and test his resolve. Erdogan just might be the fool enough to test President Trump by taking measures against American forced in Turkey thus potentially making Turkey the test case for what happens to people who test a commitment by President Trump. We figure such would be a very risky move with terrible consequences, but Erdogan believes that the United States is still under weak leadership as the American media have portrayed President Trump with their constant questioning and belittling his every move. This could have horrible consequences.

 

Greater Turkey

Greater Turkey

 

There will be two areas where President Trump will face great tests. His being used to business deals where contracts actually mean what the two sides intend to commit to is quite different than when dealing with rogue regimes. President Erdogan will simply be an introductory course in the art of international miscreants. There will be little learned here as this will be reminiscent of President Trump’s days growing up in a rough and tumble New York neighborhood where deeds were the real rest and talk often could substitute for deeds until somebody called you on your words and you needed to then prove your mettle. The real test will come from North Korea and the Palestinian Arabs. Both Kim Jong Un and Mahmoud Abbas have the same record in observing and keeping promises made in agreements, none. Both men will sign agreements, demand the other side meet all obligations and then refute that any demands or promises were made by their side and renege on everything upon which they had agreed. This defaulting by them has no bearing on their demands that everyone else meet the terms of that very agreement. This is the kind of dealing which gets one a bad name in business dealings but is not so uncommon in international affairs. The dictatorial and rogue states are well versed in double-dealing and will not feign from taking affront at others’ comments about them while dispensing insults as if they were candy at a children’s birthday party. This may be something Trump needs to realize that there is no arbitration between nations and the only means of enforcing agreements is through coercion, threat or actual use of force. Where this may be undesirable, it is still a necessary lesson that such is the way of the world and things are far from ideal.

 

Kim Jong Un and Mahmoud Abbas

Kim Jong Un and Mahmoud Abbas

 

The first installment of this message came fast and furious from the Palestinian Authority (PA) this week. While President Trump lauded Mahmoud Abbas for promising to end the payments to terrorists and their families commensurate on the numbers of Israelis the murdered and injured including those in prison in Israel, Mahmoud Abbas and nearly the entirety of the PA hierarchy upon Abbas returning came out in force to deny that any such promise had passed his lips. They also pointed out that such payments were a central tenet of their government and would continue. We guess the good news is that at least they did not announce an increase in these payments. This comes atop news that President Trump promised the PA additional funds and we can only hope that these funds are now prevented in response to the announced continuing for using such funds to reward terrorism directly, a definitive form of incitement if ever there was one. The unilateral PA announcement that funds will continue to be used to pay terrorists benefits commensurate with people murdered and maimed should be used by Congress, if the President does not take the initiative, as the reason to end all United States aid to the PA and to UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East). The additional reason for including UNRWA is the curriculum, which is full of terror incitement and terrorist glorification throughout their schoolbooks and enforced further by employing Hamas members as teachers and administrators in Gaza and PA appointees in similar positions in Judea and Samaria. Their teaching incitement and aggrandizement of terrorism is reason enough under stipulations already in place to end funding to all entities involved. This is but the first test from these two fronts.

 

President Trump will need to understand the duplicitous dealings from these actors before dealing with Iran who proved to have taken President Obama to the cleaners. The fact is President Obama desired just such an end and actually led the parade with the part of class clown aptly played by Secretary of State John Kerry. The fact that Secretary Kerry was actually attempting to please his boss and attempting to do as best as he could only added to the shame heaped on the United States by the Nuclear Deal with Iran. Making matters even worse was the fact that Iran wrote up the agreement they were to make in Farsi which nobody at the State Department or Defense Department ever translated or checked to verify it concurred at least with the European or Russian versions, we already knew the United States version was for domestic use only and that everyone had their own version, this deal was a farce in action. When the news broke that the United States version given to the media did not jibe with either the Russian or the European versions, the Russian and European versions at least matched fairly well and were likely the sole true representation of the actual agreement, the media reported on that for two days never quite detailing the differences and then the Iran deal became old news seldom to be mentioned again until the campaign and Trump using it as a campaign point. Such a fiasco can and must never be permitted again in the future and any and all translations need be vetted for reality and matching the actual points as agreed upon, otherwise we are allowing each member to write and sign their own version of reality and everybody leaves with copies of a treaty which do not match one-another and everyone just then does what they decide is best and no real treaty exists.

 

Kin Jong Un is also delusional, megalomaniacal, and dangerously paranoid. This is not a healthy combination when it comes to world leaders of nations, especially nations on the verge of having warhead size thermonuclear weapons and the ICBM’s on which to place them threatening the entirety of the globe. The entire population of North Korea have been raised and actually believe that when their country fails, that is when, not if, that the entire globe will also be failing as everywhere is just like North Korea. The reality is except for Venezuela of late, the rest of the globe is doing much better than North Korea which is an even more dysfunctional state than Hamastan in Gaza, the PA in Judea and Samaria and possible on par, without the warfare, with Syria. The people are close to starving as a rule of life, there is little relief in sight but they honestly believe that should North Korea fail by war, starvation or plague, then the entirety of the globe must fail with them. This is how they are educated from infancy through into the military if they are fortunate as the military at least can afford food and shelter. Kim Jong Un lives like a king and his top people, military commanders live well, and he is only shown small areas of the capital of Pyongyang where his leadership live in relative comfort with ample housing. The distressing poverty of the country is kept from his eyes as should he realize the mismanagement, nobody can predict how many and whom he would have executed as responsible. As he has had an uncle executed for speaking sharply to him, executed a general for treason with little evidence and even less of a trial and his half brother assassinated sending a hit squad to another nation to murder him, Kim Jong Un has earned his credentials as unstable. How to make such a person hold to a treaty or anything resembling sanity is the question. Strangling him through embargoes may be all it would take for him to initiate nuclear Armageddon.

 

As if Erdogan, Kim Jong Un, Hamas, the PA, Islamic State and Bashir al-Assad was not enough facing President Trump plus a roguish President Putin with his exploits, there is one last madman backed by a regime of madmen, Iran. Their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei (Persian: سید علی حسینی خامنه‌ای‎‎) believes that he speaks with and for Allah and Muhammad here on earth. He is to be the leader to prepare all Islam for the coming of the Mahdi, the Twelfth Imam who has been in hiding for near on nine-hundred years. His return is to be some mythically magical event and a highway has been built from the perceived well in Qom to the center of the capital of Iran, Yehran, where he will be welcomed by the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts and others from the religious heirarchy in Iran. Iran had two independent militaries with seperate lines of command and sets of orders. The Iranian military is a normative military which is tasked with protection of the nation from all external enemies. The IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) is responsible for activities outside the nation and national security within the nations including the religious police. They are responsible for providing troops and weaponry for the efforts in Syria, for Hezballah in Lebanon, occasionally for arming, training and providing rocket technology to Hamas in Gaza, running and securing the training camps in the Tri-Border region in South America. The Tri-Border Region (see map and picture below) is an area on the borders of Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil and an area where all three national police and militaries refuse to interfere. It was from these camps that the terror squads, which carried out the bombings on Israeli and Jewish targets in Buenos Aires, were carried out. This has been an IRGC and Hezballah training paradise since the mid 1970’s and has faced little to no interference largely because it is almost as well armed as any force that might be sent to face them in the surrounding jungles. This is the reach available to the IRGC who are in close operational interconnectivity with Hezballah as both serve Iran as foreign contingents. The advantage of the IRGC working with Hezballah is that through such affiliation they provide Iran with sufficient separation to have plausible deniability. Never suspect that Iran does not know how to play political games, remember that it was the Persians who invented the game of chess.

 

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as he is oft referred in the international media, knows well the art of warfare by other means. He appears to be versed in Sun Tzu and the other writers on warfare. He uses words for weapons and assassins when required to strike where he desires. His rule is absolute and as such he has grown accustom to things as he prefers to see them and his subordinates dare not fall short in their assigned tasks. The power structure in Iran follows a duality just as does the military. The Iranians have two main targets, the United States and the Zionist Entity, as they refer to Israel. Together these two make up the Great Satan, United States, and the Little Satan, Israel. Israel is privileged in this world as unlike the United States that only need worry about the Iranian Army and the IRGC military, Israel gets to have an addition to these two adversaries, the al-Quds force, named for the Arab name for Jerusalem. The al-Quds force is responsible directly for the reconquest of Jerusalem primarily and secondarily for the complete destruction of Israel and the death of the Jews, that is all Jews. The al-Quds force is a special group of squads who are selected from the Special Forces groups within the IRGC, which is considered the Special Forces taken from within the military ranks rated on their military prowess and their religious purity. The entirety of the IRGC is religious warriors modeled on the Persian Immortals from history and the al-Quds would then be the Hashshashins, a select group willing to fight to the death without a second thought. Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a person not used to being denied that which he desires. Still, he commands the respect that one will speak only truthfully when answering his questions. This does not mean you will be well received or even survive the telling, but if you are caught in a lie, things will go even worse for you. Torture is a tool in Iran as it is in the PA, Hamastan and North Korea as well as more of the world than most would like to believe. Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei truly believes that his position will welcome the coming of the final days and be at the center of the world once it has been transformed. He realizes he might not be alive to see this day but that whoever fills the role of Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah must be prepared to take on this mantle at any moment. They will be the leader of the conquering forces, which will subdue the world and bring everybody to Islam as they believe. They honestly believe that the Shiites, who are approximately ten percent of Muslims, will win out as the preferred of Allah instead of being murdered as Apostates under a world ruled by Sunni Islam.

 

These are simply the initial individuals who often define the world as they wish it to be and then act from there. The one thing all these leaders and their followers have in common is that they believe they are the rightful and powerful on the world’s stage, and that the United States can be easily defeated and they know exactly how to proceed to do so. They all believe their country to be one of the major forces in the world or a member of what will be the ruling force in the end when everything is settled. They all believe that the world can be brought under the rule of a single individual and that they are the one. (This is where normally we would have to say, “Zathros know, you are not the one, Zathros can tell.” One need remember the show Babylon V to understand or recognize this.) The Western World has reached the decision that the world cannot be conquered and placed under a single leader. They also believe that this is intuitively obvious and that everyone can see that world conquest is a pipe dream that cannot be accomplished. All this means is that they will never rule the world but it does not mean that there are no longer people out in the world willing to try. One might remember in the early days of the Islamic State when, as ISIS, their forces of terrorists were taking uncontested ground and destroying all they could find including irreplaceable artifacts and treasures and their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was declaring himself Caliph and announcing how the ISIS fighters (terror forces) were going to conquer the world for Allah and convert or murder all unbelievers and simply murder all apostates. Their initial run was impressive until the clash with the Kurds and was bloodied. There went their invincibility, from there the Iraqis contained them, and they stalled out completely. The point was that al-Baghdadi with a few thousand fighters, many not well trained or untrained, still believed that ruling the world was possible. Turkey’s President Erdogan sees himself as the Caliph ruling over the same areas as once made up the Ottoman Empire, which started as a single tribe in Turkey that set out to conquer the world. President Erdogan sees himself as the one to reestablish the Turkish-Ottoman Empire with himself as the central Caliph. It is time that the Europeans woke up and smelled the threats at their doorsteps and their own self-made weakness and how dangerously unprepared they have become for their own defense. They have at most a decade before such might becomes necessary and already it appears that Germany, if they remain with Merkel and France after electing Macron, have simply surrendered to their conquerors. President Trump needs to awaken a sleeping world to the onrushing dangers before the onrushing dangers reach their shores and announce themselves formally. Thus far, the violence has been sporadic and disorganized. That will not remain the case and the time is drawing nigh with not a lot of time to turn Europe around and prepared to fight to save their way of life and their liberated lifestyles. President Trump may have been elected at a crucial time but it will be the two Presidents that follow Trump who will really be inheriting the whirlwind. Inbetween, we will see broken promises strewn as windblown autumn leaves.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 15, 2016

Trump Trial by Fire Revving Up

 

Donald Trump has barely had the votes counted and has yet to even been elected officially into the office by the Electoral College, let alone been sworn in and the tests he will be facing from day-one onward are already manifesting themselves. In a fair and basically sane world an incoming President elect could expect the current administration to work with their transition team and address the most threatening and serious problems in order to maintain a smoother transition of power. That is very unlikely to be what we will be witnessing. President elect Trump can fully expect that in its final two and a half months in office that President Obama and his top cabinet officials and others in his administration will be want to raise a finger to remedy any situation. Instead we can expect inaction at best and complete failure to resist or hold any ground with withdrawals seemingly so poorly planned as to give the appearance of having been routed and lost all nerve to stand to defend any position anywhere. The announced suspension of routine services by the United States Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan in response to increasing terror threats as a “temporary precautionary measure” will set the pattern for the remainder of the time until the Inauguration in late January of 2017. These partial and potential complete closures of embassies, consulates, smaller military instillations and virtually anywhere that American foreign based personnel even hear a loud “Boo!” in the night will simply make hitting the ground running impossible as much of the advanced frameworks will need extensive re-manning and rebuilding before they will even return to normal operations, let alone execute any needed actions.

 

This should be no surprise as it has been the modus operandi of the entire Obama eight years in the Presidency. We witnessed this with the immediate pull down and collapse of everything accomplished in Iraq, the debacle which was Libya, the response when bluff was called by Bashir al-Assad in Syria as well as reactions to Syria generally, the lack of coordination within NATO to the obvious infiltration of Europe and starting in the United States with embedded terror forces included as a fair percentage of the “refugees” allowed to enter in torrents. This resulted in waves of unvetted and unchecked immigrants against any terror watch lists. We saw it as the response to the situation in Benghazi which cost the lives of Ambassador to Libya John Christopher “Chris” Stevens and four others (pictures below) left unaided and alone to fight a hopeless battle holding on desperately waiting for the cavalry to ride over the hill and rescue them, but the cavalry was never even permitted to try. The assault on the Benghazi Consulate and Safe House will be recorded by history as an embarrassment not of Embassy staff or the meager security attachment as Former Navy Seals Tyrone S. Woods and Glen Doherty put up a resistive fight holding a surrounded position under both direct and indirect fire for up to eight hours through the night before succumbing to a withering mortar barrage backed by significant RPG fire coordinated on their position all but destroying the entire structure. Theirs was a herculean and heroic stand which deserved being rescued and given, at a minimum, air support from the Mediterranean Fleet or any of numerous United States military operation throughout Europe. The abandonment of these four individuals was an unconscionable act of pure cowardliness and dereliction of duty on both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her superior, President Barack Hussein Obama. This will also be the model for any coming security threat, pull out all unessential personnel or even simply flee completely leaving everything behind, even those printouts with a large letter ‘C’ in the top corner classifying the document as sensitive information contained within. There will be no holding of ground between now and the inauguration under the guise, the excuse, of not wishing to establish policies and impose them on the incoming President though that is exactly what they are doing, imposing a policy of tucking tail between legs and scampering away and never fight any day.

 

Ambassador John Christopher Stevens and Information Officer Sean Smith Former Navy Seals Tyrone S. Woods and Glen Doherty

Ambassador John Christopher Stevens and Information Officer Sean Smith
Former Navy Seals Tyrone S. Woods and Glen Doherty

 

Meanwhile, as the enemies and others seeking to make threats and force the hand of the United States into complete routing before even the slightest of offensive gestures will be gaining more and more courage as these cowardly tepid responses at best and flight responses at worst become more and more evident as an actual policy. This will place incoming President Trump in a tighter spot than was necessary, but that is the whole idea. When your rules of engagement (ROE) read something along the lines of when facing any threat to security or personnel, at all costs do not discharge weapons as this may provoke a situation. The proper response is to hastily pack your personal belongings and any pictures adorning your cubicle or office, grab your awards and then make all haste to departing vehicles and depart. Those with weapons and charged to guard the building and personnel should depart last as once the people have left the building, why guard the building. Any classified State Department documents inside have likely already been pilfered from selected computer systems within the State Department which were cracked way back during a previous Secretary of State whose computers in her basement or wherever fed on the darkest recesses of the State Department and who knows where else, the White House, Pentagon, Joint Chiefs of Staff and even NORAD central command. Whatever was left behind is not worth defending as it is only information which has reached around the world twice over after being hacked. The new mission statement for overseas personnel is please do not make waves or cause a need for anybody to make a stand or protect anything as if it has value, just stay out of the way and maybe the President will get out of Washington D.C. without any further legacy, oh, wait, we mean damage, not necessarily legacy, that would have been mean spirited and we are supposed to be magnanimous because, hey, anybody remember why we’re supposed to be magnanimous? Well, somebody suggested we be nicer from now on and we promised, well, promised absolutely nothing of the kind, we will remain the mean-spirited skeptics we’ve always been. As the saying goes, “It’s worked this far, why change now?”

 

These actions of retreat first will collectively be one item which will have a definite and hard-hitting effect on the incoming administration as well as on President Trump. Hopefully the damage can be mitigated and a reversal can be implemented. Such a policy directive on day one or two can prevent further damage and should Trump manage to have any input before being sworn in, this should be high on the priority list as it will parallel with his intent to restore military funding and strengthen American forces making them more readily deployed. Trump would be advised to have ready to submit to the Senate an entire list of Ambassadors, chiefs of operations where the position is an appointee, any changes to the General Staff and other high ranking military positions, placement of ranking and overseeing staff for intelligence gathering and making the President’s daily briefings and all the major cabinet and other positions such as Attorney General. President Trump should also announce the name of the person to fill the Supreme Court vacancy caused by the unfortunate and untimely passing of Antonin Scalia and pass it along to the Senate. These items need to be a top priority and Trump needs to find where to strike the balance between established political entities and bringing in people from the private sector in order to make the changes promised and run the government as a profit making entity as far as productivity and strict budgeting. Granted, we understand that President Trump is somewhat stuck with the budget as it has already been laid out and approved but that does not mean that this is a completed job. Just sticking to the budget as written will be sufficient challenge. That said, President Trump’s first major hurdle where the bar could be raised higher than desired will be the next yearly budget and though it is not necessary to get approval until the fall, starting to propose and work with Congress as soon as possible will pay off in that the excessive lead time will permit using the secret weapon possessed by this administration, the people who voted for change.

 

Donald Trump’s Presidency may require utilizing the public pressure method of pressing Congress to ally with the President’s efforts. President Trump might consider making prime time (6:00 PM on the West Coast) addresses to the nation every three weeks or even more frequently and lay out his plans on what need be accomplished in the ensuing period. A President Trump should announce appointments he feels are necessary and explain who and what each appointee brings to the table. Such announcements will work best for those people Trump can convince to take the bite of a huge drop of income and placing their investments with a trusted investment agent who manages their financial affairs while they serve the people and the President. These actual civilians who are not beholden to any party or lobbying groups will be the greatest tool that Trump will be able to pursue and we hope he succeeds in getting those people he most desires and trusts. Vice President elect Mike Pence is going to be an indispensable assistant and advisor on who from amongst the political community can be trusted to perform in a position serving to cut waste and trim the budget with skill and ample enthusiasm. People brought from the business world already understand the idea of getting the most possible for the least treasure spent, allocated rather than the spend as much as possible so we can demand even more next year in order to finally take a stab at last year’s set goals. Trimming the government does not mean less services for the population, it means doing more with fewer employees and having only one team of four people to present a simple report instead of eight teams of five people and a committee to hear all the proposals and choose which three get to spend yet another year working on the project before the final team is selected and then set off to start from the beginning because objectives changed over the two and a half years it took to get this far. That is much of the current system which produces some of the greatest boondoggles known to mankind; oh, sorry, not mankind, peoplehood, that’s the word from the newspeak dictionary of double-plus good and approved words.

 

There is one set of events which are seldom talked of but which can break a President and fill them with such dread that they are reduced to inaction. These are the briefings from Military Intelligence, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Joint Chiefs of Staff and an alphabet soup of agencies and departments we have and never will hear about that exist in the darkest crevices of the world and country. An incoming President earns one-third of their grey hairs on these first days and the briefings they receive. A few weeks or even months the President will awaken sweat pouring off his body, eyes fluttering, breathing hard and unable to speak immediately. Once relatively composed he tells his wife to go back to sleep, it’s nothing and then goes to his study in the White House and grabs the secure phone and sets up meetings for 6 A.M. and everybody better be there and be sharp. Then the President will demand an update on what was first discussed right during that first week where everything was a whirlwind and the memories are blurred some. The President will know it is important when Generals and other advisors are made to leave the briefing due to not having ample clearances. These are the briefings we the people will never learn about but are behind a rare few of the conspiracy, world is about to end, martial law is coming lunatic fringe stories. That’s right, there are little grains of truth the size of a grain of sand within that gallon can of end of the world stories. The secret is finding that little grain and combining it with other grains of sand plucked from an hourglass, just one grain, and from a sandbox around the corner, another single grain and then there are many along the beach, the trick is knowing which grain and where it fits in the great sculpture which nobody has ever viewed the entirety all at once. There are those working on the knee joint, another on the big toe and yet another the parting of the hair but all except three never see beyond where their piece is to fit, the three seeing it all are the appointed head of the agency, the head of the entire project and the President, and the President gets to see most of these programs and their designs and this is what ages them, knowing exactly how close the world is to falling beyond the cusp and into the chasm of oblivion. Such knowledge and then watching the insane dancing with nuclear weapon of Kim Jong-Un, the North Korean Dictator and Supreme Leader; the bombastic proclamations for the destruction of America and death of Zionism by the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei of Iran (what is it with this ‘Supreme Leader’ titles?); the madness of island building and militarily arming them to the teeth by Chinese President and an up and coming choice for Paramount Leader (they stress this term should not be translated incorrectly as Supreme Leader, whew, that’s a relief, not!) Xi Jinping, and Bashir al-Assad and Islamic State and Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (isn’t Caliph kind of like supreme leader?) or Putin or who knows who or what else as for all we know there might also be the Supreme Leader Gnodsnarkch who rules the Seven Planets and Three Systems of the Lizard Elites Empire who are negotiating with the leaders, all the other Supreme Leaders of Earth and we expect Presidents not to completely lose it from time to time. The only thing I can think to add is to pat Donald Trump on the shoulder and state, “You’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din!”
full poem Gunga Din by Rudyard Kipling.

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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