Beyond the Cusp

May 12, 2012

Keys to an Obama Victory

Both those who wish to defeat the reelection efforts of President Barack Obama and those who support the effort are both identifying those things which are necessary to reach their objectives. There will be charts made and maps drawn up with colors for Democrat and Republican States and those vitally important Battleground States. Then they will break down even further in order to find the most profitable and beneficial manner to maximize the results. Tables and graphs will break the cultural down by wealth, religiosity, party affiliation, past voting trends, and just about any other differentiation in order to classify each and every one of us into our distinct groups so they can tailor their appeals to fit the residents at which it is aimed. But, is there a simple and basic area which will determine the outcome of this year’s coming Presidential election? We believe there is one and it is easy to qualify though more difficult to quantify.

Every election breaks down into individual voters and swaying more of the voters who support your candidate to come to the polls and vote than voters for the other candidate who do. This election will be taking place in what is probably one of the most divisive environments since the Civil War. Americans are deeply divided between the liberal progressives and the cultural, religious, constitutional, fiscal and other conservatives. Those who are at the farthest edges of this divide are already spoken for as to how they are going to vote. Many are going to tell you that the entire election hinges on that fuzzy group referred to as the swing voters. Well, believe it or not, this is very likely not going to be the determining factor. So, what will decide this election?

The challenge for those wishing to defeat President Barack Obama and his reelection bid will need to find some persuasive arguments to get the most conservative voters to get out and vote. The fiscal and cultural conservatives are likely already on board with the campaign for Mitt Romney. It will be the rest of the different classes of conservatives which will present the challenge for the Romney camp to win and the Obama camp to discourage thus affecting their turnout on Election Day. These voters greatly outnumber the swing voters and are the most crucial to the Romney campaign. The Obama campaign has their constituencies they will need to excite such as the youth vote among others where the support is considered to be soft. The motivation of the soft support is probably going to be less of a problem for the Obama campaign than it currently appears to be for the Romney campaign. Some of this evidential condition is likely going to shrink as it is at its highest currently due to the bitter primary campaigns which recently came to a close. Still, most prognosticators are predicting that the challenge of getting out the vote with those who are not strongly motivated will likely be a larger problem for Romney than it will for Obama. So, how does this turn into the key to an Obama reelection?

Well, the easiest route for President Obama to reelection is through keeping the conservatives weak and emphasizing their doubts about Mitt Romney’s strength of conservative convictions. The Obama camp needs to find disillusioned conservatives to press the problems that some conservatives have and make their reservations into convictions of doubt about Mitt Romney. They will be best served to stress that Obama’s healthcare initiative was taken almost directly from Romney’s Massachusetts Health Insurance initiatives. It does not matter that if one takes the time to honestly compare the two that there are huge differences between the two, what matters is the persistence of the suspicions that Obama used Romney Care as his model. Since when did honesty matter in politics? Stressing any tax increases allowed even if they were forced through by the Democrats while Romney was governor would make one solid wedge issue. To put it in a catchy phrase, the Barack Obama Presidential campaign needs to Massachusetfy Romney thus making his stint as Governor of Massachusetts tied hard and fast to Mitt Romney thus dragging him down to defeat. The problem is that Mitt Romney cannot deny or distance himself sufficiently from his record in Massachusetts and that can be magnified and even distorted forcing a defensive posture on the Romney campaign. This is the route to the reelection of President Barack Obama, plain and simple, well, straight forward at least.

Beyond the Cusp

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