Beyond the Cusp

September 10, 2019

Why Am I not All That Worried?

 

Everyday I hear a similar question in several parts. Perhaps writing articles here at Beyond the Cusp makes them believe I actually know and understands what is going on in the world and especially in Israel. It might also be my record of making predictions which have a great amount of veracity and often coming true almost exactly. Whatever the reason, I realize these questions are posed hoping I can ease their minds or accurately warn them when to start to worry and make plans accordingly. The first part of the question is worded something like, is a war coming in the near term? This is usually followed by asking for clarification as to where. This is when I have had to provide some not so great news. The reason is that Hamas in Gaza in the south has stated that they will join in any war should Israel engage with Hezballah in Lebanon to the north while Hezballah has promised to join any war Israel might engage with Hamas. The answer is it matters little where the next conflict starts, it probably, thanks to orders from Iran, will encompass a two-front war against both Hamas (with Islamic Jihad) in the south and Hezballah in the north. This, fortunately, may not matter for the remainder of this year as my feelings are that there will not be any all-encompassing conflict, or this is my wishful thinking.

 

There have been a slowly increasing escalation from out of Lebanon and Syria where Hezballah and the IRGC are aiding Syrian forces loyal to Bashir al-Assad along with Russian air and defensive support. The escalations by these forces have gone from single or twin drones to a drone swarm and single rockets to multiple rocket launches and the use of guided anti-aircraft missiles against ground vehicles. Hamas in Gaza use rocket launchers, anywhere from two or three to as many as a dozen or two. On both fronts, the Iron Dome has intercepted the majority of these projectiles projected to strike populated regions at an unreal excellence and proficiency. There have been threats made after every exchange with Hezballah always making the claim that Israel started everything and thus they will respond to the Israeli belligerence. The only problem with their claims is that the exchanges are almost if not always initiated by Hezballah or Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Hamas also has their weekly, of more accurately daily, rioting along the border replete with launching of kites, balloons and the occasional drone with explosives and incendiary packages aimed for the destruction of Israel. They love the land so much they are willing to completely destroy everything such that nobody can use the region. These are the situations which many in our circles are concerned about, even to the point where it dominates conversation more than the coming election, but not more than the general banter which makes leaving the house worthwhile.

 

To the best of my discernment, many in our circles are displaying a level of tenseness and apprehension noticeably higher than usual. They claim that my lack of uneasiness with what I write and apparently obsession with the news cycle is unexplainable, even considering that I do not believe a war is inevitable this summer or until late next spring. Tomorrow morning, I fully expect to have this conversation within fifteen minutes of meeting the first of my regular circle leading to the same reaction of head shaking and pressing their feelings of ill-at-ease adding an, are you sure, to the conversation. If I am fortunate, others will not overhear our conversing as that almost inevitably brings others echoing the same questions and disbelief and even some expressing concern for my levels of sanity. I always assure them that I am still as unbalanced as ever. The upside of this tense situation surrounding us guarantees that people will want to converse so they can ask and be reassured that there is nothing coming in the immediate time-frame as none of the enemies of Israel desire having everything they own broken and having to wait for Iran to smuggle in a resupply of the necessary components for their rockets and drones. Outside events often supercharge the conversation and the number of scenarios discussed and presented as reasons why I am confused and unfounded in holding such an optimistic, almost Pollyannaish, attitude regarding the danger level around the threats which are thrown around weekly if not daily some weeks. Between Nasrallah boasting of the competence and preparedness of the Hezballah military units being capable of returning the Galilee to Lebanese control, read as Arab control, from the occupation by the Zionist Entity and Yahya Sinwar who leads Hamas insisting that the Friday (and often other days just peeking on Fridays) rioting will continue until the occupation by the Zionist Entity has been destroyed, we are pretty much guaranteed two to five threats each week depending on the need to distract the people from their poor governance. When one includes spokespersons from Islamic Jihad, commanders of the IRGC, Iran itself and Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of the Palestinian Authority (read PLO) circus all coming at the same demands, that the Jews take their rightful subjugation by their Islamic superiors, we seldom go two days without some threat raising concerns.

 

Hezballah is a terror army with all the abilities of the Lebanese Army in addition to their own forces as two-thirds of the Lebanese Army are members of Hezballah or sympathizers and thus do pose a credible threat. The IRGC is a second military fielded by Iran and are Islamic hardliners with radical beliefs. They are well trained and receive the same if not better equipment than the Iranian Army. This provides them with all the same capabilities as the Iranian Army with the possible restriction of less air support. Add in the Iranian Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei with his and the Iranian fanatics chants each Friday after religious services screaming, “Death to America, Death to Israel,” there is an additional guarantee for my conversation. The way I figure things, if there really was a threat of a war coming in the near period, they would have displayed a far higher rate of increase in the attacks and terrorism. There was the latest attack by Hezballah where they fired anti-aircraft guidable missiles at an IDF base targeting the vehicles and striking a field ambulance which could be claimed was an attempted escalation, almost, as they struck a converted Merkava I battle tank, which are obsolete as a main battle tank but make for a far safer ambulance for the rescue of injured soldiers in an active battle scenario, and claimed they had injured numerous IDF soldiers and claimed possible fatalities. The entire scene at this base was set up with mannequins which were evacuated as if being actual injuries. After Hezballah made their bombastic claims, IDF spokespeople revealed the reality that no Israeli was injured or killed and that the entire exchange was a trap which Hezballah took the bait, hook, line and sinker.

 

Still, the situation which Israel faces on a daily basis is serious and threatening. In the Middle East, threatening is the natural condition, and not just between Israel and her neighbors. Syria is in the midst of a long-running civil war, Iraq is fighting its own Kurdish citizens in the north securing the northern routs for Iran to provide supplies, forces and weaponry for the IRGC, Hezballah and forces fighting supporting Bashir al-Assad, Yemen is in a civil war with the Houthis attempting to overthrow the elected government with Iranian support provided by both the IRGC and Hezballah forces, the Jordanian King is facing the threat of massive unrest from the Arab Palestinians plus all the other conflicts surrounding the MENA nations and the remainder of the world. This is also another reason why I doubt that there will be any conflict this year. Iran is behind almost half of the conflicts in the Middle East. The other violence is mostly Islamic forces attacking those of Animist, Christian or other non-Islamic faith across central Africa in the Transition Zone (see map below). There are also conflicts between India and Pakistan as well as the civil unrest on Mindanao in the Philippines among other regions of strife. With most of the Arab and Islamic world facing internal as well as external conflicts, Israel has become less of an issue throughout their world.

 

African Transition Zone

African Transition Zone

 

This lowering of the level of concern and hatred against Israel as there exists an even more menacing threat, Iran. This has sent Saudi Arabia and many Gulf States to form an almost speaking relationship with Israel. There is far less mention of the Zionist Entity and threats with an exception for the Imams whose entire repertoire consists of hating Israel and Jews. This has caused the uninitiated to express their prediction that Israel will ally with Egypt and Saudi Arabia in order to counter the Iranian threat. Put absolutely no credence in this theme as everything will revert back to hate for the Zionist Entity as soon as Iran ceases to threaten the Sunni Islamic world. Simply put, take Iran out of the equation and the Sunni world will return to their emphasizing the destruction of the Zionist Entity and the return of the region to Arab Islamic rule, their defined norm for not only Israel but to the remainder of the world. Islam has a very simple definition for the world. They divide the world into two camps, Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb; being defined as the world of Islam and the world of war respectively. Making this slightly more complicated, the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims each consider the other to be heretics and thus part of Dar al-Harb. This also explains the high level of animosity between the Sunni Arab states and Shiite Iran. With Iran actively holding heavy sway over Iraq and their total control of Lebanon through Hezballah and Syria where they are assisting al-Assad defeat his opposition for control of Syria; this forms what many refer to as the Shiite Crescent and has all but encircled Saudi Arabia potentially explaining their sudden affections for Israel, the sole military which is capable of restraining Iran from doing whatever they please.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

There is one other reason that we doubt that there will be a war this year, and this includes elections. We can gladly say that the Israeli elections are not the main criteria but the 2020 American elections. Iran is aware that should they be caught pressing for a war anywhere in the Middle East, even Israel, then President Trump would have a free ticket to pose a massive assault on Iran destroying their nuclear program and military ability. As long as after hitting Iran and dealing them a definitive and debilitating strike President Trump departs Iran, then this would leave the rebuilding and possible selecting new governance for the people to do as they see fits them best. Should Iran return to being ruled by a governance nearly identical to their current theocracy, then they would face the same policies from the Trump administration. If the Iranians built a representative governance and called for recognition and relations with the rest of the world, this might be accomplished once their new governance was solidly in place, a constitution or similar document designed and order restored allowing for free and open elections, then perhaps Iran might join the rest of the world. This would require their disbanding the IRGC, ending all support for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah and all other terrorist organizations, ceasing their support and control over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen and liberalizing their civil laws allowing for greater human rights and other freedoms. Then the Middle East could return to their natural positions of complete and total rejection of Israel. This would work to relieve some of the terrorist threats on Israel, but all of them would remain and simply be seeking new backers such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabian entities and other support even to include the European Union, United Nations with accompanying agencies, European nations and others around the world. Things would take a while to settle into whatever the new conditions would become, and things would become more unstable as the terrorist groups would start to compete with one another while seeking funding and support. This would make things unsettled and far more dangerous and quite possibly could press a war with Israel to prove they are the real and true threat to the Jewish State. That is the Middle East, “It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” the description Winston Churchill gave in a radio broadcast in October 1939 talking about the actions the Russians might take in World War II.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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August 27, 2019

Initial Terror Reports Were Frightening

 

Residing in the north of Israel places one thus far outside the ranges of the rockets from Hamas. Living close to the coast makes us less prone to attacks by the Arabs under the Palestinian Authority. So, we should feel safe and outside any real threat. That feeling was shattered this last few days. The initial reports were not all that informative beyond that Iranian forces, the IRGC, had launched a terror attack against northern Israel. There was no specification stating where along the north this attack was launched. The good news was that it had been intercepted by the IDF and the launching point of the drones eradicated. Still, hearing that Iron Dome units had been placed in the north as preparation for this anticipated assault is fine, but were we the target or somewhere else? Well, as with all things, time will tell. Still, hearing about such a threat which had some unthinkable result as several drones laden with explosives was the one clear item we heard the morning after the Sabbath. It was not until several hours later, as everything was slowly coming back into full operation after the Sabbath that we heard that the attack came well east of our town. There is nothing like reports of terror attacks potentially being in one’s area to bring home that everywhere in Israel is within any number of Arab forces sworn to our destruction and the death of as many Israelis as possible. Sobering would be a definitive understatement.

 

One thing many people around the world are often unaware is exactly how small Israel actually is. People we have met believe that Israel is around the size of the average European country while some actually believe that Israel is close to half the size of the United States. The look of disbelief on these people’s faces when they are informed that Israel is approximately the size of New Jersey with a much narrower midsection is priceless. This means that much of Israel is within strike distances from outside her entire perimeter. Hamas can reach over two-thirds of Israel from their Gaza location which is beyond the reach of the IDF without necessitating a full invasion by soldiers as Israel refuses to utilize the tactics used by the United States, Russia and most of the rest of the world where air-power is used to eviscerate any target as well as much of the surrounding region. Israel uses ground forces when it becomes necessary to destroy the Hamas forces, rockets, mortars and other offensive operations and operators. The Palestinian Authority has taken a completely different route to increase their terrorist capabilities. Rather than expend the effort, time and their security forces, they instead pay any terrorist and their family a hefty salary for life for every Israeli they murder. This investment has led to knifing attacks, shootings, car rammings and other forms of attacks which are launched in shopping centers, at bus stops or any other location where a group of people make for ample targets. Even the sole individual is vulnerable as even a single Israeli murdered means that your family will live well into the future. But the real threats come from, you guessed it, the north. That threat is traceable directly back to Iran and takes the form of Hezballah and the IRGC which are spread across southern Lebanon and all across Syria.

 

Four Maps of Great Britain, the United States, Australia, and India with to scale map of Israel super-imposed for comparison on each map depicting her actual rather than perceived size.

Exactly How Small is Israel
A Comparison Against Four
Well Known Countries

 

Hezballah and the IRGC pose such a special threat that they deserve additional comment. Where Hamas is limited to Israel south of Haifa, Hezballah and the IRGC have missiles and rockets which are capable of reaching all of Israel and beyond (see map below). Additionally, these two militaries, and they are both legitimate military terror armies, are backed by Iran and everything they have is stationed from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. This includes ballistic missiles and weapons loaded with anything from nerve agents, biological agents, chemical agents and, once they produce them, assuming they have not already, nuclear warheads. Further, Iran could use any exchange, such as the events over the past weekend, as an excuse for declaring any strike they launch against Israel was in response to any Israeli response to terror assault whether they be rockets launched from neighboring countries, ambushes along their borders, drone attacks such as the recent ones or any interception of terror forces across these borders. Iran has often rattled her sabers after Israeli forces have intercepted across border attacks or struck rocket and artillery platforms used to strike into Israel often launching air to surface missiles from within Israeli airspace across into Syria and Lebanon as necessary. These two armies, IRGC and Hezballah, directly take their orders from Iran and the majority of their attacks are ordered from Tehran. These are just some of the threats which Israel faces, but things will become worse in the not too distant future unless the world awakens to the threats being faced by Western civilization.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

The main step away from Israel which has infected too much of Europe will take root and infect the United States. Anti-Semitism has been increasing at rates formerly believed impossible over the last decade and it promises to accelerate and soon becoming beyond political will to resist the growing hatred. One need simply look at the candidates seeking the Democrat Party candidacy for President in the 2020 elections. Even Joseph Biden was forced to alter his expressing support for Israel making that a minor backside issue in his campaign. The remainder sound more like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib than they do the Democrat Party of our youth. Bernie Sanders holds Israel in the deepest of contempt while defending himself from claims of anti-Semitism claiming he is Jewish and thus cannot be an anti-Semite while his history is replete with statements forsaking anything to do with his birth religion. This is far from unusual for far-left Jews of Western civilization as they defend their anti-Israel positions with the claim that they are Jews while declaring their atheist beliefs forsaking the tenets of Judaism. Their Judaism is nothing other than a shield they wield to deflect criticism of their positions against Israel and Zionism while ignoring every other nationalist movement and government on the globe. Should the Democrat Party continue their slide into anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism and anti-Israeli political positions, when they inevitably resume the handles of power, Israel will find herself cut loose of United States support. That should stand as a double warning, one to Americans and the other to those in power in Israel who will be required to address such an eventuality.

 

Bernie Sanders anti-Israel Support

Bernie Sanders anti-Israel Support

 

Between the terror scare the other morning and watching as the world continues to drift away from Israel, we are concerned as to whether Israeli leadership will make the necessary adaptions to military and political stances and dependencies such that Israel does not end up blindsided when the inevitable comes to pass. The recent Rashid Tlaib and Ilhan Omar fiasco where Israel exercised the right of any nation to prevent those who work for their destruction from entering their borders, as the United States did with an Israeli Knesset Minister Michael Ben-Ari, laid a spotlight upon exactly which politicians from both parties upon which they can trust. It also was eye-opening, and not exactly a pleasant one. Israel will be required to be the sole source for whatever may be her military weaponry and other systems as well as facing the potential that she will become the outcast of the entire world with perhaps a dozen exceptions at best. This might go so far as to include agricultural requirements for feeding all Israelis, Arab, European, Asian, from the Americas as well as Jews, Christians, Muslims and every other person residing within her borders not to mention virtually every other need or requirement for a healthy and content society. Between Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezballah and the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon all taking orders from Tehran and Iran also making threats against Israel (as well as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others), the possibilities for a multi-front war with Israel facing rocket and missile attacks from the north and south, terrorist tunnels on both fronts if they have not all been detected, across border infiltrations, drone attacks at both fronts and possible military attacks complete with armor and air support from out of Lebanon and Syria plus potential assault and launchings out of the Sinai Peninsula, a hot bed of terrorist groups, Israel could face what will amount to an existential threat to her existence.

 

There is another item we used to hear when back living in the United States coming from people who otherwise supported Israel was that they never would stand for American forces to be used in defending Israel. Some who did not like Israel were somewhat more direct claiming that they would not stomach American boys and girls having their lives placed in jeopardy over a nation of Jews. Well, allow us to place these fears to rest, Israelis refuse outright and definitively do not desire for any troops from another nation to come and fight and possibly die fighting for Israel. We are totally aware that there is no faster means of losing what support Israel has with any nation than to have their young people returning in caskets because they were helping Israel defend herself. Should there be those, like Colonel Mickey Marcus who fought with the Israelis defeating largely the Arab attempt to destroy the nascent state of Israel in the 1848 War, who choose to put on an IDF uniform and fight under their own choice and not as a foreign soldier, that is an entirely different situation. Would we expect to hear pushback should any of these volunteers die, most certainly as we expect pushback over virtually any and every act taken by our government (should we ever elect a new one), military and even our relief efforts in natural disaster regions. Hey, we’re Israel, the Jew amongst the nation, we never expected anything different. Still, Israel will hopefully do whatever she is required to do to protect her people and defend her lands. Our wish is for the world to finally make good on the promises made after World War I and allow us our full borders as laid out in the Mandate System and presumably protected under Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and enforceable by the United States under the Anglo-American Treaty and by Britain, Italy, France, Russia and Japan as signatories of the San Remo Conference, the Treaty of Sèvres and numerous other agreement, treaties, accords and conferences all which referred to promises made under the auspices of the League of Nations and the Allied Powers from World War I. We do not require the world to love us, like us, approve of us or do much which would show us favor and acceptance, but we will eventually, preferably sooner rather than later, insist that promises made by the unanimous vote at the League of Nations be finally honored and once our borders have met these guidelines set out now approaching a century past, leave us in peace and we will share with the world our discoveries, new technologies, computing advances, medical cures and treatments, agricultural methods, clean water technology, communications technology, security and other software, advances in physics and virtually everything else all without attempting to be moralistic. Friendship with other nations will always be preferred, but respect has to be the minimum, and that minimum is one thing which Israel can demand as she is entitled to at least that modicum of respect, just as is every other nation.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 25, 2019

Proportionality in War a Losing Proposition

 

There is one particular word which the leftists, Arabists, terrorist leaders, BDS advocates and the rest of the destroy Israel groups love to pull from their bag and berate Israel for winning, Proportionality is its name. There is one area where Jews have more diverse and deep knowledge than most modern nations, and that is war. This is not because the Jews started all the wars throughout history. It is because the Jews, no matter what nation they resided within, would volunteer to fight in wars to protect their homeland even though that homeland was not Jewish but because it was where they resided and they appreciated being accepted. The one item which has been consistent in warfare until extremely recently was that there was nothing to be gained by proportionality and ensuring that your side and your enemies both suffer similar losses. Here is a little secret, that is not the formula for winning a war. The formula for winning a war is to force disproportional losses upon your enemy while minimizing your own losses. So, from where does this idea that the IDF soldiers must ensure proportionality in every engagement?

 

Unfortunately, the idea of proportionality is a direct result of the IDF view of conducting any conflict whereby the IDF is utilized in ways by which the numbers of civilian casualties are kept to a minimum. The various wars with Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror organizations are where these terror fighters tend to hide behind crowds of civilians, use children as chest protectors and fire rockets and mortars from atop schools, hospitals, mosques, and residential blocks of apartments. The one place where these attacks are never fired from are the neighborhoods where the terror leaders reside in nice homes near a modern mall and numerous restaurants. They make sure to preserve their lives while victimizing their own people and their safety. The terror forces of Hamas and Islamic Jihad see the deaths of Palestinian Arabs as a win-win situation as they can display these corpses as murdered by the IDF regardless of their being placed in harm’s way by their own government forces. Should a terrorist be killed, remove their rifle, their spare ammunition magazines, grenades and other weaponry or markers and instantly there is another civilian murdered. Further, if it can be shown that the IDF efforts killed more Gazans than Israelis killed by the terrorists, this is where Proportionality comes into play. Many of the countries from whence these demands for proportionality be practiced by Israel are themselves not obeying the concept of proportionality when their nation is in the field of battle. The United States and Britain are two of the nations for whom proportionality is great for thee but not for me. The CBS News report spells out plainly that the allied forces in Afghanistan efforts resulted in a greater number of civilian deaths and injuries than the Taliban during the same period. While the United States, predominantly, was singled out for the largest share of blame, there still was no call for proportionality. Often, whenever the term proportionality is pulled out, it is done to paint Israel into a corner and to threaten the young IDF soldiers with charges of war crimes in the hope that when that split second decision comes, the IDF soldier will think longer as to whether to shoot and thus the result is the Israelis will face far higher casualties. Of course, this is the aim of this insipid and morose game, to murder Israelis, or simply put, murder Jews.

 

General Patton was quoted in a movie about World War II stating, “No dumb bastard ever won a war by going out and dying for his country. He won it by making some other dumb bastard die for his country.” Under such advice, there could not be any belief that General George Patton would have ever supported proportionality, he supported victory, complete victory. Bringing this closer to home, allow us to quote Azzam Pasha immediately before the dawn assault upon Israel on May 15, 1948, the very morning Israel was brought into being. He stated that the next morning was to bring an assault with an intent best described so succinctly by Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League at that time, who stated, “It will be a war of annihilation. It will be a momentous massacre in history that will be talked about like the massacres of the Mongols or the Crusades.” This was what was intended by the six Arab armies from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan which were perched on every border just awaiting the command. We fail to note any attempts at proportionality in the Arab intent the very morning Israel first breathed air in her own lands. But the Arabs forces are never required to consider proportionality when killing Israelis, or as they look at it, killing Jews. The Arab and Islamic forces which have intent of destroying Israel are permitted to use any amount of disproportional force to wipe Israel off the map while Israel must be mindful of proportionality. This will be spread to Europe and eventually the United States as the Islamic world continues to spread across the globe in another attempt to bring the world under Islam.

 

Quoting President Trump as reported by CNBC, the President has made a concession which could come back down the road to hamstring American military forces. President Trump claimed foolishly that he called off the attack on Iran after their downing a multi-million-dollar United States surveillance drone Tweeting, “We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die,” Trump wrote. “150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not […] proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world.” This sets a very dangerous and impossible standard for the United States military to meet and with President Trump bringing proportionality into the discussion, it will only hurt American and allied forces. There do exist ideals which one hopes their military can live up to and standards which they are required to live up to and these must be kept separate. The ideals you teach the troops as guidelines for ethical behavior and the troops are to bear these in mind when engaging an enemy. These ideals are not to be advertised to the world as they place troops in less favorable positions when engaging on the field of battle. Then there are standards which every soldier is expected to obey and use as guides for all actions on the field of battle. Standards can be shared as these should be the rules by which every military practice in warfare. Unfortunately, when your enemies hold to a different set of moral codes, then there will be no reciprocity and these restrictions then only serve to restrict one side. This will be the same once again as the War in the Pacific where prisoners of war held by the Japanese were often mistreated, malnourished denied religious observance and even marched to death by the Japanese as well as torture used as a means of forcing compliance. Japanese prisoners were fed the same as the allied troops, had their own areas with a bed (cot) and small chest where they could keep any belongings and they were permitted to pray as they saw fit. Any coming war with Islamic forces will have consequences and disproportionate rules of engagement where all attempts will be made to force proportionality upon the Western forces as theirs are moral based armies who rely on superior firepower and technology for their upper hand while the Islamic forces will be living as best they are able to the description of what was given above by Azzam Pasha.

 

The problem is that most of the Western World will now actually attempt to fight a proportionate war simply because they desire to meet the highest possible standards in their troops and methods of engagement. While we saw much of the Islamic concept of warfare where all is fair in war, we are not sure about love as none will be forthcoming to the United States or Israel in the coming fight for control of Europe, Middle East, Northern Africa and the Americas, all of which are fronts which Iran expects to dominate. Thus far, Iran has walked casually across Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon without a single complaint by the United Nations and the world. Israel, on the other hand, has received several rebuts for attacking Iranian forces, be they IRGC, Hezballah or Iranian military forces when they launched upon Israeli forces and civilian towns. The math makes everything become so painfully obvious as to how the United Nations reacts to legitimate efforts by Israel, the United States and others when their efforts bring them into conflict with Islamic forces. In the United Nations there are over twenty Arab States and an additional thirty-five Islamic nations and finally the NAM group (Non-Aligned Movement) which itself has one-hundred-twenty member states in and of itself allowing for these allied groups to rule virtually every United Nations Agency, the General Assembly and should the United States decide to no longer protect Israel in the Security Council, these allied forces will be able to bring the weight of the world down on Israel simply because it is hated and the United States because, well, they are too powerful and require being brought down low so the rest of the world can overtake her.

 

The apparent coming war which will begin in the Middle East will be fought on Iranian terms as the United States, specifically due to President Trump not desiring to initiate any conflict, thus leaving the initial launching of hostilities to be at the behest of Iran. The questions surrounding what Iran decides will be their initial offensive moves. There is one item which is all but guaranteed is that Hezballah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the IRGC forces in Syria will launch literally thousands of rockets and missiles against Israel. Whether this will be the entirety of the initial Iranian assault will also be determined by Iran. The question is will any nations support Israel or will she be left to fight completely on her own. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezballah, an Iranian armed and supported terrorist army which controls all of southern Lebanon and used by Iran in Syria and Yemen, has promised that his armaments are capable of striking all of Israel which he states will be the destruction of the Jewish State. Nasrallah has stated that should the United States and Iran enter into a conflict; this would be the sign which would allow his army to launch rockets on Israel for as long as they are capable. With Hezballah having over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes, ranges and warheads, their intent will be to launch as many of these armaments as rapidly as they are capable upon the major cities and other vital targets. Nasrallah bragged that Hezballah used to be capable of striking barely south of Haifa can now strike targets even beyond Eilat, the southernmost Israeli city. There was one item in his speech which was almost comforting as he stated that they were not intending to begin such a conflict immediately. Still, such is not all that comforting as should Iran order their terrorists to strike and attempt to destroy Israel, they will obey their orders leading to Israel facing a war on at least two fronts, Hezballah from southern Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacking from Gaza and combined forces engaging Israel from southwestern Syria. These forces have already launched rockets and drones into Israel bringing Israeli responses to bring these attacks to a close, but these are nothing compared to what the Iranian allies are capable of using.

 

Then there is the final threat to Israel and the United States. This also brings us to the point where history has taught that the human race has always utilized the weapons which brought the previous war to a close as the opening act in the next major conflagration. This brings us to the question which has been avoided, does Iran have nuclear weapons, if so, how many, what yields and how many missiles and rockets capable of delivering such weapons. With several Iranian military commanders and politicians claiming that Israel is merely a one or two bomb nation strongly implied the use of nuclear weapons. The claim that Iran does not currently possess nuclear weapons we find to be an obvious refusal by the Western World to accept what should be an obvious truth. Iran has been seeking nuclear weapons since at the least the mid 1990’s. This has provided Iran with more than sufficient time to develop nuclear fission weapons and leads to a high probability that they also possess thermo-nuclear weapons and have had the time to miniaturize these weapons such that they will easily sit atop Iranian ballistic missiles. Add to this that Iran has perfected the means of launching ballistic missiles from freighter cargo ships which means they could easily attack the United States using this method. Iran places their lack of belief that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear weapons just as they claim the Holocaust never happened. The rejection of the Holocaust is used to claim that the Jews use this to pressure the world into doing what Israel desires and the atomic bombs ending World War II were used to prevent other nations from attaining these weapons leaving the United States as the most powerful nation. When one adds that Iran has Uranium mines within their borders, a heavy water reactor which can produce plutonium and many advanced centrifuges with which to produce a uranium based weapon all without having to import much of anything before having all required to make any variety of nuclear weapons their scientists are capable of building. Below is a map showing the distance from Iran to Israel and the Iranian nuclear facilities. It appears to be preposterous to believe that Iran has not already acquired a nuclear arsenal which they could launch at Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States fleets and anyone else they decide to strike setting off the next war.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

This leads to questions as to whether Israel should preemptively strike the weapons stores which have been built up by Hezballah and other Iranian proxies or should the United States find a means of destroying any nuclear weapons Iran may be preparing to use. This next war could start whenever Iran decides that such is to their advantage. Human history does not make one comfortable with the threats growing from Iran and her allied terrorist forces. Iran can block almost all oil shipments from the Middle East by blocking the Straits of Hurmuz and isolate Europe from Asia, the Middle East and Pacific Ocean by closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closing off the Red Sea making the Suez Canal completely useless. The cards would initially appear to be stacked in Iranian favor which is likely one of the reasons that they have yet to pull the trigger, so to speak. Eventually, Iran will finish their countdown and the attacks will be launched. We have little idea how much of the countdown is left and where the initial war will be launched. The two things we can rely upon are that the United States and Israel will be amongst the initial targets. The rest we will simply have to wait and see. Such a situation is far from ideal but that has been the problem with the Western World, always reacting to what has been thrust upon it and always playing catch-up as they always allow their enemies to decide and direct the initiating salvos.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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