Beyond the Cusp

December 4, 2017

Egypt Very Likely the Next Syria

 

Donald Trump has decided to follow one policy which President Obama used causing great consternation amongst many experts and we expect similar results from President Trump pulling out of the Kurdish region after the Kurdish Militias, particularly the Peshmerga, who pushed the Islamic state back in both Syria and Iraq, opened the path for the liberation of Mosul and the eventual defeat of Islamic State Capital of Raqqa. With the United States deserting the Kurds at the behest of Turkish President Erdoğan who has genocidal aspirations for eliminating the Kurds as he tales their land to reestablish his own Ottoman Empire, or at least the first steps of taking Mosul and Aleppo. President Trump is attempting to avoid getting caught in any quicksand and he knows the Middle East is full of potential sand traps and quicksand. He saw how the Middle East took down both of his predecessors and how even those who pegged their rising star upon Middle East achievements, are now watching those achievements dissolve as if made of sand in a brisk wind. The peace between Israel and Egypt supposedly crafted by Jimmy Carter (it wasn’t and he almost destroyed it trying to tie the Palestinian and Syrian peace onto Egypt which almost sent Sadat running but Begin promised to keep it between the two nations without other Carter presented additions) now leading to a Sinai Peninsula with growing terror and criminal elements running rampant. The other was Bill Clinton’s claim to fame (other than the woman in the blue dress) which was the Oslo Accords which have proven to be a complete fraud and may result in Trump dissolving all hopes for the Palestinian Authority (PA) or other Arab interest ever breaching a peace with Israel and pulling American backing for being the sponsoring negotiator for any Arab and Israeli peace process, especially the two state solution the PA keeps touting as the only hope and then turning down all offers. But our concern with this article is Egypt so let us turn our heads to the Sinai Peninsula for a start.

 

The first group to find the Sinai Peninsula attractive was Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Along with the Muslim Brotherhood came al-Qaeda in the form of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem). Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in late 2014 became Wilayat Sinai which means Islamic State in the Sinai. Today they constitute up to eighty percent of the Sinai Province’s fighting force. The Islamic State has taken a turn towards disaster with the United States support for the Kurds turning the tide. Now the weakened Islamic State cannot even defeat or hold off the Syrian forces of Bashir al-Assad backed by the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Hezbollah. Meanwhile Turkish forces are continuing their assaults on the Kurdish forces from the north while the Iranian and Iraqi forces are pushing them from the south in Iraq thus leading to their rapid retreats and decimation. This will, in time, also lead to the remaining Kurdish likely to become terrorists and fleeing to some place where they can likely join up with, oddly enough, the Islamic State. This will have them choosing between the two places where it appears that Islamic State is regrouping, Mindanao (the southern Island in the Philippines) or the Sinai Peninsula. The ones choosing Mindanao will find United States trained and backed Philippine forces with modern equipment and United States intelligence assistance. The ones choosing the Sinai Peninsula will find initially no resistance and a weak Egyptian ability to contain their actions.

 

Recently, two to three dozen “militants” (read terrorists), attacked a mosque in the Northern Sinai town of Bir al-Abed, along the coastal road connecting the main cities in the northern Sinai of El-Arish and Port Said. Utilizing explosives and automatic weapons, they slaughtered over three hundred of worshipers including almost 30 children and injured approaching fifty more worshippers. Almost all of the attackers escaped. Egypt has promised, or at least Egyptian President al-Sisi has promised to take on the scourge which infects the Sinai Peninsula and clear the terrorists and other criminal elements and provide protection and safety for the residents of the Sinai Peninsula. Of course there are those who will claim that the scourge are the residents of the Sinai Peninsula, and they would have a point as it appears that the expanse has become inundated with what President Sisi would qualify as the wrong element. The first step that is required be taken is to get permission from Israel to use armored units, helicopters and conduct air strikes as under the aforementioned Egypt-Israeli peace accords, Egyptian forces are limited to police using light weapons only enforcing the peace in the Sinai Peninsula, as this was to prevent Egypt from stacking troops on the Israeli border and as Israel was returning the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula and not retaining some percentage or large buffer zone for themselves, making the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula a militarily limited zone made sense back in 1979. Even now, there is a logic but the pressing problems of the terrorists and criminal gangs requires Egypt be permitted some latitude in dealing with this menace as this menace would eventually become a security problem for Israel plus would make arming Hamas with better rockets and heavy weapons more probable.

 

Further, much of the reported actions beyond the slaughter of innocents, have been abnormal and abhorrent activities. There have even been horrific reports of rape, beheadings, drug trafficking, weapons trafficking, slave trade, sex trafficking and trafficking of organs taken from African kidnap victims. All of these would be problematic for Israel who shares an approximately two-hundred kilometer border with Egypt much of which is not fenced as of yet plus there is the almost fifteen kilometer border Egypt shares with Gaza through which anything, literally anything, could pass especially should Egyptian guards be scared from their guard posts or simply removed as has occurred in one memorable incident. Jihad militants based in the Sinai attacked an Egyptian outpost killing between ten to fifteen Egyptian policemen at the security checkpoint in Rafah. Then the militants stole vehicles laden with weapons (see pictured below) and tried to breach the Israeli-Egyptian border crossing at the Kerem Shalom terminal using an armored vehicle and one truck. Israeli Air Force aircraft managed to destroy the armored vehicle thwarting the terrorist attempt to cross into Israel. Ground forces intercepted the truck as it crossed the border destroying the truck and neutralizing the sole terrorist inside driving the truck. No Israelis were hurt in the incident. The Sinai Peninsula terrorist problem had been a building problem ever since the fall of Egyptian President Mubarak who was forced out by President Obama and replaced by Muslim Brotherhood’s favored candidate, President Morsi, who was subsequently replaced in a coup by President Sisi who won the subsequent elections, which was no big surprise. During this entire period the Sinai has been protected and policed by fewer and fewer forces leading to the current problem reaching the levels it has. Now more drastic action is required and it may eventually take more than Egypt is capable of addressing.

 

Weapons Cache Stolen in Egyptian Terror Raid Captured by Israel

Weapons Cache Stolen in Egyptian Terror Raid Captured by Israel

 

Should Egypt prove incapable of addressing the terror and criminal problems in the Sinai Peninsula, that would bring on some very interesting prospects. Should Egypt turn to Israel for assistance, what might lead to Israel permitting IDF soldiers to risk life and limb to assist Egypt with what is basically a pure Egyptian problem? That would pose an interesting question and one can wonder at the various and potential solutions. There can be little doubt that Israeli assistance would make the effort far easier but one can only imagine what would entice Israel into such a deal. Perhaps if Egypt were to include the removal of terror entities and criminal elements from Gaza as well and offering to take in those Arabs from Gaza desiring to leave Gaza and then turning Gaza back to Israel with the understanding that the remaining Arabs would be permitted to have a semiautonomous area near Gaza City and Rafah. This would remove the problem of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and who knows whom else on the Israeli southern border while providing Egypt with well-trained troops to assist with the problems in the Sinai Peninsula plus it would provide Egyptian troops some lessons in terror control tactics by working alongside Israelis. Some Egyptians might even realize that the Israelis are not all that different from the Egyptian troops having similar difficulties and similar desires beyond their military service.

 

Meanwhile, there are more problems in Egypt which could greatly increase the problems with extremism and terrorists. Quoting the Egyptian government, “Unemployment among Egyptian youth, who have been the jihadi foot soldiers, is above thirty per cent” and even higher for women. This leaves a large and dissatisfied group who are restless and seeing no future for themselves leaving them with growing resentments and anger. Such a situation leads to other problems including drug use, alcohol addiction and potential recruitment into criminal gangs or even terrorist groups. These are both fast tracks to a short life but for some the risk is worth it, as they see no other means. They are attracted by promises of wealth, prestige and living fast. What they are not told is live fast, die fast. Many of these youths will be amongst the first to die should the terror groups believe they have an opportunity to attack Israel with their new recruits and larger numbers but that would be a drastic and costly mistake. These children have little meaning to the terror masters who would sacrifice them as cannon fodder leading the next attack on an Egyptian outpost or whatever their target.

 

The truth of the matter is that should the Islamist State move into the Sinai Peninsula, they would not be much of a threat to Israel as if they could not beat the Kurdish Militias simply because they had United States air support, they would be utterly destroyed taking on the IDF’s combined forces. The only country which would have to worry would be Egypt. Egypt’s two main cities, Cairo and Alexandria, are both hours from the Sinai Peninsula. Additionally, the Suez Canal is extremely vulnerable to terror forces operating in the Sinai Peninsula. Should the Islamic State start shooting at tankers traversing the Suez Canal they could cause incalculable financial losses especially if one of the tankers were to catch fire and block the canal for all shipping for hours, or worse, days. Such an attack would cause worldwide panic as the Suez Canal is a major shipping point used by Europe and Asia for the majority of their trade and alternate routes are not exactly comparable. Further, should the world decide the Suez Canal has become too great a risk, then Egypt would lose its main source of revenue and lose face in not being capable of protecting their own lands and their one major waterway. Soon the Sinai Peninsula problem is going to spill into mainline Egypt and take out the Suez Canal when it does, as the world would not trust the security of their ships to the Egyptian promise of security of the Suez Canal if Cairo or Alexandria were to be attacked by terror forces from within the Sinai Peninsula. How little would world trust Egyptian guarantees of safe shipping along the Suez Canal if terrorists were to cross the canal in numbers for an assault on Cairo? Insurance companies would raise rates on shipping through the canal possibly making alternative routes more affordable.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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December 3, 2017

Should Israel Ally with Saudi Arabia Over Iran?

 

There have been whispers that there may be a plan taking shape between Israel and Saudi Arabia to try and prevent the obvious moves by Iran to establish themselves as the hegemonic superpower of the Middle East. This has much to do with the Shiite Crescent we have spoken of at length which Iran has put together using the southern three-quarters of Iraq, Lebanon and the soon to be reconstituted Syria of Bashir al-Assad connecting Lebanon with Hezballah into the mix. When one adds Qatar and Yemen where Iran backed Houthis are winning against Saudi Arabian efforts, one can see immediately that Iran has all but surrounded Saudi Arabia against whom Iran has often claimed they desired the Saudi Arabian oil fields as well as taking control over the Holy Cities of Islam, Mecca and Medina which are also part of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Arabian efforts in Yemen had early support from Egypt but President Sisi has enough troubles of his own and pulled out of the efforts in Yemen and began to work more favorably with Turkey and President Erdoğan.

 

An aside, one can only hope that Sisi has since reconsidered any siding with President Erdoğan as such could end up being an ill thought out plan with President Erdoğan appearing to have hegemonic dreams of his own and also having proven not exactly unopposed to siding with Iran when it suits his needs. This could prove particularly dangerous should President Erdoğan promise assistance in the Sinai Peninsula as his offer may have ulterior motives. Additional reasons for Saudi Arabian Royal Family concerns may be tied to the apparent exit by the United States from Syrian and Iraqi support for the Kurdish forces leaving them vulnerable to Iranian allies as well as Turkey’s President Erdoğan, the man who assured President Trump that abandoning the Kurds was necessary unless the United States was ready to support their declaring themselves independent, something both the State Department and Pentagon opposed. The exit by President Trump has left the Saudi Royal family nervous and seeking another power to ally with in order to pose a more formidable opposition force against Iran. This will be double should Turkey actually agree to ally themselves with the resurgent Shiite forces of Iran. That could prove tricky as Turkey is three-quarters Sunni, but then Iran has allied with Sunni Hamas and is wooing Sunni Fatah and PLO all in their effort to also encircle Israel. One can only wonder how long before Iran offers Egypt assistance with their troubles in the Sinai Peninsula as this would give them their final front with Israel and Saudi Arabia plus a direct route for arming Hamas. Iran may also pose a threat to Jordan as Jordan also borders Israel and Saudi Arabia.

 

One last reason for Saudi Arabia to desire allying with Israel is the obvious case that Israel is considered a nuclear armed nation and Iran is a borderline, if not already, nuclear armed state who will likely turn recognized nuclear within the next two to three years. This usually brings up the old story about how Saudi Arabia financed the Pakistani nuclear program and the two nations have an unspoken agreement that Pakistan was to provide Saudi Arabia with plans and as many as a dozen nuclear warheads upon a request from the Saudi Royal Family. That agreement, assuming that it ever existed, may fall upon the old adage of, “What have you done for me lately?” Time has passed and things have changed which means the people who made that long ago agreements have left the scene and the people who replaced them may not be as eager to provide the requested assistance. Probably the most that the Saudi Royal Family should expect might be the schematics and plans for the manufacture of nuclear weaponry and not the actual weapons and as the Pakistanis have very likely long since developed more advanced nuclear weapons including thermonuclear weapons all without Saudi Arabian assistance which probably makes the Pakistani government feel far less indebted to the Saudi Arabian Royal Family for their initial financing of the Pakistani crash effort to respond to the development of nuclear weapons by India. The Saudi Arabian Royal family likely already has checked and realized that their former agreement with Pakistan no longer holds water or nuclear warheads or possibly even the plans for a nuclear warhead or other device. This very probably has not made the Saudi Arabian leaders feel any more secure about the Iranian looming threats.

 

So, Saudi Arabia is facing the reality of the Pakistan deal having gone south, the United States pulling out of every hot spot in the Middle East, Egypt sliding away from the Saudi Royals and inching towards Turkey, feeling the Iranian noose tightening around their necks thus the Saudis are seeking someone, anyone to come and take some of the problem off their shoulders knowing that this time the United States has been caught flat-footed needing a friend badly. Israel is facing much the same problems, as are the Saudi leaders, and likely just as desirous of friends and allies upon which to depend coming to their side immediately. The difference is that Israel has been here before and her faith in Hashem has always provided exactly what the Israelis required. The proof was centered and has given Israel much to think and mull over. The Israelis have faced such a threat before and survived despite all odds. This still leaves much to consider before it is too late.

 

This forced the hand of the Saudi Government to act and seek new directions and friendships. Still, now that we have the time, what should Israel do in order to survive any Iranian threats, something which must be viewed as if being under a microscope? The idea to ally with Saudi Arabia has way too many holes to actually hold much promise. Israel must weigh exactly why they should enter into any relationship, especially with a nation which is still in a state of war with Israel. The Saudi Arabian peninsula has numerous oil fields and a means of gathering the Jews closer together. Israel is dependent on Hashem and need no other protections as Hashem made a promise and will be true to his words. Still, the Israelis will be alone facing a regional super power possibly after Saudi Arabia has been eliminated as one to be reckoned with leaving Israel feeling very vulnerable. Should Israel manage to be in such a position the United States would need to provide assistance though manpower would not necessarily be required. Israel might feel that the current case of threat requires her to rely on another and to seek to find such a nation. Israel has always stood by herself and honestly does not require any additional assistance to face down Iran. Starting to rely on people whom until recently sought her destruction would not be the most prudent of acts.

 

Saudi Arabian and Iranian Maneuvers in Middle East

Saudi Arabian and Iranian Maneuvers in Middle East

 

The leaders of the Arab world now seeking to ally with Israel would turn away the instant the threat has passed. Further, forming an anti-Iran alliance would result in placing Israeli Defense Force soldiers under foreign command. That would be nothing short of suicidal. Israel has an ally in this situation, and that ally is Hashem, just as she has always had. Yes, Israel might be wise to enter into a coalition which would strengthen her position, but should also be careful not to be used simply to strengthen their position leaving Israel with insufficient forces retained for her own defense. Israel has the capacity to defend herself and protect her borders and adding in her ability to launch in kind any strike likely to originate from Iran including nuclear. Israel would, inevitably when push comes to shove, have only herself to defend her people, as none of the Arab world would permit any of their soldiers to fight to protect Jews no matter the situation. Israel must contend with protecting Israel by herself with her own forces and their stamina to go the distance. Israel will have no others on which to defend her when Iran turns her attention to Israel. The sole responsibility for protecting the Israeli people falls to Israel. We do not see Arab forces rushing to our aid in a time of need, but can realize that many would be rushing to join our enemies in the efforts to defeat us.

 

This is part of why Israel must join those who refused Saudi Arabia’s invitation to join forces to fight Iran. One can readily see that the Saudi Arabian leadership would lead the sacrifice of everybody else’s troops before losing a single one of theirs. That is a bad deal, period. Israel should commit to her reliance in Hashem as she has always committed to doing when troubles brewed internally or externally. This next test Israel is facing will be one which tests her faith and at some point, it will take measure of the Jewish People and their collective faith in the Almighty. Should Israel pass this test, then we will know that we are prepared as a People to receive the Messiah and that the time is approaching where the Messiah will finally come to establish the Heavenly Kingdom here on Earth and peace will rule the world over for a very long period. We may very well be on the threshold of the ultimate deliverance of mankind, their final deliverance. We must be prepared for such an eventuality as we need be readied for such a monumental event. The last of our brethren who will be returning to Eretz Yisroel will be gathered to Israel by Hashem and the Messianic Age will be upon all of us with a Heavenly ruler whom we had best not disappoint.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 30, 2017

Terrorism Rant Over the Obvious and the Less Mentioned Truths

 

President George W. Bush set the bar low and in the wrong direction after the great terror attack of our time, the 9/11 terror attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, to simply continue on with our lives as normal. He started the message which has become ubiquitous with the aftermath of any incident, namely the “Islam is the religion of peace.” President Obama carried these ideals and messages to the next level when after virtually every terror act we heard the identical message from virtually every media outlet. The first item they would come out with was that each terrorist was acting as a singular event and thus was a “lone wolf” such that there was no conspiracy or driving effort behind each attack, these attacks always had nothing to do with Islam, and we were to be especially careful not to permit any act of terror to mold our perception of Muslims and as such we were to be particularly sensitive to prevent any acts “driven by Islamophobia.” The sustained message was always to make sure we disassociated the terrorist act from Islamic influence and were to be particularly sensitive to any act of Islamophobia. That message would resonate for days and potentially weeks after the act depending on the severity of the attack and the death toll. A subsequent message has been added specially for people when Donald Trump became President which called for the complete separation of any act of terrorism from the immigration policies President Trump proposed. Immigration temporary ban from trouble spots such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Somalia or other nation mentioned in President Trump’s plans intending to set up a system where potential immigrants would be better vetted. That would have included the New York bicycle path vehicular murders where eight people were murdered and another twenty were seriously injured by an Uzbek immigrant, Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov, who arrived on one of the special “diversity visa lottery program” where people enter a lottery for expedited entry into the United States from nations which might otherwise not receive entry as easily. We were, in this particular case, given the entire treatment.

 

Just to see how accurate the usual path actually fits this one attack, thus dictating how far down the path we are supposed to travel, perhaps we can look at others along the way. Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov was said to be a “lone wolf” with absolutely no ties to any terrorist group. Perhaps this was why he was heard yelling, “Allahu Akbar” and reportedly asked for an ISIS flag to be hung in his hospital room. We also know from ISIS instructions on-line and through their propaganda reports, CD’s, tapes and other material often available for the asking at the correct Mosque once you have proven yourself to be a true believer, that car or vehicle rammings is one of the acts of terror they recommend for its efficiency and ease of execution, but this has no connection to Islam. The problem of Islamophobia is ever present after any terror attack and the networks and local new coverage teams either already have or will request for a person from one of the Islamic Mosques or Houses who will relate their terrible treatment and being made to feel like they were despised or suspected of being a potential terrorist and the horrific looks and stares to which they were subjected. The people chosen for these interviews are often a couple dressed in clothing which depicts them as Muslim and they often are carrying an infant or small child who has a wide eyed innocent look and they convey extreme trepidation for the camera. Meanwhile, there were far more reports after the 9/11 World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks accusing and explaining and showing “evidence” of Jewish, Israeli and even United States government collusion in the attacks. There were reports of conspiracies such that the planes were empty of people and instead had additional explosives and volatile fuel additional to the normal fuel tanks and that the list of people supposedly on the aircraft were made up as were the names of the terrorists done in order to drive hatred for Islam and Muslims in the United States. It was done by the Mossad working hand-in-hand with the Central Intelligence Agency.

 

We are supposed to separate the terror attacks from Islam, organized terror, and all other evidence and reality. Islamophobia is presumed to become ever-present to such an extent that the entirety of the public must work to prevent such baseless fears. No matter what the actual person committing the acts of terror are prone to saying, there is no actual proof that these individuals, the word individual is vital so we hear it often in descriptions, may claim, all evidence is they had no direct ties and never were trained on how to commit such acts of terror. How gullible does one have to be to believe that a person would require a trip to some remote location in the Middle East or Africa where they are given a twelve week intensive training on how to rent a truck and then drive it into a crowded bus stop, a mass of people celebrating an event as in Nice, France, down a well traveled bike path killing and injuring dozens or any in a series of such attacks in Israel and around the world. The future terrorist would be given instruction on how to start a truck, what to do if they flooded the engine, how one aims a truck, how to swerve just enough to hit bus stops, light rail stations, bicycle paths or just drive onto sidewalk cafes plus yelling “Allahu Akbar” with the correct reverence. They would be given advanced classes on jumping curbs and medians, planning and timing of attacks, how to strike preferred targets such as Jews, maximizing bumper impacts for maximum carnage and finally different ways of ending your ramming experience. Here they would receive training in driving off and ditching the car, leaving the vehicle and knifing bystanders with advanced training on chainsaw usage, fleeing on foot, or even how to end with a bang using explosives, both in the vehicle and wearing a bomb vest. Of course, the school for the advanced studies of vehicular terrorism issues certificates including any advanced classes one required or volunteered to attend. Of course these terrorists simply followed basic instructions and there has to be some form of connection with so many demanding ISIS flags hung in their hospital room, ISIS flags draped around their apartments, ISIS handbooks on how to execute the perfect terror attack, ISIS Islamic worship books and Qur’anic copies from ISIS with particular verses highlighted and various other items all from ISIS or other terror groups such as Hezballah, Hamas, IRGC and al-Qaeda.

 

Flags of Hezballah, Hamas, al-Qaeda and IRGC

Flags of Hezballah, Hamas, al-Qaeda and IRGC

 

There are also the diaries which tell of their decisions to carry out an act of terror attack, their swearing allegiance to ISIS by filling out a form on-line, one must stay modern, and all the particulars such as choosing the correct target and other preparations and then most important, burial instructions in case one were to die, instructions which very often demand a terror flag to be place on the coffin depicting their specific terror entity to whom they swore their allegiance. Despite the avalanche of evidence that the terrorist was acting in faith with a terror group, we are told they acted completely alone without any instruction, guidance or affiliation with any terrorist entity. This lone wolf tag on each and every terror attack is vital if the government is to continue with their instructions that there is nothing to see here, move along, make sure this does not affect your Christmas shopping and live life as if this never happened because if you do take notice and connect all the dots, then you might demand that government do something about this problem, take real and effective actions. Imagine that, the government actually addressing the problem of terrorism or even noticing there may be a problem. Government would prefer that the sheeple simply act like ostriches with their heads in the sand and ignoring the obvious signs which tie all these attacks together. So, let’s review the signals; using a vehicle to run down people, ISIS and terror organization pamphlets at home, ISIS or other terror flags in house, demand terror flag to decorate hospital room, yelling “Allahu Akbar”, self-confessed member of terrorist organization, and ends by attempting to stab as many people as they can run down.

 

Ostriches with Their Heads in the Sand and Ignoring the Obvious Signs

Ostriches with Their Heads in the Sand and Ignoring the Obvious Signs

One might ask why the government spends such an enormous amount of energy to prove that every terrorist attack is committed by individuals with no affiliation with a group with a terror-structured group. The reason is actually the most obvious of reasons, if the terrorists were organized, then there is in existence an organization against which to fight. If the terror is organized the government would be obliged to take action, but the government does not wish to have to act, as these organizations are often found in places difficult to attain permission to attack. Further, if the government took on fighting them, they would necessarily cross borders and actively engage the terror entity within some nation. In many cases, the terrorists control the government of the nation in which they train or have its cooperation. Take Lebanon as an example, Hezbollah all but runs the government as is a major party in the ruling coalition. To fight Hezballah one would be required to also fight against the Lebanese Army as well as Hezballah and further, Hezballah would be given access to all the weaponry and armor of the Lebanese army which includes United States Abrams main battle tanks. The Lebanese fly Apache helicopters as well as having numerous modern Russian equipment, which is far more modern than was expected. The Taliban takes their refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The United States would likely never get access to any Pakistani lands. Finally, the IRGC is the Iranian military foreign special tactics and strike units and to attack them would be to declare war on Iran, even should they be engaged in the Tri-Border Region of South America. The tri-border region is formed by the cities of Puerto Igauzu, Argentina; Foz do Iguazu, Brazil; and Ciudad del Este, Paraguay and includes two airfields, training areas, weapons ranges, live fire zones, and is beyond the control of any of the three nations’ police or military capabilities. So, unless the United States or Israel was invited by a sovereign government to assist in the eradication of terrorist entities causing difficulties in their area, they are powerless to do anything.

 

So, where might we expect that such an agreement might be reached, and between who? There are numerous places where the United States might be called upon to assist, the question then comes of what benefit would it give Washington D.C. beyond getting a reputation as a terror remover service, which would not necessarily be a bad thing. The terror entities operating out of Pakistan and Iran are and will likely remain beyond the reach of the United States unless they desire a much larger conflict with nuclear-armed nations. Currently Iraq and Syria are under Iranian control along with the Russians who are working alongside Iran and Bashir al-Assad in exchange for naval facilities on the Mediterranean Sea with access to the Atlantic Ocean. That would place these areas beyond United States reach and even more-so as President Trump withdrew United States support for the one group in the region who would have accepted an American military presence and likely have welcomed such and paid it back with dividends in the future, and those were the Kurdish People in both Iraq and Syria. Unfortunately, so as to please President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and whoever else demanded this retreat, President Trump told Turkish officials that the United States would end aid to the Iraqi Kurds to make sure they would not aid the Syrian Kurds. This also means that the United States now has absolutely no interest of group through which they can affect anything in Iraq, Syria or almost the entire Middle East and have thus empowered Iran to become the hegemonic power of the Middle East and we believe they will not stop there. The United States has some number of troops throughout central Africa mostly in Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia with the bulk of the troops in Niger and Nigeria fighting against Boko Haram, a terrorist groups sworn to ally with Islamic State or ISIS. Another place where the United States is engaged fighting terror is on the southern island of the Philippines, the Isle of Mindanao. The one remaining place where terrorism is out of control is in the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. There was the recent terror attack which took the lives of at least two-hundred-thirty-five Egyptians and injured at least one-hundred-ten others. The al-Rawda mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed was targeted during Friday prayers by first detonating a bomb and then assaulting with rifles with full automatic capability, mostly AK-47s. One of the injured reported he saw at least twenty men with assault military weaponry of the kind associated with terrorists, namely the aforementioned AK-47. This is another place that the United States could offer to assist in cleaning out the swamp of terror that the Sinai Peninsula desert has become. This could end up having Israel enter into the war as the Sinai Peninsula does share a border with the Negev Desert and there is little difference between the two in appearance and the entirety of the border is not marked though much of it is fenced. Terrorists have attempted to infiltrate Israel from the Sinai Peninsula before with varied success. Those which have succeeded attacked buses, cars and other targets drawing Israeli responses as required and according to the level of the assault. The possibility of Israel and Egypt working together to clean out the Sinai Peninsula exists but is remote at best. Despite having signed a peace treaty, the peace has been kept but at a low level, one might even call it a very cold peace, very cold.

 

So, as we have seen, the opportunities for the United States to fight the root causes of terrorism would be the initiating of another world war between the Christian West including the Secularists against a resurgence of Islamic forces which have reawakened and are stretching and extending their testing feelers in the form of terrorism and finding the Western world no longer having the intestinal fortitude to fight. This has led many in the Islamic World to conclude that the time has come where they will be able to conquer Europe possibly without a fight. They see Germany opening their borders to “refugees” which many in Islam have seen and even utilized this gesture of humanity to infiltrate Western Europe sending attack squads and even entire company strength terror forces such as the massive attack on Paris. The Paris assault was larger but very similar to the assault by Pakistani terrorists on Mumbai, India. The precision and timing of the Paris attack proved that the terrorists learned from the Mumbai attack. This implies, if not outright proves, that the terrorist entities may have numerous names but in reality break down into three or four groups spread over large areas with separate names in each area but operate in cooperation sharing information and tactics such that useful information is distributed. The different groups likely would be aligned first into Sunni and Shiite. Even there, there is an overlap as Hamas works with Iran as well as the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood also is al-Qaeda, Taliban and likely also has ties with Islamic State. There are those attached to the Wahabbists which also includes the Islamic State and Taliban. The Pakistanis are largely aligned with al-Qaeda and Islamic State as well as ties to Saudi Arabia. The Palestinian Authority (PA) which includes Fatah, PLO and has been drawing closer to Hamas retuning to the fold is Muslim Brotherhood but the PA of late has been flirting with Iran so that will require watching. Hezballah and IRGC are Shiite and completely tied directly to Iran. The Kurds are technically a national independence movement though they also utilize terror style tactics, their main arguments are with Turkey, Syria, Iraq and now Iran and all that means. Without United States support, Turkish President Erdogan who is drawing closer and closer to the Iranian sphere of influence will work with Iran to annihilate the Kurdish People in an upcoming genocide. Iran and Iraq will conquer and decimate the Kurds in Iraq while Turkey finishes off the Kurds in Syria and takes that area for Turkey. Turkey also has its eye on northwestern Iraq down to Mosul and Syria including Aleppo. This will remain to be seen as Mosul is a target for Iraq to take for use by Iran and al-Assad is supposed to grab back Aleppo also so Iran can hold there. Iran is currently building a base which will include IRGC and Hezballah as well as Iranian military units south of Damascus within sight of the Golan Heights and working to make alliances to encircle Israel. It would not be a surprise to us if the IRGC and Hezballah made moves to bring the terror gangs and crime bosses in the Sinai Peninsula under Iranian control followed by Iran moving on the Sinai Peninsula which would allow Iran to have encircled her two greatest foes in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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