Beyond the Cusp

July 30, 2017

North Korea Sending Trump Personal Message

 

Kim Jong-un has allowed his latest missile to do his talking and his message could not be clearer. President Trump has just been asked whether he feels ready to actually challenge the leader of North Korea or is he ready to back down, bringing his ships home, especially the three aircraft carriers, and stand down from his demands. There will be further questions the least of which will be will the world actually do anything in about six months, a year tops, when Kim Jong-un decides the time has come to unify the Korean Peninsula and place all of it under his benevolent rule. That ought to satisfy his appetite for the remainder of the decade before his sights turn to Japan. Oh, also, should Kim Jong-un be permitted to unify the Korean Peninsula under his rule, the world should expect the unification of China with Taiwan being reunited with Mainland China under the Communist’s rule. Taiwan would still be granted some additional freedom in a similar manner as has been permitted Hong Kong. This would include the slow tightening of the Communist noose that is initially placed loosely around Hong Kong’s neck. Believe it or not, these are the very ramifications that are facing President Trump and the allies of the United States in and around the Sea of Japan as well as Taiwan further south. In our map below, North Korea, as the greatest threat, is colored in red, China, the potential secondary threat, is colored in brown and South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are colored in yellow as the targets depending on the United States to enforce their protection.

 

China and North Korea with Their Targets South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

China and North Korea with Their Targets
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

 

There was a reaction that came initially from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who issued a statement declaring, “As the principal economic enablers of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability.” After speaking with Tillerson on Saturday, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo would join Washington in new appeals to China and Russia to stop North Korea’s missile program. There will be more commentary in the ensuing days, but the main truth, which need be addressed, is that now North Korea can launch a missile and strike the mainland of the United States. Initial reports claim that the extreme range for a missile matching the one launched yesterday using an optimum trajectory could reach Chicago. It was reported to be a Hwasong-14 missile that was launched (see video below), one of the missiles we talked about yesterday in Where Will You Be When Kim Jong-un Launches? What this means is actually far more reaching than most will report. Should North Korea decide they wished to decapitate the United States, they now have the means to launch a small nuclear warhead of minimal yield, which could be designed for a maximized EMP (electromagnetic pulse) which could devastate the United States electrical grid. Should such a device be detonated over the St Louis to Kansas City region, it could quite readily all but destroy the electrical grid of the United States between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains and from well into Canada above the Great Lakes through Texas in the south. Such a weapon would cripple the United States and incapacitate much of the United States military making the ability of the United States to respond to any threat to her allies limited to what could be provided by the Navy. At the moment, such an attack would leave the United States with unmatched power sitting off the North Korean coast in the form of three aircraft carrier groups.

 

 

Still, Kim Jong-un is sending the message that he does not believe that President Donald Trump has what it takes to actually do anything as if he did have such nerve, he would have already taken steps against North Korea. Kim Jong-un may not even be controllable by Russia or China, as he may have gone off the reservation and is now beyond control of anyone and only his death will prevent him from continuing to work towards his dream of weakening the United States, slowly making them powerless against him in the area around the Sea of Japan. The Sea of Japan is the pool of water over which Kim Jong-un desires control, and that makes South Korea and Japan his first natural targets. But there is one difficulty between Kim Jong-un and his goal of ruling his entire small fiefdom, the United States and its ability to crush him should he move even the slightest bit towards his goals. This is why he must first force the United States into knowing that any move made which would support either South Korea or Japan should either come under attack from Kim Jong-un, that he would not hesitate in launching ICBMs striking at the United States with sufficient numbers that they would face devastating destruction beyond what they could absorb. Kim Jong-un has already convinced the world that he cares little about anything but expanding his control and had definite delusions of grandeur and that his thoughts may not even be discernable and thus he becomes unpredictable. Some believe that Kim Jong-un has no real connection with reality and that he could do the unthinkable and begin a nuclear war by launching a nuclear strike on numerous cities within the United States plus using EMP designed warheads with special detonators that will explode them at the optimum altitude of approximately three hundred miles. We have previously told how North Korea has become even a larger problem than the Middle East or anywhere else. Even Syria is nowhere near the threat, neither is the Islamic State because, simply put, Kim Jong-un has been launching a new missile at an ever-increasing rate with each one surpassing the former. Even more distressing has been that each new missile has a greater range than the previous. There is another reality, which is even more of a worry, these newer missiles are no longer all liquid fueled missiles which take long preparations before launching which would permit the United States to detect their readying and preventing their launch; many are solid fueled missiles which can be launched without necessary preparation. These are the facts and there really is not much more that needs saying at this time, but we expect that Kim Jong-un will see to it he remains in our coverage soon. Until then, allow us a little room for levity as we quote Kim Jong-un as he would be in a Clint Eastwood movie, “These trucks carry six missiles and honestly, well, in all the excitement I’ve lost track of how many I’ve fired. Now, as one of these missiles destroys a city, you have to ask yourself a question, President Trump. Do you feel lucky? Well, do-ya Trump?”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 2, 2017

Where Will the Spiraling End?

 

The United States new President, Donald Trump, apparently is not reacting to the threats from North Korea in the routine and usual manner, giving in and sending money, food and meet whatever demands are made by the current psychotic leader of that Communist death trap claims must be met or else he will destroy the world starting with South Korea and moving on to Japan and finally the United States. The past administrations have all responded with the goods every time the North Korean leader has rattle sabers making foul sounding threats if his little realm had used all the treasure from the previous confrontation has reached its end. This was the routine which wound itself repeatedly over time. Apparently, this time may end differently. First, China has called an end to their calling their attack-dog to heel and desist or even make an effort which also was a change in the normal routine. Everything appears as if the forces who might make a difference and avoid the most horrific of results has decided that they prefer to stand aside and see what the mettle of the new President is made of. The Chinese are preparing to sit this little game out and watch from the sidelines after making the feeblest of attempts to calm their friend to their south and instead allowed him to continue bellowing his threats. It appears that China is not receiving the reaction they expected as it was likely their impression that President Trump was not versed in the game of brinkmanship and would simply fold and give in to the threats from Kim Jong-un and provide North Korea with a renewed treasury, feed their starving masses and walk away simply licking his wounds and broken ego, tarnished reputation.

 

Apparently President Trump does not respond well to threats from a proven madman, a leader who has murdered a general for contradicting him, executed his uncle simply because he thought him a threat to his leadership and ordered the assassination of his half-brother in a foreign country so there could be no successor to his leadership other than whomever he should designate. President Trump initially sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Carl Vinson and Kim Jong-un simply continued his ranting and threats. Then President Trump sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Ronald Reagan and Kim Jong-un simply continued his ranting and threats. Now President Trump has further upped the anti and sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Nimitz. We are willing to bet that Kim Jong-un could not care less and might even react unkindly or he might respond with more missile tests and possibly even a full-blown nuclear test. This situation, to put it mildly, is rapidly spiraling and where it might end is simply terrifying to imagine.

 

Kin Jong-un (김정은) is the grandson of Kim Il-Sung (김일성), the founder of North Korea; the son of Kim Jong-il (김정일), the second leader of North Korea, and is the current leader of North Korea, obviously. His threats are not to be taken so lightly as to make it appear that he is being taken lightly, something this ever-escalating response could impart. Seoul, South Korea, the national capital city is the first place threatened to be destroyed by Kim Jong-un, a threat he could carry out in under fifteen minutes from making the decision. North Korea has approximately 13,000 artillery pieces positioned along the border which could be fired striking Seoul leveling most of the capital city. Making matters even more troubling is the report by the Federation of American Scientists telling of the North Korean known quantities of anthrax, mustard gas, sarin, botulism and phosgene. Such weapons placed in artillery shells designed to release poison gas would not only permit Kim Jong-un to all but flatten Seoul, but to guarantee his artillery fire murdered most of the over ten-million people living within the city. That would be the opening scenario of Kin Jong-un deciding to raise President Trump’s move of positioning three aircraft carrier groups within striking distance of North Korea.

 

The Kim Family

 

The problem in this situation is that President Trump may have stated that all options are on the table, but this does not mean, as some in the media have claimed, that he is out looking for a fight, that he wants a war to prove something. The hope has to be on settling this problem, this saber rattling, with the least amount of violence and a lowering of the threat options. Unfortunately, this is apparently not going to be an option which either side is wishing to utilize, opting instead to raise the stakes, or at least the consequences, should the other side opt to initiate violence first. This is the idea behind placing so much power within the theater surrounding North Korea. This hopefully is the idea behind President Trump placing sufficient firepower within range of North Korea thus making any threats for use of force by Kim Jong-un suicidal at best and foolhardy at the least. The problem is that Kim Jong-un has all the classical signs of numerous psychological disorders one of which is obviously paranoia. A preliminary analysis of Kim Jong-un’s personality by Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics reveals him to apparently be agreeable, acquiescent, charming, placing a high premium on external approval, sympathetic to others’ needs and socially gregarious on the plus side along with a few other lesser traits resulting in an assessment that he is relinquishing too much authority, failing to assert himself sufficiently, delegating too much responsibility, as well as showing hesitation in taking the initiative when circumstances demand boldness or daring. As they say next, just who is really in charge and pulling the strings presumably controlling Kim Jong-un from the background.

 

North Korean Artillery Display

North Korean Artillery Display

 

Should this personality inventory be accurate, then there is an even greater danger in the threats emanating from North Korea, the person making them is hiding behind a figurehead which they are taking the precaution of making appear pompous and unpredictable. Hiding behind this figurehead making threats may make such a figure so assured of their safety from acting in the shadows that they might take chances believing that boldness would force President Trump to weaken and possibly fold or meet their demands with a simple promise from China that they have received assurances that if a basic set of demands were met by the west that North Korea would end their missile tests and enter negotiations over their nuclear program. Then it would be up to President Trump to react to such an offer. The main risk is that should they send a warning shot such as trading artillery fire as happened and reported in the New York Times on August 20, 2015 when the two nations still technically at war exchanged rocket and artillery fire in the first major armed clash across their border in five years. This was an exchange which reportedly resulted in no casualties and was a show of intent and test of wills and response. North Korea has taken an offensive stance with threatening with missile tests into the Pacific Ocean when testing potential ICBMs, shorter-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan to threaten Japan and claiming to be ready to test a new and more powerful nuclear weapon. The threat to Japan has been sufficient that the parliament has been deliberating to revise the Japanese stance since the end of World War II and enlarge their navy and other military strength beyond simple island protection in response to threats perceived from both North Korea and China.

 

China is another reason that President Trump may be placing so much naval and air power into the west Pacific Ocean near both China and North Korea. China has been extending claims challenging Islands claimed by Japan, Viet Nam, Taiwan and the Philippines. These challenges are in addition to their building islands in the South China Sea moving towards the East China Sea and militarizing many of these islands even to the point of placing airstrips on the larger of these water-bound embankments. This challenges one of the most heavily traversed sea-lanes in the world which handles close to one third of the sea trade making it as important as the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz which controls the world’s oil flow from the Middle East, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea. Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below), through their control of Yemen using the Houthis Rebels, are currently under threat of control from Iran, an ally of North Korea, allowing the two to exchange information and technology regarding missiles and nuclear weapons as they share a common enemy, the United States and the Western world. Iran is also allied with Russia as well as China which makes for a real threat in response to the presumed former sole super-power, the United States. The power of the United States is formidable but would face a serious challenge from the combined strength and nuclear power of the combined forces of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. The real question could at some point become are Iran and/or North Korea really worth facing down the United States for either China or Russia, especially with a presumed unknown in President Trump whose most powerful weapon might be his reputation of being a bit of a hot-head.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

Still, one can be assured that President Trump would be best served and likely prefer some assistance from China defusing the current situation with North Korea. What is troubling is if the situation is as the personality profile of Kin Jong-un is accurate and he really is just a puppet being worked by a rogue general or party official working from the presumed safety of anonymity, then President Trump and his advisers plus those in the Pentagon all actually are operating blind as they do not know who they are working against. It is difficult to find a solution if you have no real clue who is the operator on the other side. Kim Jong-un either completely baffled those trying to inventory his personality or is just as unstable as he appears or somebody finds it advantageous to make the ruler of North Korea appear unstable. All of this leads one to really feel that North Korea is, and will continue for the time being, one threat which is front and center. But if that does not frighten you, then keep in mind that standing right alongside them is Iran that has spread terror armies throughout the world and thought to have more operatives living under cover inside the United States simply waiting for the code for them to strike a predetermined target or even instructions of where to strike. They have a training center in South America in an area known as the Tri-Border Area which sits at the borders of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil. And you thought that you could sleep comfortably tonight. Well, probably for tonight, but for how many more nights is the big question.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 2, 2017

In a World Weaponizing for Conflict

 

The news is full of conflicts and growing threats. Iran has tested another ballistic missile which they claim would not be nuclear capable but almost all intelligence services see that differently. China just launched and tested a ten warhead MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles). These are independently guided warheads with a test area set as no fly zone one-hundred-twenty-five mile radius. This should not be interpreted as the limits of their independent travel especially when one adds the fact that China is working to master hyper-glide vehicle technologies. Add that the Communist Party propaganda newspaper Global Times stated their hopes for the Chinese Military Strategic Forces be improved such that they, “must be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown.” China has also been extending her reach southward into the South China Sea even building islands and then arming them as if to challenge anybody to remove them. The Party paper had something to say about such decrying, “We need to get better prepared militarily regarding the Taiwan question to ensure that those who advocate Taiwan’s independence will be punished, and take precautions in case of U.S. provocations in the South China Sea.” Additionally Russia has been extending their reach with their staging forces in Syria and making inroads with Egypt. Russia has been bristling and saber rattling making many nations near and far to feel uneasy.

 

Additionally there are the wars and mass conflagrations across much of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) including but not limited to Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Algeria, South Sudan and beyond. Egypt has problems in the Sinai Peninsula as well as a border with Gaza and the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror organizations amongst others. Israel faces in addition to the Gaza threats another from Hezballah out of Southern Lebanon and the PA (Palestinian Authority) as well as pressures from Europe, both the EU (European Union) and the individual governments, numerous NGOs, the BDS Movement (Boycott, Divestment and Sanction) policies being adopted in numerous cities and even some counties including one of the largest in Spain. These new boycotts are different in that many have decided to simply boycott products from Israel, well, except software, medical breakthroughs, agricultural technologies, cell phone and communication software and systems, and just about anything they actually desire and they will boycott those things they normally do not use. May all the boycotts be equally successful and well structured. There are some in these areas who will actually change some buying habits but what is exceptionally interesting is usually there are more people who now buy Israel intentionally than people actually participating in the boycott to any serious extent. The two biggest threats Israel faces are fortunately not immediate or easily repairable. The future threat is Iran and what will be their actions once they have deliverable nuclear weapons and the missiles on which to place them. This will likely become more serious in three to seven years and hopefully Israel will have an overlapping, four stage, interception system with the Iron Dome for the shortest range projectiles, Arrow Systems and David’s Sling and perhaps have developed both a laser and a particle beam weapon systems which can knock any warhead or missile from the air or in space almost instantly. These will work even better when placed at the eastern edge of the cliffs overlooking the Jordan River Valley once Israel secures all her lands as ruled by the Third Chamber of the Court of Appeal of Versailles in a suit brought by the Palestinian Authority against French companies Alstom and Veolia for building Jerusalem’s light rail system. Their final decision was also a warning to the PA that Israel has the sole claim to all of Judea and Samaria and that they would do best not to take this into any court of law. The fact this came from the friendliest court system the PA was able to find makes this all the more impressively important. A copy of the court ruling can be viewed here.

 

The other threat which Israel faces is, unfortunately, Israel and the timidity of her political class and their inability to carry out the will of the majority of their population and take full advantage of her legal rights of which the first should be the declaration that the Oslo Accords, Roadmap and all other attempts or passages to forming a two state solution are dead as there now exists a two state solution in place which has proven the disaster such solutions pose. The two states currently are Israel and an Arab Palestinian state in Gaza which was initially ruled by the Palestinian Authority who in rather quick order managed to turn the entirety of Gaza over to Hamas who have since then initiated four conflicts and have placed virtually all of Israel within range of their rockets and there have been rumors that they have developed or acquired some rudimentary targeting systems which may allow for missiles aimed at particular targets granting better accuracy and increased potential damage. Additionally, the terror groups in Gaza have been receiving aid on and off from Iran and there is the possibility that the PA has also been approached by Iran. The possibility of Iran, and by inference, the IRGC, having forces that operate in the areas designated to be within the Jewish State under International Law due to agreements and treaties dating to post World War I, is a threat which Israel must avoid and fight with every weapon required to remove such a dire threat. What the immediate future holds is the still ongoing, dragged-out Arab-Israeli Conflict. Do not get tangled up with the PA and the claims that Palestine was stolen by the Jews and the rest of the lies designed to make the conflict between twenty or so Arab nations and Israel make Israel look like the larger force, a complete and utter lie even if one simply measures the funding received by the Arabs surrounding Israel and Israel herself. The terror leaders did not become multi-billionaires by stealing Girl Scout cookies, they receive funds from the UN, from UNRWA, from the EU, from the United States and from almost every government on the planet mounting to billion and billions every year and almost all of these funds are stolen and distributed for terror operations or enriching the elite. Mahmoud Abbas has planned a new house, or should we say villa, or more accurately a complete compound within a building which will hold up to two platoons of security forces stationed with billets, office rooms and conference rooms and private quarters, lavish and luxurious quarters, for Mahmoud Abbas. This Ramallah palatial complex covers 27,000 square meters and includes two helipads costing somewhere around thirteen-million-dollars (see picture below). All of this is while many Palestinians have limited opportunity for employment largely because the graft and other criminal influences of being ruled by a system of pay to play or you have to know the right people. Living in an area ruled by terrorists where people who are related to terrorists who have killed Israelis are paid more than the average government employee, and their governance is the largest employer by far.


Mamoud Abbas planned masion estimated cosr of thirteen million dollars but will end up costing far more after required kickbacks

 

All of this comes as a waiting present for new United States President Donald Trump. There is almost always a test for a new President where somewhere in the world a panic situation or threat grits its teeth and snarls at the new President. For President John F. Kennedy it became known as the Cuban Missile Crisis which many claim was about as close as the USSR and the United States came to launching their nuclear arsenals. For President Trump it comes in stereo with both Iran and China launching ballistic, nuclear warhead capable missiles. Iran is pressing President Trump as a challenge to his claim that he would tear up the Iran agreement and renegotiate the agreement (President Obama called it an agreement and refused to call it a treaty, so neither will we) and Iran is basically challenging to see what the reaction will be. China is showing off their newest technological abilities and forcing the United States numerous different Intelligence Services to reassess the totals of nuclear weapons possessed by the Chinese. The current estimates of under three-hundred and likely somewhere close to two-hundred-fifty to seventy-five to probably well in excess of five-hundred warheads with the majority being miniaturized for use in their new ten warhead MIRV systems. The current test was done on an older missile but the Chinese have a newer missile on the horizon with greater range and accuracy. China too has issues with President Trump over his bold claims to press China on the South China Sea if they continue their aggressive behavior and his taking the phone call where President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan congratulating him on winning the election though technically he was not yet the United States President but merely the president-elect, but apparently the Chinese decided not to see it that way and took great offence. Perhaps it will be refreshing for the protesting and madder than all get up anti-Trump American to know that there are people in other places in the world who are equally irked by President Trump.

 

The world is not quite spinning completely out of control, but it is shifting ever closer to the danger end of the scale. Some of it is simply there is a new United States President so let us all get in his face one way or another just to see how he reacts. Some of it is that President Trump truly does, and probably should, scare many people with his being pretty much an unknown, easily offended, irascible, seemingly short tempered, egotistical extremist in everything he has ever done. Still some who are close to the man claim he is a big and cuddly teddy bear. Well, even a teddy bear is a bear and bears can be dangerous when irked. Additionally, Islam is warring with itself and with Europe and potentially the rest of the developed Western world. There are more tinderboxes catching fire than usual and some would say just in the United States itself. The Mexican President just cancelled his scheduled meeting with President Trump over yet another ignorant call for Mexico to pay for the Wall and claiming that taxation (tariff) on imports from Mexico might be one means and cutting aid another. For reasons which probably escape President Trump, his Mexican counterpart did take offense. What will be next is anybody’s guess and it appears we will simply have to wait and see. We feel we will not need to wait that long, but we still pray that we are surprised and the next explosion is well past the immediate horizon. We will just have to wait and see what will come around the next corner and pray for the best.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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