Beyond the Cusp

August 22, 2016

State Department and Their Moment of Clarity

 

The United States Department of State released annual Report to Congress on International Religious Freedom – the International Religious Freedom Report – describing the status of religious freedom in every country. This year the report had a remarkable citation which had previously been explained away by blaming the victim and excusing the oppressive doctrinarian persecutor which practiced religious and societal supremacy despite their societal dysfunctionality. The hiccup, if you’ll admit the slang, was a report that the Palestinian Authority (PA) was indeed committing anti-Semitism and broadcasting it on their television and radio broadcasts. There were also criticisms of Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Indonesia Wednesday for having laws that infringe upon religious freedom citing blasphemy, apostasy and anti-conversion laws. The report succinctly stated, “Such laws conflict with and undermine universally recognized human rights,” referring directly at one state’s actions the report went on to state, “Saudi Arabia penalizes blasphemy with lengthy prison sentences and lashings, often after detention without trial, or so-called protective custody, according to legal experts.” Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated at an event announcing the report, “In far too many countries, 2015 witnessed appalling patterns of significant restrictions on religious practice, as well as societal intolerance of, restrictions on and even violence against members of religious minority groups. Bigotry and intolerance can be found in every part of the world, including the United States, but every country has an obligation to respect religious liberty and freedom of conscience.”

 

But in the area of Israel, where we will concentrate our commentary, the report brought some needed fresh air. The State Department, and especially under President Obama, criticizing the PA for their open and blatant anti-Semitism is as surprising as it was welcome. As far as any actual actions or further recognition, that remains to be seen though we expect very little to come of this. Reports are, after all, written to please, aggravate, motivate or mitigate situations while having minimal effect or amelioration before being filed on a shelf next to the report from previous years which had also made new or original bold statement only to settle on the shelf awaiting the next year’s report to brace it from the open end. This report shall be no different and likely be even of less consequence as the elections in the United States will soon suck all the oxygen from the media rooms across the world, be it the United States elections or the German elections by five of sixteen states in the build-up to the next year’s federal vote where it is fully expected to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from a decade of dominance due to the refugee crisis. Changes are coming in Europe and perhaps in the United States as well. All of this we will watch and see and then wait for any changes both local and internationally. Despite belief by President Obama that he controls the fate of the world, this report was likely about the upcoming elections while ignoring their boss, the man holding the world currently.

 

Obama World and he can hold the whole thing like a basketball but just like a basketball he is clueless what to do with it

Obama World and he can hold the whole thing like a basketball but just like a basketball he is clueless what to do with it

 

Closer to home at our small corner, and we emphasize small, of the Mediterranean the State Department report will be accepted as a breath of fresh air as a known reality has finally been recognized in writing by what has been and likely remains an adversarial United States Department of State. This report may simply be the State Department setting a note in their records just in case there may be coming a drastic change in the Executive Brach of the United States governance. Despite the hyperventilating over the great lead Hillary Clinton has theoretically built up in the past month according to the United States media, even FOX, in the most respected and neutral polling this past week she held less than a five percent lead, less than a single point in one, over Donald Trump, a lead within the margin of errors. This probably has the great minds at the State Department fearing that the light they see down the tunnel is not the opening to the broad outdoors but the headlamp of an onrushing train and they figure better to be safe than left out on a limb with little support as a new President starts sawing their branch off before they can scamper back saving themselves and their appointed positions. Moving to the center is done by places beyond candidates who have been forced away from the center during a primary challenge. This may be nothing more than centering the State Department ship before it lists so far over they capsize.

 

Then again, perhaps there is another reason for the state department report stating in blatant terms that the PA broadcasts and other activities are peddling anti-Semitism. There is also the possibility that the extremes reached have finally crossed a previously uncrossed level which placed their actions beyond even the State Department’s ability to excuse with their normal euphemisms. The previous State Department reports had blamed the Israeli “occupation” and Israeli “oppressions” and “treatment of the Arab Palestinian” as the reasons for which any hatreds originating from the PA and their society as understandable and even excusable. The fact is official members of the PA governance are making statements over the broadcast channels to instigate further attacks on Israelis anywhere and everywhere including blatantly calling for violence within Israel inside the Green Line in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, Jerusalem, Ashdod as well as Hevron and other areas in Judea and Samaria. Further calls were broadcast calling for Israeli Arabs to attack and murder Israelis and some calls to violence was more general demanding the attacks and terrorism to murder Jews. There were also the calls for rioting on the Temple Mount where there was no difference drawn between Israelis and tourists whether Christian, Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu or even Shinto. What will remain to be seen is the follow through, should there be one. But will the policies demand of Israeli sacrifices and concessions while forgiving any and every crime committed by the Arabs both under PA rule and Hamas rule in Gaza. One need remember that Hamas was overwhelmingly elected in honest elections over a decade ago by both the Arabs in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria and no elections have been permitted by the ruling Hamas or Fatah, both terror parties, ever since. The Arab Palestinians have what can be laughingly referred to as third world democracy, one person, one vote, one time.

 

Reports recognizing the near universal anti-Semitism and religious hatreds which permeate the Arab world where even minority sects of Islam are denigrated and subjugated to similar treatments as the Christians, Yazidis, Baha’i, Buddhists, Hindus, Zoroastrians and other minority religions spread across the Islamic world as well as the Arab world have previously been rare and oft ignored. Reports and even speeches may bring attention to these problems but there needs be actions backing up the words. This will be what needs be watched and see if policies are altered to reflect this report. All of this will depend heavily on the next elections throughout Europe after the first installment of reaching towards three million and possibly as much as five million “refugees” have inundated the continent from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with over one million taking up refuge in Germany alone. The fact that approaching eighty to ninety percent, depending on locations and reports, of these “refugees” being males between the ages of thirteen to forty without women or children accompanying these military age males paints an ominous picture for military planners and security forces alike. Then there were the New Year’s Eve sex crime wave which struck central celebration areas in cities all across Germany and in spotty locations in Scandinavia and other European hot spots, the terrorism increase and a general increase in crime. While what the level of assimilation to which these mostly Muslim immigrants will accomplish with their adopting a more European outlook cannot yet be ascertained but initial data leaves one with an uneasy feeling about the grim prospects of there being any degree of assimilation. Some are blaming the BREXIT on the immigrant crisis where the reason the British voted to leave the European Union was so they could place blockades against further infiltrations. As the “refugees” have yet to penetrate into Scotland and Northern Ireland or the Irish Isles has been stated by those who voted in large sectors from England as the reason these areas are considering rejoining the European Union independently. If these nations from the British group expect that they might be voted from Britain with the English possibly deciding to go it alone relying on the English to act as a cork on the European bottle protecting these nations after they reapply to the European Union from direct infiltrations by MENA refugees halting them at the Chunnel blocking any crossings of the English Channel, they are hoping that the English will be responsible for them while they continue the jolly life as members of the European Union protected from the decisions in Brussels by England, the adults on the islands. The English would be hard pressed to allow the “refugees” to pass through to the northern lands as that would place their presence on both borders making their infiltration a greater danger by far.

 

Meanwhile, Israel likely is going to have this paper, this report by the State Department, touted by the government with every party claiming either their contribution to forcing the admitting of the problem or claiming they will patiently await actions which speak louder than worlds. Those who take credit for the report by the State Department are making grand claims with likely little real or hard evidence of their complicity in the formation of this report. This admission of the sins committed by the PA was and will continue to be just a centering of State Department positions in anticipation of a possible shift in White House positions after the election and thus the adoption of a more nuanced position from which the department can slide whichever direction the President will lean upon arrival. The State Department simply has noted that whichever candidate wins the election, be it Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, there will be little if anything that the State Department will be capable of performing which will alter either candidate’s preferred and preset position vis-à-vis Israel. As for determining the position either candidate will take may appear easy, it also may be less well known or predictable as one might suspect.

 

Our talks with actual Israelis, Sabras (native born Israelis) who have never visited the United States, they are confused as to which candidate will win the election. Many feel that Hillary has this as her election to lose as if she cannot beat Donald Trump then she was not cut out to beat anybody. Many fear Trump as much as they do Clinton. The one thing we have seen as a constant is their asking us what we think will happen and pleading that we grant them good news and reinforce what they already hope for from the elections. One item these Israelis have been made aware of comes through a quote, we like quotes as we cannot be fully blamed for their content, the quote we turn to was reputedly from Joseph Stalin where it was stated in Boris Bazhanov’s Memoirs of Stalin’s Former Secretary, published in 1992 and only available, so far as we know, in Russian where it stated, “You know, comrades that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this, who will count the votes, and how.” When we receive puzzled looks we point to the claims that in certain districts there were more votes tallied than there were registered voters and some have claimed that entire voting districts had absolutely no votes recorded for any candidate other than those for one of the two main parties. This often does not clear their puzzled look as much as add a degree of obvious fear or ominous foreboding to their puzzlement.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 12, 2015

As the World Burns

 

The Arab Spring started with the self-immolation of a vegetable barker over his frustrations with the insurmountable legal requirements and licensing which made making a profit impossible and expressed his feeling of utter hopelessness of his life in one blazing protest sparking a wave of protests which were to spread. The government of Tunisia fell within days followed by Egypt with an assisting push and a shove by United States President Obama pushing Egyptian President Mubarak out the door and all but guaranteed the Muslim Brotherhood would take control of Egypt. Little was known at the time that this had been the design by President Obama. The so-called Arab Spring rolled into Libya next and with a great amount of assistance from NATO powers Muammar Gaddafi was knocked from power almost solely due to the air strikes and other NATO assistance but the plan for any reconstruction failed leaving Libya broken into its tribal elements and some areas under the control of the influence of al-Qaeda and other areas under Islamic State with the rest under tribal control which may prove more stable a practice than the imposed state system from Sykes Picot, the one complaint made by ISIS before they decided to go on Jihad as the New Caliphate which had some degree of merit, but lust for power always overrules sensibility. The next stops were Yemen and Syria. These appear to be currently the play of power of Iran using Yemen to gain control of vital waterways off of southwestern end where the Red Sea exits into the Gulf of Aden and on into the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean all through the choke point known as Bab-el-Mandeb which is the name of the straights with which Iran wrests control for all shipping traffic through the red Sea including Suez Canal traffic and sea traffic from Israel and Jordan coming south through the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea on to Africa or Asia. Closure of this vital waterway would provide a causes belli of war should Iran block this waterway bringing Iran in direct contention of Europe, the far east and much of commercial shipping which would normally use the Suez Canal. Such a blockage could rapidly escalate out of control with nation after nation declaring their rights being challenged and commerce being directly affected adversely.

 

But the Arab Spring quickly became the Arab Winter as Egypt had a second set of massive demonstrations even larger than before which were more widely attended including students and businesspeople and others from nearly every walk of life which eventually led to the Egyptian military replacing the sitting government which had been on a fast track to implement Sharia, at least the interpretation of Sharia by the Muslim Brotherhood which they would have inevitably used to place themselves in the sole position of appointing the future Presidents and members of parliament thus giving themselves dictatorial powers. These new moves came to attempt to change the military hierarchy which was one step too far and the military balked and took down President Morsi and his government claiming to be doing so in the name of the people. Meanwhile there was a reshuffling of the Tunisian government to make it more representative of the people and guarding against trading the old dictatorial governance for religious dictatorial governance, a similar but less drastic measure than the one necessitated in Egypt. And the demonstrations began in Syria but unlike the previous demonstrations the one in Syria did not receive the full and hardy backing of the Western nations thus the peoples demonstrations slowly morphed into a disastrous civil conflict which itself morphed into a large Sunni against Shiite war front which spawned the Islamic State which took control over a sizeable area of Syria and Iraq. The latest development has been the introduction of serious air power and missile assaults by the Russians in defense of their naval base at Latakia, Syria and in support of their chosen ally, Bashir al-Assad and the introduction of IRGC troops, the special forces of the Iranian military.

 

Eventually the Egyptian governance worked its way to what all hope will be regular, open, free and fair elections on schedule with the results truly representative of the Egyptian electorate. Hopefully the same can be said for Tunisia which also appears to have settled from its early days as the lead of the changes which swept much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). There were also the unsuccessful or muted. The first were any demonstrations in Saudi Arabia or any of the nearby GCC countries such as Bahrain, Oman, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. There potentials for demonstrations in Saudi Arabia, where a number of Shiite Imams had given sermons to emotionally prepare their adherents to challenge the authorities, many ran out into the streets that fateful afternoon and looked up and down the street and realizing that they were cut off at the end of the block at both ends by security forces, armed so as not to need to discuss principles; so the Shiites calmed themselves and went home without incident in virtually every case and any case where the reaction was different was squelched so fast that it made no news. There was one exception which was Bahrain. Bahrain is ruled by a Sunni Monarch but is predominately Shiite and this led to street demonstrations of a severity which the Monarch was not willing to use the force which would have been required to put down the rioting demonstrators but also could not allow the lawlessness to continue. This required the King Hamad Ibn Isa Al Khalifa to make a call to his friends over the causeway in Saudi Arabia for assistance. The one thing known to the people of Bahrain that should the Saudis come to the rescue of their King, then they may have gone a bit too far and their time left to continue their actions is limited to as long as it takes the Saudi Arabian military to arrive to restore order. This was a particularly large demonstration which almost lasted four hours until they saw a disturbance heading towards the Island of Bahrain along all six lanes of the causeway between the Saudi Arabian mainland and their Island, three lanes in each direction, except this was all six lanes heading for the Island. As the vehicles came closer it became obvious these were Abrams tanks and Armored Personnel Carriers which meant that unremitting and lethal force was coming to their demonstration. This took the wind out of their sails and quickly the demonstrators dispersed rather quickly and peaceably with a small number of fools not heeding the obvious. They were quickly subdued and turned over to the Bahraini officials and the Saudis returned home a week or two later with a small rotation of forces remaining for a month or two as a reminder.

 

There were some rather sizeable demonstrations in Iran where pleadings were chanting for President Obama to assist their cries for freedom and representative governance. There was no reply from President Obama as he had this plan where he would be the one to bring Iran in from out in the cold through negotiations with the Supreme Leader. This plan had no room for new representative governance or for the people’s revolution. President Obama’s plan called for him bringing the previously unapproachable and immovable when it comes to that which he believes and the way he rules and the desires and directions he wishes to take the nation are completely unchallenged as his word is treated as if it were the words from Allah himself. This would eventually play out well after the demonstrators were routed by the Basenji Militias and other extreme police and security forces. The universities were put under a lockdown with security and Islamic observance groups patrolling the dorms and grounds. The end result was an additional term listening to the rantings of President Ahmadinejad, violently put down democracy demonstrations, and after a painfully extracted and pathetic set of surrenders which may or may not be finished and a nuclear treaty with a ruling elite who are not exactly known for keeping promises, meaning what they say or doing what they say or in the end having said what they said as everything is negotiable and even the meaning is open for an ever changing series of interpretations even to the point that what they say means exactly what they mean it to mean at the moment they say it. Deals with the mad hatter or Cheshire cat would be more trustworthy, and didn’t we decide that the President was a lookalike for the Cheshire Cat such that we labeled him Cheshire man as in the picture below. Perhaps that picture may be the closest thing to an accurate depiction of the reality dealt with in making the Iran Nuclear Deal.

 

 

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani smiling for report on how he and Iran charmed the world reminding all of the evil laugh as the Cheshire Cat faded away leaving only his wicked smile and it just fit calling him the ‘Smiling Cheshire Man’

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani smiling for report on how he and Iran charmed the world reminding all of the evil laugh as the Cheshire Cat faded away leaving only his wicked smile and it just fit calling him the ‘Smiling Cheshire Man’

 

 

The problems from the Arab Winter have just begun. The real problem is still a full generation away, a good fifteen years before everything begins to blossom and explode upon the Western world. Presumably, Iran will legally be capable of perfecting and testing ballistic missiles which will give them all the time they could possibly need as they will be completely free to produce, or should we say finally assemble the necessary parts to make their nuclear warheads using the technology perfected by their scientists or by following the methods used by either North Korea and thus be completely ready to produce deliverable warheads using such designs or be using their own designs, whichever way they decide to branch into nuclear warhead designs. Iran can take their time and while working on their nuclear warhead designs and production they can begin the hardest part of the challenge facing them, the proselytizing within and outside of the Islamic communities in Europe and the United States and other Western World Nations to drastically increase the numbers of Shiite Muslims more so amongst those living outside MENA though there will be some moves outside of the ardently Sunni states such as the GCC, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey (though Turkey might be a more ripe for change than many believe). This will be accomplished with the monies freed up by the Iran nuclear deal and target the young who may find Shiite Islam’s dynamic Jihadi strengths more attractive than the more sedate Sunni Islam which is a more conservative approach.

 

The next three years will see between thirty-five-thousand and fifty-thousand “refugees” from MENA invading Europe and sending a fair number to the United States and Canada, especially if these nations remain under leftist control, especially the immigrations offices. Do not get me wrong, the majority, even the vast majority of these will be actual refugees as almost any family which can manage to get to Europe or the United States, the Western world, the first world, such a transit would be a welcome improvement in their lives as even the poorest family in the Western World live in a level almost unimagined other than for the wealthiest in their nations in much of the MENA world. Over the rest of the decade these refugees will likely repatriate with another ten to fifteen people per family. Eventually there will literally be an army ready to impose Sharia across all of Europe and there will be swaths of land in the United States which will be “no-go zones” just as they have in areas around many British, French, Swedish and other European countries where police and even fire and rescue personnel refuse to enter except in force, will populate many areas around numerous cities and training areas may be found in the countryside acreages around Europe and the United States. What many are unaware of is that there exist such training ‘cities’ outside numerous cities in the United States already and these ‘cities’ are well guarded and only allow Islamists known to their group and they hold firearms training and some even hold tactical training and live-fire exercises.

 

 

Terrorist Training Centers in the United States as of 2002. Just Imagine How Many and Where They Are Now and How Many We Do Not Even Know of That Exist in the Middle of Nowhere?

Terrorist Training Centers in the United States
as of 2002. Just Imagine How Many and Where
They Are Now and How Many We Do Not Even
Know of That Exist in the Middle of Nowhere?

 

 

These are the stark realities facing Western Society which the governments are ignoring at their people’s own peril. Why these known camps are being left to their own devices while the FBI infiltrates neighborhood militias and paramilitary militias which often consist of some friends who are ex-military and enjoy target shooting and having paintball outings or even some which simply are reenacting Civil War or Revolutionary War battles. The future is not yet written in stone but it had been stenciled into wet cement and it is starting to dry and will take a while to cure thereafter but the stencils are still malleable, their final story will be up to the people if they decide to take government into their own direction and this may mean many people making whatever sacrifices are necessary and perhaps work for or make a needed new political party or influential branch of a party like the Tea Party had started to make inroads but it will take a long term commitment and it will take families deciding the time has come for regular families to take charge of the governments such that the governments will serve the future of the Western World and the family unit with an emphasis on control of the education of the children as they will be the future and if they are not better prepared than we were, then there will be even less hope, and hope is all there is right now and we cannot lose hope or our future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 23, 2012

After Israel Gaza Ceasefire Now What?

Well, there is an “understanding” towards a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza presumably negotiated by Egyptian President Morsi with an assist from the United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, so the question is now what? Before we get to what to expect, it might be a good idea to mention one of the most vital items rumored to have helped influence the accepting of the ceasefire by Israel and mention a feeling we have had here at BTC as to why Hamas et al accepting the ceasefire. The rumor was that President Morsi threatened that should Israel continue and implement any form of ground invasion that both Egypt and Jordan were prepared to declare war upon Israel in order to assist Hamas and the Gaza Palestinians. Our suspicion is that Egypt has made certain assurances which will allow continued supplies from the Sinai Peninsula into Gaza even if initially such imports will be solely through the expansive tunnel networks under the border to be enhanced when feasible by simply allowing items to be trucked across the border and likely some implication of an Egyptian Hamas alliance on mutual defense being possible. So, Israel was likely coerced, actually threatened, while Hamas and friends were likely made some offer that was sufficient or too good to refuse to accept a ceasefire.

What we can expect is in many ways exactly what has been the usual series of events that have led to the collapse of every earlier ceasefire, accord, peace treaty, or any other acceptance of terms under other names, namely a quick series of rockets fired across the border from Gaza into Israel which then slow over the next week and then a possible lull for a few weeks before the slow escalation ending in a final ramp-up which will trigger the next crisis. Unfortunately, as we saw earlier in Tel Aviv and also Jerusalem, the real next challenge is going to be a return to bombings and attacks on cars, busses and all forms of transit within Israel’s Green Line and within Judea and Samaria. This will be a challenge for the Israeli intelligence and security personnel which have shown apparent increased success and wider coverage and other abilities in the past few years. The Israelis may take comfort in this but must also remember that the very first line of defense against terrorism and the largest number of eyes belong to the people themselves and as has been proven over and over in the past, it is the Israelis themselves who make the difference.

The biggest question is what will happen once the rockets begin to rain down on the south of Israel once again? With the rumor that Egypt and Jordan having threatened to ally with Hamas and the plethora of terror organizations in Gaza may make the decision to apply a large defensive push more difficult, especially deciding to put troops into Gaza. This threat will only become worse should the monarchy in Jordan be overthrown and replaced by a Muslim Brotherhood backed government such as exists in Egypt. This is especially true as currently the loyalties of Hamas and the other terror groups are all being contested between Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, the traditional Islamic contest between Sunni vs. Shiite. Unfortunately, this situation might just lead a contest between the different sides as to which one is able to supply the most weaponry into Gaza. The only sure thing is that within a few months the rockets will start being launched over the border and the clock will start ticking towards the next Israel Gaza crisis. The one slight glimmer of hope was the fact that for the first time Israel received what could almost be seen as backing from Europe and definitely was backed by the United States for as far as they had taken it. The Europeans had already spoken and were to condemn any ground attack by Israel while the United States had avoided making any definitive statement regarding a ground offensive.

As a final thought, we wish to offer a prayer that the hatreds and violence find a path to resolutions, peace and eventual cooperation. May harsh words, deeds, acts and plans give way to cooperation and assistance between the whole of the families of Abraham. We pray for agreement and accord to replace acrimony and discordance. And in our defense, without hope and expectations the human race will not last much longer into the future as the instruments we have designed through which our animosities can be transmitted have reached a level of destructions from which society may not recover.

Beyond the Cusp

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