Is Third Lebanon War Inevitable?

 

Israel is doing all she is able in order to at least stall war with slim hopes of avoiding it all together. Israel has sent messages pleading with the Lebanese government to end the adaptation of the largest of the one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets into guided missiles with within ten-meter accuracy and some even tighter control. Iran has been shipping guidance packages which can be added to normal rockets turning them into guided missiles capable of targeting any Israeli site and be assured of striking them. Israel has made the upgrade of these rockets into guided missiles a red-line which must not be crossed as allowing such leaves Israel under a definitive threat. Needless to point out, but when one places a red line before any of the many Iranian functionaries, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Hezballah, Iran will push them past that red-line just to goad Israel by providing a threat level which cannot be permitted on her border. It is bad enough that Iran has stocked Hezballah with over one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets of varying sizes and ranges (see table below), but now Iran is providing guidance packages and advisors who taught Hezballah how to retrofit mere rockets making them into guided missiles which transforms the threat level beyond what Israel can permit. This message is being provided to be passed on to Lebanese government, specifically Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri by French President Emmanuel Macron who was to deliver the Israeli warning. The choice is very simple and plainly put, either Lebanon prevents any further retooling of the Hezballah rocket inventory or Israel will break everything Hezballah is utilizing for this purpose and probably somewhat more. This would lay waste to large areas of Beirut as well as the surrounding countryside, the Bekaa Valley and most of the areas south of the Litani River.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

According to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezballah was not to rearm, was to remove all offensive capabilities including manpower from south of the Litani River, abandon and destroy the tunnel and bunker network north of the Israeli border up to the Litani River and not engage Israel with a threat of her destruction. United Nations forces were to enforce these terms and should they fail, circumventing or contravening any of these stipulations was to be considered a casus belli instituting a state of war. Hezballah has ignored, transgressed and shredded every item in this treaty often using United Nations vehicles to transport rockets, munitions, terrorist fighters and support people almost everywhere south of the Litani River. Hezballah has not only repaired but expanded, extended and more fully integrated their tunnels, bunkers, rocket firing position and storage areas throughout the regions south of the Litani River. Hezballah has restocked and augmented their rockets with M-600’s, Zelzal-2 and Scud-D rockets approaching one-hundred-thousand of these longer range rockets as well as presumably incorporated the entire arsenal of the Lebanese Army at their command should they be required to engage with Israel. Israel has observed this build-up but drew a red-line in the sand that she would not tolerate guided missiles which could be made to strike any specific target within Israel potentially causing grievous harm to Israeli infrastructure and her people. This was why Israel had bombed a number of the recent attempts which were providing guided missiles to Hezballah from Iran. Now Iran has taken a different tactic, they have been providing Hezballah with special adapter kits consisting of guidance fins and a targeting system which refits unguided rockets transforming them into guided missiles capable of striking specific targets within Israel.

 

How does the addition of guidance packages to thousands of long-range rockets really change anything when the sheer numbers of Hezballah rockets meant that Israel could be virtually blanketed by rockets. The reality is while Hezballah has these many tens of thousands of larger rockets and could presumably blanket Israel from the north to the southern tip, by making them into guided missiles they can specifically target nuclear power stations in Haifa poisoning the entire area with a blanket of radiation, the Dimona Research Reactor, the skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, train terminals and any other infrastructure including the larger shelters where thousands of Israelis will have gathered to be safe from the rockets. Striking one of these larger shelters with four or five guided missiles one after the other would likely compromise the structure rendering it unsafe and potentially collapsing the structure killing many hundreds of civilians. Further, there will be a limited number of these larger rockets capable of being fired before Israel would strike the launch facilities including the mobile launchers preventing a second wave. Now that first wave of newly converted guided missiles would be capable of crippling Israeli infrastructure killing electrical power to much of the nation as well as destroying fuel reserves and other vital infrastructure. Additionally, Hezballah has been provided with a number of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (see image below). These are the identical units which Russia provided Bashir al-Assad with as a threat to Israeli air operations over Syria. These would require detection and destruction before the majority of Israel jet fighters would be safe flying over Lebanon, especially when making a strike run. The limited number of fifth generation F-35 aircraft would be required to make the first attacks on these systems as their stealth makes them less threatened by this system which uses radar guidance. These systems were a game changer providing Hezballah with advance anti-aircraft capabilities which is capable of intercepting the F-15’s and F-16’s or any other aircraft other than the F-35’s recently added to the Israeli Air Force.

 

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles
with Radar System and Control Vehicle

 

The Hezballah threat which has continued to slowly but surely build its threat level to the point where permitting any further escalation would make Hezballah a definitive threat which Israel could no longer permit to choose the time of any confrontation. The safety of many Israelis depends on the IDF initiating any war with Hezballah should Hezballah initiate such a conflict and posses guidance package enhanced rockets which could be used to target Israeli military and civilian airfields. One could hope that Iron Dome and other interception systems would intercept a large majority, still even should 90% or more be intercepted out of one-thousand missiles, should the current escalation continue for another six months, such still leaves one-hundred missiles striking their targets. This would allow one-hundred rockets, missiles, mortars and other projectiles striking Israel for ever thousand rockets fired. This would mean that Hezballah currently could have fifteen-thousand rockets strike Israel. This is why the Israeli Air Force must be capable of taking out the vast majority of everything from the smallest rockets to the largest guided missiles. International Law permits nations instigating acts of war against any force across any border which is preparing to have and deliver destruction which is beyond the ability of the nation to absorb and survive. For a country such as the United States or Russia, there exist very few nations which could deliver such destruction upon them and none of these nations share a border with them. Israel, by comparison, is the approximate size of New Jersey and her neighboring nations, even the wreck which is Syria, are intent upon her destruction. Hezballah is currently, with heavy Iranian assistance, crossing the threshold beyond that which Israel can tolerate. The other terror group with their own semi-autonomous region, Hamas, has been threatening Israel and has already caused significant damage burning down virtually every field of crops within fifteen miles or so of the Gaza border with Israel. Israel cannot leave both Hezballah and Hamas in a position to strike at her at the time of their choosing, as such, an attack could hinder Israeli abilities to respond with sufficient swiftness.

 

With Iran controlling Hezballah and the two main terror groups in Gaza, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Israel might very well wake one morning with a war engaging from the north or the south and by the end of the day have a second front break-out on the opposite border thus requiring Israel to commit to a two fronts war. This is not the best of scenarios and would require nearly shutting the country down and calling up virtually all combat reservists. Israel practices such a call-up ever two years just to be able to iron out any difficulties which may erupt as a consequence of such a training mission. When performing such a difficult call-up during a two front war, there would be guaranteed confusion which would take some precious time to iron out. Some of the Commanding Generals on the General Staff have claimed that Israel is incapable of fighting a two front war against the two groups in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon. What could make matters even worse would be if IRGC Iranian troops as well as the Iranian Quds Force also attacked Israel along the Golan Heights and rest of the Syrian border with Bashir al-Assad providing protection from aircraft with his improved S-300 antiaircraft systems as well as giving them air support and artillery support as well. There is even the possibility of the Russian forces in Syria allowing the deploying of their S-400 anti-air defense systems, the most advanced systems the Russians currently deploy. The Russians allowing the use of their advanced F-400 systems might be sufficient coverage against the Israeli F-35 stealth fighters, but maybe not. Such would be the first use official test of the presumed superiority of the F-35 stealth fighters in actual combat against the Russian anti-aircraft systems. Israel would gladly forgo any such war as any time spent in a state of war, especially if it required calling up significant numbers of reserves as that is what results in shutting down much of the Israeli economy. That is what makes any war so costly to Israel, and that is before we have to count the devastating loss of life, especially innocent life on either side.

 

Israel has attempted to express the problem in a number of different ways. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made the threat of the conversion of rockets into guided missiles the central theme of his United Nations speech. He laid out exactly where the underground facilities carrying out the conversion were located including pictures of the soccer field under which two of these conversion sites were operating. He covered the southern Beirut neighborhoods where support operations and coordination was being handled. Prime Minister Netanyahu told that Israel could not allow this threat to continue and grow any further and that should Iran continue using Hezballah to be their proxy with which to attack Israel, that Israel knows the real power behind those forces attempting to destroy the Jewish State. Israel stated that the continued operations to make these missiles into existential threats would force Israel to act and implied that under some circumstances, Israel might find it to her advantage to engage Iran directly to end her supplying Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas with weapons to use against Israel. Trying to avoid an inevitable war has to be frustrating. Where does an Israeli leader turn for help in preventing such a war. There have been messages sent through France, the United States, and even been mentioned in the Al Hayat newspaper where it stated that Israeli National Security Adviser Eitan Ben-David has told French officials that Israel was seeking a diplomatic solution before embarking on a military operation. They cannot claim that nobody warned them any longer and perhaps it is their intention to provoke a war with Israel, but perhaps not at this time. In part of Netanyahu’s speech, he warned Hezbollah that, “Israel knows what you are doing, Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you get away with it.” Also, this past January, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, Brigadier General Ronen Manelis, wrote an op-ed to a Lebanese newspaper in which he directed a warning to Hezbollah that their efforts to manufacture rockets inside Lebanon would plunge the region into war. There is not much more Israel can do yet still the leadership of Hezballah insists on continuing to upgrade their rockets into guided missiles coming ever closer to that number where Israel chooses to act. The resultant war would also be devastating for Lebanon and would almost wipe everything south of the Litani River with the length and breadth of the Bekaa Valley as well as much of Beirut where this work is being conducted. One item which is often overlooked is that Israel also has rockets and numerous guided missiles with which to strike at targets including those buried deep underground. This little fact is also of supreme importance to one individual and any in his bunker with him, dear Nasrallah, we know where you are hiding and even when you change locations, so; you better look out, you better not shout, no threats to Israel you spout and running all about, for the IDF is coming for you.

 

This threat of war can be dismantled and not intentionally made worse and worse until Israel absolutely must strike as leaving such a number of guided missiles ready to strike at the heart of the nation killing untold numbers due to the increased accuracy. Should these guided missiles be utilized on central Tel Aviv striking many of the towers, bringing any of them down would result in a massive loss of life. Such would be an Israeli 9/11, something nobody outside of the Arab and Muslim worlds desire seeing. There would be candy handed out in the streets of Gaza and around the Middle East in celebration of the death of so many Israelis as any who happened to be Israeli Arabs, well, that is what you get for working alongside Jews. These forces including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, IRGC, Quds Force, Palestinian Authority, PLO, the leadership of Iran and others around the Middle East and North Africa, all fight for and pray for and hope for the eventual taking back of the land where Israel currently stands. These forces love this land so much they are willing to burn it to the ground and leaving it a slag heap of radioactive debris which would leave it uninhabitable for the next few decades if not centuries. That is how much they love the land, but it goes with their mantra which states that they love death as Israelis love life, and that is why they will defeat Israel. Their accusation is absolutely correct except that they will not win, as life is stronger simply because it is based on love and light and not on hate and darkness as their culture of death has become. Israel desires to build, invent, plant, nurture and make advances which will benefit all of humankind while they desire to kill, destroy and tear down and then cannot figure out why they are incapable of advancement. Life, light and love must win out here in Israel otherwise the world is at risk of falling into a prolonged dark age which will take science and industry back about a thousand years and leave much of what has been built fallen to the ground in twisted ruins. That is the future we must, as the human race, choose between, light, love and life or darkness, hate and death. We choose life. We give love. We spread light to chase away the darkness. Remember that a single candle with its tiny flame can illuminate an entire room chasing out its darkness even from the corners.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

A Look at the World’s Potential Hotspots

 

There are a number of places in the world which are potential eruption points outside of what the American media would have you believe. President Trump does not even rate a mention in the top few hotspots with a potential for great harm. Some of the places are more of a danger to their own people than they are to the world and others should be center of the rest of the world’s concerns before they explode onto the world scene forcing a response twice has hard, as that is what will be required almost as punishment for allowing these threats to materialize. So, let us look around the world and we can even make some happy and begin with the White House.

 

President Donald Trump in a Moment of Grimace

 

President Trump’s largest threat is to self-injury often through Tweets. He could be the first President to be Tweeted from office though if that will be his fate it will be done via the 2020 elections. The main challenge that President Trump would face if things continue on their current path would be from the primary challengers which are all but certain to come fast and furious from the elite mainstays of the Republican studless elites. One leader of these milquetoast candidates is Arizona Senator John McCain who has been double-guessing President Trump at every turn and fighting against his every suggested legislative order. There will be others whose names will become well known between now and then and another likely candidate might be former Governor of Ohio John Kasich, also one of the last men standing against Trump in the last primaries. There will also be the perennial also-rans who will toss in their hats as one never knows, if Trump could win, why not everybody else? You know the names, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush (unless his shellacking he took has cowed him permanently) and Marco Rubio all claiming they wish to give the Republican Party a real candidate and save the party from ruin from another Trump candidacy. Yes, many in the Republican Party are just as unimpressed with Donald Trump and desire to have a more conventional candidate whom they can control. If the primaries and the few actual real and accurate polls are any indicator, the people are quite impressed with The Donald and despite his eccentricities, they love the fits he is giving the entirety of the political elites and their machinery which they use to drive their chosen agendas. The people are done with these agendas which are the same with the big difference being the speed with which the government is driving towards utter destruction. Donald Trump may be just the President the nation needs despite all the fuss and bother. Yes, a more controlled and sane person who was less out of their mind might be preferable but then it may be just what we are looking for, one eccentric loonie-toon who Tweets too much too often who knows none of the limits any normal person might understand and be withheld by, and who sees a new world where governments take a back seat to a people-business partnership.

 

From Washington D.C. we move south about one continent worth and slightly east to Caracas, Venezuela, where we find the end result of the experiment in what was called the socialist utopia where actors, athletes and other elitists and multi-millionaires or even billionaires habituating the leftmost fringes of the political spectrum went to celebrate the wonderful socialist world being presided over by President Hugo Rafael Chávez. President Chávez would make regular pilgrimages to Castro’s Cuba in deference to the father of socialist utopias. Democratic leaders who believed that Hugo Chávez was the miracle worker who had finally perfected socialism and established that dream they had all claimed had been waiting for just the person who would unwrap the socialist utopian society puzzle they had worked towards all their lives. Hugo Chávez had, according to the great minds from academia to sports to finance on to every field in imagination, established that dream and now if only the world would acknowledge and follow his example. Today Venezuela is one of the most dangerous places to live in the world. The government is gunning down peaceful protesters in the streets. Cuba, the ones who employed Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara at his favorite pastime, murdering innocents, has sent their current best troops of what could be called their Che Division to Venezuela to assist Hugo Chávez’s successor, current Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, with keeping the public order. This includes the aforementioned shooting peaceful demonstrators who are clamoring for food, necessary medicine and numerous others of life’s necessities which they are unable to find in the store’s empty shelves. Large percentages of the population in Venezuela are left to seeking food in dumpsters and the black market for necessary medicines including such as insulin for diabetics, heart medication and other such basic medicines. Venezuela is the perfect example of where socialist governance will eventually result as proven by the Soviet Union, North Korea and now Venezuela. But this will not lead to any of the proponents of seeking the perfect utopian socialist governance and installing it in whatever nation they get the opportunity. Socialism seems as if it is an infection which once contracted can never be cured and leads its victim to seek the ruin of their society in the lusting for that socialist utopia which has failed every single time it has ever been tried, but they refuse to see previous failures as anything other than one more attempt that was not perfected this time and if only they are allowed to try, it will work, they promise.

 

Our next stop is almost halfway across the globe in Asia. We arrive in North Korea where dear leader Kim Jong Un rules absolutely. He lives a lavish lifestyle borderline in comparison to that of Marie Antoinette. The difference is in North Korea Kim Jong Un decides whose head was lopped off instead of Marie Antoinette whose head was sacrificed in the French Revolution. Kim Jong Un decided his uncle was a threat, so he was removed from the population. One of his generals also irked him, so he too was removed from the population. His half brother did nothing except be perceived as a threat to his position, so he also was removed, but from the world’s population. Who knows how many others within the dark nation from which little news escapes and even less is permitted entrance has disappeared. All we know is of late Kim Jong Un has been rattling sabers and acting far less sane than his father or grandfather. Each of his predecessors would act unstable when they desired aid, often food for their starving citizens. But Kim Jong Un acts as insane as either at their height of provocation as his normal daily routine. Kin Jong Un is as unstable as any leader throughout history, even further deranged than Nero or Caligula were during Roman times. Even those closest to him tread very lightly as close proximity to Kim Jong Un does not make one safe, it is more likely to be a threat to one’s life and would require extra caution and, to a degree, one to seek anonymity to avoid notice or to be chosen by Kim Jong Un for special attention and note. Making Kim Jong Un even more dangerous of a threat to the world are his nuclear weapons program and his advancing rocket capabilities. Kim Jong Un has ballistic missiles, come very close to launching an ICBM, and is even closer to a reliable continental ballistic missile. Add to this his nuclear weapons which many believe are designed not for explosive yield but for maximizing its EMP pulse strength which can be used to knock out the electricity to an entire continent as well as destroying virtually all electronic equipment within a sizeable range. North Korea under Kim Jong Un is considered a danger of starting a nuclear war by destroying the power grid in most of North America and bringing the United States to its knees with much of its infrastructure useless and the military paralyzed. But there is more as North Korea has an equally troubling ally in Iran.

 

Iran is a theocracy with a leader who has more titles than one can throw a stick at. He can be referred to as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Absolute Guardianship and the Leadership of the Ummah, Supreme Leader of Iran and Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. No matter who fills other positions such as President or the Parliament are actually relatively powerless in comparison of the religious ruling structure which includes the true power of the Assembly of Experts, a body of Imams. These are the people who choose the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah, the only power with significance above even the Assembly of Experts once they have been chosen. Iran has consistently experimented and developed numerous varieties of ballistic missiles from middle range to continental ballistic missiles and they are working on the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their development has mirrored that of North Korea which is understandable as the two often are found observing one another’s testing of missiles. The frightening reality has been the consistency with which Iranian technicians, nuclear scientists and explosive experts attending nuclear testing in North Korea. This has forced some to claim that some of the testing performed by North Korea of nuclear weapons has been performed for Iran and testing of Missiles in Iran were performed for North Korea. The two imperialist nations are cooperating and both have launched satellites which used polar orbits such that they passed over the United States from the south over Texas and the central United States, a route the USSR had investigated and found to be the soft point in the defenses of the United States. An unsettling truth is that the North Koreans have a satellite using that exact orbit which passes over the central United States on a regular basis and this satellite has no discernable utility and there are some who suspect it has a nuclear EMP device which could be detonated at any point in its orbit after ordering it to lower its orbit to three to five hundred miles where it would be within the optimum altitude for maximum destruction of the American electrical grid and military operational capability. Both North Korea and Iran place the United States as their greatest enemy and one of, if not their number one, target in all of the world. Iran also lists Israel as a nation they will destroy in a single hour or less some day in the not too distant future. Iran holds regular demonstrations every Friday where the people chant “Death to America,” and “Death to Israel.” These are their two propaganda ploys to fulfill the imaginations of the people and the targets Iran claims will prove their supreme power and their approval from Allah and as the sign that they are to lead the Islamic world to their final conquest of the world.

 

Iran and Russia are cooperating, if not cooperating directly, with another hotspot where warfare has been raging for more than five years. This is Syria where the majorities of the nation’s population is homeless and have been targeted by at least one of the numerous forces in the war including their own government. One of the main threats to many of the civilians is their own government where Bashir al-Assad, Syria’s President for life, has targeted those of his population he regards as not sufficiently supportive of his government which has included the Kurds, Palestinian Arabs in refugee camps, and many of the non-Alawite population of what was previously Syria. Assad had bombed virtually every area of Syria which is not part of his power structure with possibly one exception, the Druze whose mountain regions have been spared much of the tragic results in the rest of Syria. The Islamic State was started in Syria as a response to Assad, his Alawite supporters because of their Shiite aligned version of Islam, and their being allies with Iran, the leader of the Shiite Muslims. Syria is the final piece which the Iranians need in order to use their acquiring of southern Iraq which is also Shiite and the home of the government of Iraq. The Islamic State has taken some of their fighters from amongst both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni Muslims desiring to fight against the Shiite Iranians, Iraqis and Syrians who are attempting to complete a Shiite crescent from Iran on the Indian Ocean to Lebanon and Syria along the Mediterranean Sea. Another group fighting alongside the Iranian and Syrian Shiites has been Hezballah, the terrorist group which rules Lebanon through a proxy government and have become the Lebanese Army though they attempt to portray the two as separate. Hezballah is also the Iranian proxy force which they would use to be their initial strike upon Israel such that they could claim to be responding to a Lebanese request for assistance against Israeli aggression. This is one of the interesting themes which often permeate Islamic tacticians where they will attack an enemy and when the enemy responds to the attack, they immediately claim that they were attacked without any provocation and thus they then demand that their victim be punished for what was actually self-defense to the attack from the instigator. This has been the tactics of Hezballah with their previous two wars and numerous skirmishes with Israel as well as the next hotspot, Gaza and Hamas.

 

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

 

Hamas’s new leader, Yahya Sinwar, was a previous prisoner in Israel for his terrorist acts and was released in Shalit exchange. He was the founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas established so that the rest of Hamas, which is simply the support structure for the military wing, can claim to the world that they are simply a governing force in Gaza and have no connection with terrorism. Hamas has at times found Iran as an ally who have provided rocket and missile technologies as well as weapons and explosives often passing these shipments through the Sudan before passing into the Sinai Peninsula and then through the tunnels into Gaza. This has at times included IRGC commanders and experts to teach Hamas workers in the production of ever-larger rockets with greater ranges and payload capability. Then there is the normal Hamas alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood which is their natural ally as they are both Sunni while Iran is Shiite. The fact that Iran assists Hamas simply gives evidence to the hatred and absolute desire to threaten and destroy Israel drives the leadership in Iran. Hamas took control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in a coup during June 10-15, 2007, and since then have attacked Israel repeatedly with Israel having to enter Gaza in a major action three times, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Israel had pulled all Civilians and IDF forces from Gaza in August and September of 2005 which should have permitted the Arabs to build a functioning state in Gaza free of Israeli interference. Instead, once Hamas took control the Gaza has been used as a launching pad for rockets and infiltrations intending to murder Israelis and capture hostages to use to force Israel into releasing terrorists. This is a weakness which the terrorists will continue to exploit for as long as Israel continues to release ever more terrorist prisoners now even releasing terrorists with blood on their hands, the final red line they had promised never to cross. Hamas has been speaking up another war with Israel, as has Nasrallah of Hezballah in Lebanon. One might believe that Hezballah was too involved in Syria but they also figure that a short and limited war using mostly rockets with Israel would renew their standing amongst the Muslim population of Lebanon and if it can be coordinated with attacks by Hamas, perhaps they can have their brief conflict and take only minor damage as Israel could be more entangled with Hamas. Hamas’s new leader immediately talked of his plans to annihilate Israel, as the new Hamas forces would be vastly superior to their Israeli opponents. This type of boasting has been heard before and fortunately, these boasts have not always produced conflict. The Israelis welcome no conflict, as they desire peace with their neighbors, as they prefer not to have to fight and destroy lives and inflict casualties, especially civilians which Hamas and Hezballah both use as human shields to protect their rocket stores and launchers.

 

Russia and Turkey are both involved in Syria and the United States has taken to supporting the Kurdish forces in the northeastern Syrian regions where they mostly defend their areas from attack and are not moving to take new land but merely to push terror forces from their lands and reestablish their areas where their population resided. Turkey has been claiming to fight the Islamic State but mostly have been striking at the Kurds. President Trump mentioned the establishing Kurdistan though, like moving the embassy in Israel, that may be more talk than actual American position. Russia has one major interest in reality, their two naval ports in Syria and on the Mediterranean Sea. These are the Russian warm water ports with access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Gibraltar Straights. Turkey wants to eliminate the Kurds. Islamic State wants to conquer the world starting with Bashir al-Assad. The Syrian Free Army wants to disguise their real alliance with terrorist forces, receive American weaponry, also win against Assad, Islamic State, and then decide where to turn next as they desire as well to be the new Caliphate. Islamic State already declared themselves the new Caliphate. President Erdoğan has laid claim to being the new caliph, nobody saluted. Syria will not be producing any new Caliphate or the next Caliph, it will simply be where too many people have died and will continue to die and there will be young men who have little in their life rushing to join and make a great name so they can return home a hero. All too many will simply never return home. The real fear would be for Russia and the United States to run into a face-to-face conflict by accident or by design of one against the other trying to force a standoff to see who blinks first. There is also a small possibility that Israel could also run into a problem with Russia which there are rumors that the two do communicate normally in order to prevent just such a problem from developing but which could break down if the Russians are proved to be warning Bashir al-Assad or especially if they are warning Hezballah and their suppliers in Iran. At some point Russia is going to have to come to the realization that once Bashir al-Assad either wins back all of Syria or sufficient parts of Syria in the southeast connecting with Iraq and establishing the crescent across the Middle East and giving Iran the ability to mass troops on Israeli borders, then Iran will no longer need Russia and will desire those exact same ports the Russians desire. This could lead to Iran attempting to take the ports from Russia and forcing a confrontation between Russia and Iran.

 

The final front is all of Europe and the United States. The attackers are the terrorists and their so-called “lone wolf” attacks who have been “self-radicalized” which western leaders often just explain, “we have to learn to live with it.” Everything in quotes above is false and the reason we are losing. If these terrorists are all “lone wolves,” then why after each attack does the Islamic State claim responsibility for the attack? The reason is easy to think through, whether they had anything to do with the attack, it was still an attack for Islam and the Islamic State claims to be the leadership of all Islamic fighters, thus these “lone wolves” are all their fighters. The even bigger lie is the claim that they are “self-radicalized.” That is ridiculous as these so-called “self-radicalized” individuals received the information which turned them into a weapon of Islam, and that is what we need to call them, weapons for Islam, as that is what they claim they are, was placed in a video, a booklet, an Imam’s sermons, training in some Muslim country at a terror base protected by the government, or simply from reading the Quran, all come from other than the individual terrorist. In some means or source, they received the information and programming which turned them into a weapon of Islam and set them on their path to human carnage. Whether they are a suicide bomber, a remote detonating bomber who sits off and waits for the perfect time, of the timer placed bomber who simply hopes they chose the perfect time, they all were sent by some form of education and propaganda which they received from somewhere. There is a source and that is an Islamic source either from somewhere in the Middle East, North Africa or other Islamic nation or it is from a Mosque in the neighborhood where the Imam gave a sermon which started the future terrorist on the path and then there were the booklets from the Muslim owned book store with the free pamphlets, or the booklets and videos found on tables at the Islamic Center, or the future terrorist going to a terror base and there received the teachings of radical Islam. These terrorists will strike more and more often in shorter intervals and greater carnage as their techniques are improved. This will hit a point where the people will scream for protection and an end to this threat and their leadership will have to respond or face a very angry populace at the next elections. The people will get the leadership required to fight terrorism and take the steps required even if it takes more than one election. This will eventually lead to an alliance of leaders to end terrorism by whatever means required. This alliance will demand that the Islamic rulers either join the fight or face consequences. George W. Bush said the necessary words after 9/11/2001 and the Trade Center demolition when he said, “Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists.” He said it and then went all wobbly after his Saudi friends apparently took the wind out of his sails. The question which some have to be asking is, “Where is our generation’s Churchill, and when will he appear?” Then in Israel, we are asking whether we need a Joshua, Ruth, Deborah, King David or Samson or will we need to wait for the Messiah. These are the questions which need answering so we will know now whether we are on our own and had better start taking care of ourselves and those dear to us and possibly our countries and civilization.

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

What Happens When the World is Warned and Ignores the Warning

 

Well, the United Nations has been informed and their response was a simple, “Ho Hum” and they went on as if nobody had spoken. They claim that the people have not said anything and query, “Would not the people protest such things?” But why would people make any complaint over their own nation having the military place their weapons in their towns as they would be told this was for their protection. But who is protecting what? Are these weapons of war to protect the people of the town or are the people protecting the weapons from attack? This depends on who you ask and their perspective of the entire matter. Those whose weapons are spread amongst the towns and even in homes will claim that the safety of the people and the weapons are all one and the same. They will tell the world that this is necessary because their enemy is likely to attack at any time with no warning and that this at least allows some of the weapons to survive to defend the people. The enemy is one of the most vicious and heinous of enemies in the entire area after all they have been condemned by the United Nations so many times as to be near countless. Their perfidy has been established by the United Nations Human Rights Council at virtually every meeting even requiring special sessions just to address their acts against people across the entire region. Almost every country across much of the nations included in the MENA alliance (Middle East and North Africa) repeatedly bring complaints against Israel to such an extent that they include almost all measures taken for the nation’s defenses. Anyway, the people have volunteered as they are patriotic and know what the risks are and are willing to assist their national military in this attempt to protect the nation as they see this as their patriotic duty. Additionally, they realize that the military will also be in their location which will only serve to make their towns and villages even safer.

 

There are a few things which should probably be added to clarify this picture. The evil entity which requires all this using of civilian homes and locating weapons stores, rocket launchers and the rockets themselves in and around towns and villages is, in case you did not guess, Israel. The claim is being made by the Lebanese Army. The Lebanese Army has another name with which you are likely more familiar with, Hezballah. Recently the Lebanese government, which is heavily influenced if not controlled by Hezballah, merged their military with the forces of Hezballah, a merger where it is difficult to know which one was more heavily armed. The main difference for Hezballah is they will gain some American weaponry and weapon systems. These weapons and weapon systems include, but are not limited to, M-4 assault rifles, M-16 assault rifles, Barrett M82 50 cal. sniper rifle, M-24 7.62 mm, sniper rifle, M249 squad automatic weapon (SAW), M-60 30 cal. machine gun, M-2 (Ma Deuce) 50 cal. machine gun, M-203 grenade launcher, M-72 LAW (light antitank weapon), M-141 bunker defeat munition (BDM), M-40 105mm recoilless rifle, MK-19 40 mm grenade launcher, and BGM-71 TOW (“Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided antitank weapon). These are the firearms, but wait, there’s more. Wait for it, because here are the vehicles they have provided care of the United States. Starting with the tanks they have M60 Patton main battle tank, M48 Patton main battle tank, M1 Abrams main battle tank, Humvees, M113 armored personnel carrier, AIFV-B-C25 Armored Infantry Fighting Vehicle, M109 self-propelled 155mm howitzer, M198 self-propelled 155mm howitzer, M114 155 mm howitzer, M101 and M102 105 mm howitzer plus jeeps and other various military vehicles.

 

The one item which simply screams at you is the M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks which were recently delivered a mere two years ago. The Obama Administration and military personnel, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a direct query of the Lebanese government as to whether their military was also under or cooperating with the Hezballah terrorist group. From the best we have been able to determine, the question was very likely phrased something like this, “Our friends, the Lebanese government, could you tell us that your military is not aligned in any way and is completely separate from the Hezballah terror group as if it is we could not in good conscience provide you with the A1M1 Abrams main battle tanks.” And somehow the Lebanese government provided the expected guarantees that their military was not aligned in any way and is completely separate from the Hezballah terror group. What a surprise. Who would have ever predicted such an answer? We are surprised as we thought that it was known and understood by even the most casual of observers that Hezballah now ruled Lebanon and had complete control and full access to all military and other such equipment owned or operated by the Lebanese government. We had been under the idea that Hezballah had a majority coalition in the government and had placed their personnel alongside the generals and other command officers within the Lebanese military and that the two had full operational cooperation in all means and measures since immediately after the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel as Hezballah realized they required similar weapons systems to the Israelis, particularly when it came to armored fighting vehicles such as main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, wheeled fighting vehicles and mobile artillery. As Hezballah is not about to be capable of buying such weaponry on the open market because even should some government feel inclined to sell Hezballah such weapons to use against Israel or Islamic State, doing so would place them in a position where they would be considered a pariah amongst nations due to selling weaponry, especially weapons of war, to a known and universally recognized terrorist group.

 

This brings us down to the specific problems. Imagine if Israel were placing their weapons of war inside its towns, cities or villages; placing artillery pieces, rockets and/or missiles as well as their launchers within built up civilian areas and even within people’s homes. Other than the United Nations and the European Union and their member states denouncing Israel, there would be calls universally for weapons embargoes and possibly general trade embargoes and Israel would be excised from the community of nations. But when Israel pointed out to the world that the villages and towns across Lebanon were being utilized by Hezballah to locate their rockets and missiles, their launchers, entrances to their tunnel and bunker systems (which keep their fighters safe but are forbidden to the Lebanese people even including those whose houses hide their entrances), MLRV’s (multiple launch rocket vehicle), fighting and ambush positions, and weapons and ammunitions caches. Hezbollah reportedly has gone so far as to offer reduced-priced-housing to Shiite families who allowed the terrorist group to store rocket launchers in their homes. The Israelis even declassified one of their military maps which had been researched through intelligence and surveillance drones allowing for an accurate and precise location and classification of each location (see map below). Our map only displays the weapons distribution in the Nabatieh region of Lebanon which can be used as a representation of the remainder of Lebanon. This area is also including part of the Bekaa Valley, a Hezballah stronghold, but the entirety of the areas south of the Litani River, which was presumably prevented from Hezballah returning and building up their provisions, weapons stores, rocket and missile launchers and their bunker and tunnel systems by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) which was presumably doubled in size in order to enforce such a return by Hezballah, has now been transformed into an area bristling with offensive weaponry and underground facilities. Their failure was complete enough that one might even suspect they assisted in Hezballah’s efforts in rearming the areas south of the Litani River (see lower map). These was the same identical region from which Hezballah launched their murder and kidnapping raid on an Israeli squad patrolling the border killing eight Israeli soldiers and taking three captive, who they later simply executed.

 

Declassified Map of Hezballah’s Military Infrastructure in Lebanon

 

Southern Lebanon South of Litani River to the Israel Border

 

The reality is that Nasrallah has been threatening Israel rattling sabers and dealing threats. His big threat is that he promises to destroy the huge ammonia storage tank in Haifa, and a nuclear reactor in Dimona. His threats are directly aimed to emphasize high casualty events and declaring the improved accuracy of the Iranian provided missiles which also have far greater range and accuracy than those Hezballah possessed in the 2006 war. He has also expressed that targeting Eilat is within their capabilities which is the southernmost tip of Israel and the furthest from Lebanon. Nasrallah has also warned that when he strikes Israel that it will be due to the Israeli strikes on Hezballah soldiers and innocents in Syria. What he has left out is that the Israeli strikes have been targeting advanced weapons being smuggled into Lebanon which are absolute game changers such as advanced anti-aircraft batteries and heavy weapons. These are legal attacks as Hezballah is a recognized and universally declared terrorist group. Nasrallah is now claiming that these attacks are on Lebanese military stores using the fact that Hezballah has taken control of the Lebanese military absorbing their armaments and the majority of their troops which already consisted of a fairly high overlapping of personnel. The world will soon realize that there is no longer an independent nation of Lebanon but that it has become a simple cover story for Hezballah. The world will likely continue to turn a blind eye to the reality in Lebanon for as long as possible as to do otherwise would create a situation where all travel and trade with Lebanon would become problematic, and the world has sufficient problems and is not seeking another. As far as Europe, the United Nations and likely just about everybody else, the situation in Lebanon will be treated as a purely Israeli problem. The world really does not desire to accept another Syria. What is really sad is that Syria is much of the reason that Hezballah has taken such complete control over Lebanon as Iran simply desired that Lebanon become the final peg in their Shiite Crescent from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea which includes Iran, much of Iraq, Lebanon and they are working on cementing Syria once they retake Syria from Islamic State and the rest of the rebels (see map below). Iran has been working to establish this slash across the Middle East providing them with an opening on the Mediterranean Sea allowing them to become a major player in the Muslim world and as their initial play to bring Shiite Islam into the mainstream and end it being simply the little sideshow playing second fiddle to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Sunni world. This is why the war in Syria is so important to the Iranians, but a war solely in Syria is becoming hard to sell both for Iran and Hezballah at home.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

There is a solution to the Syria dilemma, and that solution unfortunately is Israel. If Iran can sell the war in Syria as their next front against Israel, their people would be more willing to accept the losses being taken by Iranian soldiers from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) fighting in Syria. They could sell such as further support for Hezballah against Israel claiming that Hezballah also sees the advantage to having another front against Israel through the Golan Heights if they can gain control of Syria. Hezballah has all but completely taken control of Lebanon and one last war with Israel and they can use such to finish their takeover and totally divorce the Christians and other opponents from the public domain. Those who have attempted to rescue Lebanon from Hezballah and keep them from taking complete control have been fighting a slowly losing battle. Lebanon is but a slip and a fall from falling into the graveyard of failed terror controlled states across the MENA expanse. Already there are Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan and Iraq with some even including Afghanistan which is falling inch by inch to the Taliban. Even Iran could be considered to be a nation controlled by a terrorist group commanded by the Mullahs and enforced by the IRGC and religious police. The Middle East is facing the danger of falling to any of a number of terrorist entities including but not limited to the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, Hezballah, Taliban, Iran as the IRGC, and other groups such as Boko Harem and smaller groups from Sudan, Somalia and throughout lower Sahara states including Nigeria, Kenya, Niger, Chad and others in what has been called the African Transition Zone (see map below). This is an area currently under threat by Islamist terrorists and considered to now becoming more and more unstable. These are the areas where in the future we will see new failed states in the future. This is an area of the world which, were the West not under threat itself, it would be receiving greater attention but with the world currently so unstable, these nations are going to be left on their own for the immediate future.

 

African Transition Zone

 

The greatest threat looking at the world in the near term future is the area surrounding Syria. Within this area is Lebanon which will soon be lost to the Hezballah terrorists who all but control the area and should there be yet another war started by Hezballah with Israel, part of their reasoning will be that any opposition to their complete control will be more easily destroyed while the world is ignoring their war with Israel and thus not looking at what is happening inside Lebanon beyond what Israel is doing that they can condemn. The United Nations and European Union will both play a large part as they condemn Israel defending herself against Hezballah and their rocket and missile placements within people’s homes, hospitals schools and other public buildings and locations such that they can picture suffering Lebanese victims of Israeli strikes, of course the remains of the rocket launcher in the living room in the bed room will be ignored as that is of little consequence and certainly no reason for a bomb to be dropped on a house. Then there will be the stories of the people who lost everything in the evil Israeli raid and the higher death count than the count in Israel. We will hear all about the disproportionate damage and disproportionate civilian casualties and we will almost hear the question of where are the dead Jews equal to the dead Lebanese. There will be no mention of the obvious difference where the Lebanese are forced to be human shields while Israel provides shelters and defends their civilians keeping them as far as possible from the war, not the first line victims as Hezballah will do. The world will stop turning and all eyes will be on Israel and the lack of casualties by comparison and they will demand to know why so few Israelis have died, why so few, well, do we even need say it?

 

Beyond the Cusp