Beyond the Cusp

June 11, 2019

So, You Thought Hezballah was Merely an Israeli Problem?

 

You read the news and almost every time, if not every time for most, when the Hezballah is reported, it is virtually always to do with Israel or some other conflict in the Middle East. Hezballah is mentioned in threats to fire missiles striking in Israel, tunneling beneath the Lebanon border into Israel with intent of infiltration raids on Israeli civilians, fighting alongside Bashir al-Assad Syrian forces aided by Iran and the IRGC in Syria, aiding with training as well as fighting allied with the Houthi rebel forces in Yemen and in that rare occasional report which mentions the tri-border region in South America where Hezballah has a series of training areas where Argentina shares borders with Brazil plus Paraguay. The areas you almost never hear references to Hezballah is in Europe, Asia, North America and southern Africa. Perhaps this is due to such events being swept neatly under the legal carpet presumably for the common good of the society. After all, no political figure wants to hear the news reporting of any Hezballah plots to carry out an attack using three or so metric tons of an explosive, say, ammonium nitrate, anywhere near their district, city, county, state or country, all depending on the political level which would be so threatened. Perhaps the political pressures could affect the way in which any such threat would be detected, investigated, possibly prosecuted or, to avoid any undue strain on the body politic, and arrange for other means of handling those involved.

 

Well, guess what. That is right, such a terror threat which was foiled with minimal fanfare and without anyone being charged, that despite one initially being arrested, all because the timing was off. This has come to light thanks to a deep investigation carried out by The Telegraph where it was reported that Hezballah had been caught planning a terror strike in or around London with, you guessed it, using metric tons of ammonium nitrate. MI-5, assisted by the London Police Department, uncovered the stash containing thousands of disposable ice packs filled with ammonium nitrate. This amount was considerably more than was used in the Oklahoma City bombing that killed 168 people and damaged hundreds of buildings. The raids were carried out on three businesses and one home in North West London by MI-5 and authorities after a months-long investigation. It was stated that MI-5 was acting on a tip from a foreign government which uncovered the major terrorist plot linked to the radical Islamist terror organization and Iranian ally, Hezbollah.

 

Here is where everything becomes interesting and contains a political attempt to cover up the entire series of events as they came at an inconvenient time. What makes it all the more intriguing was that there was one suspect, a man in his forties, arrested in connection with the raids, though he was later released without charge. The fact that only one person was detained, and then no charges made concerning a plot of such size makes for numerous questions to arise. What had authorities so worried that there was a code of silence concerning the entire affair and no arrests, trials or other ramifications from a months long investigation. Presumably, citing “well-placed sources”, the report claimed that the terror plot had been disrupted by a covert intelligence operation “rather than seeking a prosecution,” which is puzzling. Where things become somewhat clearer is when we are told that this plot was timed during the time of the negotiations and pending of the Iran nuclear deal. This was where The Telegraph suggested that the matter was withheld from the public in order to keep “the Iran nuclear deal afloat.” Still, it was reported that the plot was so serious that then Prime Minister David Cameron and then Home Secretary Theresa May were personally briefed on the discovery of the explosive material. One need not read much further to see where to begin to look to see the origination of the demand that this be kept as quiet as possible and not to make any large display including arrests which could have led to some very uncomfortable complications. After all, this was around the point that the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and we all knew instinctively that nothing, and we mean nothing, was to come between the P5+1 and the Iran deal.

 

UK supporters of extremist group Hezbollah

UK supporters of extremist group Hezbollah

 

The British public has every reason to be quite put out by such political suppression of such an important investigation to the point that there were no arrests or other actions taken beyond raids to impound the explosives while not pursuing further actions. We ask, how is it possible to have such a plot with three-metric tons of explosives but not have any people involved with the use of the explosives or even a group planning for its use. Nobody was found or even to be of interest to MI-5 or the London Police concerning what was definitively a major pending terrorist attack. This cover-up probably extended to high officials in the British government requesting the silence on whomever the unidentified foreign government which provided the initial tip to the British assisting in their preventing a potential tragedy. They were likely contacted and had the situation explained and thus the request for not reporting their efforts in preventing the attack. The threat of terrorism is far too great and is of great importance to the people of every nation. Such an attempt would be politically important as well as the right for the people to know the truth about the world we all live within. But the news and the ruling elite do not treat the people in all too many countries as being capable of handling the truth. Kind of reminds one of the critical lines from some movie. So, because the people are too unsophisticated, too ignorant, so delicate, so uneducated and so emotionally unstable that they are deemed not capable of living in a world where they are told what the reality actually is. This is why the news granted for public consumption is not the reality of the world but a picture of a world with just the right kind of problems which permit the political class to remain in power unchallenged and apparently with everything under control. Telling the people that a significant threat of a terror attack was planned in their precious city and was very probably prevented due to some unmentionable country providing a warning with sufficient information that MI-5 and the police could clean up the threat without even a ripple being told to those who were under this threat. Makes one feel as if the public is not entitled to the truth as they presumably cannot handle the truth.

 

 

This is where society has reached, the stage where there are two worlds, the one we are all left sleeping peaceably in our beds each night assured that all is well meanwhile the elites know the reality that they are fortunate that terror threats are discovered and it matters not by whom as long as the people are able to be left in blissful ignorance. This is a sad commentary on our societies as it provides a picture where the people are expected to simply accept the reality fed them by a coordination of the political class and their media allies. The media also does not believe that the people can handle reality, so they sell the people a story-line which lulls them into a sense of being fully protected and safe. The powers that be insist on keeping everyone within the lines they set out for the public and the media and the politicians work to provide as little of the real threats from being identified as it might upset their ability to be reelected, and that is all that matters, right? Why should the people expect for their ruling elite who are chosen time after time to return to their comfortable little jobs while the decision to place trust in these elected officials is all a mirage. So we have what is an important treaty in the wings, well, better not tell the people that those who the politicians are about to make a deal concerning the manufacturing of nuclear weapons were planning what would have been one of the largest terror attacks for somewhere in London to be executed by the terrorist groups which handles the worldwide terror network for the Iranians. The politicians wanted the treaty as it would allow for trade and making large profits for the people who really matter, so the regular folk need not be troubled with any such information which could be distressing. This goes double if it might make for difficulty in carrying on business as usual and making their financiers happy. So, rest easy, they made raids and took away all the explosives and nobody was responsible for the planned terror strike or for hiding three metric tons of explosives, it all just assembled all by itself without any human intervention. And not to worry, the people planning the attack would never attempt to try so again, they probably promised. You know, they promised that they would go home and never try such an attack as was spoiled again just as Iran has promised not to manufacture nuclear weapons or more advanced ballistic missiles, you know, just like the ballistic missiles they have been testing. Read about these tests here, here, here, here and here. We hope you have a nice day and remember not to worry; your worrying would only upset the governing class.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 17, 2019

Iran Pushing the Envelope

 

Iranian forces, including their fast-ships, have been striking and sabotaging oil tankers as they pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus far, they have yet to damage a ship such that it leaked oil, was disabled or sank. These attacks have technically broken past the level that President Trump stated could merit a response from the American forces in the region. That leads one to wonder if, when and what it will take to rise to the level where President Trump cannot any longer ignore these provocations. This leads to an entire series of further questions as to whether Iran will settle for renegotiating with the United States or push until they force a confrontation. The question which is most important remains whether or not inevitably there will be any actual meeting of the two forces, Iran and the United States. Guess we could say that is the billion-dollar question.

 

We can assume that President Trump would prefer to force negotiations which does not mean that he will ignore almost any level of provocation. That leads to what exactly are the intentions of the Iranian leadership, which boils down to is the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set upon pressing matters beyond the breaking point. That is where this entire scenario becomes a nightmare. Ali Khamenei appears to be set on pushing this into a military conflagration between Iran and the United States and top that off by having Hezballah and likely Islamic Jihad and Hamas attacking Israel with a heavy missile and rocket bombardments just as their Supreme Leader, the heads of the IRGC and a number of other officials have promised will be part of any conflict in the Middle East. You may ask, why would Iran engage both the United States and Israel as doing so would only endanger Iran even more. What the Iranians believe is that by promising to target Israel, this would make it more difficult for the United States to actually engage Iran. This is unfortunate as threatening Israel will have little if any influence upon any decisions which President Trump will be forced to make should Iran continue escalating their strikes on shipping. Iran might even go farther and attack ground targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia or any of the other Gulf States. That would force a confrontation as such a threat to oil shipments and production would cause havoc with oil prices which would be another means for forcing the confrontation with the United States. The bad news is that things do appear as if the Iranians, specifically the IRGC, will not end their escalations until they force an American response. That could then lead to an ever-widening Middle East war.

 

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, one of the foremost Middle East experts, predicts with his article, “The Third Gulf War has already begun,” that the only item still undecided is the date when the unavoidable war will begin and how fast and far will it expand to the rest of the Middle East. We here in Israel have been trying to ignore the slowly heating of the Persian Gulf and instead watching the Eurovision being held currently in Tel Aviv. There is nothing like an entertaining distraction right when one is so badly needed. We, unfortunately, have little interest in the singing contest and far more interest in what our immediate future holds. One thing which cannot be said is that life is boring here in Israel. We just had ten-thousand screaming mad fire-, stone- and explosive-throwing rioters protesting Nakba Day along the Gaza border this past week. This was taken for what it actually is, just the next installment of the Arab attempts to make our lives unbearable. The vast majority of Israelis are made out of sterner stuff than folding before such threats. This is even more valid an argument when things could always be so much worse and the threats so much more frightening. Even then, the Israeli response is to simply respond as the situations require. Any attacks which are tractable to Iran, then Israel has promised that Iran would feel some part of the response. The truth is we would really prefer to live in peace allowing us to pursue making discoveries, treatments, inventions and other advancements which would advance and improve the lives of people around the world in the process.

 

Should Dr. Kedar prove correct, once the conflagration between Iran and the United States initiates, then we would hope that the Iranian threat to involve Israel was bluster and not an actual threat which they will follow through upon. If Hezballah were to initiate aggressions against Israel, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has promised a response which will bring the ability of Hezballah and Lebanon to conduct any further aggressions to a halt as rapidly as Israel is able. Fortunately, Prime Minister Netanyahu did not promise “shock and awe” type of attack as was the threat which was made by President George W. Bush against Iraq and Saddam Hussein. The initial attack proved to appear less shock and awe because the attacks were specific and struck only those targets desired thus limiting the collateral damage, additional suffering, and a less impressive display than what many expected. Simply put, it was a far cry that the bombings conducted during World War II in which cities were laid to waste. The most well known of such attacks was the firebombing of Dresden (see image below). That was the original shock and awe. Hopefully the world will never again know destruction such as Dresden as well as Tokyo and, of course, Hiroshima and Nagasaki of World War II. These are exactly the threats which Iran has threatened to unleash. We should all hope that, to use an old western America phrase, Iran is all hat and no cattle. The unfortunate reality is the Iranians may be dead set on causing a stampede unleashing as much cattle as they can lay their hands upon. May any actual exchange be short and cause the minimal number of casualties and end almost before it starts.

 

Image of Dresden Firestorm Consuming the City

Image of Dresden Firestorm Consuming the City

 

The best would be no conflict and a peaceful resolution. But we have two blustering leaders who both are very unlikely to be bluffed or pressured into backing down. On the Iranian side, their leadership from the Supreme Leader, President, IRGC commanders and others are all threatening maximum levels of force even to threatening to destroy the American fleet with a single missile. This has been interpreted as likely a threat to use an EMP device though a nuclear tipped missile would also fit the bill and should not be put beyond the Iranian intent. They have promised similar total devastating attack upon Israel which would instigate a similar response against all attacking forces as well as likely an attack on Iran. So, if the question is are the Iranian leaders suicidal? They have responded to this question already stating that they would consider the complete and total destruction of Iran a reasonable price to pay if that is what was necessary for the destruction of Israel and the United States. All we can assume is that this is probably the most dangerous threat the world has faced in years. The near future promises, as things currently stand, to be filled with threats which could lead to a war spreading beyond the initial borders, even beyond Israel. The Iranians are counting on Russia coming to their aid. Russian President Putin probably is not feeling as attached and ready to aid Iran as the Iranians believe which could prevent any conflict from spreading outside the Middle East, as if that is not horrible enough. Things could not stand to be much worse than they now sit, may the threats pass without incident.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 23, 2018

Steps to Real Israeli Deterrence

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:57 AM
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Establishing deterrence has been a topic of debate amongst the Israeli leadership. There is one main problem, and that is the fact that currently the Prime Minister is also the Defense Minister as well as holding two other Ministerial positions making him almost a majority all by himself. Israel is currently in a frightful position as it appears that Prime Minister/Defense Minister/almost the entire government in a person Bibi Netanyahu has been struck with a dreaded condition we refer to as Galutitis, which is defined as being frozen to inaction over an overbearing fear of what others will think or possibly react. In the case of Netanyahu, his fears appear to be over what the Europeans will think, say or do. He is so tuned into what the world including the always-oppositional United Nations and its numerous appendage organizations, that he freezes when the time comes to approve military action. The result has been that he orders the military to use roof knockers, to allow everyone in a location to be struck time to depart the building, that includes the terrorists and their leadership, so that when the building is struck, not a single hair on anyone’s head is even singed. So Hamas launches rockets which in the last barrage did kill one Palestinian Arab living in Israel illegally, karma, and did cause a degree of damage while the IDF struck a number of Hamas structures resulting in virtually no casualties. Hamas aims to murder as many civilians and had one shell recently land in a kindergarten a mere twenty minutes before it opened to tens of children, and Israel does everything possible to only strike empty buildings. This is not the means to establishing any deterrence.

 

So, what would it take to establish a serious deterrence which would allow for Israel to feel a prolonged period or possibly even permanent peace? That is a sticky proposition. When the main aim if those who are attacking you is to die in the process such that they gain immortality in their next life with seventy-two raven haired perpetual virgins and endless wine which does not ever make one ill but simply provides a pleasant sensation where there are streams, waterfalls and fields of grass in a pleasant atmosphere and every day is perfect; then threatening their lives does nothing as death is their ultimate goal after killing as many innocents as possible. This is often why terrorists refuse to surrender and start shooting at an entire platoon of IDF soldiers simply to get to the virgins and perfect lush green land with streams and waterfall. This fact that the terrorists often enter into their attacks hoping to end up dead and there have been a fair number who would continue attacking even after police or IDF forces came upon the scene often charging at the armed official personnel screaming “Allahu Akbar” with their weapon in the ready attempting to be shot and killed. Some, even after being shot and injured and caught being surrounded by IDF soldiers all of whom are armed only to have these injured terrorists jump to their feet and attack the soldiers repeatedly for as long as they are physically able in their attempt to be killed and sent to a better life. The problem Israel faces is how to deter people to whom death is a desired end. This is the dilemma facing Israeli leadership and is not going to be an easy one to find a solution as threats to the actual terrorists will be absolutely useless as there exists no threat which would actually deter their attacking Israelis, and often Israeli unarmed civilians.

 

Since the terrorists are seeking immortality in the next life which they are told they will be guaranteed such rewards should they die while attempting or actually murdering Israeli civilians, guaranteeing that any terrorist caught in the act will not be taken into custody but instead will be shot dead at the scene of their attack would probably encourage more rather than less terrorism. What should Israel threaten, that they will catch all terrorists and treat them with kid gloves and place them in a place where we will keep them well fed and medically treated such that they have a long life in this world? Obviously, Israel is going to have to think outside the box, so to speak, and find something which the terrorists will fear sufficiently such that they will be forced to think twice before committing any acts of terror. Israel attempted house demolition which the Palestinian Authority (PA) answered by building new homes right where the destroyed house used to sit. The PA has also promised to provide the terrorist, should they survive, or their family, should they succeed in reaching that life after with or without the promised virgins and perfect green and water-filled world, a salary based on the numbers of Israelis killed and other particular bonuses for certain other delineated options, which is greater than the average salary of PA employees, for the rest of their lives or as long as the PA continues to be so generously funded by Western nations, particularly European nations and the European Union. In Gaza, the economy is in such a state that unless you are in the business of smuggling items for Hamas and Islamic Jihad or other support of their terrorist war, that you are left living a life destitute simply because the governance is a terrorist group which diverts virtually all the provisions, materials provided for infrastructure and cash flow into their terrorist endeavors such as building tunnels within Gaza, infiltration tunnels into Israel which get destroyed, rocket production, mortar production and whatever is the most recent terror weapons which has established an upper class. The terrorist efforts which is the main goal of Hamas and Islamic Jihad takes virtually all of the economic production leaving nothing for a healthy working class in Gaza so the people have mostly lost hope and simply follow the government line that their poverty is caused by Israel and only by destroying Israel and murdering the Jews will their lives improve. To the north, Hezballah is funded and armed by Iran and attacks Israel when ordered to do so by Iran and for that there is no deterrence unless the fanatic leadership in Iran can be threatened, and even that is not necessarily guaranteed that it would work.

 

If at this point you are thinking that each of the three terror fronts poses different forms of threat, each with its own formula and that none of them could be deterred by any of the normal routes which have proven to be deterrents in the past, you are quite perceptive. There is only one thread which runs through all three threats, they are in specific regions and all their eggs are pretty much in one or two baskets for each group. Hang with us as we build this up and assemble the only means that Israel has to deter aggressions against her people and secure her borders. The first threat which should be addressed should be either the threat in Gaza from Hamas and Islamic Jihad or the threat in the Shomron where the PA governs. The first thing one need recognize is that both of these zones are ruled by terrorist groups despite what Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn says. The first fact which need be established is what were the intended borders for the Jewish State derived from the 1922 San Remo Conference and agreements reached between the British and the Zionist Congress to permit for the Arab state of Jordan east of the Jordan River and the Jewish State of Israel west of the Jordan River before the British gifted the Golan Heights to the French Mandate region giving it to Syria and denying it to Israel. The best way to establish this is to show the map below which shows exactly what we are describing. Any final determination which actually will provide Israel with defensible borders and fulfill the promises made between the two World Wars in a number of treaties, will serve to provide additional security for Israel. With this understanding of the reality under International Law and enforceable by the United Nations under Article 80 of their Charter where they assumed the responsibility for the establishment of the Mandate systems established after World War I by the League of Nations, can guide the final determinations as to what borders are required satisfying all the necessary requirements. All of this is easily proven and does not recognize any additional Arab state west of the Jordan River or in Gaza and under these established laws, while there must be no interference in the religious, economic and numerous other rights of the Arabs residing within the Jewish State, the rules of these treaties allows Israel to refuse them political rights. This means that while Israel must be as cordial and allow the Arabs and any others who are not Jewish to continue with their lives largely unaltered, Israel is not required to permit them to have the vote and could do as they have allowed the Arab communities to rule themselves in local areas but not have the vote in national elections, this is how the Arabs are in the annexed eastern Jerusalem, they can vote in Jerusalem elections but not in Israeli national elections. Now to discuss the deterrence which must be found if Israel and the surrounding Arabs can find some way of coexistence without either side attempting to murder the others.

 

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

 

The initial step to forming a safe and secure Israel comes from responding to any assault upon the body of Israel such that it ends any threat from the region which is causing the distress. For argument sake, this paragraph we will be looking at Gaza and addressing the PA in the next paragraph. Eventually, even if Israel completely ignores all else and continues providing electricity and natural gas to Gaza despite their not paying for these provisions, Hamas or Islamic Jihad will be ordered by Iran to launch attacks on Israel. Upon the second, no later than the third, day of rockets raining down upon innocent Israelis and regardless of whether they are striking only in the Negev Desert or have the temerity to strike Tel Aviv, Haifa and/or Jerusalem, Israel should announce an ultimatum that if the launching of projectiles, even including the incendiary balloons and kites, does not completely halt by sundown, then the people of Gaza may not see the next sunrise. When one of these ultimatums is ignored, which actually will probably be the first time, then Israel should completely destroy every site used by the terrorists, destroy every rocket making machine shop, level the homes of every Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders’ homes, destroy the mall, the water park, the fancy restaurants and everything which those who live comfortably off of the terror war treasure and then the next morning make the final announcement. The final announcement will be simple, the population of Gaza has to decide what they want. If they wish to remain, then they will accept Israeli law and rule living in peace, then they will feel the benefit of real governance which is not based on terrorism and the destruction of Israel at the cost of the people and their futures. Those who wish to depart and begin their lives elsewhere, Israel will provide a small incentive to assist with their beginning anew. The amount could arguably be anything from twenty-five-hundred dollars to as much as twenty-thousand dollars, using dollars so that the currency would be accepted anywhere on the planet, and we promise not to chase after you. Finally, anyone who refuses both offers and plan on continuing the terror war, know that Israel will solve these threats in a biblical manner. For those who are unsure what that means, it means we will come and kill you, your family, your animals, your vehicles, your home, your business and those of your family and all those who assisted you and their families. That might provide an idea that Israel has decided the war from Gaza must end and are taking back the area as we were promised we could by the world when in 2005 we disengaged from Gaza to provide the Palestinian Arabs a chance to prove they could live in peace and instead they gave us terror wars and no peace. The entirety of the leadership of the various terror groups, should they survive the night, will be sent packing with a warning that should they return, they will be shot on sight.

 

In the Shomron where the PA believes that, they were promised that Israel could be forced back within the Green Line by the Oslo Accords. That is about as wrong headed as they could misinterpret what was stated. The region was divided into three regions, Area A, Area B, and Area C. Area A was recognized as belonging to the PA and where they would rule without Israeli assistance or interference unless they desired such. Area C was to be given for Israeli settlement and to become part of Israel. Area B was the region where cooperative rule was the case and was the region where borders were to be determined with the PA and Israel each being able to claim parts of that region. Even before anything further comes along, Israel needs to annex all of Area C leaving Areas A and B and even small regions of Area C such that these regions are interconnected making a smooth border between what is Israel and leave the remainder to the PA. This should be done immediately as it would provide a wake-up call for the leadership of the PA, also known as Mahmoud Abbas, that Israel was done with his games and the false negotiations which has been used to drive Israel from lands which are legally hers. The reality is that all of these areas belong to Israel under International Law unless Israel officially disengages from the land in permanence, something which Oslo Accords was not establishing. Should the PA through their various means of instigating a general uprising, usually incited with claims that the Jews are destroying the Dome of the Rock or desecrating the al-Aqsa Mosque just as Mahmoud Abbas did causing the stabbing Intifada using the video below, then Israel would be required to act. Such announcements are used by Mahmoud Abbas and the other leadership of the PA use to cause an uprising which they then claim is completely caused by Israel. Upon such instigation in the future, Israel need warn Mahmoud Abbas that Israel will no longer tolerate such instigations fomenting terrorist violence. Should he continue or allow the leadership to continue to foment terrorism, then Israel should simply remove all of those who are part and parcel of the PLO and other terrorist functions in their regions. Israel could then inform the leadership and security forces of the PA, should they persist in their calling for violence and the death of Israelis, they will no longer be welcomed within the borders of Israel which does include their regions. Then, should they ignore that last warning, the final warning is that they have until sunset to leave Israel including all the lands west of the Jordan River or they will be eliminated. That night, the IDF under guidance and direction of the Israeli intelligence, they should arrest all of the leadership of the PA, PLO, Fatah and the security forces simply eliminating all of those who resist. The next morning we would then place these leaders on an aircraft and take them to a prearranged foreign nation where they would be allowed to take refuge knowing that should they ever set foot within Israel ever again, they will be shot dead. Then the remainder of the people of the PA will be provided the same options as were described be given in Gaza. Israel should also offer the same incentive for anyone living in Israel who would rather live elsewhere.

 

 

Hezballah in Lebanon is a completely different situation as they are the military anti-Israel and anti-Zionist solution and continuous threat to Israel. Hezballah follows pretty much the same rules and follow the same usage as does the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) with the one basic difference being that the IRGC is used to perform attacks anywhere in the world such as the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina building bombing in Buenos Aires (see image below). The IRGC is also suspected of the bombing of the Israeli embassy in the same time period in Buenos Aires. As Hezballah is located in Lebanon, they are not in lands which were in any way promised Israel. Their attacks, as they are now a major part of the governance in Lebanon, are now also a state of war between the two nations. Additionally, the United Nations Security Council established and empowered UNIFIL to establish and enforce a demilitarized zone in southern Lebanon in order to end the threat from Hezballah and prevent their establishing bases and attack formations along the Israel border. A simple answer is that they absolutely failed and should be removed before they are used by Hezballah as human shields for their command and control bunkers which many are built adjacent to UNIFIL offices and depots. Past Hezballah usage of civilian housing from which to launch rockets, for ambush sites and storage of munitions, rockets and other equipment necessary for their attacks conveys their propensity which infers that they would use the UNIFIL forces as human shields. Since the UNIFIL presence is in no way any deterrence to Hezballah actions along the border and in the future could become human shields, they should be removed and declared a failure. This would be wise as a means of preserving their lives and cutting the cost of an otherwise useless effort.

 

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

 

Hezballah is currently armed with one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and, using Iranian provided guidance packages, have started altering their larger rockets into guided missiles. Any provocation by Hezballah need be taken up initially with the government of Lebanon. They would need to be told that they are responsible for preventing attacks by Hezballah from their territory. Israel should then issue a declaration of war against Hezballah and Lebanon as a response to provocations coming from within Lebanon. The reason for declaring the war on both parties is due to the fact that they are inseparable and in order to fight Hezballah, it becomes necessary for Israel to attack much of Lebanon south of the Litany River, the Bekaa Valley as well a southern Beirut as all of these are regions used by Hezballah. Israel should also inform Hassan Nasrallah, the promoted leader of Hezballah, that he will be one of the first targets which Israel will strike. He probably believes that because he almost never comes above ground that Israel does not know where he is hiding, he should not be feeling so safe. When it comes to Hezballah, there would be no use using the same offers used for Gaza and the PA region as the members of Hezballah are in the pay of Iran and chose to exist solely for the sake of the destruction of Israel upon orders from Iran. There is no means of deterrence possible concerning Hezballah because they are an arm of the Iranian military world forces and they are dedicated to destroying Israel, a similar desire as their Quds Force which is dedicated to the capture of Jerusalem. With Hezballah, there are no incentives which would influence their actions as they are under orders as they come from Tehran and the Iranian government, specifically their Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. When the time comes that Iran turns Hezballah loose on Israel, the only choice Israel will need make is whether they desire expanding this coming war which is unavoidable, should they also take out as much of Iranian leadership as is readily attainable. As far as Hezballah is concerned, Israel should use all the force which is readily available for targeting Hezballah positions throughout Lebanon, Syria and anywhere else they may be located even to include Iraq. Once the entirety, or as close as humanly possible, of Hezballah forces, rockets, launchers, weapons stores, manufacturing and other infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, then Israel will need to face Iran and either extend the war to include Iran and their leadership, their military locations (especially the IRGC bases) and anything which does not cause the people to pay a price as they are not the enemies of Israel. Were we the ones who made these decisions, we would probably advise Iran that we have identified those responsible for the causing of the war with Hezballah and that perhaps they had made a potentially fatal mistake. Then we would select the most fanatical of those people and allow for them to have some terrible accidents. But any conflict with Hezballah need to be fought as a war between two nations, as Hezballah has already stated that they control the military of Lebanon. Israel could inform the Lebanese military that those forces which remained in stand down they would not be attacked but as soon as they appeared to be taking action, they would be targeted. Hezballah must not have any of its leadership and none of its military equipment surviving any conflict down to the last bullet. It needs to be a complete war with no quarter given from the very beginning as Hezballah has grown into an existential threat to Israel and as such, it cannot be permitted to have any abilities remaining from which to rebuild, period.

 

The final word on deterrence for Israel, that comes down to announcing a policy of no quarter for those who try to harm our people. The next step is to follow through completely on that promise. The price of targeting Israel must be made very expensive for any party which decides to target Israel. The tamping out flare-ups attempting to do the least amount of damage and completely avoid casualties of our enemies has proven completely ineffective. Continuing in this exact same scenario while our enemies continue to gain abilities to cause us more and more harm and casualties, then Israel will eventually be facing threats which will surpass anything we are capable of surviving. We have seen this with the continual increase in the threats from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah to such a point that they each may not be capable of destroying Israel, but should all our enemies combine their forces, then the survival of Israel could be challenged. That is why Israel must take the stand that we will no longer suffer these malevolent threats with benign responses. We must meet force with far greater force and threats with total destruction such that none of these threats survives their attempts to cause us such threats. Never Again used to have meaning and it is time to return to such an approach to the threats out in the world as they are only going to grow with time, so it has come time that Israel return to the motto of Never Again.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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