Beyond the Cusp

June 4, 2019

Israel Facing Challenges but Remains Paralyzed

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:59 AM
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Israel is facing challenges, that is probably one of our biggest understatements. Yahya Sinwar, the current Hamas Leader and former leader of the Hamas Military Wing and one of its founding members and an extremist with zealous hatred for Zionism and Jews, has recently threatened that he would strike Tel Aviv with twice as many rockets should hostilities break out. He paid homage to Iran for providing rocket motors, actual rockets of various sizes, ranges and payloads thanking them profusely. Yahya Sinwar is making threats speaking of what he will do should war break out all the while planning various numbers and types of attacks all in an attempt to murder Israelis, destroy any production, destroy IDF positions hoping to kill or injure Israeli soldiers, launching kites and balloons with incendiary devices attached targeting crop lands, wildlife preserves, forests, kibbutzim, communities and wherever else they strike the ground and a new wrinkle with the introduction of drones dropping relatively large incendiary packets on targets as well as the normal rockets with several-hundred rockets fired about one month ago starting in early May virtually all targeting civilian targets. These were fired in order to disrupt the Eurovision contest in Tel Aviv but fortunately the few rockets fired towards Tel Aviv were intercepted by the Iron Dome systems as were numerous other rockets. Still, despite the great record of the Iron Dome, every system has limits and a few rockets reached targets destroying some structures including homes with at least one person killed and a number wounded with others suffering shock requiring treatment. These Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacks have struck kindergartens, pre-schools, residential areas, playgrounds and other similar civilian targets and almost none targeting anything of a military nature such as IDF bases or positions. So, Yahya Sinwar is threatening to strike more civilian targets and perhaps attempt a rocket swarm attack on Tel Aviv in an attempt to guarantee some rockets strike the city as if he were the one on the defense and not as being the one responsible for instigating conflict and violence. Reporting, as the article above, will use titles and writing like, “Israel launches strikes after hundreds of rockets fired from Gaza,” implying that Israel fires first and only after reporting about Israel striking, do they report that Israel fired in response to attacks and not instigating them.

 

Then there is the Iranian armed and trained army in southern Lebanon and engaged in Syria in the form of Hezballah. This terrorist force has estimated at least one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes, ranges, payloads and targeting abilities. The image below depicts some of the rockets and missiles Hezballah used during the last conflict and is not a complete reflection of their current capabilities which have been augmented and improved with many of their rockets given guidance upgraded into missiles. Two reports based on Israeli intelligence reveal the GPS-guidance upgrades meant to improve the rockets’ accuracy, have been provided by Iran using the IRGC. The lower map shows the underground locations of the facilities, where the guidance packages were added to rockets transforming them into guided missiles, located close to the Beirut International Airport, the location of these systems being imported. This was amongst other signs that Iran is upgrading Hezballah capabilities which implies that either these upgraded weapons are for use in the Syrian civil war or Iran has plans for another war along the Israeli northern border. This was further suggested when IDF units discovered infiltration tunnels from Lebanon into northern Israel ranging in length, depth and sophistication implying their improved technology being provided leading to the more advanced deeper tunnels (bottom picture showing inside one tunnel). With Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah all linked to Iran and taking their orders from Tehran, as Hamas admitted the latest rocket attacks were ordered by the Iranian government, the worst case scenario where Israel would face terrorist attacks from all three groups forcing Israel to defend both the northern and southern borders simultaneously is growing more and more inevitable. Currently, Hamas is making the loudest threats, but that does not rule out Hezballah also taking part in any new aggressions against Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezbollah’s Secret Sites for Conversion of Inaccurate Rockets into Precision Guided Missiles
 

 

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently took shots at Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, claiming he has failed to protect Israel, Tweeting, “A few Arab rulers believe that if they follow Netanyahu, they’ll be able to achieve their illusions. But Netanyahu has failed to protect Israel, despite his Iron Dome, so how can he protect THEM?” Additionally, Iran held Al-Quds Day rallies replete with chants against the Saudi royal family, the Islamic State group mingled with the traditional cries of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” There was also the apparently mandatory burning of American and Israel flags along with effigies of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Quoting from the article, “Death to the House of Saud and Daesh (IS),” demonstrators chanted. “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and “Death to the UK.” Well, guess we should be honored to have such distinguished list of other nations with which Iran apparently is having their difficulties, though we were unaware of their problems with the UK as they are still signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Still, much of the reporting will only include their animosity towards Israel and President Trump.

 

The Iranian threat to the world should not be ignored as it is a real threat to begin a horrific war using every weapon at their disposal which we fear includes a fair number of nuclear warheads and missiles with the range and targeting accuracy to cause major damage to all in the Middle East and into Northern Africa with direct threats against Saudi Arabia along with her Gulf States allies as well as Egypt, Jordan and Israel. Iran has also mastered launching ballistic missiles with over a thousand-mile ranges out of cargo ships where the missiles are hidden under what appear to be containers and freight packaging. The number of these ships so outfitted is unknown as well as their registration and nation of origins. Iran could easily utilize any of their allies’ cargo vessels for such purpose which would imply that they might have such missile launching ships licensed with Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia or any of several other allies as well as any nation with loose regulatory control over ship licenses. Simply put, Iranian cargo vessels with concealed ballistic missiles could have almost any national flag from amongst the many options making detecting them even more difficult. Such ballistic missiles could have any of a number of warheads ranging from high explosive and incendiary all the way to chemical or biological warheads or potentially nuclear or EMP warheads which cause damage beyond most countries ability to repair or even survive. Add to the equation that Iran sent a naval fleet intending to station the ships for a few months as an intended threat and as a message to President Trump that America is not as safe as perhaps he thinks.

 

Meanwhile, many in the media and those with a distinctly leftist political view will claim that all the problems in the Middle East, if not the world, are directly traceable to Israel while ignoring Iran. All one needs do to realize the truth is look around the Middle East and look at who has fighters there, be they terrorist provided for by Iran or their IRGC foreign fighters. In Lebanon there is what has to be considered a terror army in Hezballah. Move across to Syria and there are Hezballah fighters and IRGC units. Moving on to Yemen and the two, Hezballah and the IRGC, are both involved here as well. Then there is the Tri-border region where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have a common border and all three blame the other two for the problems in the region (see picture below). Iran has also used the Houthis and their assisting IRGC and Hezballah forces in Yemen to launch rockets into Saudi Arabia including into Riyadh, the Saudi capital city. Iran is set on establishing their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East as pictured in the lower picture below. While Israel addresses threats on her borders not needing to seek more problems outside of Israel, Iran can be found across the Middle East operating either using IRGC units or terrorist entities they control from Iran across Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon while in a southern region we find Iranian influence in Yemen. This view of the region should dispel any illusions concerning which nation is spreading threats and conflicts across the Middle East with views on expanding further and that the nation in question is not Israel but instead is Iran. Iran is currently threatening to expand their efforts into Saudi Arabia and Israel while also ignoring the American warnings about Iranian aggressions, particularly those along the waterways where commerce and oil flow to the world and the Iranian threats to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz as well as threatening the United States Naval vessels in the region. The only question is exactly how far will Iran need to push the United States before President Trump will finally decide that they have crossed a red-line and are deserving of American wrath. Just as Hamas will probably cross beyond the limit of Israeli patience, Iran will push beyond American patience forcing a confrontation or worse. Something ugly is approaching this summer, and it will be decided upon by the Mullahs of Iran.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 13, 2019

Threats of Another Great War

 

History, one would think, has taught humankind numerous lessons amongst which is never underestimate nor ignore the threats from tyrants, particularly tyrants who have been building arsenals and beefed-up militaries. One such modern-day tyrant is the Iranian Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. He has made a few threats this past decade which should have received far more attention than they have. He has threatened Israel with annihilation, stated that he can and probably will destroy the United States, will attack Israel should the United States do anything to harm Iran, claimed that he was the chosen of Allah to cure the world of the cancer that is Israel and any number of other equally absurd claims of destruction should he be displeased by this, that or the other. We realize that the above are not direct quotes and really are not going to be bothered to find his direct words and are going to settle for the amalgam of quotes by him and any number of underlings who do not speak unless approved by the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah. We guess we should be glad that, to the best of our recollection, not claimed to be the Defender of the Faithful. Much of the bluster coming from Iran would make for a perfect spoofing movie of a tinpot dictator of some insignificant place which never has, does or ever will perform great deeds yet he speaks demanding to be treated as if he actually could rule the world. The problem is Iran is not a small nation, has a pair of sizable militaries, one the Iranian Army and the other the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which has an offshoot called the Niruyeh Moghavemat Basij, often simply called the Basij Militia. This last group, the Basij, are mostly a home-front fighting unit used to keep order, threaten any groups or persons considered potential threats to the Supreme Leader or the government and have been deployed to put down demonstrations and anything else which may require “special attentions” for which this group is most suited. The IRGC also has a specific tasking which the Iranian Army does not have and is otherwise simply a second military with all the branches of the regular Army, Air Force and Navy. This task is to spread Shia Islam to the world as well as spread terrorism to anywhere on earth which are deemed to require special attention while providing special training and armaments to the terrorist groups who are aligned and controlled by Iran. Amongst these terrorist groups are Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis will attack Saudi Arabia mostly through launching missiles and rockets at Riyadh, the Saudi Capital City. Hezballah is almost a third military army under Iranian command who currently are assisting the forces of Bashir al-Assad along with IRGC forces, assisting the Houthis in Yemen, a training center located at the Tri-border region at the junction of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil plus support for cells awaiting their special orders to attack and destroy vital and vulnerable locations near which they have been placed, presumably with many such cells placed within the United States. This is just a taste of the presumed Iranian threats and assesses their ability to carry such out.

 

We hear much talk about bringing to an end the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons. This hoax is centered around the mistaken idea that Iran has not yet reached the technical level required for producing nuclear weapons. Where this may prove to be a valid assessment of the Iranian drive to produce thermonuclear weapons (commonly referred to as the hydrogen bomb or fusion bomb) as these weapons require highly accurate machining with special materials as well as the production of deuterium and tritium, two isotopes of hydrogen, it is not likely true about fission bomb or simply nuclear bomb or warhead. The main assumption is that Iran has been unable, according to the oft wrong experts, to miniaturize their bombs such that they can be fit atop their ballistic missiles. Even were we to take the pessimistic assumptions that Iran has not produced a ballistic missile deliverable nuclear weapon and that Iran has only been working on nuclear weapons since the mid 1990’s, this would mean that Iran has been working at making a nuclear weapon without success despite the theory, schematics and detailed instructions on how both bombs were designed and produced and detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki are readily available on the Internet and in some physics books and other sources. Additionally, with little or no source other than the brains behind the Manhattan Project, the United States built their nuclear bombs in under four years and we are to believe that with twenty-plus years and uranium mines within their borders the Iranians have been unable to produce nuclear weapons. This is much behind our stating that we are quite certain that Iran has nuclear weapons, has miniaturized these weapons for mounting atop their ballistic missiles and very likely have already figured out the design for a miniaturized thermonuclear warhead. This is what we expect is behind the Iranian claim that they could destroy an entire carrier group with a single missile. Then again, they may be referring to their EMP device with which they could blind, at least temporarily, an entire carrier group but they would then require fast boats and anti-ship missiles with which to strike at the blinded and disarmed ships. There are some trusted old-style weapons on these ships which would not be affected by an EMP device such as the 50cal. Machine gun. That is not a replacement for the more advanced electronic systems, but it is still a very effective weapon in skilled hands. This article by Mark Langfan describes one scenario of the potential war with Iran along with evidence that this could happen sooner rather than later.

 

Why all of this presumably so suddenly and with little warning? Well, because it is not suddenly and there have been numerous warnings which have been all but ignored by the Western media. Their claim is that by playing these threats down, they are helping to prevent them from occurring because nothing can happen if the media does not cover the story. This was their attitude when Israel was recently (last week) attacked from Gaza with over seven-hundred rockets which cost Israel four souls with almost one-hundred-fifty people injured or treated for shock. Numerous of these rockets struck the ground with too many landing within the confines of inhabited areas. The vast majority of the rockets tracked to have trajectories bringing them within populated areas were intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome system with each interception costing a minimum of fifty-thousand dollars, the cost of each individual anti-missile-missile. This latest barrage of rockets upon southern Israel was initiated by Islamic Jihad which means Iran as they do not make breakfast until Tehran tells them what to prepare. This brings us to the threat that should the United States engage targets within Iran or of any of the Iranian military vessels, then Iran will wipe out Israel. Fortunately for the United States, they have not threatened to destroy the United States should Israel attack any of their various military and terrorist units. Many experts have claimed that Iran is not capable of destroying Israel unless they were to resort to using nuclear weapons, which the experts love to point out that Iran has been incapable of producing a nuclear weapon. The horrific truth is that Iran has been regularly attacking Israel either from the north with Hezballah or from the south with both Islamic Jihad and Hamas, the sources of the seven-hundred rockets recently. The Iranian threat to wipe Israel off the map would most likely be referring to having Islamic Jihad and Hamas initiate hostilities refusing all efforts to restore peace forcing an Israel ground attack and then unleashing Hezballah complete with an invasion attempt backed by rocket artillery. These attacks could be further assisted by the IRGC and al-Quds forces staged in Syria. Only when Israel survives and possibly begins to rout these attackers would Iran resort to directly attacking Israel. The fear is that in such a scenario that Iran would launch their rockets and missiles with some having nuclear and chemical warheads, especially chemical warheads on anything launched from within Syria. What has prevented Iran from directly attacking Israel from their own soil is that while these missiles are taking flight, Israel would simply have to believe that many would have nuclear and chemical warheads and reply with nuclear tipped ballistic missiles of her own. Such is what would constitute an initial reaction to any engagement between Iran and the United States, simply because no matter which side engaged the other first or committed an incident which produce a confrontation, Iran would consider such as the United States attacking Iran without cause. The Iranian leadership believes that if they display any military threat that the United States would turn tail and run as they do not have the stomach for such a fight. This may be a valid point as the Iranian hardcore elements would never stop fighting unless liquidated and the citizens of the United States are not prepared to engage in this kind of total war for an extended period of time. The Iranian civilian and military leadership have trained in Vietnam where they have been told everything about how any determined enemy can defeat the United States simply by continuing the fight until the American people demand an end to the costly war. That is the secret behind much of the Iranian bluster and additionally they have all the proof they need as they have seen the United States leave Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria abandoning the Kurds.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

Some might ask why would Iran attack Israel should the United States attack or engage Iranian forces. Well, they believe that the United States is controlled by some cabal of Jews who plan the foreign policies of the United States in order to have it serve Israel. The Iranian leadership actually believes the Jews control most Western countries and thus should any Western nation engage Iran, they are obviously doing so and sacrificing themselves and their people all in the service of Israel. Somebody should have informed them that “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” was a piece of fiction written by the Tsars of Russia to promote anti-Semitism to use as a means of explaining away their economic woes blaming, you guessed it, the Jews. Further, the Iranians believe that the Jews have some mystical abilities whereby they, quoting Ms. Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, hypnotized the world into doing their bidding. If the Jews really had this ability, don’t you think that they would have taken control of their enemies first with Iran and Ms. Omar near the top of the list, or are they the select few who have immunity to the Jewish mind control. What is frightening are the similarities between the claims of Ms. Omar and Ayatollah Khamenei.

 

As for what is most likely to result from President Trump calling Ayatollah Khamenei’s bluff that should the United States apply and enforce their final stage of isolating Iran economically by bringing an end to their exportation of oil, they would have crossed a red-line. Well, in theory that red line was crossed as of May 1, 2019, and thus far Iran has not attacked the United States or any allies they have, especially if they are backing President Trump. Another way the Iranians could attack the United States does not involve weapons but instead they would just need to interject items which might produce sufficient pressures that Trump does not seek reelection in 2020 or steps down before the coming elections. The Iranian feel buoyed by the Democrat claims that President Trump is a mere piece of evidence away from Impeachment. This has the Iranians believing that President Trump is vulnerable to the threats of Impeachment and all they need to do in order to take Trump down is provide the flimsiest piece of evidence. It can be expected for Iran to test President Trump. The Iranians honestly believe that they are the most advanced and more precious before Allah and no nation could possibly stand against them simply due to their resolve. They see themselves as the modern Persia and seek to reestablish the Persian Empire except this one will not fall to Greece or anyone else, well, not immediately. The Iranian ruling elite are convinced that they have the strongest military in the world and they are destined to be the ones who conquer the world and bring all the people to Islam, Shia Islam. They have a strong resolve that they will be given the world because the Quran stated that Islam will rule the world and everyone will genuflect towards Mecca and Allah.

 

Should Iran and the United States be engulfed in a War, as we have seen, it will engage Israel. Once Israel has been assaulted and they will then use the media to instigate anti-Semitic acts across Europe and elsewhere. Their hope is to have the people of the world turn against Israel blaming the war on the Jews and their manipulation of the various leaders into doing their bidding. Adding to this the sharp increases in the United States and the rest of the developed world of anti-Semitism, despite that these blood libels have been debunked, they still permeate much of the world being seen as valid reasons for destroying Israel. The Iranian leadership see the destruction of Israel as a potential tipping point bringing people to witness and even bring them into Shia Islam eventually Shia Islam the driving force of the Muslim world. Delusion can be a dangerous problem and when it becomes part and parcel of the ruling elite in a nation, it can only lead to ruin often taking many innocents with it. It is this ignorance which could lead to the next great war involving mankind and could be the final war where the world is bombed back to the Stone Age. This is the threat the world is ignoring insisting instead that Israel is a threat to world peace. There can be no rational reason for having such views, but apparently, they do not disqualify people and even parties from becoming leadership. That may well become the undoing of humankind, all as we came close to great wonders and leaps forward in our knowledge of the universe and other astronomical theories and our ability to reach for the stars. Perhaps that is the bane and ending note for all civilizations and explains why SETI never actually hears a verifiable signal. Maybe this will be how the human race destroys itself on the eve of greatness. Whatever, the coming conflagration is avoidable, but only if the world chooses to act as grown-ups rather than be petty little people all wound up in their own little world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 1, 2019

Iran Collecting All the Best of Friends

 

One of the questions Israelis with friends in Europe and North America hear much of the time asks if we worry about our enemies. By enemies, they most often mean those nations on our borders and, of late, they add in Iran. Our answer usually goes something near to we worry more about those professing to be our friends than our declared enemies. We tell them that we know exactly what to expect from each of our enemies but it is our friends who we cannot predict how they will act according to stimuli, react to the changing world, handle pressures we see coming at them and proactively act to avoid some of the worst problems they are soon to face. Our friends find our concern for their well-being and safety often misplaced and think we should be far more concerned about the threats being made against us and all the moves by the United Nations to single us out, Ireland passing legislation criminalizing trade with businesses run by Jews in the Shomron, the one-hundred-thirty-thee nations which make up the “Group of 77” electing Palestine under Mahmoud Abbas as their leader to represent them (146 countries voted for this Resolution whilst only three – Israel, the U.S. and Australia – voted against, 15 countries abstained and the remaining 29 states did not vote) or the recent American elections where anti-Israel positions took center stage. This is all not to mention the European Union, Britain about to elect Corbyn as Prime Minister, France playing with their own BDS movement, Italy doing the BDS thing as well with the rest of “free” Europe and Canada having a growing BDS movement north of the border. Why should we worry about the Arab world who only threatens to kill us when our friends are dancing with the devil, so to speak, and flirting with slowly cutting their relations with Israel. When I warned of this many decades ago while still in the United States, people claimed I must be losing my mind or I required psychiatric help with the number one answer always being, “America would never turn against Israel. That is the one constant that Israel can rely upon.” What scares me even worse is that most Israelis believe that to be true as well. Our advice to both of these camps, be afraid, be very afraid because what is coming will be a blizzard affecting United States-Israel relations and they are going to become very cold indeed, just wait a decade or two. Most of our friends are sliding in a direction which will lead to their separating from Israel and eventually turning to the other side unless some awakening occurs and they realize the dangers facing their societies and governances.

 

Meanwhile, allow us to start with Iran and the problems coming from that front. We just recently wrote an article titled, “Iran Threatens Israel with Missiles from Lebanon and Gaza” where we spoke about General Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran who was also making threats of the overwhelming military troubles which would befall Israel were she to “act stupidly.” What is always amusing is the constant use of the phrase, “Israel act stupidly,” which is almost always preceded and followed by all forms of threats. Well, now we have another Iranian military genius threatening Israel. He is the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and he recently warned Israel that, well, in our words, Armageddon is perched on our doorstep and ready to pounce in order to, “wipe out wrongdoers,” and further, “Today, the Zionists know that in any war they start, Lebanon would not be the only battlefront. They know that a new war would lead to their annihilation.” And then there is the list of nations which he claims are on the bandwagon and fully behind the Mad Mullahs of Tehran. Perhaps before continuing, we should allow you to hear him and if you do not speak Farsi, MEMRI has translated the video.

 

 

Wasn’t that just one of the most breathtaking speeches you have ever heard from an Iranian military commander. So, he informed Israel specifically and the world indirectly that Lebanese, Iraqis, Afghanis, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Yemenis are in Syria, and that is the new, modern, combat tested, trained and ready to go “united Islamic army.” Isn’t that simply the most terrifying thing you have ever heard in your lifetime, well, us neither. We thought about half or so of these nations are ones where Iran has all but taken over complete control. Let us see what we can see as Lebanon is basically run by Hezballah, Iran is rapidly and already, for all intents and purposes, is western Iran with a fair number of IRGC and regular Iranian Army units assisting with their war on the Kurds and the Sunni Muslims. Moving right along to Yemen, there are numbers of IRGC and Hezballah fighting troops and trainers working with the Houthis to rule that country. Syria is the crux of the fighting where Iran is calling in every and anybody to assist them in propping up Bashar al-Assad as the ruler of Syria and Iranian puppet even if they are required to kill the vast majority of Syrians and destroy most of the nation’s infrastructure to do so. The main concern of Iran has been their taking control of Lebanon (which they have controlled through Hezballah for decades now), Iraq, Syria and Yemen in order to establish their Shiite Iranian Crescent across the Middle East (see map below and the star in the Iranian Crescent covers Mecca and Medina which they have often claimed they will soon control). That leaves Afghanistan and Pakistan who Iran claims are there defending Bashir al-Assad and ready to pounce on Israel if the Zionists act stupidly and start a war. These Iranian military top brass sure are convinced that Israel is about to jump up and start a war with one of their friends. Of all the nations above which Iran appears to be unified with, the only ones in the correct proximity for Israel to attack are Syria (what’s left of it) and Lebanon. So, perhaps that should be explored.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

The first item one need know is that the forces fighting in Syria with Iran and Hezballah are irregular units from Afghanistan and Pakistan, not troops provided by these two nations. These are forces which worked with other bands which most nations recognize as the terrorist parties assisting Iran with their efforts against other groups such as the Kurds and, at some future point, potentially the Russians and Turkey. Currently Turkey is sweeping norther Syria in what they informed President Trump was their final sweep to eradicate the last vestiges of the Islamic State. The unfortunate result of the Turkish military actions is that they appear to have an identification problem, as they are more often sweeping through Kurdish towns and cities and murdering civilians as well as fighting the Kurdish Militias, some of the same militias which assisted with ridding Syria of the Islamic State and with whom the United States was allied. Turkish President Erdogan has stated his desires to include Aleppo and Mosul into Turkey as the beginning of the reestablishing of the Ottoman Empire and he will be the first Sultan of the Second Ottoman Empire. Dreams of grandeur and it is all nothing but smoke. Meanwhile, many people have the mistaken thought that Iran and Russia are allied in their efforts to assist Assad. This is untrue, as they both desire the Syrian Mediterranean ports. They both see themselves as the main ally who controls Syria. The Russians would settle for just the ports along the western coastline and Damascus for the international airport to use for supply and troop movements. The Iranians desire these as well as the southeastern border with Iran to provide them a road link through which to send their missile carriers and other heavy weapons. For Iran, Syria is the direct link for providing Hezballah with better weaponry, particularly guidance systems for their larger rocket making them into guided missiles, and with placing their IRGC troops with their required weaponry perching them on the northeastern border of Israel as well as the northern border of Israel with Lebanon. Iran also desires to have a longer border with Saudi Arabia which is behind their Iraqi and Yemenis efforts giving them the ability to threaten the Saudi Arabian oil fields which lie largely in northeastern Saudi Arabia as well as a front along the Red Sea in order to threaten Mecca and Medina, another prize the Iranians covet. This places another country at risk of the Iranian hegemonic plans, and that is Jordan. Were they to take control over Jordan, this would give them a border with Israel stretching the entirety of the eastern Israeli border, the entirety of the northern border of Saudi Arabia allowing them to strike from the north and south along the Red Sea in order to take Mecca and Medina, the two holy cities of Islam.

 

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

 

The Iranian reason for wanting to control Mecca and Medina is that this would remove the Saudi Royal Family claim to be the protectors of the Two Holy Mosques, one in Mecca and the other in Medina and the claim which also keeps the family Saud in power. The oil fields are in the largely Shiite region of Saudi Arabia, thus prime pickings for Iran using IRGC infiltrators to start the revolution, allowing Iranian forces to succeed in taking these regions upon which the royal family would be getting on their aircraft and heading for safer climes. Again, this would make Jordan a crucial prize which would make the Iranian efforts more likely to succeed. Another prize which Jordan provides is their border with Israel and its proximity to the Palestinian Authority. Iran has attempted to gain influence over the Palestinian Authority with no success for quite some time. Other means which the Iranians have for taking control of the Palestinian Authority would be Hamas, which they are currently supporting with arms and technology, largely rocket motors and weapons technology allowing Hamas along with Islamic Jihad to become a more dangerous threat to Israel. The play which Iran has been nurturing has been claims that they wish to be the best friend the Arab Palestinians could ever have. Part of this effort has also been to urge the Arab Palestinians within, who make up at least seventy percent of the population, to rise up and remove King Abdullah II allowing Iran to assist for which they would become another Iranian puppet. Were the Iranians able to cause a revolt in Jordan, expect for IRGC infiltrators to assist arming them and giving them intelligence and other assistance providing Iran with the inroad they would require to control Jordan. From that vantage, Iran would use IRGC and Hamas terrorists to infiltrate the Palestinian Authority regions and potentially back one of the people who believe they should be the next leader after Mahmoud Abbas has moved along. This could potentially place Iranian sponsored terrorists with opportunities to launch rockets into Tel Aviv and cause Israel some inconveniences. Iran has stated their desire to be the next Caliphate and to become such a hegemonic power across the Middle East and then either Europe or Northern Africa Making Shia Islam appear to be the strong horse and Sunni Islam to be fading. Through such events as they have designed to make their claim believable, which includes destroying Saudi Arabia and possibly taking control of the Muslim Brotherhood, changing it from Sunni to Shia, and using them to take control of Egypt as well, they honestly expect for Shia Islam to overtake Sunni Islam and have the majority of current Sunni Muslims convert along the way. With Shia Islam having between ten and thirteen percent of the number of Muslims and Sunni making up between eighty-five and ninety percent of Muslims, Iran has a very ambitious concept of their future.

 

For the immediate and foreseeable future, Iran still is attempting to consolidate their control in Iraq, have established a formidable military presence in Lebanon, are definitely a force in Yemen and Syria, two nations largely destroyed from civil strife and fighting, and beyond that they are currently stymied. Iran knows that should they attack Israel they would be playing with fire. Israel has proven their ability to strike at Iran whenever it pleases Israel, and Iran is apparently powerless to prevent such operations. The two main examples were the Stuxnet virus, a supposed joint venture with the United States aiding Israel, and the removal of half a ton of records of the clandestine nuclear programs conducted and still ongoing by Iran which assisted President Trump pulling out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. Iranians also are aware that Israel has sufficient missiles and other weapons with which to lay waste to most of Iran should Israel so choose. This would probably never occur, as Israel has no argument with the majority of Iranian citizens, it is just the government which is a problem. Further, the Iranian plans for Saudi Arabia would run afoul of the United States, which for as long as President Trump is President, there would be no telling as to what his reaction would be to an Iranian assault on Saudi Arabia. The same situation exists with Jordan which would also potentially have Israel involved. This leaves only one problem concerning Iran, and it is an enormous one.

 

The biggest problem with Iran is their nuclear weapons. We do not say their nuclear weapons program, we firmly believe they already have nuclear weapons. Iran presumably was working on nuclear weapons for over twenty years and the world deliriously believes that they were muddling through in the dark and never figured out how to make nuclear weapons. They may not have weapons as sophisticated as Russia or the United States, but regular nuclear weapons they very likely have, and have a fair number. They have been working on the missiles necessary to carry them and have a number which easily reach Israel and beyond. Iran has very likely had sufficient nuclear missile warheads to satisfy their slowing their pace until they developed the technology for manufacturing ballistic missile ready thermonuclear warheads of the miniaturized versions developed by Russia, China and the United States (many suspect Israel). The less powerful weapons Iran probably, if not definitely, possesses would be sufficient to destroy any target which they could detonate one bomb close enough to the intended target. A city such as Tel Aviv would probably require three or four such weapons of the variety and strength of what was dropped on Japan during World War II. When considering the Iranian tactics of swarming their enemies with smaller and fast attack craft, one might expect they have a similar set of tactics for the use of their nuclear weapons. They probably figure that over three-quarters of their launched missiles would operate sufficiently as to reach the target area. Then about half would be intercepted. Another ten percent would fail to detonate and some additional warheads would have guidance problems and miss the target to be sufficient distance so as to be ineffective. Using such figures and a pessimistic calculator, this would require the launch of around twenty missiles to be assured of the destruction of a Tel Aviv size city. At the very least, Iran very likely has sufficient nuclear missiles to destroy three or four central districts to any major population center which their missiles can reach. That alone is a frightening thought, but we in Israel disregard such threats.

 

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

 

There is a reason that Israelis do not dwell or much concern themselves with threats such as Iran. We have threats which are even more real and they occur almost daily with some terror attack from the Arabs in the Shomron from the Palestinian Arab population and less so but even from Israeli Arabs. Why would we worry about things which are very unlikely to happen immediately when we hardly worry about the terror threats all around us. Further, the government and IDF address the Iranian attempts to build a credible threat in force within Syria, especially nearest to the Israeli border. Hezballah has somewhere near or over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets poised to fire into Israel, so why worry about Iran which is so much further away. With Iran, counting the terrorist forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan which are assisting them in Syria as claims of allies with the countries is laughable. That is how desperate Iran is to impress the world to take them seriously. Small hint to world, take them and Islam seriously as though Iran may not reach the point where they could conquer the world, Islam could reach a point where it will be near impossible to save Europe in another quarter century and the United States soon after that. The United States could become an adversary or at least no longer providing any military aid and ending the sale of military equipment to Israel far sooner than Israel is currently prepared. Israel needs to start to develop whatever new weapons systems they require for the future, specifically aircraft and naval vessels as it is very probable that by 2050 Israel will need to be completely self-reliant militarily even down to the missiles fired by aircraft and ships to artillery munitions and grenades and bullets. Israel should also begin to manufacture her own anti-tank weapons and end her reliance on European nations, the United States, Canada and even Australia. Israel may soon find that she is very alone, and that would be great as long as we are also left alone to progress and live in peace. There is an old adage that if the Arabs all put down their weapons, bombs, warheads and ended the terror threats to Israel, there would be peace but if Israel were to act similarly and put down her weapons and defenses, there would be no Israel. We know what the threats and challenges are and Israel will do all she can to mitigate the threats and live in peace developing wonderful new things for the world to share as what good are the greatest gifts if they are never given away?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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