Beyond the Cusp

June 17, 2018

Netanyahu Success in Revealing Establishment Europe

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu returned from his European trip with a few nice souvenirs from the gift shop, a hefty trip ticket, receipts, a few renewed memories and little else. His intended trip to Gay Paris, Merry olde London town and unified Berlin was to attempt to pry these leaders into joining United States President Trump by pulling their support from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This was going to be a tough sell as these nations are enriching their otherwise sagging economic outlook with what they believe will be substantial economic trade with Iran. Tiny little Israel, despite the fact of her economy being far greater than her size, does not have the purchasing power presently coming from Iran. The problem is that some of these trade items come under dual use equipment as they are utilized in the nuclear industry as well as in medical and other industries. Special blends of steel and aluminum, magnets and capacitors, strobes and filaments, microprocessors and integrated electronics can be used in various industries such as medical lasers, X-ray machines, MRIs and all forms of special equipment used across numerous industries as well as used in the nuclear industry for everything from reactors for power to nuclear warheads for power projection. This is what makes many forms of trade with Iran so potentially precarious.

 

The promise of good relations and a new market was the sole concern for the three M’s, Merkel, Macron and May. The rulers of France, Germany and Britain gave Netanyahu a warm and fuzzy cold shoulder. They refused to advise any changes to the JCPOA and definitely refused to withdraw from the agreement. Their claim was that their nations had given their word in good faith and to break their word was unthinkable. Really? Telling Israel that France, Germany and Britain were seriously concerned about their word being their bond was brazen audacity. We would try to count the times and ways that these three nations have reneged on promises to Israel and to the Jewish People but doubt such is really necessary. But Prime Minister Netanyahu should have known this before leaving which leaves one wondering why he even bothered to try other than to placate the left and be able to at least claim he gave it an effort. The trip may have been to inoculate himself from just another pointless politically motivated attack for pushing Europe away when, according to the critics, the European acceptance is necessary if Israel expects to have a future. Well, that is a nice concept providing you are backwards looking. The truth is that the future for Israel economically, politically, and societally is not looking to Europe and the past but to the future and upcoming nations such as India, China and the working democratic, free-enterprise nations in Africa and South America. But when there are those seeking to attack you, they will blame Netanyahu for the rejection by France, Germany and Britain but had he not approached them he would have been criticized for not going. It is the old you can fail by trying or fail by not trying, either way your failure will be attacked.

 

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

 

The reality is that politically France, Germany and Britain wish Israel, and by Israel the Jewish People, would simply be overrun and removed from their consciences. They blame the Jews for surviving the persecution heaped upon them by Christians and the Greeks and Romans before Nazi Germany almost succeeded in Europe. These leaders will make nice statements and even provide security after each attack, but they believe that their future is to adapt and make their Islamic immigrants become good Europeans. The more likely result will be the Europeans with become nice Dhimmis in an Islamic centric society likely within the first half of this century or by the end at the longest. Imagine Britain under Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, France under Union for a Popular Movement leader Jean-François Copé or Germany under Alliance 90/The Greens Party leader Annalena Baerbock, all heavily pro-immigrant parties and candidates who see the future of Europe as reaching a working alliance with a large percentage of Muslim immigrants welcomed into the nation to replace the numbers of youth not being birthed by native Europeans. Germany (below 1.5 children per woman), France (hovering around 2.0 children per woman) and Britain (approximately 1.9 children per woman) all have reproductive rates below the 2.2 children per woman required to simply have replacement rate. This has been the plaguing problem, with the only reason that these rates are increasing is due to the high birth rates by incoming immigrants, thus since the early 1970’s Europe has been looking at a disappearing native population. This changing demographic has brought on a backlash of anti-immigrant political demographic which has been latched onto by the far right parties. The futures of the nations of Western Europe are being wagered on building their new nation largely upon immigrant populations. This will take them politically further and further from Israel politically and in policy. Israel need accept this reality and come to the realization that though Europe provides markets in the here and now, the future will not be in Europe, at least not in Western Europe. Israel would be better served to work with the former Warsaw Pact nations, assisting them in modernization and build relations with that sphere.

 

Israel has much to offer any nation in developments and new discoveries. These will produce trade relations with every nation willing to trade. As for political alliances, Israel should not be the beggar but rather offer free trade with those nations which whom we can have strong political relations and a shared political outlook. Israel should build relations with nations who are willing to be cooperative and not constantly joining those in the United Nations General Assembly and other institutions of the United Nations condemning Israel in a near constant basis. Israel should announce that her trade barriers would be lowered for those who support Israel and would be raised on those who choose not to defend Israel from undue slanders and denunciations within world bodies. Israel need stop going from nation to nation with their hands out begging for favors. Israel need simply take care of Israel and deal with favor with those who decide they wish to join Israel into the future. Those who desire or act to the detriment of Israel, well, who needs those who show Israel no favor. Every nation has the right to deal with those who befriend them and to avoid interactions with those who do not. Israel, as most nations will do, should trade with those willing to trade unless a nation is amongst those who denounce Israel at every turn. Israel need go forward by building alliances with nations willing to stand with Israel and move slowly but surely away from any which repeatedly join in denouncing Israel. Israel should not expect any nation to bend or act against their economic future to please Israel but on the other hand, Israel need not assist those nations who choose to work with those who threaten Israel as nations we cannot count amongst our allies. Israel should work with allies made and leave the others as neutral unless they prove otherwise, and then they should be shunned.

 

Israel cannot expect anybody to respect Israel more than Israel does herself. This is another lesson which the political class need learn and learn fast. If Israel acts as if she is unsure of what is rightfully hers, then how can Israel expect others to be more assured of such than is she? That is illogical at the start. The initial step in this strengthening of Israel and her stand within the community of nations is to act with assured firmness. Step one is to annex all of Area C from the Oslo Accords in which Area C was left under total Israeli control. The existing Palestinian Arabs who are residing within Area C are doing so illegally under the Oslo Accords. They should be required to sign a non-belligerence agreement signifying that they hold no support for terrorism and no ill will towards Israel and accept residing under Israeli Law. In exchange, they will be permitted to remain as legal alien residents. Those who refuse should be offered reasonable remuneration for their property and allowed to move into Area A or Area B. Once the screaming has dimmed to a dull roar, Israel should invite Mahmoud Abbas to sit down a make peace or lose Area B. We expect that he would balk and instead run immediately to the European Union and United Nations and get as many denunciations of Israel for seeking such a meeting under dire threat. Following such a response by political attack and attempted political ostracization, Israel should simply annex Area B and offer the Palestinian Arabs residing there the same option as those from Area C. Finally, the same procedure should be exercised with Area A, the world should expect the same result, and in the end, we could send Mahmoud Abbas to live in Paris with as many of the leadership as possible with the rest being allowed to leave for whichever Muslim nations will have them. Once Israel has established her eastern border as the firmly and originally promised Jordan River, she can move forward acting as if the world has finally come to grips with its original promises. Yes, there will be a period of adjustment and France, Germany and Britain will be generally put out, but sometimes nations need to do what they need to do. Israel does not exist to make the French, German or British people and governments happy, she exists to be the Jewish State and take whatever steps are necessary for her own future and survival. The façade of a peace process has gone on long enough and it is time to settle things and bring it all to an end. The proper end would be and should be that Israel is entitled to every inch of the lands promised her by the Mandate, by the League of Nations, by the Allied Powers of World War I (it is a very old promise) and by the United Nations who promised as much in Article 80 of their Charter. That is the reality and there really should be little if any argument about this. The Europeans and their World War I allies are aware of the promises, as is the Arab League and every Arab and Muslim nation. It is inscribed indelibly in the San Remo Conference, Treaty of Sèvres, the Mandate Agreements and numerous other places, thus ignorance really has to be willingly adopted. The time has long passed for the grievance mongers to be rejected and sent upon their way into the dustbin of history and Israel to take her place as a nation without question. Those who wish to recognize her may and those with problems may have their problems, these problematic countries should not act as an excuse to deny Israel her rightful boundaries. There were promises, an Arab state was already carved from 78% of the British Mandate, and there is no agreement that a second Arab state followed by a third and a fourth until all the Jews reside in a single building in Tel Aviv is required. The time has come to end the ruse and reveal it for what it is, the dream of politicians around the world to step-by-step disassemble the Jewish State and bring the life of the Jewish People to an end where they become a scattered few who live at the kindness of others. Never Again! That phrase should become the negotiating slogan as Israel takes that which is hers and makes it final. Never Again means that we will take the interlopers injecting their politics to Israeli detriment no longer. That time has arrived and it will not take much longer before Israeli politics catch up and this becomes a reality. Prepare for this and prepare your politics for this as the end of the ruse is coming.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 4, 2013

What is Behind the Ukrainian Violent Protests?

The news reports all agree that the entire protests are solely about the Ukrainian leadership’s decision not to sign an agreement which would have aligned the nation to ties favoring the European Union and further from Russia. What makes this violence a possible first incidence of more troubles to come spreading across the former Soviet Republics is the background behind the results. Russian President Putin is playing hardball in forcing these former satellite nations to make a cold and hard choice of either trade with Russia, which makes out the majority of their current trade, or choose to place their nations economic health in a future with the European Union, a future that in the current state of the European Union’s financial problems is less than a promising guarantee. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich initially turned down the offer from the European Union under the duress of threats made by Russian President Putin which made the decision an all or nothing choice but the question still persists of whether this is the whole story or is there more.

 

Reasons for doubts that the increasing unrest is solely over trade policies is worth investigating as it is doubtful that hundreds of thousands of demonstrators would virtually control the entire central city area of the Ukrainian Capital City of Kiev over simply a trade deal. This could be more about the people’s desires to break once and for all from their Soviet past and they see this decision by President Viktor Yanukovich as a sign that their fears that he was simply a puppet of the Russians was valid. Suspicions and anger surrounded his imprisoning of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko soon after taking office as she had many supporters and was a political rival of President Yanukovich. There were also suspicions that President Yanukovich might have ties with Russia that would affect his decisions and thus making this decision to cause even greater doubts and anger than many might have expected. The main problem will be if the decision to side with retaining close ties with Russia will cause the same difficulties for other former Soviet nations resulting in a spreading wave of discontent similar to the uprisings which spread across many Arab nations in the recent past and is still causing massive unrest in the majority, if not all, of those nations. If this proves to be the case it makes the world just that much more unstable and dangerous.  Any spreading of the kind of unrest ongoing now in the Ukraine will simply add to the economic woes in the world and that is something nobody needs as the entire world is only slowly working its way out of difficulties.

 

What cannot be argued is that the unrest in the Ukraine is a cause for concern and the decision by Russian President Putin to force former Soviet nations to choose their future as an all of nothing venture will only make for more disruptions and problems going forward. Where the reasons for President Putin making any move to increase trade and ties with the European Union are obviously his response to try to prevent the loss of any trade to the Europeans as Russia needs to retain these nations favored trade relations for their economy. President Putin may be overreacting or he may simply be grasping to hold on to the former Soviet nations and keep them directly tied to Russia in as many ways as possible and trade is simply one more tie he is making his stand upon. Putin does not ever take conciliatory positions nor does he play anything other than a hard game which often appears to be forcing an all or nothing choice. Until one of the former Soviet countries decides to test Putin’s ultimatums and signs an agreement with the European Union we will not know for sure if his threats to end trade relations is a bluff or an actual consequence these nations will need to include in their decision processes going forward. Should one rely on logic, that when push comes to shove, that President Putin would not give up on whatever trade benefits and good trade relations would still exist after one of the former satellites decide to ally closer to the European Union or that President Putin would cut off trade relations even at Russia’s own detriment just to punish those who challenged him. This cannot be an easy choice for the leadership of these nations and even more so for President Yanukovich as he was suspected of having too close of ties with Russia which was part of the campaign used against him.

 

Part of the problem also rests with the European Union who are also making the deal more difficult than is necessary. They are driving a bargain that favors the current European Union members over the new applicant nations which also makes the decision more complicated. Will the future with the European Union pay off sufficiently in the future to compensate for the lost trade with Russia. There are also numerous other concerns that breaking away from Russia could possibly entail which simply serves to muddy the waters further and there may exist some concerns which we in the West either are insensitive to simply completely unaware of as relations with the former Soviet Union was likely far different than the relations in the West. All in all, the situation in the Ukraine should be watched carefully and what we learn from their difficulties should temper decisions going forward. Unfortunate that this is occurring during a period when the United States has basically gone into hibernation as far as taking an up front and active role in international affairs. This leading from behind attitude has basically left American allies out on their own without the cover of her usual influence and protection. Let us hope that America returns to fulfill her role, as had been considered historically normal, in the near future as her steadying influences are sorely needed in a world quickly spinning out of control and sprouting fiery hot spots with an increasing rapidity.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 24, 2013

Netanyahu Apology to Turkey

The last action by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu topping off United States President Obama’s visit was facilitated by the President who made the phone call to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and gave an introductory preface for Netanyahu’s apology over the Mavi Marmara interception during which IDF Naval commandos came under attack by IHH terrorists causing a firefight which resulted in nine IHH members deaths, eight of which were Turkish citizens and one was an American citizen. Prime Minister Netanyahu made his apology and promised to make compensatory payments to the next of kin of those who died during the confrontation. The entire confrontation was an effort by the IHH group with the cooperation of members of the Turkish government to break the internationally recognized naval blockade by Israel on ships wishing to carry cargo in or out of the Gaza Strip in order to prevent the transfer of arms or terrorists with Hamas and the other terrorist groups operating in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli blockade is recognized and has been determined to be legal and meeting all the requirements imposed by international law and has been approved by the United Nations. The blockade requires that ships unload their Gaza Strip bound cargoes at an Israeli port where the contents are examined for contraband and all which is not on the prohibited list of goods are then transferred into the Gaza Strip via recognized land crossing along with the regular daily shipments of aid provided by Israel.

The Mavi Marmara was the sole ship from the flotilla which refused to divert to the Israeli port and instead attempted to break the blockade. The goods on the other ships was inspected and transferred into the Gaza Strip where it sat until removed as the out of date foodstuffs and medicines were of no interest to Hamas or the people residing in the Gaza Strip as they receive sufficient supplies of fresh food and medical supplies as part of the support provided via Israeli truck transfers. The Mavi Marmara contained no supplies whatsoever and was solely intended to force a confrontation for the sake of propaganda against Israel and providing news footage which would show the IDF forces as being needlessly violent and using undue force against the IHH mercenaries who were to be portrayed as innocent, nonviolent human rights activists. Their plan was foiled as footage of the confrontation revealed the violence which was unleashed upon the Israeli soldiers as they rappelled onto the Mavi Marmara’s decks. They were set upon by terrorists wielding baseball bats, iron rods, knives and swords. The Israeli commandos were armed with paintball guns filled with pepper-ball ammunition and were forced to turn to their sidearms in self-defense. The result of the attacks was nine IHH members died and several IDF soldiers were hospitalized with at least one permanently disabled. The IHH members were recorded claiming their desire to either break the blockade or die as shahids, martyrs. There were miscalculations and planning errors made by the Israeli commanders who apparently thought that the flotilla was a protest stand and not a military operation intent on confrontation and possibly killing the IDF soldiers. The Mavi Marmara did not carry aid of any sort and was being utilized purely for the confrontation with intent on causing as much violence as they potentially were able. As to which side was at greater fault is dependent upon the person asked and needless to point out is that the Turkish government and many leaders blame Israel for using disproportional force and murdering the nine IHH members and the Israelis point to the film of the confrontation which shows the overt and potentially lethal force unleashed on the IDF soldiers as they boarded the Mavi Marmara and claims their actions were purely self-defense and completely legal.

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan insisted that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu make a formal apology and pay compensation to the families of the nine dead IHH members. Prime Minister Netanyahu refused to apologize and held fast to that position until he finally capitulated to President Obama’s demands onboard Air Force One under the coxing of United States President Obama. Even with the apology and offer of payment to the families, Prime Minister Netanyahu had not entirely surrendered and Prime Minister Erdogan had also compromised by accepting a phone call apology instead of a formal apology. The apology by Prime Minister Netanyahu has caused a fair amount of controversy in Israel with the divide along the lines one might expect with a few exceptions. Former Foreign Minister Lieberman made the first and likely most boisterous condemnation claiming that Israel should not be seen to grovel over defending herself. Minister of the Knesset Chetboun also objected claiming that the apology conveyed a message to IDF soldiers that the government does not have their backs in such situations and confrontations when facing violent terrorists. Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni and Shelly Yachimovich both supported Prime Minister Netanyahu making the apology claiming that good relations with Turkey outweigh pride and was the expedient thing to do. The question is whether or not the apology will return relations between Israel and Turkey to be as they were before the Mavi Marmara incident or if the relations have deteriorated too far already and if so why and at whose initiative?

There will be many who will propose that things between Turkey and Israel are on the mend and will point mainly to trade or anything else that they can show which supports such a claim. Tourism might even revive with time but the real signs that relations are improved would be on the political and military relations. Since the Mavi Marmara confrontation, Israel and Turkey have not had any further joint military exercises with Turkey insisting Israel not be included in what had previously been joint exercises the two nations and the United States and NATO. Those who will use trade as their proof are pointing to one aspect of Turkish-Israeli relations which had not suffered any real measurable amount as that was one area which remained healthy except for the military sectors. Most of the military trade between Israel and Turkey consisted of Israeli systems traded to Turkey which were curtailed as part of the freeze which had set in. The break began when Turkey cancelled all outstanding orders for Israeli military systems. Should this sector of trade resume it may be a sign of a return to healthy and friendly relations.

Turkey is currently in a state of siege with half a million Syrian refugees and a full blown civil war on their southern border. Adding to this is the undeniable fact that Iraq has sided with Iran and has been facilitating the Iranian supplying of Syrian dictator Bashir Assad’s forces including sending IRGC troops to fight against the rebels. They are also going to need to deal with what is essentially a Kurdish state on their eastern borders. Turkey will bear watching in the immediate future to discern which direction Prime Minister Erdogan will lead his country. Should he continue in the path he has been following the world will watch as Turkey slides closer to the Muslim world and discards their secular history returning to their Islamic past. Erdogan has wisely moved slowly initially, almost unperceptively, undoing everything that was built through the changes brought be Kemal Atatürk. We had discussed the trend towards Islamist principles and their trending away from Western culture and warned of the growing threat Turkey was going to pose for NATO on January 15, 2010, in an article titled <a href=https://beyondthecusp.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/the-turkey-problem-for-nato/>The Turkey Problem for NATO</a> and earlier noted the slide towards Islam as part of an article titled <a href=https://beyondthecusp.wordpress.com/2007/06/21/is-turkey-at-the-tipping-point/>Is Turkey at the Tipping Point?</a> back on June 21, 2007. Unfortunately most of the Western nations have blithely been ignoring all the signs right before their eyes and continue to ploy Turkey with arms and favorable treatment. But then again, if the recent deals made to arm Egypt and Saudi Arabia is any sign, the Western nations are blithely ignoring every warning sign. It is due to this limitation in foresight that it will be claimed that Israel and Turkey are friends once more and anything which can be attributed to that end will be applauded and touted as a great achievement. Hopefully, at least some in the Israeli leadership will not be blinded to the truth and will advise a cautionary approach in relations and trust towards Turkey. A little caution is always advisable and even more so when dealing with new friend, or as in this case a renewed friend. Israel should not be too quick to forget the bad blood that has come between them and Turkey or to forget and forgive that the Turkish government supported and assisted the IHH terrorists with their flotilla. Israel should not believe that they had no knowledge of the planned violence by the IHH members even though this will be exactly what the world will demand of Israel.

Beyond the Cusp

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