Beyond the Cusp

January 17, 2019

Israel and her New Allies

 

Well, they are not exactly allies as much as under the same threat and seeking cover, any cover even if that means the Jews as Israel is their last hope. President Trump has been signaling ever since he started his campaign that his idea was that the United States was no longer able to fight all the world’s wars. He specifically told this to the NATO European members and told the Arab world that the days of the United States fighting Arab on Arab or Muslim on Muslim wars were over. First, President Trump pulled a number of troops from Europe and now he has started a total pullout of American forces in Syria. You can hear the caterwauling already as nobody was ready despite having been warned that such was in the cards. Even the Russians were caught off guard and now must decide exactly what is their desired future in Syria and how much are they willing to invest to accomplish such. There are three nations who, while affected, are not harmed terribly by the vacancy left by the United States pullout, Iran Turkey and Israel. The affect it will have on two of these could not be any further and distant.

 

Let’s take Iran first. Iran will see the United States removing their troops as opening the door for them to proceed and make Bashir al-Assad their personal puppet as they become the real power in Syria after they conquer the nation with little regard for the people. Iran does not require the Syrian people, they require the Syrian ports along the Mediterranean and the nation as a base for building a Mediterranean fleet without having to sail it from Iran. Syria is also a vitally needed bridge for Iran in providing Hezballah everything they require to rule over Lebanon for the Mullahs and as a weapon to wield against Israel. There is one obstacle left for Iran, and that is Russia who also desires and currently holds the Syrian Mediterranean ports which Russia desires to use to replace staging their fleet in the Black Sea where they are dependent upon the good graces of Turkey to move their ships to the Atlantic Ocean via the Mediterranean Sea and the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straights (see map below). This is the final solution for the Russians developing a staging port free of ice year round leading to the Atlantic Ocean and free from any imposing problems such as Turkey, always an unreliable Russian partner. So, the main problem facing Iran and coming between their hopes and desires and reality is just the small matter of the Russian interests. The big loser from President Trump’s move will not be Tehran but Putin and Moscow. Iran will take the American pullout as a grand invitation to solidify their hold on Syria. This will also provide them with another front with Israel along the Golan Heights, which fortunately are still held by Israel.

 

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards Across the Black Sea then Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards
Across the Black Sea then
Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles
to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

 

Next up will be Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to do to the Kurdish populations in northern Syria and Iraq what the Ottoman Empire did to the Armenians going into World War I. He might even then continue by dealing with the Kurdish minority in Turkey similarly. Presumably, President Erdoğan gave President Trump his solemn word that his only attacks in Syria would be against any remaining fragments of the Islamic State. President Erdoğan has consistently referred to the Kurds as terrorists, so in his mind, killing the Kurdish population is addressing the Islamic terrorist state in Syria. It is all in how one defines terrorist. For Erdoğan, terrorist is defined s anybody or any group which does not blindly follow him and hang on his every word. This has been the problem that the Kurds have faced as they have had the temerity to actually oppose Erdoğan’s attempts to eradicate their leadership and subdue the population. He is appalled that the Kurds actually expect the Turkish government to treat them as well as it does real Turkish people and not as some outside and irritating minority which serves no real purpose, real purpose defined as Erdoğan. President Trump would be ill advised and foolish to expect that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will keep his promises to an infidel and not simply be following the Islamic practice of taqiyya.

 

We will get to Israel in time, but first the other nations in the general vicinity need to be discussed before Israeli positions can be evaluated as many will either turn to or turn on Israel as a result of the new paradigm. Iraq and Syria will change only in minor ways. Iraq, except for the Kurdish north, is already being ruled from Tehran and has IRGC commanders in many of their Army units already. For intents and purposes, Iraq is simply western Iran and will remain as a slave state to Iranian needs and desires. Iran provides a land bridge to Syria and a staging area for northeastern Saudi Arabia and the Saudi oil fields. Syria will remain in a state of war with Bashir al-Assad simply siding with whoever provides the best deal in retaking and holding the remainder of Syria or at least consolidating and protecting Assad’s hold on the Alawite western regions of Syria. Currently, the Russians are the principle force protecting and providing air cover for Assad though Iran has provided weaponry as well as IRGC forces around Damascus. What has shown thusfar from the IRGC has been that their interests are divided between setting up camps and stations for future attacks upon Israel including firing at Israeli forces to gauge their readiness and sending drones into Israel, often armed drones. Syria will remain a disaster with the people of Syria under great stress and threat for loss of life. Simply stated, Syria will remain a swirling pit of despair, horrors and continuing turmoil.

 

This brings us to Russia and their part in this new Middle East. The Russians were advised to become very friendly and cooperate fully with the Israelis if they expect to stop Iran. Their desire is purely military and in having the Mediterranean Sea ports along the Syrian coast. This also requires their retaining control over Damascus in order to use the international airport there. Russia has no great love affair with Bashir al-Assad, as he is simply the current peg in the role of leader-on-a-string who can be controlled from Moscow as required. For the Russians, Assad can be exchanged for anybody else should such become necessary. This is why Assad is walking a tightrope not favoring the Russians or the Iranians to such a degree that either feels the need for his replacement. Russia would prefer not to be the main force behind retaking all of the former Syria though they may be making a grievous error which might allow Iran to find room to eventually force the Russians from the scene. This is behind the Russians providing most of the airstrikes required by Bashir al-Assad’s remains of his Syria army. What has happened to Russia is President Trump handed them a large piece of humble pie with a note telling them that the United States will not be standing between them and the Iranians any longer as, while President Trump is in power, Iran is now a Russian adversary, or at least their problem. The Russian-Iranian interface will be interesting and may turn into a hotly contested direct conflict between the two powers. This will not be the war over who rules the Middle East, simply who gets Syria, or at least the Syrian coastal ports and regions. Syria may end up divided between Russia and Iran providing Iran is willing to settle for using the Lebanese ports to the Mediterranean. For some reason, such seems very unlikely to us.

 

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, along with Egypt and the rest of the Sunni Islamic world, are the big losers from the United States leaving Syria and subsequently the remainder of the Middle East and western Asia (Afghanistan). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates et al have relied almost entirely on the United States to solve all the problems in their region. President Trump basically told all these countries that the United States, as stated already above, is no longer going to fight Arab on Arab or Muslim on Muslim wars. He informed them they need to ready themselves to protect their own assets and countries or bow to their Persian masters. President Trump was almost heartless when it came to these former allies and we assume that he promised to provide arms and the tools of war, just not Americans in uniform to fight the wars. They were going to have to defend themselves or find another nation willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of their own people defending the Arabs against their neighbors.

 

President Trump assessed the Middle East, decided that it was a losing proposition and that the main nation which was truly an American ally has never asked, and even refused to allow Americans to fight their wars, and that was Israel. The message to Israel is that they had received sufficient aid militarily and have always proven capable of protecting themselves in the past and President Trump felt sure they could continue to do so going forward. We have been warning Israelis that they should prepare for the day when the United States is no longer providing them with weapons of war. We have insisted that they start designing their next generation fighter jets, designing their own firearms, making their own ammunition, making their own munitions for tanks and artillery, make their own bombs both ‘smart’ and ‘drop and pray,’ making their own missiles launched by aircraft or ground based, and building everything in Israel. They were going to soon have to change from in America we trust to in Israel it is Hashem we trust but make our own weaponry. Israel is probably the least affected nation outside of their needing to start making their own fighter jets and munitions. Their deal from fifty years ago is about to have run its coarse, despite the promise presumably being eternal, which we discussed in an article titled “America Can be a Fickle Friend.” But Israel has been told that the United States can provide support politically, when it suits her mood, but will no longer be the turn to sugar daddy for Israeli military needs. President Trump is completely correct in cutting the umbilical cord as discussed in our previous article. When the United States began sending massive military aid to Israel it almost equaled the Israeli GDP while it currently is but a little more than one or two percent of GDP. Israel has come of age and can produce these things for themselves and more. We would like to imagine Israel joining the space race and perhaps eventually finding a planet like the one pictured below.

 

Planet Israel

Planet Israel

 

The new Middle East is quite a bit like the old Middle East with all the animosities, all the hatreds, all the conflicts and the entire mess we have all grow sick to death over with one large difference, the United States will not be policing the region for as long as President Trump is in office. There will be numerous intrigues and some countries will develop spines and the bristling armaments for self-defense while others will hire mercenaries or be swallowed whole by those with expansionist desires. Iran will remain problem one for most of the region with the exceptions of those nations already subservient to Tehran. These sub-states include thusfar Iran, western Syria, Qatar and Yemen with more likely to follow. Saudi Arabia is the least prepared as their military can put on a great parade but is otherwise untested. The Sunni Arab nations are secretly, and almost openly, making offers and inroads with Israel. Israel should be wary as these are not her friends and will turn upon her in an instant should they perceive the slightest weakness. Israel cannot and should never try to replace the American military actions and presence across the region. Should Israel deal with Saudi Arabia and the others who are putting forth their hands, even if it is only behind a curtain away from public view? Yes, but only as far as these dealings substantively bolster Israel or provide vital necessities in the Israel struggle against Iran. As for taking in these nations as close allies, never. These nations are to be treated as scorpions who when they finally sting you filling you with venom and you ask, why are you doing this as it will only make you more vulnerable, they will answer that they were scorpions when Israel trusted them and allowed them close and they remained scorpions when they stung Israel because that is the nature of a scorpion. It is as old a situation as the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Meanwhile, the Middle East will remain the Middle East filled with intrigues, hatreds, broken trusts, suspicions, false promises and every other disdainful thing one remembers as originating there. The main players remain Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Only one of these nations does not strive to become an empire while others believe now is their time and others lie in wait for their opportunity.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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April 1, 2018

Hamas March of Return and the Reality Behind the Affair

 

Hamas hoped they could gather as many as one-hundred-thousand Gazan and have them, read as force them, to walk in a mass to the Gaza border fence and with any luck push it over and invade Israel. Why would Hamas want them to break down the border fence? Easy, Hamas hoped to force the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to have to shoot the invaders and Hamas hoped they might receive hundreds, or better yet thousands, of Gazans shot dead. They also hoped for thousands of injured, preferably bleeding, Gazans so they could take pictures and splash them all over the world media. Hamas even had chosen what they hoped would be their first victim of their planned sacrificial massacre. They sent this special infiltrator ahead of the rest and this individual crossed into Israel and stood to defy the IDF. The IDF met this initial Hamas operative and talked with her, that is right, a female. After hearing her out, the IDF took her into custody and returned her safely to her parents. This advance Hamas operative was a seven-year-old girl whom they hoped could be killed by the IDF and be their first, and probably most advertised to the world, victim of their attempt to infiltrate Israel by forcing crossings along the Gaza border. As far as Hamas succeeding at their goals, they failed on every front. They may have surpassed twenty-thousand but probably even fell short of that figure. Under twenty Gazans died in their mass exercise and even their inflated numbers place the injured at well short of one thousand. All of these numbers have mostly come from Hamas and European media as Israeli media was unavailable during Shabbat, which made them unavailable from sundown Friday until after sundown Saturday. Israeli commentary will likely come available today and will be available to the public. In the meanwhile, we can expect the Arab and Muslim world to attempt to play this as if it were the mass casualty event Hamas had planned. Already Turkey, Jordan and Egypt have condemned the Israeli actions as the use of “disproportionate force” and, according to Jordanian spokesman, Mohammad Momani, “excessive force against peaceful protesters who were marching to commemorate the Land Day and affirm their legitimate rights in accordance with international law and norms.” One can only guess how these nations would respond to over ten-thousand Israelis marching on their borders. I believe we all are fully aware that such a situation would result in a mass casualty event, exactly the kind Hamas desired.

 

Let us look at the entire event as dispassionately as possible. When the Arab world demands that Israel, as the occupying power, provide protection for such demonstrations, we need to answer with the truth. Israel disengaged from Gaza in August of 2005 and turned the entirety of Gaza with greenhouses intact over to the Palestinian Authority (PA). At this time Gaza became the Palestinian State, which has been touted by the world as the miracle that would prove the sincerity of the PA and the Arab’s desire for peace and to build a functioning nation. There was no blockade nor was there any examination of imports to Gaza while the PA was ruling Gaza. The immediate result of the granting independence to the Gazan population under the guidance and rule of the PA was the destruction of the greenhouses and the use of the irrigation pipes to manufacture rocket launch tubes and rockets to launch into Israel. There was an ensuing struggle between the PA and Hamas interests for control of Gaza, which devolved into total civil war and in the resulting coup; Hamas took control of Gaza sending the PA retreating back to Judea and Samaria where because of shared security responsibilities they were protected by Israeli security. In the ensuing period since the 2007 takeover of Gaza, Hamas has initiated three brief wars with Israel by launching hundreds of missiles into Israel targeting civilian locations distinct and separate from any possible military targets. Hamas has also built an entire complex of tunnels throughout Gaza linking rocket launching platforms, command and control bunkers, safe bunkers, and their main command center located in the subbasement of the Gaza Al-Shifa Hospital (image below). They place this bunker tactically so as to protect their elite leadership who hunker down below the hospital cozily safe in the knowledge that Israel will not bomb a hospital full of innocents. Hamas knows that Israel will go to great lengths not to shoot innocents which was the entire hope behind this march of the border. They were hoping that with the confusion, acrid smoke and noise of tires burning, bombs thrown over the fence, rocks also thrown at the troops and people pressing the fence while selected terrorists were assigned to climb the fence probably hoping that excitable youth would copy them and also start climbing the border fence. Hamas knew that anyone climbing the fence threatened to infiltrate Israel. So, what force did Israel use, read on.

 

Gaza Al-Shifa Hospital

Gaza Al-Shifa Hospital

 

Israel initially used tear gas and stun rounds to break up the people rushing the border. The people continued towards the border. When the rocks and explosives being thrown over the fence at the troops became a threat, the Israelis used rubber bullets. This deterred the masses, but it did not prevent the more hard core from attempting to scale the fence into Israel. When such individuals, most of which were likely terrorist agents using the demonstration as the intended cover for their infiltration, reached the point of entering Israel, those few were the ones Israel shot with live rounds. These were the less than twenty people total who died as a result of IDF action. Hamas admitted that five of those killed, Jihad Farina, Mohammed Abu Amaro, Ahmad Odeh, Saari Abu Odeh, and Musaav a-Salul, were members of Hamas’ military wing. According to International Law, every nation has the right to enforce their border. Were members of a drug cartel to attempt a new way of smuggling their drugs into the United States by hiding the couriers within a mass of people and walking the entirety at the United States border, the United States would do everything in their power to coral and prevent them from entering the nation and any who would attempt to run to infiltrate, they would be shot and killed. This was no different. Those from the mass of people who attempted to enter Israel were prevented from doing so. There was an exception to shooting the Hamas operatives who attempted to infiltrate Israel, and where we do not know her name, we do know that she was treated well and returned to her parents, as Israel does not shoot people indiscriminately, Israel only shoots when they have actual cause and threat. This is why out of around fifteen to twenty-thousand actual marchers, according to initial Israeli estimates, or if you prefer the thirty to fifty-thousand reported by other counts, gathered along the Gaza border along five separate locations (see map below), there were less than twenty deaths according to any report and anywhere from three hundred injured as initial reports claimed to the later estimates of well over a thousand injured. Let us seek an answer why the later estimates were so significantly higher than the initial estimates given by the hospital and clinics data.

 

Gaza Fence Assault Areas

Gaza Fence Assault Areas

 

The obvious answer is that Hamas later asked that anybody who was injured, including bruises or welts caused by rubber bullets or coughing from tear gas to report their injuries. These would include all who had any injury, real or imagined. Hamas can play games with injury numbers as injuries heal and therefore, injuries cannot be investigated a month or two down the line. Injuries do not always require medical treatment as injuries come in an infinite variety of severity. We can believe that the hospitals initially reported the number of people they treated for injuries, and that is one total. We could understandably even triple that number and believe it is a realistic number. Some are trying to multiply the initial hospital numbers five fold and more and these numbers should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Is it an actual injury if you were bumped and slightly bruised by other marchers? And even if such is so, is that the fault of the IDF? Those treated for welts and contusions caused by rubber bullets are IDF caused injuries. These people likely reached the fence and attempted to climb the fence or push the fence over. This resulted in being shot with rubber bullets and those who persisted after such a severe warning were the few who suffered a potentially worse fate. Hamas simply collected whatever numbers they could conceivably count as injured from their efforts knowing it is the one number they could enlarge without consequences and nobody could prove them lying. Let us now explain the final point, why Hamas did not bother to exaggerate the numbers who were killed, and this you will just love.

Do you remember the so-called Jenin Massacre? Remember the reported number of Palestinians killed started around twenty-five and within hours, they reached over one-hundred. By the next morning, the number of dead reached into the hundreds and some even reached as high as a thousand and even more. Then there was the Jenin investigation for potential war crime charges against the IDF troops and their commanders. The United Nations investigators found that the IDF numbers were the accurate estimates with a total of fifty-three dead (forty-eight militants and five civilians). Where the Palestinian and Arab estimates ran into difficulty when the audits are done by investigative agencies, they count death certificates and actual gravesites leading to hard data and realistic numbers. Hamas, and likely the entirety of the Palestinian terror groups, including the PLO, Fatah, the PA, Islamic Jihad and the rest, know that they must report actual deaths as exaggeration will not stand up to scrutiny which results in their appearing to be liars and thus making all their reported numbers suspect. Casualties can be reported in larger numbers when they are injuries, as injury can be defined to include everything from serious wounds requiring surgery to a simple scratch or bruise. So, the number of those killed will be somewhere between fifteen and twenty and the number of injured will be whatever number people decide to assign to the conflict. The problem is not over as Hamas has declared there to be extended protest until Nakba Day which comes in mid-May, with the promise of especially intense weekly demonstrations on Fridays. Expect grand protests with additional violence and threats on Israeli soil and peoples with these demonstrations as they continue and particularly those of Friday afternoon after prayers and the Imam delivery of particularly inflammatory sermons for the occasion.

 

 

The United Nations Security Council has declared a closed-door session as requested by Kuwait, as Jordan, Egypt, Arab League and Turkey accuse Israel of using disproportionate force against Palestinian demonstrators. There will be the usual denunciations of Israel for defending their sovereign territory. There is never an emergency closed-door United Nations Security Council session called by the other members when border guards shoot and kill drug and human smugglers crossing the southern or any other border. There is no emergency closed-door United Nations Security Council session called by the other members when illegal immigrants heading for the United States are shot crossing the Guatemala-Mexico border by Mexican border guards as Mexico takes their border very seriously. China is never investigated for shooting North Koreans escaping the totalitarian oppressions under Kim Jong-un in a closed-door session by the United Nations Security Council called by the other nations. There is only one nation which is investigated for protecting the inviolability of their sovereign border. It is only Israel who is placed under the microscope of international scrutiny, where even the most mundane acts are made out to be crimes against all of humanity and cause for continuous investigations. When Israel defends her border, investigations are demanded, when Israel imprisons terrorists who use vehicles to intentionally run-down civilians, the world demands investigations for Israel treating simple vehicular accidents as criminal events, when Israel responds to thousands of rockets by defeating the terror armies who launched the projectiles into her civilian areas she is investigated. One could almost believe that Israel would be investigated for holding election should the world dislike the resulting coalition seeking to replace the government with one more pliable and easily persuaded to take steps which might endanger the existence of the Jewish State. Perhaps even stating such is dangerous as it might give the world another idea on how to manipulate and strangle Israel leading to her final defeat and destruction. Europe would support such an end, the Arab and Muslim World would largely celebrate such an end and work to bring such about while the American people and the few nations who remember the great and timely assistances received from the tiny little Jewish enclave when natural disasters struck or the agricultural technologies and medical technologies provided by IsraAID and Save a Child’s Heart (SACH) asking only that these receiving the Israeli provided aid take the knowledge and use it to advance their nations and its health. There is no charges and no payment demanded as the smiles of those assisted is sufficient payment. The result of the United Nations Security Council closed-door session on Gaza will ignore the one truth which appears to have escaped the world, Gaza is actually the real Palestinian nation as Israel no longer occupies any of that land and had surrendered all claim to Gaza. Israel gave Gaza to the PA and Hamas took it in a coup and now rules in partnership with Islamic Jihad. Perhaps the United Nations Security Council will discuss the responsibility of Hamas to allow the reconstruction rather than use the concrete to build tunnels infiltrating Israel. Perhaps the United Nations Security Council will investigate why there is no economic development in Gaza and the numerous other oppressions executed on the people of Gaza by their rulers who spend every amount of aid they can take to destroy their neighboring country of Israel. Israel would love to be able to ignore much of what occurs in Gaza but when the government of Gaza spends well over three-quarters of their available resources for Israeli destruction and swears they will murder every Jew on the planet, is it any wonder that Israel is nervous when thousands of Gazans approach her border. Perhaps the United Nations Security Council can investigate these little truths and do something positive for a change instead of trying to fault Israel at every turn.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 13, 2018

Lapid Using Liberman to Shoot for the Stars

 

Everybody knows the worst kept secret in Israel, Yair Lapid has designs of replacing Bibi as soon as he can get elections and then he is aiming to replace the Heavenly Choir. Yair Lapid thinks very highly of himself and his silver tongue which has gotten him far in life. His ability to set dulcet tones to the lyrics written on his teleprompter should remind people of another great speaker whose heart was cold and calculations have placed the Middle East in jeopardy by strengthening Iran. That sweet talker was President Obama, the still revered leftist who used Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals to take the already radical Iran and use an injection of Russian military airpower to reinstate al-Assad and Iran in a power position in Syria and with Hezballah in Lebanon while allowing Hamas to reunite their ties with Iran who are looking like the strong horse. These also emboldened Turkey to attempt and solve their Kurdish problem with another genocide which will be denied while it is occurring. All the wrong players in the Middle East are now playing more powerful positions and Russia is stuck in the quicksand.

 

Where would Yair Lapid fit into this formula? He would be the next installment in what next can go wrong. Lapid is very talented at telling everybody what they wish to hear. He will tell much of Israel that he is strictly a Zionist and stands to the right of Netanyahu. He will tell the university crowd that he strongly supports all versions of individual rights and the Two State Solution is the central spine of his Middle East policies. He tells the labor union that he stands one-hundred-percent behind Histadrut and supports stronger worker mediations. Basically he is the chameleon who stands before any crowd and adopts their greatest hopes and fears into reality and instantly becomes their best hope. Lapid only really believes in three things, his visceral distaste for everything religious, especially Jewish; his belief that he can find a gift so worthy that he will found two states for two people even if both those people will end up as Arab states and the Jews vanquished, and Lapid believes in Lapid and would claim to be the Messiah if he believed in the Messiah. All in all, the three things are all actually just ways for aggrandizing the last one, Yair Lapid.

 

Yair Lapid Enticing Avigdor Lieberman into Challenging Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu

Yair Lapid Enticing Avigdor Lieberman into Challenging Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu

 

Lapid is also very good at wrapping people into his plans by making them promises, some which he would actually keep. Currently Yair Lapid wants one thing and only one thing, a means to replace Bibi Netanyahu as Prime Minister. His plan is so painfully obvious; it would take a deaf, dumb and blind man not to see it. Currently, Lapid is planning to drive a wedge between Yisrael Beytenu leader, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and his boss, Prime Minister Netanyahu. The weapon is the Haredi draft bill which has been laboriously hammered out to almost everyone’s satisfaction. Lapid has been whispering into Lieberman’s ear telling him of all the power he will bestow upon him when he makes his coalition after new elections. Unfortunately for Bibi, Lieberman has been soaking the praise and lauding up like a schoolboy receiving praise from his favorite teacher. The fact that Lieberman and his party share much of Lapid’s dislike for the religious is not a secret but this new draft law was drawn up extracting almost everything possible from the religious parties and is actually a fair and tough bill. But Yair wants elections and is willing to do anything to get them and to get them now. So why is it so important to get elections immediately?

 

That is an easy one to answer. Currently Bibi is, as usual, under a myriad of investigations and has been recommended for being brought to trial once more by the police who never tire of rejections. They were unable to get a single charge leveled against Bibi with a far more leftist Attorney General in the past and they are now facing a serious and strict law abiding Attorney General who will not take kindly to having his office used or his time wasted. Lapid knows that if he can force elections, then he can go to the police, who already have him as their main witness for at least one of their cases against Netanyahu, and drop a few well-timed “bombshells” and they can add that to their attempt to have the Prime Minister arraigned, and that could seal the deal. If an arraignment can be timed to coincide with new elections, Lapid can sue in the Supreme Court to have Netanyahu barred from seeking the office of Prime Minister which would weaken the power of Likud and as his party is polling number two, he sees himself as naturally replacing Likud with his party, Yesh Atid. He has even gone so far as to file bills to dissolve the Knesset in conjunction with Meretz. Meretz Party has no chance to lead a coalition and thus is filing purely to help Lapid. If filing with Meretz does not show his true alignment to the world, and Israel particularly, nothing will and his con just might work. The main part of the Lapid coup is to have Bibi arraigned and new elections so the Supreme Court can take Bibi out of the picture making Yair Lapid, as he sees it and us fear, the next Prime Minister. That is a frightful scenario which we would hate to watch occur.

 

The problem here is that Lapid is trying to pull down the coalition while working to have the Prime Minister prevented from defending himself through elections and will do whatever it takes to become Prime Minister and impose his cleverly concealed leftist principles and love of the Two State Solution in his attempt to win a Nobel Peace Prize even if that requires the destruction of Israel as the Jewish State and homeland to the Jewish People. Everything Yair Lapid does is for the aggrandizement of Yair Lapid. He views himself as a larger than life, anointed by the fates, and infallible man of principle. We view him as utterly lacking that final quality, flawed in many ways, and hope he is fated to never hold power of Prime Minister of Israel. We foresee his attaining that dreamed of position leading to placing Hamas backed completely by Iran and armed similarly to Hezballah into Judea and Samaria after agreeing to remove all the Jewish communities from beyond the Green Line. Did we mention he hates them as well though would promise them he would protect them to their faces, redividing Jerusalem, removing all border checkpoints, destroying the terror barrier on his way in full retreat and pulling every last IDF and other force and all intelligence operatives from beyond the Green Line and expect the Arabs to remain an unarmed state. Of course as soon as the Palestinian Authority has been overthrown and Hamas, or worse, Hezballah, replaces them with all the officials still seen as belonging to anything other than a fully religious theocratic terror state supporter removed from any position of power and possibly violently removed, Iran will arm the area and ready it for an attack on Israel. For Iran and both Hezballah and Hamas, being a nationalistic terror state supporter would be inadequate as only pure religious fanaticism will be accepted once Iran gets into the act. This would leave only the Jordan and the Sinai Peninsula left before Israel would be encircled by Iran on every land border.

 

It has been known that the Syrian leader, Bashir al-Assad, and his father before him, have always had designs on rejoining Jordan to Syria as they see Jordan and Israel as parts of Southern Syria and have designs on militarily reestablishing their Syrian hegemony. Any Syrian hegemonic interests would merely be serving the hegemonic obsessions of Iran. Iran would hardly need but blink in order to overwhelm the Jordanian forces and take Jordan. That would be an easy task except for two small items, Jordan has long been allied with the United States and Britain plus Israel is well aware that it is in their interests to prevent such a takeover. During the Black September attempted coup by Yasser Arafat and the PLO in 1970, Syrian forces dressed as Fedayeen crossed the border with air support. The Syrian efforts ended fairly quickly as they met more formidable resistance than they expected and their PLO allies were being decimated and were fleeing to Lebanon. Syria gave up on that attempt to reunify Jordan into southern Syria. That lesson was given Bashir’s father, he may require his own lesson before he learns plus he has Iran whispering in his ear. Another difference is that Jordan and Israel have a signed peace agreement and the United States has a rather unpredictable President in Trump. President Trump has pretty much steered clear of much in the Middle East beyond strongly backing Israel and recognizing the obvious by announcing that the United States will move its embassy to the Israeli capital of Jerusalem.

 

Syria has already fired into Israel sufficiently and been sternly blunted by IDF responses. When Syria and Iran invaded Israeli airspace with a military drone, not only was the drone quickly destroyed, but the command and control center which sent the drone and other similar installations were destroyed in response with Israel losing one aircraft as a response. Attempting at testing Israel through attacking Jordan may not be the wisest course of action, but we are talking of the Assad Regime which has never shown much of a propensity for wisdom guided actions. Let it rest that the Middle East is dangerous enough and does not need Yair Lapid as Prime Minister of Israel; it requires a strong and dependable Israel ready to act as necessitated. That would, for the present, mean Bibi Netanyahu at the very least until the end of this government’s legal term and elections on November 5, 2019. After that many expect that Bibi would either allow a new person to lead Likud or announce that this would be his final time serving as Prime Minister and start to groom a new leader for his party. It would be wise for that to begin immediately and there are a number of contenders, but that should wait for another time.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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