Beyond the Cusp

March 30, 2015

The Coming Deal that Iran Wrote

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The defection of Amir Hossein Mottaghi, Rouhani’s public relations manager during his 2013 election campaign for President, removed any doubts or glimmers of hope that what was being acted out in Lausanne, Switzerland, nestled in the Alps, was an actual deal meant to deny Iran anything they desired and packaged it as an accomplishment. The crux of the problem is that the Iranians have neither desired nor needed any form of a deal as they always were and are going to do exactly that which best serves their purposes, and that is to build as many nuclear warheads and as many missiles on which to place those warheads and do so at whatever speed they desire. The warning signs have been everywhere for all to see. Even the French and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) claim the deal is so pathetic as it does not limit or even begin to prevent the Iranians from proceeding forward to producing nuclear weapons nor does it address the concerns expressed recently by the IAEA, an agency notorious for being unable to prevent or even monitor any nation which has had any desire to attain nuclear weapons. When the IAEA is expressing serious concerns that the Iranians have kept much of their work and engineering work for the supplemental items to weaponized nuclear materials such as the triggering mechanisms, warhead design and other necessities concealed and has been reticent about reporting such activities, then there may be a serious problem. The IAEA reports claim that Iran has refused to come clean in any number of areas and that they suspect Iran has nuclear research and production sites which they have refused to report and may even have some of which the IAEA has no knowledge or information about and may reveal in time that the Iranians are running a parallel program intended solely to produce the required nuclear weapons materials such as highly enriched uranium and all other parts required for the manufacture of nuclear weapons thus allowing for Iran to negotiate a deal while producing nuclear weapons clandestinely.


Meanwhile every report out of Lausanne, Switzerland, has been another piece of the puzzle which is beginning to reveal an ugly reality. What is becoming evidenced this week is satisfying the worst fears of those watching the charade being carried out by the United States negotiating team which appears to be cheering and working for the Iranians and simply attempting to drag any unwilling partners along down the primrose path and producing a document replete with the appropriate signatures all signifying nothing. The Iranians have taken measure of President Obama and found him to be lacking in all ways. They have detected an empty suit which envisions himself as a great negotiator whose simple presence, even from behind the scenes, as so inspiring that others will bend to his will and he can win the day with virtually no effort. They have seen the man-child for what he truly represents, a narcissist with delusions of grandeur and of great moral and intellectual prowess unequaled in all fields and so full of himself that he cannot even begin to believe the reality that Iran has simply been going through the motions of negotiating and simply have been baiting the United States team, the same team which negotiated the agreements with North Korea as they became nuclear capable, manipulating their every response leading them to the exact point the Iranians desired with which they would continue their clandestine operations while also using their agreed upon centrifuges working in order to continue the façade of staying within the letter of the agreement. Iran has used the negotiations to their advantage all the while laughing at the ridiculous actions of President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry who have taken every word and action to heart and have never actually shown any intelligence or perceptive abilities all the while being largely led around by their noses going wherever the Iranians had wished to move them. As we have pointed to before, the French see the deal as weak and beyond the monitoring force’s ability to enforce. The IAEA will continue to never receive total access to the Iranian nuclear facilities thus never knowing definitively whether or not Iran is producing nuclear weapons behind their backs.


The Institute for Science and International Security was quoted in The Tower magazine having stated, “A deal that does not include Iran addressing the IAEA’s concerns about the past and possibly ongoing military dimensions of its nuclear program would undermine the verifiability of the deal, and thus the credibility of a comprehensive deal.” Their spokesperson was further quoted, “Fordo will remain open, and its centrifuges will spin.” As the information attained monitoring the news out of the negotiations revealed that it truly is a part of the deal that Iran may continue to utilize the Fordo facilities and continue to maintain six-thousand centrifuges at any given time by our latest information. Six-thousand centrifuges are a really large number for supplying fuel rods for the few reactors currently in use and thus one must conclude that Iran has measured the spines of the Western powers and found them to be lacking and thus capable of misleading themselves and their public into believing they had negotiated a good deal. The Iranians were likely convinced that they were negotiating with a pack of fools simply by how they reacted to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress by claiming they had Iran cornered and that the deal was as good as was possible all things being considered. Meanwhile, the IAEA had been sounding the warning bells trying to get anybody at the negotiating table in Lausanne, Switzerland to heed their concerns and realize that the deal they are debating is a complete and total lie as the Iranians have been dealing falsely and has no intentions of observing any limitations written into the deal and are making as many of the terms denoted in vague terminology such that there is potentially two manners in which one would be able to interpret the meaning and operate their centrifuges and other materials as freely as they wish. The truth of the matter is that the Iranians often were only capable of running their centrifuges at around forty to forty-five percent of capacity thus agreeing to around one-third of the units in use at any given time, so the six-thousand centrifuges turns out to be the number they use at any given time.


The claims by the French that the United States has spent much of the negotiations parroting the Iranian demands trying to make them more readily digestible for the remaining members of the P5+1 were pretty much validated by the defecting Amir Hossein Mottaghi. His relating the weakness displayed by the United States negotiating team also gives credibility to the claims made a couple of weeks ago by some Iranian dissidents that Iran had recently completed and already using a new unreported uranium enrichment site beneath the outskirts of Tehran. They explained the methods used to conceal its construction and how centrifuges were brought into the facility and assembled within the new laboratory and they claimed that the new site was recently completed and the cascades of centrifuges were tested and functioning well producing enriched uranium. The dissidents’ were dismissed as alarmists by the United States and dismissed as unreliable, pretty much as these same dissidents were dismissed when originally claiming that Iran was running secretive enrichment and other nuclear weapons related development which eventually proved valid producing these very talks.


But Iranian uranium enrichment is but the tip of the iceberg whose concern should be taken more seriously by the United States and the rest of the appeasing western nations. There is also the question of their rocket and missile research and their near completion of a true ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead anywhere in the globe with relative accuracy. The definition of relatively accuracy is simply because with nuclear weapons, like horseshoes, often close is sufficient to score. This is one reason the difference between the super accurate United States missiles which were capable of striking their exact target missing it by no more than a couple of inches and their Soviet counterparts which had an accuracy of striking within twenty to thirty or even fifty yards really made little difference when talking about warheads which would lay waste to most of the targeted city. It has been proven by observing Iranian rocket and then missile tests that they have progressed from the simple rockets, which generally went where you pointed them and would strike more often than not within the country they were aimed at, though this might have proved more difficult when striking Israel due to her narrow profile, to large ballistic missiles which have ranges of up to three-thousand kilometers and striking within fifty kilometers of their intended target. Iran has recently claimed to have developed a cruise missile with a range of close to two-thousand kilometers and an accuracy of less than ten meters, an impressive level of accuracy. So there is this front which makes the Iranian development of nuclear weapons all the more ominous and threatening, especially with their continued chanting of, “Death to America”, and “Death to Israel.” These chants which have been a response to the policies of their government and the promises given to destroy these two main enemies and obstacles to a world dominated and ruled by the Iranian Mullahs.


This concept brings us to the last leg of the triad of threats posed by the Iranians, namely their ever more rapid attempts to control areas of the Middle East and their expressed desire to further their conquest across Europe. Additional to the Iranian conquest to becoming the leader of the entire Muslim world and spreading their form of Islam across Europe, they have a particular desire to vanquish the Greek islands in revenge for the Persians defeat at the hands of Alexander the Great. The Iranian eventual goal is perhaps the most difficult to believe and pertains to drenching the entire planet in a conflagration in order to speed up the arrival of the Messiah, the Twelfth Imam, who will climb from his hiding place in a well in Qom and lead the Iranians in the purification and conquest of all mankind. This sounds incredulous when one first contends with this Iranian belief that their savior has been hiding since childhood in a well to avoid being murdered by his enemies, the Sunni Muslims, and upon the world being bathed in fire and chaos will climb out from that very same well to lead in the Shiite conquest of the earth. Those who believe this concept are referred to as Twelvers for obvious reasons though I might have called them as duodenary dunderheads. This is perhaps partly the reason why many who have studied the leadership of Iran have posited the idea that deterrence is impossible as such a threat merely plays into their belief that the Twelfth Imam would then arise and lead them to their destined victory over all odds and adversaries, and that is truly frightening when one realizes that it is more likely that Iran is currently manufacturing nuclear warheads which are merely waiting to be married to their own ICBM and launched to the far corners of the globe and everywhere inbetween in order to bring on the salvation of the true believers. If this is not frightening enough to any sane individual, then I know not what might be.


Beyond the Cusp


February 3, 2012

Doth Israel Protest Too Much

Filed under: Uncategorized — qwertster @ 6:52 AM
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It seems virtually every fifth story in the news is related in one way or another to the coming military strike on Iran and their nuclear program, more often than not intimating that Israel will be the country to first push an attack, not giving the sanctions against Iran by the United States and the European Union time to work despite them ramping up steadily with time. The basic formula that has been presented is that Iran will be containable even should they have nuclear weaponry in much the same guaranteed method of mutually assured destruction which makes the threat of utter and complete destruction of a retaliatory strike should the offending nation use their nuclear weapons in an offensive manner. This entire theory of checking the use of nuclear weapons by any country in an offensive use with destruction hinges entirely upon all sides being rational and non- apocalyptic. Unfortunately, Iran is a theocratic state whose President Ahmadinejad is actually an apocalyptic believer in the Twelfth Imam and the necessity of a period of utter and complete chaos and bloodshed with war, violence and bloodshed cloaking the world in order to bring forth the necessary conditions for the coming of the Twelfth Imam and the final Caliphate where Shia Islam will rule over the world eternally.


Almost every presumed authority on what the future may hold holds that believing that President Ahmadinejad or Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be willing to risk a retaliatory attack, especially a nuclear attack, against Iran, including themselves, which would be so completely total and destructive by utilizing a nuclear first strike against Israel or any other country which would force such retaliation by the United States is simply insane. They contend that nobody would risk such an attack on their own country and thus Iran will act as predicted by a rational and sane set of criteria. Let’s all hope together that their predictions are true and such terrors will not be released anywhere. The problem is that history teaches us that when certain people, megalomaniacs, absolute tyrants, and others who are usually related to as evil incarnate, promise to release untold horrors upon the world, or just a certain group or part of the world, they should be heeded and such threats taken as deadly serious. As World War II proved, we ignore these threats at our own peril.


But, is Israel the first target for Iran, the only target for Iran, or the final end target of Iran. This is a far more complicated question than it may first appear. There can be little argument that Israel is most definitely one of the main targets of the Iranian leadership. It should also be obvious by now that the leadership of Iran also see a world under Shia Islamic rule if not just Iranian control. The majority of their highest leaders are what are referred to as Twelvers, those who believe in the return of the Twelfth Imam. President Ahmadinejad has stated a number of times that he is firm in his belief that he has been tasked to bring on the return of the Twelfth Imam and that this Imam will return in 2012. Since no price is too high to pay and sinking the world into complete and total chaos and an all-encompassing war is the intent, how exactly does one believe that threatening to bring annihilation upon Iran should the Iranian leadership use their soon to be accomplished nuclear weaponry upon another country, even or especially Israel, is any sort of threat and not just further incentive. This threat is made presumably by the Western World but is basically backed up solely by the United States. This begs the question of which would the logical and sane, according to others, not I, leaders of Iran attack first, Israel or the United States. Let’s look at it with cold logic. Should Iran attack Israel first it risks the retaliation of the United States and the rest of the West, not an appetizing option for the Iranian leadership. That attack plan would depend on the United States and the West not reacting and inflicting total destruction upon Iran and just allow them to get off free of any consequences. Not too likely. Now, what if instead the Iranians decapitated the United States leadership and crippled the entire United States ability to strike back with an initial attack I will describe shortly. What do they then face? The complete and total retaliatory power of Israel. The Iranian leadership has already stated that they do not believe Israel could even put a dent in the Muslim World while the Muslim World could easily bring utter destruction down on Israel, if only the United States were not standing behind Israel. So, imagine you are an Iranian Military Planner and you have to figure the best approach and order in attack to give Iran the best chance of winning a World conflagration. Do you attack Israel and then have your entire country laid waste and your plans coming to a quick and total end or do you attack the United States first crippling their response ability and then take on Israel and Europe et al.


So, how does Iran decapitate the United States and prevent an immediate and total destructive retaliatory strike? The first thing any attacking force would need to accomplish with their initial attack would be to prevent any coordination by the United States and their entire military capabilities which are spread world-wide. We have all heard about the extremely deleterious effects created by a nuclear weapon being detonated high over the Earth initiating an EMP pulse. What would be the result of an Iranian EMP attack released in three pulses which would cover the entire American electrical grid and capabilities? They wait until Congress and the whole United States Government is in Washington DC. Then they let loose their first EMP attack high over West Virginia blacking out the East Coast. Within the hour they also launch an EMP attack over the western edge of Lake Tahoe taking out the entire West Coast. A final attack, or if a complete and total guarantee is desired, two attacks over the central areas of the United States. For one attack you aim for St Louis and for two attacks you use eastern Colorado and central Kentucky. The rest of the forces of the United States would only know that they had no contact with the mainland commanders but no idea from where the attack originated. So, how could Iran make such an attack?


We know that the Iranian military has practiced launching ballistic missiles from the decks of cargo ships. Using their current longest range missiles would allow up to a thousand to a fifteen-hundred kilometer ranges. Launching from ships off of the coast of Virginia, the coast of California, and the final two from Cuba or Mexico or even the Gulf of Mexico and these attacks are within their current capabilities. We have also been labeling their missile launches during military exercises as failures when the missiles exploded moments before reaching the apex. Exploding your nuclear weapon close to the apex is exactly the method one would use for an EMP attack. Lastly, by detonating the weapon on its rising approach to its apex would minimize any chance of interception. Hopefully, this is exactly what most will think, the ranting of somebody who worries way too much or has fallen prey to conspiracies of impending doom. But then….


Beyond the Cusp


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