Beyond the Cusp

May 25, 2018

Pompeo and Iran Faceoff

 

Pompeo is the new United States Secretary of State and he made a grand and flamboyant entrance. Apparently, President Trump finally got exactly what he desired at the State Department, someone who understands he works for the President and not in competition with the President when it comes to foreign policy. Pompeo understands he is there in order to advise and explain the implications, the intricacies, the consequences, the repercussions, the potential reactions of allies and adversaries plus, when requested, his opinion tempered by his years with the CIA. Pompeo has now stepped out with the suggestions for Iran to follow if they wish to be welcomed into the family of nations, or at least avoid sanctions from the United States. So, we guess that the best idea now is to produce the dozen demands from President Trump as outlined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

 

1. Iran must declare to the IAEA a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.
2. Iran must stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing. This includes closing its heavy water reactor.
3. Iran must also provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the entire country.
4. Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or development of nuclear-capable missile systems.
5. Iran must release all US citizens, as well as citizens of our partners and allies, each of them detained on spurious charges.
6. Iran must end support to Middle East terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
7. Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi government and permit the disarming, demobilization, and reintegration of Shia militias.
8. Iran must also end its military support for the Houthi militia and work towards a peaceful political settlement in Yemen.
9. Iran must withdraw all forces under Iranian command throughout the entirety of Syria.
10. Iran, too, must end support for the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and the region, and cease harboring senior al-Qaeda leaders.
11. Iran, too, must end the IRG Qods Force’s support for terrorists and militant partners around the world.
12. Iran must end its threatening behavior against its neighbors — many of whom are US allies. This certainly includes its threats to destroy Israel, and its firing of missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also includes threats to international shipping and destructive — and destructive cyberattacks.

 

The Dry Bones cartoons described these demands as President Trump demanding “Unconditional Surrender” from Iran. Others have tried to represent them as demanding that Iran be like any peaceful democratic nations. There might be a small problem there; Iran is anything but a peaceful democratic nation, it is a Theocracy disguised as a democratic nation but run as a Mullocracy where the Supreme Leader who receives his orders from Allah, or so we are to believe, and whatever he dreams up in his overblown egotistical imagination is to be implemented. Iran responded with his message, which went like this, “The conditions of the United States are meaningless. Iran has no need for anyone’s permission to act in the Middle East. Our missile programs will be determined according to Iranian needs.” Meanwhile, from Israel we heard from the leader of the Jewish Home Party, Minister Naftali Bennett, who said, “The bottom line of Pompeo’s speech and the new policy toward Iran is that it can either invest in improving the lives of Iranians or invest in taking the lives of other people. It cannot do both.” The initial reaction here was a simple recognition that the gauntlet has been thrown, and that is where we will start.

 

Display featuring missiles and portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei (Reuters)

Display featuring missiles and portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei (Reuters)

 

The Iranian threat is being met head on by President Trump, which he announced through Mike Pompeo’s speech. Now comes the long game, how long will depend on a number of conditions which will be recognized along the path as we progress. We might be watching the pages of history being written before us in the newspapers and blogs which cover the news of our age. The gauntlet was lain out in the Pompeo speech and responded to be the Iranian spokespeople in which they basically told President Trump, bring it. The ball is back in the court of President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo. Iran is not going to comply, not now, not ever. Iran is willing to push the confrontation to whatever point it takes and will destroy their entire economy and the lives of thousands, if not millions, of Iranian citizens just to prove that they cannot be intimidated. The Iranian leaders, the Mullahs, all believe that they are destined to be the eventual rulers of the world, and as such cannot be intimidated, defeated or otherwise deterred from completing Allah’s will on Earth. So, the next step is going to be the initial sanctions as President Trump did say that the sanctions would be applied in steps getting ever more restrictive, as sanctions tend to be.

 

Where does this end? Where do things such as this ever end? When two nations, both of which believe the world is their oyster, come at loggerheads, there can be only one end, either one of the two backs down and accepts the other being of greater power or they go all in in a contest of one another’s mettle, and that means another war in the Middle East. That brings us to the big question, which nation will be the one to initiate hostilities and in what form will that attack take? That attack’s form will depend upon which nation initiates the actual hot war. The United States would likely use conventional weaponry and any initial attack will target the Iranian missile launch locations and their known nuclear research and enrichment facilities even to include the Fordow site near Qom built by tunneling deep into the mountain in an attempt to make it impervious to attack, but the entrances are above ground and not impervious, just defended by the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems. The escalations will be planned such that they do not impact the citizens of Iran, as President Trump rightfully believes that they are the ultimate weapon for ending the rule of the Mullahs. President Trump would most prefer that there be a revolution by the Iranian people to remove the Mullahs and install governance of their choosing. Then there is the problematic situation as to how the United States could assist the Iranian people without actually declaring or entering open warfare. The preferred means of accomplishing such a task usually falls to some of the most well trained warriors on the planet, the Navy Seals and the Army Delta Force.

 

Fordow Nuclear Site Near Qom Built by Tunneling Deep into the Mountain

Fordow Nuclear Site Near Qom Built by Tunneling Deep into the Mountain

 

But what if the Iranians decide to declare their war first? This would be where the United States anti-missile systems world-wide would face a real wartime test. Iran would likely use a multi-pronged attack. There would be a number of high altitude nuclear missiles aimed towards the heart of the United States which would be specially set for maximum electro-magnetic pulse. These warheads would initially be launched disguised as scientific satellites. These might even have actual equipment which would operate just as a weather satellite or other normative satellite. They could be placed in orbit years ahead of their use or simply months ahead of their use. These would be assisted with normal, high-explosive thermonuclear weapons launched at the major cities of the United States. These might even be launched from freighters which would be following normal cargo transport routes only deviating in the final hours to reach their launch points surrounding the United States. Such launchings would be difficult to intercept, as they would have flight times of less than one hour. The world would face an extreme situation, as the United States is the largest exporter of food responsible for feeding a large part of the world’s population. It is almost unnecessary to point out that the United States retaliatory strike would bring the end of Iran which would be carried out by the United States Boomers, their nuclear carrying submarines.

 

The world had best hope there exists a third means of ending this standoff, and unfortunately there does exist such a solution. The other solution could come in three years or seven, all depending on United States political elections. The change can come simply due to a new President being elected. In three years, President Trump faces a reelection campaign. Trump is quite likely to face his first test just retaining the Republican nomination, as he is sure to be contested. This is highly irregular, but there is a major part of the Republican Party which seriously desires removing the Trump blight they believe he has leveled against their party. Even should President Trump manage to continue on as the Republican nominee, the primary would leave him as an even more damaged candidate than he would otherwise have been. Then President Trump would face his Democrat contester in the General Election. Even should President Trump win reelection, he would not be permitted to run in the following election four years later. Should Iran choose, they could simply outwait President Trump and simply suffer the sanctions until somebody more favorable to Iran is elected. Even should the next President decide to continue the sanctions, eventually there will be somebody elected who would decide to lift the sanctions and seek better relations with Iran and the Mullahs. The United States might potentially elect a President who would turn out to be even more pro-Iranian than was any previous President. Such a selection could be one such as Keith Ellison, Abdul El-Sayed or Saba Ahmed or some other candidate who would wish to support relations with Iran (we cannot actually claim any of the above would support Iran).

 

Then there is a fourth possibility which could lead almost anywhere. Iran could decide that the sanctions would only make them weaker in the future and move on whatever target they desired next rather than wait for time to pass. They might initiate a conflict with Saudi Arabia, Israel or even Turkey. Iran could choose any target they have already in their plans for world conquest which the Supreme Leader, both Ali Khamenei and Ruhollah Khomeini, his predecessor. This is the destine and their belief is so deep that they believe that they rule the second Persian Empire, just as Turkey’s President Erdogan believes he is the first Caliph of the new Ottoman Empire. One can only wonder what other leaders hiding in the Middle East believe that they are some reincarnation or successor to some past empire, possibly Egypt, Babylon, Assyria, Carthaginian or choose your favorite lost empire. The only current people with delusions who are of any danger are the two mentioned above. Erdogan could have been contained had only the United States State Department have given just a small amount of encouragement to the Kurds to declare independence and have the United States provide a modicum of assistance. Iran, on the other hand, is already establishing their bases for the conquest of the Middle East after which they will need to choose either Europe or North Africa. We would make our best bet on Northern Africa, as they would desire to fully convert and bring the Islamic World behind any further conquests. Thusfar, with minimal notice from most of the world beyond the Israelis and the vanquished, Iran has established a corridor reaching from the Indian Ocean through to the Mediterranean Sea. They have also established a second front against Saudi Arabia in the south from Yemen to compliment their front from Iraq. One can only wonder what might happen when Turkey sweeping across the northern Kurdish regions in Syria comes to the attention of the Iranians as they believe that Syria is their sandbox. The world sure is an interesting place, particularly in the Middle East. Let us hope it does not get any more interesting.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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May 15, 2018

Today is Nakba Day, A Celebration of Failure

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:57 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

One question which is commonly asked is what exactly is Nakba Day. The answer starts with the translation of the word Nakba (also spelled Naqba), which means Catastrophe. This begs what was the Nakba, what was the catastrophe. Well, that gets to be more complex than one might expect because there are a number of items on the list with many of them steeped in misconceptions, lies, storytelling, justifying horrific acts, and when explaining it to people innocent and completely uninformed, that is an opening for Taqiyya. To begin our discussion, please allow us to try and concoct a list of the catastrophes which are often attributed to Nakba Day. There is the biggest of the items on the list and probably the one that hurts the inner feelings of superiority that many in Islam believe their societies actually are. We are talking about the fact that after almost two years of open warfare, six Arab nations (Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia) with some measure of assistance from a number of militias as well as troops from Yemen, Libya and the Sudan and planning assistance from British and German officers just out of World War II and the Zionist Entity, the Jewish State, Israel was still in existence and fighting back and even starting to get organized sufficiently that they had begun to advance and push the Arab armies back which led to the Jews opening a passage into Jerusalem. The Arabs were losing the war after pushing the Jews back to the coastal regions and out of most of the Judean Hills and now, the Jews were on the verge of a breakout. The Arab League and the leaders from the Arab world demanded that the world prevent the Jews advancing by forcing an end to the war.

 

The United Nations had drawn lines in General Assembly Resolution 181 in 1947 that called for the partition of Palestine into Arab and Jewish states (see map below), with the city of Jerusalem as a corpus separatum (Latin: “separate entity”) to be governed by a special international regime. This was not a binding resolution and only suggested a solution and would only apply if both the Israelis and the Arab League accepted the agreement unconditionally and immediately, it would be enacted, not reject it and then decide that it would be better for you fifty years later and then demand it be applied. The Israelis accepted the agreement but the Arab League refused it as impossible for them to agree as it still allowed for a Jewish State ruled by Jews and not the Jews to be ruled over by their Arab superiors. United Nations Resolution 194 allowed for refugees to return to their homes providing they agree to live in peace within the area where they would be located. This too was a sticking point as the Arab leadership swore to never allow the Jewish State to live in peace and this made the return of refugees difficult to impossible. Resolution 194 also established the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine (UNCCP) to mediate between the Arabs and Israelis and solve their differences. The Commission consisted of France, Turkey and the United States. The UNCCP convened a conference in Lausanne, Switzerland of the parties involved in the war where the Lausanne Protocol was produced. This conference simply attempted to force the borders as defined in UNGA Res 181 on Israel which would have forced her to forfeit territory and accept all Arab refugees claiming to have been expelled. Israel was coerced into signing but made reference that they did not accept the borders or the acceptance of the Arab refugees, as they doubted their acceptance of Israeli rule and believed them to be enemies of the State of Israel. This led to an interesting exchange between President Truman and Prime Minister Ben Gurion. President Harry S. Truman sent on May 28, 1949, a note to Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, expressing that he was “seriously disturbed” with the “excessive Israeli claims to further territory within Palestine” and its “rejection of the basic principles of the Resolution set forth by the GA on 11 December 1948.” The US position was that Israel should offer territorial compensation for any territory it had acquired outside the boundaries set forth in the UN resolution of November 29, 1947. The US warned that the Israeli attitude thus far at Lausanne “must inevitably lead to a rupture in those conversations” and further stated, “ that a rupture arising out of the rigid attitude of the Government of Israel would place a heavy responsibility upon that Government and people.” The US warned for a revision of its relation with Israel threatening a break and loss of support. Not backing down, when the US ambassador the next day handed over the telegram to Prime Minister Ben-Gurion, the Prime Minister reacted saying that United States and United Nations had been unable to enforce November 29 resolution and to prevent the Arab aggression. Ben-Gurion stated that Israel was not established on basis of the resolution but on its declaration of independence on the fifth of Iyar in the year 5708 as well as on that of successful war of defense. Because the Arab states refused to make peace, he regarded the refugees potential enemies of Israel. There would be no backing down by Israel on her stated positions placing the ball squarely in the American’s court. Meanwhile, the IDF was making gains on the field of battle and the Arabs were desperate to end the fighting before they lost any further ground, so Israel signed separate armistices with Egypt on February 24, 1949, Lebanon on March 23, 1949, Jordan on April 3, 1949, and Syria on July 20, 1949 with each demarcation line being the positions held by their respective militaries (see map below).

 

Boundaries as described in the United Nations Partition Plan and Armistice Demarcation Lines of 1949

Boundaries as described in the United Nations Partition Plan
and Armistice Demarcation Lines of 1949

 

The Arabs’ loss to the Jewish State was a deep wound in their pride and their leaders lost face. They quickly began to express how they had defeated the Jews who were saved by the United Nations and the imperialist European and American powers and even the Soviet Union had worked for the Jews. They told how the Jews manipulated the world against the Arab cause and with time, it became that the Arabs actually succeeded and had won a great victory holding out against the world which the Jews had on their side. The reality was quite a bit different as the telegram from President Truman depicted. The next part of the Nakba, the catastrophe, was the refugees. There were about half a million refugees after the war. The majority of these refugees had left willingly and the remainders were largely from Arab villages which fought as a fifth column behind the Israeli lines destroying supply convoys and attacking troops from behind or in transit. Whenever a village was used for an attack, the Israelis would force them across the line of fighting into the Arab side where they could fight honestly with their Arab allies if they so chose, but attacking Israeli forces in the rear areas were unacceptable. What is seldom mentioned is over the next decade and a half there were almost one-million Jewish refugees forced from their homes across the MENA nations under Arab control who came to Israel. These Jews were absorbed into the Israeli societal fabric as quickly as proved possible and they were never made into permanent refugees. The Arabs placed their brothers and sisters into camps making them permanent refugees and demanded there be a United Nations agency to care for their refugees and no other refugees. That was the beginning of UNRWA and the United Nations being co-opted into the Arab cause.

 

The Nakba even has stages where it became even worse. There was the Six Day War of 1967 in which Israel liberated Gaza from Egypt and the remainder of the Judean Hills, the Shomron from Jordan and captured the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel defended these gains in the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and even crossed the Suez Canal and were heading for Alexandria and Cairo while also coming down out of the Golan Heights and moving on Damascus. This was when the world, the Soviet Union and United States included along with the rest of the permanent members of the Security Council, Britain, France and China, ordered Israel to return to the initial lines from before the Arab attack and Israeli counterattack and defeat of the Arab forces. Here was another example of the United States, Europe, the Soviet Union and China all working to help Israel saving Israel from vicious Arab losses. Israel, apparently, cannot be permitted to gain a definitive victory against her enemies as that apparently is not permitted by the world at large, and the world is large and Israel very small, about the size of New Jersey. So many people seem to believe that Israel is too large and need give away land, large portions of land as they have so much, any more land and they might actually become as large as Vermont or maybe even the Hawaiian Islands.

 

The final chapter of the Nakba has been the fact that no matter what the Arabs have thrown at the Israelis, the Israelis appear mostly unruffled and simply react as needed and go on with being successful. Israeli success has really made many an Arab quite put out and aggravated to the point of steaming hatred. Here is the weird thing, the Israelis have done what they have largely without the assistance of the United States until after 1970 and with the main assistance coming in the initial stages of the Yom Kippur War when Israel was caught unprepared. Much of the Israeli equipment and assets were used up or destroyed early in the fighting and resupply was desperately required. Britain refused and France refused. Czechoslovakia was forbidden by the Soviet Union and Israel had to turn to the United States who had just begun to have friendly relations. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger advised President Nixon to slow walk any resupply and make the Israelis agree to return all lands to the Arab states. Israel and the State Department have had a long history of difficulties and the deep state in the State Department still would like to remove Israel as they see Israel as a problem they just would like to do without. President Nixon listened carefully to his Secretary of State and then called his Secretary of Defense and ordered him to have the resupply to Israel be given his highest priority and to get it accomplished yesterday. Then there did come a logistics problem. The United States was denied permission to land any resupply aircraft in Europe as Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands, Iceland, Greenland and Greece all refused to aid in the resupply of Israel. Europe was set on seeing the Jewish State be annihilated once and for all. One nation permitted the American airlift landing rights, Portugal was willing to help, so aircraft were dispatched to Lajes Field in the Azores Islands. Israel dodged a bullet, actually quite a few bullets. This was the beginning of the deeper friendship between the United States and Israel. Below is a graph depicting total United States aid to Israel by year which makes it quite obvious that Israel and the United States really were not great friends until the early 1970s.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

The root problem and major cause of the Nakba is that Israel exists. If only the world would remove Israel from the map and rid the entire world of its Jews, well, then things would improve in relations between the Arab states and, actually, they would not change one iota. There would still be the Syrian, Libyan, Yemenis, and Iraqi Civil Wars. Iran would still be exporting terrorism except now without Israel it would be targeting Europe and the United States, especially the American military bases in the Middle East and Asia. Iran might even be making inroads into either Saudi Arabia or Turkey if not both. Perhaps Israel really is the cork in the bottle holding the djinn at bay. What was nice is Israel actually finally established her promised borders from the San Remo Conference, Treaty of Sèvres and the Mandate System which spawned the British Mandate (see map below). As you might note, the planned and promised eastern border of Israel is the Jordan River, not the Green Line, not the insane borders from UNGA Res 181 (the one the Arabs refused making it void from that point onward thus killing it for all time). There is a little secret which the world finds impossible to understand, and next we will let you in on it once again.

 

British Mandate as prescribed division between Arab State of Jordan and Jewish State of Israel

British Mandate as prescribed division between Arab State of Jordan and Jewish State of Israel

 

Israel does not have a Nakba Day but has something close, we have our remembrance of the Shoah, the death under the Nazi extermination and work camps of more than six million Jews, more than twelve million people including Roma, Polish, Christian Serbs, Clergy of all faiths, Russians and others of which many were innocents with the slaughter including women and children many of which were just murdered outright. That is the catastrophe we remember and we also mourn the fact that between sixty to eighty million human beings were lost in what was thus far the largest loss of human life in warfare. The next world war, if mankind is so foolish as to fight such a war, will count the dead in hundreds of millions and most will be civilian if the tendency between World War I and World War II continues (see graph below of military deaths to civilian deaths). Now please allow us to end this article being upbeat as a nice change from the above.

 

World War II Surpassed World War I Civilian Deaths Against Military Deaths

World War II Surpassed World War I
Civilian Deaths Against Military Deaths

 

Israel has a dream which it desires deeply. Israelis have this dream which they wish for the world because we are dreamers. Israel would love to have her borders recognized as the Golan Heights, Jordan River, existing borders with Lebanon and Egypt, her border with Gaza and not requiring any blockade in order to check incoming shipments as there would be no threat from Gaza, and peace with all the world including the Arab World. We would be gladdened if Iran would no longer shout “Death to Israel” or death to anyone else. A world at peace is our dream. What Israel would give for having peace on her borders and no threats would be marvelous inventions, discoveries, treatments, cures, agricultural advances; including drought resistant wheat, plants which can use saline water for irrigation, drip irrigation, grasses which can grow in poor quality soil without fertilizer, more new fruits and vegetables like the Galia melon, Orangetti spaghetti squash, pomelit – a grapefruit-pomelo (pummelo) hybrid, Angello first seedless bell pepper, Black Galaxy tomato, Nano Watermelon, Hishtil mini basil tree, Volcani TableSugar acorn squash, and Volcani Anna apple (unlike other apple trees it does not require winter season to thrive). Israel has no desire for more lands, as we will find the means to make what we have serve our needs and those of all whom live and come here legally. Israel also has made some fantastic strides in the technical fields with discoveries and programs which are part and parcel of many people’s lives. Some of the products Israel invented or has contributed to include cell phones, instant messaging, computer security, virus protection for computers, Windows operating system, bionic walking assistance system for paraplegics, robotic guidance system for spine surgery, quasicrystals, discovery of the Aharonov–Bohm effect, Formulation of Black holes Entropy, World’s smallest video camera, Given Imaging, the first Capsule endoscopy, Azilect, a drug for Parkinson’s disease, Copaxone immunomodulator drug for treating multiple sclerosis, a universal lossless data compression algorithm, USB flash drive marketed as the DiskOnKey, Quicktionary Electronic dictionary, Laser Keyboard, GetTaxi, OrCam MyEye, Waze, WeCU, Iron Dome, MUSIC, Super iron battery, and much more. Imagine how much more we could do if we did not have to be on alert and ready for a war on any front with only moment’s worth of notice. We are too busy trying to make the world a better place to worry about past problems, and with four thousand years of history, we have had our share. Don’t worry, we are not about to try listing them at this time.

 

As for how Nakba Day is commemorated by the Arabs in Gaza under the rule of Hamas along with the Arabs in parts of the Shomron under the rule of Palestinian Authority, it does not exactly include parades or other normative celebratory or commemorative events. What their Nakba Day activities include are rioting, destruction, and general mayhem. They attempt to gain entrance to the Temple Mount armed with bricks and Molotov cocktails to hurl at any Jews they may encounter or the security personnel if no Jews are available. In Gaza Hamas has promised that this year they plan to surge through the border fence and murder ever person they come across as thousands of Gazan rampage through southern Israel presumably making their way to Jerusalem. The Arabs under the Palestinian Authority even practiced their tactics for overwhelming any security personnel and possibly attacking Jewish towns and communities within the Shomron and swarming into Jerusalem. Their basic response is violent rioting and attempts to murder Israelis and destroy property, that is their idea of the perfect celebration.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 13, 2018

A New Type Arab-Israeli War is Brewing

 

Everyone who knows anything about the Middle East knows about the Arab-Israeli conflict. There have been a number of wars where initially the Arab powers themselves, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the rest of the Arab League fought against Israel attempting to erase the Jewish State. Recently, we once again related just a few of the prophesies which actually predict the reestablishment of the Jewish State, Israel, in 1948 and how its growth and return to following the ways of Hashem and rebuilding his Temple would be a slow process. The Arabs are intent on proving that Allah is more powerful than Hashem and that Allah will once and for all extinguish Hashem from ever existing in their Middle East. Well, the old alliance which consisted largely of the nations above has finally been pressured by threats within Islam in putting aside their obsession with Israel, at least temporarily. But that is where the new problem comes for Israel. The new threat comes not from a purely Arab nation but from an old foe from deep into the history of the Jewish State, Persia. Yes, you read that right, Persia, known today as the Islamic Aryan State, Iran. They chose to name their country using the Farsi pronunciation of Aryan, Iran, and they are the new nemesis for Israel.

 

So, who will be in this new Iranian alignment against Israel, who claims to be the Islamic power that will inforce the will of Allah and destroy Israel, the Jewish State and remove the influence of Hashem from their Middle East? Iran will be the general using their proxies of Hezballah and Syria along with Lebanon, Iraq and Hamas with a potential inclusion of the Palestinian Authority who will join under their PLO terrorist nom de guerre (see map below). The war has already begun. Oddly enough, it was not anything Israel has done or not done that is pushing things faster towards conflict, it has been President Trump. When President Trump recognized Jerusalem as the eternal capital of Israel and began and soon will dedicate the new American Embassy being opened in Jerusalem, this is what dropped the proverbial gauntlet. President Trump has also placed his confidence and trust behind Israel by respecting their independence as a nation and reminding the world that Israel, as is true of every nation, has the right to defend themselves from all threats by whatever means are required. President Trump through that recognition also implied a promise to block United Nations Security Council condemnation of any legal defensive steps which Israel finds necessary to protect her people and nationhood. For his faith and friendship, Israel worked with the United States being advised and shared with them the treasure trove of records, information and definitive proof of Iranian cheating in all forms breaking their commitments under the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) reached with the P5+1+EU and Iran. The bond between President Trump and the Jewish State is very similar to the bond between the American People, especially those who supported Trump’s campaign, and Israel. There should be one warning for the Jewish State, President Trump will only be President for a fixed period, four years or eight years, the American People will hopefully make that choice, and after him, the possibilities are complex, complicated and nearly endless. Israel believed that they had a friend in President Carter only to later realize the harms he attempted to foist upon Israel such as returning the entirety of Gaza, the Shomron, and the Golan Heights as part of the treaty with Egypt. This almost had Egypt ready to leave the negotiations. Fortunately, Sadat and Begin worked beyond and around President Carter quietly and without causing him political harm allowing them to reach the agreement despite interference. Then we found out that President Carter was not the worst which could be placed into the American Presidency. We could find out that there are even worse surprises and that is one reason for Israel to make do with the opportunities of which she can currently take advantage.

 

Iranian Axis Aligned Against Israel

Iranian Axis Aligned Against Israel

 

The conflict with Iran and her allies and proxies has been being waged for a few years ever since the first war with Hezballah in Lebanon. Since then Hezballah has gone from a terrorist group anchored in Lebanon to the main ruling force in Lebanon and now controls the Lebanese Army and all that entails. The war escalated just the past week as we discussed recently with the Quds Force launching at least twenty rockets at the Israeli forces and citizens stationed and residing within the region of the Golan Heights. Iron Dome intercepted many of the rockets, some fell short in Syria and others struck empty areas. Israel returned attack for attack striking numerous Iranian and Hezballah rocket launchers, stockpiles and other bases within Syria. The largest threat is any Iranian ICBMs tipped with thermonuclear or EMP weapons. Just behind those are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes, capabilities and range of effectiveness held by Hezballah in the Bekaa Valley and Southern Lebanon. These have been placed with Hezballah by Iran to be an existential threat to Israel. One can be assured that Israeli Intelligence knows the placement of the vast majority of those rockets and missiles. Imagine that a nation would arm a terrorist group with sufficient missiles and rockets to annihilate eight and a half million people consisting of over six-million Jews, over one and a half million Muslims, almost two-hundred-thousand Christians, almost one-hundred-fifty-thousand Druze and over three-hundred-fifty-thousand of various other faiths or no faiths plus whatever numbers of tourists. That is the level of evil within the leaders of Iran as well as a measure of their hate for Israel and Jews in general. Additionally, Iran has a similar loathing for the United States and honestly has been planning numerous differing scenarios with which to destroy America and replace them as the world leader. Iran is willing to almost destroy the world and everybody in it if that is what is required for them to be the rulers of the planet and to make Shia Islam the sole religion. They are willing to destroy the rest of Islam, all of Sunni Islam, if they cannot be converted and the same convert or die ultimatum is what Iran desires to impose on the entirety of our world. Their plans span all the time into the future and will not be quenched by anything less than complete victory over everything and everyone. This is how the Ayatollahs interpret Islam and the Quran.

 

Israel is the initial target which Iran aims to destroy first. Their next target would likely be Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Then they would probably set their sights on Jordan and Egypt. Eventually they would target even those who might be their ally for a period such as Turkey. Eventually they would target Europe and move from the MENA states of the Middle East and North Africa and move south across the remainder of the African continent. Iran has a base in South America where the IRGC and other terrorists train and plan future attacks located in the Tri-Border Region along the junction of Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil, where the Iguazú and Paraná rivers converge. From such a base with airstrips, the Iranian conquest of the Americas could be planned and brought to fruition. What the exact order of conquest the Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader of Iran and presumably all of Shia Islam has in mind is beyond our knowledge. We can be fairly sure that Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan and Israel top the list after they finish reestablishing their puppet Bashir al-Assad atop his throne in Syria. The other side of the problem is that should he be called to Allah and the Assembly of Experts then appoints a new Supreme Leader, despite the office presumably enforcing the will of Allah on Earth, the new Supreme Leader just might have a different plan for imposing Shia Islam on the world. The next Supreme Leader might decide not to take on Saudi Arabia, Jordan or the Gulf States as one of the most immediate conquests, but we can assure the world that Israel will still top the list with the United States closely behind. The masses who assemble every Friday afternoon after prayers in the main square of Tehran have worked so hard at perfecting their chants of, “Death to Israel,” “Death to Yahud,” and “Death to America,” that to try and alter their rhythm might prove quite a strain on the public.

 

But not to worry, President Trump has his plan on how to affect change in Iran. According to the New York Times, “President Trump has given full-throated support to the anti-government protesters in Iran.” There are numerous other sources touting this largely as the one nice thing they can say and then advising him that everything he does is wrong. Have to love the mainstream media, always just a few steps off of the straight and narrow and leaning way to the left. Meanwhile, according to Arutz Sheva and Mark Langfan, “Trump and Mattis are carrying out a grand strategy in Syria. Kurds and Arabs have formed a pincer that prevents Iran’s road to the sea and it will soon be apparent that everyone, except Iran, is in favor.” That just might put a kink in their Shiite Crescent (see map below). The only problem with this plan is that Iran could always fly what they require into Damascus International Airport or any other airfield in western Syria. The other question would be how long the Kurds and Arabs in eastern Syria could hold out against Russian air power and al-Assad using barrel bombs and chemical weapons. The thing is that al-Assad does not care about the people, civilian or fighters are all the same to him, targets. As far as the retaliatory strikes by NATO or just the United States and Israel, what does al-Assad care, Iran will resupply him. About the only threat which might have al-Assad worrying is the threat Israel has made to possibly kill al-Assad. Imagine that right now, al-Assad may be counting on President Trump to convince Israel that killing al-Assad would prove unhelpful. We cannot imagine what argument could possibly be made to support that position, but that just may be what al-Assad is currently having to depend. Sometimes life can be so stressful, just imagine having Israel threaten you and depending on President Trump to argue your cause.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

Concluding, Iran is currently the threat in this world and to a large number of nations. The world sits around pretending that the only real problem is Israel when they know that it is Israel standing between them and serious threats. They rely on the fact that Israel is target one for Iran, especially throughout Europe where they have enough problems. The only nation which faces an equal threat from Iran as Israel logistically is Saudi Arabia, as Iran would dearly love to take the oil fields in northeast Saudi Arabia as well as the Red Sea coastal area which include Mecca and Medina. That would be approximately where the star is in the map above, which is almost prophetic in nature as it denoted the jewel in the equation. Should Iran take the oil fields they would gain an incorruptible economy and if they should take Mecca and Medina, they could claim the right as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. This would also remove the justification the Saudi Royal family has used as their fig leaf covering their actions as the title infers great respect and without the title, they might face a revolt. This would also serve Iran well as they might use such an uprising as their invitation to take over all of Saudi Arabia or at least place a leader who is a follower of Shia Islam. Further, causing problems for Saudi Arabia would weaken the position of the United States should Saudi Arabia become unstable. There is one last fly in the ointment, and that is Russia. Currently Russia is being used by Iran to reestablish their hold on Syria and this is making problems for Putin back home as the war drags on and continues to drain their economy. Further, Iran and Russia are not exactly historically allies in any sense of the word. This has mostly to do with the long memories of the Persian People and the wars fought between the Russian Empire and the Persian Empire over the years. Iran actually still holds a grudge which eventually they will act upon, the only question being when. Do not think for a minute that the Russians do not remember these conflicts as they probably do not sit well with many Russians any better than with the Iranians. This would be an entire article for some history buff and will only serve here as our final thought.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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