Beyond the Cusp

August 23, 2021

Taiwan About to Meet the One China Policy

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:02 AM
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Even the media has noticed China threatening Taiwan, flying fighter jets into their airspace as well as other threats. Currently, China and Russia are holding joint military exercises exceeding any former troop, air and naval movements. Russia, like China, has designs on the Ukraine as well as the former Soviet states neighboring Russia. Israel is also feeling some insecurity resulting from the same catastrophic wholesale retreat by United States forces from all of Afghanistan with the exception of the Hamid Karzai International Airport, leaving chaos and Taliban forces in their wake. For once being in Israel makes one feel more secure than so many other people facing even greater threats. Of all the threats on the horizon, Taiwan has the privilege of being the closest. Mainland China (Communist China we’re old school) has placed articles equating the American betrayal (the Commies said that) of Afghanistan with the presumed coming betrayal of Taiwan when the unification comes, implying its imminence.

China and Taiwan

There are two opposing forces within the government establishment, one centered around the military and the other centered on the State Department. The military wants to hold onto the promises given Taiwan from so far back it was called Formosa. Back so far, it was a promise made before I was born. It was the result of the Communist revolution in China forcing the capitalist and democratic government to flee to the Island of Formosa where the United States promised to protect them from Mainland China. Back then even the State Department was on board as the leader of the Free World. This was the status-quo until that fateful date, February 21 to 28, 1972, when President Richard Nixon traveled to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, China.

Resulting from the Nixon-China visit was the One China Policy which resulted in Mainland China being the sole recognized nation and Taiwan was but a wayward province which would be welcomed home sometime in the future. No longer would the Portuguese name Formosa be used and it was to be Taiwan, the Chinese name for the island province. The promise to defend the democratically elected government island nation, whether you wish to call it Formosa or Taiwan, was not voided as far as many in the military will argue; but the State Department went with Nixon and the One China Policy hook, line and sinker. They will argue that the absorption of Taiwan into Mainland China is inevitable and should be permitted to occur naturally. Mainland China is of the opinion that this inevitability should occur imminently rather than some more distant eventuality. After witnessing the complete collapse of the American forces’ mastery and control of Afghanistan, President Xi Jinping of China has to be feeling emboldened by what he has witnessed, as have all the other expansionist powers (Russia, China, Iran). Russia has a region which they believe are breakaway provinces, not actual nations. Iran desires solidifying their control of the Iraqi Shiite government and the rebel forces in Yemen, reestablishing their control of Syria, and cementing control of Lebanon while also arming Hamas in Gaza; all in order to threaten Israel and Saudi Arabia. How fast the other so-called bad actors will surface requiring some response is debatable. Their existence is, unfortunately, all too real. But we believe the initial tripwire will be the absorption of Taiwan as a province of Mainland China. What we fear is the reclamation of Taiwan will be far more difficult and violent than the ongoing pacification of Hong Kong. Further designs held by President Xi Jinping of China mostly in the Pacific will have to wait for a later article.

Beyond the Cusp

December 16, 2019

British Choose Conservative Party While People Riot in Iran

 

The British elections led to a victory and mandate to complete BREXIT with Boris Johnson as their Prime Minister. But there was a secondary message coming from these elections, namely that the British renounced the hateful racism and anti-Semitism which had become part of the messages coming from the Labour Party in general and from Jeremy Corbyn in particular. The British elections were just the next step coming from Europeans demanding their nations return to their independence and away from the European Union (EU) and centralized rule from Brussels. We have to add that most of the distrust of the centralized power without any input, that the EU intends to spread over all of Europe, has come from former Soviet nations which perhaps remember their former results from centralized power ruling from Moscow.

 

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

 

These results will be used by some in the United States to boost their arguments about President Trump, both pro and con. These sorts of arguments are best just left behind as one walks away, as arguing with such people from either side, using the British elections as a predictor for the upcoming 2020 elections in the United States is simply a waste of one’s time. Yet, the results of the British elections will not be affecting much on the world’s stage as the central focus of the world revolves around two nations, the obvious is Iran followed by the favorite nation for United Nations General Assembly to condemn, Israel. Of these two, Iran is the larger problem which the world needs to find something to remove the current Judeophobia, prevent Iranian hegemony of the Middle East and, in a perfect world, return control over Iran to the Iranian people. These problems are far more important keeping a careful watch over Iran and the effects of her involvement in the Syrian strife and violence as well as her influences in places such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. Currently, the ball is on the Iranian side of the court leaving more room for speculation backed only by feelings. So, what do we expect in the coming future?

 

News about the internal struggle spreading throughout Iran has been sketchy at best and totally suppressed about the remainder. Meanwhile, the people of Iran are fighting for new governance which is more representative of the Iranian people. There is a large and growing undercurrent eroding at the power wielded by the Mullahs currently ruling in Iran through use of force. The situation in Iran is exactly as one might presume, with fixed elections and other shams giving a pretense of democratic elections. This is what has led to the current round of rioting and protests against the current rulers. News about the spreading protests has been relatively disorganized at best and imposed silence at its worst. This leads to much news being pure speculation mixed with hope for the Iranian people.

 

Our biggest fears are that this atmosphere of rejection targeting the ruling Mullahs could lead to an irresponsible set of actions by the Mullahs. The most feared scenario includes a nuclear attack on the American Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy assigned to patrol the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean as well as the nations bordering these waters. Their mandate includes Iran. Often another scenario is mentioned where Iran starts their offensive in earnest against Saudi Arabia while simultaneously launching a massive attack upon Israel used to distract the world’s attention. Such an attack would be played in Iran as their leadership taking care to protect the people from these outside menacing forces. We do not foresee Iran using force against Israel beyond the consistent launching rockets by the IRGC in Syria as any escalation could trigger a larger Israeli response. Iranian leaders are aware that Israeli leadership would be required to respond to missiles detected coming from Iran well before they would strike their targets and possibly crippling Israeli capabilities. Israeli leadership would need to decide how severe any Iranian attack might be as well as which warheads were launched, specifically as to whether any WMD’s were included in such an attack. Such weapons include chemical and bio weapons as well as nuclear warheads. Any such attack from Iran would be hopefully largely, if not totally, intercepted by the layered protective spheres of the Israeli anti-ballistic missile defenses.

 

Talking about any Iranian strike, our belief is that Iran has absolutely little if any desire to exchange ballistic missiles with Israel as they are aware that such an exchange would result in the destruction of much of Iran with potentially minimal destruction in Israel as Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli defensive systems. Should Iran strike anyone, the most likely target would be the American naval ships off her coasts. Iran has been observing how President Trump has pulled American forces from much, if not all, of the Middle East battlegrounds. This has probably led to their concluding that President Trump would avoid any direct conflict initiated by Iran. They likely feel that such an attack could lead to concessions from the United States in order to avoid further American casualties. Such presumptions are the perfect setting for an ever-escalating exchange between Iran and the United States where Iran would be the loser. The United States would not consider herself as the victor as the resulting protests against the use of force and against Trump would prove to be a divisive and destructive force in the country.

 

This leads to our final vision of the future and the results of the people rioting across Iran demanding new governance and an end to the rule by the Mullahs. We fear that the results from these protests will be the deaths of thousands of Iranians as the Mullahs will refuse to go down without a monumental fight. In the end, the rulers of Iran will unleash the IRGC and the Basenji Militias upon the protesters. It will result in a near exact copy of the 2009 protests except with far higher casualty count for those protesting. Should the pro-democracy Persians, the actual and correct name for most of the Iranian people, start taking to the streets in vast numbers, their success or failure will be dependent upon what response and potential arming the Iranians receive from the United States. The knife edge upon which the world currently sits has Iran and the United States in direct opposition to one another. Iran could initiate problems in any number of means. Iran could stop all the oil tankers from entering or leaving through the Strait of Hormuz or block the Bab el Mandeb (see map below) blocking the only exit and entrance to the Suez Canal from the south.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Bab el Mandeb blockade would also negate the sole Israeli port in the south, Eilat, from access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Preventing access to shipping lanes is considered an act of war. Well, that is, except if the nation in question is Israel. That aside, the most likely conflict will break out between the United States and Iran and not Iran and Israel. Should the conflict turn to being between Iran and Israel, the world (aka General Assembly) will immediately blame Israel with minimum opposition. This is the one item you can bet and rest assured of a win. The world’s ‘blame Israel’ reaction is the one constant in this rattled and violent world. Directing hatred towards Israel is the latest Judeophobia spreading around the world. We can only pray that the world awakens and removes their blinders and finally accepts that Israel has been reborn as predicted in Torah and related commentaries and this time, we are returning home and have little if any desire to leave. Hopefully, the world comes to grips with their unsupportable Judeophobia before it leads to another great war which will result in much of the world being destroyed and a death toll beyond any other war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 29, 2019

Democrat Party Opposes Israel Again

 

There were more statements by Democrat Party Presidential hopefuls stating that aid to Israel should be used to force Israel to surrender more lands to the Arabs. They are falsely claiming that “official United States policy” supports the two-state solution. The actual official position for the United States is fully defined under the The Anglo American Treaty of 1924 in which the United States joined the rest of the allies of World War I in support for the Mandate System and the Balfour Declaration including the provisions from the San Remo Conference. All of these paint a very simple picture, under international law, Israel has the rightful possession and ownership of all the lands west of the Jordan River stretching to the Mediterranean Sea. That includes the regions of Judea and Samaria or the Shomron or West Bank, no matter what you choose to call these regions, it all still belongs to Israel and that is the official United States policy under treaty. But why should we expect any historic knowledge to have any influence when the popular leftist belief is Israel is pure evil and should be punished simply for attempting to exist and have relative safety. We have spoken of this before and expect the position on Israel with the Democrat Party to simply continue to slide to an ever harder and rash position as time progresses.

 

Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren

Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren

 

There are those who have proclaimed that supporting Israel has become a partisan issue with the Democrat Party taking a strict line supporting the Arab Palestinian demands and insist that Israel is the obstacle to peace while the Republican Party has pledged to support Israel completely without regard for the propriety of their actions. Knowledgeable Zionists paying attention would probably give a less optimistic view of the United States. They would likely agree on the view given describing the positions of the Democrat Party but partially missed the reality about the Republican Party. Many of the old guard elite and the alt-right are completely opposed to even the idea of a Jewish State believing the founding of Israel was a grievous mistake of judgement and point to all the difficulties as their proof. What is true is that, despite the accusations of his being anti-Semitic, President Trump is a strong supporter of Israel which has been proven by his actions including recognizing Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel and Israeli ownership of the Golan Heights. President Trump’s “Deal of the Century” has still to be released and that will be the final exam on how far he will back Israel. The rumors have run the gauntlet from it all belongs to Israel to some form of the two-state solution. Of course, anything short of it all belongs to Israel falls short of international law and obligations as written in existing treaties. This reality will become completely evident when the problem is adjudicated on the stage of the World Courts in Geneva. Just to place a cherry on top, Article 80 of the United Nations Charter also places the power of the United Nations in support of the Mandate Systems as defined by the League of Nations.

 

All of this is not something which should come as much of a surprise to most people. All one need do is read just a little about the atmosphere at virtually any of the top and largest colleges and universities and their progressive articulation of every problem in the world. The propensity of these campuses is to hold BDS conventions, Palestinian Solidarity Weeks and a plethora of other anti-Israel demonstrations and events. Add to this that their teachers often hold hard leftist positions which leads to their lessons slanting against Israel seeking to meet the demands of heavy Islamic pressures which come with their donations and founding of Middle East departments with the professors all meeting the criteria set by the donors. AOC along with Tlaib and Omar are the new Democrat norm along with Sarsour and almost all, if not all, of the Democrat hopefuls for President in the upcoming 2020 elections in America. This slides towards ending the good relations between the United States and Israel. The State Department has opposed Israel since her inception. The Defense Department has supported Israel as their testing grounds of their equipment in actual combat. This has led to some crucial adjustments to military hardware which were overlooked during their design. Fortunately, as pointed out in the article linked above, Israel is no longer dependent upon aid from the United States which now does more for providing sales for the American defense industries. If necessary, Israel could resume producing their own aircraft, the first since the Lavi fighter which was the initiating factor to the Israel-American military cooperation.

 

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

 

Dependent upon which party takes control of the White House and Congress in the 2020 elections will be whether the United States will continue their friendly relations with the Jewish State of Israel. The reality is that politics is heading away from Israel and eventually rejecting everything related to the Judeo-Christian ethics. This shift in the politics of the entirety of the Western World will inevitably lead to their complete break with Israel blaming Israel for being the originating force behind the Judeo-Christian ethics and continuing to believe in the core beliefs which would become the eventual basis for Western society. The newest view is that Western civilization spawned all the world’s evils despite being the driving force which has eradicated the vast majority of slavery and numerous other evils. But the new view of the social sciences is behind much of this as it rejects any goodness resulting from Western civilization. Should everything reach what is the obvious end of these teachings and philosophy, Israel may end up as the last bastion of Western Judeo-Christian ethics. What will be unfortunate of such an eventuality is that Israel may not find any allies to stand with her and, if fortunate, will find at least a few nations who will not stand against her. Europe may already be on the verge of becoming lost as far as Western and Judeo-Christian society being at its core and replacing it with Sharia and the United States along with the remainder of the Western world might not be all that far behind. The Democrat Presidential hopefuls, some of the new members of Congress and the long-standing anti-Israel position taken by the Congressional Black Caucus all indicate the continuing movement which will lead to Israel being rejected by United States political leadership. Currently, such would be largely a part of the Democrat Party, but this does not excuse Republican Party which will probably follow along behind the current trends. Prophesy expected there to come a time when Israel would be forced to stand alone. This has never looked more possible than when watching the current political rhetoric.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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