Beyond the Cusp

June 19, 2019

The Threat for a Nuclear War

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:58 AM
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You mention that there is the possibility that the next large conflict could include nuclear weapons and most people just give a half-hearted chuckle and walk away leaving you standing wondering if it was what you said. Well, it was what you said and nobody wants to even consider such a terrible set of events. Those who do engage in such a conversation point out that the efforts for nonproliferation will prevent any such unwanted eventualities. They refuse the argument that every weapon mankind has ever invented were used in the next big war or in the war currently raging. Gunpowder, catapults, trebuchets, ballistae, crossbows, long bows, mines, rockets, nerve gas, other chemical agents, tear gas, aircraft and virtually every other form of weapon has been used. Currently in Israel, Hamas has taken to using such innocent items as kites and helium balloons to carry incendiary devices which are burning fields, forests, wilderness preserves, towns and anything else they land near. They have also attached exploding toys and brightly packaged candies laced with poison. Mentioning that such is simply another example of weaponizing everything and when it comes to nuclear bombs, well, they are already weaponized. The nonproliferation argument also runs into difficulty as if were not for proliferation of nuclear weapons, only the United States and Russia with perhaps china would have nuclear weapons. But many other nations have developed and stockpiled nuclear weapons and others are on the verge and thus far only South Africa has gone from being a nuclear power to destroying their arsenal and becoming a nonnuclear nation with no nuclear weapons program that is known.

 

So, why our concern over nuclear weapons and their use? Well, the nations involved directly in the fighting in World War II were all given a small introduction to the horrors which nuclear weapons cause with the bombings of Hiroshima (image below) and Nagasaki. The devastation was probably no worse than the firebombing of Dresden, Tokyo and other cities. The human toll was not completely understood until much later as the side effects from high doses of radiation became evident over time. The world even agreed at the United Nations to work to prevent such weapons from ever being used again. The record of the United Nations in often causing the exact actions which they were initially attempting to prevent. UNIFIL monitoring Lebanon presumably to prevent Hezballah from rearming the border with Israel is a perfect example. Currently, Hezballah is estimated to have over one-hundred-thousand rockets and guided missiles ready to be used against Israel. Most of these are located south of the Litany River, the region that UNIFIL was to keep weapon free, and we have not even gone into the tunnel and bunker systems Hezballah has built crisscrossing the entire region. So, we would not put much faith in the United Nations preventing proliferation and, even after that, preventing a nuclear exchange leading into a cascade of unpleasant consequences. This brings us back to the fact that every weapon and weapon system ever devised by man became one of the crucial weapons in a later conflict, and usually in a conflict which snowballed into a far larger conflagration than the start ever envisioned.

 

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

 

We have pointed out that Iran more than likely already has a stock of nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles (chart below) with which to deliver them virtually anywhere on earth. Add on North Korea and there are two nations who could be prime candidates for initiating such a conflict. This has been further evidenced in the frightening commentary made by Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani as part of his Quds Day Speech of Friday, December 14, 2001.


If one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists’ strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality. Of course, you can see that the Americans have kept their eyes peeled and they are carefully looking for even the slightest hint that technological advances are being made by an independent Islamic country. If an independent Islamic country is thinking about acquiring other kinds of weaponry, then they will do their utmost to prevent it from acquiring them. Well, that is something that almost the entire world is discussing right now.

 

This is one of the overlooked items when Rafsanjani is touted as a moderate Iranian leader who is a man of peaceful intentions. Sooner or later, we hope sooner, the media and political climate of the developed Western World will start to understand the meaning of Taqiya and realize that, all too often, some of these leaders are simply not telling them the truth. This also likely applies to the Iranian claim not to possess any nuclear weapons.

 

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

There are already two nuclear powers which face one another across the thin armistice line separating them in the Kashmir region. These are India and Pakistan and these two have had a very violent history starting from the outset when Pakistan was separated from India and tens of millions of people desired or found it necessary to relocate in order to be in a place where they were assured of survival. During the dual exodus, numerous instances of violence were exchanged by the two groups over the weeks it took for the exchange to be completed. India and Pakistan have had several conflicts and almost had a war break out within the past few years. Both nations are known to have nuclear weapons and one can only wonder how these will be kept from being utilized in some future conflict between these two adversaries. Add in the probable existence of nuclear warheads in Iranian hands and their enmity towards Israel as well as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States and any other nation not ruled by Shia Islam. These are all instances where such weapons could be used and should Iran simply fire missiles towards Israel, the Israelis would have very little time to decide, first, if they could with total assuredness intercept all the missiles (possible but unlikely depending on the numbers), secondly, whether the missiles were topped with WMDs (whether nuclear, chemical or biological is irrelevant) and finally, would Israel respond in kind and use nuclear weapons in their response to such an attack. The next question would be whether or not Israel has the ability to destroy her own ballistic missiles should the Iranian attack not contain any WMD materials. The United States would also face a difficult decision should Iran utilize WMD’s, specifically nuclear weapons, against Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States or anybody else who the United States is obligated to defend by treaty or other arrangement. In all honesty, in Israel we not only prefer not to have the United States use any of her military in the defense of Israel, as we wish to depend as totally on our own abilities and not risk other nation’s people including service members.

 

The next argument often heard in such conversations is that the human race has moved beyond using weapons which cause such horrific results and cause such damage. How people can still hold on to such a concept after Saddam Hussein using chemical weapons on his own Kurdish citizens, Bashir al-Assad using chemical weapons and barrel bombs on areas known to have a large concentration of civilians and finally the horror show that was the Islamic State should have convinced people that barbarism is still with us. We could add in Rwanda, Ethiopia under Idi Amin, South Africa and numerous other instances and even prolonged inhumanity which were permitted in this presumably modern world. The truth is that the human race has not moved past the tribal society outlook where anyone outside the ruling tribe is considered a non-entity, a non-person, something totally without worth or concern. Yes, Europe has finally started to figure things out and have become so passive that their societies are crumbling due to low population figures which are far below replacement rates. The United States and Canada would also be in this state if it was not for some subsectors of their populations still reproducing at far larger rates making up for the lower rates amongst much of the population. Israel is comfortably above the replacement rate for which we are very happy. The one item which has been seen to correlate with the lack of sufficient reproductive rates is the secular and anti-religion populations which have adopted the far left and ecologic view that the ‘earth is being murdered by people’ religion. These are the same people who also believe that the United Nations is doing a swell job of keeping the peace and firmly believe that large wars and the use of WMDs is in our past never to arise again. These are the people who suffer from a Pollyannaish outlook that no matter what distressing news they read or are told respond with something totally irresponsible such as, but it is such a nice day, isn’t it? They will do anything to change such a conversation as they refuse to admit that things could even become horrific.

 

Does anyone honestly believe that nowhere in the world there exists a potential leader who would use nuclear weapons? If so, why? We have witnessed chemical weapons, nerve gas, barrel bombs, suicide bombers, passenger aircraft filled with people used as building torpedoes, vehicles driven into crowds, terrorism of various varieties and attacks made on places of worship during services to maximize the carnage. How none of these register with so many people is amazing and frightening. These are often the people voting for governments who might actually have to face such difficulties, and the rest are hoping they choose well. With what we have witnessed and some of the bluster coming from often unelected rulers, it would appear that believing that there is little if any chance of a nuclear exchange or a one-sided use of nuclear weapons would appear foolish. There is no real difference between using a nuclear weapon and the use of other WMDs, especially biological agents which do not respect borders. For those shaking their heads at the use of biologic agents, do we have to remind the world of the anthrax attacks, many being faked but there were quite a number which proved to be real. What if instead of anthrax they had access to use a mutant form of plague combined with the flu such that it had a two week or months long incubation of certain viruses and no known treatment while being completely resistant to antibiotics as viruses often are. Such a biologic agent would spread far and wide before the initial victims ever showed symptoms which would be the initial stage of any sort of warning. There are numerous nations who still have very active biological warfare research facilities making what would probably be our worst nightmare were they to ever be unleashed upon the world. With some actually having and potentially intending to use such weapons, why would anybody believe such people would bat an eye at the use of nuclear weapons being used if they were in control of such weaponry. The probability that there will be a nuclear exchange somewhere on earth within the next decade is, in our estimation, probably between one in ten to almost even odds.

 

The real question will be whether or not the nation initially attacked or any of their allies have such weapons and will use them in a response. Were one nation to utilize nuclear weapons against an enemy, it is possible that the victim would decide to take the strike and hope for the best responding with normal ordinance and not resort to using nuclear weapons in their actions. The odds of such is rather low as there are bound to be some anger issues involved in the decision-making process and the ability to resist going nuclear would be a very difficult idea to swallow. This is where the problem comes into play. Let us say that there is some overly aggressive nation’s leader who drank way too many espresso coffees and decided to launch three or four nuclear tipped missiles at an enemy nations fifteen-hundred miles distant. The struck nation returns the favor using ten to twelve of their nuclear weapons. The initiating country, in the fog of events and war, claims that the nation they initiated the attack upon had done something which caused the attack such as attempted an assassination and they make this plea to their allies who now join in a larger nuclear attack of the initial victim. The newly attacked nation knows nothing of any attempted assassination and only knows that they have been struck by missiles and several WMDs from now four or five nations, so they call on their allies, that is how these things work, right? By the time everything is straightened out, half the world is missing a large number of its citizens and their infrastructure is mostly destroyed. This is not an absurd scenario any more than some terrorist in the Balkans shooting some relatively unimportant but favored Archduke and his wife could launch the main powers of the day to wage a war to end all wars. As has been stated often enough, wars have been initiated by lesser acts. The world will have a war where one of the main weapons used fairly early in the conflict will be nuclear weapons, and most likely thermonuclear devices which can destroy even most modern metropolises. It is entirely possible that Iran might test Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s that, “the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything.” Israel may only be the size of New Jersey or half the size of Estonia, but that is still beyond the area of devastation which nuclear weapons are theoretically capable of causing immediate destruction. Granted, were such a weapon dropped centrally on the Tel Aviv metropolitan region, that would potentially murder close to half the Israeli population, but the nation would likely still be viable with most of the regular military remaining intact. How Israel would respond would be completely dependent upon who would be the Prime Minister and the members of the Knesset. The bravado that such an attack upon Israel would immediately result in the decimation of Iran is likely just that, bravado for the consumption and responses of the media and people.

 

The other item is that Israel would not have any real desire to cause such upon the people of Iran who actually have little say in who rules their nation and choosing those entrusted with such decisions. Yes, we realize that Iran holds elections for their legislature and President. We also know that only candidates approved by the Guardian Council are permitted to be on the ballot and they do not have anything such as a write-in candidate. Whomever the Guardian Council decides is eligible to run for the parliament and for President are permitted to be on the ballot and all the rest, well, not so much. There are many who believe, including a sizable amount of the citizenry of Iran, that the nation utilizes the Joseph Stalin philosophy for vote tabulating in that it is not so much who votes that counts as who counts the votes that matters. This was evidenced in 2009 with the people contesting the reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Green uprising. We also were made aware and realized exactly how brutal the ruling elite in Iran could be with how they handled the protests and the levels of violence dealt to the demonstrators. This was a peek inside the Iranian leadership and their concept that they are the law and operate above the law. They also provided proving evidence of their general lack of concern for human life. This is a combination which could prove to be the exact dangerous groups with power to initiate a war with nuclear tipped ballistic missiles, with the remaining question merely being against whom.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 14, 2019

British Jews Awakening as American Jews Remain Asleep

 

First thing we need to recognize is that the problem with anti-Semitic members both in the general membership as well as elected to positions of power and to Parliament is far more pronounced in the British Labour Party than it has risen to amongst the Democrat Party in the United States. Still, between Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, amongst other Representatives within the Democrat Party, the Democrats have had ample opportunity to stand against the rising anti-Semitism, especially as it has reared its ugly head within their ranks. Just as the Labour Party who ignored their early warning signs until it became too great a problem for the party to excise, the Democrats are doing all they are able to whitewash the cases of anti-Semitism with general denunciations of hatred. The Democrats Party even passed on demoting their freshman Representative who has made the strongest and most of anti-Semitic tropes and references from her seat in the Foreign Affairs Committee, one of the most prestigious and important postings which one can be given, and given her either a lesser committee appointment or no committee appointment, probably not that unusual for a freshman Representative. But Speaker of the House Pelosi and the rest of the leading Democrats could not even see their way clear to perform that simply task. Just as is becoming apparent in Britain, the United States is also experiencing rising anti-Semitism both within the public and in the halls of power. The anti-Israel and thus anti-Semitic pronouncements and positions taken by the Black Congressional Caucus, often from behind closed doors, have until now been mostly ignored and treated as an annoyance as this was not a threat which would sway legislation and was kept quiet by the media’s choosing not to report upon such. With Ms. Omar, Ms. Tlaib and affirmations made by Ms. Cortez made openly, even before the cameras of the media and on talk shows, their anti-Semitic remarks and references were not covered up nor hidden from the public view just as if they desired to be noted for their positions and were quite proud of their anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic positions and desired to let the world know. We hope that these three continue to find the limelight and pronounce their ugly hatreds such that the American public can witness their repulsive and abhorrent anti-Semitic feelings.

 

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

 

The main question is where will this lead for the British, Americans and also most of Europe where such problems are becoming an epidemic. In France there was the problem with outright and obvious anti-Semitic undercurrent behind the Yellow Vests Protests. Much of Europe has been suffering from anti-Israel positions largely through their refusal to condemn and vote against anti-Israel denunciation in the United Nations General Assembly and within the numerous positions held by them within the various United Nations agencies, specifically the Human Rights Commission, UNESCO and numerous others. This should have been expected of the Europeans after the findings that many of the anti-Israel and pro-BDS NGO’s which operate within Israel working against the sitting government (when there is one) and against the feelings and positions of the general public were being funded by the European Union and numerous European governments receiving well over half of their funding from those sources and very little from within Israel. Furthermore, every time Israel attempted to pass laws very similar to those used by Europeans and most of the rest of the world, which would only permit NGO’s to register as Israel providing they received the majority of their funding from Israelis, their native peoples, the European Union and most European government and politicians all would wail and moan about how Israel was destroying democracy and must permit these foreign funded NGO’s continue to be licensed by and call themselves Israeli. No other developed nation allows such ridiculous permission for NGO’s who are acting as a fifth front against the government and the people to remain as domestically accredited. Now we will need to be concerned within a few years when the United States joins the chorus financing further anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic positions which will claim to speak for the Israelis as they receive validation from the government simply because any NGO can present themselves and be validated as Israeli laws concerning NGO’s are very few and not very restrictive. This is not democracy but its evil twin separated at birth and is actually the exact opposite when NGO’s, which are unable to receive funding within Israel, can receive the majority of their funding from entities which desire to harm Israel and remain Israeli.

 

There are many people both in Israel and across America, who believe and say with complete forthright honesty, claiming that the United States and Israel have always been and will always be allied and friendly. These are people with little grasp of reality or history as the United States and Israel have not always been allies or friends or even on the same side. Granted, President Harry Truman went against the advice of his Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense and the vast majority of his advisors plus the others around him and recognized Israel when she declared her independence, though it took the Congress a number of months to be convinced to validate the President’s move. Still, immediately after this when the six Arab armies with other allies invaded Israel with genocidal intents, the United States placed an arms embargo on all countries involved in this conflict. If not for Czechoslovakia, Israel might never have received sufficient support of arms required to at least retain much of her lands losing Gaza and the Shomron (West Bank, parts of Judea and Samaria) with the former held by Egypt and the latter taken by Jordan. It was not until the Six Day War in 1967 that these regions were liberated by Israel and, were Israel to be treated as a normal nation, should have been readmitted into Israel with the Arabs residing within given the opportunity to register as legal resident aliens or leaving what was liberated Israeli territories. Similar such events have occurred around the world and especially in Europe as the lines between nations were traded back and forth from the numerous European and other conflicts where, as part of many of these redrawing of lines back to previous location returning lands to one nation or another, often the residing peoples were forced to return within the new boundaries of their country and not permitted to remain and join the new ruling nation. But things are never that easy when it comes to Israel. Much of the problem is that the world has this insatiable appetite for oil, the main product of the central Arab powers, well, that and sand, which they employ to twist and force many a national opinion when it comes to the Jewish State.

 

These Arab nations, as a result of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military as well as to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations. This caused people in the United States to have gasoline rationed with often odd-even day restriction on license plates determining who could buy gasoline with some stations limiting the amount any single driver was permitted to buy and many stations running out of gasoline by noon each day. There were gas lines and people would rise a couple of hours early just to buy fuel and still make it to work close to on time. This also led the Arab oil producing nations and their allies around the world to limit production to force prices higher raking in millions of dollars, pounds, francs, marks and other currencies and greatly increasing their leverage over Europe and other parts of the developing world. This influence has contributed greatly to the anti-Israel animosity worldwide. This resupply by the United States during the 1973 Yom Kippur War was actually the first major arms delivery by the United States which would also go on to make Israel a deal she unfortunately, at that time , could not resist to provide F-16s and additional F-15s to Israel in exchange for Israel not placing the Lavi fighter Jet into production. The Lavi would have been a direct contender with the F-16 for world fighter sales, so this decision by the United States was anything but altruistic. The deal included the United States assuring Israel of air superiority in exchange for Israel not producing aircraft which would directly compete with the American markets in fighter jets. With the recent delivery of the F-35 JSF to Israel, one would be led to believe that the United States has remained honest in their agreement. There have been announcements that the United States will be selling F-35 JSF to United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia as well as potentially Egypt and their being sold to Turkey currently being held up, but likely to be made in the near future depending on the White House and President Trump resisting the pressures from the Defense Department and State Department to provide Turkey with the new aircraft. This could lead to Israeli adversaries and potential adversaries (and traditional adversaries) being provided with the F-35 JSF such that in a future engagement Israel would be facing as much as three to one odds against her in placing these planes into the air. This was also possible to a more limited extent with the F-15 and F-16. Perhaps it is time for Israel to return to the fighter aircraft market and produce her own next generation fighters.

 

Those claiming that Israel need never worry about her relations and military aid from the United States is overly optimistic. Granted, the United States military receives much data and suggestions for improvements on their military hardware used by Israel and the two nations have cooperated in numerous projects mostly in the anti-missile systems development. Such cooperation could be quickly curtailed with a change in who is President of the United States. We saw somewhat of a breakdown in the normal order of relations between Israel and the United States while President Obama was in the White House which was accentuated with the drafting and permitting the passing by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 which was intended to prevent Israel from ever annexing the lands which were promised her through the San Remo Conference, the British Mandate and the initial White Paper. This was partially undone by President Trump with his recognition of Jerusalem as the Capital City of the Jewish State, which he stated was not anything as monumental as it was a simple recognition of history and truth. As many Americans will attest, President Trump will not be President forever, though for many it already feels that way.

 

The rising anti-Semitism which had struck the British Labour Party at every level, is rampant across Europe and is now becoming evident within the halls of Congress and will eventually threaten every high office in the land and should strike a terrifying chord amongst the Diaspora of Judaism as it portends their having to leave their comfortable existence as it may not remain so comfortable. Many will refuse to admit to their being a problem claiming that these small events are but anomalies and nothing to get all worked up over. They apparently have forgotten all the adages such as, “From the little acorn mighty oaks do grow.” The soil the world over had been prepared by numerous decades of growing anti-Israel protests, escapades within the United Nations structures and propaganda financed by the Arab oil conglomerates all of which have simply further and further infected the world preparing it for yet another round against the Jews as well as Israel. Make no mistake that once a nation begins to work against Israel, the follow-on rise in anti-Semitism will not be long in coming. It is next to impossible for a passive person with little care one way or the other over Israel to be swayed into the position that it is all because of the Jews and these Jews and their Israel are causing all the worldly problems when such is repeated ad nauseum in the news, in protests and now in the halls of Congress. This is how the start of anti-Israel and eventual anti-Semitism following in any nation and apparently around the world. The very beginnings are evidenced in these interactive maps, ADL in 2014 with access to a 2015 update on worldwide anti-Semitism. There have been numerous studies performed which depict the rise in anti-Semitism. We would like to present an idea for some enterprising people with the proper equipment and funds to track world wide anti-Semitism and the way it followed anti-Israel and anti-Zionist political tracks by NGOs and eventually governments. The link between these two types of hatred need be measured while knowing the result of the anti-Israel and anti-Zionist animosity is anti-Semitism and all to which that inevitably leads. Hatred of Israel and the Jews is nothing new in the world and there is a long history of the results of such inflammations of hatred from throughout history and it has never ended well for those who first began to persecute and hate the Jews.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 10, 2019

Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?

 

We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.

 

So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.

 

Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.

 

Little Boy Gun Type Atomic Bomb

 

The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.

 

 

We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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