Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?

 

We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.

 

So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.

 

Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.

 

 

The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.

 

 

We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Preview of Middle East Coming Attractions

 

We open our fictional projection somewhere in the not too distant future with the Mullahs in Iran officially announcing their entrance into the nuclear age and as a full-fledged member of atomic weapons club. They went further with actions to showcase their accomplishments with two detonations. The first detonation was a test in a deep bunkered test facility which they had dug in the southwestern desert region which measures approximately twenty-five kilo-tons. Reactions referred to this blast as being a Hiroshima type atomic weapon and minimized the threat. This reaction was corrected early the next morning when an above ground test was conducted where the Iranians has launched a missile from eastern Iran towards northern Syria near the border with Turkey. This missile struck its target, a Kurdish strongpoint where they were dug in against the Turkish forces. This weapon was a thermonuclear device and was approximated to have been in the twenty to twenty-five megaton yield and was sufficient to complete obliterate the small Kurdish stronghold and the entirety of the city. This has drawn responses from the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) filled with ire blaming President Trump for the failure of the agreement solely because he pulled the United States support for the deal. The French, German, British, European Union and United Nations all condemned these events laying all the blame at the front door of the White House in Washington D.C.

 

The new American President, sworn in just hours before these tests were carried out, stood steadfast that the United States was not in approval of the Iranian use of a nuclear device against the Kurdish population and the resultant killing of tens of thousands of civilians. The Iranian Supreme Leader blamed their need to use the weapon on the United States arming the Kurdish forces leading to the stand-off in northern Syria. Also, in reaction to these events, Israel has mobilized half of the IDF reservists and placed the military on an emergency stand-by mode where all reserves are required to carry a phone or be near to a phone with which they could receive any call-ups which may be deemed necessary. The Israeli Knesset called an emergency meeting for this afternoon and the Prime Minister’s emergency cabinet is meeting this morning. The newly crowned King of Saudi Arabia announced his nation’s intention to process uranium and build nuclear weapons as a response to the Iranian threat. Pakistan announced that they had already honored their commitment to Saudi Arabia which they made when the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear research and production of their atomic weapons they felt the need to produce in response to India going nuclear. Informed sources tell that Pakistan released six planes which have already landed in three separate Saudi Air Bases each craft carrying two compatible warheads which will fit atop the existing Saudi missiles. Each of the Pakistani devices can be programmed to produce yields from ten to twenty-five megatons. These weapons are being considered a gift from Pakistan and they claim they are now paid in full to the Saudis.

 

The above is a fabrication of what the Middle East could soon have as its appearance. The major situation at that point would be an Iranian-Saudi exchange with Iran figuring their losses would be minimal compared to waiting and having the Saudi produce hundreds of weapons. Nobody would know exactly how many warheads the Iranians would have produced because of the fact that Iran has uranium mines with which to provide their own raw materials for nuclear warhead production (see map below). Iran also has the reactors from which they can produce additional types of weapons fuels. The problem is it is also such a scenario which could become reality next year, next month, next week, later today. This is the reality with which we live with the exception of the Iranians testing their weapon themselves. The Iranian scientists and engineers have been on-board at every nuclear test conducted by North Korea and some have surmised that at least two of these tests were of Iranian design being tested by North Korea as part of their cooperation in nuclear weapons and missile systems. Anyone believing that anything stands between the Iranians building a thermonuclear warhead should immediately disabuse themselves of such thinking. Iran not only had the plans but has probably found the means of either smuggling in the required electronic devices or building them in Iran. The world leaders should not be talking about how to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and start thinking of how they might contain an already nuclear armed Iran, as that is a far more likely current reality than the lollipop hallucinatory views taken by the Europeans Union, European nations and United Nations. It is far more likely that Iran has fifty to one-hundred thermonuclear devices than it is they do not even have their design for a weapon already completed.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

The world will go on thinking what they want to believe is true and dictatorial regimes with delusions of reestablishing their empires of old and dominating the world scene once again will continue to arm themselves to their teeth and when the real shooting starts, once again Europe will be caught unprepared. The problem is that this time unprepared will equal dead and conquered with many major cities having been turned into smoldering nuclear wastelands uninhabitable for the next twenty to ten-thousand years. The other reality is that the next major war will yield results by the end of two days and the war will be largely over after two days. Whatever nation starts the next conflagration will not survive the first day and will receive a doubling down the second day just for good measure. The countries initially targeted will be in one of two states. Those without adequate anti-missile technology will be the greatest losers with however many missiles sent targeting them will very likely strike their targets. The United States nuclear umbrella is largely a promise to provide a return strike on the culpable nation and not an anti-missile shield. The United States is not adequately protected from the track of Iranian missiles and would have to rely on strategically placed naval assets. Congress has not seen it necessary even to discuss closing the southern gap in the old Soviet Union and Chinese defensive grid which NORAD commands. Those anti-missile defenses are barely functional to intercept many of today’s Russian and Chinese fourth generation missiles and warheads. Add to this the southern gap which reaches in an arc from just north of Los Angeles across the entire southern United States and up the other coast to the central region of the Carolina’s (see map below). These systems protect Canada quite adequately but rely on less proven systems for detection of incoming missiles to cover the southern exposures. This was why both North Korea and Iran have practiced launching polar orbiting spacecraft which approach the United States from the south on numerous passes each day. The Chinese and Russians realized this weakness and had determined the launch angles. It is uncertain which power gave this information to North Korea or Iran.

 

Existing NORAD and Coastal RADAR Shows Southern Open Region
Reliant on Over-the-Horizon Systems which
Detect Aircraft and Cruise Missiles Better than ICBMs

 

There is one nation which is fairly well prepared if for no other reason than the absolute need and a constant state of threat facing her daily. That nation, of course, is Israel. Israel has developed a multi-stage intercept system where four separate systems each perform in their set range parameters providing maximal coverage. Also, Israel is not a United States, being merely the size of New Jersey, thus Israel can cover all her borders equally as every system can intercept missiles from all directions. Intercept systems placed in the northern Negev cover every border just as well as a system placed just east of Ben Gurion International Airport. The only system requiring strategic placement is the Iron Dome which is not designed for interception of ballistic missiles but for shorter range rockets and missiles and having a very short acquisition time. Still, even the vaunted Iron Dome which has proven its effectiveness with close to a 90% intercept rate when including not firing at systems determined not to be striking vital civilian areas and most likely to strike an open field. Not firing when unnecessary is an important feature as each missile interceptor costs approximately fifty-thousand dollars and are used against fifty dollar rockets. Of course, if it is your house and children who are saved by the Iron Dome, then we all agree that it is well worth the costs. But Israel has a layered series of longer ranged interceptors which include but are not limited to Arrow Systems I, II, and III as well as David’s Sling. Other systems are in the works and remain classified, as do some of the newest deployed systems still being tested. These make sleeping at night much easier. Still, the best deterrence against Iran using nuclear weapons as a threat or in actuality would be regime change and the installing of democratic based governance, the exact system the multitude of demonstrators are hoping they will be granted the opportunity to put in place and work from there. This is something which we might speak of when its coming to fruition is more likely as currently, with the Mullahs possessing all the firearms and the military still supporting them, the demonstrators have little chance for success. At best, they could end up facing a fate similar to that in which Syria is suffering with the Mullahs on one side, MEK (Mujahedeen Khalq) on the other, and the people with hopes separate from both caught in the middle. That would not be helpful or desirable. There would be little difference between the current regime in Iran and any system put in place by the MEK terrorists, as both are simply different forms of radical Islam. The Iranian people desire an opportunity to choose their leaders and have a constitution with a nation operating under laws, not men, and all deserve a system such as this and all too few are permitted to keep such.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Radioactive Russia Scandal

 

What if a person with political power and connections arranged the sale of twenty percent of America’s uranium supply to a foreign interest? What if they did this for monetary remuneration of millions of dollars? Would this person and their accomplices be guilty of some criminal prosecution? What if this person committed and arranged this deal while serving in a position of the Cabinet of a President who approved of the deal as he preferred that the Russians have the nuclear fuel than the United States. What if this deal was payback for favors being delivered to the person and their interests in the United States? How far and deep does such a connection need to be before it becomes treasonous? And what if this person gained financially from these dealings and would be able to use these dealings to further their efforts to become President of the United States? Exactly how far does one’s ambition and greed need go before their perfidy becomes criminal? These are the real questions which need be asked about dealing with Russia and directly with Vladimir Putin. But fear not, the mainstream American media and European media will not dare touch these acts, which done by anyone else, would get them tried for treason and potentially have them facing twelve men with bolt action rifles and only two with real bullets and the remainder with blanks so that none would know which one fired the fatal shots. Every man in the firing squad could claim that they fired the blank as the report of the rifle was less than normal and that would be every man’s actual feelings as none desire being the executioner. But worry not as no firing squad will ever be called for, even for such blatantly criminal acts as these, as some people of power are above such laws as committing treason; they simply could murder somebody during a press conference covered live in the East Garden of the White House and they would never face any charges.

 

We decided to start by inundating our readers with articles covering the Russia Uranium transfer, supposed possibly criminal activity. We were nice and gracious and did the search for you and here is a sampling of what we found, not necessarily read, but found. There is The Hill, Washington Times, Investor’s Business Daily , New York Post, U.K. Daily Mail, National Review, Fox News, POLITICO, Newsweek, and lastly Boston Herald. If you read all or even most of these articles, then you probably know more than virtually every Television news personality and most others who are chiming in on this controversy.

 

Now, perhaps we can get to our commentary on the entire fiasco. Were Bill and Hillary complicit, probably, but who cares and what does it matter? Vladimir Putin used one Clinton Foundation bribe in order to get approval for the UraniumOne purchase of twenty percent of American mined uranium as well as having all involved with the kickbacks remaining silent, clearing the way for Congressional ratification of the New START Treaty. Oh, if they are guilty of illegal behavior then they should be prosecuted. Right. Really? Why would this time be any different than all the misdealing and illegal quid-pro-quo dealings of hundreds upon hundreds of previous political scams and insider trading which they made perfectly legal for them but not for the rest of us? By now we should all be aware that politicians rarely indict or otherwise prosecute one another which is why the swamp never gets cleared no matter who makes the promise. This will be great fun for the media with many enjoying making great noise and making claims that they have the morsel of incriminating evidence which will seal the deal. Others will go to any extreme to prove that nothing untoward has occurred and if it did, then how about President Trump and Putin, you have not forgotten the stealing the election scandal now, have you? Every news source will cover the Clintons and Obamas dealings with the Russians and the uranium deal as well as the Trump-Putin election stealing exactly as you would expect, with their own slant politically. Where can one turn for accurate and unbiased reporting on this? When you find out, please let us know as they might also give such coverage to things about which we actually care.

 

The Clintons, Bushes, Obamas and virtually every other political family are safely beyond reach of legal officials as long as their deals are made under clouded conditions with paybacks made through third parties and in untraceable routes. They will find cover with the other politicians including even those of the other party as their mutual protection is part and parcel of their comradery. Their motto could be “In Each Other We Trust.” The Congressional leadership has been as crooked as one can imagine. Has anyone ever wondered how members of Congress, and senior staff who are covered by similar rules and lack of restrictions, hold positions which have salaries starting at $174,000 and going as high as possibly $250,000 manage to leave Congress after ten to twelve years as multi-millionaires? They manage such things through currency manipulation such as putting thousands of dollars into the currency of some little known nation where they are about to build a new military base or send hundreds of millions in an aid package and then transferring the currency back to the United States after it has gained in health compared to the U.S. dollars.

 

They invest buying the stocks of companies they are about to give a huge contract thus benefitting from the investment made by themselves and the government in which they are employed. If we tried to do this, we would face charges of insider trading and face criminal behavior, but these people are completely immune to such charges thus are permitted to trade with such foreknowledge of where the government largess will be placed. Perhaps this is why so many college graduates are so interested in gaining a position in the staff of a member of Congress as though the initial payments in the form of salaries is poor, once they make it to a certain level, then they can also invest using their knowledge as their guiding tool knowing all the coming investments which Congress may be about to approve. Sure seems to be a quick and easy route to the millionaires club and even higher for those who can mange to make a career on Capital Hill. No financially rewarding deal will ever be a prosecutorial under the rules which the government higher employers play by though accusations will be thrown hither and nigh between the two major parties one at the other in the name of throwing dirt to see what might stick. By stick they mean what the media will blow all out of proportion making into one giant scandal of the moment before the news cycle moves on to the next disaster. That is the reality of life in the swamp and almost nobody ever spends even just a short five years there without becoming infected by the scandalous behavior of the government and all the money and sleaze that inundates the city.

 

The Clintons had the advantage of having committed acts for which a normal person would have faced long prison terms and walked away free as they were politicians who could get away with murder (not that we would claim they ever actually murdered anyone though others have). They had their fair share of scandalous behavior and concerns while in Arkansas and coming to Washington D.C. simply provided them with a far larger swimming pool from which to commit their pandering. Willian Jefferson Clinton chose women in which to invest his pandering and criminal escapades while for Hillary there were only two things which mattered, power and wealth. She married Bill for the knowledge that he would rise politically and was driven and she could tag along for the ride and possibly take off on her own at some point. That point came once Bill had served two terms with her covering for his escapades and running interference. She then expected that he would give her the support required for her to rise and be President, exactly as he had been, she desired to become. His assistance was rather tepid and her efforts have thusfar failed but she has reaped in the monetary half of her desires. The problem is that Senator from New York and even Secretary of State has not satisfied her lusts for the ultimate power, President of the United States. The Russia uranium deal was just another monetary arrangement, in which she gave Vladimir Putin and his power structure and financial friends what they desired, was repaid handsomely and likely promised that Putin will support her next bid for the White House just as he had presumably supported Donald Trump. President Obama desired this deal for the reason that it served his ideals of leveling the world and bringing the United States down from the position as the most powerful nation in the world and transferred some of that power to the Russians, and this served to weaken the United States and empower the Russians, what could have been better?

 

Clinton vs Trump

 

This was the big event which was never supposed to become an issue as Hillary was all but guaranteed to become the first woman President of the United States starting January 20, 2017, Inauguration Day. As something went wrong and now perhaps the Russian uranium deal would be exposed while still potentially relevant, there had to be some competing Russian scandal. Now enters that Russia and President Vladimir Putin stole the election through dirty tricks for Donald Trump as there can be no other explanation for why Hillary Clinton lost a sure fire election. The Russians were helping Republicans and were against Hillary, thus how could anybody expect us to believe that the Russians and Hillary Clinton had worked together in a cash for uranium deal if they worked to elect Trump. There you have the competing Russian evil manipulation of the United States elections and nothing, not even twenty percent of the mined uranium in America could compete with stealing the Presidency. And the media, in their collusion, ate it up and ran and are still running with it but some stories refuse to be outdone and just scream to be investigated. That is the problem Hillary Clinton and potentially others are facing as this was a deal beyond the pale if it proves true.

 

Beyond the Cusp