Beyond the Cusp

August 18, 2015

Parliament and Assembly of Experts

 

Nobody is asking President Obama or Secretary of State Kerry what the United States is going to do once Russia, China, European Union, United Nation and the rest of the world have all already dropped their sanctions and are ready to deal and Iran rejects the deal, what is next? Surely the Iranians know that it is business as usual as soon as a signing date has been suggested for officially lifting all sanctions making Iran officially open for business. There will not be any manner or way the P5+1, United Nations or other entity will be capable of putting the cork back in the bottle and keeping the Djinni trapped inside; it will have been free and its bargain time opening Iran for business. All Iran need do is coast with all signs being that their Parliament and Assembly of Experts all approving the deal with each level having a smaller and smaller majority where at the second highest level of governance, the Assembly of Experts, a group of Imams and Mullahs who are tasked with the most important of tasks, appointing Supreme Leaders when necessitated and advising the current Supreme Leader. With the public image of Iran all reportedly approving the Nuclear Deal and even the United States straggling in after the political theater has run its course, the only individual who will have held decisive commentary will be the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

Whereas the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had commented being not that thrilled with the deal and potentially disapproving the deal, he still will have not given his final word. The morning of the signing is at hand and it is scheduled to be the pinnacle event at the opening of the General Assembly opening ceremonies. This event is so big that it has totally eclipsed the Palestinian annual demand for statehood, even the nuclear deal has its bonuses, and the Presidents and Prime Minister from all six nations which made up the P5+1 negotiations. This includes Prime Minister of Britain David Cameron, Premier of China Li Keqiang, President of France François Hollande, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of the United States Barack Obama, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani are all gathered for the events in New York City at the United Nations building at Turtle Bay and it is just minutes away from the final signing of the deal. The speeches have been given and the leaders all are ready to sign the official treaty. One by one they sign the document each attempting to look and appear regal while signing the treaty placed approximately at hip level while standing before the wide podium holding the treaty. Only two signatures remain, President Barack Obama’s and President Hassan Rouhani’s. President Obama steps up and signs the treaty then makes his way to the speaker’s podium and gives a brief few words about the momentous occasion and the promising future this document promises, unusual for the President, and finishes his speech signaling to his Iranian counterpart and states, ‘With the signature of this treaty Iran will reenter the community of nations with the promise of cooperation, moderation and an outlook which will fill the world with hope, President Rouhani.’

 

President Obama entices the Iranian leader to approach and sign the treaty with a grand sweeping motion extending his arm with an open hand. Iranian President Rouhani steps up next to the President who steps back one step allowing the Iranian leader the microphone. President Rouhani’s speech is even more to the point and brief, ‘I am here today representing the people of Iran and the determined desires of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,’ President Rouhani then steps two steps to his left and deliberately bends and snatches the parchment from the signing podium and tears it in halves, then halves again and again and one last time in halves throwing the sixteen squared tears out onto the floor before a room filled with horrified leaders all at a loss for what just occurred. The tension is felt throughout the room, the fears felt around the world as they watch live on televisions and jaws drop as the Iranian President stalks from the room leaving a silence so deafening it would swallow any sound made anyway. Slowly the room of world leaders, diplomats and select media gather their wits. Cameramen turn their lenses to the anchor reporter assigned to cover this historic event and the anchors are still gathering their wits. Only Jon Stewart reacts spontaneously and immediately covering the event for the Comedy Channel who immediately blurts out, ‘Well, there goes Obama’s legacy, imagine that, his entire legacy lying on the floor in sixteen torn shreds of parchment that he fought Congress over as if it would matter, never mind!’

 

The reality is this is this situation is quite likely if one feels the pulse coming from Iran. There are demonstrations against the deal and many in the Parliament and other positions which merit coverage claiming that the deal is insulting and damages the Iranian image and that going through with the deal will simply humiliate Iran, something almost every Iranian would agree is not something at all desirable, though there might be as many reasons that could be seen as bad as there exist political outlooks, still all want their country seen as strong and reliable. The troubling signs in Iran is the higher one looks for clues across the numerous power structures. The vision as one climbs higher gets increasingly negative towards the Nuclear deal. Many in Iran view any limitations on their nuclear program as an insult and the demands for snap, invasive and unannounced inspections as mistrust and equates their leaders as being untrustworthy and calling everybody in Iran to be deceivers. There exists rejection for the nuclear deal in Iran coming largely from the most hardline politically and many of the university students who are of similar political ire being the leaders in the drive to reject the nuclear treaty. These divisions in Iranian society and the fact that the hardline politician and the most radicalized students are the ones being permitted to give voice to their feelings should be found to be quite revealing and perhaps as a portend of coming events.

 

There is another signal that all may not be going well with the political environment in Iran. Leading in these suspicions that we have been feeling here, goes beyond the rising angst as one climbs the power structures in Iran, is the recent announcement that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is claiming he will run again for the Presidency of Iran, or we wish we could call his political career, Achmed the Dead Terrorist for President. Simply make the required thought changes to the video below replacing Achmed or Achmed the Dead Terrorist with Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad for President, you get the idea. Perhaps Ahmadinejad could use some variant of Achmed the Dead Terrorist in a televised campaign ad, but then he might run afoul of the strictness police who would object to such humor.

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, news reports are all focused like a laser on Washington D.C. and the debate as to whether the House or Representatives, a given by all accounts, and the Senate will pass a piece of legislation in an attempt to void the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Many are curious why this ‘agreement’ requires legislation to kill it and not a supermajority support in only the Senate to ratify it as the treaty it actually represents. Apparently the Constitution has been tossed aside for the remainder of President Obama’s time in office and may have been considered void by the Administration for some time now. Nobody is focused much on Iran despite the fact that they too are in the middle of an affirmation which actually depends on a single person and his general health both physical and mental on the morning set for the signing, which we have predicted for the opening ceremonies for the General Assembly and its 70th session which starts on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 and lasts until closing on Tuesday, October 6 2015. Since the United States Senate has until September 17, 2015 to decide on the legislation, assuming they pass the legislation negating the agreement, as expected, and the President in turn vetoes and sends it back, then we can bet that the United States very well may not have ended the discussions and votes before the signing ceremony, thus making two nations unannounced about their signing the Nuclear Agreement. Never mind what the United States Congress decides, President Obama will claim he is simply signing the agreement passed by the United Nations Security Council, which is the exact same agreement, and will be seen to be signing for the United States quite possibly despite the subsequent override of his veto if for no other reason than his presumptuous signing despite Congress still having to vote on their override. Such disrespect by the White House might be exactly what the opposition to the Iran Deal might need to use such insult and disregard to garner the likely five votes they will be short of override when passing the legislation in the Senate. It appears to be assumed that the House of Representatives will have sufficient votes to override any veto leaving only the Senate in question.

 

What will the United States Senate and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both do, approve or veto the Iran Nuclear Weapons Agreement? This may be all the proof that President Obama might need to equate those Senators and Representatives who vote to override his veto with the most hardline individual in Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as both decided to reject the treaty for polar opposite reasons, but why would common sense and the motivation get in the way of a good lynching of President Obama’s opponents in the leftist and mainstream, but I repeat myself, media. One would have to wonder at this point, does the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei actually agree with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the agreement being a poor deal or is it possible for polar opposites to both refuse the same offering but for grandly different reasons?

 

 

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?

 

 

What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? Who could have ever believed that the two standout opponents of the Iran deal could be the two men pictured above? The world keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 16, 2014

Palestinian State and Obama, Will He Vote Yes or No?

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 War,Administration,al-Aqsa Mosque,al-Aqsa Mosque,Amalekites,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Ariel,Blood Libel,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Disengagement,Ditherer in Chief,Divided Jerusalem,Dome of the Rock,East Jerusalem,Egypt,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Union,Executive Order,Federica Mogherini,Forced Solution,Foreign Minister,France,Gaza,Government,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,History,Holy Sites,IDF,International Politics,Intifada,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jehrico,Jenin,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jihad,Jordan,Jordanian Pressure,Joseph’s Tomb,Joshua,Judea,Judean Hills,Kever Yosef,Kotel,Land for Peace,Leftist Pressures,Machpelah,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Middle East,Mount of Olives Cemetary,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Muslims,Naqba,Netanyahu,Old City,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Liberation Organization,Palestinian Pressures,Partition Plan,Peace Process,PLO,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Prime Minister,Prisoner Release,Promised Land,Protests,R2P Right to Protect,Rachel's Tomb,Recognize Israel,Refugees,Right of Return,Rock Throwing,Rocket Attacks,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Security,Settlements,Shechem,Six Day War,Statehood,Support Israel,Tel Aviv,Temple Mount,Terror,Third Intifada,Tomb of Rachel,Tomb of the Patriarchs,Two State Solution,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Waqf,Western Wall,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:38 AM
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There is a high expectation that by the end of the week, if not today, the Jordanian delegation to the United Nations will use their seat on the Security Council to place into consideration the petition for a Chapter Seven Resolution establishing a Palestinian Arab state in Gaza, Judea and Samaria using the 1949 Armistice lines, often referred to as the pre-1967 war borders despite the Arab League refusal to recognize them as a border for the state of Israel, with East Jerusalem as its Capital City. According to Voice of Israel public radio, any unilateral declaration of independence is a violation of the Oslo Accords and that if it receives international support, this would render all diplomatic agreements as void. This week has been witness to another example of extreme folly by the United States with President Obama claiming not to have decided whether or not to use the United States veto to kill the Jordanian petition and Secretary of State Kerry making the rounds talking to numerous European leaders from numerous nations as well as the European Union and also both the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The reasoning given by the leadership of the United States was that President Obama wished to get a feeling for how the European leadership was deciding to respond to the Jordanian request. There is also rumored that should the Jordanian resolution fail that the French are also drafting a resolution in a similar vein though particulars are quite sparse. There have been reports that part of Secretary Kerry’s actions this week was to attempt to get other Arab and Muslim leaders including from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and possibly Morocco or even others to make an effort to have Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the PLO which is the Arab group representing the Palestinian Arabs presenting the request using Jordan, as they do not have membership permitting their direct ability to petition the Security Council, to cancel the request for Jordan to present the petition.

 

One has to wonder what the actual reasoning is behind President Obama’s actions, particularly deploying his Secretary of State to go basically begging Arab leaders to intervene and plead his case for Mahmoud Abbas to withdraw his demands being relayed through the Jordanian United Nations Ambassador and then seeking the positions and reasoning of numerous European and European Union leaders as well as meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister, whose position is unlikely to surprise anybody, and the Russian Foreign Minister getting their ideas and demands about the coming petitioning for United Nations action. All of this could have been avoided if only President Obama was willing to take a stand instead of attempting to gage if the Jordanian proposal was going to even pass a Security Council consideration. This is similar to President Obama’s actions once before when it appeared that Mahmoud Abbas was going to apply for the Security Council to force a solution on Israel by recognizing a state for Abbas and the Arab population he presumably represents and upon finding that that proposition would not pass that it allowed President Obama to abstain and not use the United States veto power thus not offending Mahmoud Abbas. All President Obama needed to do to prevent this entire fiasco from playing out was for him to pick up that phone he was so proud of when threatening to act unilaterally on immigration and other areas of contention in the Congress and call Mahmoud Abbas and simply tell him that the United States is going to veto any prospective placed before the Security Council so he was simply wasting his time and that of everybody else in pursuing a vote on his resolution. That simple act would have brought this wild insanity to an abrupt halt as Mahmoud Abbas probably does not desire a confrontation with the United States, one of the largest donors to the Palestinian Authority and to UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency). But instead President Obama is attempting to be allowed to simply vote as he had in the majority of legislative actions when he was a state Senator and voted ‘present’ instead of ever taking an actual stand.

 

One might wonder what might be the difference between the petition about to be presented by Jordan and the petition which the French are currently drafting. The obvious difference is the Jordanian petition is a known entity as its contents were made available earlier this week while the French petition is still a work in progress thus any estimations into its contents are simply guesses, even if they are reasoned out, that would only make them reasoned guesses. The Jordanian petition sets a two year timeline whereby Israel must pull all of the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) troops, Shin Bet and other intelligence units, police and all Jewish residents who have built homes and lives beyond the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice Lines. This petition would make November 2016 the expressed deadline that if made as a Chapter Seven mandatory Resolution from the Security Council would obligate the nations of the world and especially the five permanent nations of the Security Council, United States, Russia, Britain, France and China, to provide military forces to apply the stipulation of the Resolution by force. This would place the United States, amongst the other nations, up front and center in providing troops to enter Judea and Samaria and even potentially Gaza and in the name of protecting the new Arab state with Mahmoud Abbas as their President for Life holding power enforced by the armies of the world. These forces would be charged with assuring that Israel refrain from any actions which could be determined as potentially harmful to the Arab state forced into fruition by the collective armies of the world who would occupy these new lands and enforce their will upon Israel.

 

Such a situation would permit the Arabs in Judea and Samaria to launch rockets down onto Tel Aviv and the rest of central Israel onto the most heavily built areas in Israel with complete impunity as Israel would be powerless to take any preventive measures. The Israelis would be blocked from entering Judea and Samaria even to arrest a known rocket scientist who was developing and assisting in building, aiming and firing these rockets. The same would apply to Gaza which is inhabited and basically ruled by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both organizations very similar to ISIS, especially Hamas whose Charter instructs them to strike down the disbeliever wherever you should see them and to lay in ambush and terrorize them, and to beat that, their Hamas Charter includes language calling for the extermination worldwide of all Jews and afterwards setting up the caliphate over the world using the United States arsenal of weapons including nuclear weaponry. The existence of American troops as well as European troops, Russian troops, Chinese troops standing to enforce the borders of Judea and Samaria and guarding the Western Wall, Kever Yosef, Kever Rebecca and the Cave of Machpelah (Cave of the Patriarchs) and most notably the Temple Mount itself, places all within Arab territory thus placing them beyond the reach of every last Jew in the world and reserving all of them to the not so tender mercies of the Islam.

 

Of course, like any of this would really matter once the world has lined up opposing Israel and backing the terrorists and granting these terrorists a launching platform defended by the armies of the world from which to launch their rockets with impunity. Then we need to ask how these troops stationed within these terror-filled areas will react when those terrorists begin to launch attacks on Israeli civilians. Should they actually attempt to carry out the entirety of their mission and with honest efforts to shut down such attacks over the border targeting Israel acting as real peacekeepers? I have a difficult time even visualizing such a construct but I can easily define the acts should such an attempt at interfering with the terrorists be tried. The result would be roadside bombs, suicide bombers and other manners of traps, ambushes and attacks placing the soldiers who took the fateful steps of attempting to prevent Arab assaults on Israel as prime targets for the terrorists until they made the appropriate mea-culpa and stood down from any further attempts at preventing the barrages on Israel. Eventually, Israel would absolutely have no alternative but to respond to the opposition forces protecting the terrorists and enter the territories and arrest those they knew were responsible for launching rockets into Israel. Would these foreign troops then stand to prevent the IDF entering Arab lands to destroy the production factories and terror related structures, reducing their threats posed to Israelis? Would the forces placed within the Arab state by the United Nations then become part and parcel of the Arab army facing off against the Israeli forces? Just such a scenario would become reality and this is something which nations would need to address before sending troops into such a potentially charged situation. These troops would require special mission statement clearly stating what actions they could expect to have their home country sanction and what would be the limits that they could act upon and interfere.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 7, 2012

Why the UN was Unable to Sanction Syria

The United Nations Security Council was unable to come to an agreement last week on the wording or actions to employ against the Assad government in Syria which has murdered over 7,000 Syrian citizens in an ever increasing violent confrontation. The tumult and conflagration has continued to slowly grow taking more lives week after week for close to a year now. The Security Council had attempted to water down the wording of the sanctioning rhetoric in their motion against President Assad’s murderous war against his people, in order to hold on to power, attempting to arrive at something that all the nations could agree. In the end they voted and still both Russia and China used their vetoes to block any United Nations actions. Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki-Moon came out and expressed his disgust at the lack of Security Council action against Syria claiming that the vetoes reflected poorly on the United Nations. So, what exactly happened that prevented the United Nations from taking action in what many claim is an obvious case for international intervention?

 

Well, it is really quite basic. You need to understand exactly what is occurring in Syria, in the heart of the Middle East. Some might claim that it was just another case of Security Council political maneuverings which has historically pitted the United States and often Britain opposite Russia and China thus having either one side or the other using their vetoes in order to block any motions or sanctions which are supported by the other. But in this case, most likely nothing would even be able to pass the General Assembly as Syria has an automatic support group depending on whether or not the Arab block decided to actually vote against them when push comes to shove or are the Arab League members honestly fed up with Assad. One can hold on to hope, but I would need an actual vote to prove their resolve. This would be entirely different if this had been motions against Israel for any moves they might take to prevent the near continuous rockets from raining down on Israeli cities and other attempted terror attacks whenever and where ever the opportunity can be found.

 

Back to the United Nations Security Council and the lack of resolve for action against President Assad who is murdering his own people in Syria. There is another name by which Syria can be identified by in this case before the United Nations, that name is “Not Israel”. So, what we witnessed this past week was a lack of resolve to condemn Not Israel for killing civilians. Two of the permanent members of the Security Council utilized their vetoes in order to prevent sanctions against the President of a Middle East nation which has suffered from continuous violence this past year, the country of Not Israel. There have been calls for the Security Council to continue to try to find wording which all sides are able to agree to in order to pass a statement expressing resolve to stop the carnage in Not Israel but there is little optimism that Not Israel will be sanctioned. We will have to wait and see and hope that some path can be found to end the killings throughout Not Israel. With any luck, something will occur with Israel so we can change the subject and dwell on Israel allowing Not Israel to fall from the agenda. We predict the Security Council will find something to take the world’s stare off of Not Israel and return their attention to the real problems in the area, the actions of Israel. See how easy it is to understand the problem in this instance for the United Nation? It is not their fault for not condemning the heinous actions of President Assad of Not Israel and if they can hold out at most another week or two, then they can return to what the United Nations does with great regularity and unequaled ability, condemning the real problem, Israel, and leave Not Israel in peace to continue murdering each other without suffering the attention of the World.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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