Beyond the Cusp

May 29, 2019

The Threats Come with Another Election


There were sufficient rough spots and unsteady unification for temporary gains which may fray right down the center exploding those somewhat tenuous bonds which barely survived last round. Another problem is that Likud barely received the necessary plurality of the vote to be chosen to try and make a coalition. Now the liberal left could take charge and get the opportunity to make the next coalition, assuming they are not provided with that exact opportunity after Bibi Netanyahu admits his inability to form a coalition. Such is unlikely but definitely a possibility and there is no guarantee against their taking such an offer and running with that straight to Avigdor Lieberman agreeing to give him the Defense portfolio and give a few other parties their ministries to which they aspire and cobble an unwieldly coalition which holds together long enough to permit more mischief in their ever present desire to exchange land for peace. The fear is not so much that they will provide Mahmoud Abbas all he demands, but, even before that, agree to meet every demand coming from the Arab and far leftist parties again simply to present a coalition. One item where the left has advantage over the right is their willingness to come together simply, whether convenient or directly against their individual goals and desired ends simply in order to wield such power.


Of course, such problems of holding together a somewhat less obvious coalitions together could, no matter how unlikely and illiberal, still unravel as egos clash and refuse to remain playing second-fiddle and decide to take their chances on their own. Such is most likely to breach the agreement under which the Blue White Party was formulated. Yair Lapid was promised a share in the position of Prime Minister but only after the leader of the other faction, Israel Resilience Party, was awarded the first two years. Holding his drive to be Prime Minister, specifically to be the Prime Minister under whose tutelage an agreement with the Palestinian Authority was reached, as if such is even likely. The friction is already fraying the bonds as the Generals leading the Israel Resilience Party were not as sufficient and important as to deliver enough additional voters so as to make theirs a majority outcome. Yesh Atid Party leader, Yair Lapid, is another who was willing to hold the lesser position simply as the method to attain his goals. With going to new elections, as all indicators are currently pointing, being a definite probability, every coalition will be tested. Basically put, once new elections become a reality, then everything returns to the starting point with all of the coalitions back at square-one. Expediency was the rule under which coalitions were made. What will serve as the binding reason putting coalitions together this time is anybody’s guess, but expected are similar agreements as went together last-time without as much of a ruckus.


For those parties which failed to clear threshold, new elections are another chance as hope springs eternal. The ones which came within a few hair widths, simply will be required to attract a few more voters for their recent break into the next Knesset. The other challenge is for the voters to maintain their enthusiasm and return to the polls and vote. The problem comes when the voters start to second-guess their reasoning and change their vote from the original party to a different one. Whatever is going to be with these elections will be held on Tuesday, September 17, 2019. Should Bibi Netanyahu be neutral and not work so hard at taking vengeance on those he had adverse feelings towards, it would be unusual. Such has been the case between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Neftali Bennett. There is some unsettled business between these two individuals which has led Bibi Netanyahu to feel it is necessary for him to force Naftali Bennett from politics. Bibi was instrumental is keeping Bennett’s New Right secular Zionist Party from clearing threshold. It is doubtful that this will happen again as Bennett and his fellow party will hopefully broaden their campaign.


Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu Miri Regev Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett

Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu Miri Regev Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett


The big question is whether or not another election held so close together could cause much, if any, difference. That is where things actually get somewhat interesting. With new elections, Bennett and the New Right might pass threshold. Much will be dependent on whether his number two individual, Ayelet Shaked, remains in the party or bolts taking the offer made by Likud, which makes perfect sense as without her, the New Right will likely not make threshold again and will simply become another failed party. The mistake which Bennet made was on choosing to be, as it was described, a right-wing, Zionist, secular party with mild religious leanings. Basically, Naftali Bennett was attempting to fill a gap which did not exist. Bennett was seeking to place his party between Jewish Home and the Likud Parties, but there exists almost no space between the Likud and Jewish Home when it comes to voting blocks, thus Bennett was seeking to fill a gap which barely exists. He was out to make Likud Lite Party to give the Likud voter an alternative to Bibi Netanyahu, something they apparently were not seeking an alternative and thus he received minimal support. The fact that he almost made threshold was surprising but some also claimed that Bennett was seeking to be the replacement for the dead Jewish Home Party, the party where his surprise and abrupt departure taking with him the number two person from the Party as well as a third Minister of the Knesset all the day elections were called. His actions of refusing to permit a Central Committee meeting for close to a year, with the people who followed him and some other difficulties he pressed onto his former party, Jewish Home, it becomes clear he envisioned being their replacement except under conditions where he would personally choose the rabbinate of the party.


With likely merely a less effective strategy by which Bibi Netanyahu is able to depress the voters from the New Right, unless Likud does steal Shaked away leaving Bennett high and dry with no oars in the water, the end results of new elections will be very close to what they were. The main differences will be that Bennett will probably make threshold and the alliance of HaBayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home), Ichud Leumi (National Union), and Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) as a block with Jewish Home as the leading party, which they called United Right Wing Parties will probably gain another mandate or possibly two. One or two of these gains will come from Likud Party going forward. This would produce a Knesset where even without Avigdor Lieberman, there would be a right-wing coalition with sixty-three to sixty-five Mandates thus preventing Lieberman from holding the government hostage, so to speak. Further, it is possible that Avigdor Liebermann and the Yisrael Beiteinu Party could suffer from voter anger over the new elections being forced by his intransigence. These votes could end up with Likud, Blue White or any of the other parties largely favoring the right over left wing parties. Should the unspeakable occur and Yisrael Beiteinu gain seats, these could come from anywhere but in the end would be supportive of a Likud led coalition. The secret in Israel with election is to forge a coalition such that no one party, other than one’s own party. Of course, the dream would be one’s own party to reach sixty-one mandates and thus be the coalition, but as Israel has very likely more political parties than one country so small would appear capable of forming, but we have and now they all are explaining how they should run the country. This is simply another instance of, only in Israel.


Beyond the Cusp


May 3, 2019

Election America, to Steal or not to Steal


There is going to be an all-out assault during the next American elections with the media making mountains out of ant hills, not even a mole hill size items. They will barrage the American voters with a different Trump controversy, conspiracy, scheme, collusion and other enticing tidbits. Each of these claims will have a half life of about twelve hours making them disappear within a couple of days, which is why the media is already lining up their ducks and making sure they are all in a row. But no matter how much they are able to invent, infer, suggest, rumor and hyperventilate over, these efforts are going to be overshadowed by the Democrat Primary Race.


We all know that hell knows no fury like a leftist scorned, and the Democrat Primaries will have an ample quantity of leftists each competing to make the others appear stingy when it comes to offering free stuff. The Democrats will have two sides to their campaign, the who can out-spend all of the other candidates with offers of free medical coverage for all, free college for all, forgiving all college debts, guaranteed wage, fifteen-dollar an hour minimum wage, paid vacations and whatever other socialist gems in the rough they can invent. Their backstabbing, undercutting, slash and burn campaigning will provide everything the Republicans require to win the election without ever using anything which was not part of the Democrat no-holds barred campaigning.


But the Republican primaries might also have some excitement as the establishment, country club, old guard Republicans may very well put somebody up against Trump. Originally, that person appeared to be Mitt Romney as that was the reason for him bumping a fresh and upcoming young man from the ballot so he would be in a position to threaten Trump. Whomever the Republicans attempt to run against President Trump will likely be guaranteed to win the majority of states which will be in the Democrat’s pocket during the election and as such will be a great measuring as to how the election itself will play out. There is another possibility in that the chosen savior who is going to replace Trump on the Republican ticket actually is dragged across the finish line ahead of Trump. Should this be the result, the Republican hierarchy might be able to do to Trump what Hillary did to Bernie Sanders. This would not bode well for the Republicans as not replacing Trump on the ticket is very likely to have many Trump supporters simply staying home. The one secret to the Trump victory which has been mostly ignored were the numbers of first-time voters and people returning to active voting after taking a long break. Remember the little group known as the Silent Majority? Well, they may not be the majority but when it came to supporting President Trump, they definitely were not silent. Should they go quiet, then the Republicans will definitely lose the White House and very probably lose the House and a possibility of losing the Senate. Such a collapse of the Republican base would place the surviving Democrat from the primaries in the White House very probably with a favorable Congress. With a small amount of rule changing such as cloture requiring a simple majority instead of sixty votes and other adjustments and they would be capable of almost anything policy wise.


They Can do Socialism Right, Really?

They Can do Socialism Right, Really?


The next American elections could provide some of the most ridiculous articles when attempting to cover the give away for votes the Democrats appear to be ready to use as their campaign slogan. Get your free stuff here, for a small fee, but we will only tax the rich and if Elizabeth Warren should win, she has proposed the greatest job and wealth killer in the world, a wealth tax. Such a tax would see money and corporations fleeing the United States in order to protect their shareholders and the health of the company. The remainder of the initial squeaking from the overly crowded field of candidates has already laid out several plans and programs which would completely destroy the American economy and do so with great alacrity. The Democrat Party has become the American for Socialism Party with the banner claiming, ‘We can do it right unlike the previous thousand times socialism has gutted a national economy.’


The proof that the Democrats have become the supporters of socialism was proven by their reaction to the Israeli elections. Their hatred for Bibi Netanyahu stems from far deeper than his nationalist agenda and stated support for the Israelis residing beyond the Green Line. Their initial distaste for Bibi Netanyahu originates back in the early 2000’s when he was assigned to be the Israeli Finance Minister. Ariel Sharon gave Bibi this assignment because it had been the death knell for every former Finance Minister as the Israeli economy was hamstrung with heavy amounts of socialism left over from the thirty plus years of the Labor Party running the country. Bibi immediately started to sell off many of the government agencies to private corporations completely separating them from government control. The taxes were revamped to be more favorable to research and development and allowing for the retention of more of the wealth. Israel still has that burdensome VAT tax, but some things might be going too far too fast. Still, Bibi transformed much of the Israeli economy into one based on Capitalism. Bibi also reinvested in Israeli companies giving them an advantage in receiving government contracts over foreign companies. These transformations took Israel from Socialistic economy to a Capitalist economy and the country has never looked back. But to the current Democrat leadership, such a transformation is taking the economy in the wrong direction. They insist that the government be the decider of who will be a winner and who will be the loser. Government will guarantee that workers have all the rights and the corporate owners will be made subjected to the worker’s demands. Should the American people choose their policies, then America could be heading over the falls without even a barrel.


Beyond the Cusp


November 8, 2018

Requiem for America


Everyone is putting their own spin on the elections and avoiding the issue of what kind of future does this bode for the United States. There were some very significant events which require addressing if we are to understand what is the future direction and where will the United States sit after a few more rounds of elections. The immediate take away from the election is the nation is still impossibly divided. President Trump’s opportunities for reelection were actually bolstered by the election results. We know, how can that be when he lost control of the House of Representatives. Well, this will take a bit of explaining, so please be patient. The first item comes at us from the Senate where we vote for the Senator most likely to become the new John McCain and lead the Republican Resistance. That will be the freshman Senator from Utah, Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney was anti-Trumper extraordinaire from the very beginning and only came out as a remade man and new Trump supporter when he announced he was taking the Utah Senate seat. There was an up a coming Republican who was prepared to run, but money and influence won out as usual and the Republican Party caved to Uncle Mitt. Now that he is safely in the Senate, Mitt Romney can return to his former self and oppose Trump leading a crew of five to ten Republicans working against the President depending on the issue. In too many items, this group will prove sufficient to prevent the Senate working with President Trump. This will work against the President and he would be best advised to avoid any attacks or criticism of Mitt Romney and instead work with Mitt as closely as possible in order to make his opposing the President appear to look vindictive and traitorous.


That is it for the Senate and so on to the now Democrat controlled House of Representatives. Welcome back to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, at least for the next year after which she will be deposed by the Democrat most likely to run for President if that is at all possible. A very big amount is going to depend on what the first piece of business is in the House. Numerous Democrats have trumpeted that they would immediately bring up charges of Impeachment against President Trump on charges ranging from Russia collusion to Obstruction of Justice to mental incompetence to we just really hate him so he must be terrible. Any version of Impeachment is a declaration of war against the President by the Democrats in the House. This would signal the beginning of a battle of wills which will result in a stand-off which neither side gains anything. On the other hand, the Democrats could surprise everyone and take up the budget as their first item and deliver the President a budget which represents their agenda. Such a budget would defund much of the already planned military build-up, raise taxes, reinstitute a 35% Capital Gains Tax, reinstitute the Death Tax, double the amount of welfare so as to cover all illegal immigrants, defund ICE, defund the border wall, increase Medicare ten fold to cover everyone under a Medicare for All plan, raise the debt ceiling and a plethora of other pet projects proposed by any house member whose ideas coincide with the leftist agenda. This budget would be dead on arrival in the Senate, but it would serve as the litany of items the Democrats will demand in exchange for funding anything the President proposes and they will also demand that at least Capital Gain Tax, Death Tax, a return to having five levels of taxes based on income and their demand that the top three of these pay their fair share while allowing the lowest to get a refund larger than anything they could possibly have paid. Once there is an agreement, should they get higher taxes, they will run to the media claiming Trump is a hypocrite who lied about lowering taxes, if they force raising the debt ceiling, they will scream to the media that Trump is ruining the nation fiscally by increasing the debt and if they get some of their programs say Medicare for example, they will decry that Trump is starving Medicare because he cut it by tens of millions of dollars because, this part is left out, he settled to only raise medicare five fold and not ten fold. With the Democrats, a cut in a program they support is any amount less than their wildest hopes for funding that program. For example, Program Y is currently funded to the tune of three and one half billion dollars, they are touting five billion dollars for Program Y and the end result of negotiations they settle on four and a half billion dollars, then they will cry out that Program Y is being cut by half of a billion dollars. We actually have an old article on Politicians and their meaning of spending cuts if you care to be amused and potentially enlightened. For President Trump to get his agenda through Congress, he is going to have to pay the House Democrats’ price, and that will not necessarily be all bad nor will it be all good.


What is more important is the general direction of the future for the United States. For this, one will need to wait for the full coverage of the vote breakdown by age, location and virtually every other category. As we like to take stabs into the murkiness of the yet unknown, we are going to take a stab at what we think will be these breakdowns and what it will mean. Some of what we will be predicting should already be fairly obvious if anyone really cares to sit down and honestly think about these items. The first thing is the majority of the Republican voters are well over thirty, the dividing line past which we were told back in the day not to trust people past that age. Of course, now we are past that age, so can we trust ourselves. Truthfully, the majority of the Republican voters are over forty and, dare we say it, even fifty. Voters under twenty-five are well over 90% Democrat voters, especially those registered as close to deadlines for voting in any state. Those youth with a general education or soft-sciences education are coming out of college as sworn socialists and will probably remain as leftists well past age forty. Youth still in High School actually are not quite as bad off as maybe as many as eight percent would vote Republican though fewer would identify as conservative. There are some students who believe that the Democrat Party is conservative, and these are the lost generation for sure. The Social Democrat Party has the majority of its members, other than Bernie Sanders, under twenty-five in age. At a Social Democrat Convention, one might mistake it for Bernie Sanders on an outing with his grandchildren. The Democrats, which includes the Social Democrats, have invested their future in forming an education monopoly where the instructors strongly lean towards being dedicated socialists who believe that despite it having failed everywhere else, it has not been attempted here and they know they can make it work this time. Truth is, it cannot work for a simple reason, it is not driven by human nature.


You allow people to list their needs and also their ability you will very quickly receive very long lists of needs and find very few with abilities to fill the needs requests. That is socialism despite the fact that every socialist simply assumes everybody will work diligently and be worth more in productivity than the cost of their needs. Why, when working hard and doing nothing, will result in basically equal wages, or at least working at a very relaxed pace, as compared to working as hard as possible, results in the exact same amount of pay? Capitalism is based on that horrible and disgusting concept, according to everybody except a true capitalist, greed. You work hard to earn more and this is never more evident than at a worksite where one is paid by the number of completed units your group can produce. Piece-work is the purest form of Capitalism and it works because it benefits off of each worker’s greed. In Capitalism, if you work diligently, you will be able to get more of what you desire and if you work smart as well and find a means of self-employment where you can hire others to work hard while you work smart, then the sky is the limit. But, this time, according to many of our youth here as well as in the United States, the disease has reached every shore, Socialism will work because the groups in the United States know how to apply Socialism such that it works and they will not make the same mistakes as the last hundred and fifty cases who tried Socialism and failed. Can we simply say a half dozen words more about the wonderful results of Socialism; Soviet Union, Cuba, Ukraine, and Venezuela.


Now for what portends for the future of America. The youth are solidly Socialists and they become ever the more so with greater amounts of education. They have been so solidly locked into this Socialist belief structure that they are beyond reach probably well past forty and somewhere close to fifty. As the more conservative people educated before 1975 age out of the public roll, these youth will rapidly become the majority. This was evidenced in Texas despite the apparent ease with which Ted Cruz won reelection despite the polls predicting he would likely lose his seat. The seats for the House of Representatives went stronger for the Democrat Party with the Republicans losing three or four seats. Texas is going to be the most important state in the near future. Once the Democrats flip Texas, and do not even claim this cannot be done as they flipped Colorado and they are working on Texas with the same tactics, target specific regions, have the Californians fleeing California resettle in these vulnerable districts and then you flip the balance of the state. Should Texas land in the Democrat Party basket along with California and New York, the Democrats would simply be required to hold the remainder of the current states in which they have comfortable majorities and then they will love the Electoral College. Further, as more and more Americans reside in major metropolitan areas, these areas tend to play Democrat for sociological reasons, they will gain in the percentage of voters in many states. The further future of about a decade or two at the most the leftists will take control of the government. They will easily hold the House of Representatives and will take the Senate but by a slightly less of a percentage than the House and will at some point take the White House. Once the Democrats again attain the magic majorities with the White House, expect a retooling of the United States with little if any regard for the Constitution and by the time any of their measures have been taken to the Supreme Court, the damage will have been done.


The man who praised the United States in the most majestic of terms also defined what would bring the end of the great American experiment. That man was the French diplomat, political scientist and historian, Alexis de Tocqueville. He stated numerous times about the wonders, the faith and the love of freedom along with some like this, “In no other country in the world is the love of property keener or more alert than in the United States, and nowhere else does the majority display less inclination toward doctrines which in any way threaten the way property is owned,” where he stressed the importance of private ownership. But he has a few very prescient views about what would cause the American downfall of which the following is the more necessary for the current times where he stated, “The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Many more Tocqueville quotes can be read here. But here in the near term we are going to see the Democrats in the House of Representatives doing everything to undermine President Trump. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not have all the control of the future of the Democrat Party in the House of Representatives. You will have a number of committee chairs who will have their own demands on what needs be done to punish President Trump for his win against Hillary Clinton, the one they absolutely believe should have been President. There will be Maxine Waters, Elijah Cummings, Adam Schiff and others will each try to find some means of using their committee to begin an investigation into Trump’s mishandling or outright criminal behavior and then possibly demand impeachment on the grounds of whatever they can manufacture, or even find which is legitimate.


Capitol Cash Machine

Capitol Cash Machine


Should the Democrats in the House of Representatives actually push through Impeachment, which having a majority is easily accomplished, they only need a majority, the Senate requires two-thirds to find the President guilty and to remove him from office. So the Democrats in the House of Representatives go ahead and push Impeachment proceedings and send a bill of Impeachment to the Senate, what next. Well, the Senate must hold a trial and not just vote it down. This trial must have the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court as the acting person ruling the Senate, instead of the Vice President, and the charges need to be read and then there will be the representatives chosen by the House to be the Prosecutorial agents and the President will have his representative to take the side of the defense. The end result is already known unless the Democrats can find something so heinous that the majority of Republicans would decide that they could not defend the President, which is what happened to Nixon when the leading Republicans in the Senate informed President Nixon that they were not going to prevent his being Impeached from Office, which is why he resigned and we can assume Trump would do similarly if faced with such a proposition. The odds of the Democrats finding anything which even began to approach such a level of serious is highly unlikely, we would put it at next to impossible. But, as they say, hope springs eternal and so the Democrats will continue to chase after each passing idea just as the neighborhood dog chases after cars and probably with equal outcome.


The odds are that the House of Representatives will be so demanding and overplay their hand in such a fanatically fantastic manner as to provide the Republicans with quote after quote which they will be able to use to their advantage. We will bet that the Democrats will have sufficient wisdom not to allow Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to speak without having first become safely confident she had memorized her answers to any questions and was not going to go off of script and say whatever was echoing around in her head. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez has some of the greatest potential to be the gift which keeps on giving. Joe Biden was also a master of the gaffe, but at least he was amusing, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez lacks the breadth of experience nor has she the mastery of words to compete with Joe Biden, plus he gaffed in a far less toxic environment, today the political swamp is turning to acid. It was the overplaying of their hand under President Obama which brought the United States to where they are today with Donald Trump as President. There is a scintilla of truth when the Democrats claim that their taking of the House of Representatives is but a harbinger of things to come. We will close with a prediction that the Democrats will win the trifecta of a very comfortable majority in the House of Representatives, over sixty Senators and the White House in the 2028 election. As nothing placed on the Internet is ever lost, we are posting what will be potentially a great successful prediction or something which we will come to regret when on Wednesday, November 8, 2028, the majority of our followers will let us hear from them. So, we will promise to continue posting even if our prediction proves slightly less than correct.


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