Beyond the Cusp

December 16, 2019

British Choose Conservative Party While People Riot in Iran

 

The British elections led to a victory and mandate to complete BREXIT with Boris Johnson as their Prime Minister. But there was a secondary message coming from these elections, namely that the British renounced the hateful racism and anti-Semitism which had become part of the messages coming from the Labour Party in general and from Jeremy Corbyn in particular. The British elections were just the next step coming from Europeans demanding their nations return to their independence and away from the European Union (EU) and centralized rule from Brussels. We have to add that most of the distrust of the centralized power without any input, that the EU intends to spread over all of Europe, has come from former Soviet nations which perhaps remember their former results from centralized power ruling from Moscow.

 

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

 

These results will be used by some in the United States to boost their arguments about President Trump, both pro and con. These sorts of arguments are best just left behind as one walks away, as arguing with such people from either side, using the British elections as a predictor for the upcoming 2020 elections in the United States is simply a waste of one’s time. Yet, the results of the British elections will not be affecting much on the world’s stage as the central focus of the world revolves around two nations, the obvious is Iran followed by the favorite nation for United Nations General Assembly to condemn, Israel. Of these two, Iran is the larger problem which the world needs to find something to remove the current Judeophobia, prevent Iranian hegemony of the Middle East and, in a perfect world, return control over Iran to the Iranian people. These problems are far more important keeping a careful watch over Iran and the effects of her involvement in the Syrian strife and violence as well as her influences in places such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. Currently, the ball is on the Iranian side of the court leaving more room for speculation backed only by feelings. So, what do we expect in the coming future?

 

News about the internal struggle spreading throughout Iran has been sketchy at best and totally suppressed about the remainder. Meanwhile, the people of Iran are fighting for new governance which is more representative of the Iranian people. There is a large and growing undercurrent eroding at the power wielded by the Mullahs currently ruling in Iran through use of force. The situation in Iran is exactly as one might presume, with fixed elections and other shams giving a pretense of democratic elections. This is what has led to the current round of rioting and protests against the current rulers. News about the spreading protests has been relatively disorganized at best and imposed silence at its worst. This leads to much news being pure speculation mixed with hope for the Iranian people.

 

Our biggest fears are that this atmosphere of rejection targeting the ruling Mullahs could lead to an irresponsible set of actions by the Mullahs. The most feared scenario includes a nuclear attack on the American Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy assigned to patrol the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean as well as the nations bordering these waters. Their mandate includes Iran. Often another scenario is mentioned where Iran starts their offensive in earnest against Saudi Arabia while simultaneously launching a massive attack upon Israel used to distract the world’s attention. Such an attack would be played in Iran as their leadership taking care to protect the people from these outside menacing forces. We do not foresee Iran using force against Israel beyond the consistent launching rockets by the IRGC in Syria as any escalation could trigger a larger Israeli response. Iranian leaders are aware that Israeli leadership would be required to respond to missiles detected coming from Iran well before they would strike their targets and possibly crippling Israeli capabilities. Israeli leadership would need to decide how severe any Iranian attack might be as well as which warheads were launched, specifically as to whether any WMD’s were included in such an attack. Such weapons include chemical and bio weapons as well as nuclear warheads. Any such attack from Iran would be hopefully largely, if not totally, intercepted by the layered protective spheres of the Israeli anti-ballistic missile defenses.

 

Talking about any Iranian strike, our belief is that Iran has absolutely little if any desire to exchange ballistic missiles with Israel as they are aware that such an exchange would result in the destruction of much of Iran with potentially minimal destruction in Israel as Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli defensive systems. Should Iran strike anyone, the most likely target would be the American naval ships off her coasts. Iran has been observing how President Trump has pulled American forces from much, if not all, of the Middle East battlegrounds. This has probably led to their concluding that President Trump would avoid any direct conflict initiated by Iran. They likely feel that such an attack could lead to concessions from the United States in order to avoid further American casualties. Such presumptions are the perfect setting for an ever-escalating exchange between Iran and the United States where Iran would be the loser. The United States would not consider herself as the victor as the resulting protests against the use of force and against Trump would prove to be a divisive and destructive force in the country.

 

This leads to our final vision of the future and the results of the people rioting across Iran demanding new governance and an end to the rule by the Mullahs. We fear that the results from these protests will be the deaths of thousands of Iranians as the Mullahs will refuse to go down without a monumental fight. In the end, the rulers of Iran will unleash the IRGC and the Basenji Militias upon the protesters. It will result in a near exact copy of the 2009 protests except with far higher casualty count for those protesting. Should the pro-democracy Persians, the actual and correct name for most of the Iranian people, start taking to the streets in vast numbers, their success or failure will be dependent upon what response and potential arming the Iranians receive from the United States. The knife edge upon which the world currently sits has Iran and the United States in direct opposition to one another. Iran could initiate problems in any number of means. Iran could stop all the oil tankers from entering or leaving through the Strait of Hormuz or block the Bab el Mandeb (see map below) blocking the only exit and entrance to the Suez Canal from the south.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Bab el Mandeb blockade would also negate the sole Israeli port in the south, Eilat, from access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Preventing access to shipping lanes is considered an act of war. Well, that is, except if the nation in question is Israel. That aside, the most likely conflict will break out between the United States and Iran and not Iran and Israel. Should the conflict turn to being between Iran and Israel, the world (aka General Assembly) will immediately blame Israel with minimum opposition. This is the one item you can bet and rest assured of a win. The world’s ‘blame Israel’ reaction is the one constant in this rattled and violent world. Directing hatred towards Israel is the latest Judeophobia spreading around the world. We can only pray that the world awakens and removes their blinders and finally accepts that Israel has been reborn as predicted in Torah and related commentaries and this time, we are returning home and have little if any desire to leave. Hopefully, the world comes to grips with their unsupportable Judeophobia before it leads to another great war which will result in much of the world being destroyed and a death toll beyond any other war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 14, 2019

The Forgotten People are the Israeli Public

 

We hear almost incessantly about the plight of the Palestinian Arabs never stopping to wonder how their lives differ from that of Israelis. We are referring to daily life along with the occasional trip to see a doctor, go to Tel Aviv to get goods not available in our town, take a trip to Jerusalem to visit government offices or to simply look at all the sights or a myriad of other items. The first things we will talk about are the regular obstacles and things which make up an average week. Should we decide to go to either mall in town, there will be the checkpoint where we walk through a magnetometer checking for metal no matter how small and any bags you have are gone through by one of the people at the checkpoint. Just to get this out of the way, there are checkpoints all over Israel even to include restaurants, office buildings, train stations and on and on meaning that it is possible to have to pass through three or four or more on a badly planned day. Additionally, there are security cameras in places throughout town. Some are looking for shoplifters while others are actually for security. Checkpoints and monitoring cameras are simply part of life in our current state of the world. We take them as a necessary part of our being kept protected and safe. Even with all the precautions keeping one safe, often you just worry if you really are being kept as safe as possible, and you accept that some balance has been attempted, but, yes, checkpoints can be a hassle, more so when you are late and barely have time to catch the right train.

 

The biggest difference between residing in Israel and the Palestinian Arab regions is economic. Do not take that to mean that there are no wealthy Palestinian Arabs, as there are many who have gotten quite wealthy often through providing the terrorists with their tools of their trade. Others were favored by the leadership, be they Hamas or Palestinian Authority (PA), and thus given special treatment which provided them with a steady and quite sufficient cash flow. This is much the same as it is in many places except theirs is on steroids. If the PA or Hamas are not getting their “rightful” cut of your business, then you will soon find yourself out of business and replaced with somebody more appreciative. In Israel there are stratification in wealth with some who have become extremely wealthy and those who are barely getting by. The housing makes this quite apparent. The main difference is in Israel the government is restricted by the rule of law under which the government and its officials are constrained to work. The Palestinian Arab governments are rule of man where the people with political power can use such unrestrained for their own purposes. In Israel everything lives within the same set of rules, not so much under the PA and even worse under Hamas. Your opportunities being greater in Israel is largely due to the fact that the government is constrained and not taking half of the profits and using it in a terror war against Israel. This also puts a damper on the Israeli economy as there is the added cost of providing security which requires a virtual war footing 24/7 and yet Israel has managed to be a successful economic nation.

 

There are a few things which Israelis suffer through silently, for the most part with this article an exception, which the Palestinian Arabs do not suffer of which the most obvious is the fear of being caught in a terrorist bombing. We hear some claiming that they have to fear being caught in a bombing raid from Israeli fighter jets, this we will get to in a later paragraph. Then there are terrorist attacks such as stabbings, vehicular ramming, shootings, stones slinging and other forms of attacks. Fortunately, these are a rarity in our little town, probably because we are considered to be in the boondocks and rarely merit attention, which can be a good thing. Still, when we take a trip to Haifa, our chance of being in a terror attack likely doubles, Tel Aviv it becomes four-fold and going to Jerusalem makes such nearly ten-fold a problem and we will not even talk of Hevron or visiting Joseph’s tomb or other places which require visiting around 2:00 AM with a full IDF escort platoon or company as if the visit is discovered, the visitors will require a military styled extraction as a riot with fire-bombs, rocks, bottles and anything else being hurled at the “invasive Jew.” Even visiting the Temple Mount, one runs a risk of having a riot break out or a shooting to occur threatening their safety. Visiting the Western Wall one can sometimes find that there are those from upon the Temple Mount hurling sometimes sizable rocks down on those praying below and this is a three to four story fall where the rocks pick up their share of momentum. All of these terrorist threats do not exist for the Palestinian Arabs as the Jews are not seeking to murder every last one of them as they are attempting, or at least desiring, for us.

 

About that threat of being caught in an Israeli airstrike, that is a fairly rare occurrence with the exception of when there is open warfare. If one reads the reports on the Israeli retaliatory strikes, they will find that any number of buildings have been hit and there are no or extremely few casualties and rarely fatalities resulting. The IDF is ordered to strike buildings known to be vacant and often when an Israeli strike has been provoked, Hamas or the PA make sure to keep their forces out of harms way. Further, Israel targets military forces and structures and attempt to avoid civilian structures with the exception of targeted strikes on leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups. When strikes are formulated by the Palestinian Arabs, they target Israeli civilians and often the most vulnerable, our children. One deadly example is pictured below where a mortar struck a kindergarten play area fortunately a mere hour before the children arrived. The attacks are often planned to coincide with the times when children are on their way to or from classes. Even the disjointed and varied schedule has little effect as they simply observe and choose the best times for killing the children to attack. Israeli strikes are usually executed in the early, early morning when there are few if any people who might be hurt or worse. That is a major difference. Israel attempts to minimize civilian casualties while the terror groups target Israeli civilians, which includes sometimes Israeli Arabs.

 

Remains of Tail Section of Mortar Striking Kindergarten Play Area

Remains of Tail Section of Mortar Striking Kindergarten Play Area

 

Mind you, there is one threat which actually targets our little town along with everywhere within Israel, and that is Hezballah. Hezballah is a terror army under direct control of Iran who also has provided them with weaponry including a large supply of rockets and missiles. The estimates range around one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles. The fortunate break, if it can be considered as one, is that as we are a smaller city and reside rather close to the Lebanon border, the rockets (rarely missiles as we do not have targets that important to the terrorists) they strike us with have smaller warheads, usually between fifteen and forty pounds of high explosive or incendiary agents (see tables below). Still, having three to five hundred of such projectiles striking in and around your town can make for a really bad day. Have it happen for ten, twenty or over thirty days in a row and life approaches unbearable. This is something which, believe it or not, you get accustomed to as just one additional potential threat which can ruin one’s life. We understand that the damage caused by these “smaller” warheads is nothing compared to four-hundred-pound warheads on their larger missiles. Still, one really does not wish to be anywhere close to a missile strike. These threats were much of the impetus for the development of Iron Dome which is capable of severely reducing the risk for Israelis being struck in any such attack. The problem should Iran order Hezballah to start launching their rockets and missiles in great numbers, when they are launching hundreds of these every hour, even the Iron Dome has its limitations.

 

Hezballah Rocket and Missile Types and Sizes

Hezballah Rocket and Missile Types and Sizes

 

There is one other threat which Israelis face that the Palestinian Arabs only need worry about misfires or faulty guidance systems, and that is the threat of an attack directly from Iran. Such an attack would most likely be targeting Tel Aviv metropolitan region, nowhere in Israel is all that far outside of this area and thus potentially could be struck. Iran would only be firing missiles and there is the potential for these warheads to carry anything from explosives and incendiaries to nerve agents, biological agents and other chemical agents. The nerve, chemical and biologic agents are all qualified as weapons of mass destruction and constitute war crimes should they be employed. Iran could not care less about such niceties. They would launch anything and everything if it might add to the body count in Israel. This includes nuclear warheads should Iran possess such weapons, and we fear they have a stock of nuclear warheads and potentially thermonuclear warheads. These missiles would need be intercepted by David’s Sling or the Arrow systems which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles, exactly the variety Iran would utilize in such an attack. Are they as effective as the Iron Dome? We need remember that we only know of the effectiveness of the Iron Dome because it has been tested in actual conditions during the last set of rocket barrages out of Gaza launched by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. We hope to never find out exactly how well the anti-ballistic missile systems work as we would just as soon avoid any situation under which they would be tested. The fact that the United States placed a THAAD system in Israel to provide further defensive capabilities should Iran attack Israel is another sign of how serious the situation has become. This was a precaution provided for these times when tensions between the United States and Iran are running high and keeping in mind that Iran has promised to destroy Israel within an hour after any American attack upon Iranian assets. This means that Iran already has missiles targeting Israel ready for launch as soon as the word is given. But you get used to such things.

 

Life in Israel is good and always a bit interesting. Fortunately, these interesting items mostly include trying something new for lunch, watching the local schools play sports, wondering if the movie will be any good, and other normal items. Then, in the back of your mind, you have these other little elements which cause an entirely different kind of excitement, the not so pleasant kind. We all know of the threat and sometimes even discuss what we expect, what we should expect and what we fear we need to expect. One-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles is a terrible and real threat. Hezballah is the largest and best armed non-state military. The reality is that Hezballah is to Lebanon what the IRGC is to Iran. So, the next time somebody complains about how the Palestinian Arabs have to pass through checkpoints, please inform them that Israelis also are required to pass through checkpoints as part of their everyday lives as well. When their complaint is that the Palestinian Arabs have such a poor economy compared to Israel, tell them it is their terrorist governments which steal most of the funds and take a lion’s share of the economy to operate their terrorist attacks and to line their own pockets. And lastly, when they claim that the Palestinian Arabs reside under constant threat of attack, please do not let that lie pass unchallenged as the attacks Israel directs are targeting buildings used by the terror outfits and Israel attempts to minimize casualties while the threats against Israelis are targeting the public at large. Finally, there is always the threat sitting on the northern border of Israel in the form of Hezballah and the threat off in the east known as Iran, and that last threat very probably is a nuclear armed state. The main difference is that the Israelis do not have a propaganda system in place around the world financed by billions of petro-dollars and supported on virtually every college and university campus in the forms of BDS and the plethora of Palestinian Arab rights groups and other groups disguised as human rights groups which are in reality anti-Israel teams used to attack any time Israel defends herself. These are the realities which are clouded in a storm of anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic hatred which is poisoning much of the Western World and already has inundated most of the third world nations. Strip away the lies and propaganda and the picture radically changes, but we do not expect such a miracle for the time being and still hold out hope the Messiach will soon arrive and all will be repaired one way or the other.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 4, 2019

Iran Edging Towards War with the World

 

The ramping is about to begin for earnest. In recent reports we find that, “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani issued an ultimatum Wednesday to the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, vowing to end all limitations on uranium enrichment if its demands are not met.” In related reports we find that the, “Islamic Republic had quadrupled its enrichment rate of low-enrichment uranium,” as well as that according to an unnamed source said who was quoted by Fars, “As the commission meeting in Vienna could not satisfy Iran’s just demands … Iran is determined to cut it commitments to the deal and the 300 kg enriched uranium limit will be soon breached.” We have our own opinions about the Iranian nuclear program, you know, the program which under the JCPOA they would monitor themselves, report to the United Nations and then the two could work together with assistance from the European Union to allow Iran to do as they please, manufacture nuclear weapons both in warheads and payloads for their several forms of delivery all while not breaking a stretched and warped JCPOA which will end up being even more porous than the original, the one President Trump withdrew from as it had insufficient restrictions and allowed Iran complete ability to become a nuclear armed nation within the decade. So, what to expect without getting lost in the minutia as that is what will be discussed, covered by the media and used as a distraction while Iran continues to arm herself.

 

Iran already had rudimentary nuclear devices which would serve as guidelines from where they could develop more powerful weapons and miniaturize them such that they would be deliverable atop their numerous ballistic missiles and especially atop their ICBM which has been in development for at least a decade. There are numerous different ballistic missiles which Iran manufactures (Pictured below). The ranges given are assuming a near maximum payload and can be increased by reducing the payload. That is why the miniaturization becomes so important, you get greater deliverable yields per pound or kilo and thus instead of their Simorgh missile being restricted to a range of 4000 to 6000 km, by decreasing the payload by 33% and the range increases to approximately 5500 to 8000 km which begins to bring some coastal areas of the United States within range from Tehran. Even fully loaded, that missile can readily strike every European capital city with ease. Add in the other means that Iran has proven to be capable of deploying, such as firing ballistic missiles from cargo-container ships which brings all but remote parts of Siberia within range as even the Shahab-3 has been fired from a cargo ship stationed in the Caspian Sea test firing over the western mountains of Iran striking a firing range in the southern end of the range in the high desert. These tests were fortunately caught and the trajectory tracked by surveillance satellites. Needless to comment, but a nuclear armed Iran places every capital city and most major metropolitan areas in the Western world and beyond within range of either their ground-based missiles or their cargo-container ship fired missiles making almost nobody safe from an Iranian threat carried out. This knowledge should be part of any calculations made concerning Iran.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges 

 

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories. 

 

 

This leads to the most vital question; would Iran initiate the use of nuclear weapons. One comment may provide an inside look at the Iranian outlook if war should break out. A senior Iranian parliamentarian threatened on Monday that Israel will be destroyed in half an hour if the United States attacks Iran, the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency reported, according to this source. So, Iran is willing to provoke a war with the United States and should the United States respond, they would attack Israel, a nation which is not a party to the conflict to that point. And there is more hidden in this threat to provoke widening any conflict by attacking the Jewish State. Iran would certainly attempt to utilize any response from Israel as a reason for the Islamic world to come to their aid in this jihad now about to be waged on Israel as well as the United States. But even this is not the end of what is intimated in this threat, and that will answer our question about Iran using nuclear weapons when initiating a conflict. The same source also reports that Mojtaba Zonnour, Chairman of Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, made the remarks in an interview with the Al-Alam TV network stating, “If the US attacks us, only half an hour will remain of Israel’s lifespan.” We also should remember that other Iranian officials have referred to Israel as a one or two bomb country inferring that with as few as two bombs, Israel could be, for all intents and purposes, destroyed as a nation leaving little of her population and infrastructure. Now, we know Israel is a rather small nation, about the size and shape of New Jersey, but it would take numerous salvos of conventional explosives in order to destroy Israel. On the other hand, with a nuclear weapon were to be dropped at the southern end of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region and another between Tel Aviv and Haifa, then a goodly part of Israel would face ruination. The next question would be whether or not Iran would bomb Jerusalem, the second largest and populous city, as this too would be necessary if Israel were to actually be destroyed. Still, to destroy Israel in such a manner, the only means would be to use nuclear weapons. These leads us to believe that Iranian leadership has little compunction about using nuclear weapons, and this should trouble everybody.

 

Thus far open warfare has been avoided, not that it has not come very close. There were the oil tankers which were attacked with mines and other means in the area around the Straits of Hormuz which did not bring any response from the United States. They could rightfully claim that they did not have conclusive evidence that the Iranians were involved. Then came the downing of the United States reconnaissance drone which was purportedly in international air space which was tied directly to Iran. President Trump initiated a response only to call off the strike and order the aircraft back to their stations on the aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea. There have been numerous discussions as to whether this made President Trump appear prudent or was a sign of weakness. Whichever appeals to you, it makes little difference until somebody acts upon such suppositions. Should Iran interpret their not being hit and the strike being called back and believe the United States is fearful of any war with Iran, then there is going to be a problem. From what we have read and feel, Iran will continue pushing until there does come a response from the United States and then they will run to the European Union and the United Nations screaming ‘Foul!’ At this point, the world will begin to take sides in this coming disaster. The initial breakdown will be evidenced by the General Assembly vote as to whether they back the Iranian complaint or side with the United States and their claims of Iranian provocations. Then things will develop as the United States, or at least President Trump, will insist on backing from the rest of NATO. We can pretty much guarantee that Turkey will claim that they are too involved in containing the Syrian violence to spare any forces. Of course, that is simply their excuse, the reality is that Turkey is no longer a supportive member of NATO and has decided to go along with the Islamic world and their eternal struggle against the nonbelievers.

 

The most frightening thing has also been commentary from Iranian leaders over the years who have stated things such as, “If the US attacks us, only half an hour will remain of Israel’s lifespan,” plus referring to the recall by President Trump of the strike force, “If they (the Americans) had predicted their attack would be successful, they would not have cancelled it and it would definitely have happened,” and lastly, the Supreme Leader has stated in the past that he would sacrifice Iran if it was required in order to destroy Israel. Once again, we have the immediate result of an Iranian first strike on Israel would destroy the nation. This kind of statement is being made with the knowledge that well over half of any initial set of missiles would be intercepted by the series of anti-missile platforms developed by Israel which include David’s Sling and the gamut of Arrow interceptors which are tied into the THAAD interceptor and over-the-horizon detection systems which President Trump ordered set up in Israel to assist with her defense against such attacks. But when Iran threatens to destroy Israel with two bombs, what they intend is they will launch some countable number of missiles, potentially nuclear tipped, and hope to get at least two through the Israeli defenses while Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will attempt to launch as many of their over one-hundred-fifty-thousand missiles and rockets in their combined inventory and be counting on such a barrage to destroy Israel. This, too, has been made questionable due to the Israeli Iron Dome interceptors but even they would be pushed beyond breaking point with such a number of targets to down. Perhaps, once such an exchange had taken place between Hezballah in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria aided by the Iranian IRGC forces in southern Syria probably all coordinated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad largely in Gaza with some potential for problems out of the Shomron areas of the Palestinian Authority, then Iran might launch a second series of missiles hoping that the majority of the Israeli interceptors were destroyed.

 

The real problem is that we are talking about how Iran would go about destroying Israel, but why would they take on an adversary which might well be willing to utterly destroy at least Tehran and Qom. Why Qom, I hear some ask. Qom is the holy city from whence the Twelfth Imam is said to arise from through some miraculous events as he has been in hiding, presumably in this well in Qom, and he will signal the beginning of Shiite Islam rising and not only becoming the strong horse and the main sect of Islam (it currently represents about 10% of Islam with the Sunni being almost all the remainder) and soon after to ruling the world. The one thing which would be assumed should an attack of missiles be launched against Israel by Iran, namely that it would be a WMD attack of either nuclear topped missiles or warheads carrying chemical agents. Any Israeli response to a WMD attack is well known, Israel will return in kind meaning Israel will use WMDs which means nuclear missiles. The reality is that any actual Iranian missile launch from their areas in Iran, Syria or Iraq would likely be initiated with the launching of likely hundreds of missiles towards Israel. Israel cannot be expected to wait and see how many were intercepted and what were the nature of the ones which detonated within Israel before responding. Israel has about eight to ten minutes to decide whether or not to respond and exactly how Israel will respond if they decide to do so. That does not leave any time for consultations and is the kind of decision which would be laid primarily in the lap of the Prime Minister. With such a time limit before the missiles strike, one need figure that of those eight to ten minutes after detection, five would be required to order, program and launch any response. That leaves time for what would be the toughest four-minute decision in Bibi Netanyahu or any Israeli Prime Minister’s time in office. Fortunately, that decision would never be placed in our hands for the foreseeable future. Israel almost naturally must assume that any Iranian missile launch would be largely made up of WMDs, probably both nuclear and chemical agent warheads would be employed.

 

Further, Israel is not likely to be their only target launched upon as we can expect many of the Gulf States, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and potentially even Egypt. Iran has plans for their taking of the Saudi Arabian oil fields along with the Gulf States and Kuwait as well as taking control of Mecca and Medina. They believe that by doing so they will have destroyed the Saudi Royal family and much of the Sunni world’s leadership leaving the Islamic world for the taking. Despite the news coverage stressing everything Israel launched and does militarily while playing down the responses from the Saudis and their allies; President Trump will be blamed for not attacking Iran, attacking Iran too forcefully, attacking Iran too anemically, for using weapons systems which were too expensive when less measures were available, using WMDs, not using WMDs or just about anything else one can imagine. We cannot leave out the howling, wringing of hands, crocodile tears and other news anchor antics should a single United States soldier be injured or, heavens forbid, killed. We are not sure where the concept came that wars can be fought without casualties, but that is a very dangerous concept. The best bet, as the WOPR computer system from the movie “War Games” stated after doing some deep thinking, “Strange Game. The only winning move is not to play.” Well, we pray that nobody decides to initiate this strange game where the only winning move is not starting something which others are assured of completing.

 

War Games WOPR Computer

War Games WOPR Computer 

 

Beyond the Cusp

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