Beyond the Cusp

June 24, 2019

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Dumps President Trump via Insults

 

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that Khamenei finds President Trump so inferior to himself and refuses to stoop so low as to even exchange messages with Trump. Such style commentary was all part of a video of their meeting (which can be viewed below). Khamenei also told Abe that the United States and President Trump are not capable of conducting fair negotiations with Iran. In further commentary they discussed about the Iranian problems and how they are beyond any ability to be resolved through negotiations with the United States. He also claimed that United States Presidents over the last forty years have been attempting in vain to destroy the Islamic ruling regime without success and that the United States is incapable of destroying Iran. Khamenei spoke about President Trump with disdain in his words and insult in his intent. Khamenei also insulted the United States as not only being incapable of solving the problems in Iran, but history has shown the United States incapable of harming Iran and incapable of causing regime change. He accused the United States generally and President Trump specifically as being incapable of destroying Iran and of the United States inability for bringing about regime change.

 

 

Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is only the second Islamic leader of Iran following the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Khamenei presents a problem for the world and the world needs to treat this problem with the necessary attention to details such that whenever Khamenei threatens striking at another country just to damage the United States that he means to attack Israel. Attacking Israel is a known position which Iran will employ similarly to the actions by Saddam Hussein had done except Khamenei intends to only attack Israel and forces allied to the United States in the region during the campaign. Iran will make good on this threat and would largely place their emphasis on the destruction of Israel, and according to Ayatollah Khamenei, should all of Iran be destroyed in the process, that is an acceptable price which he is willing to pay provided Israel is destroyed in the process. The Iranian Leader has complete faith in the Quran and that everything written in the Quran will come true but only when there has been initiated here a great conflagration which he believes is Iran’s destiny to fulfill the needed violence part of the equation. This might perhaps be the reason for the Iranian partial takeover of Iraq, joining the civil wars in Yemen and Syria, sending a fleet of war ship into the North Atlantic Ocean along the eastern coast of the United States and supports Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. Iran has as their initial move towards hegemony over MENA nations (Middle East and North Africa) starting with the Middle East and specifically Israel and Saudi Arabia, the two main adversaries. The main aims for attacking Saudi Arabia along with the Gulf States is to acquire the oil fields plus take both of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Once they have conquered these regions, then they will be ready to proclaim that Shiite Islam is superior to Sunni Islam and encourage the remainder of the MENA states to adopt Shia Islam leaving Shiite Islam. Once they consolidate the Islamic nations of MENA under Iranian rule, they consolidate their great conquest and unification of the Islamic Arab world. After this is probably when they will act against Israel.

 

Grand Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei

Grand Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei

 

As we have stated numerous times, Iran is already a nuclear armed state. It is also very likely that they have miniaturized their nuclear weapons making them into warheads atop ballistic missiles. Despite what the news reports have been chanting as their new mantra, Iran not only has nuclear warheads, they have ballistic missiles capable of striking anywhere on the earth surface (chart below). It would actually surprise us here at BTC if it turns out that Iran has been unable to miniaturize a thermonuclear (hydrogen bomb) device making it usable atop most of their ballistic missiles. This promise that Iran will never become a nuclear armed state in the future is all part of the big lie. It technically is true because Iran became a nuclear state with weapons et al some time ago and has been working at manufacture in a less time-consuming means. Thermonuclear devices are not exactly suitable for an assembly line as were the Model T Fords but is more like a super car which takes attention to detail above and beyond all norms. They are similar to hospital and medical equipment in that everything needs to be perfect before the job is completed successfully. In some jobs, perfection is not your goal, it is part of your job description. Such is the assembly of most nuclear weapons though certain stages are fully automated for the safety of the workers as these parts are highly radioactive and could easily prove fatal if one were exposed for a prolonged period. The Iranian Ayatollahs, Imams and members of the IRGC are all desirous of the great conflagration which precedes the coming of the Twelfth Imam and these are groups which would gladly work towards causing such a world-wide conflagration. They do not care how many eggs they are going to break nor how large an omelet it will take for their Imam to return and lead them to world conquest. Whatever they believe will be required for the arrival of their Twelfth Imam, we know that the world is unable of paying such a price. What Western leaders need to understand is simply the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the result of Quranic interpretation.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

Their Quranic interpretation gives them a very exact leadership topography of which he is at the pinnacle. The entirety of Islam are occupying the next several levels and, in the end, the Jewish People and their state are at the very bottom. What makes Israel carry the importance it appears to over such a small piece of land. The largest problem on Khamenei’s mind is becoming the leader of the majority of Muslims. Currently, the Shiites constitute ten percent of the totality of Muslims with Sunni holding almost the rest. But some do claim that the believers of Islam follow the strongest horse, and Khamenei intends to prove he is that horse. This would require his taking Mecca and Medina, and while there, the oil fields where most of the Shiites currently reside. This has a very direct interception by the United States and a direct conflict between the two. Khamenei believes that he would win any war with the United States even if it cost all of Iran. His would be in a better place even if the predictable counter strike took him and those close by. Should such lead to Islam becoming imposed on the entire world. There exists a problem called Israel. Islam was the replacement correcting Christianity who were the correction of the Jews. When the Jews re-established their homeland, Israel, this challenged the veracity of both religions. The West got over it mostly and took it as a sign, don’t ask. But following the Quran to its final end, there you find Khamenei. He truly believes that he is the one who will bring the Twelfth Imam and the age of Islam.

 

What we concluded from the video and Khamenei’s words was here is a man who actually believes he is superior to President Trump and would not repeat in conducting talks with President Trump or the United States. He will probably try to outlast President Trump and wait for the next Democrat to be elected President fully expecting they will perform for the Iranian Supreme Leader exactly as he would have them do. He is likely expecting another President Obama such that he will receive money for nothing and gain land for free. He is probably correct that the sanctions would be lifted and free access to European markets for selling and buying. It is obvious that Khamenei honestly believes that the United States has no authority to say whether other countries should or should not have nuclear weapons while continuing to have a stockpile of such weapons themselves. This is a man who fully believes that there will be a day coming very soon when Shiite Islam will rule the planet. Khamenei expects the Twelfth Imam to climb from his hidden place in a well in Qom and lead the forces of Shiite Islam to rule over the entre world. Khamenei likely believes that his position is of such a magnitude placing all the world leaders beneath him and that they should feel honored to be permitted in his presence. This is a leader who completely believes the story line that theirs is the world which is nearing being ripe for harvest by the superior forces of the world, those of Iran and the Shiite Islamic belief system. Khamenei is being completely honest when he states his belief, belief being the critical thought, that President Trump is a lesser person with a low stature making President Donald Trump coming from such low standards and being so inferior in all ways making him one whose presence would soil Khamenei thus he will refuse meetings proposed by Trump or having anything to do with President Trump.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 10, 2019

Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?

 

We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.

 

So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.

 

Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.

 

Little Boy Gun Type Atomic Bomb

 

The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.

 

 

We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 22, 2019

Iranian Threats Must be Taken Deadly Seriously

 

Many in the Western World will claim that we should take threats made by Iran with a large measure of salt. Their reasoning is that no sane leader would risk such destruction upon their nation, its infrastructure and especially its people. We could not argue with this reasoning as no sane leader would risk such destruction. There are two slight problems with this reasoning as it has been applied to Iran. First is that the Ayatollahs, especially the most important Ayatollah, the Supreme Leader, do not believe that the United States would risk war with Iran because they believe they hold the same belief that President Trump is bluffing and would not risk the destruction Iran believes they could inflict upon the United States. This brings us to something which is necessary for going any further in this standoff review.

 

First, we will look at the United States and what they might be capable of inflicting upon Iran. The United States has replaced the aircraft carrier group in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, as the former group had been rotated to their home port, plus another carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean in addition to the fleet normally in the Mediterranean. Further, the United States has repositioned an entire B-52 Wing stationed in the region in the American base in Qatar. The aircraft carrier group was already scheduled for positioning and is not an additional deployment and as thus is merely part of the rotation of naval forces. The main additional threat is the B-52 Wing which provides some heavy bombers which are nuclear capable and can also carry the MOAB (Massive Ordinance Air Blast) nicknamed the Mother of all Bombs due to its size. This ordinance is a supersized Daisey Cutter and has an equivalence of eleven tons TNT forming a blast radius of one mile in every direction from the detonation point. Even using normative bombs, the B-52 specialty is performing what is called carpet bombing destroying large swaths of a region the plane overflies. The additional item is the B-52’s fly in formations in which one of the aircraft is what is called an electronics plane which specializes in jamming radars, giving false radar returns of additional B-52 Wings miles away from the actual group, diverting anti-aircraft missiles of numerous varieties and other electronic means for defending the wing. The naval forces America has within range of Iran includes a number of missile cruisers and frigates which have numerous varieties of missiles and warheads including nuclear warheads. But all of these are items the Iranians are fully aware but one has to wonder what the United States has in the region which Iran does not have when forming their equation. With any naval fleet there are some selection of submarines stationed within range of the fleet and even within the fleet to augment their abilities. There could be attack submarines which could assist with intercepting ships, including fast ships, and also could pass discreetly into the Persian Gulf. Then there is a possibility of submarines carrying missiles including what are called Boomers which carry nuclear missiles. Between the numerous assets the United States has advertised they have placed in the regions around Iran are sufficient to eradicate targets throughout Iran from specific targets to entire metropolitan regions and do so with conventional weapons. We are taking it on faith that the United States would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons except under the most serious of provocations.

 

Now, for the Iranian side of the equation which is less well defined. There is one wild card in the Iranian equation which is totally dependent upon the current location of the fleet they claimed to have deployed for stationing in the western region of the North Atlantic Ocean specifically to situate itself along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Of course, Iran has not stated that they intend to attack the United States mainland but has threatened the American naval assets in their region. The main threat coming from the Iranians is that should they come under attack, any attack by any country, they will completely destroy Israel immediately thereafter. Their threats have included the intent to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction such as biological or chemical weapons. Iran would not need to launch a single missile, launch aircraft to bomb Israel, they simply can send the order to their terror forces in the region to launch all-out attacks on Israel and sit back and watch. So, what are the forces and what are their weapons they might use. The one many people are already familiar with are Islamic Jihad, a direct arm of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), as well as Hamas to attack Israel with various rockets which are capable of striking near Jerusalem and the entirety of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region all the way to Haifa in the north and possibly bring down some of the skyscrapers in the center of Tel Aviv all from Gaza. That would likely be the Iranian opening strike in order to entangle Israel and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) in Gaza in the south. Then, after two or three days waiting for the IDF to be forced to become fully involved with the Iranian terror extension in Gaza. Then Iran would unleash their main force in the region out of Syria and Lebanon backed by whatever IRGC forces they might have stationed in Syria, that being Hezballah. Hezballah has approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and ranges. Their largest can strike all of Israel and beyond with very large warheads including biological and chemical warheads and, if they have them, nuclear warheads (see map below).

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah also has access to the entirety of the Lebanese military weapons. These weapons include numerous Russian tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles as well as American Abrams Main Battle Tanks, armored vehicles and helicopters as well as whatever Iran has been capable of smuggling to the Hezballah terrorist army, and it is an army, make no mistake about that. Additionally, Hezballah has dug an unknown number of tunnels under the Israeli border to use as an intricate part of their invasion plans in addition to the tunnels and bunkers they have spread over southern Lebanon across the entirety of Lebanon below the Litany River. Any assault by Hezballah would initially be a massive firing of rockets with the hope that when Israeli Air Force arrives to end the barrage that they will be able to use the anti-aircraft missiles they probably possess. There have been rumors that Hezballah has been equipped with the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems as well as shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles such as MANPADS and Stinger Missiles. At some point the Hezballah Army and the IDF would engage. The plan from Iran is that after forcing the IDF to engage with Islamic Jihad and Hamas and other terrorist groups operating in Gaza, then Israel would not have top-line elite forces left to engage their main force from in Lebanon supported out of Syria. Their thinking may or may not be valid. That may be mistaken as Israel could alter their normal division of forces and use weapons which Israel has normally deployed. Then again, Israel has not been required to engage with Gaza and Hezballah at the same time. There is one means to which Israel could resort which she normally does not use. No, we are not talking about nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction. Israel also has missiles, very accurate missiles with various warheads. What kinds of warheads? The normal answer to this question is, if we told you we would have to kill you, but that is too trite. Israel has the normal range of warheads of any first-world nations which include EMP (both nuclear and conventional), high explosive, incendiary, fuel-air (thermobaric) and various others including nuclear should such an exchange become necessary.

 

But what else would such an attack cause? Israel has stated that should Hezballah attack that Iran would not be spared. Iran definitely has S-300 and potentially has S-400 Russian anti-aircraft and missile systems. How sophisticated are the Israeli missiles? We know they are accurate and that they include advanced cruise missiles but the cruise missiles would require being launched from aircraft or naval vessels closer to Iran to be within their range. Israeli aircraft are almost exclusively fighter jets whose range would not permit any extended time over targets in order to reach Iran unless they were granted landing rights from a nation between Israel and Iran. Releasing the name of any Arab or Islamic nation which might have agreed to give Israeli fighters landing rights if necessary was the method by which President Obama kept Israel from inhibiting the Iranian production of nuclear weapons. Things have changed, or so we are led to believe. That will remain to be seen as time reveals what will become history.

 

What is frightening for Israelis, Iranians and potentially far beyond even to the United States is what follows a war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. Such a war would immediately escalate to include Israel almost immediately. The entirety of the Israeli anti-missile systems would be tested to or beyond its ability, we can merely pray that it is up to the task as Iran has intimated that she would launch as many nuclear tipped missiles as it would take to get at least two of them through the Israeli defenses as they believe that would be sufficient to completely wipe Israel from the map. This begs the question as to exactly what it would take to prove that Iran had launched a nuclear tipped missile at Israel simply from the remains of the successful interception of such a missile. Would sufficient crucial pieces remain which could be used to prove such a case? Would anybody actually believe any proof Israel provided? What would result from such an exchange?

 

Well, the answer is that nothing would change and Iran would not be decimated while Israel might remain. So, for argument’s sake we will assume Israel also survives any such conflict. The very first thing would be the condemnation of the United Nations General Assembly of Israel demanding that Israel cease their hostile and unprovoked attacks. Then would come the various agencies of the United Nations followed by a litany of nations largely from the Group of 77, the coalition of one-hundred-thirty-four developing nations which have mostly followed the Arab and Muslim worlds blindly and thus will gleefully condemn Israel and exonerate Iran and turn on the United States if given any chance to do so. The chance that such a conflict would widen into a greater conflagration is actually small. There exists a possible path should Russia get involved and side with Iran. First thing is that Russia and Iran (Persia) have a long and violent history of ill wills. Russia is favorable to Israel as first, there are a large number of Russians in Israel, second, they admire what Israel has accomplished and third, Russia wants no part of a conflict with any nuclear capable nation with advanced missiles and pinpoint guidance systems. Fortunately, the majority of the Arab world being Sunni Muslims and untrusting of Persian, especially when they are Shiite, will simply wait any war involving Iran out unless attacked by Iran. We can assume that any nation which may end up fighting Iran will not be concerned with engaging the Arabs world as well. So, as long as Russia stands aside there will be little chance of this war widening beyond Iran, the United States and Israel. Nobody else wishes to have a dog in this fight and to be honest, Israel would love nothing more than to sit any and all future wars out.

 

 

The best solution to this would be the United States and Iran talking and making a new deal, but there has been some bad blood from the United States withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) and demanding a renegotiation in which the terms would be far less advantageous for Iran. The Ayatollahs, specifically Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei who is the one who believes he got sand kicked into his face by President Donald Trump. This is something that Supreme Leaders, Kings, Emperors and other dictators take very badly and tend to react violently. We may find the answer as to whether the Supreme Leader Khamenei was serious about sacrificing the people and nation of Iran in order to destroy Israel and the United States or was he blowing smoke to try and appear more powerful. Iran is rated as the fourteenth most powerful military with Israel two spaces behind at sixteenth. Of course, Russia is rates second, China third and the United States was first, of course. The pivotal individual in this entire imbroglio is the Iranian Supreme Leader and those with influence in his decision-making processes. This includes the Council of Experts, a group of senior Imams, Ayatollahs, who are responsible for appointing Supreme Leaders and advising them, the Iranian President and their Parliament, though the elected individuals have far less input than the Ayatollahs as they are merely elected by the people, even though the Assembly of Experts also decide who is permitted to run for office. In the end, it will be the top Ayatollahs who will be more likely to simply agree with whatever the Supreme Leader decides. The problem is he is the one who likely feels he has been insulted directly by President Trump. There may be an attack upon the United States naval forces which will lead to a serious conflagration which we can only hope never does include nuclear weapons, no matter whose weapons they may be. In the end, it will be what Iran desires, peace or war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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