Beyond the Cusp

December 13, 2013

The Best Guess of How Will the World React to a Nuclear Iran?

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According to many experts, both lauded and the self-described varieties, Iran has been given exactly enough time to be able to build and test a nuclear weapon within the six months they have been granted by the deal made with the P5+1 in the Geneva negotiations. Many claim that Iran will attain breakout ability within four months and define breakout as the production of a nuclear weapon would only take six weeks to gather the fissile materials and fashion a nuclear device that can be tested. Others have claimed that the six months is insufficient time for Iran to make a functional, deliverable weapon and they dismiss any significance to the testing of a nuclear devise as unimportant as there is no need to be concerned as long as Iran has not developed a deliverable weapon by normally considered systems. Personally, I would consider an Iranian device, no matter how crudely assembled or bulky and completely impossible to mount on a ballistic missile of any range and payload capability or fit within the bay of even the largest bombers, as a danger at least to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Israel, and Eastern Europe as no matter the size of the nuclear fissionable device it would be deliverable hidden within a truck which was described as a large transit truck or construction vehicle such as a concrete mixer truck and transited overland. But all that aside, we have recently learned, the deal with Iran has not actually been finalized and is not yet ready to be applicable requiring more discussion, debate and negotiations before any application date can be set. Put in plain language this means that the presumption that the deal covers the next six months is erroneous as simply completing the steps might take a year or more and then the six months would begin.

 

What is even more alarming is that until the deal has been finalized and the date set and passed implementing the deal, Iran will be permitted to continue spinning their centrifuges, priming the Arak heavy water reactor and, if given sufficient time before implementation, starting the reactor having it produce plutonium which grants Iran a second route to nuclear weapon. Actually, the limbo which currently has been produced by the state of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran there are no inspections, either scheduled or surprise spot checks, no inspections or limits on plutonium production once Arak is on line, retaining all of the already enriched to twenty percent uranium while continuing to produce stocks of three to five percent enriched uranium and even additional twenty percent enriched uranium. There is nothing to prevent Iran from enriching uranium to weapons grade level of over ninety percent or even actually producing a nuclear device which technically a real nuclear weapon. The gaming of the negotiation by Iran are working so beautifully and efficiently when viewed from the Iranian side that the Western powers have negotiated themselves willingly into a corner whose predicament will be near impossible to work around should Iran act to extend the negotiations putting off the execution of the deal while continuing their efforts toward manufacturing not just a device to test but a deliverable nuclear weapon.

 

Once Iran has proven nuclear weapons capability, what exactly might they choose to do and how will the western world in particular and the entire world react to any Iranian actions. A few days ago we posted an <a href=https://beyondthecusp.wordpress.com/2013/12/09/northeastern-saudi-and-eastern-gulf-oil-fields-the-new-sudetenland/>article</a> in which it was described a scenario trying to explain what actions Iran might take should they decide to actually use a nuclear weapon with which to push their designs through terrorism, civil upheavals coordinated with Shiite Muslims residing in targeted nations as a fifth column. There is another path which Iran might choose to achieve their desired place as a world power leading the Muslim world and having direct abilities to affect the rest of the world eventually being the head of a caliphate which rules the entirety of the Earth. Their first step would be to take the guiding leadership of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) taking control over setting the price of oil and the production limits for the world. To guarantee that these controls are kept and remain unchallenged by other oil producing nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other nations neighboring or within the established orb of Iranian influence, they might threaten those nations closest to them with military action to keep them under their control. The Iranians would use their controlling influence over oil prices and production they would amass sufficient funds for themselves to finance terrorism and revolutions worldwide and use such unrest as a condition for their extending their control promising to end the terrorism. This, of course, would be an attainable result by Iran to grant any nation which succumbed and surrendered control to them as they would be the originating source of that terrorism. By using a stick and carrot approach with the stick being the terrorism fomented by Iran on their target society, the target nations or regions, and the protection and guarantees by Iran for saving the target nation from the terror as the carrot, the Iranians could work the same game as the Nazis used to gain their initial foothold in Czechoslovakia which enabled their conquest of the nation after they were betrayed by their stronger allies Britain and France who had promised in treaties to come to Czechoslovakia’s aid if they were to come under attack.

 

Already the Iranians have extended their circle of control and influence to include Syria and Lebanon. Iran also has some influence over the Gaza terror sponsors of Hamas by controlling a sizeable portion of their financing. Since the United States were unable to negotiate a treaty that would have allowed their troops to remain in Iraq, the Iranians have established close friendly terms with the Shiite rulers of Iraq. Iran probably had much to do with the purging of many of the highest ranking Sunni Iraqis serving in the government which has led to the increasing violence and the return of al-Qaeda. The situation with Iran subjugating and persecuting Sunnis, especially in Iraq, has been so distressing to the Sunni community that al-Qaeda has declared a fatwa demanding that their membership go on a genocidal offensive murdering every Shiite they meet. There are claims that this fatwa only applies to the forces fighting against Syrian President Assad and Hezballah and those fighting in Iraq against the Shiite controlled Iraqi government. As it has been proven beyond any doubt that Iran has been one of, if not the, leading nations perpetrating terrorism throughout the world in order to serve their causes and weaken those whom the Iranians believe they may need to defeat at some point in the future. Of course this includes both Israel and the United States though neither of these nations will be at the very top of the list as Iran will initially target the oil fields closest to their borders or the governments which rule over them. Furthermore, Iran with nuclear weapons will act similarly as has North Korea and threaten wars and nuclear attacks unless financial and other aid is not immediately provided. As insane as it may first appear, the United States and Europe have been supplying North Korea with funds, food, medical assistance and other necessities and some luxuries with it being increased, or minimally reestablished at previously higher levels as their response to North Korean blackmail ever since their first nuclear tests. There is a similar history being played with Pakistan as they too have used their nuclear weapons expertise threatening to give crucial assistance and information to other nations who may be seeking to become nuclear powers as well. The Pakistani threat is heeded as most remember the selling of nuclear information by Dr. A. Q. Khan, a Pakistani who was a crucial physicist in the Pakistani nuclear weapons drive and the central figure in a nuclear weapons plans and secrets for sale which startled the Western powers when his actions became known. Basically, take anything ever perpetrated by any proliferating nuclear weapons capable country and you would have the entire scene of what mischief is available to Iran once they have tested a nuclear device, and let us assure you that the realizations are not pretty.

 

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December 9, 2013

Northeastern Saudi and Eastern Gulf Oil Fields the New Sudetenland

Once Iran has successfully attained their nuclear weapons credentials the world will begin to see their long-term plans. The presumption that first thing Iran will do once they have a deliverable nuclear weapon is attack Israel is highly doubtful. One reason is that the leadership uses the Israel issue to explain away any difficulties experienced by their society by claiming that it is a result of evil perpetrated by the Zionists. The Iranian threats against America are equally simply propaganda they feed the people to give them an external target.  Iran also knows that if they should attack either Israel or the United States that the price they would pay would be beyond anything their society could survive. Even if an Iranian attack on Israel was completely successful it would not prevent a return strike even if that strike had to originate from Israeli submarines weeks later or even months later, that strike would still decimate Iran. Any retaliation from the United States after an Iranian attack, well, I doubt there needs to be any comment on the ferocity with which the United States would respond if they were hit in numerous locations by an Iranian nuclear first strike. So, that leaves the question that if Iran is not developing a nuclear threat capability for Israel or the United States, then why go through all the sanctions and other difficulties as well as the expense of the program itself.

 

Iran is not seeking a nuclear arsenal with which to dominate the world, at least not initially, and they are not seeking to destroy the United States or Israel, but they do want to make anybody who might intervene on the real Iranian plans to have the doubt of attacking a nuclear armed nation to consider before they move to control the Middle East and its oil reserves. The first target the Iranians would most likely make some inroads upon would be the nations along the eastern rim of the Saudi Peninsula, especially those with sizeable Shiite populations. Those would include Bahrain with a population that is 70% Shiite, Kuwait with a population that is 25% Shiite, United Arab Emirates with a population approaching 20% Shiite and lastly the northeastern oil fields of Saudi Arabia where the majority of Saudi Shiites reside and where they are a clear majority. There could potentially be calls from the Shiite populations within these areas for their repatriation with Shiite Iran much the same as was done by the Sudetenland and their repatriation into Nazi Germany after the signing of the Munich Agreement of 1938 by which France and Britain sacrificed northern Czechoslovakia to placate Hitler and presumably forgo any possibility of a war. The same eventuality will result if the Western allies turn their backs on Saudi Arabia and the other nations which might come under threat from Iran and allow these lands to be sacrificed giving in to Iran simply to avoid testing a nuclear power and presumably avoid a very horrid war. The result would be that by handing Iran control over the vast majority of the Middle East oil reserves would result in energy blackmail being the new Iranian economic weapon through which they would seek hegemony over an ever increasing area of the world. Eventually their appetite would become obviously insatiable and the continued surrendering to their demand unsustainable thus eventually leading to war but where the Iranians would possesses a far greater ability and strength due to the weakness shown by mostly the Western powers who were doing whatever they could to avoid that very same war when it was easily winnable. This result is only achievable in a case where the United States is in an isolationist mode or a period of weakness where the President has taken a position of avoiding any foreign entanglements and has defaulted on the United States presumed responsibility to act as the leader of the free world. What it would take is an American President who would solely lead from behind and allow others to take the initiative while the United States sat on the sidelines and watched.

 

This exact scenario would explain why the Iranians were willing to suffer the sanctions no matter the difficulties even to an extreme level simply in order to complete their nuclear weapons program before the United States changed its people in the leadership of the country. The reason they were able to come and negotiate the recent agreement were twofold, first they knew that with the reelection of President Obama they had another four years of an American military superpower in remission and unlikely to interfere with any Iranian plans and secondly they also knew that President Obama wanted an agreement which would allow him to concentrate fully on his Administration’s primary areas of concern, the fundamental transformation of the United States into just another overstretched, overtaxed, over-indebted socialist nation which is undistinguishable from any nation in the European Union. The final steps are in the works with the soon to be offered solution to the failure that is Obamacare, a single payer government healthcare system along with the other final touches which include a higher than reasonable minimum wage (also called a living wage), guaranteed minimum salary even for those who are unemployed through permanent unemployment insurance and other social safety nets, a scaled down military which is understaffed, undertrained, and underfunded making it unable to do more than patrol the waters and skies domestically and have virtually zero projection of force capabilities. Iran has seen what the United States is transforming into and they are counting of just this transformation to allow them to step up in the not so distant future and become a world power equal or better equipped than the United States and with more energy reserves after annexing the Saudi Arabian oilfields and with only China as a foreseeable equal. Iran will first try to become the superpower of the Muslim World, then of the Middle East and North Africa, then of everything west of China and eventually vying for hegemony of the Americas. This sounds preposterous but probably so did a nuclear powered North Korea and next a nuclear armed Iran, who or what next is anybody’s guess. Should Saudi Arabia be allocated a nuclear deterrent by Pakistan, as is their informal agreement under which the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear weapons program after India tested their initial nuclear weapon, then the entire shooting match between Iran and Saudi Arabia could become the stage for a truly frightening game of brinkmanship with both sides trying to make the other blink, and then hold on to your hats. That has the potential of turning very ugly very fast and the repercussions are as unpredictable as they can get. Perhaps bowing to Iran as was the case in the recent Geneva agreement was the fateful rolling of the dice and one is still spinning while the other came up a one, a second one means snake-eyes, everybody loses.

 

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