Beyond the Cusp

September 17, 2018

And We Predicted It With Picture to Boot

 

We know, we predicted what? Well, the closure of the PLO Consulate in Washington D.C. is what we predicted, well, our picture did. It was our article “Add the PLO to President Trump’s Dump List” in which the picture below was our main graphic. It is a picture of the PLO Washington D.C. Consulate; they like to refer to it as their Embassy, with a picture of President Trump superimposed with a “Sorry We’re Closed” sign like the one a diner might have. We had warned in that article that playing hardball with President Trump when you are holding only a pure bluff of a poker hand and he is holding the rest of the deck, that this may not be the brightest tactic. We predicted any number of other items and gave President Trump one very simple piece of advice, if he really desires being the President who untied the Gordian Knot of the Arab-Israel conflict, then he should plan on completing his efforts in his first term. Looking at his actions, he may have read our article, or some low level functionary had it as part of his assignment to research the Middle East, as he has taken steps in the past two months to completely alter the field of play and redefined some of the most precious tools which Mahmoud Abbas always trotted out as spoilers and removed them from any equation. Now, at long last, it is appearing that Mahmoud Abbas is soon to be removed from the equation if he has not actually been removed already. I guess our warning now should be to the King of Jordan warning him that he is probably just as replaceable as Mahmoud Abbas, and he should meter his attitudes accordingly if he is at all intelligent. We would guess that the King of Jordan may test President Trump initially and probably become more obliging just in time to remain the King of a far smaller Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs getting their state in the rest of Jordan with those residing in the Shomron being permitted, actually encouraged, to relocate or remain as resident aliens under what will basically be Israeli rule.

 

Coming Soon if Abbas Refuses Trump Again

Coming Soon if Abbas Refuses Trump Again

 

Now to elaborate. What we see coming will leave Mahmoud Abbas retiring somewhere which is willing to take him and his billions of Euros. The same will go for many of the top Palestinian Arab leadership and terror structure. The Arabs in the Shomron (West Bank if you prefer the Jordanian name) will be permitted to remain where they are or relocate to places in Jordan which will be built for them in record time. Entire cities will be constructed and new apartments and potential other incentives and these may even become or be located around Qualified Industrial Zones short version is (QIZ) which are areas within Jordan where Israeli companies are permitted to open factories (to save on labor costs) and then export goods to the United States free of tariffs thanks to President Clinton issued a Presidential Proclamation (No. 6955) on November 13, 1996. The lure of employment and a brand new apartment, especially as the employment will pay higher than average wages, may prove sufficient to take care of those seeking a real future for their families completely distant from any terrorism or living under a kleptocracy. There will be some problems no matter how great a deal is applied because this is the Middle East, nothing goes exactly as planned. More on that in a moment, meanwhile, President Trump did take the PLO, Fatah, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas and UNRWA and place them all together inside a trashcan which he is very close to placing at the curb for pick-up. This was absolute brilliance upon President Trump’s behalf, and not just because it was exactly what we had stated back in January, though that does not hurt. Trump apparently has little if any concern as to with whom he will end up making his deal, just as long as his deal gets made.

 

What is going to happen next? Well, that depends on if you mean what will happen next of consequence or not of any consequence. Even at this late date, Mahmoud Abbas will continue to believe that if he just continues to refuse everything out of President Trump and the members of his team, that the European Union, numerous European nations, the United Nations and who knows who else will back his demands to the very end no matter what because this is how it has always worked. Trump really does not mean any of this, he is just pacifying the Jews in the United States. We have some bad news for Abbas, very little concerning Israel matters to far too many Jews and this is especially true about the younger generations. As far as the remainder of the list Abbas believes will back him, they will not be worth a plug nickel when the final deal is put in place. The King of Jordan, according to the last things we have seen, was backing Mahmoud Abbas and trashing President Trump. We hope he is aware that there is a group which is supposedly willing to work peaceably with Israel while ruling the Palestinian Arabs and he has a group of people all waiting to move to Amman and take control of Jordan. Of course, it would not be that easy, as the King has a loyal military behind him. The reality is if King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein has an ounce of common sense, then he will work with President Trump to accomplish whatever is required and simply take it at face value and take it like a man and not go screaming about how this is totally unacceptable. President Trump has had just about all he is going to take from pompous fools who think they are the top banana in this mix. President Trump is the eight-hundred pound gorilla in this arrangement and what he wants is what will come to pass. This concept of a working relationship where Israel works with Jordan to provide governance for the Palestinian Arabs which will actually allow them to have a life and not have everything stolen by those holding power has its plusses and its negatives. The main plus is the fact that it sidelines Mahmoud Abbas and his merry band of terrorists. The other plus is actually for Jordan in that if they can find the means to work with Israel, they will have an improved economy and many potential other benefits with time. The negatives is we are working with a group who still believe that Taqiyya is a central part of their religion and is to be used in every negotiation with those not of Islam. Attempting to get one over on President Trump did not work very will for Mahmoud Abbas and it will not ingratiate the King of Jordan with the American President. The other negatives become apparent down the road when there is a more accommodating President ready to insist Israel came by any settlement through dishonesty and attempt to undo and backtrack the solution which President Trump might actually reach. That will always be the main problem to any deal reached in this near future.

 

President Trump is determined to reach a deal if for no other reason than he promised he would do exactly that. From what we have witnessed of President Trump is that he really does not care about the niceties, does not care too much about the rules, will do whatever is required to accomplish those items he promised in his campaign and lastly is applying an actual managerial approach to being President. Of course, he has to include the Congress which had Democrats who are doing everything they can to prevent his accomplishing anything and the Republicans often appear to be working with the Democrats though there are some Republicans who were with Trump as he was their party’s President and others have come around slowly as he has surprised them by doing a fairly conservative agenda. Still, President Trump will be looking at a new Congress and we will all just have to wait and see what the reality is then. It will depend on whether the Republicans hold their majorities in both houses, if they gain Trump supporting Republicans and not more like Romney, who will win in Utah making him the replacement for McCain (may he rest in peace). I seem to remember they were referred to as RINO’s, which is a mean thing to say about such a grumpy and irritable animal, at least the animal is consistent, if they see something, they charge it. President Trump is looking as if he will be capable of completing his Middle East Israel-Arab plans and very likely within the next eighteen months or perhaps a year and a half. Fortunately for President Trump, this is something he can use the tools in place and at the command of the President and not have to rely on Congress to pass anything. It is highly unlikely that any peace plan would include the United States in an actual treaty, thus there will be no confirmation necessary. From what we have pieced together and projected with our own guesswork, the end deal will not include the Palestinian Authority and may even address Gaza, though if necessary, that will be left for Israel to take care of possibly with Egyptian assistance of some kind.

 

Whatever is the final arrangement, there are going to be some lingering problems. No matter how efficient everything is in removing terrorists from the population, there will be some number of terrorists remaining and an underground attempting to turn as many against Israel as they are able. Additionally, there is the possibility that the agreement reached may not include Gaza. This would be really a bad result for the people in Gaza who desire peace. On the other side, when given a chance to vote, over 80% of Gazans voted for Hamas. When the world went crazy during the earliest days of the Gaza rioting, the riots the world referred to as peaceful protests for as long as they were able to deny the violence, when the IDF had killed sixty-two Gazans, even in an interview which was to go out to the world, Hamas admitted that fifty were their operatives and later Islamic Jihad claimed at least three were their people. That comes to over 85% of those shot were actually admitted terrorists while we can probably bet some of, if not all, the remaining people were either human shields or also attempting to breach the border or endangering IDF troops either by launching incendiaries or shooting at them (video below). Even then, the world continued carrying on for weeks until finally the truth made their contention that Israel was being horrible monsters just killing people at random for the sport of it or something, but eventually truth does have a way of surfacing. Perhaps the scenes of flaming kites and balloons and the resulting fires which destroyed huge swaths of croplands, forests and wilderness reserves that brought people to realize the reality. Perhaps it was the image below of the unfortunate falcon they used to fly an oil soaked rag tied to its legs and the resulting dead falcon caught in a tree which led people to realize the monsters Israel was facing. Perhaps it was the fact that the media simply grew tired of writing the same article day after day and people no longer cared to hear about rioting Gazans. Whatever the cause, it was better for Israel that the media ended their repetitive groaning about how terrible Israel was being to the most innocent people who ever lived, which is exactly what their reporting often sounds like.

 

 

Dead Falcon Found in Tree with Twine and Incendiary Device Attached

Dead Falcon Found in Tree with Twine and Incendiary Device Attached

 

Even if this only cures the problems in the Shomron, it will be a huge (Yuge for Trump fans) to have that problem settled. Were Israel granted a green light and cover the next time that Hamas, often at the behest of Iran, decides it is time to make life miserable for the Israelis residing within ten miles of Gaza, then this problem too would become history. Once Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the rest of the criminal and terror infrastructure and personnel have been removed from Gaza, the remaining people could be granted a similar deal with Egypt and Egypt could be given an opportunity to have Israeli companies build plants in the Sinai along with housing units making some QIZ developments sparking some economic opportunities for Egyptians and Gazans alike. This would also provide additional revenue for Egypt through taxes on these areas, though not the companies as that is an additional incentive to risk such ventures. As these actually became fruitful and accepted, then the added infrastructure in the Sinai might serve to reduce if not eliminate the terror and criminal elements. This might happen even faster were Egypt to make arrangements for the IDF to be responsible for protecting these QIZ developments. Any additional security forces could only be an improvement in the Sinai region. The final two problems are not likely to be solved by President Trump, well, at least not in his first term. These are Iran and Hezballah. The first step President Trump could take is to make sure no further arms are provided to the Lebanese military as they are currently just the reserve arm for Hezballah and these terrorists have access to most of the Lebanese military equipment. The remainder of the problem is purely Iran. Keeping Iran cash strapped helps but it will take more than that. Let’s put this as delicately as we care to, regime change would solve the problem. That does not mean to replace the Mullahs with MEK (People’s Mujahedin of Iran) as they are simply a Sunni replacement for the Shia fanatics. Sunni Jihadists would not help the people of Iran, as placing MEK in the government would be placing them under just another theocracy with the same problems. This would really be, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” Let’s hope we won’t get fooled again, honest. Allow the people of Iran to choose their new government and allow them about eighty days to get one in place, after which, whatever forces assisted the regime change are leaving and that will be that. Israel is certainly not capable of nation building except in a nation where the problem was one of a natural disaster and the government is inoperative at the moment but will return as soon as the emergency has passed. One would be right in believing that the American people have pretty much had it with attempting nation building anywhere and might accept eighty days and out, but only if at eighty days the Americans are out. Nobody can blame the Americans as their nation building may have worked in Europe after World War II, but that was Europe and the Far East and Middle East are not Europe, at least not yet. As far as Israel is concerned, Iran is the nuclear threat which is being opposed by some of the best anti-missile systems in the world. Hezballah, on the other hand, is right across the Lebanese and Syria borders and currently has over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missile all loaded and targeting Israel. These exist from as small as five-inch rockets with half-kilogram warheads to missiles which could strike Cairo or Riyadh, which means all of Israel, and carry one-hundred-kilogram warheads, which makes these technically nuclear capable. Hezballah is known to have chemical agents including Sarin Gas which is a nerve agent with a very high mortality rate as has been proven in Syria. Further, Hezballah soldiers are equipped with modern anti-armor rocket launch systems and numerous sizes of mortars. Hezballah has claimed that they could easily overwhelm the Israeli anti-missile systems by launching tens of thousands of projectiles per hour, a threat which they might not be capable of maintaining longer than two or three days, but one hour under such a barrage would leave Israel with unbearable casualties. Damage can be serious, especially if it is vital infrastructure or any of the Israeli nuclear power plants and our desalinization plants as water is necessary for life. But much of the structural damages Israel could recover from fairly rapidly or at least in a reasonable amount of time. What we would be at a loss for would be the people killed and injured. People are our concern with property a secondary issue. It is this threat by Hezballah which has some Israelis calling for Israel to take out their provisions now while they are engaged in Syria and Yemen and unable to strike at Israel with full force. There are also those who believe we should sweep Gaza clean of terrorist and other illegal interests and people before Iran finds a means of providing them with even larger missiles. Already Hamas is capable of striking Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem metropolitan areas which placed over 90% of the Israeli population within their sights. Hezballah can strike anywhere in Israel so possibly living closest to them is an advantage as the rockets fired in your direction would be of smaller sizes. Perhaps the best bet is to have Hezballah disbanded or cut off by taking care of Iran leaving them without a national sponsor.

 

When the day comes that the world accepts that the Jews are permitted the same rights to have their own homeland and self-govern, then these other problems can be approached in a normative manner and not with the shadow of the hope these terrorist forces might destroy Israel. That will bring the world closer to the day Jews have prayed for for years, that Israel could be a light unto the nations benefitting all of mankind with inventions, cures to diseases, new drugs and discoveries in virtually every area of life. The other nice thing is once the world truly accepts Jews as having the same rights as other peoples, then the world will be very close to having done away with all varieties of hatreds. This is why the efforts being carried forward by President Trump may prove to be worth far more than the world realizes at this moment. Currently, in Britain it has been reported that at least one-third to three-fifths of the nation’s Jews are ready to move to Israel, Canada or the United States (the majority to Israel) should the Labor Party win the next elections and Jeremy Corbin become Prime Minister. The rising anti-Semitism, which appears often to be worldwide, is another reason that President Trump succeeding in his peace efforts is so vital to world peace. We have stated that we do not believe that the next world war will start with Israel. We still feel this way but it is not because such a chain of events is that improbable, it is actually one of the likely scenarios which we have seen presented, it is that there are so many other flashpoints which are more likely to erupt first. The majority of wars which involve Israel are more often of a local nature and highly unlikely to spread as long as the neighboring nations have more to lose than they are willing to risk. Currently, the only nations not making this list all have one thing in common, Iran. The nations who have little to lose by joining a war with Israel are Syria, Yemen and to some extent Iraq and with the unrest building in Iran, we are afraid they might soon join this club. Replace the Mullahs with an honest democratic republic in Iran, if required the Shah can have one palace back and an honorary title with a sensible stipend, and all of these other problems would rapidly end. Russia would very likely tell Bashir al-Assad that he cannot have the entirety of old Syria back and then allow the Kurds to have their own country and the Druze to have their own country and from there we would have to see what would be what. Turkey is another problem which is currently attempting to commit genocide against the Kurds starting in northern Syria and they might just continue on into northern Iraq at which point there would be the face-off between the Mullahs and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, or as the two sets of leadership see it, Persia against the Ottoman Empire. That is one pairing which the world has yet to see and one which it could do well to avoid. I guess what this last part shows is that Israel could be a solution a whole lot more than she is a problem. If only whatever resulting solution will come of President Trump and his efforts would hurry up and arrive, it could make the entire Middle East at least appear less frantic and dangerous. Note, we said appear, we did not say anything about reality.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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