Beyond the Cusp

January 4, 2019

Great Leader Netanyahu Shows His Ugly Side

 

It was not sufficient that Bibi Netanyahu held the Prime Ministership and Minister of Foreign Affairs, but when it became available, he grabbed the power of the Minister of Defense as well, but at least at that point he appointed people who would ask his permission more than likely to replace him from holding the Ministries of Economy, Health and Regional Cooperation. He had recently held the Ministries of Pensioner Affairs and Communications. One wonders why we bother to have anything outside the purview of the complete control of the Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of All Things Available? But that is not what is at issue at this point, as perhaps our current issue only concerns the act of either the Prime Minister or the Minister of Defense to settle the difficulty. Usually, when a decision is required from either the Prime Minister or the Defense Minister and one of them is being received as if he were royalty in Brazil, the other, if necessary, could confer with the other and then a decision reached and acted upon. But there is the rub. Benyamin Netanyahu has taken on the position of Defense Minister while also being the Prime Minister and others, as noted above, and even if he as Defense Minister conferred from the right side of his brain with the Prime Minister left side of his brain and thought to take action, his being received with such pomp and celebratory elation in Brazil has captured both sides of his brain. We hope, for his sake and to avoid further investigations, that the government and its representatives of Brazil do not offer gifts of expensive champagne or exclusive cigars for Bibi Netanyahu or any expensive jewelry or other items of value for Sarah Netanyahu because in Israel, and probably only in Israel, such is considered scandalous. Honest, there was a full-blown investigation about guests who dined at the Prime Minister’s official residence who mistakenly offered such gifts which brought on an indignant rage from the left who demanded and received an investigation to determine if there was any quid pro quo for these billionaires who proffered these gifts to the Prime Minister and his wife. Most Western nations wish this was the greatest of scandalous behavior which was forthcoming from their leaders present and past. But let us get to the problem and why we are taking such affront from this difficult, mournful and heartbreaking situation which has needlessly been thrust upon the Religious and Zionist communities of Israel and potentially beyond.

 

The situation has drawn condemnations from much of the right wing, nationalist, religious and Zionist communities. Earlier this week, the State Prosecutor’s Office issued an ultimatum over several buildings which were to be evacuated in preparation for destruction stating that if they were not dismantled within forty-eight hours, they would be confiscated. This condemnation of the structures was issued despite their being legally purchased at a cost of several millions of shekels as well as additionally having been approved by the Civil Administration recognizing the legality of the purchase. The difficulty comes due to the fact that the region being in the Shomron is also under military control as the government under Prime Minister Netanyahu has refuted several attempts to place the Shomron regions under normal civil control leading to this unfortunate and sorrow-filled situation. Because of the reluctance, nay, refusal by the Prime Minister to advance these regions to normative regulation, these structures also required an additional approval, that of either the Prime Minister or the Defense Minister, which are currently under a singular dictatorial control of Bibi Netanyahu. This may have been partly the reason that Netanyahu took the Defense Ministry under his control upon the resignation of Avigdor Lieberman thus making him the sole adjudicator over the Shomron. Bibi Netanyahu refused to grant his approval to this purchase, which would have slightly increased lands used by the community of Amona by a mere two buildings. What makes this situation even more exasperating is the situation of the illegal settlement which has been scheduled for destruction since early in the 1990’s and repeatedly blocked only to have the Supreme Court repeatedly refusing the petitions for blocking the destruction only to face numerous additional petitions with a fair number by NGO’s which are heavily, if not majority, financed by the European Union and its member governments. These structures were built with foreign funds, without permits, without any utilities, without access roads or internal roads and have had numerous different groups utilizing them including but not limited to Palestinian Arabs, Bedouins and others. These structures are called Khan al-Ahmar which can hardly even be called a community or even an outpost as they lack all facilities and utilities required for human inhabitation and pose a health risk to any inhabitants and the immediate area. Further, they were placed within the areas which under the Oslo Accords and all subsequent agreements placed outside of the areas set aside for Palestinian Arab construction or inhabitation. Meanwhile, Amona is an established community, and actual city, the structures in question are ready for inhabitants, have all utilities and, as noted above, were legally purchased. These had no foreign interference and were completely legal by all nominal qualifications and had no destruction order, they simply required the approval of either the Prime Minister or Defense Minister, in other words, Bibi Netanyahu. The reason for the order for the inhabitants who are the legal owners of the buildings to be removed and be pending potential destruction was solely because Bibi Netanyahu refused to lift a finger to assist the Jews who had purchased the structures. The Prime Minister has never intervened to extradite the destruction of the illegal structures of Khan al-Ahmar and had no difficulty standing aside to permit Jews to be dispossessed of their legal purchase on the outskirts of Amona. This leads one to question why the Prime Minister/Defense Minister, one Bibi Netanyahu, decided that the legal purchase of these structures by Jews was not worthy of even the slightest action on his part to finalize their purchase which had been approved by all required civil authorities and was logged as a legal purchase only requiring his approval. Let us venture a guess as to why this lack of action was seen as expedient and what future plans could this have caused further complications requiring the difficult situation.

 

We all know that elections are due to take place in early April and that the Likud is seen as the obvious winners of the largest mandate and thus Bibi Netanyahu, as the head of the Likud Party, will be reassuming the position of Prime Minister and forming the next ruling coalition. The Religious Zionist and right wing in general are currently facing problems caused by the split of the Jewish Home Party with Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, the former top two position holders in the Knesset list, leaving the party immediately as elections were being called to form their own party where they would have complete freedom to choose their list for the Knesset and thus avoid the primary system of Jewish Home which may have posed some difficulties in the choice of Ministerial candidates for the list. This split will also have ramification on partnerships and other arrangements between the different parties and could be the initial cause for more parties to further split the vote on the right and the religious and Zionist parties spreading the votes over more selections and potentially having some not make threshold leaving these sectors of the Israeli public underrepresented. This could even play right into a possible scenario which we suspect Bibi Netanyahu could have in his plans. Let us make clear that these are our suspicions which have nothing more to validate them other than our own gut feelings. What follows is a scenario which we hope does not come to fruition. Everything will depend on how the Israelis elect parties and the strength each receive but we suspect what we fear will be a viable result.

 

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu

 

The first requirement will be that Likud does actually receive the largest number of mandates for positions as Ministers of the Knesset. Virtually every poll currently validates this assumption as it is the most likely outcome. According to most of the early polling, the center-right would receive sixty-three mandates, sufficient for a coalition and the center-left would receive fifty-seven even including the Arab Joint List which would be insufficient to form a coalition. Most pundits are calling that the definitive results but are overlooking one thing, Bibi Netanyahu and a legacy. Thus far, despite over a decade as Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu does not have any definitive legacy and this will probably be his final stint as Prime Minister. He looks back at the great and the significant former Prime Ministers and sees Menachem Begin who made peace with Egypt, Simon Peres forged Oslo Accords, Yitzhak Rabin made peace with Jordan and even Ariel Sharon gets credit for the Gaza Disengagement, or would that be blame. Bibi made his greatest contribution initially as Finance Minister as he was credited with making the modern Israeli economy possible though this has had a dark side as many Israelis did not benefit greatly and much of the development was contained within the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area not reaching far beyond to what is referred to as the periphery. It is entirely possible that Bibi Netanyahu sees an opportunity for a legacy by reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinian Arabs in the Shomron (West Bank or Judea and Samaria) and probably believes that any peace plan that President Trump proposes could become his legacy if he can have it foisted upon the Palestinian Authority led by permanent Refusenik Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas, like Arafat before him, has refused every peace plan and proposal while never making any counter demands or presenting what he would accept, at least not in English. In Arabic he has been adamant that the only peace plan he will accept is the total destruction of Israel and the Jews removed by whatever means the world prefers up to and including another Final Solution for approaching seven-million Jews. With President Trump pressing Abbas, and if Netanyahu can cobble together a government coalition which would accept almost any sacrifice in the name of peace, then it is entirely plausible that President Trump could force a peace plan between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Such an agreement would fall completely apart almost immediately after President Trump leaves office, but should he be reelected in 2020, then Bibi Netanyahu will likely have retired while the plan is still in effect and thus his legacy in place and any dissolution into violence which came later being blamed on whomever replaces Netanyahu. How, you may ask, could Prime Minister Netanyahu ever hold a right-center coalition together while making such a peace plan work which would require the evacuation of close to a million Israelis from many of the communities in the Shomron while splitting Jerusalem in half once again? The answer is simple, he would not be able to have such a coalition remain intact which is why we suspect he may be looking at a National Unity Government where the parties in the coalition are a combination from both sides of center. With his Likud plurality, Bibi Netanyahu could easily invite parties such as Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Israel Resilience (Gantz) and any of the minor parties which pass threshold which could give him a coalition of comfortably over sixty, especially if he included the Labor Party promising them some preferred ministerial positions. With such a coalition, Bibi Netanyahu would be able to do almost anything and as many of the parties he would be including are actually more left than center-left, they would simply go along, as he would be doing exactly as they had been calling for the government to do for the past decade or more. Would such a peace deal in the end have the same results as we have seen in Gaza? Well, actually the end results would be a million times worse than Gaza as it was feasible, Hamas would take over the region surrendered and Tel Aviv would soon thereafter be attacked directly with rockets. This would result in the next Prime Minister being forced, not only to reoccupy, but to cleanse the region west of the Jordan River and east of Tel Aviv including eastern Jerusalem of all its Arab population and do so with the blessing of most Israelis, even the most left wing Tel Aviv barista latte drinker; as rockets falling on Tel Aviv would serve as a desperate wake-up call. That would assure that Prime Minister of a legacy as well. Unfortunately, it is what ensued in making the two legacies which would not be desirable.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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December 31, 2018

Israeli Politics of Ineptitude and Improbabilities

 

Just a few weeks ago, the leader of the Jewish Home Party, Naftali Bennett, threatened the governing coalition headed by Bibi Netanyahu, at a time immediately after Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned pulling his Yisrael Beiteinu Party from the coalition making things shaky at best leaving exactly the minimal sixty-one mandates required to have a ruling coalition, that if he did not receive the Defense Portfolio he and his number two, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked would leave the coalition taking their party and the coalition would collapse. Well, Bibi had a heart to heart with Naftali and Naftali had a change of heart and remained in the coalition. That was a few weeks back and since then Bibi had made a recovery and again appears to be the strength of Israel, so his ruling party, Likud, collapsed the coalition sending Israel into an election cycle. This made Naftali Bennett appear weak and ineffectual after caving to and basically appearing to be played by Bibi, a position many an Israeli politician has felt as Bibi made out best in a test of wills and power. Netanyahu, if nothing else, knows exactly what everybody’s weakness is and how best to exploit their vulnerabilities.

 

But all of this was about a week ago and things have really gone full circle and entered the realm of the absurd. Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked recently announced their split from Jewish Home where they had been the leaders of the party and are forming a new party they are calling The New Right, no points for originality, no points for pizzazz but they do get points for simplicity and being cryptically vague. Their complaint about Jewish Home was that the party caved too often and had been played for the fool by Bibi Netanyahu, an interesting charge from the people who set the policies and were making all the decisions over the past year. But when making a fresh start in politics, you burn your bridges behind you and set fire to the castle and the fields on your way out and then try to rise above it all by standing on the very rubble you created. Since their split, the rumors have been flying from all directions and this is not what we wish to discuss, as it is basically irrelevant and all for the effects it may cause in the voting patterns of the electorate. There is always the problem of producing a new base if you cannot take the former one you had built in your last party. Thus Bennett and Shaked are striking out to claim they were hamstrung by the religious nature of Jewish Home, the religious Zionist party they had led for the past half a decade plus, and now they were going to form a secular version of Jewish Home, which in plain speak is simply another party which stakes its claim to the secular Zionist votes, the same target audience already presumably represented by Likud, but Bennett is claiming that Likud had betrayed that cause and he is the new true and completely faithful leader for the secular Zionist. That is fine as it leaves Jewish Home to be the main religious Zionist party which also welcomes secular Zionists as proven by the two people who just left and were the top two people in the party.

 

Now let us simply talk about some of the idiosyncrasies of Israeli politics. For some unknown reason, such as overly-inflated egos, as soon as elections are called, the right wing Zionist movement splinters into half a dozen new parties plus some old parties come back from the political hinterlands. At the head of each of these parties stands a single, or potentially two, individuals who have name recognition and who claim to be the next great deliverer of Israeli political right, nationalist, Zionist population without whom the entirety of this segment of the Israel population, a plurality if not majority, would be lost and their voices never heard. The splintering of this segment of the population to these separate great saviors results in many of these parties never reaching the threshold and thus not representing anyone and the votes they garnered were wasted on the egos of their top people. Too many of these parties attempt to claim the religious Zionist camp which would be so much better if these many parties would put aside egos and make a united stand. The best method would be to have all the right wing, nationalist and Zionist parties other than Likud to have a primary election to decide the leadership and the order in which the candidates for the Knesset would appear on their combined single list. The problem here is that most of the splinter parties are not democratic but are simply dictatorships where the leading individual or two individuals decide who will be on their list and hope to garner sufficiently well known and liked people such that they reach threshold, something made all the more unlikely as the numbers of parties increases.

 

Wailing Wall with Soft Pale Blue Star of David Writ Large

Wailing Wall with Soft Pale Blue Star of David Writ Large

 

The left has a similar problem but to a lesser degree. The two main political powers on the left are the Zionist Union and Meretz. There is also the Joint List which is a collection of several Arab parties, a communist group and some other parties who by banding as one garner fifteen to twenty mandates. This Joint List, as a rule, never joins any government preferring the opposition where they can condemn every action as most of their party members have openly called for the destruction of Israel replacing it with an Arab Muslim state. By the Joint List insisting they will never join a coalition, they make forming a coalition that much more difficult as now instead of sixty-one out of one-hundred-twenty, you need sixty-one from one-hundred-five or just one-hundred. On the left, there is always a struggle over who should lead the Zionist Union, which while being a union of the Labor Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party, is not exactly a traditional Zionist group as they favor giving the Palestinian Authority ever increasing regions of authority even, in some opinions, to Israel pulling back within the Green Line and simply surrendering the Shomron to the Palestinian Authority and taking over a half-million Israelis from their communities, homes and often jobs. Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party was formed when she split from Kadima which was wilting after Ariel Sharon suffered a stroke. Kadima was a splinter group from Likud and a collection of leftist parties including Labor which was formed in order to carry out the Gaza Disengagement, and we all know how well that worked out and the obviously monstrous results with which we suffer to this day. But the left has its prima donnas as well. The main difference is that a number of these are former IDF general officers whose claim to fame was being a battle hardened soldier who knows everything about the Israeli struggle for survival. What is amazing is the numbers of these generals whose views are about as far to the left as one can get without falling off the end of the political scale. They are almost to a man, the ones who come forth to the the great leader of the leftist camps, favorable in pulling back to the Green Line and gifting the entirety of the Shomron to the Palestinian Authority and uprooting over a half-million Israelis as noted above. These are the same generals who while not running for political office are touring the United States talking to every leftist Jewish group and synagogue collecting nice fat fees while gathering contributions to the leftist political positions, mostly NGO’s favoring a complete pull out back to the Green Line, which end up being the very NGO’s which support their run to lead the nation. One would think that there would be laws against using foreign donations to run for office in Israel, and there are but the NGO’s are not covered directly and will claim they are not directly tied to these campaigns which receive their blessing and praise. There should be a degree offered in Israeli Political Theater as that is an accurate assessment of the situation, it is theater and at its best, it is also a tragedy, almost on the same level as Shakespeare’s Hamlet, or would it be King Lear. Thus far, this time around we have retired General Gant forming a party and former politician and possibly returning to head whatever party is set on committing voter suicide, Ehud Barak.

 

Israel is just as poll happy as the United States with an average of six or more polls coming out daily once new elections are announced. They are even more meaningless here in Israel than they are anywhere else. Many a respondent does so in an attempt to make the poll appear as ludicrous as possible which means that all too many are not leading to accurate results. Sometimes one can look at a poll and just know it is a simple reaction to a sudden and previously unexpected turn of events such as the poll the morning after Bennett and Shaked announced their departure from Jewish Home and founding the New Right, the combined tally for both parties cleared easily the numbers from two days prior had shown for Jewish Home before the split. One has to wonder if they are really pulling voters away from Likud when every poll has consistently indicated that Likud will coast to an easy victory and then form the next coalition. In other words, Bibi will get to pick his coalition and punish those who have fallen out of favor. That leads us to making two predictions. The first is that Bennett and Shaked will merge their party with Likud receiving a waver to the three-year waiting period before holding political office such as Minister in the Knesset. That is the weaker of our two predictions. Our other prediction is that Bibi Netanyahu is on the verge of pulling an Ariel Sharon and completing his inexorable, tendentious and tediously slow slide leftward and away from traditional Zionist views to those views of the leftist camp. This will lead Bibi into making a coalition which will be made up by Likud along with Yesh Atid, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, Gesher (split from Yisrael Beiteinu) and last but not least Benny Gantz’s Hosen L’Yisrael giving Bibi a sixty-three to sixty-seven coalition mandate and forming a slightly left of center government. It would not surprise us if the Zionist Union would not request to join such a coalition which would simply be icing on the cake and pushing the coalition numbers up to around seventy MKs.

 

We told you that Israeli politics is seldom what it appears to be from the outside. One of the reasons that we can foresee such a move to the left by Bibi Netanyahu, often seen as a lion of Zionism, though how is beyond our ability to fathom, is something he said once himself. He claimed that one of his mentors was Ariel Sharon and that he believed that Sharon showed integrity and strength. Sharon also showed another making the slide to the left and he gave up Gaza creating the problems being faced today in southern Israel and the Hamas threat goes much further than just southern Israel as their largest rockets can now reach Haifa. Could it be that just as Sharon did before him, Bibi Netanyahu will be the one to completely compromise Israeli security and gift the Palestinians a state overlooking the heart of Israel. The only thing which could prevent such would be for some of his hand-picked Likud members to revolt and bring down the government standing to oppose such a disaster. Then there is always the possibility that Bibi could then do as Sharon did and make a new party out of the remnants from Likud and bring in everyone who would permit such a sacrifice of Israeli sovereignty and security all in the false name of peace, as it will bring war and not peace. The precedents are all there and of late Bibi’s actions, or lack thereof, have begun to spook us as he all too often appears ready to make good on his June 14, 2009 Bar-Ilan Speech where he stated, “In my vision of peace, in this small land of ours, two peoples live freely, side-by-side, in amity and mutual respect. Each will have its own flag, its own national anthem, its own government.” Many had hoped that statement was a simple bromide to appease a hostile and unappeasable American President Obama. But our fear comes from the apparent reluctance of Bibi to act by annexing Area C at the very least if not the entirety of the Shomron while Israel has a President in the White House and his United Nations Ambassador who both would give Israel cover for such an act. But Bibi appears too hesitant as if he awaits permission to act which is not leading but simply taking commands from foreign interests, not a viable means for ruling a nation successfully. May we be proven wrong because giving the Palestinian Authority the ability to rule and rain down rockets on the greater Tel Aviv metropolis would lead to a war of proportions which would quickly spread to Gaza and then Lebanon as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah all joining in an attempt once more to eradicate Israel. Heaven forbid such a calamity for both Israel and her antagonists.

 

As for the remainder, we will need to wait for the elections. It is our concern that Jewish Home (our preferred party) does not suffer setbacks because of the grandstanding of our former top two going it in a new effort taking with them at least one and as many as four other of our MKs as this is a blow. The good side to this is that we will not be bound to gift top spots to any single individual and the primary elections will also choose who will lead the party, a true democratic forum is coming which could breathe some fresh faces into the top positions of power. With change comes opportunity. We can only hope that Jewish Home takes this opportunity to grow stronger and present an open and welcoming face to the public at large. We will always favor the annexation of the lands which were promised to the Jewish People in the Mandate. We desire no more but also no less. The Arabs residing in these regions should be offered three alternatives from which they can choose. The first offer is to take what you desired and the Israeli government will arrange transportation to your desired location as well as provide you with a monetary package for you to use to assist your move. The second alternative is that you may remain within Israel and be able to vote in your local election but not in the national elections and be considered a resident legal alien citizen. You will be obliged to live by the Noahic Code and obey Israeli laws or face deportation. Immediate deportation will be handed to anyone attempting to or actually carrying out an act of terrorism. That will receive zero tolerance. The final choice is made by refusing the first two. That places you in the position of opposing the right of Israel to exist as the State of the Jewish People and as such, you have chosen to be at war with the Jews of Israel. We must inform you that this will be a war whereby we will follow the rules from Biblical times. We hope that is frightening enough for you to at the very least consider taking advantage of offer number one as your current path will result in your no longer having the capability of choosing anything. That is what a war under Biblical rules means. We are to present the first two choices before implementing the third and the fact we are not simply asking the leadership of the Palestinian Arabs is because we get the impression that you all do not represent the average Arab and further, when these people are choosing their future, wherever they choose, you Mahmoud Abbas and those who have assisted your terroristic ways will already be removed from the scene. This is the path to liberation for Israel and the Arabs receive improved living conditions and freedom to choose their new leaders at the local level. With time, the Arabs who decide to remain may be granted full Israeli citizenship providing they meet certain prescribed goals. There cannot and will not be any Arab statehood west of the Jordan River, as any such state would pose an existential threat to Israel and her people as it would be able to operate as the staging area within Israel which any enemy, such as Iran, could attack while not being required to cross the Jordan River or breach the cliffs on either side. The Jordan River valley is a natural barrier protecting Israel from any eastward origins of attacks.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 27, 2018

Israeli Future a Look Thirty Years Hence

 

Israel is a nation at the leading edge of a swell which will crest in about twenty to thirty years and may simply continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Currently, Israel has a narrow majority of Zionist, nationalist Jews of which the majority is religious, some more and some less, but all go to Synagogue on Shabbat and observe the Day of Rest and many go to daily morning service if not evening as well. The difference is one of the most basic of statistics, birth rates. The liberal left is having less numbers of children the further left you reach in the political spectrum. Their reproductive rates have been estimated to fall between one and a half to as many as two children per child-bearing aged women where two and a quarter is the minimum required to replace their population. The religious Zionists are having an average of between four to six children per married women, well above replacement level. There are some communities within this community where nine or more children are the norm. It does not take a mathematical wizard to see where the Israeli people are heading amongst the Jewish populations. Now for the reality which nobody wants the world to know. The Muslim, mostly Arab, population has had a declining reproductive rate with it currently between three and three and a half children per married woman. There have been some who have statistically measured the demographics which see that Israel will soon have a solid and unchallengeable three-quarters majority within Israel. The only challenge is the Palestinian Arab populations in the Shomron and Gaza. As both of these populations are outside the Israeli population and have their own governance, whether it is Hamas or the Palestinian Authority both being basic dictatorships, they will not become Israelis beyond those in Eastern Jerusalem. These Arabs have been given provisional citizenship which permits them to vote in Jerusalem and neighborhood elections but they are not permitted to vote in national elections thus far. The remainder of the Palestinian Arabs of the Palestinian Authority will, at best, receive resident alien status while being granted citizenship in whatever Arab nation is willing to grant them such status or they will remain under their present governance while their region will become part of Israel with them in a semiautonomous region. Gaza is unlikely to ever be readmitted into Israel without something extremely severe occurring in which most of the population will be sent from Israel as the Gaza population support Hamas and Islamic Jihad by over 80% according to most surveys. This makes this population antagonistic and adversarial to Israel and completely hostile and unacceptable for incorporating into Israeli rule under any circumstance or political scenario.

 

With Israeli population mostly defined as those who already have citizenship and those who may immigrate into Israel from abroad. Much of the Jewish population outside of Israel is highly unlikely to make Aliyah and come home to Israel. Israel has placed impediments against illegal immigration or any influx of refugees from Syria or the other disasters referred to as nations currently in the Middle East and North Africa, such as are streaming into Europe. There are some advantages to having adversarial nations on every border as it forces one to have the IDF guarding every border. The one border which had proven problematic was the long border along the Sinai Peninsula and the Israeli Negev Desert. Israel suffered such an influx from several African nations which Israel has been unable to deport thanks to threats from the European Union and its several nations, the United Nations and their interference forcing any nation willing to take these illegal immigrants through threats to cancel their agreements with Israel. This minority population will eventually leave by one means or another. Since their influx, Israel has, wait for it, built, yes, you know what is coming, a border wall which cut the numbers significantly. Israel then made this border wall even higher and it cut the numbers to zero. That problem addressed, Israel is in control of their borders and thus the population.

 

Stretch of the Israel-Egypt Border Fence

Stretch of the Israel-Egypt Border Fence

 

There is a currently sizable sector of the religious community which is largely not Zionist in their beliefs believing that the Messiach is necessary to form the final Jewish state, the Haredi. They are the current king-makers as their numbers of ministers, as they vote pretty much as a block though that is slowly crumbling at the edges, so to speak, but they still are often the deciding block which decides which party is capable of making a majority coalition. Their population numbers is also increasing due to their high birth rate but their percentage is still not increasing as the religious Zionist percentage is increasing even faster. The mathematical projections show the religious Zionists allied with the nationalist conservatives will have a near majority needing less numbers, if any, of other smaller interest-specific parties such as the Haredi Parties, there are two, or the Yisrael Beiteinu Party which represents largely Russian Jews but has been losing mandates in recent elections. In time, providing the religious Zionist groups can solidify putting aside their often-petty differences and some based on a small group of larger than life egos, then such a party will soon be able to replace the Likud as the largest party. Polls taken recently show that the left leaning parties, unless they receive boosts from retired generals and former Mossad commanders which they often woo immediately before election with promises of high positions in their list for Knesset Ministers. Without such a boost, the Zionist Union is perched to lose a number, potentially significant number, of mandates in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the religious Zionist Parties appear to be ready for gains, as does Likud. There is one thing which we must tell about Israeli elections and politics, it is extremely energetic which makes a poll taken in the morning out of touch by late afternoon, not to mention the change which can take place in a few days or a week. There is one item for which we need to thank President Trump, the media has become far more suspect and their slant is now readily identifiable by the majority of the population. This has been evidenced by serious changes in subscription rates within Israel.

 

But we are attempting to predict the future in twenty to thirty years. Then Israel will be even more Jewish than she is today. Israel will be more conservative, more religious, more Zionist, more nationalist and still a technological marvel as Israel will continue to be the start-up nation. It will still, unfortunately, be facing the same problems with the threats from the Islamic and Arab world not to mention that there will be opposition to the fact that Israel is such a success and Jewish being a bother to many in Europe plus the world will also have changed. The direction of many of the problems and the future of the world’s nations is in many cases problematic and in so many others in flux. The United States is in the center of a political civil war being fought largely on social media and the ballot box. One can only pray that the American civil war remains as civil as it currently exists and not turn to violence or one side winning an election and then altering the laws of governance permanently altering the future of the nation. In Europe, they are being tested by the large influx, much larger than expected, of people from the Islamic world. This is causing a culture clash of monstrous proportions exampled by the Ramadan with Muslims attacking cars in Birmingham, England early last June (video below). These confrontations as well as the tax riots in Paris and across France are all signs that within Europe the civilization is tearing itself apart. They make future predictions about Europe, especially Western Europe, far more problematic than here in Israel. The United States will be more readily predicted by the 2024 elections completely independent of whether or not President Trump is reelected as whomever the Democrats might run against him would likely not even remain in the Democrat Party by 2024 as that party is in flux apparently moving well to the left. The world is a very unpredictable and vacillating place where the only thing which is constant is change, a saying which has numerous variations and an equal number of claims of authorship.

 

 

Well, there really is not much to add beyond that the future does appear bright for Israel. The one item which is an unknown will be the numbers of Jews making Aliyah and coming home to Eretz Yisroel. That is a pleasant variable to have to be the main variable for the future. We realize that many of those Jews will be more liberal than the direction which Israel is moving. These Jews will also very possibly have decided to return home because of the changing situations in the world where anti-Semitism is on the rise and in all too many instances taking on some very violent confrontations. This is even occurring in some of the neighborhoods in and around New York City, even in some which are major Jewish areas. This has been a greater difficulty for the Jews in Europe where in France the numbers leaving for other shores has been increasing every year for the last decade. Numbers of Jews have stated their intent to depart Britain should the Labor Party place Jeremy Corbyn into the Prime Minister’s 10 Downing Street address. The future for Jews living outside of Israel is another problematic situation which is in flux and too often in a very wrong direction. Such experiences will have definitive effects upon those who are victimized and their congregations and neighborhoods. That will also have an influence on their political outlook upon arriving in Israel. They will all be welcomed and Israel will try to accommodate them as quickly and comfortably as possible. This too could lead to a significant increase in the Jewish population of Israel as not even half of the world’s Jewish population resides in Israel. There are approximately fourteen and two-thirds million Jews in the world and between six and a half and seven million in Israel making it 44.5% of the world’s Jews currently residing in Israel. The best projections claim that in thirty years the number of Jews making Aliyah will provide Israel with a twenty to thirty percent increase in the Jewish population, which is something we will have to wait and see as it occurs. Outside and unpredictable events and conditions will weigh heavily on what the actual numbers will become. But the predictions we have made will likely stand with whatever influx should occur. Coming to Israel can have a profound effect on many people as it did myself, and I pray it was for the better.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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