Beyond the Cusp

January 17, 2019

Israel and her New Allies

 

Well, they are not exactly allies as much as under the same threat and seeking cover, any cover even if that means the Jews as Israel is their last hope. President Trump has been signaling ever since he started his campaign that his idea was that the United States was no longer able to fight all the world’s wars. He specifically told this to the NATO European members and told the Arab world that the days of the United States fighting Arab on Arab or Muslim on Muslim wars were over. First, President Trump pulled a number of troops from Europe and now he has started a total pullout of American forces in Syria. You can hear the caterwauling already as nobody was ready despite having been warned that such was in the cards. Even the Russians were caught off guard and now must decide exactly what is their desired future in Syria and how much are they willing to invest to accomplish such. There are three nations who, while affected, are not harmed terribly by the vacancy left by the United States pullout, Iran Turkey and Israel. The affect it will have on two of these could not be any further and distant.

 

Let’s take Iran first. Iran will see the United States removing their troops as opening the door for them to proceed and make Bashir al-Assad their personal puppet as they become the real power in Syria after they conquer the nation with little regard for the people. Iran does not require the Syrian people, they require the Syrian ports along the Mediterranean and the nation as a base for building a Mediterranean fleet without having to sail it from Iran. Syria is also a vitally needed bridge for Iran in providing Hezballah everything they require to rule over Lebanon for the Mullahs and as a weapon to wield against Israel. There is one obstacle left for Iran, and that is Russia who also desires and currently holds the Syrian Mediterranean ports which Russia desires to use to replace staging their fleet in the Black Sea where they are dependent upon the good graces of Turkey to move their ships to the Atlantic Ocean via the Mediterranean Sea and the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straights (see map below). This is the final solution for the Russians developing a staging port free of ice year round leading to the Atlantic Ocean and free from any imposing problems such as Turkey, always an unreliable Russian partner. So, the main problem facing Iran and coming between their hopes and desires and reality is just the small matter of the Russian interests. The big loser from President Trump’s move will not be Tehran but Putin and Moscow. Iran will take the American pullout as a grand invitation to solidify their hold on Syria. This will also provide them with another front with Israel along the Golan Heights, which fortunately are still held by Israel.

 

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards Across the Black Sea then Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

From the Sevastopol Docks and Shipyards
Across the Black Sea then
Through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles
to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the Atlantic Ocean

 

Next up will be Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to do to the Kurdish populations in northern Syria and Iraq what the Ottoman Empire did to the Armenians going into World War I. He might even then continue by dealing with the Kurdish minority in Turkey similarly. Presumably, President Erdoğan gave President Trump his solemn word that his only attacks in Syria would be against any remaining fragments of the Islamic State. President Erdoğan has consistently referred to the Kurds as terrorists, so in his mind, killing the Kurdish population is addressing the Islamic terrorist state in Syria. It is all in how one defines terrorist. For Erdoğan, terrorist is defined s anybody or any group which does not blindly follow him and hang on his every word. This has been the problem that the Kurds have faced as they have had the temerity to actually oppose Erdoğan’s attempts to eradicate their leadership and subdue the population. He is appalled that the Kurds actually expect the Turkish government to treat them as well as it does real Turkish people and not as some outside and irritating minority which serves no real purpose, real purpose defined as Erdoğan. President Trump would be ill advised and foolish to expect that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will keep his promises to an infidel and not simply be following the Islamic practice of taqiyya.

 

We will get to Israel in time, but first the other nations in the general vicinity need to be discussed before Israeli positions can be evaluated as many will either turn to or turn on Israel as a result of the new paradigm. Iraq and Syria will change only in minor ways. Iraq, except for the Kurdish north, is already being ruled from Tehran and has IRGC commanders in many of their Army units already. For intents and purposes, Iraq is simply western Iran and will remain as a slave state to Iranian needs and desires. Iran provides a land bridge to Syria and a staging area for northeastern Saudi Arabia and the Saudi oil fields. Syria will remain in a state of war with Bashir al-Assad simply siding with whoever provides the best deal in retaking and holding the remainder of Syria or at least consolidating and protecting Assad’s hold on the Alawite western regions of Syria. Currently, the Russians are the principle force protecting and providing air cover for Assad though Iran has provided weaponry as well as IRGC forces around Damascus. What has shown thusfar from the IRGC has been that their interests are divided between setting up camps and stations for future attacks upon Israel including firing at Israeli forces to gauge their readiness and sending drones into Israel, often armed drones. Syria will remain a disaster with the people of Syria under great stress and threat for loss of life. Simply stated, Syria will remain a swirling pit of despair, horrors and continuing turmoil.

 

This brings us to Russia and their part in this new Middle East. The Russians were advised to become very friendly and cooperate fully with the Israelis if they expect to stop Iran. Their desire is purely military and in having the Mediterranean Sea ports along the Syrian coast. This also requires their retaining control over Damascus in order to use the international airport there. Russia has no great love affair with Bashir al-Assad, as he is simply the current peg in the role of leader-on-a-string who can be controlled from Moscow as required. For the Russians, Assad can be exchanged for anybody else should such become necessary. This is why Assad is walking a tightrope not favoring the Russians or the Iranians to such a degree that either feels the need for his replacement. Russia would prefer not to be the main force behind retaking all of the former Syria though they may be making a grievous error which might allow Iran to find room to eventually force the Russians from the scene. This is behind the Russians providing most of the airstrikes required by Bashir al-Assad’s remains of his Syria army. What has happened to Russia is President Trump handed them a large piece of humble pie with a note telling them that the United States will not be standing between them and the Iranians any longer as, while President Trump is in power, Iran is now a Russian adversary, or at least their problem. The Russian-Iranian interface will be interesting and may turn into a hotly contested direct conflict between the two powers. This will not be the war over who rules the Middle East, simply who gets Syria, or at least the Syrian coastal ports and regions. Syria may end up divided between Russia and Iran providing Iran is willing to settle for using the Lebanese ports to the Mediterranean. For some reason, such seems very unlikely to us.

 

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, along with Egypt and the rest of the Sunni Islamic world, are the big losers from the United States leaving Syria and subsequently the remainder of the Middle East and western Asia (Afghanistan). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates et al have relied almost entirely on the United States to solve all the problems in their region. President Trump basically told all these countries that the United States, as stated already above, is no longer going to fight Arab on Arab or Muslim on Muslim wars. He informed them they need to ready themselves to protect their own assets and countries or bow to their Persian masters. President Trump was almost heartless when it came to these former allies and we assume that he promised to provide arms and the tools of war, just not Americans in uniform to fight the wars. They were going to have to defend themselves or find another nation willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of their own people defending the Arabs against their neighbors.

 

President Trump assessed the Middle East, decided that it was a losing proposition and that the main nation which was truly an American ally has never asked, and even refused to allow Americans to fight their wars, and that was Israel. The message to Israel is that they had received sufficient aid militarily and have always proven capable of protecting themselves in the past and President Trump felt sure they could continue to do so going forward. We have been warning Israelis that they should prepare for the day when the United States is no longer providing them with weapons of war. We have insisted that they start designing their next generation fighter jets, designing their own firearms, making their own ammunition, making their own munitions for tanks and artillery, make their own bombs both ‘smart’ and ‘drop and pray,’ making their own missiles launched by aircraft or ground based, and building everything in Israel. They were going to soon have to change from in America we trust to in Israel it is Hashem we trust but make our own weaponry. Israel is probably the least affected nation outside of their needing to start making their own fighter jets and munitions. Their deal from fifty years ago is about to have run its coarse, despite the promise presumably being eternal, which we discussed in an article titled “America Can be a Fickle Friend.” But Israel has been told that the United States can provide support politically, when it suits her mood, but will no longer be the turn to sugar daddy for Israeli military needs. President Trump is completely correct in cutting the umbilical cord as discussed in our previous article. When the United States began sending massive military aid to Israel it almost equaled the Israeli GDP while it currently is but a little more than one or two percent of GDP. Israel has come of age and can produce these things for themselves and more. We would like to imagine Israel joining the space race and perhaps eventually finding a planet like the one pictured below.

 

Planet Israel

Planet Israel

 

The new Middle East is quite a bit like the old Middle East with all the animosities, all the hatreds, all the conflicts and the entire mess we have all grow sick to death over with one large difference, the United States will not be policing the region for as long as President Trump is in office. There will be numerous intrigues and some countries will develop spines and the bristling armaments for self-defense while others will hire mercenaries or be swallowed whole by those with expansionist desires. Iran will remain problem one for most of the region with the exceptions of those nations already subservient to Tehran. These sub-states include thusfar Iran, western Syria, Qatar and Yemen with more likely to follow. Saudi Arabia is the least prepared as their military can put on a great parade but is otherwise untested. The Sunni Arab nations are secretly, and almost openly, making offers and inroads with Israel. Israel should be wary as these are not her friends and will turn upon her in an instant should they perceive the slightest weakness. Israel cannot and should never try to replace the American military actions and presence across the region. Should Israel deal with Saudi Arabia and the others who are putting forth their hands, even if it is only behind a curtain away from public view? Yes, but only as far as these dealings substantively bolster Israel or provide vital necessities in the Israel struggle against Iran. As for taking in these nations as close allies, never. These nations are to be treated as scorpions who when they finally sting you filling you with venom and you ask, why are you doing this as it will only make you more vulnerable, they will answer that they were scorpions when Israel trusted them and allowed them close and they remained scorpions when they stung Israel because that is the nature of a scorpion. It is as old a situation as the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Meanwhile, the Middle East will remain the Middle East filled with intrigues, hatreds, broken trusts, suspicions, false promises and every other disdainful thing one remembers as originating there. The main players remain Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Only one of these nations does not strive to become an empire while others believe now is their time and others lie in wait for their opportunity.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 8, 2018

A General View of the World

 

At the top of our concerns has to do with the Israeli Supreme Court, in particular the leftist Justices and the Justice Minister. These groups of Justices are thinking of invalidating the recent new Basic Law called the Nationality Law. In the past it has been considered beyond the scope of the Supreme Court to countermand any law passed as a Basic Law. These Justices had gotten used to acting in response to any leftist demands protesting laws passed by the Knesset and their having simply invalidating them from their position without having a case brought. This had become a dangerous situation as the Supreme Court had become a dictatorial force. The present Justice Minister had acted to bring such actions under control thus preventing the Supreme Court blocking legislation or even making laws from the bench and even at times countermanding orders given by officers in the IDF. Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked has thusfar prevented their doing so while under her watch. She had even stripped the Supreme Court from ordering demolitions of housing by restructuring the laws such that these were now to be decided in the lower courts where actual deeds of ownership would be required proving ownership of such lands rather than decrees coming without such proof as had become the case. No longer can a complaint be lodged without deed to prove ownership of lands as the Supreme Court had been doing in the past. Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked has warned these Supreme Court Justices not to act as they are considering or face severe consequences. Should they challenge her on this, they will soon understand that there is no fury like a women scorned. Hopefully, these justices will understand that the rules have changed and that they no longer rule Israel, the elected representatives of the people do. Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked has even altered the means by which new Supreme Court justices are chosen such that the court no longer basically can choose their own replacements. This has been a benefit for the people as their elected governance now rules and not a black robed group of unelected justices.

 

The supposed peace between Israel and Hamas has hit a snag, which may not be as bad as one might believe. Where the elected Hamas run government, elected being those chosen who Hamas picked to run, had agreed to the ceasefire but the military arm of Hamas has refused to honor any ceasefire choosing instead to try to destroy Israel through military means. The unfortunate result is the incendiary balloons and kites will continue to be launched into Israel setting more fires and potentially threatening homes and businesses. Many Israelis are reaching the point where they simply want Gaza erased from the earth and retaken complete cleared of its current inhabitants. The government refuses to bend to this will as they know that the United Nations, European Union, most European nations, the Arab and Muslim worlds and many others would be up in arms and demanding that Israel be brought before the International Court of Justice in the Hague for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The excuse which the Prime Minister would give any media asking his reaction to such a move would likely be that we cannot anger the United States and President Trump. What many Israelis believe is that President Trump would likely not say anything and would be more likely to block any motions in the Security Council demanding Israel be prosecuted stating that Israel was simply removing a terrorist threat to the nation and her people. Still, the Israeli government will not be testing this theory and the Hamas threats from Gaza will unfortunately remain for the time being. Eventually, their threat will require the retaking of Gaza and recognizing and admitting that relinquishing control of Gaza was a serious mistake for which Israel has been punished enough.

 

Further news from the confrontations along the Gaza perimeter not only include more launching of incendiary devices but also Hamas terrorists engaging IDF soldiers shooting at them resulting in IDF responding fire. The Hamas position was targeted by an IDF tank and the position was eliminated killing the two Hamas terrorists who had engaged the IDF from an armored bunker. Armored bunkers are quite adequate to protect one from rifle fire but a tank round is something complete different. The resulting tank fire can be seen at the end of the video below which also shows the Hamas terrorists firing at the IDF position across the border. The moral is to not annoy people who have greater firepower than you are protected against. With any luck, this might convince the military wing of Hamas to agree to a ceasefire. The only real problem with reaching a ceasefire with Hamas is that they will break the agreement as soon as they have rearmed sufficiently to cause more damage and threat to life than their last round of violence. This is why they call any ceasefire a hudna, which in Islamic history is an agreement for ten years or until the Islamic forces have rearmed sufficiently to achieve their goals.

 

 

On a brighter note, Ruach HaShem Gordon from Shilo, Israel, won the male youth 14-15 category in 40kg at the 1/4 semi-final against a Sri Lankan opponent with a final score 30-28, although weighing less than 40kg and being shorter than his opponent. He will continue into the semifinals and we wish him good fortune, as this is Ruach’s second time at the Youth World Championship. Israelis often do very well in many of these martial arts competitions partially due to training in Krav Maga, an Israeli developed martial art used by the IDF, as it is a method for overwhelming an opponent reaching a quick and some claim brutal victory.

 

The Russian interference in the 2016 election continues to limp ahead with them now hinting that they are now considering looking into conspiracy of President Trump. There is a reason for why they have stated this change in direction. The level of proof for conspiracy is so far below the original charges of actual criminal acts to alter the results of the election. What appears to have come about is that the Mueller special council investigation is as they find less and less evidence of any wrong-doing or even collusion that they are continuing to move the goal posts closer and close such that they have lowered the bar about as low as is possible. The only question is when will the plug be pulled and what will happen when that day finally arrives. Nancy Pelosi and others have threatened to bring charges against President Trump for impeachment for obstruction of justice if he were to end the Mueller special council investigation. The already ridiculousness of the original charge for the Mueller investigation where he was charged to investigate the Trump campaign and anybody connected to the campaign for wrongdoing beginning with Russian collusion to alter the results of the election to any other criminal acts which can be uncovered. A simple description of these guidelines was that Mueller was to investigate until he found something with which he could charge President Trump no matter how far they had to go or how slight the criminal act or hint thereof.

 

The initial Iran sanctions have been passed which will make nations and companies have to choose whether they wish to do business with Iran or with the United States. The President of Iran, Rouhani, responded to the move claiming that he would be willing to meet with President Trump as requested without preconditions providing that the United States apologizes for all that they have done to damage Iran and pay compensations to Iran. What is it with these Middle East dictatorial regimes that they believe that no preconditions means that they do not need to give up anything but the United States and Israel must be required to surrender everything these countries demand and then they will discuss any further surrender which will be demanded by these nations. Actually, if one studies Islam they will immediately understand that it simply states that Allah has promised them that they will rule the world and as Muslims, they are superior to all others. Islam places Muslims above everybody else because anyone who is not a believer of Islam is a Dhimmi, which makes them a second-class people who must defer to any and all Muslims. As a Dhimmi, you have no right to be represented in any court case which is brought against them. Non-Muslims are subjected to Dhimmitude as how they will be treated. This is usually reserved for Jews and Christians as People of the Book while others have even less rights under Islam. Some within Islam have stated that the United States was founded upon an Islamic foundation rather than a Christian or Judeo-Christian foundation, thus the United States is actually an Islamic State.

 

On a completely different front, the gender wars continue in the Western World. The main concept behind this movement apparently is that the normative over 90% of the world must defer to the minority sexually different people who most would claim are confused about their gender. It was not that long ago that such people were listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders as requiring mental health counselling and assistance. They would have been referred to psychologists for treatment rather than the normative population being forced to facilitate this small minority and whatever their proclivities demand. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders was edited such that these disorders were removed from the list of disorders under extreme pressure from those who desire removing all sexual disorders or unlawful proclivities from their former classifications under the law and mental disorders and instead injected into normative society and demand they be made comfortable no matter how uncomfortable it may make the majority of people. One of the demands from these activists is that everybody be permitted to use whichever restroom which agrees with their emotional state and not necessarily their physical gender. They refer to these gender confused people of having the wrong gender as an accident of birth and their genes and these people should be permitted to use restrooms and even showers at the gym which agree with their mental state and not their gender which is merely an accident of physiology.

 

Future World will be Bright One Way or the Other

Future World will be Bright One Way or the Other

 

The world has so many ideas in the modern world which would have been considered a sign of mental disorders if people were to suggest these ideas be considered, let alone passed into law, back not all that long ago. Sometimes, as people somewhat advanced in age, but not overtly so, we look at a world we do not recognize with ideas being considered as normal today which were considered not to even be discussed in polite conversation back in the day, as we call it. As to where the world is going, we have a difficult enough time dealing with some of where the world has reached. We have realized that the speed with which changes are arriving has increased exponentially and will only accelerate from here. We see a future where things are going to change; our only worry is which direction this change will be. Will the age of Artificial Intelligence and robotics arrive before a new and probably decisively final World War where weapons potentially beyond our imaginations are used and the result to society and the world will be far beyond our reckoning. The future could reach heights where many of the current problems will finally be problems in the past worldwide and a world where computers are used to advance the human condition and robotics free people up to pursue their own directions and the people in the current third world will have resources providing food and clean water and a level of life which is unthinkable to them currently. There could be a future where want will be something of the past, resources will be made available for the conquest of space, and a completely new frontier will be opened for the human race. The other direction the world might take will pit the human race in a divisive war where almost the entirety of the world will end up choosing sides and survival will be the main goal of humanity. We pray every day for the best and fear for the worst and unfortunately, that is the limit of our power. The next decade will be decisive and perhaps we will have the opportunity to do another one of these articles and sum up the changes, or not.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 16, 2018

Iran, Europe, Israel, Syria and the State of Things

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:55 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Allow us to start with a direct quote from Giulio Meotti’s article titled, “Europe has chosen disgrace” where he stated referring to Europe as a whole, “It has no interest in Israel. Indeed, I will say more: in their intimate thoughts, in their “mental deal”, most Europeans think that Israel, the country most at risk from a nuclearized Iran, is a burden, and that the Middle East would be more peaceful without a Jewish State.” At this point, we need to place a disclaimer, we really do not hate France and we are using someone else’s material and we do have to agree that France did provide the largest target of recent history of anti-Israel bias. Quoting from deeper in Giulio Meotti’s article, we find the following list.

-in 1967, when De Gaulle made the pro-Arab choice and applied an embargo to Israel:
-during the Intifada, when the Israelis were slaughtered on buses and the French ambassador in London Daniel Bernard called Israel “that little country of s….t”;
-with Saddam Hussein, when France ran to sell him missiles and nuclear technology;
-with Arafat, treated like a king by Mitterrand and who died in Paris:
-with Valéry Giscard d’Estaing who granted asylum to Khomeini in Paris;
-with the Jews killed in the French suburbs and the French authorities unable to protect them.

One last quote from the article and then we will add our commentary. Giulio Meotti further reports, “The day after the US left the nuclear agreement with Iran, trying to build a Western alliance to stop Iranian expansionism, French President Macron called Iranian President Rouhani on the phone with the aim of ‘continuing to implement the nuclear agreement and to maintain regional stability’”

 

France aside, Germany, Britain and much of Europe allowing the European Union to all agree that business with Iran is far more important than siding with some American cowboy businessman and his insult to his predecessor’s efforts to reach the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) which, as far as the European powers are concerned, is a simply perfect agreement which at least delays the Iranian nuclear program. Anyways, the Iranian nuclear program is no threat to Europe, they chant “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” and not Death to Europe. Iran is doing business with the Europeans and everybody is sharing technology and making profits and getting what they desire from one another. Sure, some of the goods being exchanged could be adapted for use in the production of advanced nuclear devices, but the treaty will prevent that, so what could possibly be the harm. The Europeans are once again doing business with the greatest evil governance on the planet under the illusion that it would never target them, there is an agreement. Some places never learn from history, something which appears to be a problem the world over. At least our readers know of the foreboding warning given by writer and philosopher George Santayana, “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” So, where can we go from such a beginning?

 

Map of the European Union

Map of the European Union

 

There is the entirety of the mess in Syria which has much to do with Iran. Without the assistance of Iran, Bashir al-Assad would have been removed from power as the Russians would have simply reached an agreement with one of the dissident groups, be they Sunnis or Kurds, and in return for retaining their airstrip and naval ports, they would have allowed one to form a new government. Russia might have even permitted the breaking up of Syria into three separate nations allowing the Alawites to retain governance over their areas, the Druze to rule their mountainous regions, the Kurds to join with the Kurds in Iraq and form a new Kurdistan and the Sunni to have their own governance. Such an agreement would have ended the Syrian debacle and shut down its meat-grinder and made the region safer for many of the refugees and desperate people remaining within Syria to return and rebuild their homes and cities.

 

The problem is Iran requires that they have complete control over all of Syria such that they have a route direct from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea. So, it was at the insistence of Iran that all of Syria had to be brought back into their fold and under the rule of Bashir al-Assad and the Alawite Shiite Islamic power base. Russia could have lived with an agreement with the Alawites by exchanging Russian protection of their western region and coastal Syria for using the ports to service the Russian Mediterranean and Atlantic fleets and their airstrip assuring them they would also retain Damascus. Russia and the Alawites along with al-Assad would have even gained the support of the United States had they gone for such a solution. Europe would have been less taxed as the numbers of refugees would have been reduced significantly. The only country which gains by continuing the civil war in Syria is Iran and their insistence for ruling all of Syria through their puppet al-Assad so they have a direct route to the Mediterranean and to the Israeli northern border. It is the Iranians attempt to become the hegemonic power lording over the entirety of the Middle East and using this as their power base in order to spread their power even further. This is where the Europeans are making their mistaken assumptions that the Iranians have no designs on Europe in their future. The Mullahs of Iran have designs not only on Europe, but on every corner of the globe, as their eventual rule, according to the Quran, will be the entirety of the world. The only variable is how long this conquest will take and that will depend upon their first two apparent targets, Israel and the United States.

 

Another item which should be pointed out is that Europe is anything but a monolithic culture or has any political uniformity. There is a definitive demarcation line dividing the culture and body politic within Europe and it can be drawn between the Warsaw Pact nations which emerged from the rule of the Soviet Union and the older nations of Western Europe. Where Western Europe is largely secular humanist, Eastern Europe has had a resurgence of their religious base which they had been denied for so long. Even Russia has been experiencing a resurgence of the Russian Orthodox Church. These Eastern European nations largely refused to accept the refugees from the Middle East and North Africa between a combination of refusal to permit their entrance to having military assure that they travelled straight through in the trains and left on the farthest border. Many of the refugees were passed in such manner from one Eastern European country to the next until the refugees could be dumped in Germany. This was great as far as many of the refugees were concerned as their target nations of choice were Germany and Sweden with France and Britain following initially. Soon after BREXIT, the British conservative government of Theresa May closed their border to the refugees to limit their influence and numbers. Should she be replaced by the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, we can expect that decision to be reversed, to the detriment of Britain. This European split is further born witness as the Scandinavian countries are suffering from a similar malaise as the Western Europeans as they too have adopted the secular humanistic vision and socialist polity, a seeming disease with horrific consequences. There is one problem which extends throughout Europe, reproductive rates well below replacement rate. Replacement rate is defined US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health as, “In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as requiring an average of 2.1 children per woman. In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, however, the average number of births may need to be much higher.” The European levels of reproduction range from below to well below the required rates to provide sufficient replacement levels (see chart below). For a socialist based economy, low reproductive rates are a death knell, as such governance requires, at a minimum, replacement level reproduction and works best while the population is increasing. As long as there are more workers than retired people and others dependent on government welfare, then the socialist economy is possible, even if not necessarily desirable. The lack of reproduction at replacement levels pressures governments to open the borders for immigration to provide the needed and necessary workers. Problems arise if the immigrants who arrive are unaccustomed to the work ethic at the center of the Judeo-Christian ethics, as they simply add to the welfare rolls and making the economic challenges even greater and possibly far too formidable to overcome.

 

Population Statistics for Europe

Population Statistics for Europe

 

Europe’s sagging economies which are barely, if even, meeting their financial requirements which was part of the reason so many had all but their contractual obligations to support the NATO treaty. President Trump made a demand that the Europeans remember and honor their obligations if they desired remaining in NATO. President Trump, contrary to the claims of his detractors, has gathered advisors who also see the future challenges looming larger and larger on the distant horizons. The winds are blowing in just such a way that unless care is taken, then there may be some very dark clouds troubling the world all too soon. The initial targets may not be as they seem. Iran has lately tested the mettle of the Israelis with a barrage of rockets launched by their Quds Force. The Israeli response was swift and definitive. The response came the next morning from Tehran where Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated, Iran does not want “new tensions” in the Middle East. Rouhani told German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a telephone call, according to a statement on the website of Iran’s presidency and quoted by AFP and Arutz Sheva, “Iran has always sought to reduce tensions in the region, trying to strengthen security and stability.” What Rouhani did not bother to inform anybody, though he knows the Supreme Leader’s thoughts on the issue, stability in the Middle East to Iran would mean that Iran ruled the entirety and were working towards expanding beyond either into North Africa or across Europe. This is why the basic assumptions of the European Union and the Western European and Scandinavian nations that the Iran treaty is simply all that is required to contain Iranian ambitions. The Europeans simply ignore the broadcasts from Tehran and reports coming from cities across Iran of crowds chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” as simple boasting for internal consumption. They tell themselves that all the bluster is simple nonsense and, after all, such things are of no concern to the Europeans, they are above such things as waring and fighting as their societies have evolved and taken the world into the age of treaties and talking out differences. To the Europeans, nobody would resort to waging wars anymore as World War I and World War II and atomic weapons have made war something obsolete and too awful to even contemplate. Further, the Europeans are so sure of their knowledge of the world that they are betting their lives, their culture, their future and the peace of the world on it. That begs the question, what if they are wrong?

 

From here forward, unless some drastic changes come over what many call Old Europe, the remainder of history will be written without their input and very possibly their consent. The age of Europe leading the world have waned and their light has dimmed. This, at least, is the belief of New Persia, the identity which the leadership of Iran has taken. They believe that Europe is an empty land full of people with no stomach for conflict. They believe they are using Russia bending President Putin to their will in Syria. Here, there is more than a modicum of truth to their reasoning. Russian President Putin has sought to find some means of extracting the Russian forces thus far withdrawing them to protecting their naval bases and their airfield. They are no longer working to combat the enemies of al-Assad, as the Islamic State has become something that forces allied with the United States are mopping up the remainder. There are no longer any threats which Russia needs commit herself to defeating in Syria as the Syria conflict has become an Iranian war. Iran is fighting the Syrian War, the Yemen War, remains of the Iraq War, Sistan-Baluchestan insurgency and some other intra-Iranian conflicts. The coming conflicts will largely come from objectives as set out by the Iranian hunger to gain their hegemony. This is the reality which all too many have chosen to ignore. Those who are not ignoring it, many are simply unprepared to face the reality and unwilling to take the needful steps to make a difference, and, lastly, the few who have seen the coming challenges are being belittled and pecked at by media and left wing subversions. These false fronts crowd the real news off the pages and from the newscasts leaving much of the world’s public completely uninformed. The future conflicts will initially not even be considered worthy of coverage by the media unless they can be spun against Israel or President Trump. This will allow those desiring to commit mischief the freedom to do so all the while moving towards their desired ends. When things reach the fevered pitch making them unavoidable and are thus reported upon, they will claim that everything came out of nowhere and would never have become this way if only the correct people had been elected. This will be the beginning of the next great deception, something we will talk of more in the future. For now, watch Iran, Russia and the Middle East. There will be two other nations of interest which may have much to offer in the future, India and China as they are rising powers who have the luxury of time.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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