Beyond the Cusp

April 29, 2019

Poway California Synagogue Shooting and Other Hot Topics

 

Here we are once more with a Synagogue being attacked with the shooting taking at least one life. The media will play this horrific episodic hate the full coverage as the perpetrator is apparently an alt-right White Supremacist. The condemnations will come from all corners with much of the media attempting to link this shooting with Trump. The logic is that those on the right are all exactly identical in their beliefs, politics and thoughts. To the leftist media, President Trump is conservative and nationalist and these alt-right hatemongers are presumed to be conservative and are nationalist, thus they are identical. This breaks down exceedingly quickly once people take the time to think. Many on the alt-right favor a fascist dictatorial government while President Trump supports a Constitutional Democratic Republic. These are definitive and separate ends that these groups seek and there can be no overlap between them. The White Supremacists desire doing away with the Constitution and its guarantees and giving out selective citizenship excluding most, if not all, minorities, this would definitely include Jews, and allowing only those who agreed with them completely any real rights under the law. Should the government ever be taken over by these groups, the United States would be over. If these White Supremacists are such a great problem, why are most of the public comfortable in that they hold no power. Perhaps this is due to their percentages of the population are in the single digits and in some states near to nonexistent. The alt-right have no political power throughout most of the United States and the majority are already known to law enforcement officials at multiple levels. But, so very unfortunately, one or two of these crazies perpetrate horrific crimes such as the Squirrel Hill Synagogue shooting of October 27, 2018, and now, a mere six months later, the Poway California Synagogue shooting. The only fortunate thing from this latest criminal attack upon Jews at worship was that the congregation reacted to prevent further casualties. Their threat of force against the shooter sent him cowering and fleeing as soon as he realized there was going to be resistance. According to officials, the suspect is a nineteen-year-old adult white male from San Diego. Initially, he fled the scene, but later surrendered to police.

 

Chabad of Poway Synagogue

Chabad of Poway Synagogue

 

But if it is as the facts point out, that the numbers of white supremacists, Nazis in particular along with other anti-Semites on the alt-right, have been steadily decreasing, how can it be the anti-Semitism and anti-Semitic acts have been steadily rising? The most obvious answer is that there must be another source of anti-Semitism which is rising precipitously. One of the first hints as to the source of this growing anti-Semitism is that it is found to be quite prevalent on the nation’s college campuses. Some have even struck into the mainstream media. Our first example was from before the armed assault on the Poway synagogue, the international edition of the New York Times ran a cartoon depicting a blind Trump wearing a yarmulke being taken for a walk by a dog sporting a Star of David. If this cartoon does not reek of the anti-Semitic trope that the Jews or Israel controls the United States, in this case the American President. But what about biases from other angles which refuse to report news which would favor Israel as it would depict a Palestinian as wanting to commit terrorism within the United States.

 

There was a report in American newspapers this week, where you saw headlines such as, “Wisconsin Mom Accused of Spreading Support for ISIS” to “Wisconsin Mother of Seven Charged with Trying to Recruit for ISIS” and “Wisconsin Woman Pleads Guilty to Terrorism Charges.” We found these reports and more which we will allude to from an Israeli editorial titled, “Just don’t call her a Palestinian Arab! US media plays a game” by Stephen M. Flatow. There was a secret the media did not see fit to share with the American public and the world about this energetic mother, Waheba Issa Dai. For example, NBC News.com didn’t even mention that she was born in Jerusalem while the New York Times and the British Daily Mail went so far as to transpose this Palestinian Arab born in Jerusalem into being born in Israel. Could this mean that the media has realized that Jerusalem is the capital city of Israel and not contested lands? Not a chance as they will be declaring that eastern Jerusalem must be made Jew free and become the capital of historic Palestine which is a KGB invention by which the Arabs would be better able to victimize the Jews. Why would the media go so far around the truth when an Arab Palestinian was recruiting for the Islamic State while planning for a high casualty attack in the United States for which she was reportedly manufacturing biological weapons in her home. Perhaps they figured that the average American or citizen of the world would automatically know from her name, Waheba Issa Dai, everything about her origins, nationality (claimed and actual), along with virtually every other particular which they decided was not necessary to report. Imagine if it was someone who actually was an Israeli and not a Palestinian Arab who was doing such activities. You would know everything including interviews with neighbors from the old community down to whether they served in the IDF and every other extraneous fact they could glean.

 

The new anti-Semitism has nothing similar with the historic, classic anti-Semitism of generations ago; today anti-Semitism is most often expressed as anti-Zionism and anti-Israelism and these slurs are used to incorporate all Jews who are unwilling to expressly denigrate and condemn everything about Israel and to become their Jew vanguard behind which they crouch ready to devour any Israel supporter, Jewish or otherwise. For a Jew to be innocent of being part of the Israel conspiracy, which is defined as the Jews of the world having their dual-loyalty and working undercover to control the world and every nation where they reside, they must accept the BDS Movement and support SJP. Jews are providing organizations which Jews are able to join with other Jews for the expressed purpose of supporting every anti-Israel protest, sign every anti-Israel petition, produce their own versions of anti-Israel literature, editorials, letters to the editor and comments on social media. These Jews have lavished praise showered upon them by most of the media, the Arab driven anti-Israel often terror-tied groups, anti-Semites everywhere pointing to them as the good Jews and even the alt-right use them for cover for their hatred of Israel because of its Jewish nature. All of these are very active on the American college scene and are influencing the future leaders of America and Europe. You do not have to scour the news for examples as three were recently elected to the House of Representatives and two of them have been quite vocal and quotable, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

 

All of this hatred against Israel and its infection of the colleges and universities where the future leadership arises is troubling to say the least. Many claim that the main place which will face a troubling future due to these changes is Israel. Unfortunately for many nations of the world, Israel will be affected largely by having the vast majority of world Jewry coming home to a warm and gratifying welcome. Israel, people claim, is too small to accommodate a doubling of the population from a mass emigration of the world’s Jews making Aliyah. There are two problems with their claims, one is that we are probably at best talking half or possibly as high as three-fifths of the world’s Jews coming home as the remainder will remain blind to what is happening and believe that they are amongst the good Jews who are safe. In the end, there are no good Jews and their safety will dissipate in an instant and they will be shocked by the ensuing events; and two, Israel has one third of the country sparsely populated just waiting for Jews to come and transform the southern regions of the Negev Dessert into something unimaginable until it has been completed. Some see a new high-tech center where every form of advanced research and production will take place and lead Israel into the brightest of futures along with those nations who are not taken over by an anti-Semitic rage. It will be the nations where these anti-Semitic haters of Israel and Jews become the ruling elite as once they have the power to execute a transformation to a new system of governance and laws by enacting Sharia instead of the Constitution, Magna Carta, the latest French Republic (currently on number five but who knows when six will be required) and the governing laws and jurisprudence and laws of the land of others as well.

 

As we reported yesterday, there may be an inevitable clash brewing in the Middle East which will be largely about, you guessed it, oil. The United States, more accurately President Trump, is poised to end the waivers granted to numerous Asian states which imported a fair amount of their oil from Iran. The United States and the Gulf Nations are stepping up production to meet these nations’ needs but Iran receives forty-percent of their annual revenue from their oil sales. Preventing the sale of Iranian oil has always been a red line with Iran though President Trump will likely point out he is not banning their selling their oil, just warning that doing so comes at a cost. If the world prefers doing business with the United States over buying Iranian oil, then that is their choice. Such will not sit well with the Mullahs of Iran, many of which have been itching for a fight with both the United States and Israel. Yes, should a shooting war erupt over the Strait of Hormuz and potentially the Bab-el-Mandeb where the Red Sea exits past Yemen at this choke-point, perhaps that is the reason for having one aircraft carrier stationed on the Mediterranean side of that waterway. Such an outbreak will be sold by many on the left as President Trump fighting this war for Israel claiming that Iran has never done anything to America. Well, perhaps the validity of that claim needs some inspection.

 

We will start this review looking at the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings in which caused the deaths of three-hundred-five victims constituting two-hundred-forty-one United States military personnel, fifty-eight French military personnel and six civilians while destroying United States Marine Corps barracks at the Beirut Airport along with the Ramlet al Baida in Beirut where the French troops were billeted. The 1998 United States Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania have also been linked and attributed to sources within the Iranian government. Both Iran and Sudan have been found to be complicit in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole docked in Yemen for refueling at the time of the attack. Iran has been supporting the revolution by the Houthis in Yemen as part of their efforts to surround Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States with the intent of eventual conquest. It has been brought to light that the 2003 United States Riyadh Compound bombings were planned and trained in Iran and received Iranian assistance as well as protection. Iran is thought to have provided aid for the Taliban against American forces. Please allow us one last mention, the 2011–12 Strait of Hormuz dispute which included at least one American vessel being struck by a mine and the ensuing naval battle between American naval forces and Iranian naval forces. This one-day battle was dubbed Operation Praying Mantis by the United States launched in retaliation for the mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts resulted in American units sinking one Islamic Republic of Iran Naval frigate, one gunboat, and as many as six armed speedboats and seriously damaging a second frigate. These are just some of the altercations between the two nations since the 1979 takeover of Iran by the Grand Ayatollah and new Supreme Leader of Iran Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini.

 

The only reason that Israel could become involved in such an altercation simply rides on the fact that the Iranian leadership has stated emphatically that any attack by any forces from the Western world will result in Iran immediately loosing attacks upon Israel. Their logic is that the only reason any nation would take up arms against Iran would be due to the Israeli and Jewish ability to have other nations fight her wars. Israel has never threatened to enter into armed conflict with Iran. The reason Iran makes this threat is because they believe it would make a difference in the plans by the United States or other Western nation as they would be concerned for Israel. That is not of any real importance to the United States or others as they would leave any attacks upon Israel up to Israel to defend against and take whatever required steps may be deemed necessary. If the past is any way of measuring the future, Israel was specifically ordered to stand down during the two Iraq wars as a means of not forcing the Arab allies from removing their support. Israel was attacked by Saddam Hussein’s forces as they launched a series of Scud missiles in the direction of Israel. Israeli sources reported that eight Scud missiles had landed within Israeli territory, three in Tel Aviv, one in Haifa, three in largely unpopulated areas in remote regions and one in an unknown location. What any future Middle East conflict will take is anybody’s guess but one thing will probably be true in such a conflict, the Americans and any European allies will insist Israel do their best to intercept incoming missiles but to leave all military actions to the allies, especially if they have Arab allies. The one Arab ally which America can depend upon other than Israel is Saudi Arabia. The problem with any altercations breaking out between Iran and the United States is that Iran currently commands the areas not only of Iran but of Iraq, Lebanon, most of Syria as well as good relations with the rebel forces in Yemen who control much of that nation and with the Sudan. This is an area almost equal in size to the United States and does not include the Hezballah camps such as the one in the South American three borders region. These truths in the world and the media will continue to stress the story-line that all anti-Semitism comes from the alt-right which they link to President Trump despite all evidence to the contrary even to include the alt-right denouncing virtually everything President Trump has done which benefits Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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January 14, 2019

Latest Israeli Aggression Scandal

 

There have been reports and the follow-up denunciations over Israeli airstrikes against positions within Syria. Why this should bother people is beyond understanding. Even the fact that there was a ceasefire reached between Syria and Israel quite some time ago, the recent and numerous attacks upon Israeli sovereign soil ended any such agreement. We understand that after every rocket launched, artillery fire, sniper shootings and other aggressions by forces in Syria there has been the spurious apologies claiming they were all accidental. This included a number of drones which have crossed and flown over Israeli communities in the Galilee with armaments on many of these drones which were fortunately intercepted before they claimed lives or destroyed whatever was their intended target. All of these incidents would be considered acts of war were they perpetrated against any nation other than Israel. Because these blatant attacks were merely against Israel, the standing opinion is that Israelis need to just suck it up and absorb such assaults from time to time simply because the world demands so. Well, let us tell you a little truth, Israel is an equal with any other nation and if your leaders believe that such attacks upon Israel sovereign soil is nothing to get upset about, perhaps you would feel more understanding if you lived in our neighborhood and were suffering such intrusions. So, yes, Israel has attacked positions in Syria with the majority of them not even Syrian positions but those of Iran. Let us talk a little about these Iranian outposts.

 

The first thing one need know is that the Iranian leadership has declared that they are at war with Israel. They have blatantly insisted that they will wipe Israel off the map, that Israel is a cancerous tumor which must be excised, that Israel is an offense to Islam and numerous other claims of hostility. Then there are the weekly few hours of hate, they had to go one better than the mere two minutes of hate in the book 1984 by George Orwell, where throngs of Iranians gather in Tehran and other cities after Friday services and chant, “Death to Israel,” and sometimes, “Death to America,” and they do these chants with great fervor and true intent to carry out their claims some day. Well, that day may be approaching should Iran succeed in taking control of Syria and Bashir al-Assad pushing Russia from Syria all together. Iran has set up some IRGC command centers and barracks for their forces which are supporting al-Assad in the slaughter of his own people as he attempts to retake what is left of his former country. The fact that the United States, on orders from President Donald Trump, is on their way out of Syria, that leaves the only true powers in Syria to be Russia and Iran. Allow us to disabuse you if you thought that Russia and Syria were working in conjunction to assist Bashir al-Assad, they are competing for the role of the power behind the throne in Syria and there can be only one. Iran is not about to share Syria with anyone and especially the sea coast and port facilities, the areas which Russia desires most and is willing to go to the mat to retain them. That leaves a question of where does Israel fit into all of this. Well, that is easy as President Trump advised Russian President Putin that he should look to Israel if he ever might need a friend once the United States has departed. This will make for some interesting dialogue and interplay to say the least.

 

This is all part of the future in what is rapidly becoming the new Middle East. We have the United States advising the Russians that for any assistance they may need in Syria to turn to Israel. Meanwhile, there has been a thawing to the point of secretive negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as a whole new attitude by a number of the Gulf States concerning Israel with some potentially making overtures of allowing for diplomatic relations and an exchange of embassies. All of this simply because the Arab Sunni Islamic nations are in fear for their lives from their Persian neighbors and Shiite Islam arising bearing threats against them. Impending upheavals make for very strange bedfellows, don’t they? With the United States on their way out of the entire Middle East, that leaves the two main powers to be Iran (Persia) and Israel. Historically, it was the Persians under Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jews from their Babylonian exile allowing them to return home and build the Second Temple. Further, previous to 1979 and President Jimmy Carter assisting the overthrow of the Shah Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi allowing for Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assume leadership claiming that the Ayatollah, as a religious cleric, had to be a man of peace and tranquility, Iran and Israel had been close friends. Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was the initiator of the hatred and vile spouted by Iranian leaders since his return against Israel and the United States. The embassy crisis followed where student revolutionaries who adhered to the Ayatollah’s teachings seized sixty-six hostages, mostly diplomats and embassy employees. After a short period of time, thirteen of these hostages were released, these were women, African-Americans and not American citizens thus, Khomeini argued that they were subjects of American oppressions. The remainders were held for four-hundred-forty-four days, up until the hour that Ronald Reagan was sworn into office as President of the United States. Thus, President Barack Obama was not the first President to befriend the Iranian Ayatollahs.

 

The main problem for Iran when it comes to making good on their numerous promises of destroying Israel, the Zionist Entity as they often refer to Israel, is that Iran does not share a border with Israel from which to mount an attack. There is a fair distance and a couple of other countries which are in the way (see map below). Iran has already taken care of one of those countries by basically becoming the new rulers, by proxies, of Iraq and they almost completely control Lebanon through Hezballah. The Iranian problem is who takes control of Syria, in particular southern Syria including Damascus and the border along the Golan Heights. This threat makes the fact that Israel has refused to return the Golan Heights to Syria even in exchange of a treaty as history showed that the sniper training was carried out on the Golan Heights with Israeli farmers as their targets. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights, one could safely bet that there would be IRGC troops atop them today shooting into the fertile valleys where most of Israeli farms are located. The threat of Iranian troops amassed along the Lebanese and Syrian borders is the main reason that Israel and Russia have a common problem, Iran. This is where we get to why Israel has been making airstrikes into Syria.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

The problem has been that Iran has all but completed their Shiite Crescent across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea (see map below) and taken control of almost all trade routes and the flow of oil from the Middle East. Their efforts in Yemen and Syria are the only areas which are still being contentious. The Kurds in northern Iraq are not a great concern to Iran as their main reason for desiring Iraq is as a land bridge to the Mediterranean Sea and for supplying their forces in Syria and Lebanon via that land bridge. Their interest in Yemen is in order to pose a threat to Saudi Arabia from the south as well as the north. The two regions within Saudi Arabia which are desired by Iran, as they do not want the large region of sand and rocks in the central region, are the oil fields largely in the northeast and control of Mecca and Medina (where the star is on the map) which are the two holy cities and the claim under which the Saudi Royal family has claimed their right to rule, and the second is the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea which also gives them control over the Suez Canal, the main source of revenue for Egypt other than tourism. Iran has within their own territory the ability to threaten ships passing through the Straights of Hormuz through which almost all of Middle East oil, that of the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, pass through which they have previously blockaded only to have the United States Fifth Fleet reopen the waters by escorting every oil tanker and ship passing through that choke-point. The Iranian aim is to control the entirety of the Middle East through holding every vital seaway and thus holding every Middle East nation hostage with their economies at risk. They have come very close to these goals with only Saudi Arabia preventing their final takeover of Yemen using the Houthis as their proxies while providing them with Hezballah forces as well as IRGC assistance. In Syria Iran has gone further while using Hezballah and IRGC, they have also committed some of the regular Iranian military who are largely assisting with logistics and been responsible for the attempted drone attacks upon Israel.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

So, why has Israel attacked Syria? To be technical, Israel has not attacked Syria as much as they have been preventing the Iranians from setting up home bases in Syria, prevented as much as possible the arming of Hezballah with long range missiles and rockets and other armaments and heavy weapons, and struck at IRGC targets and struck weapons caches which belonged to either Hezballah or the IRGC. Israel has, for the most part, cleared these strikes with Russian commanders such that they not have their forces in the target region. Despite the fact that this could tip off the Iranian forces allowing them time to relocate the particular items which Israel hopes to destroy, Israel still will strike trying not to start a war with Russia, just with Iran and Syria. That would not work well as missile carriers are quite recognizable and easily located. Thus transporting missiles to prevent Israeli airstrikes from destroying them may just be making that easier as they would be in the open. Israel is actually still in a state of war with Syria which makes all of these strikes that much more Kosher. With the exit of the United States, the only things standing between Iran and an open route from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea are Russia and Israel. Further, if we were Jordan, we would be very nervous having the voracious appetite for controlling the Middle Eat and maximizing borders with Saudi Arabia and Israel sitting on their northern and eastern borders. Perhaps it would be advantageous for the King of Jordan to be making nice with Israel and stop picking needless fights just to appease violent Islamists protesting demanding the destruction of Israel. We suspect (though have no proof yet) that these protesters in Jordan are backed by Iran and possibly being trained by IRGC terror experts in an attempt to foment the overthrow of King Abdullah II replacing him with, what else, a Shiite theocracy run by Iran. In order to try to prevent many of these things and beyond what we mentioned here, such as eventually taking Egypt, Turkey and then driving across Europe and who knows after that, Iranian ambitions as stated by the Ayatollah is to rule the world imposing Shia Islam as the sole religion. Iran through Hezballah already has a training region in South America in what is called the Tri-Border Area. How big a potential threat is Iran, well President Trump thinks they are a real big threat and we agreed, discussing the entirety of the threats with this article. Their potential for creating threats reaches to every corner of the earth and hopefully not beyond, at least not yet. Part, a small part, of stopping Iran is the vital link they require in Syria, thus Israel will continue to do what is required to prevent this calamity from occurring to Israel and potentially Europe and beyond.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
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The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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