Beyond the Cusp

January 14, 2019

Latest Israeli Aggression Scandal

 

There have been reports and the follow-up denunciations over Israeli airstrikes against positions within Syria. Why this should bother people is beyond understanding. Even the fact that there was a ceasefire reached between Syria and Israel quite some time ago, the recent and numerous attacks upon Israeli sovereign soil ended any such agreement. We understand that after every rocket launched, artillery fire, sniper shootings and other aggressions by forces in Syria there has been the spurious apologies claiming they were all accidental. This included a number of drones which have crossed and flown over Israeli communities in the Galilee with armaments on many of these drones which were fortunately intercepted before they claimed lives or destroyed whatever was their intended target. All of these incidents would be considered acts of war were they perpetrated against any nation other than Israel. Because these blatant attacks were merely against Israel, the standing opinion is that Israelis need to just suck it up and absorb such assaults from time to time simply because the world demands so. Well, let us tell you a little truth, Israel is an equal with any other nation and if your leaders believe that such attacks upon Israel sovereign soil is nothing to get upset about, perhaps you would feel more understanding if you lived in our neighborhood and were suffering such intrusions. So, yes, Israel has attacked positions in Syria with the majority of them not even Syrian positions but those of Iran. Let us talk a little about these Iranian outposts.

 

The first thing one need know is that the Iranian leadership has declared that they are at war with Israel. They have blatantly insisted that they will wipe Israel off the map, that Israel is a cancerous tumor which must be excised, that Israel is an offense to Islam and numerous other claims of hostility. Then there are the weekly few hours of hate, they had to go one better than the mere two minutes of hate in the book 1984 by George Orwell, where throngs of Iranians gather in Tehran and other cities after Friday services and chant, “Death to Israel,” and sometimes, “Death to America,” and they do these chants with great fervor and true intent to carry out their claims some day. Well, that day may be approaching should Iran succeed in taking control of Syria and Bashir al-Assad pushing Russia from Syria all together. Iran has set up some IRGC command centers and barracks for their forces which are supporting al-Assad in the slaughter of his own people as he attempts to retake what is left of his former country. The fact that the United States, on orders from President Donald Trump, is on their way out of Syria, that leaves the only true powers in Syria to be Russia and Iran. Allow us to disabuse you if you thought that Russia and Syria were working in conjunction to assist Bashir al-Assad, they are competing for the role of the power behind the throne in Syria and there can be only one. Iran is not about to share Syria with anyone and especially the sea coast and port facilities, the areas which Russia desires most and is willing to go to the mat to retain them. That leaves a question of where does Israel fit into all of this. Well, that is easy as President Trump advised Russian President Putin that he should look to Israel if he ever might need a friend once the United States has departed. This will make for some interesting dialogue and interplay to say the least.

 

This is all part of the future in what is rapidly becoming the new Middle East. We have the United States advising the Russians that for any assistance they may need in Syria to turn to Israel. Meanwhile, there has been a thawing to the point of secretive negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as a whole new attitude by a number of the Gulf States concerning Israel with some potentially making overtures of allowing for diplomatic relations and an exchange of embassies. All of this simply because the Arab Sunni Islamic nations are in fear for their lives from their Persian neighbors and Shiite Islam arising bearing threats against them. Impending upheavals make for very strange bedfellows, don’t they? With the United States on their way out of the entire Middle East, that leaves the two main powers to be Iran (Persia) and Israel. Historically, it was the Persians under Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jews from their Babylonian exile allowing them to return home and build the Second Temple. Further, previous to 1979 and President Jimmy Carter assisting the overthrow of the Shah Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi allowing for Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assume leadership claiming that the Ayatollah, as a religious cleric, had to be a man of peace and tranquility, Iran and Israel had been close friends. Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was the initiator of the hatred and vile spouted by Iranian leaders since his return against Israel and the United States. The embassy crisis followed where student revolutionaries who adhered to the Ayatollah’s teachings seized sixty-six hostages, mostly diplomats and embassy employees. After a short period of time, thirteen of these hostages were released, these were women, African-Americans and not American citizens thus, Khomeini argued that they were subjects of American oppressions. The remainders were held for four-hundred-forty-four days, up until the hour that Ronald Reagan was sworn into office as President of the United States. Thus, President Barack Obama was not the first President to befriend the Iranian Ayatollahs.

 

The main problem for Iran when it comes to making good on their numerous promises of destroying Israel, the Zionist Entity as they often refer to Israel, is that Iran does not share a border with Israel from which to mount an attack. There is a fair distance and a couple of other countries which are in the way (see map below). Iran has already taken care of one of those countries by basically becoming the new rulers, by proxies, of Iraq and they almost completely control Lebanon through Hezballah. The Iranian problem is who takes control of Syria, in particular southern Syria including Damascus and the border along the Golan Heights. This threat makes the fact that Israel has refused to return the Golan Heights to Syria even in exchange of a treaty as history showed that the sniper training was carried out on the Golan Heights with Israeli farmers as their targets. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights, one could safely bet that there would be IRGC troops atop them today shooting into the fertile valleys where most of Israeli farms are located. The threat of Iranian troops amassed along the Lebanese and Syrian borders is the main reason that Israel and Russia have a common problem, Iran. This is where we get to why Israel has been making airstrikes into Syria.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

The problem has been that Iran has all but completed their Shiite Crescent across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea (see map below) and taken control of almost all trade routes and the flow of oil from the Middle East. Their efforts in Yemen and Syria are the only areas which are still being contentious. The Kurds in northern Iraq are not a great concern to Iran as their main reason for desiring Iraq is as a land bridge to the Mediterranean Sea and for supplying their forces in Syria and Lebanon via that land bridge. Their interest in Yemen is in order to pose a threat to Saudi Arabia from the south as well as the north. The two regions within Saudi Arabia which are desired by Iran, as they do not want the large region of sand and rocks in the central region, are the oil fields largely in the northeast and control of Mecca and Medina (where the star is on the map) which are the two holy cities and the claim under which the Saudi Royal family has claimed their right to rule, and the second is the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea which also gives them control over the Suez Canal, the main source of revenue for Egypt other than tourism. Iran has within their own territory the ability to threaten ships passing through the Straights of Hormuz through which almost all of Middle East oil, that of the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, pass through which they have previously blockaded only to have the United States Fifth Fleet reopen the waters by escorting every oil tanker and ship passing through that choke-point. The Iranian aim is to control the entirety of the Middle East through holding every vital seaway and thus holding every Middle East nation hostage with their economies at risk. They have come very close to these goals with only Saudi Arabia preventing their final takeover of Yemen using the Houthis as their proxies while providing them with Hezballah forces as well as IRGC assistance. In Syria Iran has gone further while using Hezballah and IRGC, they have also committed some of the regular Iranian military who are largely assisting with logistics and been responsible for the attempted drone attacks upon Israel.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

So, why has Israel attacked Syria? To be technical, Israel has not attacked Syria as much as they have been preventing the Iranians from setting up home bases in Syria, prevented as much as possible the arming of Hezballah with long range missiles and rockets and other armaments and heavy weapons, and struck at IRGC targets and struck weapons caches which belonged to either Hezballah or the IRGC. Israel has, for the most part, cleared these strikes with Russian commanders such that they not have their forces in the target region. Despite the fact that this could tip off the Iranian forces allowing them time to relocate the particular items which Israel hopes to destroy, Israel still will strike trying not to start a war with Russia, just with Iran and Syria. That would not work well as missile carriers are quite recognizable and easily located. Thus transporting missiles to prevent Israeli airstrikes from destroying them may just be making that easier as they would be in the open. Israel is actually still in a state of war with Syria which makes all of these strikes that much more Kosher. With the exit of the United States, the only things standing between Iran and an open route from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea are Russia and Israel. Further, if we were Jordan, we would be very nervous having the voracious appetite for controlling the Middle Eat and maximizing borders with Saudi Arabia and Israel sitting on their northern and eastern borders. Perhaps it would be advantageous for the King of Jordan to be making nice with Israel and stop picking needless fights just to appease violent Islamists protesting demanding the destruction of Israel. We suspect (though have no proof yet) that these protesters in Jordan are backed by Iran and possibly being trained by IRGC terror experts in an attempt to foment the overthrow of King Abdullah II replacing him with, what else, a Shiite theocracy run by Iran. In order to try to prevent many of these things and beyond what we mentioned here, such as eventually taking Egypt, Turkey and then driving across Europe and who knows after that, Iranian ambitions as stated by the Ayatollah is to rule the world imposing Shia Islam as the sole religion. Iran through Hezballah already has a training region in South America in what is called the Tri-Border Area. How big a potential threat is Iran, well President Trump thinks they are a real big threat and we agreed, discussing the entirety of the threats with this article. Their potential for creating threats reaches to every corner of the earth and hopefully not beyond, at least not yet. Part, a small part, of stopping Iran is the vital link they require in Syria, thus Israel will continue to do what is required to prevent this calamity from occurring to Israel and potentially Europe and beyond.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 10, 2018

Was Iran the Threat Trump Claims?

 

United States President Trump pulled the Americans out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) while offering the Iranians to sit down and work out a more restrictive treaty (see video below), which President Trump assured them would benefit the world. The reality is that should a better treaty be hammered out which truly would prevent Iran from ever attaining nuclear weapons capability with an inspection regime, which assured their compliance, then this would make the world a far better place. The reality is that Iran will simply continue as they have been by doubling down on ignoring their agreements of the deal, refusing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) permission to inspect their military sites other than Fordow. That was simply the most glaring refusal of the Iranian regime.

 

 

When one adds the revelations made by Israel last week about the Iranian nuclear activities, divulging the treasure trove of records absconded with by Israeli intelligence agents (Mossad) over the period of a single night, President Trump had all the information he required to justify pulling out from the JCPOA. Still, we are amazed they could even move that many records within such a brief period of time without being challenged. The speech made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu revealing the information (see video below) was interesting in that he was not addressing the Israeli people, for that he speaks Hebrew, and was not, as many declared, speaking to President Trump; he was speaking for the benefit of the American public. President Trump, his Cabinet Members who were interested and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had already been granted full access to the information for reason of verification that they were indeed exactly as claimed and for their being informed. Prime Minister Netanyahu was making the preparation for the action taken by President Trump by revealing the full extent of the Iranian breaching of the treaty including the initial requirements for validating the treaty, thus the treaty was in reality an empty shell from the beginning. With that established and made by a credible source, President Trump could make his announcement without facing rejections of his statements claiming that he did not have actual information on whether Iran was complying or ignoring their obligations. That simply caused those who claim that President Trump cannot walk without assistance, as he is that unstable, from claiming that he was bringing the world to the brink once again. That as it may, the die is cast and President Trump gave Iran the offer to make a new deal, which they will reject instead making much bluster while continuing with their nuclear research and weapons manufacture, and now it is just a matter of time until President Trump places a time limit on his patience over Iran requesting negotiations for a new treaty. This will be where things could become quite serious including the possibility of Iran testing an actual nuclear weapon and declaring themselves a nuclear-armed power.

 

 

As far as the threat level that Iran poses, President Trump underestimated their threat levels. Much of what the Iranians are threatening across the Middle East goes well beyond Hezballah, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others within the MENA countries. Some of their threat stems from the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay (see image below), where criminal interests, terrorist training, and IRGC preparations for strikes within the Americas take place including the two attacks in Buenos Aires, the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) bombing and the bombing of the Israeli Embassy. Iran has made threats to destroy Israel as well as the United States. There have also been rising levels of threat to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States as well as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and beyond. These are the threats which President Trump referred.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

These threats are actually minimal compared to the entirety of the designs of the Ayatollahs. Their dreams and designs are a compilation of the desires of the Persian Empire to rule the known world, which has grown since their time, and the Shiite Islamic desire to spread Shia Islam to every person on Earth. This put in the most simple terms states that the Iranian leaders believe it will be their triumph in the end taking over the entirety of the Earth and converting every remaining person to Shia Islam. Their intent is to give people the choice of convert or die by beheading. They are serious about this just as they have been at enforcing their nightmarish rule over the people of Iran operating a torture operation at Evin Prison where those who protest the regime face if arrested. Despite these chilling possibilities, there have been large demonstrations against the Mullahs in 2009, which were brutally put down with numerous of the leaders simply disappearing. These demonstrations have been building once again. President Trump gave those who wish to replace their governance with something more attuned to the needs of the people and not so intent on military building and nuclear weapons development at the expense of the people and the national economy. President Trump stated that the people should be the first concern of their governance, not just an annoyance to be disregarded. This was a message that Washington D.C. will back their demonstrations this time should they decide to challenge the rule of the Mullahs. Should the Iranian people rise up, we can only hope the President is ready and willing to stand behind his encouraging words and not simply blowing smoke in their direction.

 

Iran, as dangerous as they likely currently are, could become far more of a world threat should they ever compile a nuclear weapons cache of thermos-nuclear weapons which are miniaturized making them useable as missile warheads with greater yields per unit size mountable on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) threatening the entirety of the globe from within hardened launch sites within Iran. Already it is suspected that Iranian ballistic missiles are capable of attaining four-thousand-kilometers with new plans reaching possibly over six-thousand-kilometers. Iran has also proven their ability at firing satellites into low-Earth orbit, which is the principle requirement for launching an EMP device that would be almost impossible to prevent should it reach deployment orbit and be set upon a reentry path. That aside, the weapon could be removed from orbit while it remains in its orbit by anti-satellite missiles which have been developed by Russia, China, Israel and the United States at a minimum. The Iranians went one-step further by placing a satellite in a trans-polar orbit where it crosses over the North Pole and South Pole. This also permits for an orbit which approaches the United States from a southerly direction over the Gulf of Mexico and through Texas to Louisiana passing over Kansas City and St Louis, the prime location for an EMP device to be deployed and approaching from the area where the anti-missile detection and interception capabilities are at their most limited. So, Iran is capable of orbiting satellites, firing continental ballistic missiles up to possibly five-thousand kilometers and is at the verge of producing solid fueled ICBMs and the thermonuclear warheads to place atop them, exactly how much more dangerous would make them an international concern? We would claim they already are an international concern of great weight.

 

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

 

The Iranians have been working on producing nuclear weapons since December 1984 when with the aid of China, Iran opened a nuclear research center in Isfahan. This was claimed to be for the peaceful use of nuclear power, a story we have heard before from every nation right before they test a nuclear device. The United States started from scratch with the Einstein letter in August of 1939 to plan for making a nuclear device and exploded a fully operational thermonuclear weapon at the start of November of 1952. That is from nothing to a thermonuclear device in less than fifteen years in complete secrecy. Iran was suspected of working towards nuclear weapons in late 1997 and this was stated with an earlier estimate in the 1990’s, probably in 1992. When one figures out that Iran had the advantage that in 1992 one could search the Internet for a design for a normal nuclear weapon giving them a head start towards weapons research, then the fifteen-year requirement should be considered even smaller. One can even find the basic design for a thermonuclear device on the Internet; so making such devices must be far less complicated in the current time with the available free information. So, we will stay with the fifteen-year period just to be fair. So, if we decide for the sake of fairness using 1995 as the start point for the Iranian nuclear research into weapons. That would mean that Iran should have been fully capable for the manufacture of thermonuclear warheads certainly by 2010. As the JCPOA was signed initially in November of 2013, three years after Iran should have already found a system for the production of a thermonuclear device, we can probably also assume that the JCPOA was signed closing the nuclear barn-house door well after the thermonuclear horses had escaped. Iran could have been building such weapons for three years before they entered an agreement which had little if any punitive measures and weak and limp investigatory abilities after which they could very easily have continued their manufacture of warheads. Assuming that Iranian physicists are competent and actually were working honestly on weapons development, the world should expect that Iran has at least fifty, if not several hundreds, of thermonuclear warheads sitting currently in the ground in hardened silos atop missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in Europe and across the entirety of the MENA states. Add into the formula their capability to place a satellite capable of carrying a small thermonuclear device into polar low Earth orbit, Iran already could deliver a devastating device anywhere on the planet. But that is not the end of the threat.

 

Iran is known to have also researched EMP weapons, particularly it is suspected they have developed those with nuclear and thermonuclear devices as their trigger systems. These EMP devices could be capable of setting off a continent wide EMP pulse if detonated between thirty and three-hundred miles. It could effect anywhere from a closed area to a near open area including all of the United States (see image below). The outlines of the range of a strong device detonated at three-hundred miles altitude are purely frightening. Imagine turning off the electricity for up to as much as a decade across North America or Europe or almost fifteen-hundred mile radius effect anywhere on the globe. This is a threat that Iran may have already produced weapons with such capability as any nuclear device can be modified such that it has a stronger EMP pulse effect and a lower yield. This means if they choose less of an explosive shock, that they can maximize the EMP effects of their weapon crippling any nation which has not fortified their electrical distribution grids. The really scary item is that very few, if any, nations have bothered to spend the necessary funds to fortify their grids to protect them from an EMP device. This is despite this effect being known since the middle of the 1950’s.

 

The United States carried out a test of the EMP effect with a test in the early 1960’s finding that a moderate strength device exploded over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of two-hundred-fifty miles and found the device affected electrical distribution in Hawaii approximately nine-hundred miles distant. This was beyond their expected range and this was a weapon not specifically set to maximize the EMP effect. The EMP Pulse has multiple ranges of effect which cause electrical devices an entire series of stresses which maximizes the numbers and types of electronic devices and how they are potentially destroyed. The more nations allow their electrical grids to remain susceptible to the adverse effects of EMP pulse attacks, the more expensive it becomes to protect their systems in the future. The advantage of hardening electrical grids as early as possible is that once they have been hardened, keeping the entirety of the grid hardened as time continues and the system grows, is that such hardening can be included in building regulations thus all upgrades and additions to the systems will retain the advantages made by the hardening of their electrical grids. The United States figured that it would have been implemented in three-to-five years at a cost of ten-to-twenty billion dollars back in 2008. This would have included hardening the entirety of the system. Even after this has been performed, devices plugged into the system could still be susceptible and should the Congress pass new standards today which required all future electronic devices which will be powered by the electrical grid to be made less susceptible to EMP pulses, it would need to give industry around three years in order for new power supplies to be designed and all the old power supplied to be sold or upgraded, perhaps a decade later devices would be made EMP immune. Even if they were only required to only build power supplies to be fifty percent less susceptible, within a decade almost all moderate quality devices would be near hundred percent protected simply because the public would demand such protection once EMP was raised by such that it became something sellers could use in their commercials in order to claim their protection was superior than their competitor. If you want proof, look at the many food cereals which claim to be healthy and their specific amounts of the different kinds of fats, triglycerides, omega-3 fatty acids, calories and you name what else, but they will each claim they have the magic combination which researchers claim will make the healthy eater drool.

 

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

 

Seatbelts were originally an option on vehicles and the commercials showed the great advantages to wearing them. Within a few years, virtually every car had seatbelts standard and then soon after the Congress made them mandatory. Then came the tree-point seatbelts and they were standard even in the sub-compacts and then Congress made them mandatory. Air quality and water quality has been cleaned up well beyond what the laws written half a decade later required by industry simply due to the pressure the people placed on cleaning up the environment and industry responded and there were even commercials which stated the advances the production of some products were using at their factories to reduce pollution. The upper limits on people-power on manufacturers are near beyond the ability for us to measure. You probably would like us to prove this point, and so we will. Back on April 23, 1985, the Coca-Cola Company decided to release their great new idea, “New Coke,” and it ended up being less exciting than hoped. The BIG problem was that they discontinued their old formula and discarded it once and for all betting the company on their new product. All their testing had proven this product to outperform Pepsi with Pepsi drinkers. There was a small problem with their research, they forgot to test Coke drinkers. As it turns out, Coke drinkers were quite pleased with the standard Coke product and were quite distressed when this new more Pepsi-ish formula replaced it. Well, within a rather short period, on July 11, 1985, seventy-eight days after New Coke’s introduction, Classic Coke was announced. It was the old formula making its return after a short hiatus. That is what the power of the people demanding their preference can do.

 

Congress will claim that their regulations have done so much to improve our lives, the reality is the people demanding companies meet their expectations has done so much and Congress, late as usual, has jumped on the bandwagon after the companies have already circled the wagons and put their ducks in a row meeting the people’s demands. The politicians have to have their talking points, and that is all they usually are and they are depending on the people not realizing that it was their power that got the changes and Congress just jumped in at the end and is attempting to steal all the credit. Yes, they are a bunch of over-pious, overly-righteous, self-promoting egomaniacs who believe that the people really are that easily fooled. We wish they were not so close to reality on that assumption and being informed is what makes people less susceptible to the politicians stroking them just to get their vote and then serve the moneyed interests who paid for the town hall meeting and barbeque that gained them the votes. When the people demand that their electrical providers harden their service system, that is when it will be performed. Once the entirety of the nations is hardened, then Congress will require it and put aside tons of money presumably to harden the electrical grid. The money will be given to the surviving providers to repay them for what the people forced them into action and performing. Congress, always is there with the money, just after the fact more often than not.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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