Beyond the Cusp

April 16, 2017

Palestinian Communities Slaughtered

 

In the past decade there have been a number of Palestinian communities completely destroyed and many of the civilians residing in these camps put under bombardment killing untold numbers. The media has barely noticed these events despite their being reported in local news. Mahmoud Abbas and the other Palestinian leadership in the Palestinian Authority, the PLO, Hamas and other leadership in both Gaza and Judea and Samaria have said nothing. They have had no reaction what so ever. Judging from their silence one would believe that these Palestinians meant nothing to the Palestinian leadership. What could have been the reason behind their silence? Further, there have been no dire reports or protests across Europe. Usually the Europeans react quite vehemently to even the slightest hint of any acts against Palestinians even with no proof of actual abuse. Why nothing coming from the Europeans with the destruction of these Palestinian communities? There has been almost no reaction from the United Nations or the plethora of their organizations that monitor human rights and the Palestinians community health whenever there are any suspicions of Israeli misdeeds. Yet these attacks have garnered no reactions whatsoever. That raises the question of why the quiet when these Palestinians have been slaughtered, their homes destroyed, their communities destroyed and those fortunate to survive sent homeless wandering the countryside with little if any hope for their future. Where are the cries of horror over these events?

 

What has not made the news has been the attacks by the Syrian military, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezballah forces in Syria and Lebanon on the Palestinian camps and communities located in these nations. You might remember the news about attacks by Bashir al-Assad using barrel bombs, fifty-five gallon barrel sized explosive device filled with nuts, bolts, screws and nails often soaked with poisons designed to inflict the most horrific injuries to those it does not murder, on civilians. Well, what the news did not bother to inform the world about was that the majority of those attacks were against the largest Palestinian refugee camps in Syria. These camps were located in Homs, Deraa, Jaramana, Khan Eshieh, Qabr Essit, and others across all of Syria. Many of these camps have all but disappeared from the face of Syria with very few refugees remaining there, mostly old and sick who were unable of leaving. Bashir al-Assad claimed that the Palestinians, who are Sunni, had risen up against him and his Shia allies joining the terrorists which he was fighting in the beginning of the civil war and since. This was his excuse for attempting to eradicate these camps and the people trapped within. These attacks have continued periodically ever since getting less coverage with each attack as if it comes under covered that and it is old news. Anyways, these Palestinians are being slaughtered by other Arabs; we cannot blame Israel so it really does not matter.

 

Now the violence against Palestinians has spread to Lebanon. Over the past week fighting has spread across the Ein el-Hilweh camp outside Sidon. The violence has lasted much of the past week with a ceasefire finally being reached over the weekend and security forces provided by Fatah presumably are now in control of the camp and the violence has quieted for now. The news reports all make the same references that Fatah Palestinian forces are engaged with radical Islamists without making any further identification of exactly who these radical Islamists might be. One can only wonder why there has been no further identification as seen in the captions of the pictures below from the Associated Press. The one name used was reported in the demands by Palestinian Security Forces demanding that the Islamist fighter Bilal Badr surrender to authorities. A resident reported that parts of the camp suffered damage from shelling. This creates a threatening picture as the Palestinian Security Forces do not reportedly have artillery or other heavy weapons larger than RPG’s. Many of the refugees have attempted fleeing the camp largely being held in Mosques hoping to return to their homes and praying they have homes to return to. An AFP correspondent has reported that the refugee camp has suffered major damage with a number of residents having been trapped inside their homes throughout the fighting. UNWRA has begun attempting to return the camp to some degree of normalcy with dozens of young people volunteering on Friday to clean the streets of damage and rubble left by the fighting. The camp reportedly is home to over fifty-thousand Palestinians refugees including at least six-thousand Syrian refugees fleeing that violence only to now suffer more Arab on Arab violence.

 

A member of the Palestinian Fatah Movement fires an RPG during clashes that erupted between the Palestinian Fatah Movement and Islamists in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh near the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, April 9, 2017. Ein el-Hilweh, the largest of 12 Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, is notorious for its lawlessness and is home to some extremists who sympathize with the Islamic State group and al-Qaida. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

A member of the Palestinian Fatah Movement fires an RPG during clashes that erupted between the Palestinian Fatah Movement and Islamists in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh near the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, April 9, 2017. Ein el-Hilweh, the largest of 12 Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, is notorious for its lawlessness and is home to some extremists who sympathize with the Islamic State group and al-Qaida. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

 

Smokes rise during a clashes between the Palestinian Fatah Movement and Islamists in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh near the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, April 9, 2017. Ein el-Hilweh, the largest of 12 Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, is notorious for its lawlessness and is home to some extremists who sympathize with the Islamic State group and al-Qaida. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

Smokes rise during a clashes between the Palestinian Fatah Movement and Islamists in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh near the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, April 9, 2017. Ein el-Hilweh, the largest of 12 Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, is notorious for its lawlessness and is home to some extremists who sympathize with the Islamic State group and al-Qaida. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

 

This story will receive slim coverage, perhaps a blurb between the closing commercials and credits on the hourly news cycle once or twice every few days, a story almost in passing as an afterthought. Why has the slaughter of Palestinian Arabs in refugee camps in the thousands over the last five years escaped major coverage by the media in the Western media, especially the liberal media in the United States and across Europe? Where have the urgent demands emanating from the United Nations with cries of hysterias over the murder of these innocents, and Palestinian civilians even? Why no top of the fold, bold, two inch headlines in the New York Times telling of the slaughter of these Palestinians who want no more than to be allowed to live in peace and seek work? Perhaps the reasons are simple; Israel is completely missing from this picture. These are Palestinian Arabs behind barbed wire, refused the right to work in most professions, especially outside the camps, refused permission for normalization into the population despite the fact that a number of these refugees have families residing outside the camps who are citizens of Lebanon and also in Syria though many of them are now refugees themselves from the Syrian conflict. These are the forgotten Palestinian Arab refugees who only count as part of the presumed five to eight million refugees descendants of the original seven-hundred-thousand refugees, their children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren and perhaps also great-great-grandchildren all forced to remain in the camps where their children will also be forced to live presumably permanently. These camps are home to the only refugees in the world who became refugees by heredity never to be permitted to merge with the society with which they share history, language, religion and often have relatives residing in the very nations refusing to permit their normalization. Why are these people being tortured in this way? They are the Arab weapon which they hope will destroy Israel when their demands that they be granted residence and citizenship in Israel and then vote in an Arab government which will destroy the Jewish population and end the Jewish State. The news will not report this either because to any normal mind this is beyond acceptable and borderline ridiculous. Their being murdered by other Arabs is not new, not of any consequence to the Arab world and unwanted by their own people but the world will some day declare war on Israel because Israel will refuse to accept these refugees as a problem Israel must solve. Israel sees this situation as what it is, an Arab problem and a sign of their neuroses. And that problem continues anew with more bombings and fighting in Syria which threatens to return to Lebanon as well.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 27, 2017

What Happens When the World is Warned and Ignores the Warning

 

Well, the United Nations has been informed and their response was a simple, “Ho Hum” and they went on as if nobody had spoken. They claim that the people have not said anything and query, “Would not the people protest such things?” But why would people make any complaint over their own nation having the military place their weapons in their towns as they would be told this was for their protection. But who is protecting what? Are these weapons of war to protect the people of the town or are the people protecting the weapons from attack? This depends on who you ask and their perspective of the entire matter. Those whose weapons are spread amongst the towns and even in homes will claim that the safety of the people and the weapons are all one and the same. They will tell the world that this is necessary because their enemy is likely to attack at any time with no warning and that this at least allows some of the weapons to survive to defend the people. The enemy is one of the most vicious and heinous of enemies in the entire area after all they have been condemned by the United Nations so many times as to be near countless. Their perfidy has been established by the United Nations Human Rights Council at virtually every meeting even requiring special sessions just to address their acts against people across the entire region. Almost every country across much of the nations included in the MENA alliance (Middle East and North Africa) repeatedly bring complaints against Israel to such an extent that they include almost all measures taken for the nation’s defenses. Anyway, the people have volunteered as they are patriotic and know what the risks are and are willing to assist their national military in this attempt to protect the nation as they see this as their patriotic duty. Additionally, they realize that the military will also be in their location which will only serve to make their towns and villages even safer.

 

There are a few things which should probably be added to clarify this picture. The evil entity which requires all this using of civilian homes and locating weapons stores, rocket launchers and the rockets themselves in and around towns and villages is, in case you did not guess, Israel. The claim is being made by the Lebanese Army. The Lebanese Army has another name with which you are likely more familiar with, Hezballah. Recently the Lebanese government, which is heavily influenced if not controlled by Hezballah, merged their military with the forces of Hezballah, a merger where it is difficult to know which one was more heavily armed. The main difference for Hezballah is they will gain some American weaponry and weapon systems. These weapons and weapon systems include, but are not limited to, M-4 assault rifles, M-16 assault rifles, Barrett M82 50 cal. sniper rifle, M-24 7.62 mm, sniper rifle, M249 squad automatic weapon (SAW), M-60 30 cal. machine gun, M-2 (Ma Deuce) 50 cal. machine gun, M-203 grenade launcher, M-72 LAW (light antitank weapon), M-141 bunker defeat munition (BDM), M-40 105mm recoilless rifle, MK-19 40 mm grenade launcher, and BGM-71 TOW (“Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided antitank weapon). These are the firearms, but wait, there’s more. Wait for it, because here are the vehicles they have provided care of the United States. Starting with the tanks they have M60 Patton main battle tank, M48 Patton main battle tank, M1 Abrams main battle tank, Humvees, M113 armored personnel carrier, AIFV-B-C25 Armored Infantry Fighting Vehicle, M109 self-propelled 155mm howitzer, M198 self-propelled 155mm howitzer, M114 155 mm howitzer, M101 and M102 105 mm howitzer plus jeeps and other various military vehicles.

 

The one item which simply screams at you is the M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks which were recently delivered a mere two years ago. The Obama Administration and military personnel, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a direct query of the Lebanese government as to whether their military was also under or cooperating with the Hezballah terrorist group. From the best we have been able to determine, the question was very likely phrased something like this, “Our friends, the Lebanese government, could you tell us that your military is not aligned in any way and is completely separate from the Hezballah terror group as if it is we could not in good conscience provide you with the A1M1 Abrams main battle tanks.” And somehow the Lebanese government provided the expected guarantees that their military was not aligned in any way and is completely separate from the Hezballah terror group. What a surprise. Who would have ever predicted such an answer? We are surprised as we thought that it was known and understood by even the most casual of observers that Hezballah now ruled Lebanon and had complete control and full access to all military and other such equipment owned or operated by the Lebanese government. We had been under the idea that Hezballah had a majority coalition in the government and had placed their personnel alongside the generals and other command officers within the Lebanese military and that the two had full operational cooperation in all means and measures since immediately after the 2006 Second Lebanon War with Israel as Hezballah realized they required similar weapons systems to the Israelis, particularly when it came to armored fighting vehicles such as main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, wheeled fighting vehicles and mobile artillery. As Hezballah is not about to be capable of buying such weaponry on the open market because even should some government feel inclined to sell Hezballah such weapons to use against Israel or Islamic State, doing so would place them in a position where they would be considered a pariah amongst nations due to selling weaponry, especially weapons of war, to a known and universally recognized terrorist group.

 

This brings us down to the specific problems. Imagine if Israel were placing their weapons of war inside its towns, cities or villages; placing artillery pieces, rockets and/or missiles as well as their launchers within built up civilian areas and even within people’s homes. Other than the United Nations and the European Union and their member states denouncing Israel, there would be calls universally for weapons embargoes and possibly general trade embargoes and Israel would be excised from the community of nations. But when Israel pointed out to the world that the villages and towns across Lebanon were being utilized by Hezballah to locate their rockets and missiles, their launchers, entrances to their tunnel and bunker systems (which keep their fighters safe but are forbidden to the Lebanese people even including those whose houses hide their entrances), MLRV’s (multiple launch rocket vehicle), fighting and ambush positions, and weapons and ammunitions caches. Hezbollah reportedly has gone so far as to offer reduced-priced-housing to Shiite families who allowed the terrorist group to store rocket launchers in their homes. The Israelis even declassified one of their military maps which had been researched through intelligence and surveillance drones allowing for an accurate and precise location and classification of each location (see map below). Our map only displays the weapons distribution in the Nabatieh region of Lebanon which can be used as a representation of the remainder of Lebanon. This area is also including part of the Bekaa Valley, a Hezballah stronghold, but the entirety of the areas south of the Litani River, which was presumably prevented from Hezballah returning and building up their provisions, weapons stores, rocket and missile launchers and their bunker and tunnel systems by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) which was presumably doubled in size in order to enforce such a return by Hezballah, has now been transformed into an area bristling with offensive weaponry and underground facilities. Their failure was complete enough that one might even suspect they assisted in Hezballah’s efforts in rearming the areas south of the Litani River (see lower map). These was the same identical region from which Hezballah launched their murder and kidnapping raid on an Israeli squad patrolling the border killing eight Israeli soldiers and taking three captive, who they later simply executed.

 

Declassified Map of Hezballah’s Military Infrastructure in Lebanon

Declassified Map of Hezballah’s Military Infrastructure in Lebanon

 

Southern Lebanon South of Litani River to the Israel Border

Southern Lebanon South of Litani River to the Israel Border

 

The reality is that Nasrallah has been threatening Israel rattling sabers and dealing threats. His big threat is that he promises to destroy the huge ammonia storage tank in Haifa, and a nuclear reactor in Dimona. His threats are directly aimed to emphasize high casualty events and declaring the improved accuracy of the Iranian provided missiles which also have far greater range and accuracy than those Hezballah possessed in the 2006 war. He has also expressed that targeting Eilat is within their capabilities which is the southernmost tip of Israel and the furthest from Lebanon. Nasrallah has also warned that when he strikes Israel that it will be due to the Israeli strikes on Hezballah soldiers and innocents in Syria. What he has left out is that the Israeli strikes have been targeting advanced weapons being smuggled into Lebanon which are absolute game changers such as advanced anti-aircraft batteries and heavy weapons. These are legal attacks as Hezballah is a recognized and universally declared terrorist group. Nasrallah is now claiming that these attacks are on Lebanese military stores using the fact that Hezballah has taken control of the Lebanese military absorbing their armaments and the majority of their troops which already consisted of a fairly high overlapping of personnel. The world will soon realize that there is no longer an independent nation of Lebanon but that it has become a simple cover story for Hezballah. The world will likely continue to turn a blind eye to the reality in Lebanon for as long as possible as to do otherwise would create a situation where all travel and trade with Lebanon would become problematic, and the world has sufficient problems and is not seeking another. As far as Europe, the United Nations and likely just about everybody else, the situation in Lebanon will be treated as a purely Israeli problem. The world really does not desire to accept another Syria. What is really sad is that Syria is much of the reason that Hezballah has taken such complete control over Lebanon as Iran simply desired that Lebanon become the final peg in their Shiite Crescent from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea which includes Iran, much of Iraq, Lebanon and they are working on cementing Syria once they retake Syria from Islamic State and the rest of the rebels (see map below). Iran has been working to establish this slash across the Middle East providing them with an opening on the Mediterranean Sea allowing them to become a major player in the Muslim world and as their initial play to bring Shiite Islam into the mainstream and end it being simply the little sideshow playing second fiddle to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Sunni world. This is why the war in Syria is so important to the Iranians, but a war solely in Syria is becoming hard to sell both for Iran and Hezballah at home.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

There is a solution to the Syria dilemma, and that solution unfortunately is Israel. If Iran can sell the war in Syria as their next front against Israel, their people would be more willing to accept the losses being taken by Iranian soldiers from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) fighting in Syria. They could sell such as further support for Hezballah against Israel claiming that Hezballah also sees the advantage to having another front against Israel through the Golan Heights if they can gain control of Syria. Hezballah has all but completely taken control of Lebanon and one last war with Israel and they can use such to finish their takeover and totally divorce the Christians and other opponents from the public domain. Those who have attempted to rescue Lebanon from Hezballah and keep them from taking complete control have been fighting a slowly losing battle. Lebanon is but a slip and a fall from falling into the graveyard of failed terror controlled states across the MENA expanse. Already there are Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan and Iraq with some even including Afghanistan which is falling inch by inch to the Taliban. Even Iran could be considered to be a nation controlled by a terrorist group commanded by the Mullahs and enforced by the IRGC and religious police. The Middle East is facing the danger of falling to any of a number of terrorist entities including but not limited to the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, Hezballah, Taliban, Iran as the IRGC, and other groups such as Boko Harem and smaller groups from Sudan, Somalia and throughout lower Sahara states including Nigeria, Kenya, Niger, Chad and others in what has been called the African Transition Zone (see map below). This is an area currently under threat by Islamist terrorists and considered to now becoming more and more unstable. These are the areas where in the future we will see new failed states in the future. This is an area of the world which, were the West not under threat itself, it would be receiving greater attention but with the world currently so unstable, these nations are going to be left on their own for the immediate future.

 

African Transition Zone

African Transition Zone

 

The greatest threat looking at the world in the near term future is the area surrounding Syria. Within this area is Lebanon which will soon be lost to the Hezballah terrorists who all but control the area and should there be yet another war started by Hezballah with Israel, part of their reasoning will be that any opposition to their complete control will be more easily destroyed while the world is ignoring their war with Israel and thus not looking at what is happening inside Lebanon beyond what Israel is doing that they can condemn. The United Nations and European Union will both play a large part as they condemn Israel defending herself against Hezballah and their rocket and missile placements within people’s homes, hospitals schools and other public buildings and locations such that they can picture suffering Lebanese victims of Israeli strikes, of course the remains of the rocket launcher in the living room in the bed room will be ignored as that is of little consequence and certainly no reason for a bomb to be dropped on a house. Then there will be the stories of the people who lost everything in the evil Israeli raid and the higher death count than the count in Israel. We will hear all about the disproportionate damage and disproportionate civilian casualties and we will almost hear the question of where are the dead Jews equal to the dead Lebanese. There will be no mention of the obvious difference where the Lebanese are forced to be human shields while Israel provides shelters and defends their civilians keeping them as far as possible from the war, not the first line victims as Hezballah will do. The world will stop turning and all eyes will be on Israel and the lack of casualties by comparison and they will demand to know why so few Israelis have died, why so few, well, do we even need say it?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 25, 2017

Return of Permanent Limbo in Israel

 

The Trump opportunity has passed at least for the summer. There was the opportunity for a change in Israel and the standoff with the Arab world. The Israeli hesitation over moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, specifically the warnings of potential violence which, according to Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was something Israel was not prepared to face at the time forced President Trump to hesitate and at best postpone any actions on the embassy or possibly totally abandoned, time will tell. President Trump was elected President with a Republican platform which had refused to continue with the two state solution as part of its Middle East policy, a first for United States policy since the Oslo Accords were signed in September of 1993. The Republicans managed to do something which apparently far too many Israeli politicians are unprepared to do, reject the paradigm of the two state solution and accept something entirely separate. President Trump has stated even since taking office that he is ready to accept whatever decision is presentable to the individuals, which guarantees that he is open to almost any solution providing it is a workable solution. Between President Trump’s statements, the appointments made concerning Israel and the Republican platform, anything is potentially acceptable once one takes all of these particulars together and weighs all of the possibilities. Unfortunately it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not prepared to take any alternative before other issues including but not limited to Iran, Hezballah, Islamic State and the stability of the areas surrounding Israel are more secured and balanced. Netanyahu also is most concerned with the Iranian race to produce nuclear weapons and properly fears their finally becoming nuclear weapons capable, or worse, having tested and produced a nuclear weapons arsenal which would permit them to project power and terrorism throughout the entirety of the Middle East and across North Africa threatening Europe and possibly beyond to include the United States, China and even Russia. None of the current main nuclear weapons powers should consider their position secure as the potential for Iran to commit nuclear terrorism must not be considered as impossible or out of the question as such will be a definitive and dangerous possibility once Iran has produced miniaturized nuclear weaponry, something they are predicted to have the capability to produce within the next decade.

 

Another threat which Israel is facing has ties to Iran as well. Syria is allied with Iran and Hezballah which controls Lebanon under Iranian direction to the point that Hezballah commands the Military of Lebanon using their strength in the war in Syria against the Sunni rebels including the Islamic State. This conflagration which has destroyed much if not almost all of Syrian infrastructure outside of a thin strip along the Mediterranean Sea, particularly Latakia where the Russians have their active port facilities in the Mediterranean Sea. The losses being taken by Iran and Hezballah in the Syrian catastrophic civil hostilities have produced much consternation within their respective publics which is demanding good and understandable reasoning as to why they should continue to support such bloodshed. Thusfar they have not been rewarded with results which show that their involvement is of any worth as Syria is beginning to appear as a killing field where they are being asked to sacrifice for no good reason. There is a building demand that Assad be replaced allowing for an end to a seemingly endless and pointless waste of resources. The one means for making the Syrian war to appear to have an acceptable reason, at least in Lebanon as well as much of Iran and vast numbers of the IRGC and Hezballah soldiers and their families would be an expansion of the war to include a full on war with Israel. Such a war against the Zionist entity would make the efforts in Syria appear to have a payoff which would be understood and well received thus rejuvenating the support for the forces which are fighting in Syria and an excuse for the losses. Such a decision requires for Iran, as it is the Iranian leadership, the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader who decide, to decide to take such a move as they will be the ones providing the majority of the military resources should such a war be initiated. The cost of such a war for Syria would be inconsequential as much of the nation is already in ruins and most of the military supplies would be provided by Iran. On the other hand, for Hezballah such a war would be a double sided sword cutting both ways as Lebanon has not been near as torn asunder as has Syria. Any war with Israel which included Hezballah would also endanger much of the infrastructure south of the Litani River and the length of the Bekaa Valley as well as parts of Beirut as well as potentially the Beirut International Airport should it be utilized by Iran to fly in provisions for Hezballah using the airstrips of this airport.

 

Where losing men and munitions fighting in Syria is growing less and less popular, a war with Israel if it should bring destruction raining down within Lebanon itself could backfire. While it is possible to have Hezballah troops only attack Israel from areas such as across the Golan Heights, this would not guarantee that Israeli responses would only be targeting Hezballah forces in Syria and not their rocket stores and command and control headquarters within Syria. This would be a definite possibility as Hezballah has sufficient stores of rockets and missiles provided by Iran and placed under the noses of UNIFIL forces assigned by the United Nations to prevent exactly that buildup, they failed completely. These rockets pose an existential threat to Israel and should Hezballah forces be fighting Israel, even if just across the Golan Heights, Israel could not permit Hezballah to have the opportunity to choose the point at which to introduce these assets into such a conflict. In any conflict with Hezballah, Israel correctly feels that their first and most important targets are the stores of rockets and missiles, their launching facilities and the command and control nexuses in order to remove this threat from their civilians, their infrastructure and the Israeli Defense Forces. Even with the Arrow systems, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, the well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles held by Hezballah could be launched in such a manner as to overwhelm the Israeli defenses and thus inflict unacceptable damage. Where Israel has exceptional interception capabilities, no such system is one-hundred percent successful and with the numbers of weapons Hezballah alone has, not even counting the potential from Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian stores, Israel would be hard pressed to rely on interception thus only destruction of these threats before they can be utilized is the only answer.

 

There is another set of reasons which might cause Iran to seek a war with Israel, and these include Russia and the United States. The Iranians would probably desire testing President Trump as well as pressing him to take a stand one way or the other concerning supporting Israel. If Iran can show that President Trump supports Israel against them, they could attempt to portray themselves as leading the fight against the Zionists and use any United States support as proof that President Trump was fighting a war against Islam. They would use all the claims by the left and the United States liberal media who claimed that the immigration restraint against seven terror prone nations which were so labeled by the Obama Administration and simply that classification was used by President Trump for his imposing an immigration hold until proper vetting could be arranged for these nations but Iran could use the media claims of that being President Trump starting a war against Islam. This would be blown into a full-fledged campaign by President Trump and the United States in supporting Israel as simply the next step in Trump’s war on Islam which Iran would claim they and Hezballah were fighting for the entire Muslim world and in the name of the Prophet Mohammad. The Iranians could attempt to persuade some, if not all, the Gulf States to join them in this noble war against the evil Zionist entity and then attempt to pull Turkey’s Erdogan into the war using popular pressure to drag him into a war thus using his own program of using anti-Semitism to raise his own support levels. How much success Iran might have in turning the Islamic world against Israel and the United States could be debated but results would need to wait to be seen. Further, Iran could use such a war with Israel as a means of forcing Russia to take sides thus driving a wedge between Russia and the United States or driving a wedge between the United States and Israel as Trump would have to choose which side to inflame should Russia be forced to support Iran against Israel. This could lead to a whole new proxy war in the Middle East pitting the two powers, Russia and the United States on opposing sides and once again drag much, if not all, of the Arab world into the Russian sphere of influence and heighten the risk of embroiling the entire Middle East in a war even broader in scope than the 1948 War where the Arab League attempted to wipe Israel from the map. Now the idea of wiping Israel from the map is a wholly, or is it holy, Iranian concept. Iran has threatened to open a front against Israel as a means of leading the rest of the Islamic world into a general war with Israel and granting themselves with the title of the great leaders of the new Caliphate which is what they would use as their alliance’s title so as to give it an Islamic rallying cry. Iran has already made some inroads with some of the Gulf States much to the chagrin of the Saudi Royals who used to have an iron grip on these states.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

Further reasoning behind Iran taking the lead in a charge to try and bring down Israel is to bring themselves to the fore of the Islamic world and to attempt to sell their brand of Shia Islam as the real bold, brave and action center for all Islam and thus start to turn the Islamic world from Sunni to Shiite. Iran has had this dream to form a crescent of Shia states across the heart of the Middle East, their Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon crescent which was looking good until Syria disintegrated. What Iran needs now is some means by which to force much of the Syrian resistance to come across to their side and thus reestablish their hold on most if not all of Syria. Iran might even try to win the Kurdish to their side by sacrificing a small section of northwestern Iran and northern Iraq along with some of northeastern Syria forming a Kurdish nation state if they will ally and take up Shia Islam. This would sandwich the Sunnis in central Iraq placing them in a very precarious position which just might force many to accept Shia Islam in exchange for protection from Islamic State. This would leave Iran with a smaller set of opponents to their taking the lead as the great power in Islam allowing their reestablishment of the power which once was Persia. With such a success and Russian backing, the Iranians might even be able to really crack the back of Sunni Islam and convert the Muslim Brotherhood over to Shia Islam if Iran would work with them to remove President Sisi in Egypt and place the Muslim Brotherhood back into power in Egypt which could be assisted with pressure from the south using their friendly relations with the Sudan as their wedge. From this they could then take control of the Horn of Africa and complete their vanquishing of their opposition in Yemen and now have Saudi Arabia surrounded. All of this is speculation and highly unlikely but this is also seen by the Mullahs as potentially plausible if only they could gain an upper hand along the Gulf States and win over many in the Islamic world through a war with Israel. The one catch there is that any war with Israel promises to be as short as Israel can possibly make it which would very possibly not turn out so well for Hezballah or Lebanon. The only thing that Iran would not be risking is the infrastructure of Syria. Also, getting Russia to work against Israel is iffy at best as Russia and Israel have already been working in cooperation sharing intelligence and Israel warning the Russians before striking at targets in Syria or near the Syrian Lebanese border in the Bekaa Valley. Add to that the news that the missile shot from the sky by an Israeli Arrow System was a Russian made SA-5 missile proving that the Israeli military technology is everything it is cracked up to be and this should make Putin wary of any plans to go against Israel. Iran would be treading dangerously trying to force such a conflict and may find they could lose Russian assistance in Syria and that Russia might just take Western Syrian coastal cities as their own just as they did the Crimea with one difference, Israel would welcome Russia as their new friend in the region and that would leave Iran weaker for their efforts.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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