Beyond the Cusp

June 4, 2019

Israel Facing Challenges but Remains Paralyzed

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:59 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Israel is facing challenges, that is probably one of our biggest understatements. Yahya Sinwar, the current Hamas Leader and former leader of the Hamas Military Wing and one of its founding members and an extremist with zealous hatred for Zionism and Jews, has recently threatened that he would strike Tel Aviv with twice as many rockets should hostilities break out. He paid homage to Iran for providing rocket motors, actual rockets of various sizes, ranges and payloads thanking them profusely. Yahya Sinwar is making threats speaking of what he will do should war break out all the while planning various numbers and types of attacks all in an attempt to murder Israelis, destroy any production, destroy IDF positions hoping to kill or injure Israeli soldiers, launching kites and balloons with incendiary devices attached targeting crop lands, wildlife preserves, forests, kibbutzim, communities and wherever else they strike the ground and a new wrinkle with the introduction of drones dropping relatively large incendiary packets on targets as well as the normal rockets with several-hundred rockets fired about one month ago starting in early May virtually all targeting civilian targets. These were fired in order to disrupt the Eurovision contest in Tel Aviv but fortunately the few rockets fired towards Tel Aviv were intercepted by the Iron Dome systems as were numerous other rockets. Still, despite the great record of the Iron Dome, every system has limits and a few rockets reached targets destroying some structures including homes with at least one person killed and a number wounded with others suffering shock requiring treatment. These Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacks have struck kindergartens, pre-schools, residential areas, playgrounds and other similar civilian targets and almost none targeting anything of a military nature such as IDF bases or positions. So, Yahya Sinwar is threatening to strike more civilian targets and perhaps attempt a rocket swarm attack on Tel Aviv in an attempt to guarantee some rockets strike the city as if he were the one on the defense and not as being the one responsible for instigating conflict and violence. Reporting, as the article above, will use titles and writing like, “Israel launches strikes after hundreds of rockets fired from Gaza,” implying that Israel fires first and only after reporting about Israel striking, do they report that Israel fired in response to attacks and not instigating them.

 

Then there is the Iranian armed and trained army in southern Lebanon and engaged in Syria in the form of Hezballah. This terrorist force has estimated at least one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes, ranges, payloads and targeting abilities. The image below depicts some of the rockets and missiles Hezballah used during the last conflict and is not a complete reflection of their current capabilities which have been augmented and improved with many of their rockets given guidance upgraded into missiles. Two reports based on Israeli intelligence reveal the GPS-guidance upgrades meant to improve the rockets’ accuracy, have been provided by Iran using the IRGC. The lower map shows the underground locations of the facilities, where the guidance packages were added to rockets transforming them into guided missiles, located close to the Beirut International Airport, the location of these systems being imported. This was amongst other signs that Iran is upgrading Hezballah capabilities which implies that either these upgraded weapons are for use in the Syrian civil war or Iran has plans for another war along the Israeli northern border. This was further suggested when IDF units discovered infiltration tunnels from Lebanon into northern Israel ranging in length, depth and sophistication implying their improved technology being provided leading to the more advanced deeper tunnels (bottom picture showing inside one tunnel). With Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah all linked to Iran and taking their orders from Tehran, as Hamas admitted the latest rocket attacks were ordered by the Iranian government, the worst case scenario where Israel would face terrorist attacks from all three groups forcing Israel to defend both the northern and southern borders simultaneously is growing more and more inevitable. Currently, Hamas is making the loudest threats, but that does not rule out Hezballah also taking part in any new aggressions against Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezbollah’s Secret Sites for Conversion of Inaccurate Rockets into Precision Guided Missiles
 

 

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently took shots at Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, claiming he has failed to protect Israel, Tweeting, “A few Arab rulers believe that if they follow Netanyahu, they’ll be able to achieve their illusions. But Netanyahu has failed to protect Israel, despite his Iron Dome, so how can he protect THEM?” Additionally, Iran held Al-Quds Day rallies replete with chants against the Saudi royal family, the Islamic State group mingled with the traditional cries of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” There was also the apparently mandatory burning of American and Israel flags along with effigies of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Quoting from the article, “Death to the House of Saud and Daesh (IS),” demonstrators chanted. “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and “Death to the UK.” Well, guess we should be honored to have such distinguished list of other nations with which Iran apparently is having their difficulties, though we were unaware of their problems with the UK as they are still signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Still, much of the reporting will only include their animosity towards Israel and President Trump.

 

The Iranian threat to the world should not be ignored as it is a real threat to begin a horrific war using every weapon at their disposal which we fear includes a fair number of nuclear warheads and missiles with the range and targeting accuracy to cause major damage to all in the Middle East and into Northern Africa with direct threats against Saudi Arabia along with her Gulf States allies as well as Egypt, Jordan and Israel. Iran has also mastered launching ballistic missiles with over a thousand-mile ranges out of cargo ships where the missiles are hidden under what appear to be containers and freight packaging. The number of these ships so outfitted is unknown as well as their registration and nation of origins. Iran could easily utilize any of their allies’ cargo vessels for such purpose which would imply that they might have such missile launching ships licensed with Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia or any of several other allies as well as any nation with loose regulatory control over ship licenses. Simply put, Iranian cargo vessels with concealed ballistic missiles could have almost any national flag from amongst the many options making detecting them even more difficult. Such ballistic missiles could have any of a number of warheads ranging from high explosive and incendiary all the way to chemical or biological warheads or potentially nuclear or EMP warheads which cause damage beyond most countries ability to repair or even survive. Add to the equation that Iran sent a naval fleet intending to station the ships for a few months as an intended threat and as a message to President Trump that America is not as safe as perhaps he thinks.

 

Meanwhile, many in the media and those with a distinctly leftist political view will claim that all the problems in the Middle East, if not the world, are directly traceable to Israel while ignoring Iran. All one needs do to realize the truth is look around the Middle East and look at who has fighters there, be they terrorist provided for by Iran or their IRGC foreign fighters. In Lebanon there is what has to be considered a terror army in Hezballah. Move across to Syria and there are Hezballah fighters and IRGC units. Moving on to Yemen and the two, Hezballah and the IRGC, are both involved here as well. Then there is the Tri-border region where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have a common border and all three blame the other two for the problems in the region (see picture below). Iran has also used the Houthis and their assisting IRGC and Hezballah forces in Yemen to launch rockets into Saudi Arabia including into Riyadh, the Saudi capital city. Iran is set on establishing their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East as pictured in the lower picture below. While Israel addresses threats on her borders not needing to seek more problems outside of Israel, Iran can be found across the Middle East operating either using IRGC units or terrorist entities they control from Iran across Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon while in a southern region we find Iranian influence in Yemen. This view of the region should dispel any illusions concerning which nation is spreading threats and conflicts across the Middle East with views on expanding further and that the nation in question is not Israel but instead is Iran. Iran is currently threatening to expand their efforts into Saudi Arabia and Israel while also ignoring the American warnings about Iranian aggressions, particularly those along the waterways where commerce and oil flow to the world and the Iranian threats to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz as well as threatening the United States Naval vessels in the region. The only question is exactly how far will Iran need to push the United States before President Trump will finally decide that they have crossed a red-line and are deserving of American wrath. Just as Hamas will probably cross beyond the limit of Israeli patience, Iran will push beyond American patience forcing a confrontation or worse. Something ugly is approaching this summer, and it will be decided upon by the Mullahs of Iran.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

May 9, 2019

Popping the Myths of Israeli War of Independence

 

We do not care how the wars sporadically started and stopped from May 15, 1948 onward with them lasting into mid 1949 before attaining armistices. Peace would be coming later with Egypt and even later Jordan, while technically Israel is still in a state of war with the other four Arab invading nations; Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Don’t worry if you did not realize this, probably a fair number of Israelis are unaware of the fact Israel is still at war. There are likely a set of armistice agreements ending hostilities, but we were unable to find any reference to such between Israel and Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Perhaps we will have to settle with the fact they are not shooting at us currently and be happy with that. But the Arab-Israeli War of 1948-9 was not born in a vacuum, there were a series of initiatives which were rejected outright and even the United Nations sought some settlement which also failed and so much more to talk about and see how we got to where we are today, celebrating our independence which was established the nightfall before the dawn brought on the war. So, where do we begin.

 

What is difficult to believe, but just the same is true, there was a point in time when the Arab world welcomed the founding of the Jewish State and agreed over borders and everything. The year is 1920, late April to be more accurate, in beautiful San Remo, Italy where the San Remo Conference set up the preliminaries for the Mandate System. Included in this were two Mandates which are of interest to our telling, the French and British Mandates. These were set along with Italian and Spanish holdings (see map below). France was charged to form a Christian State and an Arab State while Britain was charged with establishing a Jewish State and subsequently also an Arab State. France divided their region forming Syria (Arab) and Lebanon (Christian) while Britain divided its region into Jordan (originally Transjordan and Arab) and Israel (originally referred to as Palestine and Jewish). The French attempt to make a Christian state in Lebanon was fragile from the very beginning and is close to becoming ruled by Hezballah who has military control and shares Parliamentary control. Were things to come to a head in Lebanon, the Christians would be hard pressed to mount any resistance to a complete Islamic takeover. The British never actually established a Jewish state and instead simply announced they were pulling out as of mid-May 1948 and washing their hands of whatever developed.

 

Colonial Structure Post World War I defined by Treaties from initial surrender in 1919 through the San Remo Conference setting up the Mandate System in 1922 plus Sykes-Picot redrawing of much of the Middle East

Colonial Structure Post World War I defined by Treaties from initial surrender in 1919 through the San Remo Conference setting up the Mandate System in 1922 plus Sykes-Picot redrawing of much of the Middle East

 

This is where we start our story, the British are leaving and, on their way out, they are confiscating as many weapons as they can find in Jewish towns and Kibbutzim and for expediency’s sake, they are turning these weapons over to the Arab towns which were preparing to join the war against the Jews. The evening of May 14, 1948, Jewish day begins at sundown, so for Israelis it is the next day while the remainder of the world insists on daybreak or midnight, but it is almost sundown of May 14, 1948, or 6 Iyyar, 5708 on the Hebrew Calendar. So, it is Friday, May 14, 1948 at 4 PM, a full eight hours before the official end of the British Mandate, David Ben Gurion read out Israel’s Declaration of Independence at a moving ceremony at the Tel Aviv Museum (video below). There was no shooting, no artillery, no tanks, just celebratory cheers, singing of songs and general state of joyous exhilaration from the Jewish and even some Arab towns, farms and villages. That was it, the official beginning to the Jewish State followed by recognitions which can be viewed here. The celebrations carried on into the morning, especially in Tel Aviv. The Jews and their Arab friends knew what the morning was likely to bring, so they made the most of the few hours of peace that remained.

 

 

The next morning was to bring an assault with an intent which we have found was best described so succinctly by Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League at that time, who stated, “It will be a war of annihilation. It will be a momentous massacre in history that will be talked about like the massacres of the Mongols or the Crusades.” This was what was intended by the six Arab armies from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan which were perched on every border just awaiting the command or simply the sun to rise so they could swarm across the lands on their way to the Mediterranean Sea wiping the Jews from the land retaking the region for Allah. Their invasion routes can be seen on the map below. For weeks ahead of the morning of May 15, 1948, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Amin al-Husseini implored the Arabs who were living between the Arab forces and the Mediterranean Sea, in Israel in simple terms, to evacuate to behind the Arab lines for their safety. His claim was this would permit the Arab armies to simply slaughter every single person they came upon. There were exceptions, namely those Arab villages and towns which were to assist the Arabs by sabotaging Israeli supply and communication lines and ambushing the Israelis from behind as they faced the Arab armies advance. The Mufti promised that the Arabs could follow the armies to the sea and partake of the riches of the Jews and all the spoils of war. This was awaiting the next morning after the joyous celebratory evening and night of the Jewish People returning to their ancestral homelands after approximately a two-thousand-year absence of Jewish rule over these lands. There was great joy and few worried about the next day, but there were the select people who did exactly that as they were the ones who were to defend this precious return.

 

Initial Invasion Routes by Arab Armies on May 15, 1948

Initial Invasion Routes by Arab Armies on May 15, 1948

 

This was, very simply put, an Arab initiated war of intended annihilation, not Israel’s War of Independence. Israeli independence came the second David Ben Gurion finished his speech. There was no war necessary. Israel had been declared and that should have been the end of everything except for the celebrations. There was no war, the Jews did not make some amphibious assault on the beaches and push the Arabs out of their nation of Palestine. There was no nation of Palestine and the Jews were already in the land with many having come in the late 1800’s and others who could trace their ancestry back to the times of Kings Saul, David and Solomon. These were the Jews who the Romans had allowed to remain and had resided in these lands for over three-thousand-years. That is an impressive family history to be able to recount, and they can do exactly that. Others returned over the centuries and had resided in these lands for hundred upon hundreds of years. Whenever the British had used the term Palestine or Palestinian, they were referring to Israel and the Jews. The Palestine Post became the Jerusalem Post, the Palestine Philharmonic Orchestra became the Israeli Philharmonic Orchestra and so on with names of banks, hardware stores, plumbing businesses and so much more. The Arabs had their own reference at that time, they were referred to as Arabs or Jordanian, Syrian, Egyptian, Iraqi or whatever nation their family names implied. The first time any Arab became a Palestinian was with the birth of the PLO in 1964. Why did the Arabs decide to take the mantle of Palestinians? That is easy to figure out once you understand the history, they intended to steal the history of the Jews claiming that the Arabs were the ones called Palestinians and the Jews were called, well, they never said what the Jews were called because their intent was always to be rid of them so who cares what names they were called by, anyway, that would just confuse things. Their hope was that nobody would bother with the actual history and they could pull a fast one. Well, what timing, just as the Western World decided not to actually teach history, the Arabs bet that nobody would know history, what timing.

 

World Recognition of Israel

World Recognition of Israel

 

Well, the celebrations ended rather abruptly around dawn as the first shots fired by the advancing Arab armies starting what would be more appropriately called The Arab War of Intended Annihilation instead of the Israeli War of Independence. Israeli independence had already been established and the war was over whether Israel would continue to exist or be killed at her birthing. The other misleading tale was that Israel won this war and took over additional lands. The only way this would have been true would be if Israel had extended her rule across the Jordan River, over the Golan Heights, into Lebanon and into the Sinai Peninsula. None of these were the result. What happened instead was Israel lost control of lands which included the Golan Heights, the Shomron (Jordan controlled this renaming it the West Bank) and the Gaza Strip which Egypt took control over. These are that troubling thing called facts. When the Arabs show maps showing Israel gaining land, they use the map of the plan offered by the United Nations in the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine under United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181. This was a nonbinding resolution which suggested a division of the land into Arab and a Jewish states. The Israelis were willing to accept this partition but the Arab League refused the plan planning on the annihilation of the Jews in its stead. When a United Nations General Assembly Resolution is rejected by any of the parties involved, it is forever negated and considered void as if it had never been proposed. So, the Arab League refusal ended any application of the division and the lands reverted to the original borders which was the Jordan River and the border between the Negev Desert and the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights (see maps below). The armistice lines have become the Arab definition of what the Israeli borders should revert to now despite when they were agreed upon the Arab League insisting that these armistice lines were not to ever be interpreted or expected to be actual borders. Their intent was to deny the existence of Israel as it did not have actual borders. Now they demand a return by Israel to those armistice lines so they can have a redo on the Six Day War, another war which was intended to destroy the Jewish State which failed. During the June 1967 Six Day War, Israel liberated the lands lost in 1948-9 as well as gaining the Sinai Peninsula and some claim the Golan Heights.

 

Resolution 181 Division, Israel on the morning of May 15, 1948, Israel after the War and losing lands of Gaza and West Bank

Resolution 181 Division,
Israel on the morning of May 15, 1948,
Israel after the War and losing lands of Gaza and West Bank

 

That is why calling the war which began the morning of May 15, 1948, the Israeli War of Independence is actually a misnomer. Israel would have had her independence even had the Arabs not attacked that morning as she had declared her independence the afternoon before. The celebrations had gone on well into the night and even until the Arabs invaded the established nation of Israel. A better name for this war might be the Arab War of Intended Annihilation of Israel or the Failed Arab War to Erase Israel. Now that war is being fought by Arab proxies of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza which might be named Hamastan. Over the years, the Arab world acquired great amounts of financial assistance from the Western nations along with the United Nations and for a while the Soviet Union into the coffers of these terror entities all with the hope of peace or an end to Israel. Many of those contributing to these entities desired the latter while all claimed otherwise simply claiming they desired for the Palestinian Arabs to have their homeland back. There never has been an Arab homeland or a nation called Palestine and the main reason that so many Arabs resided in what became Israel was due to the British in cooperation with the Arab League kept moving Arabs into the land to prevent the Jews from being able to declare their homeland. The Palestinian Arab refugee problem is largely, if not entirely, due to the Arabs heeding the Mufti and then when the fighting was over, instead of allowing them to return, something Israel was willing to allow, they placed their brothers and sisters into refugee camps and have kept them there ever since. They basically incarcerated just over six-hundred-thousand fellow Arabs in these camps. Over the ensuing decade, the Arab world expelled over eight-hundred-thousand Jews after denuding them of all assets and anything of worth which Israel took in and remarkably simply incorporated every last one into their society despite much hardship and difficulty. Israel did not incarcerate them permanently in camps to use as a political weapon against the Arab nations which expelled them, Israel accepted their fellow Jews with mixed joy and hardship but in the end, we are all living together mostly in harmony. Give Israel another fifty years and there will be no differentiating who came originally from where and there will be more Israelis like myself with a European father and an Arab national origin mother. In my case it was due to World War II as my British father fought in Burma and when injured he was treated in Bombay (Mumbai) where he met my Iraqi origins mother, and the rest is history. The majority in Israel is simply a case of opposites attract and Jews are intermarrying which will allow us to become completely reinstituted as a single people whose histories and futures are forever to be intertwined.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 1, 2019

Iran Collecting All the Best of Friends

 

One of the questions Israelis with friends in Europe and North America hear much of the time asks if we worry about our enemies. By enemies, they most often mean those nations on our borders and, of late, they add in Iran. Our answer usually goes something near to we worry more about those professing to be our friends than our declared enemies. We tell them that we know exactly what to expect from each of our enemies but it is our friends who we cannot predict how they will act according to stimuli, react to the changing world, handle pressures we see coming at them and proactively act to avoid some of the worst problems they are soon to face. Our friends find our concern for their well-being and safety often misplaced and think we should be far more concerned about the threats being made against us and all the moves by the United Nations to single us out, Ireland passing legislation criminalizing trade with businesses run by Jews in the Shomron, the one-hundred-thirty-thee nations which make up the “Group of 77” electing Palestine under Mahmoud Abbas as their leader to represent them (146 countries voted for this Resolution whilst only three – Israel, the U.S. and Australia – voted against, 15 countries abstained and the remaining 29 states did not vote) or the recent American elections where anti-Israel positions took center stage. This is all not to mention the European Union, Britain about to elect Corbyn as Prime Minister, France playing with their own BDS movement, Italy doing the BDS thing as well with the rest of “free” Europe and Canada having a growing BDS movement north of the border. Why should we worry about the Arab world who only threatens to kill us when our friends are dancing with the devil, so to speak, and flirting with slowly cutting their relations with Israel. When I warned of this many decades ago while still in the United States, people claimed I must be losing my mind or I required psychiatric help with the number one answer always being, “America would never turn against Israel. That is the one constant that Israel can rely upon.” What scares me even worse is that most Israelis believe that to be true as well. Our advice to both of these camps, be afraid, be very afraid because what is coming will be a blizzard affecting United States-Israel relations and they are going to become very cold indeed, just wait a decade or two. Most of our friends are sliding in a direction which will lead to their separating from Israel and eventually turning to the other side unless some awakening occurs and they realize the dangers facing their societies and governances.

 

Meanwhile, allow us to start with Iran and the problems coming from that front. We just recently wrote an article titled, “Iran Threatens Israel with Missiles from Lebanon and Gaza” where we spoke about General Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran who was also making threats of the overwhelming military troubles which would befall Israel were she to “act stupidly.” What is always amusing is the constant use of the phrase, “Israel act stupidly,” which is almost always preceded and followed by all forms of threats. Well, now we have another Iranian military genius threatening Israel. He is the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and he recently warned Israel that, well, in our words, Armageddon is perched on our doorstep and ready to pounce in order to, “wipe out wrongdoers,” and further, “Today, the Zionists know that in any war they start, Lebanon would not be the only battlefront. They know that a new war would lead to their annihilation.” And then there is the list of nations which he claims are on the bandwagon and fully behind the Mad Mullahs of Tehran. Perhaps before continuing, we should allow you to hear him and if you do not speak Farsi, MEMRI has translated the video.

 

 

Wasn’t that just one of the most breathtaking speeches you have ever heard from an Iranian military commander. So, he informed Israel specifically and the world indirectly that Lebanese, Iraqis, Afghanis, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Yemenis are in Syria, and that is the new, modern, combat tested, trained and ready to go “united Islamic army.” Isn’t that simply the most terrifying thing you have ever heard in your lifetime, well, us neither. We thought about half or so of these nations are ones where Iran has all but taken over complete control. Let us see what we can see as Lebanon is basically run by Hezballah, Iran is rapidly and already, for all intents and purposes, is western Iran with a fair number of IRGC and regular Iranian Army units assisting with their war on the Kurds and the Sunni Muslims. Moving right along to Yemen, there are numbers of IRGC and Hezballah fighting troops and trainers working with the Houthis to rule that country. Syria is the crux of the fighting where Iran is calling in every and anybody to assist them in propping up Bashar al-Assad as the ruler of Syria and Iranian puppet even if they are required to kill the vast majority of Syrians and destroy most of the nation’s infrastructure to do so. The main concern of Iran has been their taking control of Lebanon (which they have controlled through Hezballah for decades now), Iraq, Syria and Yemen in order to establish their Shiite Iranian Crescent across the Middle East (see map below and the star in the Iranian Crescent covers Mecca and Medina which they have often claimed they will soon control). That leaves Afghanistan and Pakistan who Iran claims are there defending Bashir al-Assad and ready to pounce on Israel if the Zionists act stupidly and start a war. These Iranian military top brass sure are convinced that Israel is about to jump up and start a war with one of their friends. Of all the nations above which Iran appears to be unified with, the only ones in the correct proximity for Israel to attack are Syria (what’s left of it) and Lebanon. So, perhaps that should be explored.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

The first item one need know is that the forces fighting in Syria with Iran and Hezballah are irregular units from Afghanistan and Pakistan, not troops provided by these two nations. These are forces which worked with other bands which most nations recognize as the terrorist parties assisting Iran with their efforts against other groups such as the Kurds and, at some future point, potentially the Russians and Turkey. Currently Turkey is sweeping norther Syria in what they informed President Trump was their final sweep to eradicate the last vestiges of the Islamic State. The unfortunate result of the Turkish military actions is that they appear to have an identification problem, as they are more often sweeping through Kurdish towns and cities and murdering civilians as well as fighting the Kurdish Militias, some of the same militias which assisted with ridding Syria of the Islamic State and with whom the United States was allied. Turkish President Erdogan has stated his desires to include Aleppo and Mosul into Turkey as the beginning of the reestablishing of the Ottoman Empire and he will be the first Sultan of the Second Ottoman Empire. Dreams of grandeur and it is all nothing but smoke. Meanwhile, many people have the mistaken thought that Iran and Russia are allied in their efforts to assist Assad. This is untrue, as they both desire the Syrian Mediterranean ports. They both see themselves as the main ally who controls Syria. The Russians would settle for just the ports along the western coastline and Damascus for the international airport to use for supply and troop movements. The Iranians desire these as well as the southeastern border with Iran to provide them a road link through which to send their missile carriers and other heavy weapons. For Iran, Syria is the direct link for providing Hezballah with better weaponry, particularly guidance systems for their larger rocket making them into guided missiles, and with placing their IRGC troops with their required weaponry perching them on the northeastern border of Israel as well as the northern border of Israel with Lebanon. Iran also desires to have a longer border with Saudi Arabia which is behind their Iraqi and Yemenis efforts giving them the ability to threaten the Saudi Arabian oil fields which lie largely in northeastern Saudi Arabia as well as a front along the Red Sea in order to threaten Mecca and Medina, another prize the Iranians covet. This places another country at risk of the Iranian hegemonic plans, and that is Jordan. Were they to take control over Jordan, this would give them a border with Israel stretching the entirety of the eastern Israeli border, the entirety of the northern border of Saudi Arabia allowing them to strike from the north and south along the Red Sea in order to take Mecca and Medina, the two holy cities of Islam.

 

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

 

The Iranian reason for wanting to control Mecca and Medina is that this would remove the Saudi Royal Family claim to be the protectors of the Two Holy Mosques, one in Mecca and the other in Medina and the claim which also keeps the family Saud in power. The oil fields are in the largely Shiite region of Saudi Arabia, thus prime pickings for Iran using IRGC infiltrators to start the revolution, allowing Iranian forces to succeed in taking these regions upon which the royal family would be getting on their aircraft and heading for safer climes. Again, this would make Jordan a crucial prize which would make the Iranian efforts more likely to succeed. Another prize which Jordan provides is their border with Israel and its proximity to the Palestinian Authority. Iran has attempted to gain influence over the Palestinian Authority with no success for quite some time. Other means which the Iranians have for taking control of the Palestinian Authority would be Hamas, which they are currently supporting with arms and technology, largely rocket motors and weapons technology allowing Hamas along with Islamic Jihad to become a more dangerous threat to Israel. The play which Iran has been nurturing has been claims that they wish to be the best friend the Arab Palestinians could ever have. Part of this effort has also been to urge the Arab Palestinians within, who make up at least seventy percent of the population, to rise up and remove King Abdullah II allowing Iran to assist for which they would become another Iranian puppet. Were the Iranians able to cause a revolt in Jordan, expect for IRGC infiltrators to assist arming them and giving them intelligence and other assistance providing Iran with the inroad they would require to control Jordan. From that vantage, Iran would use IRGC and Hamas terrorists to infiltrate the Palestinian Authority regions and potentially back one of the people who believe they should be the next leader after Mahmoud Abbas has moved along. This could potentially place Iranian sponsored terrorists with opportunities to launch rockets into Tel Aviv and cause Israel some inconveniences. Iran has stated their desire to be the next Caliphate and to become such a hegemonic power across the Middle East and then either Europe or Northern Africa Making Shia Islam appear to be the strong horse and Sunni Islam to be fading. Through such events as they have designed to make their claim believable, which includes destroying Saudi Arabia and possibly taking control of the Muslim Brotherhood, changing it from Sunni to Shia, and using them to take control of Egypt as well, they honestly expect for Shia Islam to overtake Sunni Islam and have the majority of current Sunni Muslims convert along the way. With Shia Islam having between ten and thirteen percent of the number of Muslims and Sunni making up between eighty-five and ninety percent of Muslims, Iran has a very ambitious concept of their future.

 

For the immediate and foreseeable future, Iran still is attempting to consolidate their control in Iraq, have established a formidable military presence in Lebanon, are definitely a force in Yemen and Syria, two nations largely destroyed from civil strife and fighting, and beyond that they are currently stymied. Iran knows that should they attack Israel they would be playing with fire. Israel has proven their ability to strike at Iran whenever it pleases Israel, and Iran is apparently powerless to prevent such operations. The two main examples were the Stuxnet virus, a supposed joint venture with the United States aiding Israel, and the removal of half a ton of records of the clandestine nuclear programs conducted and still ongoing by Iran which assisted President Trump pulling out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. Iranians also are aware that Israel has sufficient missiles and other weapons with which to lay waste to most of Iran should Israel so choose. This would probably never occur, as Israel has no argument with the majority of Iranian citizens, it is just the government which is a problem. Further, the Iranian plans for Saudi Arabia would run afoul of the United States, which for as long as President Trump is President, there would be no telling as to what his reaction would be to an Iranian assault on Saudi Arabia. The same situation exists with Jordan which would also potentially have Israel involved. This leaves only one problem concerning Iran, and it is an enormous one.

 

The biggest problem with Iran is their nuclear weapons. We do not say their nuclear weapons program, we firmly believe they already have nuclear weapons. Iran presumably was working on nuclear weapons for over twenty years and the world deliriously believes that they were muddling through in the dark and never figured out how to make nuclear weapons. They may not have weapons as sophisticated as Russia or the United States, but regular nuclear weapons they very likely have, and have a fair number. They have been working on the missiles necessary to carry them and have a number which easily reach Israel and beyond. Iran has very likely had sufficient nuclear missile warheads to satisfy their slowing their pace until they developed the technology for manufacturing ballistic missile ready thermonuclear warheads of the miniaturized versions developed by Russia, China and the United States (many suspect Israel). The less powerful weapons Iran probably, if not definitely, possesses would be sufficient to destroy any target which they could detonate one bomb close enough to the intended target. A city such as Tel Aviv would probably require three or four such weapons of the variety and strength of what was dropped on Japan during World War II. When considering the Iranian tactics of swarming their enemies with smaller and fast attack craft, one might expect they have a similar set of tactics for the use of their nuclear weapons. They probably figure that over three-quarters of their launched missiles would operate sufficiently as to reach the target area. Then about half would be intercepted. Another ten percent would fail to detonate and some additional warheads would have guidance problems and miss the target to be sufficient distance so as to be ineffective. Using such figures and a pessimistic calculator, this would require the launch of around twenty missiles to be assured of the destruction of a Tel Aviv size city. At the very least, Iran very likely has sufficient nuclear missiles to destroy three or four central districts to any major population center which their missiles can reach. That alone is a frightening thought, but we in Israel disregard such threats.

 

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

 

There is a reason that Israelis do not dwell or much concern themselves with threats such as Iran. We have threats which are even more real and they occur almost daily with some terror attack from the Arabs in the Shomron from the Palestinian Arab population and less so but even from Israeli Arabs. Why would we worry about things which are very unlikely to happen immediately when we hardly worry about the terror threats all around us. Further, the government and IDF address the Iranian attempts to build a credible threat in force within Syria, especially nearest to the Israeli border. Hezballah has somewhere near or over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets poised to fire into Israel, so why worry about Iran which is so much further away. With Iran, counting the terrorist forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan which are assisting them in Syria as claims of allies with the countries is laughable. That is how desperate Iran is to impress the world to take them seriously. Small hint to world, take them and Islam seriously as though Iran may not reach the point where they could conquer the world, Islam could reach a point where it will be near impossible to save Europe in another quarter century and the United States soon after that. The United States could become an adversary or at least no longer providing any military aid and ending the sale of military equipment to Israel far sooner than Israel is currently prepared. Israel needs to start to develop whatever new weapons systems they require for the future, specifically aircraft and naval vessels as it is very probable that by 2050 Israel will need to be completely self-reliant militarily even down to the missiles fired by aircraft and ships to artillery munitions and grenades and bullets. Israel should also begin to manufacture her own anti-tank weapons and end her reliance on European nations, the United States, Canada and even Australia. Israel may soon find that she is very alone, and that would be great as long as we are also left alone to progress and live in peace. There is an old adage that if the Arabs all put down their weapons, bombs, warheads and ended the terror threats to Israel, there would be peace but if Israel were to act similarly and put down her weapons and defenses, there would be no Israel. We know what the threats and challenges are and Israel will do all she can to mitigate the threats and live in peace developing wonderful new things for the world to share as what good are the greatest gifts if they are never given away?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.