Beyond the Cusp

September 13, 2017

Is Hamas Being Merged with Hezballah?

 

According to the Head of the Shin Bet Security Service Nadav Argaman, the Gaza based terrorist group Hamas has been deepening its ties with Hezballah in Lebanon and thus becoming closer to Iran and the Shiite efforts to destroy Israel, the United States and the Western World. This is in line with recent developments in Iraq where Iran has been taking the officers and ranking core Islamic State fighters and converting most into Shia Islam while also building Sunni units to use as enforcers against what they view as renegade Shiite groups such as those who follow Muqtada al-Sadr as we reported in our recent post, “Sacrificing Kurds Along with Iraq to Iran.” We will ignore any possibility that Iran might use Hamas to free up more Hezballah forces to be used in Syria, as Syria will be placed once again under the oppressive fist of Bashir al-Assad no matter how long that takes. This is another reason to permit the Kurds to establish their own homelands of Kurdistan across both Iraq and formerly Syria lands in the northern regions. This would provide the world with a place more dependable than Turkey from which to slow the Iranian dreams of spreading into Turkey and on to Greece as the Persians had done over two thousand years ago. The Iranian Ayatollahs have repeatedly spoken of their destiny of reestablishing the Persian Empire and how, as their descendants, their destiny is world conquest. There is that pesky little concept that the Western World gave up on when they renounced colonialism and that will continue to come back to bite them.

 

Whatever the reason for Hamas spreading into Lebanon, it will also not prove favorable for Israel. Iran took a large percentage of the monies, the over one billion dollars and almost immediately resumed their support of Hamas while increasing their aid and support for Hezballah, Bashir al-Assad, the Houthis and started rebuilding their military including the IRGC. Iran has also began consolidating their position in Iraq and with support from the United States and the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias, the Iraqi military has defeated the Islamic State in Mosul and are now using IRGC along with the Iraqi forces to clear the remaining Islamic State holdouts. In less than two weeks, the Kurds will be taking a vote on whether or not to declare their independence from Iraq. Their vote intends to include the Kurdish population in Mosul and to include Mosul within their establishing of Kurdistan. The Iranians are claiming Mosul for Iraq, or at least Iraq is claiming all of what would become Kurdistan as Iraq and will, of course, be under the direct management by the Iranian Ayatollahs. The Kurdish hopes for their homeland, which was promised by the British during World War I, only to have the rug pulled out from under them when oil was discovered in the Mosul area. Now the Kurdish dream may depend on the United Nations and the world giving them the recognition they deserve. The United States State Department official position opposes the Kurdish liberation policy and have called on President Trump to refuse to back their vote should they, as expected, vote for independence. It may end up that the Kurds will need to fight to gain their independence, which will pit them against Iraq, Iran, the IRGC as well as Turkey. Their only hope will be the active support of the United States, something unfortunately unlikely as things now appear.

 

Meanwhile, the future for Lebanon as an actual nation is all but finished as with Hamas now being trained and stationed within their country and already being all but governed by Hezballah, their next elections, if they even have any, will almost certainly remove any semblance of Christian influence and the terrorists will have gained complete control. It would not be out of the question to see the Constitution of Lebanon rewritten so as to remove any requirement that Christians be represented, protected or anything other than Dhimmi as Lebanon will have been completely Islmisized. Additionally, Iran placing Hamas into Lebanon bodes poorly for the future wars against Israel being single front wars. Israel had been fortunate that they have never been forced to face Hezballah in Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza simultaneously. Iran moving some Hamas forces into Lebanon implies that Iran plans on forcing Israel to face a two front war when they next are attacked by terrorist forces with Hamas attacking from Lebanon as well as Gaza plus Hezballah attacking alongside Hamas in Lebanon and from the Golan Heights plus a potential of IRGC forces assisting the terror armies. There is little need to make this a long article but suffer us one last paragraph speculating on possible futures and one hope.

 

Coordinated Iranian Attack on Israel Including Potential Attacks from Jordan

Coordinated Iranian Attack on Israel Including Potential Attacks from Jordan

 

The hope is that President Trump will respond to the pressures from the State Department with stiff waving off of their advice and recognizes the independence of Kurdistan should that be the result of the vote, and all indications are that independence will win by close to three to one in favor. Should President Trump go one further and invoke the support of NATO, even or especially if that requires pressing President Erdoğan to support a Kurdish State or resign Turkey from NATO, something that would actually be good for NATO. Finally, Israel should be particularly watchful for Iranian efforts to take over the Palestinian Authority (PA) or for Hamas to force elections thereby taking over the PA democratically giving Iran three fronts against Israel. Currently, the only thing keeping Fatah in charge of Judea and Samaria is the IDF and Israeli intelligence thwarting the consistent attempts by Hamas to subvert Fatah rule and take over the area themselves. Now with Hamas flush with Iranian aid of weapons and money, their efforts will no doubt be redoubled for taking over the PA. Iran may even have plans to cause an uprising in Jordan and during such conflict, come in and take over Jordan making Israel truly surrounded. This would be the death knell for peace in the remainder of the Middle East. One can expect that Iran will also do all they can to complete their conquest of Yemen and thus complete their encirclement of Saudi Arabia and potentially have the ability to cut off oil and trade between Asia and Europe at the times of their choosing. Once they have Yemen, the world can expect increased piracy in the seas near the mouth of the Red Sea and into the Indian Ocean. Iran is about to surpass North Korea as the world’s primary problem with much of their actions performed by terror entities and through proxies. The end of the Syrian debacle will signal the beginning of the next stage for the Iranian attempts for hegemony of the entire Middle East and their reestablishment of the Persian Empire.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 12, 2017

State Department Declaring Open Season on Middle East and Israel

 

We once predicted Rex Tillerson would be a problem for Israel in particular and much of the Middle East as a whole. Secretary of State Tillerson belongs with the State Department with only one shortcoming; he is an Arabist and not a supporter of the new Persians in Iran. Making his position to be at odds with his own department will come when the struggle finally turns to Iran against Saudi Arabia. Rex Tillerson, before becoming Secretary of State for President Trump, was the CEO for ExxonMobil and as such had many enjoyable and enriching relations with the Saudi Royal Family. In that position, Rex Tillerson was granted honors and received with feasts and joyous celebrations. He saw the most shining and generous side of Saudi Arabian culture as he was an honored guest who brought great prosperity with his visits which enriched the Royal Family. He would have stayed in five star hotels in the finest suites available and eaten at royal feasts so it is no wonder that he has great affection, respect and possibly love for the Saudi Arabian rulers, and thus favors their nation which he has only seen their best side. One cannot blame the man for the views he gained in a lifetime of working in the oil industry.

 

Secretary of State and Former CEO for ExxonMobil Rex Tillerson

Secretary of State and Former CEO for ExxonMobil Rex Tillerson

 

Another problem with Rex Tillerson and the State Department is their view that the Kurds should postpone their September 25th vote and any consideration of declaring their independence until it will be more suitable to the understandings and outlook of the United States State Department. Imagine a people, a proud people with a history and who had their own nation until empires came and erased their nations and enslaved them and who, despite the best efforts of Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons, survived and have been the ones who initially stopped ISIS leading to the current offensive and the best hope for their defeat, having to wait until the United States State Department decides they are ready for their own country. Had President Truman listened to the State Department, the United States would not have recognized Israel but President Harry Truman listened to his mother growing up and read his Bible and was a good man who decided he would listen to his mother and his learnings as a youth over some government department. Now we need to hope that President Trump, another president whose last name begins with a “T” like Harry S. Truman, also can find his way to disregard the State Department and give the Kurds recognition simply because they deserve the recognition and any assistance they require as they have carried the fight against Islamic State for the world. But Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his State Department have not changed since 1948 where they simply do not believe that people can have their own nation without their permission. With any good fortune, the Kurds will hold their vote, take the world by the horns and declare their independence and the world has the great goodness to recognize their aspirations and recognize that without the Kurds, ISIS might still be rampaging across the Middle East instead of being pushed out of Mosul with the Kurds playing a major role.

 

The Middle East is going through a period of great turmoil shaking off the old lines imposed upon them by the Europeans at the close of World War I. After World War I, the victors (Britain, France, Russia, Italy and Japan) decided where the new boundaries and borders with much of the decisions made by two men, British diplomat Mark Sykes and a French diplomat François Georges-Picot, called the Sykes–Picot Agreement. The lines were drawn with no regard to tribal allegiances, without regard to Sunni and Shiite observance and simply decided on how the major powers decided they would carve up the remains of the former Ottoman Empire. These lines were set up in such a way as served the major powers in Europe and the Russians agreed as they were given some parts of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire and protected them from any resurgence from Turkey. Russia also was in the weakest position as they had left the war early after the revolution unseated the Tsar and the Communists had finally established governance which was to last until almost the end of the Twentieth Century. The Middle East was colonized mostly by the British, French and Italians who gave up their colonies mostly by the end of World War II through until around 1970 (see map below). Still, the nations that were formed were ungovernable resulting in mostly dictatorships, which suppressed most of the population. This led to such leaders as Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Hafez al-Assad, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Abdullah I bin al-Hussein and the Saudi Royals and their successors. Now the Middle East is making its first steps to figuring out where the lines need be drawn and what belongs to whom and everything else. Like any continental shifts in a world, the Middle East will take some time to shake out and there will be those who believe they are entitled to an empire on the backs of others while still other leaders will refuse to surrender rights to their people. This will be where the State Department will take their position that nobody deserves anything without their consent.

 

Dates that the MENA nations received their independence after colonial rule many since the times of the Persians or even earlier

Dates that the MENA nations received their independence after colonial rule many since the times of the Persians or even earlier

 

Now the State Department is demanding that President Trump demand that Israel return seventy-five-million dollars voted for Israel to build additional equipment for their defense against rockets and missiles which Israel requires to upkeep their defenses. The State Department demands these finances be returned as they exceeded the limitation that President Obama placed upon Israeli aid. The State Department claims that Israel lobbied Congress for the additional funds. Many in Congress claim that they voted for the funding without any requests or coaxing from the Israelis. Senator Lindsay Graham, Republican of South Carolina, stated, “Congress is not a party to this agreement nor is this agreement binding on future congresses. Congress has an independent duty to make a decision about the proper level of support for Israel or our other allies. To suggest this will bind future presidents and Congresses for the next decade is constitutionally flawed and impractical.” Many have commented that this is an internal war within the United States government where the Department of State is doing everything they are capable to drive a wedge between the Trump Administration and the Israelis. There are those in Congress who have their hackles up over this claiming that they had no part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that they feel President Obama forced and threatened on the Israelis. They also declare that it is the duty and responsibility of the Congress and that no President, especially any past President, can limit or restrict their decisions on spending beyond their veto power. Once a President has left office, he can no longer veto Congressional legislation once passed, only the sitting President has such power and the Congress has promised to flex their power and pass legislation to resend these funds should the State department win this round. This is a war that will decide exactly how much influence Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his Department of State are going to have over the Administration of President Trump. In all honesty, we hope that their influence will be as minimal as possible as it has been our opinion that the Department of State has been on the wrong side of history and the fight from the very start from before World War II onward. We will be watching this test for President Trump as if he gets this one wrong, then we will know that there is troubles coming.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 30, 2017

As North Korean Missiles Fly Tillerson Lies

 

We made a poor calculation, or so it seems. We had predicted, “somewhere between Thanksgiving and Christmas Kim Jong-un will announce he has had it with the American double-dealing and perversity and lies and return to firing missiles.” Apparently, Kim Jong-un did not even wait for Labor Day as on Saturday North Korea launched a set of short-range ballistic missiles and on Tuesday fired another missile, this time over the Islands of Japan. The series of missile firing came just days after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson welcomed North Korea’s recent “restraint” suggested talks with Pyongyang may be possible “in the near future,” (Watch video below). Tillerson stated in response to the North Korean provocations that the missiles were a “provocative act” adding that the United States would continue to search for a peaceful solution. This is where we question whether or not Secretary of State Tillerson may be going off the rails concerning Kim Jong-un and North Korea as compared to his stances on Israel, Kurdistan and the Arab World’s general offensive along with Iran and Turkey against the world, specifically the Western World.

 

 

Secretary Tillerson, it has been noted in conjecture, has been the driving force driving the Administration’s suspicions and commentary against the Kurdish intentions to vote for a referendum to declare their independence from Iraq and form their formerly promised state of Kurdistan before the British reneged on their promise. The Secretary of State has also been a consistent thorn in the side of relations with Israel. The problems with Israel do not rise to the level that the relations with the Kurds have reached, but Israel has her independence already. Still, having Secretary of State Tillerson constantly promoting policies which reflect the Arabist views of the world in general and the views of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, or potentially Mecca and more appropriately, Medina, is wearing thin as it flies in the face of policies which would be to the advantage of the United States specifically and the free world generally.

 

We understand that the apparent assignment for the State Department is to play Devil’s advocate and oppose what would be right and best for the United States. This was evidenced when they sent a communist group to assist in writing the United Nations Charter and gave the Soviets advantages at every corner. It was further established with their strong advice to President Truman not to recognize Israeli independence, good thing he ignored their advice. Now they are advising the United States deny nationhood to the strongest and closest ally existing in the war on the Islamic State, the only group to have large success in driving the Islamic State from northern Syria, the peoples whom the United States has been arming and Israel has given tactical assistance yet the State Department claims they are unworthy of statehood as that would detract from Iraqi sovereignty and weaken Iran. We seem to remember some commentary about knocking Iran down a peg or two and rewriting parts of the deal with Iran over nuclear research into nuclear weaponry and the processing of uranium by President Trump. Apparently, Secretary Tillerson is concerned about what effect a Kurdish State might have on Iraq and Iran and very likely the Islamic State and Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad.

 

These steps come in addition to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson making some antagonizing noise over Israeli “settlements” referring to legally built communities and cities according to the Oslo Accords stipulations while ignoring illegal building by the European Union along with the Arabs in Area C against every stipulation concerning this region by the Oslo Accords. It has become apparent that Secretary of State Tillerson and his State Department have decided once again to adopt the Arab revisionism of the Oslo Accords in which Israel has no right to Jerusalem, Akko, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Tiberius, Eilat, Beersheba and Tel Aviv. This had been the interpretation of the final settlement according to Yasser Arafat and has been adopted by Mahmoud Abbas and the PA and apparently also adopted by Secretary Tillerson in spirit if not in its entirety. Such sophomoric, treacherous and toxic advice can only embolden Abbas and the Arabs to avoid direct negotiations and in its stead demand concessions from Israel which Secretary Tillerson and the State Department will very likely pressure Israel to concede, as they always have, regardless of the position of President Trump or his Middle East envoy Jared Kushner and President Trump’s International Negotiator Jason Greenblatt which appears to be more open ended. While President Trump’s team has stated clearly an Administration position of no preconditions, preconceptions, or premonitions of the design of a solution, the State Department with a few worthy exceptions appears to be backing the continued failings of the “two-state-solution” directly in opposition to all other, including their own, efforts.

 

Secretary Tillerson also came out expressly against Kurdish independence. One would be following logic and good sense if they were to conclude from previous indications such as the United States arming of the Kurds in Syria and in warning off Turkey’s Erdoğan, who had started a general campaign militarily against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, thus protecting Kurdish interests, that the Administration would back the concept of a new country named Kurdistan where the Kurds could fulfil their destiny free of tyrannical and counter productive interference from Baghdad. We would and have gone further in suggesting a greater Kurdistan which would span across northeastern Syria, northern Iraq and northwestern Iran and for allowing Kurds from outside the area, from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran in particular, to return to their newly reestablished homelands free from outside influences or policies. The Kurds were another indigenous group which had been promised a return to their homelands and a freely established state after World War I and the divisions of the great empires of Austro-Hungary, German (which had included Poland within its borders) and Ottoman. One might be led to believe that Turkey would desire such a nation as a place they could force their Kurdish minority to emigrate and end their fears of Kurdish revolt but Erdoğan envisions a greater Turkey which would envelop the Kurdish regions and then the Kurds would be facing a similar fate than that of the Armenians under Ottoman rule. One can only wonder where Secretary Tillerson stands on the ideas of a greater Turkey or a hegemonic Iran which would include much of Iraq plus all of Syria and Lebanon (see concept map below). Greater Turkey would include areas of Syria and Iraq which the Kurds desire for their homelands and extend slightly beyond before they would run into Iranian Shiite opposition but would include Sunni areas of Iraq. Hegemonic Iran would incorporate much of Iraq and Syria plus all, if not beyond, Lebanon, Oman, Yemen, Djibouti and Qatar thus surrounding Saudi Arabia and Jordan who would be thrust together potentially being forced into having relations with Israel. The greater question would be how far along the coast of the Horn of Africa Iran might spread and whether or not Jordan would invite Saudi Arabian protection as part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (included in map).

 

Greater Turkey and Hegemonic Iran In Faceoff to Control Middle East

Greater Turkey and Hegemonic Iran
In Faceoff to Control Middle East

 

Our guess of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reacting to such a map as depicted would be outrage that Israel would take control of the lands actually promised her by the San Remo Conference, the Treaty of Sèvres, the Treaty of Lausanne, the Mandate System, the Conventions of the League of Nations and Article 80 of the United Nations Charter making these treaties and the entirety of their implications, promises, stipulations and implications all enforced by the United Nations. He would likely view at such a point as this that Israel rightfully belonged to Saudi Arabia as the British Mandate of Jordan had been included under Saudi protective rule, why not the remaining 22% of the British Mandate. He would question, with the support of the deep state of the State Department, the protestations expressed by the Israelis and would ignore the religious implications and what would verily happen should Israeli citizens ever come under Muslim or Arab rule. Secretary Tillerson would likely read some missive from the Saudi Royals which would be presented as their guarantee of protection for the Jews of Israel as they are People of the Book (أهل الكتاب) and as such a protected class of Dhimmis. He would infer that Dhimmis meant honored guests and a protected group as stated and would ignore the horrid rumors about the Jews being Kāfir (كافر) and thus could be subjected to the choice of convert to Islam or die without ever compromising their Dhimmitude.

 

Allow us to end with a beseechment to the leading advisors and their coordination impairment and the confusion, embarrassment and detriment they have caused. Please, President Trump and especially Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, Four Star Marine General (ret), clean up the imbroglio which is the President’s Cabinet. First and foremost, determine who amongst them are capable of supporting a single set of ideas and ideals and are willing to cooperate, then be rid of the rest. Next, sit them all down and play for them the main points President Trump promised to accomplish while campaigning. Then ask who would not be capable of not only supporting but actively engaging all their energies to accomplish whatever tasks they may receive to get these things accomplished. Those who appear even the slightest to delay and especially those who cough, hem and haw, be done with them and receive not their counsel. Lastly, ask each Secretary to submit plans to, first, restructure their department, second, cut their department staffing by a minimum of fifty percent, and lastly, to dissolve their department entirely and advising where critical actions could be best served. Then meet with the President and go through these plans and decide which departments need to implement which plan. Just as a starter, may we suggest you get rid of Educations Department, Homeland Security Department; half or more of the law enforcement bureaus starting with BTFE, and have the State Department reduce its staff by fifty percent, at least twice. Advice for President Trump, ignore much of the noise which erupts regularly from the State Department, as often doing the opposite of what they advise is the best move.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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