Beyond the Cusp

June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
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The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 18, 2018

Gaza

 

Gaza, the word itself gives thought to meaning, and that meaning is different for every individual. It should not convey such latitude of thoughts, but that is largely due to the media and its mendacious reporting. With the world of reporting as it is, one often will have feelings on issues divorced from reality and stuck forever on a single picture and the caption or the repeated description of the amount of violence from both sides. The range of the “facts” when it comes to Gaza, and to everything touching Israel, is frightening and a threat to even the most basic truths. Once, back in college Intro to Philosophy class, we discussed and even argued fiercely over whether or not such concept of truth and reality had any meaning and how, if at all, were they related. In the end, we agreed to disagree and this was the exact point the professor was attempting to make. His conclusion was that reality and truth had about the same relationship to one-another, as we were able to reach an agreement. Put simply, truth and reality are relative to the viewer and as for is there an absolute reality, according to the professor, such only exists in the imaginary realm described by Plato. My thoughts on that were they probably sat next to the perfect three-legged chair with the perfect two-legged dinner table making them the perfect set for a meal with discussion.

 

While we are on the subject of college, it was in a physics course where we were introduced to the thought experiment, so let us try a thought experiment. First is we are going to represent the United States by using New Jersey, it is roughly the size and shape of Israel. We are going to move New Jersey into the Middle East replacing Israel. Gaza will be placed in the southwestern corner of New Jersey just as it is in Israel and New Jersey will be bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Lebanon to the north, Syria to the northeast, Jordan to the east, Saudi Arabia to the southeast and Egypt to the south. These borders differ slightly from Israel but are fairly representative of reality. For those who disapprove of President Trump, you can choose to have John Fitzgerald Kennedy as the President acting as he did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now to put all of what has happened into a familiar setting, this is what would have been occurring. First thing is there have been violent riots continuously for the past two and a half months and are showing no signs of letting off. Over one-hundred rockets have been fired into New Jersey (Israel) striking as deep as Willianstown/Rahat and as far north as Camden/Ashkelon. Further, there have been hundreds upon hundreds of acres of crops and forests burned down by having incendiary kites and balloons flown over your border and this has started to show signs of increasing and using larger helium balloons to penetrate deeper into New Jersey (Israel). Your intelligence bureau has found maps showing the quickest and most direct routes to the neighborhoods bordering the points where these rioters have attempted to breach the border which have been provided to the rioters. The leader of Hamas and ruling power in Gaza has stated publically and loudly that the rioting would continue until the border is erased, all of New Jersey (Israel) has been liberated, and its people killed. He has urged that the rioter upon breaching the border tear out their hearts and eat their livers of those they come across and murder. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been provided with technology and the required molds for making larger rockets and even rudimentary guidance systems which allow for far larger rockets which can be targeted at specific areas striking within a couple of hundred yards. The largest of these are the M75 which is called the Jerusalem Rocket and the R160 (see chart for increased ranges over the years). That is where things stand currently with the kites and balloons still being launched, the rioting and burning of thousands of tires daily sending plumes of acrid smoke into Israel and across Gaza, the introduction of drones carrying incendiary devices and always the threat of more rockets and even having Iran order Hezballah to join the assault upon Israel.

 

New Jersey Representing Israel in Middle East New Jersey City’s name on the top Israeli City’s name on the bottom

New Jersey Representing Israel in Middle East
New Jersey City’s name on the top
Israeli City’s name on the bottom

 

We promised a map showing the increased range that the projectiles launched from Gaza have attained but allow us to add another item to the scenario, rocket payloads and ranges. The list goes as follows; Qassam-1 has a one and a quarter pound warhead with range of four and a half miles, Qassam-2 has a eleven pound warhead with a range of just over six miles, Qassam-3 has a thirty-three pound warhead with a range of seven and a half miles, Grad has a forty pound warhead with a range of twelve and a half miles, WS-1E has a forty-eight and a half pound warhead with a range of twenty-eight miles, R-60 has a two-hundred pound warhead with a range of over forty-five miles, and the M-75 has a three-hundred-thirty pound warhead with a range of over ninety miles. Looking at the map below and it is not beyond reality to believe that Hamas, supplied by Iran, now has even larger warheads on rockets which can strike anywhere in Israel and, if they overshoot, possibly striking Lebanon and Hezballah (one can only hope).

 

Hamas Rockets and Missiles Depicting Increasing Ranges by Conflict with Yellow – Dec. 2008-Jan 2009 Tan - November 2012 Orange - July-August 2014

Hamas Rockets and Missiles Depicting
Increasing Ranges by Conflict with
Yellow – Dec. 2008-Jan 2009
Tan – November 2012
Orange – July-August 2014

 

So, we have set the stage. What do you believe an American President would do in case of such threats and provocations? Do you think his Security Cabinet would be discussing ways to alleviate the collapsing economic problems within Gaza by doing, as many in the IDF general staff have suggested, providing Gaza with building materials including plumbing supplies of all sizes, cement in the thousands of pounds, masonry in equal amounts, provide them with additional water from Israel as well as additional natural gas and electricity with Israel providing 100% of the necessary power to Gaza? The Israeli leaders actually believe that the problem is the economic conditions in Gaza causing the rioting and all the hatred and not that the hatred and throwing all of their funds into weapons and tunnels designed to destroy Israel ruining the Gaza economy. They were discussing doing what the United Nations and European Union claim is necessary to end the problems in Gaza. Really? Does any rational person anywhere on the planet not think that should Israel do exactly what is described above that the supplies would not be utilized with the plumbing used to make more rockets and mortar tubes and the cement and masonry to build tunnels and not schools, housing and hospitals. This is exactly what they used the plumbing from the greenhouses Israelis left so they could have at least one industry to help start an economic viability became Qassam-1 rockets, and whenever the United Nations, European Union or other nation or organization provided building materials, it almost all went into their tunnels throughout Gaza and into Egypt and Israel, the former for smuggling and the latter for infiltration and terror attacks. Watching the United States over the years and the only conclusion we can reach is if they were in the place of Israel, the world would not have a Gaza problem to discuss. Gaza would have been wiped clean off the map and replaced with casinos along the coast and track housing in the interior with greenhouses and crops of fruit being grown in every open area, which there would be quite a fair deal of after the American military was done. The morning after those one-hundred-plus rockets were fired across an area covering almost one quarter of New Jersey (Israel), the President would have already given the orders and every living thing in Gaza would be cleared from the land and if they resisted, shot on the spot. Everyone who was participating in the rioting would be targeted using facial recognition software such that every soldier would be notified by having the face of the rioter shaded in red in his visor telling them that this person was a legitimate target. Smart drones would be hunting out the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad with anti-personnel missiles ready for launching upon discovery. As for them hiding in their bunker under the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, that just might be the initial strike target. As for the rest of their tunneling systems, we are sure the United States has by now after Viet Nam developed an automated system for destroying tunnels and for shooting anyone found in the tunnel and not identified as an American soldier. What would be even more amazing is that there would be no meetings of the United Nations Security Council, the UN Human Right Committee or the General Assembly or any of the plethora of United Nations Agencies filled with busybodies usually just hunting for their next target. The deed would be done and the problem resolved quickly but not so quietly.

 

Israel, on the other hand, is expected to not only suffer these attacks, but the world demands that we feed and give relief to these very same people who are doing everything in their power to murder every last Israeli. As Israelis, we are not overly pleased with their intentions. There is a growing consensus amongst Israelis that the time has come to stop playing so nicely with these murderous terrorists and dealing with them just as any normal nation would deal with terrorists within their midst, destroying their ability to pose even the slightest threat and then making dead sure that they never gain have any hope of attacking Israelis with more than a sideways glance, and even that would cost them. This is a war between civilization and barbarians who are at our gates. The last time the barbarians at the gates were treated with kindness brought down the existing Chinese royalty when those barbarians swept across China. That should be one of the advantages of the location of Israel, we can look just as easily at Asia and Africa as we can Europe as the three meet at our doorstep. That has been an advantage as well as a curse as every empire seems to go through Jerusalem. The reality of what Gaza poses is written across the map showing the progressive increase in range and payload which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have at their disposal. This is traceable straight to Iran, and it is Iran who has a burning desire to eliminate the Jewish State, the Zionist Entity as they refer to Israel. This threat does not stop at Hamas and Islamic Jihad; it also comes from other quarters.

 

Iran currently has IRGC and al-Quds forces within Syria presumably assisting Bashir al-Assad in winning the civil war which attempted to overthrow him. What is interesting is the presence of al-Quds forces which are trained and presumably solely assembled with only a single target, Israel. Additionally, Hezballah has spread into Syria also under the guise of assisting with the civil war. Hezballah is another Iranian proxy who initially was to take control of Lebanon politically and destroy Israel. They now rule Lebanon and have replaced many of the Lebanese military officers with Hezballah officers but are still working on the second goal of destroying Israel. Hezballah is currently estimated to have over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with over two thirds capable of striking anywhere within Israel and some which could reach Cairo and Medina. Many of these missiles are fitted with fairly accurate guidance modules provided by Iran and made in Iran, North Korea or China. One can only ask the simple question, what are our leaders waiting for, Hamas to have one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with similar capability to those possessed by Hezballah? What exactly will it take for them to wake-up and smell the trinitrotoluene (C6H2(NO2)3CH3)? We pray that the shot fired that the Iron Dome and other anti-missile defensive systems Israel has developed all fail to intercept taking down a forty-plus floor tower in central Tel Aviv is what it finally takes to force Israeli leaders to finally give the order to unleash the full power of the IDF to destroy Gaza and then have the infantry backed by armor retaking Gaza and sending whatever remains of the population into exile not caring where they end up. We have our doubts that even such a tragedy would even get such a reaction.

 

Sometimes we fear that our leaders fear being criticized by the leaders in Europe more than they are of Hamas to Hezballah. If that is the case, then please allow somebody more worried about the people in South Tel Aviv who are under daily attacks by illegal immigrants who should have been deported and if no place will take them, then fly them to The Hague and allow the United Nations deal with the problem. We want leaders who are concerned about the farmers and people in the kibbutzim along the Gaza border whose town centers are on maps showing the rioters the quickest route to reach them to find victims once they cross the border after destroying the fence (picture of the map). We had a mortar land in a kindergarten less than an hour before it would have been filled with young children in the yard (picture of mortar round remains and of damaged tree and area where children were due to arrive shortly). People have had their homes partially destroyed, their vehicles struck and there have been scores of dead and injured over the years from terrorist attacks and offensives which started actually calmer than this round.

 

The big fear is that all of this from Gaza is the lead up to a planned all-out attack from three sides with Hamas from not only Gaza but with Iranian backed terrorists assisting Hamas from the Sinai Peninsula along the Egypt-Israel border, Hezballah along the northern Lebanon-Israel border and a combination of al-Quds, IRGC and Hezballah attacking the Golan Heights. There are ongoing efforts by Iran to gain control over Fatah and the Palestinian Authority and once Mahmoud Abbas leaves office by some means, there is the possibility that Iran will back any number of those who contend for the crown. Iran desires surrounding Israel with proxies to do their fighting for them. They have been doing this in Iraq (Badr Brigades), Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezballah), Syria (Hezballah and Badr Brigades), Gaza (Islamic Jihad and taking control of Hamas) and Qatar which has adopted the Iranian side against the best efforts by Saudi Arabia. Iran wants to take at least the Shia majority northeastern area of Saudi Arabia with the majority of the oil fields and the western coastal region along the Red Sea in order to control the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal as well as taking control of the Two Holy Cities, Mecca and Medina. Iran believes that without Mecca and Medina, the Saudi Royal Family would be overthrown and in the aftermath and confusion, they could simply take over the remainder of Saudi Arabia, thus become the largest oil producer, and control the price of oil making them masters of the Middle East and power beyond.

 

Iran has established an adherent base through Shia Islam who follows blindly the Khomeini innovated ideology which declared Islamic jurists to be the only true source of religious and political authority. Their pronouncements must be obeyed “as an expression of obedience to God,” and their rule takes “precedence over all secondary ordinances [of Islam] such as prayer, fasting, and pilgrimage.” That gives the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) in Tehran almost complete control over these religious followers the world over. The goal is even greater with the “export our Revolution to the whole world” one of “the great goals of the revolution,” for the purpose of “establishing the Islamic state world-wide.” For a deeper coverage on this and Iran generally, we might advise this article (long) which goes into intricate details. The reality is Iran sees their largest and most hated enemies to be the United States and Israel in that order. They refer to the United States as the Great Satan and Israel as the Little Satan. Iran has a number of items on their to-do list which need be completed before they even consider taking on the Great Satan directly, but that day has been planned. The one thing that Iran has in their favor is patience. They are willing to take a hundred years, thousand years, and the rest of time to complete their conquest of the world. They will be careful and proceed with what they can take and rest until things calm and start again and repeat as needed. Iran has a training and action center in the Tri-Border region (PDF file) where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina borders converge. This has become a Hezballah training center and operation hub in the Americas. As we stated, they have plans on the Americas which eventually will lead to the United States. Their initial imperative is to prove that Shia Islam is the strong horse and the true inheritor of Muhammad and turn the Sunni followers into converts to Shia Islam. This they believe they will accomplish once they control Mecca and Medina and have defeated Saudi Arabia. From there they would plan to spread across northern Africa sweeping the heart of Islam and making Shia Islam the main power of the Islamic world. In the meantime, Israel has an Iran problem on almost every border and that should be concern one which must be addressed, and not by providing Gaza with more resources with which to attempt to murder Israelis because eventually they will succeed, and that day will become another day of mourning, and we have sufficient of those already, thank you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 25, 2018

Pompeo and Iran Faceoff

 

Pompeo is the new United States Secretary of State and he made a grand and flamboyant entrance. Apparently, President Trump finally got exactly what he desired at the State Department, someone who understands he works for the President and not in competition with the President when it comes to foreign policy. Pompeo understands he is there in order to advise and explain the implications, the intricacies, the consequences, the repercussions, the potential reactions of allies and adversaries plus, when requested, his opinion tempered by his years with the CIA. Pompeo has now stepped out with the suggestions for Iran to follow if they wish to be welcomed into the family of nations, or at least avoid sanctions from the United States. So, we guess that the best idea now is to produce the dozen demands from President Trump as outlined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

 

1. Iran must declare to the IAEA a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.
2. Iran must stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing. This includes closing its heavy water reactor.
3. Iran must also provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the entire country.
4. Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or development of nuclear-capable missile systems.
5. Iran must release all US citizens, as well as citizens of our partners and allies, each of them detained on spurious charges.
6. Iran must end support to Middle East terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
7. Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi government and permit the disarming, demobilization, and reintegration of Shia militias.
8. Iran must also end its military support for the Houthi militia and work towards a peaceful political settlement in Yemen.
9. Iran must withdraw all forces under Iranian command throughout the entirety of Syria.
10. Iran, too, must end support for the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and the region, and cease harboring senior al-Qaeda leaders.
11. Iran, too, must end the IRG Qods Force’s support for terrorists and militant partners around the world.
12. Iran must end its threatening behavior against its neighbors — many of whom are US allies. This certainly includes its threats to destroy Israel, and its firing of missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also includes threats to international shipping and destructive — and destructive cyberattacks.

 

The Dry Bones cartoons described these demands as President Trump demanding “Unconditional Surrender” from Iran. Others have tried to represent them as demanding that Iran be like any peaceful democratic nations. There might be a small problem there; Iran is anything but a peaceful democratic nation, it is a Theocracy disguised as a democratic nation but run as a Mullocracy where the Supreme Leader who receives his orders from Allah, or so we are to believe, and whatever he dreams up in his overblown egotistical imagination is to be implemented. Iran responded with his message, which went like this, “The conditions of the United States are meaningless. Iran has no need for anyone’s permission to act in the Middle East. Our missile programs will be determined according to Iranian needs.” Meanwhile, from Israel we heard from the leader of the Jewish Home Party, Minister Naftali Bennett, who said, “The bottom line of Pompeo’s speech and the new policy toward Iran is that it can either invest in improving the lives of Iranians or invest in taking the lives of other people. It cannot do both.” The initial reaction here was a simple recognition that the gauntlet has been thrown, and that is where we will start.

 

Display featuring missiles and portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei (Reuters)

Display featuring missiles and portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei (Reuters)

 

The Iranian threat is being met head on by President Trump, which he announced through Mike Pompeo’s speech. Now comes the long game, how long will depend on a number of conditions which will be recognized along the path as we progress. We might be watching the pages of history being written before us in the newspapers and blogs which cover the news of our age. The gauntlet was lain out in the Pompeo speech and responded to be the Iranian spokespeople in which they basically told President Trump, bring it. The ball is back in the court of President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo. Iran is not going to comply, not now, not ever. Iran is willing to push the confrontation to whatever point it takes and will destroy their entire economy and the lives of thousands, if not millions, of Iranian citizens just to prove that they cannot be intimidated. The Iranian leaders, the Mullahs, all believe that they are destined to be the eventual rulers of the world, and as such cannot be intimidated, defeated or otherwise deterred from completing Allah’s will on Earth. So, the next step is going to be the initial sanctions as President Trump did say that the sanctions would be applied in steps getting ever more restrictive, as sanctions tend to be.

 

Where does this end? Where do things such as this ever end? When two nations, both of which believe the world is their oyster, come at loggerheads, there can be only one end, either one of the two backs down and accepts the other being of greater power or they go all in in a contest of one another’s mettle, and that means another war in the Middle East. That brings us to the big question, which nation will be the one to initiate hostilities and in what form will that attack take? That attack’s form will depend upon which nation initiates the actual hot war. The United States would likely use conventional weaponry and any initial attack will target the Iranian missile launch locations and their known nuclear research and enrichment facilities even to include the Fordow site near Qom built by tunneling deep into the mountain in an attempt to make it impervious to attack, but the entrances are above ground and not impervious, just defended by the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems. The escalations will be planned such that they do not impact the citizens of Iran, as President Trump rightfully believes that they are the ultimate weapon for ending the rule of the Mullahs. President Trump would most prefer that there be a revolution by the Iranian people to remove the Mullahs and install governance of their choosing. Then there is the problematic situation as to how the United States could assist the Iranian people without actually declaring or entering open warfare. The preferred means of accomplishing such a task usually falls to some of the most well trained warriors on the planet, the Navy Seals and the Army Delta Force.

 

Fordow Nuclear Site Near Qom Built by Tunneling Deep into the Mountain

Fordow Nuclear Site Near Qom Built by Tunneling Deep into the Mountain

 

But what if the Iranians decide to declare their war first? This would be where the United States anti-missile systems world-wide would face a real wartime test. Iran would likely use a multi-pronged attack. There would be a number of high altitude nuclear missiles aimed towards the heart of the United States which would be specially set for maximum electro-magnetic pulse. These warheads would initially be launched disguised as scientific satellites. These might even have actual equipment which would operate just as a weather satellite or other normative satellite. They could be placed in orbit years ahead of their use or simply months ahead of their use. These would be assisted with normal, high-explosive thermonuclear weapons launched at the major cities of the United States. These might even be launched from freighters which would be following normal cargo transport routes only deviating in the final hours to reach their launch points surrounding the United States. Such launchings would be difficult to intercept, as they would have flight times of less than one hour. The world would face an extreme situation, as the United States is the largest exporter of food responsible for feeding a large part of the world’s population. It is almost unnecessary to point out that the United States retaliatory strike would bring the end of Iran which would be carried out by the United States Boomers, their nuclear carrying submarines.

 

The world had best hope there exists a third means of ending this standoff, and unfortunately there does exist such a solution. The other solution could come in three years or seven, all depending on United States political elections. The change can come simply due to a new President being elected. In three years, President Trump faces a reelection campaign. Trump is quite likely to face his first test just retaining the Republican nomination, as he is sure to be contested. This is highly irregular, but there is a major part of the Republican Party which seriously desires removing the Trump blight they believe he has leveled against their party. Even should President Trump manage to continue on as the Republican nominee, the primary would leave him as an even more damaged candidate than he would otherwise have been. Then President Trump would face his Democrat contester in the General Election. Even should President Trump win reelection, he would not be permitted to run in the following election four years later. Should Iran choose, they could simply outwait President Trump and simply suffer the sanctions until somebody more favorable to Iran is elected. Even should the next President decide to continue the sanctions, eventually there will be somebody elected who would decide to lift the sanctions and seek better relations with Iran and the Mullahs. The United States might potentially elect a President who would turn out to be even more pro-Iranian than was any previous President. Such a selection could be one such as Keith Ellison, Abdul El-Sayed or Saba Ahmed or some other candidate who would wish to support relations with Iran (we cannot actually claim any of the above would support Iran).

 

Then there is a fourth possibility which could lead almost anywhere. Iran could decide that the sanctions would only make them weaker in the future and move on whatever target they desired next rather than wait for time to pass. They might initiate a conflict with Saudi Arabia, Israel or even Turkey. Iran could choose any target they have already in their plans for world conquest which the Supreme Leader, both Ali Khamenei and Ruhollah Khomeini, his predecessor. This is the destine and their belief is so deep that they believe that they rule the second Persian Empire, just as Turkey’s President Erdogan believes he is the first Caliph of the new Ottoman Empire. One can only wonder what other leaders hiding in the Middle East believe that they are some reincarnation or successor to some past empire, possibly Egypt, Babylon, Assyria, Carthaginian or choose your favorite lost empire. The only current people with delusions who are of any danger are the two mentioned above. Erdogan could have been contained had only the United States State Department have given just a small amount of encouragement to the Kurds to declare independence and have the United States provide a modicum of assistance. Iran, on the other hand, is already establishing their bases for the conquest of the Middle East after which they will need to choose either Europe or North Africa. We would make our best bet on Northern Africa, as they would desire to fully convert and bring the Islamic World behind any further conquests. Thusfar, with minimal notice from most of the world beyond the Israelis and the vanquished, Iran has established a corridor reaching from the Indian Ocean through to the Mediterranean Sea. They have also established a second front against Saudi Arabia in the south from Yemen to compliment their front from Iraq. One can only wonder what might happen when Turkey sweeping across the northern Kurdish regions in Syria comes to the attention of the Iranians as they believe that Syria is their sandbox. The world sure is an interesting place, particularly in the Middle East. Let us hope it does not get any more interesting.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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