Beyond the Cusp

March 6, 2018

Foreboding Predictions Abound


Most of these predictions ring relatively hollow as they are still kicking that dead horse of Russian collusion electing President Trump. Some hold a fair amount of credibility such as the predictions of the coming President Trump’s Trade War. But for us living here in Israel, perhaps the most chilling are those which speak of a coming war out of the north such as here and here or the even worse prediction of a multi-front war mentioned here. Fortunately, we here at BTC have some comments on this ourselves. Our feelings are that these predictions underestimate Israeli preparedness and adaptability.


The one thing which was pointed out which is very real and true is that the main threat Israel holds initially is her air power. It was pointed out that Hezballah has an exorbitant number of guided missiles, estimates in excess of one-hundred-fifty-thousand, with rather more than adequate accuracy that they pose a threat to every runway in all of Israel. Further, they posit that this could negate Israeli air power by preventing its taking off and, later on, landing. The first half is easily negated as these modern jets can take off with a relatively short start which makes many of the taxiways adequate to get them into the air. From that point forward, it becomes a race to repair the runways sufficiently to allow their landing. What has been proven repeatedly is that runways can be patched and returned to service with great expediency and alacrity. This was proven in World War II by both the British and the Nazis as bombing the runways proved inadequate to prevent aircraft from taking off even later the same day. It was proven in Viet Nam as the same speed and adroitness allowed North Viet Nam to put planes in the air the same afternoon after the runways had been struck only hours earlier. The same would apply to Israel as the technique proven to work even for fast flying jets had been to fill the crater with sand and gravel and top it with asphalt or fast drying cement and you are good to go. Further, even if the runways are not prepared and aircraft need an emergency runway immediately, there are numerous stretches of multi-lane highways very capable of use and could be cleared in a matter of minutes if not faster.


Another matter is that Israel is not solely dependent upon aircraft to deliver stinging blows of return fire using missiles of her own fired from ground stations and naval platforms. Furthermore, the Israel missile defenses are extremely adequate for protecting vital airfields, aircraft and other defense facilities. Another point was that Israeli defenses could be swarmed but that misses the point that using missiles as the very first line response allows almost immediate return fire. Further, with the efficiency of Israeli intelligence, it might even be likely that sufficient aircraft would have already been launched to strike at targets before the first missiles even struck their targets and certainly before the second or third volley had been prepared and launched. Israel showed such abilities on previous occasions. Also, as the front lines plus depth of assets are relatively tight to the borders as most of Hezballah instillations are in either the Beqaa Valley or south of the Litani River (see map below), their launching positions within Lebanon are already mapped by the IDF so striking them immediately upon any attack would be easily implemented. As Hezballah was also engaged in the war in Syria along with Iran and Russia, Israel can expect Iranian IRGC troops alongside Hezballah just east of the Golan Heights where Israel holds the commanding strategic area at the summit. Everything, even if located in northern Syria, is within minutes distance for both Israeli missiles and fighter aircraft. Unfortunately, much can be also stated about Israeli facilities, especially those between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in the heart of the nation, and we mean the beating heart. Israeli High Command likely has numerous scenarios for most attack profiles for Hezballah even with contingencies for IRGC and Iranian regular Army troops as well as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and forces from the Sinai Peninsula across the Egyptian border. The one thing Israel may be counting on which would be somewhat a surprise would be Jordan also launching an attack. Even should the Palestinian Security Force also launch, Israel definitely would have that covered. Israel, if such an attack were to occur on all these multiple fronts, would have but one response which would be logical, wipe every vestige of offensive capability off the battlefield and beyond. The entirety of the Lebanese and whatever remnants of the Syrian electrical grids should be decimated along with all other utilities to as severe a degree as possible. All airfields should be destroyed including all hangars, the flight tower and airfield emergency facilities. Fire stations and police stations should be primary targets as well. No ability to sustain an offensive should remain and all command and control of military assets must be utterly destroyed no matter their location. This would include the Hamas main command bunker located beneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Any civilian facility which would normally be completely off limits and protected by the Geneva Conventions become targetable as a military asset if it is utilized to store weaponry, house active fighting troops, launching facilities placed in close proximity such as on roofs or between buildings, or if utilized as a command center. This is recognized in the Geneva Conventions as making even schools and hospitals targetable should they be used to protect military facilities. Of course, these rules apply in a normative battlefield but when it is Israel fighting for her survival, even military targets with no civilian aspect become debatable targets and when struck may become the area under investigation for war crimes. This was adequately made visible in the Israeli Hunt for Ambushed Soldier and the much overblown firefight in the Jenin Refugee Camp which even the United Nations sided with Israel validating everything reported by Israel about the battle and refuted the entire Palestinian Arab fantasy that Israel had slaughtered hundreds if not thousands of innocent civilians. It was found that the Palestinian Arabs had used civilians as bait to draw IDF soldiers into booby-trapped buildings thus placing civilians in jeopardy even to the point of placing explosives under the civilians such as when they were moved, they would have the bomb detonate murdering them and possibly killing the Israeli soldiers.


Map of Hezballah Military Emplacements

Map of Hezballah Military Emplacements


Israeli responses to an initial strike by Hezballah out of Lebanon need to be beyond anything Lebanon has ever faced. The entirety of Lebanon and its military must be targeted as it has been taken over by Hezballah. This was proven when Hezballah moved into Syria supported by the very Abrams main battle tanks which President Obama sold to the Lebanese Army after they gave verbal assurances that there was no connection between the Lebanese military and Hezballah. The CIA, Israeli Intelligence, MI6 and numerous other military intelligence groups around the globe all knew that Hezballah had taken over the Lebanese military and President Obama was informed of this. Despite the warnings, President Obama sold top of the line military equipment knowing and intending for it to be used by Hezballah. His intent was for them to use it against Israel and not to use it in the Syrian civil war. President Obama may still get his wish though the numbers of weapons and main battle tanks has been diminished in the Syrian conflict. We can only thank Hashem for this good fortune and their losses may not be finished as the war grinds on and on. There is still the chance that Iran will become disgruntled at Turkey apparently attempting to take some of Syrian Northern Provinces with his assaults on the Kurds. While Iran and Bashir al-Assad will lose little sleep and shed no tears for the Kurds, they will be disgruntled over losing land, any land, even to a presumed ally such as Turkey’s President Erdoğan. Should hostilities break out between Syria and Turkey, Hezballah may find themselves drawn into a very problematic confrontation as Turkey is as well if not better equipped than Hezballah and equal to the Iranians and we should not count out the Russians as it will depend on how Putin feels about Erdoğan when he gets out of bed that morning the decision will be made.


Still, Israel cannot allow any of the resources known about for Hezballah or the Lebanese Military to survive the initial strikes. Within the first twelve hours, at least seventy-five percent of all military resources available to Hezballah in Lebanon need be incapacitated and destroyed. Further, Lebanese infrastructure must be neutralized completely. This also must be applicable to all military instillations within a couple hundred miles of the Israeli border within Syria should forces stationed attack Israel with even an artillery shell or single rocket or even a stray bullet crossing the border into the Golan Heights. Israel should also already be prepared to coordinate with Jordan should Iran make moves to cross the border with Jordan either to try and flank Israeli forces in the Golan Heights or to actually take over Jordan and depose the Jordanian governance. Israel must also have plans ready if Iran should start to fly aircraft and fire missiles out of Iraq or even from Iran itself. These plans will be the most difficult to actually accomplish with minimal casualties and loss of aircraft. The distance makes most of Iran beyond Israeli reach without having a refueling stop somewhere along the way. Saudi Arabia has some very conveniently placed military airfields as well as those surrounding Riyadh and including the international airport in the Riyadh area (see map below). Even with an under the covers agreement for Israel to utilize these airbases or any of the others should such need become required, flights to strike Iran would still be fraught with perilous dangers.


Potential Saudi Arabian Refueling Airfields for Israeli Air Force

Potential Saudi Arabian Refueling Airfields for Israeli Air Force


The only real way for Israel to strike Iran would be with missiles. This becomes very apparent once one takes in the measure of the difference in size of the two nations and the distance involved. Additionally, the vast majority of the land between Israel and Iran must be considered hostile as Iran controls most of Iraq to include all of the air space above Iraq. Jordan is highly unlikely to allow Israel permission for overflight of military aircraft. Israel would be required out of necessity to fly the Syrian-Jordanian border hoping that neither side fires at them despite the heavy probability both would attempt to down Israeli aircraft. Then there is always the option which the Israelis have proven to be very adept at implementing, namely knocking the radar and anti-aircraft facilities offline and down while the Israelis fly low and fast across the airspace. This was exactly how they took out Saddam Hussein’s reactor and ending his nuclear dreams and how they bombed the Iranian and North Korean reactor being built in Syria right before they were to install the core making the site highly radioactive and thus unsuitable to bomb without contaminating the entire area. The impending core instillation was the deciding factor which forced Israel to act to avoid any nuclear contamination from their strike. Still, taking out the nuclear facilities within Iran would be a difficult task for even the United States and near impossible for Israel. Further, should Iran detect Israeli missiles coming from Israel, even if Israel assured the Iranian leaders that they carried merely conventional warheads, the Iranians would assume Israel was launching nuclear weapons and would respond with their nuclear tipped missiles. There will be those who will claim that Iran does not have warheads of a nuclear nature. Where that assessment may be valid for thermonuclear warheads, and we suspect even that is a false assumption, they most assuredly have simple atomic bombs which would be sufficient to destroy all of Israel, it is that size thing again. Iran would respond with weapons of mass destructions (WMD), both nuclear and chemical weapons, which would be the Israeli response to the Iranian firing missiles at Israel. Either nation would have a few minutes, say about fifteen to twenty, to decide on their means of desired response to any attack by the other. This is exactly what makes any confrontation between Iran and Israel; both nuclear powers as far as we are concerned, so vital that it be avoided as the resultant damage to both nations and the region would be incalculable. Israel would be decimated if even merely three such weapons hit home while Iran would also face extreme losses as Tehran and the nuclear facilities would all have become wastelands as well, not to mention likely Qom plus the known nuclear facilities located near Karadzic, Arak, Natanz, Isfahan and Bushehr.


Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison


Fortunately, Russia wants no part in any greater war than the one they already regret. This means that Iran would be tempting losing the Russian assistance in Syria by attacking Israel from within the Syrian battlefield. Granted, the Iranians are probably perfectly well capable of picking up any slack caused by a Russian departure and such might even work eventually to the Iranian’s favor. Still, Iran would likely be far more comfortable losing Russian aircraft and pilots rather than their own. The Syrian fighting has already taken a toll on Hezballah and the Iranians will need to remain in Syria and nation-build, something the Americans know all too well the cost for doing such. The rebuilding of Syria will be expensive and if the Europeans are smart, then they will not volunteer or take contracts to assist in rebuilding Syria and instead force Iran to foot the bill as well as accomplish such a task, but that may just be too much to ask of the Europeans. They have shown a propensity to aid Iran in almost every way possible especially with modernizing much of Iran with the monies Iran received from the Obama administration. With Russia stationed in Syria, this may be the sobering influence which will keep the lid on the bottle for the time being. Still, Israel need prepare for that day when the sky will fill with rockets and missiles and the Air Force and Ground forces will need to react quickly and neutralize all of the assets in Lebanon for starters. After that, there will be an even higher likelihood of the IRGC mounting an attack from Syria and even potentially Jordan as the Iranian forces could attempt almost anything for an advantage. Israel should think about ways to prevent such from ever coming to fruition. Assisting clandestinely, of course, regime change in Iran by first freeing the political prisoners in Evin Prison and thus supercharging the resistance to the Mullocracy, a resistance which is building despite or because of the efforts to suppress the people’s freedoms. Freedom, once tasted by the Persians, was something which remained in their spirit that Islam was unable to extinguish. That might be the secret weapon for ending the Ayatollah’s curse on Iran, once the mighty Persian Empire with a solid and forgiving religion of Zoroastrianism, often thought to be the birthing place for many other religions including Judaism. Zoroastrianism is one of a very few religions even older than Judaism as it dates back to the times of Abraham and through the times of Moses, Joshua, the Israelites and was there in the background during the Purim story times and still has its few but dedicated minority. Perhaps that is the answer in Iran, a return to sanity and their Zoroastrianistic roots. Then Iran and Israel can share the relations they had before President Carter poisoned Iran with the Ayatollahs and the Mullocracy. That would end the funding for Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas as well as decommission of the IRGC. That would permit freedom to come to Iraq though that might be a hard sell. Whatever it would result in being, such a return by the Persian People would be a grand win for the powers of freedom and liberty.


Beyond the Cusp



March 1, 2018

Failure of Palestinian Arab Society


The world decries the sad state of life for the average Palestinian Arabs residing under the Palestinian Authority (PA) which is run completely by Fatah (we will be using Fatah as synonymous with Palestinian Authority) and Mahmoud Abbas or those residing under Hamas rule in Gaza. The one favorite reason given for these failures, despite their coming from two opposing systems, is that Israel has not permitted them to succeed. This excuse was prevalent under President Obama and pervades throughout Europe and the main sign has been the presumed lack of elections under Hamas or Fatah. The Europeans blame Israel for this situation despite all evidence to the contrary. In Gaza, Hamas holds dictatorial power only changing leaders when Hamas decides this is necessary usually after a single individual has accrued sufficient money stashed in banks around the world that they are assured a comfortable retirement, as recently occurred with Khaled Mashaal stepping down with Ismail Haniyeh being promoted to take his place while Yahya Sinwar was promoted from being leading officer of the military wing to now take political charge in Gaza. Khaled Mashaal is estimated to have collected a self-worth of approximately $2.5 billion. While in Gaza upon the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004, the emergency election placed his second in command, Mahmoud Abbas in charge of Fatah, the PLO, the PA and the Central Committee. Abbas was to serve a five-year term and is currently in his thirteenth year in office with no elections being held as Abbas knows that he would be replaced by whomever Hamas decides to place on the ballot. Abbas is also aware that once he loses his position, he loses his armed guards and would be fortunate to get out of the area alive. There will be no election held for the Palestinian Arabs in either camp as Hamas and Fatah will continue to hold their power in their respective regions.


Then there are the constant attempts to reconcile the differences between Hamas and Fatah and unify rule over the Palestinian Arabs, as this has been a demand by Europe such that a single entity or state can be formed once this is accomplished. As long as there exist two separate entities, the feeling is Israel can claim they have no peace partner, as nobody represents the complete Arab community. The current attempt is being taken by Egypt and was announced a few months back as having all the appearances of coming success. The negotiations have since collapsed and are stymied at an impasse. This is unsurprising as there can be no common ground between Fatah and Hamas. The base problem is that Hamas is a religious movement based in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood and Fatah is a nationalist political movement. The two are like oil and water, no matter how much you shake them trying to find some unity, they simply do not mix. Currently the situation is very counterintuitive as in Gaza the people desire a return of Fatah ruling them as they are tired of the corruption of Hamas stealing all their funds and supplies to fund terrorism and enrich their leadership while in Judea and Samaria the Arabs under Fatah desire Hamas as they are tired of the corruption of Fatah stealing their funds for their leadership to enrich themselves and live lavish lives. Even should both entities get the change in leadership, the corruption will remain the same and the people will continue to suffer. The problem is that neither group, be it Fatah or Hamas, is willing to provide honest and fair leadership and instead end up like every other Islamic governance no matter if its base is political or religious, they will end up as dictatorial with all the wealth going to those at the top and nothing being used to provide for the people. Even in the one place where Islam and good governance had existed, Turkey after Mustafa Kemal Atatürk provided the Turkish people with a Constitution and governance which served the people and separated Mosque and government which functioned for many decades until Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to power promising to return to Islamic principles. Erdoğan delivered on his promise and now he sits as the head of the government and even should he change titles from President to Prime Minister or Prime Minister to President, the power follows the man and not his title and he has taken Turkey down the road to ruin. Turkey was a wealthy and prosperous nation and had almost run through its vast reserves and will soon begin to resemble Egypt, the Sudan or other functional Islamic governances where the people face high unemployment and moving to a modern society is so slow it does not even rate being called a crawl.


The answer to the problems in the Middle East is to force a separation between Islam and the governance and to educate the people and develop industries and provide jobs and real wealth for the people. The problem is that under Islamic rule the leaders are rewarded with great wealth while the people wallow in dire poverty. The Imams take whatever wealth is available in exchange for not opposing the government and allowing the leadership to remain in power and well to do. Where there is oil, the people have better lives but still have no future and once the oil runs its course, there will be nothing to finance the government and things will turn for the worse and they will end up just like the other Islamic nations either in civil war, popular uprising, dictatorship backed by the military, dictatorship backed by the Imams, or theocracy with the Imams or Mullahs holding the real power. Find an Arab or Middle East and North African (MENA) nation where there is a government which is different from the above mentioned. Unfortunately, such a search is pretty much doomed to failure as are the nations with these forms of government. Egypt may be the closest thing to an actual democratic government but the government still has a former military chief as its President and the one person most likely to replace him is another military officer.


The people are largely uneducated and there is a civil war against their Coptic Christians. This is the bogeyman in most Islamic states, the non-Muslims are blamed for every problem and thus routinely struck with violent hatred and uprisings often backed by the military which only steps in to end the violence once the people are satisfied that they have struck fear into these minorities. The world saw all so plainly what happens to minorities in Islamic governance that the Islamic State started to wipe out the Yazidis in Iraq and what the Islamic State did to the libraries and remains of ancient civilizations simply because they were not Islamic. A similar thing happened in Afghanistan to the Buddhas of Bamiyan which were many hundreds of years old and were some of, if not the, largest such Buddhas in the world destroyed simply because they were considered idols and un-Islamic (see images below). This is the fate of anything which is not considered Islamic under the current form of governance and intolerance in the Islamic world. This includes people who are tortured and forced to convert and if refusing, then they will be put to death. Even should one believe differently and still be a Muslim, such as the Shiites and the Sunnis, they will not tolerate any diversion from what the current leadership considers to be the correct form of Islam. This intolerance is found throughout the Islamic world and the most strong evidence is the war Iran is waging to make Shiite Islam the dominant form.


Buddhas of Bamiyan before pictured on the left and being destroyed with explosives by Taliban forces on the right

Buddhas of Bamiyan before pictured on the left and
being destroyed with explosives by Taliban forces on the right


The Iranians leadership, the Mullahs, believe that they have been tasked to bring the end times and spread Shia Islam to the entirety of the world or subject the world to their rule and only then can they consider their charge to be complete. They desire to impress their form and only their form of Islam despite Sunni Islam outnumbering Shia Muslims by multiples as they know that if they can prevail and defeat Saudi Arabia and take their oil fields and the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina, they will have become the strong horse which will then gain the allegiance of the rest of Islam. This is very likely the first priority of the Iranian leadership once they solidify their Shiite Crescent to surround Saudi Arabia. The Iranians also intend to be the Islamic force which annihilates all the Jews of Israel and eventually the world. They believe very strongly in the Quranic calls which translate as, “The Hour will not be established until you fight with the Jews, and the stone behind which a Jew will be hiding will say. “O Muslim! There is a Jew hiding behind me, so kill him.” (Sahih Bukhari volume 4 book 52 number 177) There are also references which equate Jews to pigs and apes or also rats. There are verses throughout the litany of Islamic literature which denigrates Jews often doing so while including Christians but sufficiently often alone that one could conclude the Islamic hatred against Jews is particularly virulent and pervasive. The Iranians wish to be the ones who are able to claim they have begun the first stages of the end times and the coming of the Mahdi, the Twelfth Imam. This is the belief of the Twelvers, a group of specifically ardent Shia Muslims who believe that the Twelfth Imam hid in a well to escape assassins sent by the Sunni and lives there to this day near the holy city of Qom. The Mullahs have built a causeway from Qom to Tehran so the Twelfth Imam can easily make the voyage before declaring the beginning of the Islamic end times and their imminent conquest of the world in a great conflagration filled of chaos, violence and great carnage where the unbelievers will be decimated. But Iran is a peaceful trading partner, just ask Germany, France and many other European nations.


Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran


The Iranians are once again being sought by Hamas to provide rockets, missiles and weapons to use against Israel. Iran will support both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the latter being a paid subsidiary of Iran much like Hezballah, just smaller. Iran is all but drooling over the possibility of also gaining inroads to Fatah and the PA. This would provide for them a knife pointed at the center of Israel and when combined with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the IRGC in the Sinai Peninsula and Syria and the Iranian Army and Air Force in Syria and the Iranian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea near Eilat, and Hezballah in Lebanon with approaching 200-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and ranges with some capable of reaching Cairo and Riyadh, let alone all of Israel, allowing an assault on Israel on every front with only the small stretch of border with Jordan south of the Dead Sea along the eastern edge of Israel, assuming Jordan has not fallen to Iran; they believe that is the magic formula for the destruction of Israel. They apparently have not learned history as in 1948, without an actual functioning military, with virtually no air force plus nobody willing to sell Israel even a BB-gun outside of Czechoslovakia, Israel was attacked by Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia along with some select forces from Turkey, Yemen, the Sudan, Algeria, Libya also including the forces fighting under the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Amin al-Husseini with German (Nazi) officers advising and several militias and families attacked Israel on the day of her founding. As well as having been fighting them for the two years previous, but at a less obvious level so as not to have the British interfere which was required to prevent a few pogroms, invading from every border and fighting the Jews from within (the Jews did have a small number of Arabs who fought with them to preserve the nation as they did not wish to live under Islamic rule) and somehow over the next two years of on and off warfare, the Jews survived. Iran believes that they now have the magic combination with the addition of nuclear, including thermonuclear, weapons that they can wipe Israel from the map along with everyone they have at the borders.


All of this is simply further proof of why the Arabs, especially the Palestinian Arabs, are unable to establish functioning governance. Their entire governance is based on destroying Israel with no concern for building an economy and providing necessities for the people. That is a recipe for failure on all fronts. Israel has developed one of the most robust and accurate anti-missile systems with overlapping layers. There are the Arrow Systems; there are three systems in use, David Sling and Magic Wand, Iron Dome, Trophy Systems for vehicle and installation last line of protection and additional measures including from space and ground based installations which are so secretive that some only have their military nomenclature and have not even been named as of this article. Needless to add, the Israelis have systems in place and operational which can take out ICBMs and CBMs anywhere from their initial launching to any point in their trajectory and no matter their path or other measures as Israel probably developed the countermeasure for these offensive systems before the offensive systems were fully tested and placed into service. Attempting to strike Israel with missiles is possible, but it is not financially effective for the attacking nation (or for Israel except Israelis think it well worth the cost if they get to live). Israel has prepared sufficient defensive measures to prevent effective missile strikes such that their layered system has as many as three or even four systems overlapping at many distances. There is a reason why Iran gave Hezballah approaching 200-thousand rockets and missiles; their intent is to overload the Israeli defenses with numbers hoping that some make it through and if they are lucky, actually cause distress and damage possibly also some number of casualties. There is the final level of Israeli preparedness; the public is well trained through experience in finding and taking cover in shelters in case of rocket or missile attack. It is this training and practice which prevents catastrophic casualties as there often are in Gaza where Hamas had not built shelters and often sacrifices civilians to protect their rockets and launchers. Visit the Internet and search for Gaza children rocket launcher and there will be pictures and videos showing the use of children to protect these weapons. Israel will remain despite the attacks and the Arab people, especially the Palestinian Arabs who are on the front line and thus the ones demanded to make the most sacrifices, as Israeli governance treats lives as precious, even Palestinian Arab lives which they attempt to prevent, but one cannot prevent casualties when your opposition has as its main intent to have the maximum number of civilian casualties to show the world. They get their own people killed and then blame Israel and the world drinks this up with great gusto. The one piece of good news in everything thusfar, Hashem will provide that Israel survives and does so with minimal casualties and even minimal damages. This has been proven thusfar and there is no reason to doubt it continuing. Unfortunately for the Palestinian Arabs, you are left being the pawns sacrificed by your leaders such that they can have lavish lives and live the good life. If you reside in Gaza and your apartment building has been destroyed, go visit the westernmost areas where your leaders reside and see the complete lack of damage. Do you desire to know why this is so? The reason is that they never launch rockets or mortars from these areas and thus the Israelis do not launch at these areas. Perhaps you should ask the IDF to target these places and make your leaders also enjoy making great sacrifices you have been called upon to make.


Beyond the Cusp


October 16, 2017

Israel Palestinian Conundrum Culmination


For initial articles, click for first here and click for second here.


Where two days ago we gave some potential options and yesterday, we gave a possible scenario; the scenario was less than wonderful for much of the free world and horrific for Israel. The fortunate thing is that none of these things are likely to occur. There is a small fly in the ointment and it is about the size of the average rhinoceros. We mentioned the problem and some of you probably caught the problem, Hamas gets to retain their twenty-five-thousand man Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades military. This will be the central question to be resolved at the Cairo meeting on Tuesday, November 21, where the reconciliation will be finalized. The main stumbling block will be Hamas’ insistence on retaining their rather large police/security forces, well over ten-thousand strong plus their military wing, all twenty-five thousand well-armed men with a number of officers trained in Iran. The initial agreement allowed Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) to station a security force numbering about ten-thousand officers strong. If you do the math, it turns into thirty-five thousand Hamas force fully armed against the PA lightly armed ten-thousand police force largely toting with side arms. It’s not really a fair fight, which is why we are glad that we are not part of their security force. Hamas has little intention of allowing the PA to actually take control over Gaza and is simply making the initial steps towards unification which will come to a crashing halt at their next meeting. This has happened before with the initial agreement being reached in order to throw a large wrench into the machinery while everything falls apart subsequently after whatever peace proposals forming are burned to ashes from whence they came. The PA and Hamas are great believers in ashes to ashes when it comes to peace initiatives. As we explained over the last two days, there are quite a few peace proposals being initiated or given some trial run and the PA was getting quite nervous that things just might turn against them and they would be trapped by Trump or Mudar Zahran or whoever so they turned to their supposed rivals for a little cooperation for a period of time sufficient to destroy all peace proposals.


What it comes down to is that Mahmoud Abbas, the leadership of Hamas, of Fatah, of the PLO and of the PA have millions of reasons why they do not desire peace at any price. Each of those reasons has a Dollar or a Euro attached to them and amount to millions per year except for Mahmoud Abbas and family where it comes to millions per month. They cannot accept any form of peace treaty where Israel remains as a Jewish State. It could remain as an Islamic run state under sharia law where the Jews are subject to the Jizya and the Jews, Christians and anyone not within the PA, PLO or Fatah are dhimmi subjected to the shame and degradations which goes along with dhimmitude. The problem for Mahmoud Abbas is he promised to destroy the Zionist Entity otherwise known as Israel or the Jewish State. He promised to accomplish this by swamping Israel with millions of displaced Arabs, something he actually did not have until recently with the destruction and dissolving of Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and the Arab world in general after the Arab Spring initiated by President Obama with the able support of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Hamas has an even larger promise they intend to keep. They also want to destroy Israel as the Jewish state but want to also eradicate the Jewish population. Just to make things clear, Hamas wants to eradicate the entirety of the Jewish population everywhere. The rest of the terror groups are either attached to the PA, PLO plus Hamas or they are permitted to operate within the areas under their control. Islamic Jihad is one such group who operates within Gaza and is aided by Iran and work cooperating with Hamas. Sometimes Hamas uses the presence of Islamic Jihad as an excuse for terror strikes when they need to explain attacks against treaties. There are a number of other minor groups operating in Gaza plus rumors that al-Qaeda, Islamic Jihad and Muslim Brotherhood have been known to operate command and control people out of Gaza controlling their Sinai Peninsula forces. All of these groups depend on there being no peace with Israel to continue their operations.


The reconciliation, as we keep stating, was used as it always has, to destroy any possibility for any peace talks or other potential for ending the Palestinian cause which has been used as a center for terror operations worldwide. Hezballah in Lebanon has been used as a conduit by Iran to funnel weapons into Gaza for Islamic Jihad and at times for Hamas as well. Hezballah is not just a terror group working for Iran in Lebanon as well as Syria but also worldwide with a large base in the tri-border area in South America where Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil borders meet. Hezballah uses the area for training and attack simulations for operations anywhere in the world. They work with the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) which includes a special group, the al-Quds force, which specializes in attacks to attack Israel in general and Jerusalem in particular (al-Quds is the Muslim Arab name for Jerusalem). The faithful execution of any missions such cells may be utilized to commit is often assured through holding family members within Lebanon as persuasion over their actions and trusted loyalty. We know Iran has extensive abilities to strike anywhere within the Americas as we witnessed in two separate bombings in Argentina; the first was the bombing of the Israeli Embassy on March 17, 1992, with the second being the bombing of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) on July 18, 1994, both in Buenos Aires. The IRGC likely cooperating with Hezballah have also attacked American interests such as murdering United States Marines in their barracks in Lebanon as well as assaulting the United States Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya. All of these attacks were either simulated in Lebanon, Iran or the tri-border area before being triggered on their actual targets. Iran also supplies Islamic Jihad and often Hamas and has attempted to make inroads into Fatah and the PLO as they try to encircle Israel. This is information which should be sufficient evidence that the terrorism which starts with Israel will not remain contained in Israel. This lesson has been pressed on Europe as their Islamist infiltration has brought with it terrorism similar in nature as Israel faces. The United States has also been targeted by terrorism including the horrific attacks of 9/11 and numerous others since and before.


Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities


The real problem is that there can be no solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict which allows for the continued existence of Israel as the Jewish state. Where many within the European power structure appear to be fine with solutions which would erase the Jewish nature of Israel if it would bring their Islamist problem to a close, it would actually change nothing. Additionally, Israel as the Jewish state is not going anywhere and is back to stay. Further, the United States is linked with Israel though there are signs that this bond may be weakening. The Democrat Party has decided that Israel is expendable while the Republican Party has become the pro-Israel party. This might appear strange as most Jews support the Democrat Party with blind passion. The reality comes down to the fact that the Evangelical Christians support Israel and are an important group for the Republican Party. Completely opposite of what many claim, often vindictively, the United States supports Israel because the Jews control the government when the reality is the largest group in the United States supporting Israel are the Christians. This is not hard to see, as Jews are, at most, a mere two and a half percent of the total population. Israel is once again a political football which will be fumbled by many amongst the Democrat Party only to now be picked up by the Republican Party, a change from the earlier periods of Israel. The United States may find itself more alone in supporting Israel and this could lead to more challenges ahead. There are some who predict that the United States may soon find Israel too much a burden to continue their support and this leads these people to claim that once Israel no longer has American protection they will face an isolation which could spell the end of Israel. They claim that Israel is completely dependent upon American military aid.


The reality is that Israel can survive without the military aid providing Israel takes the steps necessary to become self-sufficient militarily. This would require Israel to begin making their own weaponry including the ammunition. Israel currently uses the .223 ammunition which is consistent with NATO despite Israel not belonging to NATO. The advantage is Israel manufactures this ammunition, as do numerous nations. Israel makes very fine rifles and their Merkava tank is first rate. They are capable in almost every area with two main weaknesses, ships and aircraft. The Israeli Navy is dependent upon Germany for her submarines which are all Dolphin class and depends on European shipyards for their Corvette class ships. Israel might be capable of constructing her own ships and even submarines if pressed as she does much of the outfitting of her ships and adapting the submarines to fit her requirements. The challenge Israel would face would be manufacture of her own aircraft, something Israel should start to consider seriously. Israel is receiving the United States fifth generation fighter F-35 JSF. This is a decent stealth airframe but they are also very expensive. Fortunately, the United States gave Israel financial assistance, something which will become more difficult as the United States debt situation grows, for reasons which historians will be dumbfounded to explain, makes supporting anybody impossible. Israel has sufficient GDP to afford the costs of developing her own aircraft and the additional jobs would be a boost to her economic health providing well paying jobs. Further, Israel could enter into the arms market and if past developments of technology, then any aircraft she produced would very likely be of a quality worthy of competing with that of any other nation and in demand on the world market. The avionics for the export model along with weapons targeting and other systems would be different than those she produced for her own use which is the same as every other nation. Most nations prefer placing their own systems of avionics and weapons rather than depend on other nations systems for such sensitive equipment.


Israel also has to take charge of the entire peace process. This can only be accomplished once Israel is completely self-sufficient militarily and in most other industries as well as food production leaving very little to outside providers. Israel is one of the few, if not the only, nation which could conceivably face a complete embargo from the industrialized world or even the entire world. This would mean that Israel would, and needs to face this soon if not immediately, needs to rely totally on her own production of weapons, food, automobiles and all other products which Israelis could need or simply desire. Finally, many of these items from cell phones to cherry tomatoes to software were invented or developed in Israel. The gaps which Israel faces also includes their not having a domestic vehicle, car or trucks of all sizes, production but for a nation with the capabilities Israel has shown, they will most likely produce a vehicle which runs on air and water. Any nation capable of such inventiveness will pull through despite what challenges the world throws at her. And the peace will only work when the reputed but disputed words of Golda Meir, “Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us.”


Beyond the Cusp


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