Beyond the Cusp

January 28, 2019

What Did Ireland Do To You Lately?

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:01 AM
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In my little corner of the world, perched snuggled in at the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, we have read that Ireland does not like all Israelis equally and shows disdain for those Jews who employ thousands of Arab Palestinians who could lose their jobs if what Ireland decided to support works. The prototypical example was SodaStream. SodaStream was an Israeli owned and run company with their main manufacturing plant beyond the Green Line. The BDS boycotters harried and hassled with noisy demonstrations, often inside the grocery store targeted, such that they joined the boycott of SodaStream. NGO’s had bought advertisements calling for the boycott of SodaStream. Well, SodaStream was a growing company and required a larger plant. They decided that they had been targeted enough and built their new plant within the Green Line selling off the land they had in the industrial park. This closing resulted in five-hundred Arab Palestinians losing their well paying jobs. Some were managers and in upper supervisory positions. These were jobs which paid better than almost anything one can do beyond the Green Line. Ireland wants every Israeli employed Arab Palestinian to lose their jobs. Probably, when Ireland has convinced others that destroying jobs helps the Arab Palestinian cause, then they will accuse Israel of not employing Arab Palestinians finding this a deplorable example of racism. That is a simple plan, cause a problem and then blame the Jews for the problem you caused. There is a name for such activity.

 

Does anybody remember what the first thing Hitler arranged to occur? He gave Germany the Brownshirts to destroy a mere ten percent of the stores in the Jewish Quarter of every major German city. His hope was it would frighten the rest into packing up and leaving. The Jews insisted on remaining as they had rights in the German Republic. Turns out that was a very bad plan. Ze’ev Jabotinsky made numerous appeals in an attempt to take the Jews from Europe, at least Poland and Germany, as many as possible. They scoffed at him and claimed he was a conspiracy type, having wild visions that the Jews who had been living in relative safety, the pogrom here or there every four or five years, but millions are not in danger, how could that be. Well, the rest is history, but it started with targeting a limited number of Jews, just those Jews. Jews need to learn that if there is one bad Jew, then we need be wary; when it becomes those Jews, it is time to go. They even asked where could they flee to, what country would take us in, they wanted to know. Eretz Yisroel was his answer and they had heard that life was rough in Israel where much of the world is very much like hard labor digging new irrigation to replace a swamp, of course step one is drain the swamp. That was not for them, they were merchants and tradesmen, not ditch diggers. Ditch digger probably looked like a very enticing place to be in a few years when the world darkened its soul. Then, anything in the Holy Land would have been better than the camps. They had made the most dreadful mistake not seeing the signs and doing something, anything to avoid what came.

 

Ignoring the signs is a modern thing as well. I do not wish to talk about Europe or North America and what they may be ignoring at their own peril. I want to remain with Israel and what she hopefully has planned out is an exacting plan, as almost any plan is preferable to waiting until it is on the verge of too late. Razor thin margins between horrific devastation and, Whew, that was a close one. The world knows about the rioting along the Gaza border which is ratcheted up and allowed to mellow until they decide Israel needs a good poking and stoking the riot cauldron. Gaza became such old news that even when they launch a volley of rockets every so often, that barely makes the news as the Iron Dome has proven very well worth the investment. Then there is Mahmoud Abbas, eighty-one-year-old Mahmoud Abbas. There are no set in place replacement as was with Arafat who had groomed Mahmoud making him the obvious next in line. There is no next in line, there are quite a few and this problem we discussed just the other day. The result will likely be Hamas takes as much of the lands as they have support, which they actually do in the Arab Palestinian society. But they are still a relative known, for now.

 

Then there is Lebanon and Hezballah. That can be summed up in a single fact, they have approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles pointed at the length and breadth of Israel. They have installed bunker positions connected by tunnels throughout the entire region south of the Litany River. They have ambush sites specifically for catching tanks and the anti-tank rockets to put a hurt on any tank, be it a Merkava, Abrams, Leopard, Black Panther, Armata or Challenger, the top six tanks in the world. Many of their firing and sniper locations are inside of people’s homes as are some of their mortars and rocket launchers. Every town as well as the cities are a maze of interconnected positions and command and control points. The entire arrangement used by Hezballah, as well as Hamas, is designed for a smaller and lighter armed group to overwhelm a more heavily armored and presumably more advanced, though that is no longer a truth as the Iranian computer systems and communications are actually quite good, but presumably superior enemy by making them pay dearly for every block and face ambushes on the connecting roads. The way to defeat this type of force is actually very easy, bomb the entire area until the entire land mass has dropped about ten feet, and then drop incendiary bombs to sanitize the rest. This is the way wars were fought by the powers in both World Wars, and then these same nations decided to write a code such that they could never do such warfare again. Do you know what happens to any civilization which decides that there are limits in what one is permitted to do in performance of military actions. They are conquered by the first group who is willing to use things beyond these limits, many things from amongst the worst variety which you would never resort to using. Israel refuses to use such a plan, they would never even write such a plan, because it would be such a waste of human lives is an abomination to Israelis and their military. For proof we offer any of the numerous testimonies given by foreign officers who served as observers during IDF activities both in war and peacekeeping such as British Officer Richard Kemp on Israeli Defense Force tactics and actions.

 

So, massive bombing and raining down missiles will not likely be the Israeli response to an enemy completely prepared for a ground invasion and susceptible to an air campaign. So, if and when it becomes unavoidable, Israel will resort to playing by their enemy’s rules with a ground slog. That becomes position to position fighting with house to house in towns and cities, and watching for ambush on any open ground movement. This is the most difficult means of clearing a region and poses the highest risks to your soldiers, but it prevents civilian casualties as much as the situation enables. That is why Israel uses her soldiers in situations where heavy bombing would be faster and save on IDF casualties. But that would also kill too many presumably innocent civilians of southern Lebanon.

 

But the final front is potentially the most threatening, and that is the small section of the Golan Heights and the border with Syria. Syria offers some unique situations and peculiar angles all in one short border. The real enemy on the other side of the Golan Heights is not so much Syria as it is Iran, specifically the IRGC, and Hezballah. They send up a few rockets every couple of weeks just to test if Israel sleeping at the switch. Israel has struck numerous targets within Syria but, and here is the wild part, without ever violating Syria airspace. There is a simple problem with making one of your limits overflying Syria, the range as to how deeply your missiles launched from over Israel can penetrate into Syria. But this is the chosen response of which we are aware. The problem with shots coming from the Syrian side of the border is one has to first determine what this particular incident represents. It could be an errant round from a firefight in Syria, was it a sniper shot, and if so, what was the firing position. Then there are larger objects which on occasion have come across the border. There were artillery rounds fired which were using the wrong targeting address, the numbers were transposed. That was relatively easily resolved. But then there are those other objects which are intentionally fired or launched at Israel. There are artillery rounds which target vehicles, plural, and positions, also plural, or are observed lining up and firing with intent to strike Israeli targets, military and civilian, then comes the time to eliminate that particular firing position or positions. Sniper fire need be suppressed and the sniper eliminated if possible. The easiest to determine is the anti-tank missiles. These are line of sight missiles with a variety of aiming controls, some better than others, but the projectile is largely straight-line path. There is no doubt what was targeted and from whence the projectile was launched. There is a trail of smoke leading to a large cloud of dust and debris from the back-blast of the launch which denotes exactly where the weapon was fired. This makes removing that weapon fairly easy while the operator somewhat more difficult as a smart operator leaves the weapon and puts distance between themselves and the point the weapon was fired as quickly as they are able often having a spot prepared for them to leap behind as protection from return fire. Then there are the rockets which are fired weekly. Finally, there are the drones, many of which were weaponized, which have been flown by numerous means into Israel. There have been preprogrammed drones which are made most often for a specific attack which the drone takes a complicated, low-profile approach to the target becoming visible only when it raises up to fire. There are those with human pilots which are useful for hunting a target such as a vehicle or person which is of particular importance. Then there are drones which are computer guided with a human operator overseeing the flight and in case of detection, they can take command of the drone in order to retreat. Sometimes all that might take is pressing a key which puts in place an override set of directions. All of these types of events of fire have occurred with somewhat regular rate of occurrence. The main reason nobody has heard about this is simple, Israel has not violated Syrian airspace while Iran, Hezballah, IRGC and Syrian forces have all invaded Israeli airspace and fired upon Israeli positions and civilians. All of those events where they crossed into Israel, specifically with the drones, were acts of war, which as Israel is still with war with Syria really makes everything even stranger than usual. Israel needs more than solutions for each of these fronts but far more. Israel needs a select group of precise plans and target lists for the first two hours, because that is exactly how quickly actions will be required, for any three fronts erupting in a coordinated fashion to maximize their initial strikes.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

Now for the numbers about Iran and Israel, mostly real numbers but we will tell when the numbers are our projections. The first thing is that Iran has numerous missiles which easily reach over two-thousand kilometers, more than for enough to strike Israel. Iranian missiles have excellent guidance packages with many different kinds. Their accuracy is within meters of any intended target. They also have numerous rockets with sufficient range to reach Israel from Iran if their desire is to lob rockets indiscriminately at any general region. Iran can fire their rockets and missiles from anywhere in Iran and strike Israel, and where within Iraq as well as anywhere in much of Syria or even from Yemen if they are seeking to try a surprise, though mostly they fire at Saudi Arabia from Yemen. Israel can easily strike Iran and probably strike any target within a matter of under a meter and has tracking systems so as to strike the launch point no matter where Iran launches so return fire can be almost immediate. Iran has a slight size advantage over Israel, as it is seventy-nine times the size of Israel. Contrary to the fables that the United States and European media have been feeding the world, the Iranians have worked on atomic weapons since the late 1980’s and have very likely been making atomic warheads very probably for fifteen to twenty years, according to our guess. As one can see on the map, Iran has seven nuclear installations and four of them are Uranium mines. This means they have all the necessary nuclear material within their borders for the production of atomic bombs. The odds are they also have cracked how to miniaturize hydrogen fusion bombs and by our figuring they could have as many as fifteen to fifty all depending on their ability to get the necessary isotopes for the construction of a device. In the case of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, it is doubtful Israel would survive anywhere resembling intact were Iran to launch everything all in a single strike; but Iran also would not survive the exchange despite the size differential. The problem is the Grand Ayatollah has stated that he is willing to permit the destruction of Iran if that also means that Israel was destroyed, as that would be a fair price to pay. Most, if not the vast majority, of Israelis would not accept this exchange as most hold no animosity for the Iranian people and do not wish them such harm, only their own government believes this would be acceptable. What is so worrying is that it appears as if Iran is attempting to set up some reason for making a war with Israel and using their presence in Syria in order to provoke such an attack that they could utilize it to demand the complete destruction of Israel and then fill the obvious void for the Arab world and destroy Israel themselves and claiming their victory with the hopes of turning the Arab world over to Shiite Islam. The leadership in Iran is not mentally stable or possibly not even sane by most standards, but they are heavily armed, potentially with advanced nuclear weapons and chemical weapons, are establishing hegemony across the Middle East and see destroying Israel as their right and privilege to do so for Allah. They feel similarly about the United States and only a little less antagonistic towards Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. They have often mentioned being the new Persian Empire. Iran is probably amongst the top ten dangerous nations most likely to start the next great cataclysm.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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January 14, 2019

Latest Israeli Aggression Scandal

 

There have been reports and the follow-up denunciations over Israeli airstrikes against positions within Syria. Why this should bother people is beyond understanding. Even the fact that there was a ceasefire reached between Syria and Israel quite some time ago, the recent and numerous attacks upon Israeli sovereign soil ended any such agreement. We understand that after every rocket launched, artillery fire, sniper shootings and other aggressions by forces in Syria there has been the spurious apologies claiming they were all accidental. This included a number of drones which have crossed and flown over Israeli communities in the Galilee with armaments on many of these drones which were fortunately intercepted before they claimed lives or destroyed whatever was their intended target. All of these incidents would be considered acts of war were they perpetrated against any nation other than Israel. Because these blatant attacks were merely against Israel, the standing opinion is that Israelis need to just suck it up and absorb such assaults from time to time simply because the world demands so. Well, let us tell you a little truth, Israel is an equal with any other nation and if your leaders believe that such attacks upon Israel sovereign soil is nothing to get upset about, perhaps you would feel more understanding if you lived in our neighborhood and were suffering such intrusions. So, yes, Israel has attacked positions in Syria with the majority of them not even Syrian positions but those of Iran. Let us talk a little about these Iranian outposts.

 

The first thing one need know is that the Iranian leadership has declared that they are at war with Israel. They have blatantly insisted that they will wipe Israel off the map, that Israel is a cancerous tumor which must be excised, that Israel is an offense to Islam and numerous other claims of hostility. Then there are the weekly few hours of hate, they had to go one better than the mere two minutes of hate in the book 1984 by George Orwell, where throngs of Iranians gather in Tehran and other cities after Friday services and chant, “Death to Israel,” and sometimes, “Death to America,” and they do these chants with great fervor and true intent to carry out their claims some day. Well, that day may be approaching should Iran succeed in taking control of Syria and Bashir al-Assad pushing Russia from Syria all together. Iran has set up some IRGC command centers and barracks for their forces which are supporting al-Assad in the slaughter of his own people as he attempts to retake what is left of his former country. The fact that the United States, on orders from President Donald Trump, is on their way out of Syria, that leaves the only true powers in Syria to be Russia and Iran. Allow us to disabuse you if you thought that Russia and Syria were working in conjunction to assist Bashir al-Assad, they are competing for the role of the power behind the throne in Syria and there can be only one. Iran is not about to share Syria with anyone and especially the sea coast and port facilities, the areas which Russia desires most and is willing to go to the mat to retain them. That leaves a question of where does Israel fit into all of this. Well, that is easy as President Trump advised Russian President Putin that he should look to Israel if he ever might need a friend once the United States has departed. This will make for some interesting dialogue and interplay to say the least.

 

This is all part of the future in what is rapidly becoming the new Middle East. We have the United States advising the Russians that for any assistance they may need in Syria to turn to Israel. Meanwhile, there has been a thawing to the point of secretive negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as a whole new attitude by a number of the Gulf States concerning Israel with some potentially making overtures of allowing for diplomatic relations and an exchange of embassies. All of this simply because the Arab Sunni Islamic nations are in fear for their lives from their Persian neighbors and Shiite Islam arising bearing threats against them. Impending upheavals make for very strange bedfellows, don’t they? With the United States on their way out of the entire Middle East, that leaves the two main powers to be Iran (Persia) and Israel. Historically, it was the Persians under Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jews from their Babylonian exile allowing them to return home and build the Second Temple. Further, previous to 1979 and President Jimmy Carter assisting the overthrow of the Shah Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi allowing for Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assume leadership claiming that the Ayatollah, as a religious cleric, had to be a man of peace and tranquility, Iran and Israel had been close friends. Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was the initiator of the hatred and vile spouted by Iranian leaders since his return against Israel and the United States. The embassy crisis followed where student revolutionaries who adhered to the Ayatollah’s teachings seized sixty-six hostages, mostly diplomats and embassy employees. After a short period of time, thirteen of these hostages were released, these were women, African-Americans and not American citizens thus, Khomeini argued that they were subjects of American oppressions. The remainders were held for four-hundred-forty-four days, up until the hour that Ronald Reagan was sworn into office as President of the United States. Thus, President Barack Obama was not the first President to befriend the Iranian Ayatollahs.

 

The main problem for Iran when it comes to making good on their numerous promises of destroying Israel, the Zionist Entity as they often refer to Israel, is that Iran does not share a border with Israel from which to mount an attack. There is a fair distance and a couple of other countries which are in the way (see map below). Iran has already taken care of one of those countries by basically becoming the new rulers, by proxies, of Iraq and they almost completely control Lebanon through Hezballah. The Iranian problem is who takes control of Syria, in particular southern Syria including Damascus and the border along the Golan Heights. This threat makes the fact that Israel has refused to return the Golan Heights to Syria even in exchange of a treaty as history showed that the sniper training was carried out on the Golan Heights with Israeli farmers as their targets. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights, one could safely bet that there would be IRGC troops atop them today shooting into the fertile valleys where most of Israeli farms are located. The threat of Iranian troops amassed along the Lebanese and Syrian borders is the main reason that Israel and Russia have a common problem, Iran. This is where we get to why Israel has been making airstrikes into Syria.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

The problem has been that Iran has all but completed their Shiite Crescent across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea (see map below) and taken control of almost all trade routes and the flow of oil from the Middle East. Their efforts in Yemen and Syria are the only areas which are still being contentious. The Kurds in northern Iraq are not a great concern to Iran as their main reason for desiring Iraq is as a land bridge to the Mediterranean Sea and for supplying their forces in Syria and Lebanon via that land bridge. Their interest in Yemen is in order to pose a threat to Saudi Arabia from the south as well as the north. The two regions within Saudi Arabia which are desired by Iran, as they do not want the large region of sand and rocks in the central region, are the oil fields largely in the northeast and control of Mecca and Medina (where the star is on the map) which are the two holy cities and the claim under which the Saudi Royal family has claimed their right to rule, and the second is the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea which also gives them control over the Suez Canal, the main source of revenue for Egypt other than tourism. Iran has within their own territory the ability to threaten ships passing through the Straights of Hormuz through which almost all of Middle East oil, that of the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, pass through which they have previously blockaded only to have the United States Fifth Fleet reopen the waters by escorting every oil tanker and ship passing through that choke-point. The Iranian aim is to control the entirety of the Middle East through holding every vital seaway and thus holding every Middle East nation hostage with their economies at risk. They have come very close to these goals with only Saudi Arabia preventing their final takeover of Yemen using the Houthis as their proxies while providing them with Hezballah forces as well as IRGC assistance. In Syria Iran has gone further while using Hezballah and IRGC, they have also committed some of the regular Iranian military who are largely assisting with logistics and been responsible for the attempted drone attacks upon Israel.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

So, why has Israel attacked Syria? To be technical, Israel has not attacked Syria as much as they have been preventing the Iranians from setting up home bases in Syria, prevented as much as possible the arming of Hezballah with long range missiles and rockets and other armaments and heavy weapons, and struck at IRGC targets and struck weapons caches which belonged to either Hezballah or the IRGC. Israel has, for the most part, cleared these strikes with Russian commanders such that they not have their forces in the target region. Despite the fact that this could tip off the Iranian forces allowing them time to relocate the particular items which Israel hopes to destroy, Israel still will strike trying not to start a war with Russia, just with Iran and Syria. That would not work well as missile carriers are quite recognizable and easily located. Thus transporting missiles to prevent Israeli airstrikes from destroying them may just be making that easier as they would be in the open. Israel is actually still in a state of war with Syria which makes all of these strikes that much more Kosher. With the exit of the United States, the only things standing between Iran and an open route from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea are Russia and Israel. Further, if we were Jordan, we would be very nervous having the voracious appetite for controlling the Middle Eat and maximizing borders with Saudi Arabia and Israel sitting on their northern and eastern borders. Perhaps it would be advantageous for the King of Jordan to be making nice with Israel and stop picking needless fights just to appease violent Islamists protesting demanding the destruction of Israel. We suspect (though have no proof yet) that these protesters in Jordan are backed by Iran and possibly being trained by IRGC terror experts in an attempt to foment the overthrow of King Abdullah II replacing him with, what else, a Shiite theocracy run by Iran. In order to try to prevent many of these things and beyond what we mentioned here, such as eventually taking Egypt, Turkey and then driving across Europe and who knows after that, Iranian ambitions as stated by the Ayatollah is to rule the world imposing Shia Islam as the sole religion. Iran through Hezballah already has a training region in South America in what is called the Tri-Border Area. How big a potential threat is Iran, well President Trump thinks they are a real big threat and we agreed, discussing the entirety of the threats with this article. Their potential for creating threats reaches to every corner of the earth and hopefully not beyond, at least not yet. Part, a small part, of stopping Iran is the vital link they require in Syria, thus Israel will continue to do what is required to prevent this calamity from occurring to Israel and potentially Europe and beyond.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 11, 2018

Is Third Lebanon War Inevitable?

 

Israel is doing all she is able in order to at least stall war with slim hopes of avoiding it all together. Israel has sent messages pleading with the Lebanese government to end the adaptation of the largest of the one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets into guided missiles with within ten-meter accuracy and some even tighter control. Iran has been shipping guidance packages which can be added to normal rockets turning them into guided missiles capable of targeting any Israeli site and be assured of striking them. Israel has made the upgrade of these rockets into guided missiles a red-line which must not be crossed as allowing such leaves Israel under a definitive threat. Needless to point out, but when one places a red line before any of the many Iranian functionaries, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Hezballah, Iran will push them past that red-line just to goad Israel by providing a threat level which cannot be permitted on her border. It is bad enough that Iran has stocked Hezballah with over one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets of varying sizes and ranges (see table below), but now Iran is providing guidance packages and advisors who taught Hezballah how to retrofit mere rockets making them into guided missiles which transforms the threat level beyond what Israel can permit. This message is being provided to be passed on to Lebanese government, specifically Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri by French President Emmanuel Macron who was to deliver the Israeli warning. The choice is very simple and plainly put, either Lebanon prevents any further retooling of the Hezballah rocket inventory or Israel will break everything Hezballah is utilizing for this purpose and probably somewhat more. This would lay waste to large areas of Beirut as well as the surrounding countryside, the Bekaa Valley and most of the areas south of the Litani River.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

According to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezballah was not to rearm, was to remove all offensive capabilities including manpower from south of the Litani River, abandon and destroy the tunnel and bunker network north of the Israeli border up to the Litani River and not engage Israel with a threat of her destruction. United Nations forces were to enforce these terms and should they fail, circumventing or contravening any of these stipulations was to be considered a casus belli instituting a state of war. Hezballah has ignored, transgressed and shredded every item in this treaty often using United Nations vehicles to transport rockets, munitions, terrorist fighters and support people almost everywhere south of the Litani River. Hezballah has not only repaired but expanded, extended and more fully integrated their tunnels, bunkers, rocket firing position and storage areas throughout the regions south of the Litani River. Hezballah has restocked and augmented their rockets with M-600’s, Zelzal-2 and Scud-D rockets approaching one-hundred-thousand of these longer range rockets as well as presumably incorporated the entire arsenal of the Lebanese Army at their command should they be required to engage with Israel. Israel has observed this build-up but drew a red-line in the sand that she would not tolerate guided missiles which could be made to strike any specific target within Israel potentially causing grievous harm to Israeli infrastructure and her people. This was why Israel had bombed a number of the recent attempts which were providing guided missiles to Hezballah from Iran. Now Iran has taken a different tactic, they have been providing Hezballah with special adapter kits consisting of guidance fins and a targeting system which refits unguided rockets transforming them into guided missiles capable of striking specific targets within Israel.

 

How does the addition of guidance packages to thousands of long-range rockets really change anything when the sheer numbers of Hezballah rockets meant that Israel could be virtually blanketed by rockets. The reality is while Hezballah has these many tens of thousands of larger rockets and could presumably blanket Israel from the north to the southern tip, by making them into guided missiles they can specifically target nuclear power stations in Haifa poisoning the entire area with a blanket of radiation, the Dimona Research Reactor, the skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, train terminals and any other infrastructure including the larger shelters where thousands of Israelis will have gathered to be safe from the rockets. Striking one of these larger shelters with four or five guided missiles one after the other would likely compromise the structure rendering it unsafe and potentially collapsing the structure killing many hundreds of civilians. Further, there will be a limited number of these larger rockets capable of being fired before Israel would strike the launch facilities including the mobile launchers preventing a second wave. Now that first wave of newly converted guided missiles would be capable of crippling Israeli infrastructure killing electrical power to much of the nation as well as destroying fuel reserves and other vital infrastructure. Additionally, Hezballah has been provided with a number of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (see image below). These are the identical units which Russia provided Bashir al-Assad with as a threat to Israeli air operations over Syria. These would require detection and destruction before the majority of Israel jet fighters would be safe flying over Lebanon, especially when making a strike run. The limited number of fifth generation F-35 aircraft would be required to make the first attacks on these systems as their stealth makes them less threatened by this system which uses radar guidance. These systems were a game changer providing Hezballah with advance anti-aircraft capabilities which is capable of intercepting the F-15’s and F-16’s or any other aircraft other than the F-35’s recently added to the Israeli Air Force.

 

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles with Radar System and Control Vehicle

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles
with Radar System and Control Vehicle

 

The Hezballah threat which has continued to slowly but surely build its threat level to the point where permitting any further escalation would make Hezballah a definitive threat which Israel could no longer permit to choose the time of any confrontation. The safety of many Israelis depends on the IDF initiating any war with Hezballah should Hezballah initiate such a conflict and posses guidance package enhanced rockets which could be used to target Israeli military and civilian airfields. One could hope that Iron Dome and other interception systems would intercept a large majority, still even should 90% or more be intercepted out of one-thousand missiles, should the current escalation continue for another six months, such still leaves one-hundred missiles striking their targets. This would allow one-hundred rockets, missiles, mortars and other projectiles striking Israel for ever thousand rockets fired. This would mean that Hezballah currently could have fifteen-thousand rockets strike Israel. This is why the Israeli Air Force must be capable of taking out the vast majority of everything from the smallest rockets to the largest guided missiles. International Law permits nations instigating acts of war against any force across any border which is preparing to have and deliver destruction which is beyond the ability of the nation to absorb and survive. For a country such as the United States or Russia, there exist very few nations which could deliver such destruction upon them and none of these nations share a border with them. Israel, by comparison, is the approximate size of New Jersey and her neighboring nations, even the wreck which is Syria, are intent upon her destruction. Hezballah is currently, with heavy Iranian assistance, crossing the threshold beyond that which Israel can tolerate. The other terror group with their own semi-autonomous region, Hamas, has been threatening Israel and has already caused significant damage burning down virtually every field of crops within fifteen miles or so of the Gaza border with Israel. Israel cannot leave both Hezballah and Hamas in a position to strike at her at the time of their choosing, as such, an attack could hinder Israeli abilities to respond with sufficient swiftness.

 

With Iran controlling Hezballah and the two main terror groups in Gaza, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Israel might very well wake one morning with a war engaging from the north or the south and by the end of the day have a second front break-out on the opposite border thus requiring Israel to commit to a two fronts war. This is not the best of scenarios and would require nearly shutting the country down and calling up virtually all combat reservists. Israel practices such a call-up ever two years just to be able to iron out any difficulties which may erupt as a consequence of such a training mission. When performing such a difficult call-up during a two front war, there would be guaranteed confusion which would take some precious time to iron out. Some of the Commanding Generals on the General Staff have claimed that Israel is incapable of fighting a two front war against the two groups in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon. What could make matters even worse would be if IRGC Iranian troops as well as the Iranian Quds Force also attacked Israel along the Golan Heights and rest of the Syrian border with Bashir al-Assad providing protection from aircraft with his improved S-300 antiaircraft systems as well as giving them air support and artillery support as well. There is even the possibility of the Russian forces in Syria allowing the deploying of their S-400 anti-air defense systems, the most advanced systems the Russians currently deploy. The Russians allowing the use of their advanced F-400 systems might be sufficient coverage against the Israeli F-35 stealth fighters, but maybe not. Such would be the first use official test of the presumed superiority of the F-35 stealth fighters in actual combat against the Russian anti-aircraft systems. Israel would gladly forgo any such war as any time spent in a state of war, especially if it required calling up significant numbers of reserves as that is what results in shutting down much of the Israeli economy. That is what makes any war so costly to Israel, and that is before we have to count the devastating loss of life, especially innocent life on either side.

 

Israel has attempted to express the problem in a number of different ways. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made the threat of the conversion of rockets into guided missiles the central theme of his United Nations speech. He laid out exactly where the underground facilities carrying out the conversion were located including pictures of the soccer field under which two of these conversion sites were operating. He covered the southern Beirut neighborhoods where support operations and coordination was being handled. Prime Minister Netanyahu told that Israel could not allow this threat to continue and grow any further and that should Iran continue using Hezballah to be their proxy with which to attack Israel, that Israel knows the real power behind those forces attempting to destroy the Jewish State. Israel stated that the continued operations to make these missiles into existential threats would force Israel to act and implied that under some circumstances, Israel might find it to her advantage to engage Iran directly to end her supplying Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas with weapons to use against Israel. Trying to avoid an inevitable war has to be frustrating. Where does an Israeli leader turn for help in preventing such a war. There have been messages sent through France, the United States, and even been mentioned in the Al Hayat newspaper where it stated that Israeli National Security Adviser Eitan Ben-David has told French officials that Israel was seeking a diplomatic solution before embarking on a military operation. They cannot claim that nobody warned them any longer and perhaps it is their intention to provoke a war with Israel, but perhaps not at this time. In part of Netanyahu’s speech, he warned Hezbollah that, “Israel knows what you are doing, Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you get away with it.” Also, this past January, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, Brigadier General Ronen Manelis, wrote an op-ed to a Lebanese newspaper in which he directed a warning to Hezbollah that their efforts to manufacture rockets inside Lebanon would plunge the region into war. There is not much more Israel can do yet still the leadership of Hezballah insists on continuing to upgrade their rockets into guided missiles coming ever closer to that number where Israel chooses to act. The resultant war would also be devastating for Lebanon and would almost wipe everything south of the Litani River with the length and breadth of the Bekaa Valley as well as much of Beirut where this work is being conducted. One item which is often overlooked is that Israel also has rockets and numerous guided missiles with which to strike at targets including those buried deep underground. This little fact is also of supreme importance to one individual and any in his bunker with him, dear Nasrallah, we know where you are hiding and even when you change locations, so; you better look out, you better not shout, no threats to Israel you spout and running all about, for the IDF is coming for you.

 

This threat of war can be dismantled and not intentionally made worse and worse until Israel absolutely must strike as leaving such a number of guided missiles ready to strike at the heart of the nation killing untold numbers due to the increased accuracy. Should these guided missiles be utilized on central Tel Aviv striking many of the towers, bringing any of them down would result in a massive loss of life. Such would be an Israeli 9/11, something nobody outside of the Arab and Muslim worlds desire seeing. There would be candy handed out in the streets of Gaza and around the Middle East in celebration of the death of so many Israelis as any who happened to be Israeli Arabs, well, that is what you get for working alongside Jews. These forces including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, IRGC, Quds Force, Palestinian Authority, PLO, the leadership of Iran and others around the Middle East and North Africa, all fight for and pray for and hope for the eventual taking back of the land where Israel currently stands. These forces love this land so much they are willing to burn it to the ground and leaving it a slag heap of radioactive debris which would leave it uninhabitable for the next few decades if not centuries. That is how much they love the land, but it goes with their mantra which states that they love death as Israelis love life, and that is why they will defeat Israel. Their accusation is absolutely correct except that they will not win, as life is stronger simply because it is based on love and light and not on hate and darkness as their culture of death has become. Israel desires to build, invent, plant, nurture and make advances which will benefit all of humankind while they desire to kill, destroy and tear down and then cannot figure out why they are incapable of advancement. Life, light and love must win out here in Israel otherwise the world is at risk of falling into a prolonged dark age which will take science and industry back about a thousand years and leave much of what has been built fallen to the ground in twisted ruins. That is the future we must, as the human race, choose between, light, love and life or darkness, hate and death. We choose life. We give love. We spread light to chase away the darkness. Remember that a single candle with its tiny flame can illuminate an entire room chasing out its darkness even from the corners.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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