Beyond the Cusp

February 18, 2018

Coming Wars from Iran

 

Where the coming war actually began is rather difficult to pin down. Was it the recent drone incursion into Israel? Probably not. Was it any of the missiles launched from Yemen at Riyadh? Also unlikely. Was it the Second Lebanon War started by Hezballah to cover actions in Syria both at the behest of Iran? Again, it was probably not. Was it the war Hamas fomented through launching a near uncountable number of rockets daily onto civilian targets covering half of Israel? Once again, this was not it. The start of the war coming from Iran did not begin or even originate in Tehran or anywhere else in Iran, it began just over six-thousand-three-hundred miles away in Washington D.C. The coming wars from Iran plus the current wars from Iran, namely Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen as well as Saudi Arabia, Israel and the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council all started with the foreign policy of President Jimmy Carter who ousted the Shah who was, be it ever so slowly, moving Iran towards a democracy, and implanting the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a religious man and thus incapable of having warlike intentions and obviously a peaceful man, as assessed by President Carter.

 

Even this grievous error in judgment, which placed the Iranian people into a totalitarian regime which has enslaved the people to the religious whims of their Supreme Leaders, originally Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini followed by the current Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. They have imposed a strict Shiite Islamic rule where the vast majority of the wealth is spent on weaponry and the comfort of the leading Ayatollahs and their selected henchmen who are tasked with giving the appearance of a democracy. Iran is a democracy if a democracy is defined as free elections where one may vote for any of the preapproved candidates chosen by the Guardian Council, an appointed and constitutionally mandated 12-member council that wields considerable power and influence in the Islamic Republic of Iran. No matter how many political parties pretend to have a say in who is elected to office, the only party that matters is the Grand Council and those candidates they approve. The Iranian Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader official name is Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution. This Islamic Revolution refers to their designs to bring Shia Islam to all of the Muslim World replacing Sunni Islam as the predominant variety of Islam. After taking control of the Islamic world they have not completed their revolution as they intend to fulfill the Quranic command to conquer the world spreading Islam to every corner making it the sole religion, and in the case of the Grand Ayatollah, that would have to be Shia Islam. This is the sole aim of the Iranian regimes and is not conditional on the person who is the Supreme Leader as it is conditional part of their being the Supreme Leader.

 

Grand Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei

Grand Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei

 

The error in judgment by President Carter was probably survivable as Iranian oil production was waning as infrastructure fell from disrepair and lack of investment as the Iranian leadership was more interested in building their military and supporting terrorism throughout the Middle East and beyond. They all but established Hezballah, support Islamic Jihad and oft times Hamas as well as establishing a base for training and launching attacks on the Americas located in the South American Continent in an area called the Tri-Borders Region located where the three nations of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil border. Iran used this location from which to launch the two deadly raids on Jewish sites in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The first attack came on March 17, 1992, on the Israeli Embassy murdering twenty-nine individuals, four Israeli civilians and twenty-five Argentine civilian workers plus one terrorist suicide bomber along with injuring two-hundred-forty-two civilians. Islamic Jihad Organization claimed responsibility for the attack while Hezbollah operative Imad Mugniyah was charged by Argentina with participating in the bombing of the Israeli embassy. Then, a little over two years later, on July 18, 1994, Iranian operatives bombed the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) where eighty-five innocents were murdered with another three-hundred-plus were injured. The attack was suspected to have Hezbollah and Iran involvement as Ansar Allah, a Hezbollah front, claimed responsibility for the bombing. Argentina has attempted to no avail to gain extradition of several Iranian officials they have evidence participated in the planning and execution of these attacks.

 

Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina Building Bombing Aftermath

Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina Building Bombing Aftermath

 

Iran is currently behind a number of wars and internal struggles. These include conflicts concerning Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon with additional attacks having been launched against Saudi Arabia, Israel and Afghanistan while also training revolutionaries in Bahrain and finally the issue of “Export of Revolution,” defined in both the Iranian constitution and the founding statute of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as an essential part of the Islamic Republic. This is the concept that the Islamic Revolution of Iran, which was the name given the return of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, which demands that their eventual aim is the conquest of the entirety of Earth and the spread of Shia Islam to every person residing therein. It is the central concept of the Iranian government and the promise made by the Supreme Leader to “Export the Revolution” which guarantees that Iran will spread their influence. The Iranians are not foolish or lacking in planning as they use proxies and foreign leaders in their Exportation the Revolution to the far reaches as witnessed in Buenos Aires with the attacks on the Israeli Embassy and on the AMIA building. The Iranians are the financiers, military trainers and backers as well as a logistical resource of the largest and most expansive terrorist group on the planet, Hezballah. Most people think of Hezballah and immediately think Lebanon and attacks on Israel but Hezballah also is an active participant in the Syrian and Yemenis civil wars as well as the main force behind the Tri-Border Region and any operations planned and originating from that terror base. Their potential for spreading terrorism to any point on the globe is something that Iran has envisioned for some time, and through Hezballah, they have established this ability and the proof has been that there are a number of terrorist attacks that have been traced potentially to Hezballah but have yet to be proven.

 

Iran has consistently stated their desires to destroy Israel and to gain control over the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran is suspected of having orchestrated the recent broadcasts by Qatar calling for the internationalization of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina taking them from Saudi control placing them under control of a board of the several Islamic nations to include, of course, Iran. Saudi Arabian spokespeople from the government expressed that the Qatari broadcasts were the equivalent to a declaration of war and demanded that such calls cease immediately. Qatari officials declared they never made such a demand and that the government was not responsible for the broadcasts, as they do not control al Jazeera. Of course, nobody in Saudi Arabia believes the Qatari denials and neither does anybody with even the slightest knowledge of Qatar, al Jazeera, Iran and the Middle East. The reality is that Iran is escalating the level of threats on both Saudi Arabia with the broadcasts calling for the internationalizing of Mecca and Medina and with Israel with the launching of an advanced drone into Israeli territory this past week. Iran is behind much of the violence in the Middle East along with those who are taking advantage of the chaos such as Turkey who has begun a war with the Kurdish regions in northern Syria. Iran’s apparent intents currently are to push Saudi Arabia into moving against Qatar over the al Jazeera provocative broadcasts after which it would not surprise us if the Iranian response would be their own assault on Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates from which they could then assist Qatar without the need for an amphibious assault against Saudi Arabian forces who would already be in Qatar.

 

Their other target is Israel who they are hoping they can continue to provoke responses which Iran will use the European Union and United Nations as well as other European nations to proclaim Israel the aggressor. It would not be beyond reason to fear Iran pressing Hamas to initiate another conflict with Israel by once again launching rockets starting with a few smaller rockets per week escalating eventually to closing in on one-hundred missiles and rockets over most of Israel every day. The international media will all but ignore the escalation as once they run one article covering a single launch of even a half dozen launches with limited range, they will see no reason to mention the ever increasing numbers or the increasing range as they will claim it is all more of the same which they had covered. They will claim that it is not news unless something drastic occurs, say an Israeli response. Then the world media will cover the Israeli response making it appear as if Israel is overreacting to a few rockets and only five or six paragraphs into any coverage will the actual number of missiles are being fired into Israel and the fact that as far north as Haifa as well as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and everything inbetween has rockets raining upon them. Once Israel responds and beginning on the second day the new story will be the number of people dead on the two sides and how so few have been killed in Israel, while more are dead in Gaza. We have all seen this fiasco during the last Gaza war and the reasons will be the same this time, Hamas does everything to maximize civilian deaths on their own side while Israel has invested millions to make their population as safe as possible. But why should reality get in the way of demonizing Israel and making it appear that the Jews are evil and unworthy people who are hypocrites in claiming they want peace. The European media and much of their leadership and people take great pleasure in making Israel and Jews appear in as bad a light as possible as it makes them get that feeling of superiority they crave. This is one of the more nefarious forms of anti-Semitism with which we are all too familiar.

 

Iran will continue their provocations through drones, Hamas, Hezballah and possibly even Syrian launched missiles. They will continue to taunt Saudi Arabia hoping to provoke a military response. We will eventually see Iranian offensive attempting to get Jordan involved in a conflict probably using Hezballah or Syria and possibly both. Their intent with Jordan is to gain a greater front against Saudi Arabia by forcing either Syrian conquest of Jordan or Hezballah installing an Iranian puppet government after overthrowing the King possibly using the Palestinian people. Iran has been attempting to gain inroads on the Palestinian Authority (PA) through which they could also gain a path reaching the Arab population in Jordan. Should Iran ever get control of the PA they would probably wait for Mahmoud Abbas to be replaced either through a coup or through waiting for his passing as he is over eighty years old and his health is questionable. This or the ever present possibility of Hamas taking over the PA as they did in Gaza which would also bring the currently PA controlled regions within Iranian influence. Should Iran ever take control of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina one could expect them, in time, requiring that those making the Hajj adopt Shiism hoping to find a more peaceable means of replacing Sunni Islam with Shiite Islam. Do not think that Iran does not have designs further afield as Iran would take aim on Europe through financing terrorist groups using Hezballah and the IRGC to make inroads through offering weapons, training, explosives and financial support. Iran has grand and extreme designs for the future of the world under their oversight and eventual control. With the nuclear breakthrough likely in the near future, if they have not already established themselves clandestinely as a nuclear power, it is only a matter of time before the world witnesses their first attack of nuclear terrorism. We can only hope it will not take such a horrific wake-up call before the world realizes the potential violence under design by Iran for our futures.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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February 16, 2018

Sovereignty Over the Shomron

 

Recently we wrote about the postponement again of the Sovereignty Bill where Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed the postponement was due to the need to work with the Administration of President Trump. Well, it turns out that President Trump and his administration does not know about any such need to work with Netanyahu. Perhaps we should be understanding as Prime Minister Netanyahu has so many troubles at the moment that he gets confused about with whom he has discussed what and when or how. The Israeli police have finally completed their multi-year investigations, the latest of their investigations, and have advised that charges be filed against Prime Minister Netanyahu. This has become an event every couple of years where the police recommend charges be brought and when all is said and done more was said than done as the Attorney General and his prosecutors end up giving the police a pat on the head and told they made a great effort but what they found not only does not rise to the need for any accusations, they really should have relied upon a far less partial main witness. One has to wonder what they were thinking when they needed to find some evidence which was worthy of calling for accusations that they turned to the one man who most desires to replace Netanyahu himself, Yair Lapid. For those who don’t know Yair Lapid, he is the most recent replacement for Tzipi Livni as largest desire with the least chance of ever becoming Prime Minister. His self-serving use of the party he founded, Yesh Atid, is merely the necessary invention which will permit him to make claims on being the next greatest savior who can finally make peace and having the intelligence which was evidenced by his astute ability to actually read the teleprompter on the news every night. His entire claim to fame is his being a newscaster who almost never mispronounced a single syllable. The real problem with Mr. Lapid’s plans is he is stuck in the two state solution and believes that leaving the communities beyond the Green Line and even sharing Jerusalem would bring peace, a folly if nothing else.

 

The problem with the solutions of the past is their logic was from the past and belongs to the past. Realities have changes and the weaponry of the terrorists have changed. The previous weapons were handguns, assault rifles, suicide bombs and weapons which could be applied directly to an area. The current weapon of choice still includes all the old weapons plus rockets, missiles, mortars and artillery. This has altered every reality concerning ceding lands to the Arabs as now they have weapons which have vastly increased their range and lethality. Granting the Arabs in the Shomron complete autonomy would open the central regions of Israel and soon after the entirety from the northernmost points to Eilat at the southern tip to rockets and artillery and other lethal weaponry. As everything has changed and progressed, Israel will be required for the safety of her people to retain sovereignty over the entirety of the Shomron if the country is to remain secure. The changed factors makes retaining the Shomron so critical that it matters not if the Europeans, the United Nations, the United States, the Russian or anybody anywhere on the planet might object, Israel must retain all the lands west of the Jordan River, period. Anyone and everyone who wishes to demand otherwise must be ignored and if they should become overly loud, then they will require straight truth about reality and be silenced or ignored, no other option should be considered. International Law, Treaties, the Mandate and every legal document grants Israel total and complete authority and rule over these lands and that is what must be impressed on everyone opposing the Israeli claims. That is the simple reality of the modern situation in the Middle East.

 

Looking at the area, we find wars in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and including Turkey and Afghanistan and even Pakistan. Currently, except for the provocations from Hamas, Hezballah and Iran, Israel is one of the sole places where peace exists. Israel is one of the most stable governances in the entire Middle East where there is a democracy, another uniqueness, where the people are represented in the government. Allowing the Arabs another state would simply create another unstable area which would initially be a dictatorship with Mahmoud Abbas at its head. The problem is as soon as the IDF would be required to retreat from the area; Abbas would initially be overthrown by members of the Palestinian Authority which would in turn be overthrown by Hamas under the direction and with assistance from Iran. This would grant Iran a launching-off point on the western shores of the Jordan River and on the heights overlooking Tel Aviv and the central region of Israel. Without the Shomron, Israel is a mere nine miles wide at its center thus the Shomron is absolutely necessary for Israel to be capable of self-defense. The Shomron (West Bank on the image below) is absolutely required if Israel is to survive if for no other reason than weapons and tactics of war have been irrevocably altered since 1967 when Jordan held the area and declared war along with Egypt and Syria in the Six Day War. The United Nations demanded that Israel return lands, not all lands, and by returning the Sinai Peninsula and giving up all claims to Gaza, Israel has returned lands and fulfilled any and all requirements placed upon her.

 

Nine Mile Wide Israeli Waist

Nine Mile Wide Israeli Waist

 

Israel faces other challenges well beyond the Jordan River. There is Iran which has promised to destroy the Zionist Entity, and Turkey which despite having official relations still acts more as an enemy than a reliable partner in peace. Additionally, Israel faces Hamas in Gaza, Iran in Syria, Hezballah in Syria and Lebanon and much if not most of Europe and the United Nations all working to destroy the singular Jewish State. What many do not realize is that Israel is the single entity standing between chaos and an invasion of Europe by the hungry forces of Islam which include Turkey, Iran, Hezballah and near countless terrorist groups. The Europeans should realize from the recent increases in terrorism, many which imitate things which have been perpetrated against Israel in the past, that without the plug in the well-shaken bottle which is Israel the violence in the Middle East would explode across Europe pouring into the streets and across city after city. Europe is probably rightfully frightened by what it has witnessed closer to their borders than such violence has been in ages and take their frustrations and trepidations out on the only target which actually might care, Israel. The Europeans know if they were to launch the kind of accusations they throw at Israel at Iran, Syria, Lebanon or others that they would be inviting waves of terrorism to flow across their borders, so out of frustration they target Israel as Israel is not about to take anything out on them. The truth is the land is rightfully Israeli and the Palestinian Arabs were invented in 1964 by Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas and much assistance of the KGB. We had a recent article with a video halfway down the page where a member of Hamas, in a pique of anger with Egypt, lets loose a barrage revealing the falsity of the Arab narrative against Israel identifying the vast majority of the Arabs as Egyptians, Saudis, Syrians, Iraqis and other Arab and Muslim nations and not native to the area. The reality is that for most of its three-thousand-year history, Jerusalem has had a Jewish majority. No other nation has ever held Jerusalem as its capital city and only the Jews have had an actual freestanding state on the lands west of the Jordan River in the entire history since King David. Israel needs and must retain these lands, as they are all part of her ancestral homeland and have always been vital to her defense.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 15, 2018

The Potential for Al Jazeera Starting the next Middle East War

 

Qatar has opened a gashing wound upon the Saudi Royal Family and their claims to be the “Servant of the Holy Places” of Mecca and Medina. Using their weaponized radio and television channels broadcasting as al Jazeera they have called for the internationalizing of the Islamic Holy Cities. Such an eventuality would rob the Saudi Royal Family of their claim which justifies their ability to rule Saudi Arabia and could even foment a civil war within Saudi Arabia. The reasoning behind this call being made by al Jazeera may not even be originating from Qatar but instead from Tehran, Iran and the Mullahs. This might even be a ploy originating in Ankara, Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has visions of reestablishing the Ottoman rule over Mecca and Medina. Wherever the idea for these broadcasts, the one thing which is obvious is, it has heightened already drawn tight tensions with Iran, Qatar and Turkey on one side and Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt on the other. As if things were not bad enough, with the recent drone incursion into Israeli airspace by what was an Iranian flown remote aircraft intercepted by Israel, led to the Israeli airstrike in Syria on Syrian and Iranian command and control centers used for such operations. Add in the recently started new front in Syria with Turkey bringing a war against the Kurds in northern Syria and a likely land grab by Turkey whose President Erdoğan has made speeches claiming that Aleppo historically was a Turkish city. This is also part of President Erdoğan’s delusional belief that it is his destiny to reestablish the Ottoman Empire. He has also made claims on Kirkuk and Mosul which are Kurdish areas of Iraq. One thing which is clear is the Turkish President has strong hatreds with the Kurds both within Turkey and elsewhere.

 

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubayr warned Qatar that clearly previously such a call for internationalizing the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina would be interpreted by Saudi Arabia as a declaration of war which he further stated, “Do not test the patience of the great powers, you dwarves.” This was an obvious attempt at intimidation which Qatar has apparently disregarded. Qatar has some insurance against any Saudi aggressions as there are troops sent by Turkey within the nation plus Iran has promised to aid Qatari interests from any Saudi or other outside actions. With tensions at such a heightened level and the above-mentioned nations restating their mutual support on each side and enmity for the others, it would take one wrong step, one misspoken word at an overly sensitive moment or even a misreading of intentions to tip over the first domino leading to the entire stack falling in rapid succession. These tensions and the recent fighting between the disparate parties in Syria, the interventions of Iran across the Middle East including Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon and possibly beyond including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist entities have proven President Trump correct in his assessment that Israel-Arab conflict is not the central problem.

 

President Trump has realized the reality that the Arab Palestinians are not the central focus of the Muslim world but an all but forgotten backwater which nobody desires to take too much interest just in case they might be stuck with having to come to their aid. The Arab Palestinians are simply an unwanted group of malcontents whose leadership had worn out their welcome across the Arab world. When the Syrian civil war first started, one of the first places bombed and struck with artillery barrages were the Palestinian refugee camps with the largest being barrel bombed for almost two weeks solid. These were the first victims of Bashir al Assad’s wrath. It may have been that President Trump noted how even the self-declared greatest friends of the Arab Palestinians, the European Union, European nations and leftist NGO’s were all silent and never registered even the slightest of concerns over Bashir al-Assad’s wiping out of the Palestinian refugee camps. Between such lack of real concern for the Arab Palestinians whose troubles could not be placed on Israel and Mahmoud Abbas consistently refusing every offer to talk or reach a peace under any condition has led President Trump to demand actual effort and signs of real sincerity before he will waste any further funding of UNRWA or the Palestinian Authority. President Trump appears to have one main objective in the Middle East, to keep the United States as untangled in the entire area as humanly possible. We should all hope that nothing changes this and forces President Trump to decide it is necessary for the United States to engage in the Middle East as such would only occur if things became excessively dire.

 

Iranian Allies versus Saudi Allies and pro-Saudi but Neutral

Iranian Allies versus Saudi Allies and pro-Saudi but Neutral

 

The unfortunate thing is should a war break out starting between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and quickly spread to having Iran step into the breach and also attack Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates as well as Saudi Arabia to force the Saudis to defend on the greatest number of fronts and also have the possibility of Turkey sending troops and air power to assist Iran as Turkey has returned to allying with Iran after a brief period of neutrality while seeking United States military aid which was provided. What is most disturbing is that Turkey continues to be a NATO member which makes possible numerous troubling demands which could be made of NATO should Turkey be dragged into a conflict against Saudi Arabia and aiding Iran. That raises the question as to what the United States do if called upon to honor the call of another NATO member for aid in a war they were presumably dragged into which would place the United States aiding Iran against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and their other allies which President Trump has decided are the United States true friends within the Islamic World. Perhaps President Trump’s belief that the Middle East is best left at arms distance or further may be the smartest means of dealing with most of the mess developing within. President Putin has been attempting to extract Russia while not losing face or disturbing his allies who are becoming more burdensome than they will likely prove to be worth. In the meantime, Putin had best find some way of putting a tight lid on the building pressure between Qatar and Saudi Arabia probably by insisting that Iran calm their attack dog and end the al Jazeera attacks on the Saudi Royals and end the calls for the internationalization of Mecca and Medina before the pressure boiler explodes from the pressure and open violence breaks out.

 

The causing of a new front in the Iranian war on the rest of the Islamic Arab world in their quest to spread Shiism making it supreme over Sunni Islam by whatever means required has only increased the regions where Iran can now threaten. If Iran truly desires to make Shiism preeminent and dominating the Middle East, picking a war with Saudi Arabia and Egypt would be the most direct method, perhaps not the smartest, but it would be the most direct. Saudi Arabia holds the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina and Egypt has the largest populations as well as the leading Islamic university, Al-Azhar University in Cairo. Taking control of these assets and swaying this many Arab Muslims would go a long way in having Shiism become dominant in the Middle East and make spreading it throughout the Islamic world far more readily possible. It might simply all depend on exactly how far along the Iranian work to develop and build a nuclear arsenal has come along. If it is much further along than believed by Washington D.C. and Jerusalem, then this task just became far more likely and the Iranian threat beyond just the Middle East just became exponentially more dangerous. This is another reason for the Russians to try to calm the situation because the last thing everybody needs is a war which could easily escalate completely beyond any efforts to control, and an Iran possibly facing losing a conflict with Egypt and Saudi Arabia might become capable of anything to try to alter such an eventuality. The one way Iran could lash out would be an all out attack upon Israel, and the last thing the world would need is an attack on Jerusalem and/or Tel Aviv with weapons of mass destruction, as the Israeli retaliation would be definitive and devastating. Perhaps Qatar had best be advised to calm down their rhetoric as otherwise things stepping beyond anybody’s ability to calm could be right around the corner, and if such is pressed, then it should be understood that Iran desired an open conflict and should receive all the responsibility for what follows equally with whoever fires the first shot.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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