Beyond the Cusp

October 18, 2017

If the World Was Serious About Preventing an Iran War

 

The actions over the past few weeks have once again shown the lack of any shred of serious concern over preventing Iran taking control of the Middle East and the oil resources held there. Say what you want about how Saudi Arabia can stand against Iran, that is a pipe dream and everybody knows that. The only hope the Saudi military would have against Iran would be if they held a parade contest and even then, Iran puts on a pretty good imitation of the old Soviet Union style of parade, the Saudis just look impressive in their fancy dress uniforms. The Saudis even with Israel assistance would still end up losing the oil fields as the Israeli sphere of operability has limitations which is why Israel is considered vulnerable to Iranian nuclear threats. Obviously, many of the signs that the world really was, the United States in particularly, interested in preventing a world war started due to Iranian threats well beyond simply the Middle East would be done secretively, there are still some steps which would necessarily be committed in plain sight. The first would be some passive verbal support for the response of the Kurdish referendum praising their desire to be granted the nation they had been promised by the allied victors of World War I.

 

Please do understand that much of the problems in the Middle East stem directly from the results imposed after World War I and much of that blame lies with two men whose names are on the very treaty behind these problems, the Sykes-Picot Agreement. British diplomat Mark Sykes and a French counterpart, François Georges-Picot, with some small input and suggestions from Russia and the complete hands-off support of the United States trying to stay above the fray which adds their name to the perfidy, drew the lines of control for much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) dividing the lands into areas of control with no regard for tribal and ethnic regions. This action was intentional as they were attempting to assure themselves that the Middle East would never become a major power in the world. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the three places which were not affected as they remained as they were or were beyond the scope of the Allied powers. The Allies performed a similar arrangement when dividing up the Austria-Hungarian Empire just as they did the Ottoman Empire. The British and French went a step or two further by making the chance for an opportunity for the Jews and the Kurds to gain independence and have the nation that each was promised all but impossible, and undefendable if either managed to gain their necessary foothold. To restrict the Jews, this was accomplished by having the British all but strangle their ability to make Aliya to the Holy Lands; and to the Kurds, they divided their populations between Iraq, Syria and Turkey leaving a fourth in Iran. If these areas had been permitted the Kurdish People, there is a good chance that Kurdistan would have a democratic form of governance and would be providing a perfect staging area for much of the problems over the past century in the Middle East. They also would likely have been an inspiration to the peoples of their neighboring nations to pursue a more liberal and democratic path after World War II, but that would have empowered the Middle East; and the British and French were seeking anything but such an occurrence.

 

Still, it is not yet too late to mend long ago made mistakes and grant things promised in bad faith. If only the advisors from the United States State Department were not infected with an anti-democratic bend and steeped in the sour soil of Arab oil and Islamic supremacy. The State Department is neutral as it cares not which form of Islam, Shiite or Sunni, wins, just as long as there is an Islamic Arab force with which to try and impose their view of a just world. Their current favors bow to Iran thanks to the previous eight years of having their positions sold to the Iranians first. Still, there is the beating of a Saudi Arabian old heart and a soft spot for Egypt and the Palestinians and a culture steeped on anti-Israelism, anti-Zionism and thus anti-Semitism. For the Department of State, the only good Jew is one completely devoted to the State, the Democrat Party and completely ignorant in the Constitution, Bill of Rights and associated ideals of freedom. The State Department is probably the most anti-Trump area in the entirety of the government and the most intractable as well. Trump gave the job of Secretary of State to an old friend and we hope they have an understanding that as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson is supposed to talk the talk and walk the walk completely in agreement with the garbage spouted by the State Department “deep state” and add his own Saudi Arabian twist as this is expected from one who spent their life being entertained, wined and dined by the Saudi Royals. Secretary Tillerson was likely told not to get upset if it appeared he was being ignored often, his job was to engage the “deep state” people in the State Department and make it appear they had a voice and were being effective while Trump went his own way. That would be the perfect situation of management control and if such is the case; it will be studied in business and political science classes in the future.

 

We have already heard how the State Department wants the Kurds to just shut their mouths, sit down and allow the adults to trample them into the dust of the Middle East. Thus far, the only nation to support the Kurdish referendum was Israel. Israel also has strong and good relations with the Syrian faction of the Kurds. The Kurds were the fighters who stopped ISIS, back when Islamic State was ISIS, in the battle for Kobane where the Kurds had stopped the ISIS advance and were the first to do so and then, with some United States air support, the Kurds turned the tide and then cleared Kobane of ISIS presence and pushed them southward, again with marginal American air support. This was the story in Syria which has one last piece in the puzzle, when the Syrian Kurds turned the tide; they received some assistance from the Iraqi Kurds which quickened their push. Meanwhile, in Iraq, the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias stopped the spread of the Islamic State in two crucial battles in Kirkuk and Erbil turning them back and, in a long and brutal series of assaults; the Kurds opened the route into Mosul and established a foothold in this crucial city. With Peshmerga Kurdish assistance, the Iraqi Army with America air support, tactical planning, artillery support, and America Special Forces implanted within and with an undisclosed number of American troops taking the south flank and the Kurdish Peshmerga taking the north flank, the Iraqi Army, according to all media reports, took Mosul in a valiant effort showing great heroism and resourcefulness in a brutal fight of uncommon ferocity lasting almost three days. The Kurdish Peshmerga Militias then spent the next two weeks clearing the remainder of Mosul in door-to-door fighting mostly in the northern regions. The absolute bravery and valor of the Iraqi Army is most definitely unquestioned, or so the media tells. There was a reason that the State Department and the Pentagon insisted that the Iraqi Army be credited with taking Mosul, and now for the revelation.

 

The crux of the situation is that around Mosul are numerous critical items. There is the Mosul Dam and hydroelectric generation facility. The dam is in need of upgrading and desperately in need of repair which it will hopefully receive before it breaks. This would be best handled by some governance which actually cares about the people. Then there are the Mosul oil fields which produce the second greatest amount of oil in Iraq. Finally, Mosul is a central point where the majority of roads meet and thus makes it the Bastogne of the Iraqi battlefield. In Bastogne, Colonel McAuliffe commanding the 101st Airborne Division was surrounded by German armor who pounded the city for twenty-four hours plus. When offered to surrender and save his troops, the Colonel answered “Nuts!” Nuts is what the United States and the Kurds are if they permit Iran and Iraq to retain control over the Mosul area. This was a Kurdish area which Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attempted to denude it of its Kurdish population and move Sunni Arabs into the former Kurdish homes. The Kurds have permitted their people to return to their homes with their intent on retaining Mosul. The West and the World would sleep a lot sounder with Mosul firmly in Kurdish hands. For this and a myriad of other reasons, the United States would be best served to ignore the State Department and their claim that in the name of peace, Iran, through Iraq, should be permitted their claim on Mosul and the Kurds denied such lands or any lands and be left split between four nations, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey to live under the cruel rule of their oppressors. The State Department gives the Kurdish the same treatment as they have the Jews, believing them both to be merely capricious little children too ignorant or unintelligent to know what is best for them.

 

The reality, as usual, is the complete opposite of the State Department advice. The Kurds could and would be an ally to the forces of freedom, liberty, capitalism and democratic rule. They would also be a friend of Israel, which we admit does cloud our vision, but such a clouded vision is still a far bit clearer than those at the State Department. The next path at present would be to make plans for the recognition of a Greater Kurdistan (map below). That would include northeastern Syria, Northern Iraq reaching southward to include the Mosul areas, northwestern Iran and parts of southern Turkey. In order to make such a nation possible, the United States would need to provide the basic aircraft for the Kurds to have their own airborne protection. The training should be provided by either the United States, Israel or both, for the pilots to fly these aircraft with the most capable given actual air defense dogfighting training. They would need armored vehicles which some might be provided by Israel and the rest by the United States as well as some training in their use and how to defend them against anti-armor weapons and how to implement them into a combat scenario. Finally, imbedding some Special Forces trainers initially plus air assistance as the initial founding of Kurdistan, no matter the promises or treaties involved, will result in a combined assault of the nascent nations by at the least four and as many as twelve Arab, Turkish and Iranian armies attempting to drive them into the ground, there is no sea this time, and murder every single Kurdish person they can find. The reason that all the Kurdish areas must be included in the founding of Kurdistan is because any left outside of the country will be slaughtered by their own countrymen as an example to the Kurds as to what will happen to them if they lose their war to keep their nation. Israel can attest to the fury that will be shown any Kurdish nation once founded, and it matters not when such may occur, the vile spite which will be shown as violence is unfurled against the Kurdish People wherever they may be found, will be equal to the fury thrown against Israel and which still fills many Arab and Islamic hearts towards Israel and the Jews. With American and Israeli assistance, this idea of a real and honest Kurdistan which will be free, democratic in nature, and with a vibrant economy can and will be established. Should Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan become enraged and threaten to quit NATO, that would simply be one more advantage of our proposal, one that should be gladly and immediately accepted.

 

Our Idea for a Proposed Greater Kurdistan

Our Idea for a Proposed Greater Kurdistan

 

Additional advantages of establishing the promised Kurdish nation is it would provide Israel with an emergency airbase which would place some needed cooling on the Iranian eagerness to destroy Israel. The Kurds would necessarily be allied with Israel and the West as the Arab world and Arab League would treat them as a pariah and constantly be a threat to their survival. A Kurdish State would also work to keep a check on Turkey and perhaps the Sunni Muslims in Iraq might seek the Kurdish protection from their Shia dominated government in Iraq, though perhaps protecting the Sunni in Iraq might be a stretch. In the end, a Kurdish nation in the heart of the Middle East with democratic governance and a capitalist economy and the standard of living which such provides, they would be an example of what each of these Arab states could be with a government which serves the people instead of enslaves the people. Kurdistan could be the beginning of the reformation which so many have written about but none have shown any means by which such could occur. Those who have claimed that an effective example would be Israel missed the mark as Israelis are seen as outsiders, intruders and anything but what the Arabs should emulate. The Kurds are Sunni Muslims, not Jews, nor Catholics, not Buddhists but real and longstanding followers of Islam and amongst those who surrendered to Allah and they could show that surrender to Allah and following Islam does not mean one must live off the crumbs doled by a dictator but that one can be modern and enjoy the spoils of life while still being good and practicing Muslims. That might just be the greatest prize which might come from Kurdistan, and that could change the world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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October 17, 2017

The Storm Before the Calm

 

President Trump was quoted to have made mention that we were experiencing the calm before the storm, and at the very point one might say started the storm before the calm. The media went into a feeding frenzy making all forms of predictions of doom, World War III, nuclear Armageddon and the end of all sanity. Some predicted that, finally, President Trump had gone too far and this had to be impeachable material as if a President can be impeached because he said something that some, or many, or even most people found offensive. For all we know, President Trump could have been referring to the calm in the media who had found nothing he had said worthy of impeachment in the last twenty seconds, and now he had so the storm was sure to ensue. That would have been an accurate interpretation, as any, of the media eruption over the statement, “calm before the storm,” words which Trump had spoken. But let us assume that President Trump meant that things were starting to look quite dangerous in the world. Well, can anybody say that such a description of the current state of the world was exactly wrong? There is an upstart young and rather unstable fool firing rockets over the Islands of Japan and across areas of South Korea out into the oceans and seas surrounding these nations while exploding nuclear weapons and having restarted the plutonium producing reactor, making fuel for more such weapons ruling North Korea. There are some rather less than stable religious fanatics very likely making nuclear weapons and testing ever more capable missiles threatening to destroy the Great and Lesser Satans of the United States and Israel and then launch their troops to conquer the world. There is a war still raging in Syria where it appears that a murderous dictator backed by Iranian Mullahs and their IRGC troops and Hezballah terrorists will win the day backed with Russian air support. Libya is still in a state of chaos with intertribal fighting and Iraq is in a state of unrest with Iran and the Iraqi government about to go to war with the Kurds in the north just as Bashir al-Assad also may be fighting the Kurds in his north. As far as fighting Kurds, there is Turkish President Erdoğan, who has been at war with the Kurds of his nation as well; yet the world refuses to allow a state for the Kurds where they would live in peace if only permitted such a privilege.

 

Perhaps President Trump was being too kind referring to the present state of the world as calm. Anybody calling the present state of the world as calm might just be as daft as the media claims. Europe has an economy which has been steady in its inability to show much in the way of life. The new infiltrators and immigrants in much of Europe have brought with them crime and unrest and threats of revolution and jihad with an ending target of the imposition of sharia. China has been spreading tendrils building islands in the South China Sea which will lengthen a main trade route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans or potentially giving China complete control over this trade route while they also tend to solidify their claims over islands also claimed by Japan, Viet Nam or the Philippines. China apparently has decided to try their hand at hegemony themselves and is still spending like there is no tomorrow on their Navy and Air Force. Russia is continuing their agreement with Syrian dictator Assad in exchange for the use of Syria’s Mediterranean Sea Ports while Iran consolidates their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East (see map below). Turkey’s Erdoğan still sees himself as the next leader of the renewed Caliphate. President Sisi in Egypt has made all the right and noble statements of reforming Islam such that they learn to prefer their Mecca verses of coexistence and tolerance over the Medina verses of war and conquest until the entire world submits to Allah but has been dreadfully reticent about taking stronger actions than a speech or two at Al-Azhar University in Cairo while Coptic Christians remain targets for murderous jihad. India and China, the world’s two most populous nations and both nuclear powers are in a standoff over their border as the Chinese are constructing a road into the disputed province. Meanwhile, in Kashmir, India and Pakistan are still standing armed to the teeth and both with nuclear weapons in their standoff over who actually owns what once was an independent nation. While, what we presume, most probably accurately, is a nuclear power, Iran is rushing towards a war potentially with Egypt and more definitely Saudi Arabia, which could get nuclear weapons from Pakistan amongst other places, over who will have control over the Muslim Middle East and be the preeminent power of all Islam. Iran and Israel are in standoff mode as of the reality spoken of above where Iran has promised to wipe Israel from the map while Israel prefers to remain where she stands. And there is the growing threat globally of terrorism.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

Then there is the threat of a civil war in the United States. The media is fanning the flames and leftists worldwide are willing to pay any price to be rid of President Trump. There is presumably a plan for a full-blown nationwide uprising in protest for November 4th hoping that it will grow in proportions until President Trump has little choice but to resign in order to save the nation. Somewhere in this plan, there may be a small problem though we would be hard pressed to point it out. Such a demonstration could be seen as an attempt to overthrow the government which would permit the President using any and all power at his disposal to end the uprising, but other than that, what could go wrong? Meanwhile the media is fanning these flames for all the ratings they are worth even to the point of Jimmy Kimmel crying over spilt milk. What else could go wrong other than perhaps a flu pandemic if they got the flu shot formula wrong?

 

There is a coming water shortage in many places on the planet and despite clean water technologies being available, little is being done to distribute it where needed as the cost would be rather daunting challenge. Funny how people are willing to spend billions to pursue political ends but they find it difficult to spend even thousands to benefit all mankind. There are also threats of famine from crop failures from poor land use and so little is being done to teach the farmers of the world better techniques let alone getting them the equipment necessary to increase yields. Israel is working in Africa and elsewhere with assisting in such efforts but cannot reach everywhere and the United States also has taken up efforts worldwide but they could use others to help more with these efforts than in starting revolutions. There will be weather and other natural disasters which the world will need to give their assistance. And there are so many other areas in which the world could be improved such as providing medical assistance to the world including such things as Saving a Child’s Heart which not only saves children with heart defects from around the world but trains surgeons and sets up hospital departments to treat children around the world. Yes, we thought ending with hope would make more noise than another story over a Trump gaff.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 29, 2017

Kurdistan Will Become the New Israel

 

The speed with which the Kurdish referendum turned the Kurds into the new Jews and the idea of Kurdistan into the idea on November 30, 1947 by the United Nations to allow the Jews to have their state, if they could keep it, was predictable but still impressive. Just as in 1947, the Iraqi, Iranian, Syrian and Turkish leaders all threatening to destroy the Jewish State of Israel, even before its declaration; these same governments have threatened to blockade, invade and starve the Kurdish State even before it has been declared. We already have heard the term “disputed territories” as a reference to the potential Kurdish regions accompanying the threats to the region and the Kurdish People. The Iraqi government in Baghdad has already demanded the Kurds surrender their airports and borders to Baghdad and Turkey has threatened to close the border should the Kurds declare their nationhood. This threat to block all trade made despite the small item that the Turkish government makes a fair amount of profit from the oil pipeline which takes the crude from the Kurdish oil fields to Europe. We predict that should the Kurds succeed in declaring their freedom, the Turkish government will, at the very least, continue permitting the oil to flow and the money as well. That brings us to the next problem, what happens should the Kurds declare their independence from Baghdad.

 

There is one reality which the referendum revealed loudly and clearly, the Kurds will be declaring their independence, the only real question being how soon. Falah Mustafa Bakir, Head of Department of Foreign Relations for Kurdistan Regional Government, has stated he does not regret holding the referendum and has stated he would prefer to have negotiations with Baghdad and not start a confrontation. Bakir told Foreign Policy, “There is always the carrot and the stick. But they (Baghdad) have forgotten about the carrot. They know only the stick.” There is a lot that the Kurds could learn by simply looking to history, almost any history involving the Arabs and other people and remember two very important facts, that the Turkmen and the Iranians have been Arabized and share the Arab psyche when it comes to war or anything which opposes them. They both, along with the Arabs, all believe in Caliphate and the supremacy of their efforts in war and destiny as foretold in the Quran and thusly promised by Allah that all their lands will forever remain theirs and efforts to reclaim stolen lands are blessed and guaranteed. This is the reason they now believe they are about to go beyond the cusp and conquer all of Europe and will never end their war to destroy all of the Jewish State, Israel, and would never end efforts to destroy the Kurdish State once they should declare their independence. The Kurdish saving grace is their Peshmerga Militia just as the saving grace for Israel at the founding of the Jewish State was the disparate fighters who resisted British rule and became the initial Israeli Defense Force (IDF).

 

The Kurds have made the first mistake in delaying declaring their independence. The longer they postpone their declaration, the lower their opportunities will become, as their lands will be taken over piece by piece by Arabs settling. They will relocate Kurdish villages and replace them with Arab inhabitants one after the other bringing in more Arabs from every Arab nation, from Iraq, from Egypt, from Syria until there is no distinct Kurdish region in Iraq and that will end any opportunity for Kurdish independence. What the Arabs will do to the Kurdish region will be exactly what Saddam Hussein did to the Kurds from Kirkuk and Mosul. This is the reality the Kurdish people will face if they refuse to act definitively and immediately. Their only hope is their community and that is what will be destroyed while they talk, and the Arabs will talk and talk as they destroy the Kurdish People just as the Palestinian Arabs, a construct who are actually simply Arabs from Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and various other Arab nations, will never give up until the State of Israel is destroyed and the Jewish People are destroyed, made to live a slavish life under the thumb of the Arabs who consider themselves superior to all others. The Kurdish People have two hopes, declaring Kurdistan now and forever and the Peshmerga Militias which proved worthy enough to bring ISIS spreading across the lands to an end and then push them back and open the gates to Mosul aiding in their defeat there. The Kurdish People believe in their Kurdistan and need to actually do exactly what the Arabs, Iranian and Turks fear most, declare the Greater Kurdistan for all the Kurdish People. Below is our idea for a proposed Kurdistan which simply takes parts of Syria and Iraq leaving Turkey alone with its current borders.

 

Our Idea for a Proposed Kurdistan

Our Idea for a Proposed Kurdistan

 

The Kurds of Syria need to request to join their fellow Kurds and can do so by holding their own independence referendum as soon as they can arrange such. They then formally request to join their lands with the Kurdish regions of Iraq and promise to accept whatever style of government the Iraqi Kurds propose surrendering their ideas of a socialist state under a strong leader who would inevitably become a dictator which has proven time and again around the world to lead to disaster, just as President Trump stated loudly at the United Nations in his General Assembly speech where he stated,

”The problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented, but that socialism has been faithfully implemented. From the Soviet Union to Cuba to Venezuela, wherever true socialism or communism has been adopted, it has delivered anguish and devastation and failure. Those who preach the tenets of these discredited ideologies only contribute to the continued suffering of the people who live under these cruel systems.”

The entire of the Kurdish People must be one which means permitting the Kurds of Turkey who desire to live under the rule of their own people and government to be permitted to immigrate to the new lands of Kurdistan. This would end the separative movements within Turkey as the Kurds desiring not to live under Erdogan and Turkish rule would have an option and Turkey would benefit in no longer having a restive and resisting people within their borders. The Kurds would benefit by having their own lands and rule. The Middle East would gain as an entire people would now no longer reside under the false borders imposed by the Europeans, namely the French and British who imposed the Sykes-Picot Treaty in order to make the Middle East unable to be ruled by any governance other than an oppressive rule. The establishing of Kurdistan could be the first step in a complete redrawing of the Middle East according to tribal and religious alliances making for more opportunity for harmony and potentially an economic revival and a brighter future for all in the Middle East and perhaps beyond. A Kurdistan could be the first step to redrawing the lines ending decades of stagnation and oppression. The leadership will oppose any change, as that would end their power. Either eventually the separate tribal and religious factions will gain their independence or there will be eternal struggles and warfare leaving the entirety of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) economically backwards, politically backwards, and societally disrupted with continued oppressions and constant upheaval and revolts.

 

Map of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

Map of the Sykes-Picot Agreement.
Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

 

The current examples of what the Sykes-Picot Agreement has wrought are Syria and Iraq. Syria has all but dissolved and will likely and unfortunately be returned largely to the rule of Bashir al-Assad thanks largely to Iran and an assist from Russian air-power. Iraq is also a partially dissolved state reliant upon Iran if it is to restore rule from Baghdad. The establishing of the nation of Kurdistan would free parts of both Syria and Iraq from oppressive rulers. Perhaps it might lead to dividing Iraq and Syria into their differing sectors by Shia and Sunni establishing nations who share religious beliefs and values. Of course, such a plan would only work providing the Sunni and Shia could decide to let go of their centuries old enmity. Whatever the future of the Middle East, if the Kurds desire to remain a people and preserve their culture, their only hope is to form a single nation incorporating the majority of their people residing in the immediate region and defending their lands with such vigor as to make all wary of engaging them in the future. The sad thing is it will more than likely require them defending their nations, once declared, from an immediate attack, if history is any lesson. The sooner they start, the better the outlook as time will result in a weakening of their position just as the not allowing Israel to be established immediately after the San Remo Conference and Treaty of Sèvres instead of waiting a quarter century allowing hundreds of thousands of Arabs to be settled within the borders set aside for the Jewish State. The Kurds must avoid permitting tens or hundreds of thousands of Arab to be implanted within what they desire as borders or they will face the same kind of terror warfare Israel has faced from even before her founding and right up to the latest attacks which came immediately after Mahmoud Abbas publically called for Days of Rage.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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