Beyond the Cusp

September 13, 2017

Is Hamas Being Merged with Hezballah?

 

According to the Head of the Shin Bet Security Service Nadav Argaman, the Gaza based terrorist group Hamas has been deepening its ties with Hezballah in Lebanon and thus becoming closer to Iran and the Shiite efforts to destroy Israel, the United States and the Western World. This is in line with recent developments in Iraq where Iran has been taking the officers and ranking core Islamic State fighters and converting most into Shia Islam while also building Sunni units to use as enforcers against what they view as renegade Shiite groups such as those who follow Muqtada al-Sadr as we reported in our recent post, “Sacrificing Kurds Along with Iraq to Iran.” We will ignore any possibility that Iran might use Hamas to free up more Hezballah forces to be used in Syria, as Syria will be placed once again under the oppressive fist of Bashir al-Assad no matter how long that takes. This is another reason to permit the Kurds to establish their own homelands of Kurdistan across both Iraq and formerly Syria lands in the northern regions. This would provide the world with a place more dependable than Turkey from which to slow the Iranian dreams of spreading into Turkey and on to Greece as the Persians had done over two thousand years ago. The Iranian Ayatollahs have repeatedly spoken of their destiny of reestablishing the Persian Empire and how, as their descendants, their destiny is world conquest. There is that pesky little concept that the Western World gave up on when they renounced colonialism and that will continue to come back to bite them.

 

Whatever the reason for Hamas spreading into Lebanon, it will also not prove favorable for Israel. Iran took a large percentage of the monies, the over one billion dollars and almost immediately resumed their support of Hamas while increasing their aid and support for Hezballah, Bashir al-Assad, the Houthis and started rebuilding their military including the IRGC. Iran has also began consolidating their position in Iraq and with support from the United States and the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias, the Iraqi military has defeated the Islamic State in Mosul and are now using IRGC along with the Iraqi forces to clear the remaining Islamic State holdouts. In less than two weeks, the Kurds will be taking a vote on whether or not to declare their independence from Iraq. Their vote intends to include the Kurdish population in Mosul and to include Mosul within their establishing of Kurdistan. The Iranians are claiming Mosul for Iraq, or at least Iraq is claiming all of what would become Kurdistan as Iraq and will, of course, be under the direct management by the Iranian Ayatollahs. The Kurdish hopes for their homeland, which was promised by the British during World War I, only to have the rug pulled out from under them when oil was discovered in the Mosul area. Now the Kurdish dream may depend on the United Nations and the world giving them the recognition they deserve. The United States State Department official position opposes the Kurdish liberation policy and have called on President Trump to refuse to back their vote should they, as expected, vote for independence. It may end up that the Kurds will need to fight to gain their independence, which will pit them against Iraq, Iran, the IRGC as well as Turkey. Their only hope will be the active support of the United States, something unfortunately unlikely as things now appear.

 

Meanwhile, the future for Lebanon as an actual nation is all but finished as with Hamas now being trained and stationed within their country and already being all but governed by Hezballah, their next elections, if they even have any, will almost certainly remove any semblance of Christian influence and the terrorists will have gained complete control. It would not be out of the question to see the Constitution of Lebanon rewritten so as to remove any requirement that Christians be represented, protected or anything other than Dhimmi as Lebanon will have been completely Islmisized. Additionally, Iran placing Hamas into Lebanon bodes poorly for the future wars against Israel being single front wars. Israel had been fortunate that they have never been forced to face Hezballah in Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza simultaneously. Iran moving some Hamas forces into Lebanon implies that Iran plans on forcing Israel to face a two front war when they next are attacked by terrorist forces with Hamas attacking from Lebanon as well as Gaza plus Hezballah attacking alongside Hamas in Lebanon and from the Golan Heights plus a potential of IRGC forces assisting the terror armies. There is little need to make this a long article but suffer us one last paragraph speculating on possible futures and one hope.

 

Coordinated Iranian Attack on Israel Including Potential Attacks from Jordan

Coordinated Iranian Attack on Israel Including Potential Attacks from Jordan

 

The hope is that President Trump will respond to the pressures from the State Department with stiff waving off of their advice and recognizes the independence of Kurdistan should that be the result of the vote, and all indications are that independence will win by close to three to one in favor. Should President Trump go one further and invoke the support of NATO, even or especially if that requires pressing President Erdoğan to support a Kurdish State or resign Turkey from NATO, something that would actually be good for NATO. Finally, Israel should be particularly watchful for Iranian efforts to take over the Palestinian Authority (PA) or for Hamas to force elections thereby taking over the PA democratically giving Iran three fronts against Israel. Currently, the only thing keeping Fatah in charge of Judea and Samaria is the IDF and Israeli intelligence thwarting the consistent attempts by Hamas to subvert Fatah rule and take over the area themselves. Now with Hamas flush with Iranian aid of weapons and money, their efforts will no doubt be redoubled for taking over the PA. Iran may even have plans to cause an uprising in Jordan and during such conflict, come in and take over Jordan making Israel truly surrounded. This would be the death knell for peace in the remainder of the Middle East. One can expect that Iran will also do all they can to complete their conquest of Yemen and thus complete their encirclement of Saudi Arabia and potentially have the ability to cut off oil and trade between Asia and Europe at the times of their choosing. Once they have Yemen, the world can expect increased piracy in the seas near the mouth of the Red Sea and into the Indian Ocean. Iran is about to surpass North Korea as the world’s primary problem with much of their actions performed by terror entities and through proxies. The end of the Syrian debacle will signal the beginning of the next stage for the Iranian attempts for hegemony of the entire Middle East and their reestablishment of the Persian Empire.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 10, 2017

Taking Care of Syria Quietly Whether for Good or for Bad

 

One might even say that Israel is addressing all sides of the Syrian debacle. Israel has struck military targets, given treatment to those requiring medical attention, taken in a limited number of Syrian refugees and made sure their efforts were acceptable to the main outside, non-Muslim powers invested in Syria. That is most definitely a comprehensive and sensible Syrian plan. The nation doing what must be done and providing true humanitarian assistance is, most remarkably and surprisingly, Israel. What makes all that Israel has done is that there remains no peace agreement between Israel from the original 1948-9 war brought against Israel at her birth which included Syrian military and attacks across and down the Golan Heights. There is also no peace from the 1967 Six Day War or the 1973 Yom Kippur War or any of the other times Syrian forces tangled with Israel such as the air war and other confrontations in the early 1980’s in the First Lebanon War. Since the two nations are still officially at war and Syrian entities have launched missiles, rockets, mortars and bullets over the border targeting Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stationed along the Golan Heights, any actual fighting coming from Israel is once again of a defensive nature and simply securing the border and keeping weapons of mass destruction out of the hands of Hezballah as well as heavy weapons systems. But Israel has been crucial on many fronts in this fiasco called the Syrian Imbroglio.

 

The latest Israeli strike against Syria came midweek of the first week of September where Israeli air forces destroyed a military target presumed to be a chemical weapons plant. Syria reported the strike occurred just prior to three in the morning near the western town of Masyaf. The site also contained advanced missiles intended for Hezballah terrorists who are fighting at the behest of Iran supporting Bashir al-Assad. Israel had previously struck convoys carrying similar advanced weapons towards Hezballah bases within Lebanon, a nation now run by the Hezballah terrorists for all practical matters. Syria is claiming that this is a new first for Israel to attack a research facility while also making sure to mention there having been almost one-hundred Israeli sorties flown against Syrian targets. They admitted that the majority have been against convoys carrying resupply of munitions, not agreeing with Israeli claims that these were resupply of Hezballah positions in Lebanon which means they were intended to be launched at Israel. Striking dangerous items in Syria which are arranged and paid for by Iran is not a wholly new thing as there was the bombing of the presumed construction of a North Korean nuclear reactor for the production of fissile material, plutonium, in the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria (see before and after images below). The New Yorker magazine gave a complete story from the first suspicions through the entangled mess the United States almost made of the entire threat and the final Israeli striking without informing the United States out of fear of the surprise being blown. One telling following event was when the North Koreans leveled a complaint over the loss of at least ten workers and engineers during the Israelis strike at what was not a nuclear reactor, or was, the North Koreans denied the accusation at first claiming the structure was not a nuclear reactor but failed to give another description. Why such strikes as the nuclear reactor and the more recent strike on the chemical weapons missile production plant are left for Israel to perform and are not taken on by the Europeans or the United States is a question which will never be answered, and possibly seldom if ever asked.

 

Syrian Reactor Chamber and Support Structures at Nuclear Processing Plant for Nuclear Weapons Being Overseen by North Korean Nuclear Scientists Before and After Bombing

Syrian Reactor Chamber and Support Structures
at Nuclear Processing Plant for Nuclear Weapons
Being Overseen by North Korean Nuclear Scientists
Before and After Bombing

 

Returning to the treatment of presumed civilians from the Syrian civil war which has more fighting groups than any civil war with which we are familiar. The solution was to allow each group to choose a secure section along the Israeli-Syrian border to leave their injured, be they fighters or civilians. Israel has then, no questions asked, treated the injured and ill returning them to the same locations where they were deposited for treatment such that the correct group receives their civilians and fighters (they are all presumably civilians as they are not in uniforms and are devoid of weaponry). Israelis have proven their high regard for life with repeated treatment of Gazan and Arab Palestinians even to include relatives of, as well as high-ranking officials, and just ordinary people in need of better medical care than available in their own hospitals. Treating people from the Syrian meat grinder of a war is just more of saving lives, something Israel has provided to many far and wide especially after disasters where Israel is often among the first to have a hospital up and running. But we are supposed to be talking about Syria, so back to the subject.

 

Israel has also had to strike numerous convoys which carried advanced weapons such as MANPADS and other high technology anti-aircraft missiles, larger missiles including some potentially capable of multiple warheads and other advanced weapons which could potentially change the balance of power between Israel and Hezballah. Never mind that Hezballah, thanks to Iran and Syria for funneling rockets and missiles into the terrorists’ hands, possess very likely over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying lethality and range from small rockets with range of under twenty-five miles to their largest with a range of approaching four-hundred-fifty miles (see image below). These rockets and missiles provided by Iran and transported through Syria endanger every Israeli and also Jordanians and Egyptians should Iran choose to order such a strike as they have transformed Lebanon into an Iranian outpost. Still, Israel willingly treats people who very well may come back to attack and murder Israeli civilians, not just her military personnel. Such generosity is unusual to say the least but Israel honors life while they honor death, as we are so often reminded by Palestinian Authority spokespeople, Hamas and Islamic Jihad commanders, Hezballah leadership and countless others from Iran to Morocco, or so it often seems. Perhaps that is why there are so many rockets and weapons in these areas, many aimed at Israel and possibly even more they aim at one another, and so many hospitals and clinics spread throughout Israel and why Israel builds more anti-missile systems and shelters throughout the country. That is definitely why Israel treats those who need medical treatment regardless of their origins or how they came to require treatment.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

The truth is that often Israel has been known to act in a manner, which is obviously not the way, which would be considered normal anywhere else in the world. Israel goes to great lengths to save lives, even the lives of her enemies and even the people from a nation with which she remains at war with for the last sixty-nine years (Syria). The Israelis, actually the Jews, treasure life to an extent beyond reason. Still, there are limits even to the Israeli love of life and when the choice is directly between the lives of Israelis, all Israelis, are being weighed against the lives of her enemies, then Israel will act in what the rest of the world considered rational behavior should they face such a choice. That is when the world demands that Israel should have acted opposite the very direction they would choose and they demand Israel apologize for defending herself and protecting her own. One can only wonder what would happen if Israel acted as the rest of the world would when facing similar difficulties. Should Israel ever act as if she were a normal nation and toss the concerns for life to the winds of war, then there might be a cleansing, the very cleansing which Israel is accused of committing whenever a single terrorist is killed to end their murdering innocents. Perhaps the insane charges against Israel for even a single death of a terrorist is brought because the expectation of Israel is to be the marvel she can be in every situation regardless of what rationality dictates. Israel has shown magnanimity and generosity in so many ways and beyond any rational expectation that now, it appears that the world expects that to be the norm rather than the exception. Well, it would be nice if that were the reality, would it not? The reality is many in the world use Israeli generosity as the rod with which to beat her attempting to berate her into committing suicide. The world should be warned that pushing the good to a breaking-point is a senseless and dangerous exercise. The situation, largely thanks to the willful blindness of the world, has reached a point where Israel will have little if any choice should her enemies attack once more. The situation has reached a point where delicacy and fighting simply to push the inevitable back another few weeks or months has come to that tipping-point where such has become a suicidal act. The next war pressed by Hamas or Hezballah will quite likely have to be fought as an all-out effort as their arsenals have reached the point where they have a potential to completely decimate Israeli life. This will undoubtedly shock even Israel’s friends and there will be serious deliberations in the United Nations Security Council and somewhat less serious deliberations as the General Assembly has its most heated debate over what terminology is appropriate for this round of their condemnations of Israel. In the end, the United States will need use their veto or the world will treat Israel as a pariah amongst the nations. It will mean nothing in reality as the truth will be known by all even if they refuse to accept such, or so they will act. We need remember that it was the United Nations who derided Zionism as being racism and has never missed an opportunity, real or imagined, to discredit or denounce Israel. It is when some arm of the United Nations lauds Israel that the world should wake from their slumber and applaud the rarity. Perhaps the news about this time will allow them to take an honest look and begin to appreciate the nation who heals their enemies and does so for free.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 13, 2017

Why the Arabs Will Never Make Peace with Israel

 

There exist three Muslim wars against Israel, two Sunni and one Shiite, and none can make a peace because Islam forbids such a peace. Against infidel, Islam will only permit their forces and leaders to make a ten-year truce called a Hudna. This truce may be broken at any point the Islamic forces believe they have sufficient strength or tactical advantage to defeat their adversaries. Meanwhile, their adversaries must observe the ten-year respite from violence and are often thought to be a permanent cease-fire by the non-Islamic side. Should the Islamic side continue to believe they are unable to defeat their adversary, they too might allow a Hudna to continue despite their history reporting that a prolonged and strategic battle was being fought using diplomacy as their sword. This is often exactly the case in which Israel finds herself. So, with who are these separate and concurrent wars?

 

Let us start with the easiest of these conflicts to describe, the one against the Shiite power. The immediate enemy had been Hezballah which exists in Lebanon. This Shiite militia is backed and armed by Iran and the Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei as its ultimate leader. In Lebanon, their leader is Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. What is usually unannounced has been the merger of the Lebanese military and the Hezballah Militia. This has provided Hezballah with some very impressive modern American, European and Russian weapon systems. This merging of the two forces and upgrading of the Lebanese Army by President Barak Obama with the full knowledge that the weaponry was to be used by Hezballah against Israel and in the Syria civil war was the reasoning which led Israel to inform the leadership of Lebanon and Hezballah that any attack by either would result in total warfare against both and would include all of Lebanon. This was necessitated by the weaponry given to Lebanon which will now also be at the ready for Hezballah and the fact that Hezballah officers may now order Lebanese troops including pilots necessitating the destruction of the Lebanese air forces in any war with Hezballah, especially any assets taking to the air. Truthfully, Hezballah is at the tip of the spear which is controlled by Iran and used in Syria and Iraq against the Islamic State. Currently, the Syrian war has Iran and Hezballah fighting about all they can handle, and possibly more than they can handle.

 

Turning now to the most ardent of the Sunni, we find ourselves looking to Gaza with Hamas and beyond to the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the direct line of support for Hamas which attempts to supply them via the Mediterranean Sea using fishing boats as curriers or via Sinai Peninsula-Gaza crossings and any remaining tunnels. Both Israel and Egypt face threats from Hamas so both attempt to prevent these provisions from reaching Hamas. Also in Gaza is Islamic Jihad who receives aid from the Muslim Brotherhood as well as from Iran. During periods when Hamas and Israel, Iran’s aid to both groups usually peaks as they attempt to meet such immediate needs, especially with rocket motors. Rocket fire across the border and tunnels under the border are the two major means by which Hamas, Islamic Jihad and minor groups attack Israel. The most prized result from these efforts would be the capture of an Israeli soldier or civilian to hold for ransom. The last ransom was for Gilad Shalit and numbered over one thousand terrorists. Yes, you read that correctly, over one thousand for one soldier. Hamas is currently holding four Israelis, two Israeli citizens who crossed into Gaza on their own accord and the bodies of two soldiers killed in 2014’s Gaza war. Hamas likes to report that there are no negotiations ongoing for the release of either the living civilians or the bodies of the fallen soldiers. This is likely only a valid point due to Hamas demanding extravagant amounts of concessions for the release likely of every terrorist held by Israel. This was their starting point in the last round, demanding the release of approaching five-thousand and finally agreed to just over eleven-hundred. Hamas is also demanding that the embargo on goods used for enforcing bunkers and other military needs be dropped and they permitted full range of freedom on imports to include heavy weaponry. Such concessions would place an army of undeterminable size and equipment on the southern border of Israel posing a far greater threat than is currently faced not to mention they could import tunneling machines capable of even more advanced and larger tunnels into Israel under the border.

 

The other Sunni threat comes from the Arab League and their pet project, the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and its offshoot, the Palestinian Authority (PA). The interesting item is that there no longer exists a PLO or a PA as Mahmoud Abbas dissolved the PA and removed any cause for the PLO when on Thursday, January 3, 2013, he dissolved the PA and all agreements made by the Oslo Accords and established the nations of Palestine. This was done in reaction to the General Assembly recognition and upgrading of the PA to “observer state” in the United Nations General Assembly. This vote was seen as a sign that the world had decided that Israel had to be forced to face the reality that the State of Palestine had been established as far as the mindset of the world’s governments were concerned. This is why Mahmoud Abbas is seen as the main threat to Israel when in reality without Israeli protection and the intelligence agencies of Israel, Mahmoud Abbas would already either be on some beach enjoying his stolen billions of dollars with a small army protecting him or dead and buried next Yasser Arafat if he was fortunate. Hamas sees the PA, PLO and especially Palestine to be a tool used by Israel to prevent the destruction of the Zionist Entity (Israel). Hamas knows that were they to replace the PA they would be capable of accurately striking at the heart of Tel Aviv. They are convinced that should they bombard central Tel Aviv and destroy many of the main buildings that the Jews would feel threatened and run back to wherever they came from. There are a number of problems with such a theory. The first is whether any of these nations would accept the return of ten if not hundreds of thousands of Jews. That goes especially for nations such as Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the other Arab nations who thrust out the vast majority if not all of their Jewish populations in the years leading up to 1960. The totals were approaching, if not exceeding, millions of Jews in approximately a dozen years. Add to that the European nations, who largely would prefer not to have to explain to their public why they were accepting these Jews who left once already? Lastly, what about the native-born Jews born of Sabra parents whose families have lived in Israel, often in Jerusalem or Hevron for much of the last twenty-five-hundred years, where are they to run too if not Israel?

 

Should the day come when Arab forces diametrically opposed to the existence of Israel, which include Hamas, Islamic Jihad, PLO, PA and other Arab Palestinian groups were to gain a foothold along the Green Line and hold the commanding ridge above Tel Aviv, as soon as their first rockets struck Tel Aviv there would be launched such an answer to that attack that when the day was done there would no longer be any talks about what borders the Arabs deserved as they would all be placed east of the Jordan River. The result of this peace, the world claims, is “only fair” as the Jews stole the Palestinian Land for their state. What nobody appears capable of remembering is that there was not before at any point in time any nations named Palestine. Palestine is a region like the plains of Africa or the forests of Europe or the steppes of Russia. None of those are nations, they are locations. There has never been an Arab or other State between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea since one thousand years before the start of the Gregorian calendar. That was the time of King David and King Solomon. Before them, there was King Saul and the age of the Prophets and all the ways back to Joshua which was the start of the Israelite State. No other nation has controlled this region as an independent state; it was always a part of a province or was the province of the Jews. The Arabs did not arrive until after 725 and left as soon as they could for Damascus. Should the opinion, not the facts, which give Israel all the rights to the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, as long as they permit the Arabs to have certain rights, which include the right to work, freedom of religion, to pursue an education, medical care, own land, own a business, and almost any other right given an Israeli with one notable exception, they are not entitled to political rights, then progress would be possible. This means they are limited to whatever political rights and powers that the Israeli government is willing to grant to them. This is why Gaza is now the nation of Hamastan. It is a terrorist state, but it has all the makings of a nation, a dysfunctional nation, but a nation just the same. The same is not true for the Arabs residing in Judea and Samaria. They have been granted semi-autonomy which permits limited self-rule. Where they have their own budget, their own areas assigned, their own representative legislature and leadership, they are still under the sovereignty of Israel, defended by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), may not field an army, may be permitted police powers however limited as Israel should decide, do not have to serve in the IDF, can be restricted in movements outside their assigned areas, and may have other restrictions as required for the public peace and well-being. They are not permitted the normative rights of a state and should not be accepted in international settings unless permitted by Israel as their actual overriding governance. The desires of other nations are not legally binding upon Israel and the San Remo Conference and Treaty of Sèvres grant Israel, in conjunction with the White Papers, rule of the lands from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea unless Israel were to leave claim to any region such as Gaza. That is the reality and the picture below depicts an unfortunate reality.

 

 

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace and Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace
and
Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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