Beyond the Cusp

June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

June 18, 2018

Gaza

 

Gaza, the word itself gives thought to meaning, and that meaning is different for every individual. It should not convey such latitude of thoughts, but that is largely due to the media and its mendacious reporting. With the world of reporting as it is, one often will have feelings on issues divorced from reality and stuck forever on a single picture and the caption or the repeated description of the amount of violence from both sides. The range of the “facts” when it comes to Gaza, and to everything touching Israel, is frightening and a threat to even the most basic truths. Once, back in college Intro to Philosophy class, we discussed and even argued fiercely over whether or not such concept of truth and reality had any meaning and how, if at all, were they related. In the end, we agreed to disagree and this was the exact point the professor was attempting to make. His conclusion was that reality and truth had about the same relationship to one-another, as we were able to reach an agreement. Put simply, truth and reality are relative to the viewer and as for is there an absolute reality, according to the professor, such only exists in the imaginary realm described by Plato. My thoughts on that were they probably sat next to the perfect three-legged chair with the perfect two-legged dinner table making them the perfect set for a meal with discussion.

 

While we are on the subject of college, it was in a physics course where we were introduced to the thought experiment, so let us try a thought experiment. First is we are going to represent the United States by using New Jersey, it is roughly the size and shape of Israel. We are going to move New Jersey into the Middle East replacing Israel. Gaza will be placed in the southwestern corner of New Jersey just as it is in Israel and New Jersey will be bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Lebanon to the north, Syria to the northeast, Jordan to the east, Saudi Arabia to the southeast and Egypt to the south. These borders differ slightly from Israel but are fairly representative of reality. For those who disapprove of President Trump, you can choose to have John Fitzgerald Kennedy as the President acting as he did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now to put all of what has happened into a familiar setting, this is what would have been occurring. First thing is there have been violent riots continuously for the past two and a half months and are showing no signs of letting off. Over one-hundred rockets have been fired into New Jersey (Israel) striking as deep as Willianstown/Rahat and as far north as Camden/Ashkelon. Further, there have been hundreds upon hundreds of acres of crops and forests burned down by having incendiary kites and balloons flown over your border and this has started to show signs of increasing and using larger helium balloons to penetrate deeper into New Jersey (Israel). Your intelligence bureau has found maps showing the quickest and most direct routes to the neighborhoods bordering the points where these rioters have attempted to breach the border which have been provided to the rioters. The leader of Hamas and ruling power in Gaza has stated publically and loudly that the rioting would continue until the border is erased, all of New Jersey (Israel) has been liberated, and its people killed. He has urged that the rioter upon breaching the border tear out their hearts and eat their livers of those they come across and murder. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been provided with technology and the required molds for making larger rockets and even rudimentary guidance systems which allow for far larger rockets which can be targeted at specific areas striking within a couple of hundred yards. The largest of these are the M75 which is called the Jerusalem Rocket and the R160 (see chart for increased ranges over the years). That is where things stand currently with the kites and balloons still being launched, the rioting and burning of thousands of tires daily sending plumes of acrid smoke into Israel and across Gaza, the introduction of drones carrying incendiary devices and always the threat of more rockets and even having Iran order Hezballah to join the assault upon Israel.

 

New Jersey Representing Israel in Middle East New Jersey City’s name on the top Israeli City’s name on the bottom

New Jersey Representing Israel in Middle East
New Jersey City’s name on the top
Israeli City’s name on the bottom

 

We promised a map showing the increased range that the projectiles launched from Gaza have attained but allow us to add another item to the scenario, rocket payloads and ranges. The list goes as follows; Qassam-1 has a one and a quarter pound warhead with range of four and a half miles, Qassam-2 has a eleven pound warhead with a range of just over six miles, Qassam-3 has a thirty-three pound warhead with a range of seven and a half miles, Grad has a forty pound warhead with a range of twelve and a half miles, WS-1E has a forty-eight and a half pound warhead with a range of twenty-eight miles, R-60 has a two-hundred pound warhead with a range of over forty-five miles, and the M-75 has a three-hundred-thirty pound warhead with a range of over ninety miles. Looking at the map below and it is not beyond reality to believe that Hamas, supplied by Iran, now has even larger warheads on rockets which can strike anywhere in Israel and, if they overshoot, possibly striking Lebanon and Hezballah (one can only hope).

 

Hamas Rockets and Missiles Depicting Increasing Ranges by Conflict with Yellow – Dec. 2008-Jan 2009 Tan - November 2012 Orange - July-August 2014

Hamas Rockets and Missiles Depicting
Increasing Ranges by Conflict with
Yellow – Dec. 2008-Jan 2009
Tan – November 2012
Orange – July-August 2014

 

So, we have set the stage. What do you believe an American President would do in case of such threats and provocations? Do you think his Security Cabinet would be discussing ways to alleviate the collapsing economic problems within Gaza by doing, as many in the IDF general staff have suggested, providing Gaza with building materials including plumbing supplies of all sizes, cement in the thousands of pounds, masonry in equal amounts, provide them with additional water from Israel as well as additional natural gas and electricity with Israel providing 100% of the necessary power to Gaza? The Israeli leaders actually believe that the problem is the economic conditions in Gaza causing the rioting and all the hatred and not that the hatred and throwing all of their funds into weapons and tunnels designed to destroy Israel ruining the Gaza economy. They were discussing doing what the United Nations and European Union claim is necessary to end the problems in Gaza. Really? Does any rational person anywhere on the planet not think that should Israel do exactly what is described above that the supplies would not be utilized with the plumbing used to make more rockets and mortar tubes and the cement and masonry to build tunnels and not schools, housing and hospitals. This is exactly what they used the plumbing from the greenhouses Israelis left so they could have at least one industry to help start an economic viability became Qassam-1 rockets, and whenever the United Nations, European Union or other nation or organization provided building materials, it almost all went into their tunnels throughout Gaza and into Egypt and Israel, the former for smuggling and the latter for infiltration and terror attacks. Watching the United States over the years and the only conclusion we can reach is if they were in the place of Israel, the world would not have a Gaza problem to discuss. Gaza would have been wiped clean off the map and replaced with casinos along the coast and track housing in the interior with greenhouses and crops of fruit being grown in every open area, which there would be quite a fair deal of after the American military was done. The morning after those one-hundred-plus rockets were fired across an area covering almost one quarter of New Jersey (Israel), the President would have already given the orders and every living thing in Gaza would be cleared from the land and if they resisted, shot on the spot. Everyone who was participating in the rioting would be targeted using facial recognition software such that every soldier would be notified by having the face of the rioter shaded in red in his visor telling them that this person was a legitimate target. Smart drones would be hunting out the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad with anti-personnel missiles ready for launching upon discovery. As for them hiding in their bunker under the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, that just might be the initial strike target. As for the rest of their tunneling systems, we are sure the United States has by now after Viet Nam developed an automated system for destroying tunnels and for shooting anyone found in the tunnel and not identified as an American soldier. What would be even more amazing is that there would be no meetings of the United Nations Security Council, the UN Human Right Committee or the General Assembly or any of the plethora of United Nations Agencies filled with busybodies usually just hunting for their next target. The deed would be done and the problem resolved quickly but not so quietly.

 

Israel, on the other hand, is expected to not only suffer these attacks, but the world demands that we feed and give relief to these very same people who are doing everything in their power to murder every last Israeli. As Israelis, we are not overly pleased with their intentions. There is a growing consensus amongst Israelis that the time has come to stop playing so nicely with these murderous terrorists and dealing with them just as any normal nation would deal with terrorists within their midst, destroying their ability to pose even the slightest threat and then making dead sure that they never gain have any hope of attacking Israelis with more than a sideways glance, and even that would cost them. This is a war between civilization and barbarians who are at our gates. The last time the barbarians at the gates were treated with kindness brought down the existing Chinese royalty when those barbarians swept across China. That should be one of the advantages of the location of Israel, we can look just as easily at Asia and Africa as we can Europe as the three meet at our doorstep. That has been an advantage as well as a curse as every empire seems to go through Jerusalem. The reality of what Gaza poses is written across the map showing the progressive increase in range and payload which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have at their disposal. This is traceable straight to Iran, and it is Iran who has a burning desire to eliminate the Jewish State, the Zionist Entity as they refer to Israel. This threat does not stop at Hamas and Islamic Jihad; it also comes from other quarters.

 

Iran currently has IRGC and al-Quds forces within Syria presumably assisting Bashir al-Assad in winning the civil war which attempted to overthrow him. What is interesting is the presence of al-Quds forces which are trained and presumably solely assembled with only a single target, Israel. Additionally, Hezballah has spread into Syria also under the guise of assisting with the civil war. Hezballah is another Iranian proxy who initially was to take control of Lebanon politically and destroy Israel. They now rule Lebanon and have replaced many of the Lebanese military officers with Hezballah officers but are still working on the second goal of destroying Israel. Hezballah is currently estimated to have over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with over two thirds capable of striking anywhere within Israel and some which could reach Cairo and Medina. Many of these missiles are fitted with fairly accurate guidance modules provided by Iran and made in Iran, North Korea or China. One can only ask the simple question, what are our leaders waiting for, Hamas to have one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with similar capability to those possessed by Hezballah? What exactly will it take for them to wake-up and smell the trinitrotoluene (C6H2(NO2)3CH3)? We pray that the shot fired that the Iron Dome and other anti-missile defensive systems Israel has developed all fail to intercept taking down a forty-plus floor tower in central Tel Aviv is what it finally takes to force Israeli leaders to finally give the order to unleash the full power of the IDF to destroy Gaza and then have the infantry backed by armor retaking Gaza and sending whatever remains of the population into exile not caring where they end up. We have our doubts that even such a tragedy would even get such a reaction.

 

Sometimes we fear that our leaders fear being criticized by the leaders in Europe more than they are of Hamas to Hezballah. If that is the case, then please allow somebody more worried about the people in South Tel Aviv who are under daily attacks by illegal immigrants who should have been deported and if no place will take them, then fly them to The Hague and allow the United Nations deal with the problem. We want leaders who are concerned about the farmers and people in the kibbutzim along the Gaza border whose town centers are on maps showing the rioters the quickest route to reach them to find victims once they cross the border after destroying the fence (picture of the map). We had a mortar land in a kindergarten less than an hour before it would have been filled with young children in the yard (picture of mortar round remains and of damaged tree and area where children were due to arrive shortly). People have had their homes partially destroyed, their vehicles struck and there have been scores of dead and injured over the years from terrorist attacks and offensives which started actually calmer than this round.

 

The big fear is that all of this from Gaza is the lead up to a planned all-out attack from three sides with Hamas from not only Gaza but with Iranian backed terrorists assisting Hamas from the Sinai Peninsula along the Egypt-Israel border, Hezballah along the northern Lebanon-Israel border and a combination of al-Quds, IRGC and Hezballah attacking the Golan Heights. There are ongoing efforts by Iran to gain control over Fatah and the Palestinian Authority and once Mahmoud Abbas leaves office by some means, there is the possibility that Iran will back any number of those who contend for the crown. Iran desires surrounding Israel with proxies to do their fighting for them. They have been doing this in Iraq (Badr Brigades), Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezballah), Syria (Hezballah and Badr Brigades), Gaza (Islamic Jihad and taking control of Hamas) and Qatar which has adopted the Iranian side against the best efforts by Saudi Arabia. Iran wants to take at least the Shia majority northeastern area of Saudi Arabia with the majority of the oil fields and the western coastal region along the Red Sea in order to control the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal as well as taking control of the Two Holy Cities, Mecca and Medina. Iran believes that without Mecca and Medina, the Saudi Royal Family would be overthrown and in the aftermath and confusion, they could simply take over the remainder of Saudi Arabia, thus become the largest oil producer, and control the price of oil making them masters of the Middle East and power beyond.

 

Iran has established an adherent base through Shia Islam who follows blindly the Khomeini innovated ideology which declared Islamic jurists to be the only true source of religious and political authority. Their pronouncements must be obeyed “as an expression of obedience to God,” and their rule takes “precedence over all secondary ordinances [of Islam] such as prayer, fasting, and pilgrimage.” That gives the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) in Tehran almost complete control over these religious followers the world over. The goal is even greater with the “export our Revolution to the whole world” one of “the great goals of the revolution,” for the purpose of “establishing the Islamic state world-wide.” For a deeper coverage on this and Iran generally, we might advise this article (long) which goes into intricate details. The reality is Iran sees their largest and most hated enemies to be the United States and Israel in that order. They refer to the United States as the Great Satan and Israel as the Little Satan. Iran has a number of items on their to-do list which need be completed before they even consider taking on the Great Satan directly, but that day has been planned. The one thing that Iran has in their favor is patience. They are willing to take a hundred years, thousand years, and the rest of time to complete their conquest of the world. They will be careful and proceed with what they can take and rest until things calm and start again and repeat as needed. Iran has a training and action center in the Tri-Border region (PDF file) where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina borders converge. This has become a Hezballah training center and operation hub in the Americas. As we stated, they have plans on the Americas which eventually will lead to the United States. Their initial imperative is to prove that Shia Islam is the strong horse and the true inheritor of Muhammad and turn the Sunni followers into converts to Shia Islam. This they believe they will accomplish once they control Mecca and Medina and have defeated Saudi Arabia. From there they would plan to spread across northern Africa sweeping the heart of Islam and making Shia Islam the main power of the Islamic world. In the meantime, Israel has an Iran problem on almost every border and that should be concern one which must be addressed, and not by providing Gaza with more resources with which to attempt to murder Israelis because eventually they will succeed, and that day will become another day of mourning, and we have sufficient of those already, thank you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 13, 2018

The Consequence of the View from Hamas

 

The initial requirement to discuss this subject is to establish why Hamas matters and what their view is. Hamas matters because in an election held in Gaza they received over three-quarters of the votes. Many polls of the Gazan population have shown over eighty percent of Gazan support firing rockets into Israel. The leadership recently was passed on and the new person who is responsible for day-to-day activities and reality in Gaza was passed to Yahya Sinwar. We recently were provided with statements made by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar who stated, “eat the livers of those besieging” as well as “tear out their hearts from their bodies.” Such statements do not leave much room for doubt. Additionally, Yahya Sinwar has declared, The March of Return will continue,” Sinwar said. “It will not stop until we remove this transient border.” On the violent riots and attempts at the border that Hamas refers to as the “March of Return,” he additionally stated, (The) “March of Return affirms that our people can’t give up one inch of the land of Palestine. The protests will continue until the Palestinians return to the lands they were expelled from 70 years ago.” What must be noted of great importance is his reference to seventy years ago. Seventy years ago was the year 1948, the year when Israel came into existence. He is simply declaring that the violence in one form or another, mass rioting on the border, tunneling into Israel to attack Israeli civilians, firing rockets over the border targeting Israeli communities, flying kites with incendiary explosive devices over the border intending to burn crops or peoples homes or businesses or other properties, and new forms of violence we have yet to witness as well as military action should they receive sufficient provisions to be a potent enough threat to invade Israel, all until Israel is completely destroyed and the Jews eradicated. This is the view from Hamas and thus the generally accepted view of the vast majority of Gazans.

 

To reach an agreement with Hamas and the denizens of Gaza, the Jews in Israel would need to flee, commit suicide or allow Hamas and the Gazans to slaughter them while the remainder of the Israeli population would have to decide to live under Sharia with Hamas as their permanent governance or fleeing. Hamas will not stop violent resistance and insurrection until they erase Israel or something very much dramatic should occur. Even if Hamas were forced from Gaza along with their supporters into the Sinai Peninsula, they would carve out an area on the Israeli border where they would fight any Egyptian forces while continuing to attack Israel. Read that again, Hamas pushed from Israel would remain on the Israeli border and fight Israel while also removing any remnant of Egyptian authority even if such would require Hamas to fight a war with Egypt. This would end up placing Hamas backed by Iran and potentially reinforced by IRGC troops sent by Iran fighting against Egypt unless Egypt simply surrendered their border area with Israel to Hamas and Iran. This would provide Iran with another border where they could place their troops along the border with Israel in addition to the Lebanese and Syrian borders. So, if Israel were to push Hamas and their supporters out of Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula, that would very definitely make Egyptian leaders very upset as they have enough problems with the terrorist and criminal entities currently populating much of the vast Sinai Peninsula, and to Israel it is very large, almost three times the size of Israel. Pushing Hamas from Gaza thus would not only not resolve the problem; it would also make problems for Egypt who would rightfully blame Israel for this added distress. But that would be but a small part of the added problems such would cause.

 

Additionally, pushing Hamas into the Sinai Peninsula would make the problem a factor of over four from fifty-one kilometers to two-hundred-sixty-six kilometers. What would make things exponentially worse is the fact that once established on the Egyptian side of the Israel-Egypt border, Hamas would gain access for importing heavy weaponry and whatever provisions they might desire by simply using the Red Sea or Mediterranean Sea as well as the smuggling routes already existent within the Sinai Peninsula. Where Israel might be capable of patrolling the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea where they border the eastern leg of the Red Sea and the northern Sinai Peninsula along the Mediterranean Sea, the western leg of the Red Sea is largely within Egypt and thus Israel would need to rely on Egypt to patrol this region. As this is also the route taken by shipping using the Suez Canal, patrolling this region would be next to impossible. The result of these conditions would result in a far more dangerous and heavily armed Hamas with provisions of any nature which Iran might decide to provide. This could include tanks, heavy mobile artillery, far larger missiles with advanced guidance systems, anti-armor weaponry far more advanced than the current level, more advanced anti-aircraft weapons including MANPADS and if they establish a region of sufficient size, they could be provided with aircraft and pilots. The simple point is that with Hamas in Gaza, Israel is capable of enforcing a blockade permitting all non-military use goods to pass including all humanitarian provisions while preventing military and other weaponry. Egypt also has a similar blockade on Gaza which permits in negligible aid when compared to the amounts which pass through Israel into Gaza. The problems of losing control prevents Israel simply pushing Hamas out of Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula as this would, with time, make Hamas into another Hezballah with over one-hundred-fifty-thousand missiles and rockets all aimed at Israel now along the southern Egyptian-Israeli border just as Hezballah has along the Lebanon-Israeli border and now the Syrian-Israeli border. Pushing Hamas from Gaza would actually be counter-productive.

 

Israeli Borders Map showing current border with Hamas and Gaza and Israeli border with Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria and Egyptian border with Gaza and Israeli blockade of Gaza

Israeli Borders Map showing current border with Hamas and Gaza
and Israeli border with Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria
and Egyptian border with Gaza and Israeli blockade of Gaza

 

That leads us to the big question, what option does Israel have concerning Gaza as continuing with the threat growing constantly more dangerous is completely unacceptable. Israel would be foolish to push Hamas along with Islamic Jihad into the Sinai Peninsula for the reasons above. This would mean that the reconquest of Gaza allowing the leadership and other members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad to escape is not a viable solution. Any point at which an Israeli intervention into Gaza would begin to give the hint that this was not going to be another smash and leave operation but a complete reconquest, the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad would do everything in their power to escape to the Sinai Peninsula, something which must be prevented. This would require more than simply taking the Gaza side of the Gaza-Egypt border as it is assured that there exists more than one escape tunnel leading from their network surrounding their command bunker in the sublevels of the Shifa Hospital into the Sinai Peninsula crossing either under the Egypt-Gaza border or even passing under the Mediterranean Sea and back into the Sinai Peninsula. Israel would need to take all these separate tunnels and do so before the leadership under the Shifa Hospital could discern what Israel was planning. The simple and only means of reaching peace on the Gaza border would be to destroy the entire leadership of both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and completely cleanse Gaza of all weaponry and weapons manufacturing facilities. The factories can be left intact but the forms and molds for making rocket engines and as much other dedicated weapons machinery would need be destroyed or confiscated. It is understandable that not all such machinery can be removed as some equipment is dual use and thus legal, but taking the vast amount and the dies for making the rocket and mortar components would set back production to such a point as to remove much of the threats. Further, those who manufacture these weapons would be amongst the Hamas officials who would be on the Israeli lists of wanted personnel, which would start with Yahya Sinwar. Lastly, any Hamas officials who might escape would need to be placed on international arrest warrants by Israel and any other nations who would also desire to remove these terrorist leaders from becoming a threat.

 

One item of interest is that despite his brave words, Yahya Sinwar has not been an active member in the border rioting. He has not joined those slinging rocks across the border, those flying kites with incendiary kites over the border, those cutting the border fence attempting to cut holes through which to pass, those crawling to the fence with weapons to shoot at IDF positions nor those burning thousands of tires to produce smokescreens. Yahya Sinwar has appeared one morning at the aid station over half a kilometer behind the active rioting where he delivered his great speech declaring, “The protests will continue until the Palestinians return to the lands they were expelled from 70 years ago.” This has been his contribution, the man who used to be the commander of the militant arm of Hamas and now its absolute leader within Gaza, shouting where the media could cover his brave outbursts demanding the followers risk their lives committing acts of violence and war against Israel. It is an act of war to hurl incendiary devices onto fields of crops causing close to twenty-million dollars in damage and soon to surpass even that number. It is an act of war to attempt to force a mass border transgression with the intent of murdering the civilians of another nation. It is an act of war to fire upon border agents of a neighboring nation. It is an act of war to purposely destroy border-monitoring equipment with the intent of allowing for an invasion or the incursion of a small group to conduct terrorist attacks. It is an environmental act of war to pollute the air across a border through the burning of tens of thousands of tires causing noxious smoke to cover acts of aggression and attempted breaching of the border to conduct acts of terror. It is an act of war to have leaders demand people riot on the border with the intent of their actions leading to the destruction of another nation. The actions which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been taking on the border with Israel are sufficient provocation which any other nation would have used troops to bring such actions to an end removing any threat posed. Such actions would be legal under international law as explained in this article, “Anticipatory Self-Defence Under International Law” (PDF File).

 

Yahya Sinwar Bravely Declaring Support for Rioters from the Remote Safety of the Aid Tent

Yahya Sinwar Bravely Declaring Support for Rioters from the Remote Safety of the Aid Tent

 

The rioting and the entire coverage by the world media have been disgraceful. Their depiction of everything being an orderly, peaceful, benign, civil rights demonstration has been literally turning a blind eye. The stringers are providing the media with their stories as they sit calmly and safely on the Tel Aviv beach at their favorite coffee bistro, sleeping in their five-star hotel, and eating in the finest restaurants. These stringers are mostly Hamas propaganda operatives, better known as trusted sources within Gaza. These stringer know to stand exactly in the middle of the entirety of the action with the rioting and violence on one side and the peaceful scenes of families having picnics and kids playing soccer, of men kneeling in prayer and the aid tent treating the injured, and they know to face away from the rioting when aiming their cameras except to take a video of a group rushing by with a person on a stretcher. We showed one of their videos which showed a youth on crutches who suddenly was capable of fleeing with great alacrity despite his crutches which he held over his head waving them in the air, suddenly he was perfectly capable and no sign of a limp. (video can be watched in our article here) This has a name here calling it Pallywood. The media in Hamas has their stories and pictures checked by minders from Hamas and if they hope to continue covering things as they occur in Gaza, then they must keep to the dictated lines of propaganda. There is a limit to what is permitted to be shown through the Western Media to their viewers and break these rules and you no longer are provided with coverage. Lose your ability to report on the happenings in Gaza and you might also lose your position, your employment. This is why the major media companies’ reporters use the stringers which Hamas assigns them and choose to sit in Tel Aviv all comfortable and safe. What is also interesting is that reporters can freely report from inside Gaza knowing they are safe from injury but the same is not true from the Israeli side. Think about this for a minute, it is not because the Israelis are more dangerous, it is because the Israelis are in greater danger of being shot. In Gaza, you know that unless you are very unfortunate, you will only be targeted if you are performing an act of aggression. If you are with the IDF forces and poke your head up to take a picture or shoot a video, you are very likely to be shot by a sniper from within Gaza, a Hamas or Islamic Jihad sniper. The reality is very different from reported and the solution is definitely different from reported. As far as the Deal of the Century from President Trump, it will be dead on arrival, as Mahmoud Abbas will refuse anything which permits Israel to exist as the Jewish State; and Hamas, under Yahya Sinwar, will not even be read as long as Israel exists and it would not be necessary should Israel cease to exist. The simple truth is the Palestinian Arabs from both societies under their current leadership and any leadership in the foreseeable future have one stipulation for peace, no Israel and no Jews. It really is that simple, and Israel simply refuses to commit suicide, thank you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.