Israeli Position Becoming More Precarious

 

One would be inclined to believe that the Israeli position in her Middle Eastern neighborhood could become even more at risk, but it just might real soon. First, allow us to make a risk assessment of her current troubles. To her north, in Lebanon, Israel faces the largest terrorist army in the world in Hezballah. Hassan Nasrallah leads a sizeable military which has been provided for quite adequately by Iran who has armed them with over one-hundred-fifty-thousand missiles and rockets. A fair proportion of these rockets and missiles are capable of reaching anywhere within Israel and beyond even with the capability of striking into Saudi Arabia or even Cairo in Egypt. Iran attempted to provide new targeting capabilities turning rockets into guided missiles but were not as successful as Iran had hoped. Israeli timely air strikes destroyed many of these guidance packages before they reached their destination. Still, many hundreds, if not thousands, of the most dangerous and destructive rockets were transformed into guided missiles capable of striking targets with an accuracy of under ten feet. These are the projectiles carrying the largest warheads and capable of greater distance making all of the central Tel Aviv greater metropolitan region well within the range of these more accurate weapons. The Dimona complex and reactor are also targeted as very likely is Jerusalem, Beersheva, Eilat or anywhere else within Israel they wish to target. These weapons are just the start of Hezballah and their threat posed and would be the initiating strike, should they be instructed to attack Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Should Hezballah be instructed to distract international attention from any undue attention to Iranian activities, Israel will be attacked from Lebanon and even possibly Syria awaiting the Israeli response. One such was the recent call by European nations who were signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, to review very probable infractions by Iran by continuing their nuclear program. Germany, France and Britain warned Iran of their intention to withdraw from the agreement should Iran continue to transgress into areas which the JCPOA forbids. As their actions have yet to pose a real threat to Iran, all is quiet. Should this or any other difficulty begin to make the world close in on Iran, you can expect they will try to get out of the limelight by starting a war with Israel using Hezballah as their weapons of choice. Israel would need to react almost instantly should such a conflict break out as Hezballah is capable of firing thousands of rockets and missiles into Israel every day until they are stopped. This could be taken care of by the Israeli Air Force within thirty-six hours. This still means that all of Israel would be vulnerable to these attacks for a day and a half, something which really would try the Israeli people’s nerves. In our region the attacks would largely be the smaller rockets in greater numbers but unguided, something which is less than encouraging as the numbers would translate into some major damage to the most northern Israeli cities. The real threat comes from the largest payloads and longer ranged articles in the Hezballah arsenal as many of these have been modified with the most advanced targeting packages. These could be used to target vital infrastructure as well as the heart of Tel Aviv and the numerous skyscrapers within that area. Were one of these struck and caused to collapse in the initial strikes, this would result in many thousands of deaths.

 

These very same missiles could also target Jerusalem and the Dimona complex. The Dimona research reactor being struck would spread radioactive contamination over a large region of the Negev potentially reaching the populated regions around Beersheva. In Jerusalem there is always the danger of numerous holy sites being struck, whether intentionally or through random chance with unguided rockets. Hezballah could also strike at Israeli airfields, both military and civilian, which could delay getting all strike aircraft into the air before being required to repair runways. Hezballah would also most certainly strike at communications and command and control centers in their effort to decapitate the military by isolating each unit from command and leaving aircraft without any ground control making takeoffs and landings more treacherous. Finally, Hezballah has set up tank traps and extensive tunnels and bunkers throughout the region south of the Litany River. Hezballah groups are able to move throughout this region without being required to break above the surface as their tunnel system is that extensive. These tunnels and fortified positions are often placed under residential areas with launch and ambush positions often placed within private homes. When fighting, Hezballah forces the residents to remain in their homes while they use them to launch rockets, missiles and mortars into Israel and when ambushing Israel Defense Force troops should Israel be required to enter Lebanon to end the attacks. There is a second alternative where Israel simply unleashes the hounds of war and completely blankets southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in an effort to destroying the Hezballah war machine. Should Hezballah insist that the Lebanese military come to their aid against Israel and any, or many, of their units join in attacking or fighting Israeli forces, then it can be expected that the targeting within Lebanon would be broadened to address the new threats. The Lebanese military had modern equipment provided by the United States, including Abrams Main Battle Tanks, and Russia, including attack helicopters. Such a conflict could easily spread across with attacks coming from within Syria as the IRGC would take such an opportunity to also attack Israel.

 

The IRGC is best described as the Iranian alternative military with close, if not greater, arrays of weapons compared to their formal military. The IRGC is the only military force to be recognized as a terrorist entity and is utilized by Iran to spread terrorist efforts to anywhere on the globe as well as fighting the foreign wars for Iran but providing a small amount of deniability of their actions by the Iranian government. IRGC forces can have uniforms but more often fight dressed as civilians, well-armed civilians. This permits simply taking the weapons of any killed fighter and then inviting the media to come witness the barbarity of Israel by murdering innocent “civilians,” the same “civilians” who were an ambush team which was overrun a short time previous before their identity change from active fighters to deceased civilians. This same tactic is utilized by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. This time we hope that Israel minimizes the need for IDF ground troops entering into Lebanon where they would face ambush, potentially at every turn, and numerous casualties would start mounting. It would be preferable for Israel to use almost solely air power and ground-to-ground missiles to decimate all that belongs to Hezballah. A nice finishing touch might be to use a deep penetrator warhead to strike and destroy Hassan Nasrallah and the bunker in which he hides. IRGC units have also been the target of Israeli strikes at their provisions, particularly their missiles and heavy weapons, and also striking any position used to launch attacks on Israel including drone control facilities. Both IRGC and Hezballah forces are engaged in the Syrian civil war and in the coup still fighting in Yemen, the two silent wars as they do not include Israel, thus they are not newsworthy as Israel has been careful in choosing and unbelievably accurate in their strikes on these two terror armies attempting to limit their most dangerous capabilities. Thus far, the IRGC has been restricted to using only their ground troops. This could change at any point with their air force being brought into the fight placing them as far as eastern Iraq presumably to protect them from any Israeli attacks. Such an eventuality if used against Israel would broaden any such war to include Iraq and Iran as viable potential targets.

 

That was just the threats originating in Lebanon and Syria. To the south, Israel faces another dual threat under Iranian control and influence. These are Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the latter simply another Iranian controlled terrorist group and Hamas simply heavily influenced by Iranian desires. Here too the main threats are rockets. Hamas has a rocket they call the Jerusalem rocket simply because the M-75 Ballistic Missile can reach that distance (pictured below). As Israel enforces a blockade of Gaza for the inspection of goods to assure that no weaponry or other implements of war reaching Gaza and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, this has obviously prevented the retrofitting of their rockets with guidance systems making them guided missiles as such systems would be found and prevented from reaching the terrorists. This could potentially have dire results as Jerusalem is about the far edge of the capability of their M-75 rocket, their M-75 unguided rocket. This presents the ultimate irony, the M-75 when fired at Jerusalem is simply pointed in that direction and launched for maximum distance simply to assure reaching Jerusalem, could result in destroying the Dome of the Rock, the al-Aqsa Mosque or both. Needless to point out that Israel would be initially blamed and the media would run with that story for a week or so before printing a retraction and correction somewhere around page C-33 and nowhere near the front page as were the headlines which blamed Israel. Unfortunately, it takes time to gather the intelligence and place the blame on the true culprits. This is another capability which the Iron Dome can and does provide, the computed trajectory of rockets, missiles, mortars and artillery. Once the real data will have been gathered, the article covering the reality where Israel is not the guilty party but rather the Islamic forces which fired the rocket which destroyed precious Islamic sites in Jerusalem will be right next to their retraction and correction. Hamas and Islamic Jihad cooperate to such an extent that they can be treated as a single entity with Hamas the primary force as they are the Gazan government. Should Gaza initiate attacks on Israel in any large number, the IDF will respond in kind and going no further. The retaliatory strikes by Israel often target empty buildings around two or three o’clock in the predawn hours of the morning. Once more, there is no violence or any attacks which are newsworthy until Israel retaliates, a retaliation which the media will transform into the initiating attack only mentioning the earlier terror attacks on Israel in the next to the last paragraph. It should be noted that Hezballah has promised to join any war between Israel and Gaza and Islamic Jihad has responded with their intention to join any war where Hezballah in Lebanon are fighting Israel. They worded their statements implying that Israel was the aggressor despite knowing that such is not the case.

 

Monument for the M-75 Ballistic Missile Named the Jerusalem Rocket

 

Fortunately, the main problem for Israel being caused by the Palestinian Authority (PA) is their paying terrorists or their surviving family with cash payments for life which are greatly more significant than even the PA government, and security personnel are paid a lesser salary than these terrorists. This offer of cash for murdering Israelis, they call it murdering Zionists or Jews, has become a career choice as should you murder one Israeli and then be arrested, you will serve your sentence in a country club atmosphere with more benefits than many Israelis receive from the government. These attacks are largely stabbings and vehicular rammings of pedestrian traffic. The PA, under both Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas, has rejected every peace proposal by which any land is placed under Jewish rule allowing Israel to survive as is. Their entire effort is performed with the intent of completely destroying Israel. Their main effort is on the international political front where they seek recognition of the PA as a national government and accepting the PA definition of their borders. The PA views their borders as being the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, or more simply, all of Israel. The main reason that there is any semblance of quiet on this front is due to the presence of IDF throughout much of the region and good intelligence work by the Shin Bet and others and because to their east, Jordan has a cold peace with Israel which they prefer not to endanger for reasons which will become clear. The turmoil emanating from the PA will start upon the death of Abbas as he has not been able to groom an acceptable replacement as Arafat had prepared him. But even this is but a minor threat as the PA does not have sufficient strength to wield in any such fight. The rest of the southern border is with Egypt and except for illegal entrants and occasional criminal violence, this border is quiet and problems actually are addressed by Egypt rarely requiring any assistance from Israel.

 

 

The eastern border along the Jordan River and its natural barrier called the Jordan River Valley has been the best-behaved border. Yes, occasional terrorists are out of Jordan and were given their target by the PA and not anyone in Jordan. Jordan is the remaining Hashemite kingdom which was set up by the British after World War I with the other having been Iraq where the monarch was removed in a coup. The Jordanian King, Abdullah II, has sufficient control currently using his military and Bedouin Tribes to rule over the approaching eighty-percent of the population being Arab Palestinians. Jordan is the Arab Palestinians country which was made by cutting 78% of the lands east of the Jordan River to the border with Iraq from the intended Jewish State in order to gift it to one of the Hashemite sons of King Faisal (the remaining 22% was left to form Israel). Under King Abdullah II, there has been peace, or at least tranquility, since the treaty was signed in 1994. But there are some serious rumblings out of Jordan as their economy is suffering poor management as the country attempts to care for many millions of Syrian refugees who fled the country escaping the civil war. The economic drain is being felt throughout the kingdom and this has made many of the residents less than enamored at this situation. Many complain and blame their problems on economic mismanagement and an over-reliance on international aid which has led to the current situation. Rioting in the major cities is almost constant, but the King has bigger problems at the moment. Jordanian Bedouin tribes constitute the backbone of the regime and this is starting to faulter. Bani Hassan tribe has taken an adversarial role with the king releasing an official statement listing their concerns demanding they be addressed immediately. The Bani Abbad and Bani Hamida tribes are supportive of these efforts making matters even more serious.

 

So, what would be the result if King Abdullah II abdicated his throne leaving Jordan without any head for the government? Jordan does have a parliament which would continue to operate after the King leaves, but the question then is for how long. Not all of the problems are the fault of the King as he has given much of his power to the legislature, but he retained the final veto power should he desire its use. The problem would begin with an election where either the Muslim Brotherhood or Iran using largely IRGC units would take control turning the country into another terror base from which to launch attacks on Israelis. One can bet that the Iranians will gain a large influence even if they are not the rulers, Iran will gain influence amongst the populace and deal with Israel sending terrorists into Israel along her eastern border. Such an eventuality would not bode well for Israel. Israel already has factories within Jordan providing good jobs. These enterprise zones run by Israeli companies are a good start but cannot become the main provider of jobs in Jordan. Should the Kingdom collapse, these Israeli firms would probably exit bolting back to Israel. The terror situation would, at some point, bring about a crisis which would threaten the peace potentially ending the blissful relationship previously shared. There is another threat which might come to pass which would worsen the tensions in the Middle East, far beyond just Israel. Iran would woo the Jordanians, particularly their leadership. They would offer arms and rocket and missile systems. The buildup in Jordan would easily outpace that which happened with Hezballah in Lebanon. Iran would really love to have Jordan in their pocket as they border nearly the length of the northern border of Saudi Arabia as well as the eastern border of Israel. Iran recently claimed they have attained the ability to wipe Israel from the map. This is almost a tacit statement announcing their having developed a deliverable thermo-nuclear warhead with which they could wipe out much of the Israelis residing in the greater Tel Aviv region. There is also vital infrastructure which supports most of Israel. Iran would have Israel all but surrounded should they gain control in Jordan. There would be further dangers such as an actual threat of declared war breaking out either with Israel or Saudi Arabia. The initial difficulty for Israel should the Jordanian monarch be dethroned will be increased terrorism with the terrorist using everything in the armory including nuclear weapons should they have the need.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

With Trust Broken Trust Renewed Again?

 

Thursday evening there was a nonevent taken place with Egypt again as the intermediary. Israel and Hamas signed an agreement for an end to the balloon and kite terrorist attacks as well as ending rockets, mortars and presumably all other forms of terror attacks utilized by Hamas. In return Israel extended the fishing distance into the Mediterranean Sea and other considerations. One might ask why Israel would enter once more into such an empty agreement knowing full well that as soon as Hamas or Islamic Jihad are ready or receive directions from Iran, the attacks will start anew. That is presuming that the attacks actually are terminated at all. The nice thing about this round of trust given-trust broken was that we did not have to wait all that long before the lack of reality of the treaty was revealed. Within twenty-four hours of signing the truce, there were approximately seven-thousand rioters launching balloons and setting numerous fires across the southern border with Gaza. Hamas will inevitably claim that these were ground swell demonstration which they are unable of preventing as they are an expression of the unease amongst their population. This is an unease promoted and paid for by Hamas and their sponsors in Iran. These attacks have grown beyond the ability and probably beyond the desire of Hamas to control. Hamas instigated these attacks as a means of employing the restless youth who seeking employ were unable to find anything in Gaza. This is due to the Gazan economy all but in total collapse.

 

It is well known that Hamas has made one of their main concerns to be fomenting attacks on Israel. This is what led to the last war over the launching of hundreds of rockets daily for over a week before Israel responded militarily. Since that confrontation, Israel has deployed the Iron Dome missile defense systems which have made rocket attacks almost harmless. The Iron Dome is capable of intercepting multiple rockets at a time. Their remarkable interception rate and ability to project where a projectile will land has permitted Israel to all but nullify rocket attacks from Gaza. Hamas initially responded with border riots and terrorist infiltration tunnels. Israel developed a system which was capable of detecting the tunnels and the ones beneath Israeli territory were destroyed. This led to the launching of incendiary kites. These fire-kites worked well but their range was limited, thus the next phase was launching these devices using balloons. These carried the explosive charge further into Israel and spawned additional fires away from the former fires still being extinguished.

 

Hamas has already claimed after the last treaty that they could no longer control these fire launchings as they had grown beyond their ability to control. Hamas had absolutely no difficulty in suppressing the large scale riots and protests against their misrule of Gaza but are unable to prevent a group of youths and young adults launching balloons. This will be their excuse behind the several thousands of rioters who flocked to the border launching incendiary laden balloons into Israel sparking a record number of fires for a single day’s protests on Friday after the truce was signed. Hamas has allowed these rioters to continue with their assaults on Israel leading to the end of the last truce which did not last twenty-four hours and this time is proving to be no different. Hamas signs truces with Israel not intending to alter their violence against the Jewish State but to use as an additional bludgeon to beat Israeli resistance to a halt. They have no intentions for slowing or stopping the arson attacks on Israel and will, with time, return to their tunneling beneath the border with infiltration tunnels intended for the murder and kidnapping of Israeli civilians and to launching rockets at Israeli communities including Haifa, Tel Aviv and other cities over time.

 

Negotiations with Hamas have proven ineffective in preventing or ceasing their violent activities targeting southern Israel. Time and again these conflicts have escalated until a larger and more encompassing Israeli interventions is launched. With Israel heading for elections again in September, Hamas believes this is the time to take advantage of Israeli avoidance of large-scale operations in Gaza or elsewhere. Their feeling is that Israel will remain vulnerable at least until the elections as Bibi Netanyahu is not anxious to have to explain to the public his actions when the majority of Israelis are not affected by the Hamas escalation of attacks. This will, unfortunately, merely act to encourage Hamas to escalate the situation climaxing the week before the elections. Their hope is that the Israelis will react by electing a government more conducive to granting them even further concessions. Concessions are a reward and will never act as an inhibiting factor for a deterrence curbing the violence and rioting. The unfortunate reality is that Hamas, like all of Palestinian Arab society and too many of the Middle East region, only understand strong military actions designed not to retaliate but as a preventive measure which had removed their ability to strike at Israel. Their current form of attack with balloons and kites would be impossible to inhibit unless Hamas has an interest in preventing their taking place. That has proven something elusive to the Israeli leadership as if they have forgotten every lesson of past dealings with Hamas.

 

Hamas Demands Arming Terror with Money

 

Further, Hamas is demanding that Israel permit their monthly payments of millions of shekels be permitted by Israel. These are the funds which Hamas required in order to pay their people, this according to Hamas. What Israel need learn from Mahmoud Abbas and apply to Hamas is that the first and most important payments on their payrolls are those willing to harm Israel and potentially murder Israelis. None of the payments will be used to prevent violence against Israel but rather to pay for additional violence against Israel and the stockpiling of rockets for future wars on Israel. This has been their exact modus operandi and will continue as such for as long as Israeli leadership is willing to play the patsy to Hamas. There are two tactics which would prove far more effective but which apparently Bibi Netanyahu is unprepared to use. The easiest which would simply cause Qatari money to find a new route into Gaza. They would likely be required to bribe Egyptian authorities and even then, such would be an unlikely path as Egypt has caught Hamas assisting with attacks on Egyptian personnel in the Sinai Peninsula. The other tactic is straight forward, military might to be used to smash their tools of war. There exists another means of deterrence which would work which has yet to be applied, targeting the areas where the leadership of Hamas reside and the stores, restaurants and other entertainment facilities such that the leadership finally pays a price. The main reason for the temerity in this area is because they would not desire to open up such an area where Hamas terrorists might target them. The final means of ending the problems arising from Gaza, be it Hamas, Islamic Jihad or any other terror entity would be to drive all of Gaza from Israel depositing them in the Sinai Peninsula. Such an operation would require making preliminary arrangements with the Egyptian government so they could be prepared to arrest or otherwise detain the Hamas leadership and military commanders. What is so ridiculous is that were Israel to follow such a path, the world would condemn Israel and blame Israel for the incarceration of the Hamas top leaders, both military and political, as if there is any real difference. The difference is that were Israel to incarcerate the Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership, the world would be screaming for their release. By having Egypt do so, the world would scream for Israel to arrange their release and Israel could simply claim that no such plan has proven acceptable to Egypt. The world would not bother attempting to force Egypt to release these terror leaders as they know it would have no effect. But the Israeli leadership refuses to escalate the conflict to such a level.

 

The honestly sad reality is that eventually the depopulation of Gaza will be the final result of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad et al terror war against Israel. Their education system, summer camps and their entire education system is geared to the production of future terrorists rather than educating for a normative society. Their emphasis is not on Mathematics, sciences, language and other areas which are required for a productive and normal society. This is not the aim of Hamas and their allies. They are interested in producing armies of terrorists ready for that day when they will be capable of bring down Israel. Their dream is to reach a similar state which Hezballah has assembled in southern Lebanon and is using to assist Bashir al-Assad in Syria where Hezballah has well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles with many capable of striking anywhere in Israel. This is partly why Hamas has allied with Iran as it was Iran who armed Hezballah. This is partly why Hamas continually demands that their region allowed for their fishing fleets be expanded. They know that by increasing their area for fishing, they increase the area for smuggling in such weapons making Israeli deterrence and preventive measures far more difficult to apply. Their dream is to be gifted an international airport through which tons of such military provisions could be transferred without the opportunity for Israel to prevent such. The same applies to their insistence to have their ports open and is the essential demand of the flotillas which regularly attempt to run the blockade which permits Israeli inspection of provisions before passing them on into Gaza. Currently, these inspections usually take under twenty-four hours with most provisions passed through the same day as they arrive. Stopping the so-called humanitarian supplies is another means of harming Hamas as any provisions which the terrorists do not have to expend funds on is simply more money for terrorism. Israel has permitted on several occasions for building supplies to be permitted into Gaza which should have rebuilt all the damages from the wars. Almost nothing has been rebuilt as these building provisions have been used for building bunkers, tunneling networks, underground rocket firing positions and infiltration tunnels. It has been figured that Hamas could have build several schools and apartment buildings with the materials used in a single infiltration tunnel. Multiply that by the dozens of tunnels and all of Gaza could have been made immaculate instead of remaining in ruins. There are literally two Gaza’s, the one where Hamas leadership lives and the one where they place their rockets and mortar positions knowing that return fire will destroy the area surrounding the position (see images below). This is why we have often suggested that instead of return fire solely on the launch site, but also lobbing a small artillery round at a single target in the thus far pristine regions and start allowing the difficulties caused by this constant state of war to be shared by those responsible. The reality is that each rocket fired into Israel, every balloon launched into Israel, every kite carrying explosives into Israel and every tunnel dug under the border into Israel all originated with the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. We may find that some rounds of violence from Gaza may have been ordered even further away in Iran which opens up a plethora of future possibilities.

 

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

 

The entire Arab Israeli conflict will have only one of two eventual results. The obvious one is no more Israel, something much of the world appears not only willing but anxious to bring about, and the other is a defeat brought forth by Israel such that no Arab for a thousand years would even give a glancing evil look in the direction of Israel out of fear for their life. Such results have historic precedence. In almost every case where the Arab forces have been prevented from extending their rule further has been as the result of a military defeat which was unequivocally severe and ubiquitous for preventing their reorganization and returning to attack again. Such defeats in history include but are not limited to the Battle of Tours, the Spanish Inquisition, the ending of the Second Siege of Vienna when Polish King John III Sobieski relieved Vienna bringing his entire army south for the effort after reaching agreements with his neighboring countries to not invade while his forces performed this holy duty, and of course World War I marked the end of the Ottoman Empire. Granted, Israel will not be required to go to such extents but the world will still howl as if Israel had committed a war crime unprecedented in human history.

 

Never mind that virtually every battle and war before the modern era would have constituted a litany of war crimes committed by both sides as making warfare a more benign action is a recent insanity. This has led to the concept of proportionality, which President Trump just used to justify his recall of the strike upon Iran. There has never been any war where proportionality was utilized by either side, let alone the victorious side. The overriding use of force in warfare has been an attempt at imposing disproportional damages, casualties and defeats upon the enemy. Some small examples of such acts of disproportionality include the nuclear bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima at the end of World War II, the Rape of Nanking by Japan in World War II, the Bataan Death March during World War II, the Shoah extermination of over twelve-million undesirables by the Nazis in death camps, the use of poison gas during World War I, the entrance of the machine gun (Gatling gun) in the American Civil War, the Roman conquests, the Greek conquests, the Persian conquests and on throughout history warfare has been a contest of which side was capable of imposing the greater amount of disproportionality inflicted upon their enemies. Whenever proportionality is used, it is usually to impose severe constraints on one side preventing them from actually defeating the threat facing them. This is the main reason for its use all but exclusively against Israel. There were no intents at proportionality in the recent efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans or any of the conflicts which have taken place since World War II which brought in the modern era with concepts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and proportionality as the means of preventing wars from reaching actual conclusive endings which has served to actually prolong conflicts as since neither side was able to inflict a complete defeat using disproportional force after their enemy was defeated but refusing to surrender, their having to stop due to world pressures only led to the conflict resuming at a later date leading to far more damage and higher casualties than had the initial efforts been permitted to reach a permanent solution. The other thing which we have noted is that proportionality has only been demanded from nations considered to be Western nations. This has been applied to India in their running conflict over Casmir against Pakistan. There were some who were worried that during the period that India had nuclear warheads and Pakistan did not, that India might actually use these weapons to impose finality on their conflict with Pakistan. Unamusingly, once Pakistan also had nuclear weapons this fear of their use bringing on a disproportional end to the conflict dissolved and was never equaled by the fear of a nuclear war breaking out and both sides decimating the other’s civilian populations in many of their major cities. But evidenced by the virtual universal use of disproportionality is the United States coming in second and Israel the easy winner as virtually every action taken by Israel is condemned for being disproportional. There have been people and groups who have bemoaned the fact that Israelis are being saved by the Iron Dome and Gazans have no such system; thus, they have demanded that Israel provide Hamas with the Iron Dome systems. This is the end result of the logic of proportionality and these are the ends of ridiculousness the world has reached in their hatreds towards the Jewish State. There will be an end to this conflict some day and the world can only pray that Israel proves the victor as any other result will spell doom for the world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Same Tired Old Peace Plan?

 

President Trump is unveiling his economic part of the Deal of the Century which, if present rumors are correct, another attempt to send good money after bad. The rumors tell of a plan to economically revitalize the Palestinian Authority and relieve the economic malaise which is Gaza. If this sounds eerily familiar, that is because it is the same plan used by the Bush Roadmap and Clinton’s initial attempts at Oslo. In each case there were millions and billions of dollars flushed down the kleptocratic drain once more. Were these monies used to build someplace new in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt in order to allow the Palestinian Arabs to get out from under the kleptocratic regimes, then it would avoid being a means for wasting away the investments by granting contracts to relatives and friends for buildings which are seldom realized or dedicated to the entertainment and better living of the current elites. The embezzlement of any amount of funds is the norm and will negate any and all attempts at investing for the future. To those at the top of the financial tree, there is no time like the present for stealing from the mouths of the people, especially the poorest so as to keep them agitated and enraged. The same story will be fed to them about how Israel stands between the people and their rightful riches while their actual riches are being stolen. If President Trump and his supposed expert advisors, which include his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Jason Greenblatt, David Friedman and Kushner aide Avi Berkowitz, are the only ones who have seen the plan, then no one knows what is in the plan. For all we know, even President Trump has not been so privileged, though we hope he too has approved whatever plan is going to be presented. The end of the week and the presentation in Bahrain should provide a flurry of excitement followed by inertia setting in until the money disappears.

 

What is troubling is the introduction is to be presented around the concept of, “You can’t let your grandfather’s conflict hold back your children’s future.” The actual name will be the, “peace to prosperity” plan. The implication is for investments to be made financed by an international consortium with the intent of providing employment and economic incentives for building a functioning Palestinian Arab society. This is going forward leaving the same people who have murdered every effort at an economic investment and instead absconding with a percentage of the investments and using the remainder for financing the leaders’ life styles and making more weapons, explosives, incendiary bombs, and for their new program of using drones for targeted attacks upon Israelis, their farms and their communities as well as targeting on occasion the IDF positions. What is the attraction for President after President trying the same policy and expecting different results simply because they are willing to throw even more money than the last try. Believe us when we inform you that there is no amount of money so great that the leadership governing the Palestinian Arabs cannot find alternative pathways for it being spent. This is akin to giving a drug user money to make sure he stops using drugs and instead cleans up and gets a job. There is no amount of money which will survive the tangled finances of the Palestinian governance leaving anything for empowerment. The money will be used principally for paying terrorists and their families, the very first thing on Mahmoud Abbas’s agenda for any funds which are available by his own admission. So, just in case President Trump has other intentions for the United States taxpayers’ money, despite what he may desire, Mahmoud Abbas will use it first and foremost to pay those who have murdered and crippled Israelis and he even has a chart defining how much one receives depending on the number of victims and other variables (see below). With such evidence, we wonder how much more the world requires before they discover that terrorism and the murdering of Israelis (preferably Jewish Israelis) has been made into a profession with a very generous sized renumeration which is promised to continue for as long as the world continues sending the Palestinian Authority, basically meaning Mahmoud Abbas, funding these payments are first to be paid. Let this attitude and the fact that the best paying job is to go into Israel and murder an Israeli and then get arrested and you are now providing your family with economic security for as long as this fiasco is financed. Imagine how many murders Abbas will be able to finance with four or five or even six and a half billion with a ‘B’ dollar gifted intended to provide a better life for the average Palestinian Arab. Abbas is willing to spend the money doing exactly that, as long as the average Palestinian Arab family has at least one member willing to murder another human being, specifically an Israeli, which has shown to have been the incentive for all too many terror attacks.

 

Palestinian Authority Remunerations for Terrorists

 

There may be a real problem with President Trump’s Deal of the Century if it will be based on providing presumably financial incentives and aid for the average Palestinian Arab as attempting another economic build-up in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority ruled regions will take all the funds and nothing will change. The Palestinian Arab ruling elite cannot allow the people to become comfortable as comfortable people are difficult to pressure into committing terrorist acts. The central interest of the payments to those who have attacked and particularly killed Israelis only works if the region is depressed and there are insufficient jobs such that people become desperate and decide to sacrifice their freedom for financial security for their family. The Palestinian Arab governance is based on terrorist actions in the hope that such acts will drive the Jews from Israel allowing them to finally destroy the Zionist entity. What Abbas and the entire Arab world do not understand is that the Jews have waited for over two thousand years to return to their ancestral homelands under their own rule. This is our homelands and we plan on keeping them and really have nowhere else to go. Take the half of the Israeli population descended from the Jews forced from their homes across the Arab world of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) over fifty or even sixty years ago. They are not able to return to their former lands as they would be murdered upon arrival. Then there are those descended from surviving the Holocaust who were unwelcomed in the towns and cities where they had been forced into ghettos or sent to the concentration camps. These also have no other homeland and such is the case for the vast majority of the Israeli population. This is home and the Arabs will never realize their dream of destroying all of Israel and removing the Jews from the land. One reason is that the real occupation is the Palestinian Arabs residing on lands promised to the Jewish People with the signature of King Faisal who headed the Arab League at the time of the signing of the Mandate System derived from the San Remo Conference and other treaties of the day. The lands west of the Jordan River were all set aside for the Jewish State and that is the reality under international law. But then again, the Arabs also believe that Andalusia should still belong to them despite the existence today of Portugal and Spain. But wait a few more years until Arabs and other Muslims start claiming regions of Europe which include entire cities and provinces after they have established Sharia courts and are enforcing Sharia on the populations both Muslim and the remainder who will be endangered. For what they will be facing, read about the spread of Islam across northern Africa and the frightening events which brought on a Christian reaction using similar tactics learned from Islam of convert or die. When it was found that Christians under Islamic rule were being forced to convert, the Spanish responded with the Inquisition. This made the Spanish Jews wanted by both Christians and Muslims so many of the Spanish Jews headed to safer climes accepting an invitation by Poland leading to an enlarged Polish Jewish population until World War II decimated the Jews of Poland.

 

Right now, just looking around the world and it is becoming more clear every week that the only place where Jews are guaranteed to be protected by the government is in Israel. The United States is mostly safe for Jews but that is changing with alarming speed. Europe is close to becoming unsuitable for Jews to reside with any comfort. Should Jeremy Corbyn win the British elections coming up, then there is the possibility that the British Jews will flee the British Isles for places more conducive to their general health and well-being. Some will make the mistake of believing and choosing the United States as their safe port which will only delay the final move which is coming for many Jews, that is to Israel. What will the world say when over three-quarters or even four-fifths of the world’s Jews have returned home to Israel. Will the United Nations still be claiming that we have no attachment to the land? Anybody who has witnessed the reclamation of these lands and the making them productive again from the disaster which greeted the initial Jewish immigrants coming back home in the mid to late nineteenth century, how can they not argue that the Jews and the land being one. Israel has taken a land which for all intents and purposes was forsaken swamps, rock strewn hills and a land devoid of people and spirit and made it into one of the most vibrant and productive societies on the planet. If the way the Jewish People were greeted and accepted by the land itself which had lain barren and undeveloped for two millennia while the Jews were refugees strewn across the face of the earth. The land and the people are one and neither is capable of reaching their ultimate achievements without one another. The Jewish People and the Lands of Israel are intertwined and each without the other are incomplete. Trump’s plan, if it is dependent upon an economic resurgence fueled by billions of dollars, we hope he is ready to watch just that many billions of dollars going completely to waste except for the tunnels, bombs and terrorists that they can purchase. That has been the result before with an uptick in the levels of violence every time the Palestinian Authority or Hamas members in Gaza received an influx of money no matter the source be it Qatar, the European Union or the United States. This is what has occurred every previous attempt to economically revitalize the Palestinian Arab society. Some things are so completely broken beyond the world’s ability to repair such that they would be best forgotten and allowed to finish deconstructing as they would have done long ago without the billions if not trillions or more which have been thrown at the Palestinian Arab societies without a single iota of progress or improvement. Here we go again with increased terrorism until the money runs dry, which it apparently never will until the world has been drained of its capital, and then the Palestinian society will finally collapse.

 

Beyond the Cusp