Why Not Simply Face Facts

 

Let’s start with something simple. The Oslo Accords were originally set to provide a path to the ultimate peace within five years. Oslo II extended that another five years when one year was left in the original. That is a total of nine years and then the Oslo Accords and Oslo II applied from 1993 through 2002. When Oslo mercifully died, George W. Bush presented the Roadmap which was a three-phase plan which would design peace by the end of 2005. This too failed miserably as the intransigence of the Palestinian Authority was absolute. Then came the most wrongheaded brilliance ever imagined from the State Department and proposed by Condoleezza Rice. This was the Gaza Disengagement which revolved around two main things, first the Palestinian Arabs were to have elections for their Palestinian Legislative Council and second Israel was to pull everyone from the communities to the IDF from the Gaza Strip. The theory was that by having open elections allowing Fatah and Hamas and anyone else to freely run that Hamas would be relegated to almost no power losing in the popular elections and then the Palestinian Authority could use Gaza to showcase the wonders they could produce if given the opportunity. Well, Hamas won the elections, the split in the Palestinian Arab people became more pronounced, the greenhouses worth tens of millions of dollars were ripped apart to make rockets and because they were Jewish. The end result was Hamas taking complete control over Gaza and using it for attacks on Israel with complete disregard for the people, the economy and the world still believes that the Arab society is one. As far as what peace plan is in effect currently, there isn’t one. The Palestinian Authority has refused to even meet or speak with Israel since George W. Bush was in the White House. There was not a single meeting during the eight years when President Barack Obama was in the Oval Office. President Donald Trump has said he hopes to present the Deal of the Century once he has weighed all the options and found a path to resolve the intractable situation.

 

What have seen the balloons floated through leaks and other means? Well, there has been the suggestion that perhaps instead of Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat and the Palestinian Authority, engaging Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in some arrangement and having them rule over Areas A and B as denoted by the Oslo Accords. The sole concept remaining from that time is what will be done with Area C. Areas A and B would likely be consolidated such that they are contiguous with many of the main roadways being shared with Israel as these roadways are essential in connecting Israel communities, cities and workplaces. President Trump has stated numerous times that any solution would have to be acceptable to both parties which the media has interpreted as meaning the Palestinian Authority and Israel, but that may not be the case. The recent rejection of anything President Trump presents and complete rejection to even meet with President Trump’s negotiating team by Saeb Erekat, has resulted in the Trump administration demanding that he be replaced. This was met by an immediate reply by Erekat that he is indispensable and will never be replaced and that it is Trump who has caused the problems by moving the American Embassy and becoming a pawn of the Israelis. The Palestinian Authority has thrust down the gauntlet at the feet of President Trump stating in actuality that Fatah and the PLO are more like Hamas than they are to an agreeable people who are willing to meet Israel in any deal. This was the PLO, Fatah and the rest of the Palestinian Authority doubling down on their payments to terrorists and their families, being fully supportive of the Hamas violence and returning to the Arab maximalist demands for the elimination of the Zionist Entity (their name for Israel). They also want the Jews to either accept living under Arab rule as Dhimmis or sent to any place which would accept them or annihilated with the last being their preferred final solution. This is the current reality for as long as Hamas, Fatah, the PLO and Palestinian Authority are left as the leadership for the Arabs residing in Gaza and the Shomron (West Bank as it was renamed by Jordan). That leaves very little maneuvering room and add to this that Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat and the other leadership have ruled any plan from President Trump rejected upon arrival and reject the United States as a neutral mediator demanding that the United Nations General Assembly or other world body inclusive as the General Assembly to be the final deciders. Anybody who has followed the consistency with which the General Assembly decides one-hundred-plus to a mere dozen at best and thirty to forty abstentions against Israel realizes the impossibility of internationalizing this process and believing that there is the slightest chance that Israel would survive the process.

 

So, where does this leave the entire predicament, and it is a predicament if one is going to address this in any normative means. The first thing one need realize and internalize is that the Palestinian Authority was dissolved on January 3, 2013, by Mahmoud Abbas when he declared that he was establishing the Arab State of Palestine. This was accompanied by their changing all their official documents to read “State of Palestine” and Mahmoud Abbas declared himself President. This move invalidated every applicable document, plan and decision made over the past five plus years which mentioned Palestinian Authority which should also include numerous denunciation of Israel in reference to Israeli steps taken against the Palestinian Authority as one couldn’t act against something which no longer exists. Further, this declaration brings to an end any and all agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and these agreements would need to be reestablished if they are to be valid and made between Israel and Palestine. Further, every act of violence by Palestinian Arab terrorists are now grounds for a declaration of war if Palestine is meant to be an actual nation. Also, all Palestinian Authority offices around the world including in Washington D.C. and the United Nations are no longer valid and should be shuttered. Further, the representative for the Palestinian Authority no longer represents a real and existing entity; the United Nations must discharge him from all duties. Finally, Palestine would need to reapply for membership or observer status at the United Nations before they could bring any new motions and any motions brought over the past five years need be invalidated, as they had no entity with which to bring these motions. This also ends all debate over the two state solution and things from there start to get very interesting.

 

The realities of the situation with Palestine and with Hamas bring everything into an interesting place. We have no doubt that a nation called Palestine would receive recognition, and already has, from a great number of nations of the world including many in Europe. The question now is what are its borders with Israel? The common knowledge of facts on the ground and agreements would permit the nations of Palestine to claim Area A and need to negotiate with Israel over the division of Area B and they would have no claim to Area C. This is resultant of the original divisions under the Oslo Accords where Area A was under Palestinian Authority, the predecessor from which Palestine would receive their validity, control while Area B was under joint Israel-Palestinian Authority control and Area C was under complete Israeli control. If Mahmoud Abbas really desires to claim that the Palestinian Authority has been laid aside and replaced by a nation called Palestine, that is fine and Israel should immediately annex all of Area C and deport any and all Palestinian Arabs into Areas A and B. Then the state called Palestine can decide whether or not they care to discuss the division of Area B, the right of way permissions for roadways which would now lie in the respective nations and other arrangements. This would be to their advantage, as would their making very sure they do not make any moves which might be interpreted as an act of belligerence which might result in a state of war with Israel. Also, this state of Palestine had best take measures to prevent any act of terrorism from their citizens against Israel as that could result in an impasse where a state of war might result. Perhaps Mahmoud Abbas might best reconsider that declaration and do so with urgency.

 

This leaves President Trump with really no viable options as by becoming a nation, actually two nations, the Palestinian Arab leadership has left no room for negotiations. This has become a three way state of war with Israel in the middle and Hamastan in Gaza in an obvious state of war and Palestine encroaching, with assistance from the European Union (see image below), into Area C which is Israeli sovereign lands currently under military rule but which could be placed, and should have been long ago, under civilian Israeli law and annexed freely and formally into Israel.

 

Illegal European Union structures bearing obvious EU Identification signs

 

There have been calls in the past for a three state solution and if we are to take everything as it stands, that is exactly what we have. Israel disengaged and literally gave away Gaza with no guarantees or reciprocity and the Palestinian Authority lost it in a coup to Hamas who along with Islamic Jihad and support from Qatar and Iran currently rule that area independent from any other authority. With the current rioting and threats to the border and the launching of incendiary devices across the border destroying thousands of acres of forests, game reserves and fields, a state of war has been declared by Hamas who openly calls for the eradication of Israel and the death of every Jewish person on Earth. Palestine has refused to negotiate the outstanding differences they have with Israel and has claimed lands which belong to Israel. At the very least, they lay claim to parts of Jerusalem, an area which Israel has annexed and granted the residents special citizenship permitting them to vote in municipal elections though not in national elections. Should Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of what President Trump believes and too many Israelis insist on this fantasy of the Palestinian Authority really insist that they have declared independence and are the nation of Palestine, then Israel need only ask them what are the borders. The Palestinian Arab leadership should consider their answer to that question very carefully as Israelis might not appreciate their answer. The result of their overreach could easily be construed as a declaration of hostilities and in such a condition, the smallest act of violence could start open warfare. Wars have been started over far less. Currently, Israel has been far too passive over the war declared by Hamas and friends in Gaza and should begin to respond to this threat by targeting the places the leadership enjoys and even target their homes. The time has come to make those responsible for the hurtful damage to Israeli farmers’ lives and livelihoods and the destruction of crops, forests, wilderness preserves and the threat to Israeli lives pay for their acts of malicious violence. The period of passivity in the face of open aggression only encourages more of the same on an ever-widening scale. The escalation has already begun when they replaced the limited range kites with balloons with greater range. What are our leaders waiting for, Hamas and allies to start attacking with drone swarms all laden with ever-larger incendiaries? The rockets were fired again just a few nights back and we can bet that eventually the rioting will result in rockets and missiles raining down as Hamas is seeking a war in order to show off the pictures of the damage which was never repaired from the past two wars claiming that Israel has made the lives of the people of Gaza a living hell. Hamas is being far too modest; they have made the lives of the Gazan the living hell by diverting all provisions into their infiltration tunnels, making more rockets, and other provisions for their plan to annihilate all Israel. When one knows that there are those who come to kill him, he should rise early and kill them before they have the opportunity to kill him. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are trying their best to kill Israelis within ten, twenty, thirty miles of the Gazan border currently, who knows when they will extend that line another ten miles or more. Is there some unwritten law that until Tel Aviv and the high society people are threatened that Israel just takes whatever Hamas dishes out? Are the people of Sederot and the kibbutzim along the Gaza border expendable? The same goes for the knifing and ramming attacks sporadically from the Palestinian Arabs under Mahmoud Abbas. These attacks are not only encouraged by Abbas but he pays for them very handsomely as long as you succeed and kill Israelis or are killed in the process of your attack. Confessions from the terrorists themselves have stated they were committing acts of terror so their families would receive payments and that they wanted to be killed by Israeli security, police or IDF so their family would live the good life.

 

There is a sad reality which many Israelis realize and know that the Arab war to disestablish Israel will never end. Even if Israel was to militarily take all of the Shomron, expel the leadership and terrorists and grant the Arabs who desire to remain resident alien status with the potential to someday apply for citizenship, not immediately but in good time, this would not be the end. There would be another leadership which would live in one of the Arab nations calling itself the rightful Palestine government in exile demanding that the world completely extinguish Israel and give it “back” to its rightful Arab owners. They would continue to claim that the Jews never resided in the Middle East and that all Jews are Europeans sent to destroy the Arab lands despite their having expelled almost one-million Jews in the decade after Israel was founded. Somehow, as these Jewish refugees were not placed in camps and left there, they disappeared from history and suddenly the world decided they too were Europeans who were, we guess, hiding in the Arab Middle East and North Africa. Even the Jews who resided in the area which is Israel, mostly in Jerusalem and Hevron, and could trace their ancestry back to the times before King David, they too were declared to be European outcasts. The Arab world will continue to repeat every anti-Semitic slur against the Jews and claiming the Czarist forgery, “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” is actually historically accurate. Mein Kampf will continue to be one of the top selling books in Arabic and the Mufti of Jerusalem Amin al-Husseini, who spent World War II in Berlin socializing with the Nazi high command and was on the list to be tried in Nuremburg but the British figured he would be better used destroying any hope for the Jews to establish their state, will still be lionized as their great leader against the Zionist imperialism. There will still be articles and cartoons depicting the Jews controlling the world through banks, government manipulations, controlling media and virtually any other conspiracy theory one can imagine, and they have brilliant imaginations. The theory is that as long as the Arabs can make life difficult for Israelis that the Jews are weak just like all the interlopers before them and will eventually surrender and leave like the British, French, Italians, Crusaders, Ottomans, Romans, Greeks (which is funny as the Arabs never fought the Greeks), the Persians (they fought Persia after Persia had been defeated and depleted by the Greeks hundreds of years earlier and never faced the Persian Empire) the Babylonians (they never faced them either) and all others, were there any others, oh yes, the Hebrews also known as the Jews. They cannot include that as it would contradict the Jews never lived here. The Arabs claim it is because they are a desert people that they have more patience than anyone else. Desert people, I seem to remember something about forty years wandering in the desert and as for patience, the Jews waited longer than Islam has existed for our return to our ancient homelands. Sure, they will out-wait the Jews because the Jews do not have the same patience as have the Arabs. That is the first thing they got correct, the Jews do not have such limited patience as do the Arabs who have no idea what patience is. Jews have waited over three-thousand-years and the Messiah still has not arrived, maybe tomorrow.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Commentary on the Twin Perils, Iran and Palestine

 

We recently read Professor Louis René Beres’s article Twin perils for Israel: Iranian nuclear weapons and “Palestine” and thought perhaps we might discuss what was presented. Professor Beres wrote in his normal manner with deep thought and high reference to numerous experts and historical exposes on warfare and other pertinent subjects. There was also the almost obligatory reference to the difference between the principal adversaries and whether they are presumably rational, irrational, or mad. We figured we would relate that which we were able to discern from the article interspersed with our own ideas on this subject. We hope we can do Professor Beres, his article and thoughts justice.

 

One of the main ideas we caught was Israeli planners in the IDF, intelligence and political leadership need to weigh the threats collectively and assign the sum and realize that their collective threat could far surpass their individual parts. Quite true just as engaging two people in a fight is far more difficult than taking each one at a time on separate days, or preferably weeks. Three, four or even more starts to reach into the multiple risks and more can reach exponential level of additional risks. Professor Beres is knowledgeable and has very deep and good counsel with much of it aimed at the leadership of the IDF and intelligence community. This was where we started to take a diverging path from the good professor. Where his advice may well be very wise and even sagely, whether or not it would be of use to the current IDF command could be debated. If we have judged these leaders fairly, few of them came from infantry combat units and they are too often subjected to second-guessing by legal teams of lawyers well versed in the international rules of warfare. These legal analysts strictly interpret these guidelines and follow them to the very last letter of the law and when in doubt, they countermand orders preventing actions which could end conflicts faster and even potentially prevent future conflicts. Then there have been instances where the Israeli Supreme Court has countermanded orders given during times of war. With such strictly enforced guidelines and oversight of their every act and order, it is a wonder that the IDF manages to operate at all. The IDF is cast by military experts of the Western World, as being the most moral army in the world setting a standard well beyond what other militaries even envisage attaining in their conflicts. Below is a presentation by Colonel Richard Kemp who gave this lecture at MIFF Forum in Stavanger September 24, 2016. Colonel Kemp has given testimonies before the Human Right Commission as well as the General Assembly of the United Nations. His record with the British military in Special Forces and as a Unit on through Brigade Commander in Afghanistan and Iraq makes his testimony both valid and given from the position of an expert.

 

 

Because of the restrictions imposed by legal and moral restraints, the IDF often is prevented from taking some of the exact precautions prescribed by Professor Beres. Still, the coming predicaments which Israel might be facing are exactly what Professor Beres has postulated. Even though, perhaps it is time to examine the perils of the article. Fortunately, we hopefully will never realize one-half of the presumed threat, the State of Palestine. It is to be hoped and prayed for that even the most leftist liberal leadership have finally realized that an independent Palestinian State would be tantamount to suicide for Israel. Gaza and Southern Lebanon have proven beyond any further doubt that any lands surrendered by Israel immediately, or soon thereafter, become terrorist cesspools used to launch attacks through rockets or tunnels into Israel. There is but one question remaining to finish the currently existing puzzle, where will Trump position himself on the Israeli-Arab fourteen-hundred-year on again off again and finally on again conflict. The recent March 13 meeting in the White House with twenty nations including many Sunni Arab countries and Israel may have much to tell and potential effect on where Trump comes to rest. With the United Nations, European Union, numerous amongst the European nations, Qatar, the United States National Security Council (NSC) staff and the Department of State all having input while it is quite probable that President Trump has only requested a report and had not attended the entire meeting leaving the particulars along with the fighting, arguing, disputing, lying, abuses, ridicules, insults and general ruckus which was sure to break out, and that all before the Israeli representatives even spoke a word. There was a single bright spot in the White House confab, the PLO and Mahmoud Abbas rejected the invitation declaring President Trump unfit and far too partial to be a fair moderator between the Palestinians and Israel. Why not double down once more Mahmoud and really get Trump to hate you. Please, do keep it up.

 

As long as Israel retains military control and political ambiguity on the future of Judea and Samaria, then the threats from those areas will be hopefully mitigated. Should Israel do what is wise and annex the areas of Judea and Samaria and exile the PLO and leadership of both the Palestinian Authority and their security forces thus the Arabs being permitted to decide to sell their holdings and leave to start their lives over elsewhere, research has shown that anywhere from one-third to at least half of them would take advantage of such an opportunity. If Israel were to offer them a bonus to relocate, as they are the illegal immigrants, the estimates rise to two-thirds to three-quarters. The remainder could then be offered to remain as resident aliens for as long as they obey Israeli laws and should they or any member of their family participate in terrorism, they should understand that the entire family would be immediately deported. Once this has been made clear in as many languages as necessary, the remaining Palestinian residents should be given a final opportunity to take the financial offer to relocate. As far as Gaza, estimates have placed the estimated numbers of those desiring to relocate at seventy-five percent who also claim the only reason they remain is due to the threats made by Hamas should they attempt to leave. Apparently, the majority of the Arabs residing under the semiautonomous rule of the Palestinian Authority and even higher numbers residing under the direct rule of Hamas desire to restart their lives, most likely returning to their original home country where they have family and friends as well as a stronger governance which prefers caring for the people rather than spending the vast majority of funds to attack Israel bringing only more misery upon their people.

 

That leaves Iran which Professor Beres claims will easily become a nuclear power soon after the ten years agreement President Obama made with Iran. President Obama agreed to a ten year agreement, a Hudna, rather than a longer treaty potentially pushing Iran’s program theoretically even further into the future. Now, there are certain precepts in a Hudna which bare mention at this time. The Islamic side of such an agreement is required to live by the terms unless they feel their position is stronger than their enemy and thus they then break the Hudna and resume their hostilities. We firmly believed that the Iranians had atomic weapons which could probably be placed into warheads even before the negotiations had begun. There is even a fairly decent probability that Iran had miniaturized thermonuclear warheads capable of being placed atop missiles. Iran also had numerous different missiles fully capable of reaching Israel and beyond (see map below). The Iranians were probably stalling the nuclear agreement by extending negotiations as they produced more and more warheads before they would be required to stop production for a period of time. The actual agreement that President Obama likely reached with Iran was they would not use their nuclear arsenal until a set period, probably two to three years after he had vacated the White House. In this means, it would likely be his successor who would be blamed for any nuclear weapons use by Iran. There may have even been a sub-clause where Iran would wait for the next President had Hillary Clinton won the election. This will likely be another item blamed on Trump and the American deplorables who elected him, at least on social media, that is. Professor Beres is completely right when listing Iran as a great peril. They are already such if we are even partially correct. Even if they have not perfected nuclear weapons, a highly doubtful concept as they have very intelligent and well-trained and highly educated physicists and nuclear scientists and have been running several levels of centrifuges for quite some time before the treaty was reached, plenty sufficient to produce weapons of any sort they choose. But the world really does not care if Iran were to fire missiles at Israel regardless of the warheads. But what if Iran chose a different target than Israel, how much would the world care then?

 

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

 

The real problem is that Iran has others they also desire to subjugate other than Israel, who they desire to utterly destroy. Iran also has a great degree of hatred for Saudi Arabia, the Sunni giant in the Iranian mindset. Iran has all but encircled Saudi Arabia much as they are close to doing to Israel. For Israel they only need Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, another reason Israel cannot allow a Palestinian State as Iran would become their new best friend and place troops and weapons at their command to use against Israel as part of a concerted effort which would include Hamas in Gaza, Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria with IRGC troops engaging from the Golan Heights. With Saudi Arabia, they have Iraq, Qatar, Yemen and would probably also like to add Jordan, Kuwait, UAE and Oman to go with Qatar which could be a staging area for Iranian forward troops. The Iranians probably would prefer to take out Saudi Arabia before Israel simply because tactics dictate taking the weaker target out first, and even more so when it would provide staging areas and additional resources, such as captured weapons systems. Saudi Arabia has airbases in the northwest which have a close proximity to the Israeli border and would also be very useful should Iran desire taking out Egypt later on. The real problem which Professor Beres never did get to cover is the eventual intentions of Iran in the longest term. Iran has an initial desire to become the leader of all Islam and making Shia Islam the predominant form in the world through defeating the leaders of the most prominent Sunni countries which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan for starters. They already have a fair amount of control in Iraq and Afghanistan. Once they have conquered the Muslim World, their next target is the rest of the world starting with Europe. Iran also has a visceral desire to strike Russia but that will wait until after Russia has provided them the backing they need to take over the Muslim world and then Europe, then Iran will likely turn their attention to Russia. Where would Israel fit into their schedule, the secret for Israel is to prevent the first set of targets such that Iran never reaches the point where Israel is the next target. This may have been in the back of Professor Beres mind in writing his critique.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

The Potential for Al Jazeera Starting the next Middle East War

 

Qatar has opened a gashing wound upon the Saudi Royal Family and their claims to be the “Servant of the Holy Places” of Mecca and Medina. Using their weaponized radio and television channels broadcasting as al Jazeera they have called for the internationalizing of the Islamic Holy Cities. Such an eventuality would rob the Saudi Royal Family of their claim which justifies their ability to rule Saudi Arabia and could even foment a civil war within Saudi Arabia. The reasoning behind this call being made by al Jazeera may not even be originating from Qatar but instead from Tehran, Iran and the Mullahs. This might even be a ploy originating in Ankara, Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has visions of reestablishing the Ottoman rule over Mecca and Medina. Wherever the idea for these broadcasts, the one thing which is obvious is, it has heightened already drawn tight tensions with Iran, Qatar and Turkey on one side and Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt on the other. As if things were not bad enough, with the recent drone incursion into Israeli airspace by what was an Iranian flown remote aircraft intercepted by Israel, led to the Israeli airstrike in Syria on Syrian and Iranian command and control centers used for such operations. Add in the recently started new front in Syria with Turkey bringing a war against the Kurds in northern Syria and a likely land grab by Turkey whose President Erdoğan has made speeches claiming that Aleppo historically was a Turkish city. This is also part of President Erdoğan’s delusional belief that it is his destiny to reestablish the Ottoman Empire. He has also made claims on Kirkuk and Mosul which are Kurdish areas of Iraq. One thing which is clear is the Turkish President has strong hatreds with the Kurds both within Turkey and elsewhere.

 

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubayr warned Qatar that clearly previously such a call for internationalizing the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina would be interpreted by Saudi Arabia as a declaration of war which he further stated, “Do not test the patience of the great powers, you dwarves.” This was an obvious attempt at intimidation which Qatar has apparently disregarded. Qatar has some insurance against any Saudi aggressions as there are troops sent by Turkey within the nation plus Iran has promised to aid Qatari interests from any Saudi or other outside actions. With tensions at such a heightened level and the above-mentioned nations restating their mutual support on each side and enmity for the others, it would take one wrong step, one misspoken word at an overly sensitive moment or even a misreading of intentions to tip over the first domino leading to the entire stack falling in rapid succession. These tensions and the recent fighting between the disparate parties in Syria, the interventions of Iran across the Middle East including Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon and possibly beyond including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist entities have proven President Trump correct in his assessment that Israel-Arab conflict is not the central problem.

 

President Trump has realized the reality that the Arab Palestinians are not the central focus of the Muslim world but an all but forgotten backwater which nobody desires to take too much interest just in case they might be stuck with having to come to their aid. The Arab Palestinians are simply an unwanted group of malcontents whose leadership had worn out their welcome across the Arab world. When the Syrian civil war first started, one of the first places bombed and struck with artillery barrages were the Palestinian refugee camps with the largest being barrel bombed for almost two weeks solid. These were the first victims of Bashir al Assad’s wrath. It may have been that President Trump noted how even the self-declared greatest friends of the Arab Palestinians, the European Union, European nations and leftist NGO’s were all silent and never registered even the slightest of concerns over Bashir al-Assad’s wiping out of the Palestinian refugee camps. Between such lack of real concern for the Arab Palestinians whose troubles could not be placed on Israel and Mahmoud Abbas consistently refusing every offer to talk or reach a peace under any condition has led President Trump to demand actual effort and signs of real sincerity before he will waste any further funding of UNRWA or the Palestinian Authority. President Trump appears to have one main objective in the Middle East, to keep the United States as untangled in the entire area as humanly possible. We should all hope that nothing changes this and forces President Trump to decide it is necessary for the United States to engage in the Middle East as such would only occur if things became excessively dire.

 

Iranian Allies versus Saudi Allies and pro-Saudi but Neutral

 

The unfortunate thing is should a war break out starting between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and quickly spread to having Iran step into the breach and also attack Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates as well as Saudi Arabia to force the Saudis to defend on the greatest number of fronts and also have the possibility of Turkey sending troops and air power to assist Iran as Turkey has returned to allying with Iran after a brief period of neutrality while seeking United States military aid which was provided. What is most disturbing is that Turkey continues to be a NATO member which makes possible numerous troubling demands which could be made of NATO should Turkey be dragged into a conflict against Saudi Arabia and aiding Iran. That raises the question as to what the United States do if called upon to honor the call of another NATO member for aid in a war they were presumably dragged into which would place the United States aiding Iran against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and their other allies which President Trump has decided are the United States true friends within the Islamic World. Perhaps President Trump’s belief that the Middle East is best left at arms distance or further may be the smartest means of dealing with most of the mess developing within. President Putin has been attempting to extract Russia while not losing face or disturbing his allies who are becoming more burdensome than they will likely prove to be worth. In the meantime, Putin had best find some way of putting a tight lid on the building pressure between Qatar and Saudi Arabia probably by insisting that Iran calm their attack dog and end the al Jazeera attacks on the Saudi Royals and end the calls for the internationalization of Mecca and Medina before the pressure boiler explodes from the pressure and open violence breaks out.

 

The causing of a new front in the Iranian war on the rest of the Islamic Arab world in their quest to spread Shiism making it supreme over Sunni Islam by whatever means required has only increased the regions where Iran can now threaten. If Iran truly desires to make Shiism preeminent and dominating the Middle East, picking a war with Saudi Arabia and Egypt would be the most direct method, perhaps not the smartest, but it would be the most direct. Saudi Arabia holds the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina and Egypt has the largest populations as well as the leading Islamic university, Al-Azhar University in Cairo. Taking control of these assets and swaying this many Arab Muslims would go a long way in having Shiism become dominant in the Middle East and make spreading it throughout the Islamic world far more readily possible. It might simply all depend on exactly how far along the Iranian work to develop and build a nuclear arsenal has come along. If it is much further along than believed by Washington D.C. and Jerusalem, then this task just became far more likely and the Iranian threat beyond just the Middle East just became exponentially more dangerous. This is another reason for the Russians to try to calm the situation because the last thing everybody needs is a war which could easily escalate completely beyond any efforts to control, and an Iran possibly facing losing a conflict with Egypt and Saudi Arabia might become capable of anything to try to alter such an eventuality. The one way Iran could lash out would be an all out attack upon Israel, and the last thing the world would need is an attack on Jerusalem and/or Tel Aviv with weapons of mass destruction, as the Israeli retaliation would be definitive and devastating. Perhaps Qatar had best be advised to calm down their rhetoric as otherwise things stepping beyond anybody’s ability to calm could be right around the corner, and if such is pressed, then it should be understood that Iran desired an open conflict and should receive all the responsibility for what follows equally with whoever fires the first shot.

 

Beyond the Cusp