Before we start, it is necessary to once again lament the security given to Joseph’s Tomb by the Arab Authorities as once again we find that it was permitted to be desecrated and burned completely down destroying the multiple-thousands of shekels of holy books and other items which adorn the tomb dressing it with the dignity it deserves only for it to face destruction and desecration without even a whimper of complaint by a world devoid of feelings nor capable of compassion for this holy site of Judaism and Christianity. This holy site and the entirety of the holy sites in Judea and Samaria must be returned to their proper caretakers and the only people who would keep such shrines from becoming the blazing inferno pictured below which was Josephs Tomb a night or two ago.
What is preventing an end being implemented in the Arab Israeli conflict is easy to say; Mahmoud Abbas and his merry band of thieves which includes Saeb Erekat, Muhammad Dahlan, Salam Fayyad, Abed Rabbo, Ahmad Quri’a, Hanan Ashrawi, Hanna Amira, Wasel Abu Yousef and the rest all refuse to end it as then they might actually have to permit what has become known as Islamic adjusted democracy where every voter gets to cast one vote one time and the result was determined a week ago but that has little to matter with reality. The leaders of the Arab Palestinian Authority (PA), Fatah Party, Palestinian Leadership Committee (PLC) and any other presumably elected body might run into a problem far more dangerous than elections which have thus far been avoided for over a decade; they might need to face a future without any Israeli security making life in Judea and Samaria safe from such forces as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Islamic State, or worse, other Islamist force more capable of replacing Abbas and his crew just as Hamas replaced the government in Gaza after the IDF and the rest of Israeli forces and citizens departed, turning the Gaza over to the PA and Mahmoud Abbas in August of 2005. Such threats are sitting along the sidelines appearing all the much like starving vultures waiting for a weakened and doomed meal to finish dying before swooping in and stealing the prize from their still warm corpse. Thus both Abbas and Israel have an advantage by sharing the security arrangements in Judea and Samaria. Abbas gains security of the IDF defending against Hamas and other potential rivals and Israel has on location security and intelligence presence which has proven near remarkable results on the recent stabbing spree by Arabs in Jerusalem and across Israel within the Green Line or at worst within the terror barrier which so many around the world have claimed served no purpose other than harassment. But there are a set of problems which perhaps we should try and fathom their consequences. These include Mahmoud Abbas dying of natural causes, Islamic State crossing the Jordan River and attacking Ramallah or the Security Council using the threat of force to demand that Israel return to within the 1949 Armistice Lines, also called the 1967 lines with one adjustment where Israel remains responsible for all security throughout Jerusalem.
When Mahmoud Abbas, currently age eighty years, dies it will leave a power vacuum which would leave the numerous members of the leadership to each start vying to be the next President for Life. There would be the power struggle while an election date would need to be set and then there would be the arguments as to whether Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood and who knows who else to also place candidates on the ticket. There would be pressures from Europe, European Union, the United States and the United Nations for an open election which could result in Hamas or other groups mentioned winning control of the Parliament and possibly the Presidency or even candidates placed on the ballot who may be members of the Islamic State getting their foot in the door which could only result in serious implications. This would also very potentially be seen as the perfect excuse for the United Nations and the rest of the less than sane leadership of the world who mostly appear completely without knowledge for how the politics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) usually play out demanding that Israel pull out from the “disputed territories” which would be replaced by a multi-national force consisting of European, United States and other United Nations peacekeepers who would monitor the election and take care of security for the state of Palestine as it got on its feet financially and politically. Any situation in which Israel was forced to remove the IDF and the Jewish “settlements” were forced to return within the Green Line thus ending any reason for security and intelligence sharing between the Arab governance in Judea and Samaria with Israel would result in a coup if not a succession of coups and the failed state such would produce becoming the next Syria within months. As soon as the peacekeeping forces became the targets of choice for every Islamist or member of a political group’s military wing whose leaders believed they were the rightful rulers of the Arabs then the Peacekeeping troops would be heading for Amman Jordan to Ben Gurion Airport or Tel Aviv within hours and on their way home on the earliest fight with an opening or on the next chartered flight taking them home. Within weeks of such a disaster there would be seven to twelve Arab and Muslim armies perched on the Judean hills, set to assault the Golan Heights, sitting within five miles of the Lebanon border with Hezballah and their recently gifted older Russian T-55 and T-72 tanks (read our article named “How to Measure the Arab War on Israel and Beyond” for more coverage of this and other developments which we reported on October 6, 2015) and within five miles of the border in Lebanon; while should Egypt decide not to enter the fray then only irregular terrorist groups will be in the Sinai Desert with all ready to take another stab at what was attempted and failed in 1967 and the Six Day War. Simply stated, should at any point Abbas die without having first signified his successor, there will reign chaos making Judea and Samaria prime target for some group to take control of the area and if that should be the Islamic State, then Jordan would be in danger as well. Mahmoud Abbas actually is the moderating force which keeps everything balanced.
There is the potential for the Islamic State to take Ramallah after rolling over Jordan, with King Abdullah II abdicating and moving likely to some place in Europe; the Islamic State would proceed to any crossing of the Jordan River. The reasons for the Islamic State to move to first take Ramallah would be to establish their authority over the PA and seeking out whatever documentation depicting the power structure that Mahmoud Abbas had fabricated in order for the Islamic State to find and question these leaders to determine which ones they might retain and which earned a starring role in the next film released by Islamic State after they secured as much of Judea and Samaria which they were able, replacing the Arab Palestinians where it is determined to be necessary. Once the Islamic State had crossed the Jordan River they would become a direct threat to Israel. That is assuming that King Abdullah II had, instead of abdicating and remained to fight, already requested for IDF and other Israeli assistance. Then Israel would be facing almost dream-like situation being able to fight against the Islamic State well before they would need to engage them after they had crossed the Jordan River and a mere twenty miles from reaching the Mediterranean Sea and cutting Israel in half.
The final scenario threatening Israel begins with the Security Council using threat of force, enforcing Israeli retreat to within 1949 Armistice Lines with Israel left responsible with security for Jerusalem. This scenario would simply result in the same ending as if Mahmoud Abbas had died or stepped down as the removal of the IDF and the intelligence sharing would result in a scramble to take the top spot in the election that the Security Council would most definitely call for soon after their arrival. Calling for elections would fracture the current order of the politics as each person thinking they had a chance of finally becoming the one true leader that the entire house of cards would disintegrate. Once this had occurred the elections could not come fast enough as with everybody busy buying votes, there would be little if any attention paid to the crumbling situation as the peacekeepers attempted to keep the peace while Hamas or Islamic Jihad or any other groups which was not permitted to run would band together to remove the United Nations forces and take control by coup. This would result in no government in place with any number of factions all attempting to take control which would soon require some outside force to end the fiasco and place the area under some form of government. Such a task could only be performed by a group with sufficient respect and support by the people in Judea and Samaria or by a group willing to do whatever it takes to reinstall the governance which existed before the world busybodies decided to use their influence to repair an obviously broken system and upset the apple-cart.
In the end the Arab Israeli conflict will eventually come down to a simple power struggle as to who should rule Judea and Samaria, some form of tyrannical terror state or Israel. The end result will become just another failed state experiencing internal power struggles seeking one single leader willing to take command over a fractured political system and reinstitute some forms of ordered structure with themselves as the kleptomaniac in charge of deciding who gets what piece of the pie and how large or small that piece of the pie should they receive. Needless to point out that no matter who might win the day initially, their staying in power will require they find some manner or way to assure their lead position remained unchallenged. With the current power structure broken, there are very few forces which could guarantee such security. Such groups would include but not be limited to Russia, Iran, Islamic State and Israel. The area itself is likely far too small to be a viable state as it does not have the infrastructure nor the natural resources to allow for a stable economy, especially when one considers the security forces required to control an area as splintered and well-armed as Judea and Samaria have become as weapons are constantly being brought into the area to arm the Arab security forces and somehow these weapons appear to melt into the ground every few months and thus require new weapons be provided, and there is no lack of sources more than glad to gain influence by providing those weapons be it Iran, the United States, the European Union or even as ridiculous as it seems, Israel often at the demand of the other sources who have simply become disillusioned and are trying to place the onus for the area on Israel, a situation they will soon afterwards complain is stifling Palestinian society making it ungovernable.
The final taking of responsibility will eventually fall to Israel as she cannot allow the games, the very dangerous games the world will continue to play to go on until the area somehow attains nuclear weapons, a game changer everybody should rightfully fear but too many might be enabling through their actions. So the end of the fighting over Judea and Samaria will eventually fall to Israel and within a couple of generations the terrorism will have died out as the general wealth and wellbeing of the area will have improved sufficiently that the average family has far too much to lose wasting their comforts on revolution thus the status-quo will have become stable instead of every minute a new emergency or threat to world peace breaking out. The only thing which can prevent such a finality are the European Union, the United States or the United Nations or any combination attempting to work with any Arab or Islamic entity such as Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, Arab League or even Jordan, though Jordan has thus far proven to be smart enough to desire to have nothing to do with its formerly occupied area; they know exactly the kettle of spoiled fish the area is capable of becoming at the drop of a hat. The end will result in Israel controlling the entire area or a return to a failed land with nobody believing it to be worth cultivating as it will refuse to give up a yield worth the effort of planting and cultivating.
Beyond the Cusp