Beyond the Cusp

June 19, 2019

The Threat for a Nuclear War

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:58 AM
Tags: , , , , , ,

 

You mention that there is the possibility that the next large conflict could include nuclear weapons and most people just give a half-hearted chuckle and walk away leaving you standing wondering if it was what you said. Well, it was what you said and nobody wants to even consider such a terrible set of events. Those who do engage in such a conversation point out that the efforts for nonproliferation will prevent any such unwanted eventualities. They refuse the argument that every weapon mankind has ever invented were used in the next big war or in the war currently raging. Gunpowder, catapults, trebuchets, ballistae, crossbows, long bows, mines, rockets, nerve gas, other chemical agents, tear gas, aircraft and virtually every other form of weapon has been used. Currently in Israel, Hamas has taken to using such innocent items as kites and helium balloons to carry incendiary devices which are burning fields, forests, wilderness preserves, towns and anything else they land near. They have also attached exploding toys and brightly packaged candies laced with poison. Mentioning that such is simply another example of weaponizing everything and when it comes to nuclear bombs, well, they are already weaponized. The nonproliferation argument also runs into difficulty as if were not for proliferation of nuclear weapons, only the United States and Russia with perhaps china would have nuclear weapons. But many other nations have developed and stockpiled nuclear weapons and others are on the verge and thus far only South Africa has gone from being a nuclear power to destroying their arsenal and becoming a nonnuclear nation with no nuclear weapons program that is known.

 

So, why our concern over nuclear weapons and their use? Well, the nations involved directly in the fighting in World War II were all given a small introduction to the horrors which nuclear weapons cause with the bombings of Hiroshima (image below) and Nagasaki. The devastation was probably no worse than the firebombing of Dresden, Tokyo and other cities. The human toll was not completely understood until much later as the side effects from high doses of radiation became evident over time. The world even agreed at the United Nations to work to prevent such weapons from ever being used again. The record of the United Nations in often causing the exact actions which they were initially attempting to prevent. UNIFIL monitoring Lebanon presumably to prevent Hezballah from rearming the border with Israel is a perfect example. Currently, Hezballah is estimated to have over one-hundred-thousand rockets and guided missiles ready to be used against Israel. Most of these are located south of the Litany River, the region that UNIFIL was to keep weapon free, and we have not even gone into the tunnel and bunker systems Hezballah has built crisscrossing the entire region. So, we would not put much faith in the United Nations preventing proliferation and, even after that, preventing a nuclear exchange leading into a cascade of unpleasant consequences. This brings us back to the fact that every weapon and weapon system ever devised by man became one of the crucial weapons in a later conflict, and usually in a conflict which snowballed into a far larger conflagration than the start ever envisioned.

 

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

Hiroshima Before and After Atomic Bomb

 

We have pointed out that Iran more than likely already has a stock of nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles (chart below) with which to deliver them virtually anywhere on earth. Add on North Korea and there are two nations who could be prime candidates for initiating such a conflict. This has been further evidenced in the frightening commentary made by Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani as part of his Quds Day Speech of Friday, December 14, 2001.


If one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists’ strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality. Of course, you can see that the Americans have kept their eyes peeled and they are carefully looking for even the slightest hint that technological advances are being made by an independent Islamic country. If an independent Islamic country is thinking about acquiring other kinds of weaponry, then they will do their utmost to prevent it from acquiring them. Well, that is something that almost the entire world is discussing right now.

 

This is one of the overlooked items when Rafsanjani is touted as a moderate Iranian leader who is a man of peaceful intentions. Sooner or later, we hope sooner, the media and political climate of the developed Western World will start to understand the meaning of Taqiya and realize that, all too often, some of these leaders are simply not telling them the truth. This also likely applies to the Iranian claim not to possess any nuclear weapons.

 

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

There are already two nuclear powers which face one another across the thin armistice line separating them in the Kashmir region. These are India and Pakistan and these two have had a very violent history starting from the outset when Pakistan was separated from India and tens of millions of people desired or found it necessary to relocate in order to be in a place where they were assured of survival. During the dual exodus, numerous instances of violence were exchanged by the two groups over the weeks it took for the exchange to be completed. India and Pakistan have had several conflicts and almost had a war break out within the past few years. Both nations are known to have nuclear weapons and one can only wonder how these will be kept from being utilized in some future conflict between these two adversaries. Add in the probable existence of nuclear warheads in Iranian hands and their enmity towards Israel as well as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States and any other nation not ruled by Shia Islam. These are all instances where such weapons could be used and should Iran simply fire missiles towards Israel, the Israelis would have very little time to decide, first, if they could with total assuredness intercept all the missiles (possible but unlikely depending on the numbers), secondly, whether the missiles were topped with WMDs (whether nuclear, chemical or biological is irrelevant) and finally, would Israel respond in kind and use nuclear weapons in their response to such an attack. The next question would be whether or not Israel has the ability to destroy her own ballistic missiles should the Iranian attack not contain any WMD materials. The United States would also face a difficult decision should Iran utilize WMD’s, specifically nuclear weapons, against Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States or anybody else who the United States is obligated to defend by treaty or other arrangement. In all honesty, in Israel we not only prefer not to have the United States use any of her military in the defense of Israel, as we wish to depend as totally on our own abilities and not risk other nation’s people including service members.

 

The next argument often heard in such conversations is that the human race has moved beyond using weapons which cause such horrific results and cause such damage. How people can still hold on to such a concept after Saddam Hussein using chemical weapons on his own Kurdish citizens, Bashir al-Assad using chemical weapons and barrel bombs on areas known to have a large concentration of civilians and finally the horror show that was the Islamic State should have convinced people that barbarism is still with us. We could add in Rwanda, Ethiopia under Idi Amin, South Africa and numerous other instances and even prolonged inhumanity which were permitted in this presumably modern world. The truth is that the human race has not moved past the tribal society outlook where anyone outside the ruling tribe is considered a non-entity, a non-person, something totally without worth or concern. Yes, Europe has finally started to figure things out and have become so passive that their societies are crumbling due to low population figures which are far below replacement rates. The United States and Canada would also be in this state if it was not for some subsectors of their populations still reproducing at far larger rates making up for the lower rates amongst much of the population. Israel is comfortably above the replacement rate for which we are very happy. The one item which has been seen to correlate with the lack of sufficient reproductive rates is the secular and anti-religion populations which have adopted the far left and ecologic view that the ‘earth is being murdered by people’ religion. These are the same people who also believe that the United Nations is doing a swell job of keeping the peace and firmly believe that large wars and the use of WMDs is in our past never to arise again. These are the people who suffer from a Pollyannaish outlook that no matter what distressing news they read or are told respond with something totally irresponsible such as, but it is such a nice day, isn’t it? They will do anything to change such a conversation as they refuse to admit that things could even become horrific.

 

Does anyone honestly believe that nowhere in the world there exists a potential leader who would use nuclear weapons? If so, why? We have witnessed chemical weapons, nerve gas, barrel bombs, suicide bombers, passenger aircraft filled with people used as building torpedoes, vehicles driven into crowds, terrorism of various varieties and attacks made on places of worship during services to maximize the carnage. How none of these register with so many people is amazing and frightening. These are often the people voting for governments who might actually have to face such difficulties, and the rest are hoping they choose well. With what we have witnessed and some of the bluster coming from often unelected rulers, it would appear that believing that there is little if any chance of a nuclear exchange or a one-sided use of nuclear weapons would appear foolish. There is no real difference between using a nuclear weapon and the use of other WMDs, especially biological agents which do not respect borders. For those shaking their heads at the use of biologic agents, do we have to remind the world of the anthrax attacks, many being faked but there were quite a number which proved to be real. What if instead of anthrax they had access to use a mutant form of plague combined with the flu such that it had a two week or months long incubation of certain viruses and no known treatment while being completely resistant to antibiotics as viruses often are. Such a biologic agent would spread far and wide before the initial victims ever showed symptoms which would be the initial stage of any sort of warning. There are numerous nations who still have very active biological warfare research facilities making what would probably be our worst nightmare were they to ever be unleashed upon the world. With some actually having and potentially intending to use such weapons, why would anybody believe such people would bat an eye at the use of nuclear weapons being used if they were in control of such weaponry. The probability that there will be a nuclear exchange somewhere on earth within the next decade is, in our estimation, probably between one in ten to almost even odds.

 

The real question will be whether or not the nation initially attacked or any of their allies have such weapons and will use them in a response. Were one nation to utilize nuclear weapons against an enemy, it is possible that the victim would decide to take the strike and hope for the best responding with normal ordinance and not resort to using nuclear weapons in their actions. The odds of such is rather low as there are bound to be some anger issues involved in the decision-making process and the ability to resist going nuclear would be a very difficult idea to swallow. This is where the problem comes into play. Let us say that there is some overly aggressive nation’s leader who drank way too many espresso coffees and decided to launch three or four nuclear tipped missiles at an enemy nations fifteen-hundred miles distant. The struck nation returns the favor using ten to twelve of their nuclear weapons. The initiating country, in the fog of events and war, claims that the nation they initiated the attack upon had done something which caused the attack such as attempted an assassination and they make this plea to their allies who now join in a larger nuclear attack of the initial victim. The newly attacked nation knows nothing of any attempted assassination and only knows that they have been struck by missiles and several WMDs from now four or five nations, so they call on their allies, that is how these things work, right? By the time everything is straightened out, half the world is missing a large number of its citizens and their infrastructure is mostly destroyed. This is not an absurd scenario any more than some terrorist in the Balkans shooting some relatively unimportant but favored Archduke and his wife could launch the main powers of the day to wage a war to end all wars. As has been stated often enough, wars have been initiated by lesser acts. The world will have a war where one of the main weapons used fairly early in the conflict will be nuclear weapons, and most likely thermonuclear devices which can destroy even most modern metropolises. It is entirely possible that Iran might test Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s that, “the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything.” Israel may only be the size of New Jersey or half the size of Estonia, but that is still beyond the area of devastation which nuclear weapons are theoretically capable of causing immediate destruction. Granted, were such a weapon dropped centrally on the Tel Aviv metropolitan region, that would potentially murder close to half the Israeli population, but the nation would likely still be viable with most of the regular military remaining intact. How Israel would respond would be completely dependent upon who would be the Prime Minister and the members of the Knesset. The bravado that such an attack upon Israel would immediately result in the decimation of Iran is likely just that, bravado for the consumption and responses of the media and people.

 

The other item is that Israel would not have any real desire to cause such upon the people of Iran who actually have little say in who rules their nation and choosing those entrusted with such decisions. Yes, we realize that Iran holds elections for their legislature and President. We also know that only candidates approved by the Guardian Council are permitted to be on the ballot and they do not have anything such as a write-in candidate. Whomever the Guardian Council decides is eligible to run for the parliament and for President are permitted to be on the ballot and all the rest, well, not so much. There are many who believe, including a sizable amount of the citizenry of Iran, that the nation utilizes the Joseph Stalin philosophy for vote tabulating in that it is not so much who votes that counts as who counts the votes that matters. This was evidenced in 2009 with the people contesting the reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Green uprising. We also were made aware and realized exactly how brutal the ruling elite in Iran could be with how they handled the protests and the levels of violence dealt to the demonstrators. This was a peek inside the Iranian leadership and their concept that they are the law and operate above the law. They also provided proving evidence of their general lack of concern for human life. This is a combination which could prove to be the exact dangerous groups with power to initiate a war with nuclear tipped ballistic missiles, with the remaining question merely being against whom.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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January 29, 2019

Why Israel Arab Conflict is Unsolvable

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:59 AM
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We sometimes have heard that solving the Israel Arab conflict cannot be that difficult if only Israel would sacrifice for peace. We wonder, does sacrifice for peace include returning the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt? That is Israel surrendering an area more than two and three-quarters the size of the nation of Israel itself. Somehow, the world appears to have forgotten this small fact. When Israel made peace with Egypt, Egypt refused to take the return of Gaza and disassociated from the people who had lived under Egyptian rule for almost twenty years before the Six Day War. Perhaps Israel should be thankful that Egypt did not demand that Israel accept the population of the Sinai Peninsula as Egypt really just wanted the oil wells anyway. Then Israel made a peace with Jordan and offered them the return of the “West Bank” (Shomron or Judea and Samaria) and eastern Jerusalem, Jordan refused them both but also disassociated from the Arabs residing there who had Jordanian citizenship, but that was cancelled. A great number of those residing in the area Jordan refused included people forcefully relocated by Jordan across the Jordan River into the region left to Israel. Jordan has refused to accept the return of any part of the people in the Shomron including those they relocated there in order to Arabize the region beyond anything Israel could ignore and so as to cause difficulties for Israel in the future. Then there is Syria with whom Israel is still at war but with whom they had an armistice agreement. That agreement had been breached, broken and shattered by Syrian and Iranian forces firing into Israel with snipers, launching rockets into Israel, flying armed drones over Israel and firing anti-tank missiles at IDF and civilian vehicles on the Golan Heights, yet people demand that Israel return the Golan Heights and change this to all of these projectiles aimed across the northern one-third of Israel at farmers, motorists, towns and cities just as was the case before the Six Day War when Syria owned the region. The difference is that weapons have become more accurate, have increased range, and carry larger warheads which would all but vacate the entire region within Israel, as it would become unlivable. These are the facts which, despite some debate about them, are basically uncontroversial. Finally, there is the demand that Israel returns Palestine to the Arab Palestinians.

 

Israel from Mandate to Six Day War to Currently after Gaza Disengagement

Israel from Mandate to Six Day War
to Currently after Gaza Disengagement

 

Let us start with the last one first as it is the easiest to discuss and the least of the actual problems. When was there this Arab nation of Palestine that Israel stole from these Arabs? Simple answer, it never existed beyond being the name of a region given to it by the Romans when they dispersed the Jews, decided that Judea and Jerusalem were far too Jewish, and changed the names of the province, that is Roman province long before any Arab stepped into these lands and definitely not a nation unto itself. Judea became Syria Palaestina, while Jerusalem was renamed to Aelia Capitolina. The British and League of Nations referred to the region from which Britain carved out Jordan east of the Jordan River and Israel west of the Jordan River was referred to with its Roman nomenclature of Palestine, which was still a region and not a nation and from which two nations were actually carved. There has never been any nation named Palestine and Aelia Capitolina was a provincial capital which was abandoned within the first year as the people left to handle this region return to Damascus and performed their duties from there. Even as late as 1867, as reported in Mark Twain’s writings in “The Innocents Abroad,” or “The New Pilgrims’ Progress,” in the section on his visit to the holy lands, the description was less than flattering and told of a land mostly abandoned to weeds and scrub brush with hardly any inhabitation outside of Jerusalem, and even his commentary about Jerusalem was less than flattering. One can only wonder what Mark Twain would have to say now, just over one-hundred-fifty years later, seeing the Tel Aviv metropolitan region and the others including Jerusalem; they are all a far cry from the desolate little sleepy region where lethargy appeared to be the rule except for a few intrepid farmers, possibly the earliest Zionists who set to work draining swamps, channeling water and irrigating the lands starting farms as soon as they arrived. But that is claimed to have little bearing on the modern situation, because the reasons that these problems exist are not of concern to the world, it is something else.

 

The claim that Israel must sacrifice for peace is ludicrous. There are so many real reasons that peace has not been reached which have nothing to do with Israel past the simple fact that she exists. The Khartoum Resolution of September 1, 1967, and its three no’s, “no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel,” has been the Arab position. Arafat, then Abbas, were permitted to negotiate providing they swore to accept the other two no’s and work towards the day when Islam defeats the Jews and Israel is no more. There is a small problem which is stated only in Arabic, a language which the Western media appear incapable of finding a translator, even Google, that any peace would simply be the first peace to be followed soon thereafter by a new round of terrorism, a new set of demands, and a new peace process, which if it should ever reach a peace, would be followed a few months later by another explosion of terror, new demands, peace talks, peace, violent terror, new demands, you get the picture. The aim is stated to destroy Israel in stages if necessary, but the end result is to destroy Israel. The only solution, you could call it the Arab final solution, is for the Jews leaving by whatever means are necessary, including exhuming the dead to take with them, and all of Israel belonging to the Arabs, because that is the way the world works and the Quran demands such. No Arab or Muslim land can ever fall under somebody else ruling it, and most certainly not the accursed Jew. That is the base position from which the Arab world had negotiated since the first day of Israeli existence when the armies of over a half dozen Arab nations poured over the borders, some were already operating in the Arab neighborhoods and farms inside of Israel that morning, and set to destroy all of Israel and every Jew along with it. The Arab war of 1948 was best described by Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League at that time who stated, “It will be a war of annihilation. It will be a momentous massacre in history that will be talked about like the massacres of the Mongols or the Crusades.” His reference was to the Islamic defeat of these two wars, though their victory over the Mongols came after nearly a century of Mongol rule over large parts of their Arabia. That was their intentions then and those are still their intentions now.

 

There is a dirty little secret which most, if not all, the people from the United States State department to the European Union to the numerous European national leaderships, to the co-conspirators at the United Nations to the several United Nations Agencies and virtually every two-faced, double-talking expert on the Middle East do not speak. This little secret is that it is not Israel which is preventing the making of a peace agreement. They know the Arabs turned down half of the lands west of the Jordan River in late November of 1947 when the United Nations offered just such a deal and the Zionist congress agreed but the Arab League steadfastly refused as they were going to wipe those snotty little Jews off the map a few months later, or so they believed. Egypt was offered Gaza and Jordan was offered the West Bank, both declined to retake lands they knew did not belong to them plus they were to be used to destroy Israel as the plan was already hatched. The Arabs were offered over ninety percent with land swaps and Eastern Jerusalem towards the end of the Clinton Presidency and this was refused by Yasser Arafat. The Arabs were offered over ninety percent with land swaps and Eastern Jerusalem towards the end of the George W. Bush Presidency and this was refused by Mahmoud Abbas. The Trump “Deal of the Century,” which century might be how long it will take to formulate, has already been refused by Mahmoud Abbas without seeing the offer. Abbas has all but told President Trump to take a hike and is swearing he will refuse any peace deal which will be presented by President Trump. Well, that is so much for and chance for peace in the immediate future. Wait, you say, how about President Trump working with Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia? Well, Jordan has refused him, twice that we have counted, Egypt has turned him down unceremoniously and in no uncertain terms regarding Gaza, and Saudi Arabia backed away from any agreements they had made when it became a part of the deal that they take in some of the Arab Palestinians.

 

The problem comes down to a simple problem, what to do with the Arab Palestinians, not just those living within Israel but the over five-million so-called Palestinian refugees. These refugees numbers just over six-hundred-thousand in 1949 at the end of the Arab War to Annihilate the Jews which was renamed the Israeli War of Independence so it would appear that Israel started a war for their independence and not they gained it legally and the Arabs attacked with the intent of wiping the lands clean. These refugees had children and unlike any other refugees, these children became refugees. These children had children who had children who have had or some day will have children who will have children and so-on ad infinitum. That is how over three-quarters of a century six-hundred-thousand refugees become over five-million refugees instead of a problem already solved. One need understand that the Arab refugees, far from anything to do with Israel, are not handled under the regular United Nations Refugee Agency, they are handled under the UNRWA, the agency which President Trump ended United States monetary support. The rest of the world jumped up and are supporting them for the time being. This energetic rush to aid anything to harm Israel will cool and UNRWA will be making desperate calls for aid from anywhere and demanding that the United States pay it fair share. You have to love all the uses that the political types get out of the phrase, “pay their fair share.” You hear it about taxes, “We just want the (super) rich to pay their fair share,” or the United Nations and its myriad of agencies whenever the United States defunds them, “We just want the United States, the richest nation in the world, to pay their fair share,” or the newest version, “Making sure foreign investors pay their fair share,” and after any oil spill or ecological disaster we hear about the company which has already suffered a blow to their income with the losses incurred by the event of the ecological disaster, yet we hear, last one, we promise, “We just insist that aggrieved company pay their fair share to clean up the effects of the disaster.”

 

There will be no solution to the Israel Arab Conflict for the foreseeable future. The world will need to be reawakened to the small problem caused by the Quranic promise that the Muslims will rule the world and Islam and the surrender to Allah will become the universal faith which every person on the planet will come to follow. The Muslims, on the strength and timing of the Arabs as they emerged from the Arabian Peninsula and conquered much of the Middle East including the lands under Persian Rule and across northern Africa taking the lands of Egypt and the Berbers, crossed into Europe at Gibraltar and were finally turned back by George the Hammer Martel at the battle of Tours. They took the Levant and were stopped by the imposing walls of Constantinople. The Ottomans made two attempts at Europe with both being turned back at the gates of Vienna with one being accomplished almost completely to the merit of the King of Poland, John III Sobieski, who commanded the Holy Roman Army plus the entirety of the Polish Army leaving his nation unprotected and depending on the promises of the other leaders that they would leave his lands safe. Surprisingly, they kept their word. These were the past attempts by the forces of Islam to conquer the world and turn every knee to bend before Allah. This means that there have been at least three or four attempts by Islam to conquer Europe, but Christianity stood and held. When the Crusaders would take Jerusalem, they often would murder the remaining Muslims and a fair percentage of the Jews. When the Muslims would take Jerusalem, they would murder most of the Christians and a fair percentage of Jews. The number of Jews usually was proportional to the casualties and amount of time and effort was required to take Jerusalem. The Arabs desire taking Jerusalem and making it completely Jew free. They wish to do this to the entirety of Israel. Their plan does not necessarily include any rescue for the Jews. They do not plan on making such necessary. The terrorists scream slogans calling for the eradication of the Jews and the Jewish State. This is their desired solution to the Arab Israel Conflict. They refuse to make peace because their solution does not include peace unless it is rest in peace, and I doubt their Jewish victims will even get that if they were ever to succeed. The Israelis know the score but the world would rather pretend that the Jews are the problem. Our best guess is old habits are very hard to break, and much of the world has been blaming the Jew for every misfortune for so long that they just simply fell back on the stock reason that there is a problem, the Jew did it. The only thing the Jews did was reclaim their ancestral homelands, the lands and city, Jerusalem, which they have prayed over, prayer for, prayed about almost every single day of their lives. We have been saying Jerusalem, next year we will celebrate this day in Jerusalem. Even a recalcitrant Jew knows the desire for next year in Jerusalem. Now that it can be right now in Jerusalem, we, as Jews, are not returning to dreams when we hold the prize in our hands. That goes for Jerusalem and every part of Eretz Yisroel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 5, 2018

Crossroads

 

The world is spiraling perceivably out of control. Europe is reducing itself into an echo of its once dominance. Canada has begun her graceful exit from anything more than a footnote. Russia is desperately holding on to things from her periods past. China is the bursting powerhouse without an ample provider of direction or purpose. Japan is as she most often has been outside of World War II, a region which defies definition and insulated by her restrictive immigration policies. South America is still most often between periods of economic power followed by leftist folly bankrupting once powerful nations and eventually back to productivity only to sink once again. Argentina and Venezuela are two prominent examples. Cuba is relatively impotent with only one thing to offer, proximity to the United States. Mexico has about the same situation with slightly more open governance. The Far East sits in the shadow of China simply sleeping hoping not to catch the giant to the north’s attention, except for North Korea which is led by an unbalanced megalomaniac. Still, the most they could prove to be is a small blip before being crushed if they ever did attack anyone. This leaves three main powers, one established, one growing and one for the distant future. The established is, of course, the United States, the growing are the Islamic powers and the future power is central and southern Africa. All of these are currently swirling towards a series of collisions.

 

We thought the main front would once again be Europe, but that assessment required being reconsidered. Europe will be where the initial confrontations will come, but the secular left will simply turn over and surrender. Should there be a last stand for Christianity within Europe, it will come from the nations of Eastern Europe where being under the choking hold of Communism until around 1989, their freedom brought to them a return to their former religious beliefs and a reestablishing of the Eastern Orthodox Church. Just as the remains of the Roman Empire was the Eastern Roman Empire, which was also known as Byzantium or Byzantine Empire, Europe is once again split along a central line where Western Europe is sliding into a coma while Eastern Europe is still awakening from a long oppression. Will the confrontation be any different this time or will Eastern Europe prove just as incapable opposition to an Islamic wave attempting to take control of Europe. The immigrant influx of Muslims from northern Africa and Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other Middle East countries with oppressive governance is slowly consuming Western Europe where they are being welcomed without any controls or real opposition. The initial laying of the welcome mat was placed out by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany who promised to take up to 800,000 refugees from the Middle East and was almost immediately inundated by waves of immigrants. As has been noted by ourselves and numerous others, the vast majority of these immigrants are men between 18 and 50 unaccompanied by wives or children. Such an influx historically has been called an invasion, not normal immigration.

 

Eastern European nations have wisely closed their borders and are only allowing immigrants who board trains which pass through their territories to ride straight on through and are refused from exiting the trains. Many, even the majority are heading for Germany and Sweden as these are the two nations with the highest support structure for unemployed people with minimal requirements as these immigrants are not seeking jobs, they seek the guaranteed good life compared to their former homes and imposing Islamic rule on their new homes. This would appear to be not an advantageous change as it would bring to their new homes the exact same systems which proved so disastrous to their former nations. Still, that is what they are comfortable with living under and it would provide them with the comfort of the imposing of a system which is close to identical to their former homes. Freedom is a burdensome formula under which to live as it makes each person responsible for their own survival and allows them to choose their own path and requires effort. This is what resulted from the Judeo-Christian ethic which brought the modern democratic nations into the industrial age and beyond making them the leaders in technology, science, and weaponry allowing Europe to be the most powerful force in the world opening up much of the road to a modern existence through their spreading over the entire planet during the Age of Discovery where the European nations established empires spreading throughout the world leaving a web of commerce and bringing great wealth to the Europeans. This spread technology from Europe to the rest of the world advancing many cultures from barely beyond hunter-gatherers or early agricultural age into the modern age providing these populations with great opportunities if they were able to receive education permitting their understanding.

 

After a pair of World Wars ravaged Europe, their age of colonization came to an end. The last remaining colonies slowly demanded and took their independence from their European masters. Since this end of the age, European society has largely refuted their Christianity and adopted the newest religion of secular humanism which places the onus for the destruction of the Earth on their own society and its use of fossil fuels. They believe in many cases that humankind is a blight on the planet and that the planet would be so much better off without people. This is represented by their negative reproduction rates which are well below replacement levels. This is the sign of a society which has entered into its death throes. This is also the main driving reasoning behind the opening of their borders to refugees in the hopes they will replace the children they never had in the work force. The problem is that a fairly large percentage of the immigrants are not coming to take jobs as much as to collect benefits while plotting to impose Islamic rule over Europe. This was what we had thought might lead to an initial confrontation between the Islamic conquerors and the European indigenous population in defending their free societies. The indigenous Europeans in Western Europe do not appear to be interested in retaining their former free society and are willing to allow the Islamic takeover of their nations providing it does not alter their life as the leaders. They are in for a great surprise as the leadership of these nations will be amongst the initial casualties when Islam versus European free society comes to a head. The struggle for retaining their freedom will be left to the small but not insignificant children, that is, providing they do not just sell out and join the Islamic push in order to go along to get along. They may be in for a surprise when their conversion reaches a point where they are tested. Our advice for those who believe this would be a wise choice, start now memorizing the Quran and attending the Mosque which is the largest within your city or area and familiarize yourselves with the teachings of the Imams.

 

Canada and the United States are just as vulnerable as is Europe to the immigration challenge. We recently read a disturbing article reporting on the progress of Islamist interests within Canada and their alignment with the far left in what will prove to be a self-defeating alliance for the far left. This same alliance exists throughout much of the free world including Europe, especially Britain and the European Union, the United States and Canada. There had been such an alliance in Israel and there are remnants of the effects of their joining in many leftist policies especially those who continue to support the “Two State Solution” which requires surrendering large portions of lands to the Palestinian Authority (PA) in exchange for promises of peace. This concept has lost much validity as many from the PA and others from within the society currently ruled by Fatah which controls the PA governance; actually, Mahmoud Abbas is the President for Life in the thirteenth year of his four-year term which began in 2005. Even the majority of those on the left and even the far leftists have realized that doing so would not bring peace and only serve to arm the Islamist interest with a permanent base from which to work to destroy Israel and murder her people through terrorism and launching rockets into Israeli cities. This was brought to the fore by Hamas after they took control of Gaza in a bloody coup replacing the PA after which they have worked steadily attempting to produce as much destruction onto any part of Israel which they could terrorize. This has led to a number of wars which Israel decided would be limited engagements which has only served to provide Hamas with the feeling of invincibility and empowered them even further. This has led to an ever-increasing support for Hamas which is reported to have topped 80% with the youth coming from their education system, more of an indoctrination system, leading the charge to destroy Israel and support the Islamist propaganda and their Islamist supremacist ideology. This has been behind the constant rioting and launching of incendiary balloons, kites and even attempted use of live birds such as the falcon in the picture below. The use and murder of such a beautiful and proud bird is just a further representation of the contempt for life held by these Islamist terrorists. One of the messages broadcast by Hamas run television includes a quote stating, “From the Al-Qassam Brigades to the Zionist soldiers: The Al-Qassam Brigades love death more than you love life.” This broadcast is just one of the times this message has been used as it boosts the followers often giving them the needed boost to commit suicide attacks against Israelis.

 

Dead Falcon Found in Tree with Twine and Incendiary Device Attached

Dead Falcon Found in Tree with Twine and Incendiary Device Attached

 

So, that concludes our quick and broad summary of the world which will be involved in any future conflict and now we will try to look into our crystal ball and look into the future. The threat of Islam is going to continue to grow. The world very well could be in the leading edge of their next attempt by Islam to enlarge their regions of control. Their initial conquest came from 622 AD through to 750 AD as shown in the top map reaching as far as Tours, France before being stopped by Charles the Hammer Martel. This was how their empire remained with their next evolution coming from within when a small tribe from northeastern Turkey known as the Ottomans which led to the Ottoman Empire shown in the middle map. The Spanish Inquisition was responsible for the pushing of Islam from the Iberian Peninsula in 1492, the same date as Columbus making his initial voyage to the New World. The Ottoman Empire replaced the Caliphate and faced a series of wars which ate away at their empire as shown in the bottom map and which was finally destroyed when they allied with the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and Germany in World War I. This led to the Mandate System and the carving up of the Ottoman Empire, Austrian-Hungarian Empire and Germany creating modern Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa including Israel which was granted their set aside in the San Remo Conference which defined the Mandate System which was adopted by the League of Nations and then taken up for enforcement by Article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

 

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

 

 

Ottoman Empire Ascending includes Golden Age of Islam

Ottoman Empire Ascending includes Golden Age of Islam

 

 

Ottoman Empire in Decline 1800 through 1914 and Start of World War I

Ottoman Empire in Decline 1800 through 1914 and Start of World War I

 

Now back to the future and looking at what the next attempt at expansion of Islam will provide or what it might cost. There are a few points which need to be stated to provide more of a background which includes the United States mainly. The initial conflict began under the most isolationist President, Thomas Jefferson, who when facing ever higher tributes demands from the Barbary Pirates sent the Navy and Marines who forced an agreement ending the intercepting of United States shipping and most of the pirating and taking of sailors as slaves of European ships as well. After the war with England in 1812, the Barbary Pirates decided that the United States would be weakened and started taking sailors once more. This led to the Second Barbary Wars which again ended this practice. Then, as part of the Spanish American War, the United States faced attacks from the Moro natives in the Philippines which were Muslim. This revolt was put down by General Blackjack Pershing who was reputed, but unproven, to have used some questionable tactics. President George H. W. Bush (Bush I) engaged in a war with Saddam Hussein in Iraq War I in the 1990s. Then President George W. Bush (Bush II) engaged in wars with Islamic nations after the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in Afghanistan and once again in Iraq where this time Saddam Hussein was overthrown. Then there were the attacks during President Barack Obama continuing in Afghanistan and then including Libya after the Benghazi attack on the Consulate and the urging of the overthrow of Sunni governments in what was called the Arab Spring which more resembled the Arab Winter by the time it completely failed in Syria and Egypt ended up removing the resultant Muslim Brotherhood led government after the overthrow of President Mubarak. President Trump has continued with these interventions and aided the Kurds in their fight with the Islamic State. These have awakened the Islamic nations with two centers of power within Islam which are again fighting one another. This is another conflict between the main groups in Islam, the Sunni, and their longstanding opposition which consists of approximately 10% of Islam, the Shiites. The Sunni center of power is held in a loose alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt while the Shiite center of power is Iran which still sees themselves as the modern Persian Empire. Iran is allied with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezballah in Lebanon and who are allied to back Bashir al-Assad in his civil war in Syria which was a result of the Arab Spring efforts of President Obama. Iran is also supporting the Houthi revolt to take control of Yemen. The Iranian aim has been to establish a Shiite Crescent across the Middle East using Iran, Syria and Lebanon so they have connections to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea shown in the map below. Part of the Iranian tactic is to envelop Saudi Arabia from Iran to the north and Yemen to the south. Iran also is attempting to take control of two vital waterways, the Straight of Hormuz and the Straight of Bab-el-Mandeb. The first controls the shipping lane for most of the oil from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait while the second would control the exit from the Red Sea controlling the Suez Canal as well as the Israeli southern port of Eilat. This would provide Iran with the ability to cut off all trade between the Middle East and Europe as well as cutting off the European and Israeli shipping lanes to Asia.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

Whether Islam attempts to once again gain lands by taking control of Europe and possibly then attempting to wrest control of Africa and then being enabled to take on the Americas, specifically the United States, will depend heavily on which nation ends up calling the shots. Should it be Saudi Arabia, then the main conflict will likely be within Europe while if it is Iran there is a definite possibility that it will become a world conflict. The initial conflict will be between Iran and Saudi Arabia which will center on the oil fields in the northeast of Saudi Arabia and the control of the Two Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina along the Red Sea coast in the west of Saudi Arabia. Should Iran take these two cities, they can attempt to declare that Shiite Islam is the ascending power in Islam and play themselves as the strong horse hoping to have the majority of Muslims to change from Sunni and adopt Shiite Islam. Such a conflict in Islam could deplete both sides to the point that neither would be capable of mounting any serious threat to the remainder of the world and Islam will return to rest for the foreseeable future. The Islamic leaders of Iran have an extremist and expansionist view of their place in the world which was expressed by the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini which has been carried forward by Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Their visions of world conquest are probably considered to be insane and in the developed world, such concepts have been relegated to the trashcan of history. Unfortunately, in both Sunni and Shiite Islam, they believe the promise in the Quran that Islam must become the only religious belief held by every person on Earth. They believe that world conquest is still possible despite the complete failure to accomplish such a feat by even the most powerful empires in the past. This now viewed insane concept is not seen as such within Islam; to the believers this is the inevitable future of our world. Many an Imam in Islam is currently preaching that Islam is on the verge of their final push which will result in their finally realizing their inevitable prize, the world and every person within believing their version of Islam, be it Sunni or Shiite. For the record, there are numerous Muslims who do not believe or even care about world conquest. Many of these are at the forefront of the Islamic struggle to allow Islam to evolve and learn to coexist with others. One such leader is Egyptian President Sisi who has delivered speeches before the governing board and Imams who are the instructors at the leading university of Islamic thought, Al-Azhar University.

 

What is their struggle? There are two very different and separate streams of thought in Islam. These result because of the two very different visions written by Muhammad, with the first verses which were universalist in accepting others and coexistence written in Mecca and the supremacist and world conquest warlike writings in Medina. We give a short introduction into the reasons and there are a plethora of links within the comments including links to a Quran with the verses in chronological order all in our article and the comments at Which Quran, Mecca or Medina? Should the reformers succeed in having Islam return to the original writings in the Quran, the world will flourish and the many religions will all work in greater harmony. Should they fail, then there will be a constant state of conflict between Islam and everyone else. That may sound pessimistic, which it is, but just because it is pessimistic does not mean it is not a valid truth. Islam, as currently interpreted using what is called abrogation, where the newest verses overwrite the older verses making the Medina Quranic writings supreme over the earlier Mecca Quranic verses. This was used by the 10th century Islamic scholar Hibatullāh who listed two-hundred-thirty-seven instances of abrogation, with the verse 9:5, known as the so-called “Verse of the Sword”, which alone accounted for almost half of the abrogated verses. Later Quranic interpreters had disagreements with his findings and often with one another. If, instead of using abrogation the Muslims were to adopt instead an originalist view and interpretation of the Quran, then Islam would be able to exist in peace with the world. Until, if such is ever to be, Islam does away with abrogation adopting originalist Quranic verses, Islam will forever be at war with the rest of humankind. This actually has Biblical beginnings, which surprises many. Islam is said to be the religion founded by the generations tracing their origins to Ishmael. In Genesis Chapter 16 verses 11 and 12 we learn of Ishmael and the way he is described is how his prodigy will also be found to act, as is the way of the Old Testament. These two verses read as follows:


11 And the angel of the Lord said to her, “Behold, you will conceive and bear a son, and you shall name him Ishmael, for the Lord has heard your affliction.
12 And he will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be upon all, and everyone’s hand upon him, and before all his brothers he will dwell.”

This was the Biblical curse of a sort which was placed upon the descendants of Ishmael and it is one which has proven to have been validated by history. This also is something which does not bode well for the future. Islam, we must remember, is similar in one way to Judaism, both are religions which also have a complete political system defined for the adherents to follow. The Old Testament tells the Jews, the Israelites, that they would rule over the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, and from the Litani River to the Wadi of Egypt. These were to be our eventual final borders and we were to treat the stranger with respect as long as they lived in peace and obeyed the Noahic Code. We were to reside and serve Hashem and live our lives as an example and for as long as we lived an exemplary life, then we would live at peace. This would become possible once the Temple was built after King David’s reign with his son, King Solomon, tasked to build the Temple. Obviously, there were problems back then and everything collapsed. The rest is, as they say, history. What will be interesting is that the coming Great War, should that be the fate of the world, Israel will not be at its center and very possibly, if we are very careful and live as Hashem desires, we will not be even included in that coming disaster. Where this coming conflict will break out is difficult to predict. If we were pressed and had to choose such a point, we would think very likely the initial wars which lead to the coming horrors have already begun and surround Saudi Arabia. Then there are the infiltrations of Europe, Canada and starting in the United States. Of the Western World, the initial conflict started with the riots in Paris and across France, the terror attacks throughout Western nations, and the culture clashes which have led to an explosion of crimes against women with most being of a sexual nature. These could easily lead to vigilante actions which could escalate into a general societal state of warfare across Europe. Canada, we fear, will fall with barely a peep where the central west and northernmost territories possibly forming their own country. The United States is having its own problems currently and Islam would not be able to take over the United States through infiltration, as there would be a revolt against such politically. The so-called silent majority is a far larger section of the populace and would take control of the government to address any threat ending possibly the entrance of advents of Islam if this were required. But first, the United States must first survive its current divide between the leftist and the conservatives, particularly the Constitutionalists, often referred to as populists. Whatever the future, with any good fortune our little corner of the world will be left alone and ignored by any and all the possible violence, we have enough problems already. As for the rest of the world, well, we doubt the next great conflict will begin in China or anywhere within Asia, or at least that is our thoughts.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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