Beyond the Cusp

February 17, 2017

Let’s Talk Middle East Conflict, Minus One Overly Blamed Nation

 

We are going to do something which the average person would believe impossible, discuss conflicts in the Middle East, which includes North Africa and the entirety that goes by the initials MENA, without mentioning Israel other than this once. Yes, that is not only possible but necessary such that people can learn how solving the Palestinian issue would not bring peace to one of the most troubled areas on the planet. There are a number of separate wars going on in Libya alone. In the capital city of Tripoli the government’s forces hold a little more than the offices of the Parliament, the President and the other government buildings and their residences, and only because they reside very close to this central area in Tripoli. There are usually a minimum of two rebel groups at any time fighting the government as well as one another. Often there are more than two as these clans believe that they should be the ones running the country and that Libya is their personal playground. These clans also fight against any terrorists who they believe are trying to take over their areas which they actually do control. The terrorists fight to retain their training grounds. Benghazi is also an open warfare zone with no real governance which controls the entire city but it is the second largest concentration of government military forces. As the government forces do control the port of Tripoli there does exist some trade which is mostly necessities as well as arms and ammunition to keep the government in control. Further, Benghazi, Tobruk, Surt and the other major ports are often changing hands as different groups will exert the necessary force to take the ports when they are expecting shipments from their arms merchants. As some European and many Middle East and Asian arms dealers are making a fair profit, the risks of doing business with the different clans and terror groups operating in Libya is worth the risks involved. Needless to say, the violence in Libya does not always stay in Libya; it often crosses borders into Egypt, Algeria, Chad, Niger and even the Sudan. One of the main arms providers is the Sudanese government and arms dealers taking side action arming the Sudanese neighboring nations including Libya but excluding South Sudan as this is not permitted by the Sudanese government.

 

There is a very good reason that the Sudanese government has made the providing of arms to South Sudan a capital offence, they are still fighting a war and committing a slow genocide against the Christians and Animists and act as if nobody in the world has recognized South Sudan as a separate nation. As long as the world, including those who have recognized South Sudan as a separate nation, do nothing of consequence to protest the nascent country from its far stronger and well-armed former rulers, the killing will continue. There have been some troops provided by the African Union. The United Nations also has sent troops to South Sudan. The problem is what is really necessary would be an entire army, which is not what has been sent. Back in 2013 the United States took what it claimed was measures to assure the genocide in South Sudan would be relieved by allocating one-hundred-fifty Marines and a few aircraft to the Horn of Africa from where they were to be capable of evacuating people under threat in South Sudan. As is said repeatedly in Bill Cosby’s routine on Noah, “Right!” Our new United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated this week that refugees were fleeing cities and towns and that “The security situation continues to deteriorate in parts of the country and the consequent impact of this ongoing conflict and violence, has reached catastrophic proportions for civilians,” A United Nations report stated, “The rise of militias under the loose command of the SPLA or rebel commanders is spreading the fragmentation and dislocation of its territories, which risk, if this trend continues, remaining out of any government control for years to come.” The United Nations further reports that the numbers of refugees currently seeking relief is beyond one and a half million.

 

Now we can slide over to Somalia which is only a real country on maps for lack of a better means of describing the area. Like Libya there is no actual ruling government but instead a series of gangs ruling their territories with iron fists and warring with each other trying to increase their domain. The people have to make sure they are aware of which gang is currently ruling their block of homes as that will also define where they are allowed to shop and who they may visit. Crossing from one region to the next carries varying degrees of danger. Some of the gangs along the shoreline engage in pirating for a living seeking pleasure yachts, merchant ships and even passing warships which are traveling without escort. These pirates have varying levels of gall living by the code “no guts, no glory.” They have attacked European, Asian, Australian, Canadian and American shipping and anybody else who comes within their range. Their method is to use a larger ship which remains out of sight but relatively close and smaller craft attack the target vessels and attempt to board and commandeer the ship then demanding ransom for the ship, crew and cargo. They check the cargo for anything they might desire or need to keep for themselves and will take any weapons they find an board the ships they take. There has been some degree of international efforts to bring this to an end but for the most part ships take their own risks coming out of the Red Sea after passing through the Suez Canal.

 

Of course that means they need to make their way through the Bab el-Mandeb Straights without being struck by Houthis shelling out of Yemen. The Houthi rebels in Yemen are Iranian backed and attempting to conquer all of Yemen to give Iran a base from which to attack Saudi Arabia from the south. This will come in very handy should Iran decide to attack Saudi Arabia from Iraq and the north mainly the northeast of Saudi Arabia which has the majority of Shiite Muslims as well as most of the oil fields. Additionally, Iran has made friends with Qatar and has made overtures claiming than Oman and Bahrain are actually breakaway Iranian provinces. Much like China keeps threatening that they will one day rejoin Taiwan to the mainland as it is simply a breakaway province, Iran makes the same claims on Oman and Bahrain. Bahrain has a Sunni monarch and a predominantly Shiite population. During the Arab Spring (boy was that a joke and a complete disaster from the word go thanks in part to President Obama who had a hand in these failed revolts with great assistance from Hillary Clinton and the European Union) the Shiites in Bahrain revolted and things appeared to be heading for real troubles, that was until Saudi Arabia used the multi-lane causeway highway to send troops to quell the revolt. The Shiites left their Mosques on Friday all revved up to overthrow the monarch when they found tanks, armored personnel carriers and heavily armed Saudi Arabian troops at both ends of the block so everybody calmed down and went home. Sure there were a few short outbursts of violence which were immediately quelled. The entire Arab Spring in Bahrain ended that Friday with barely a whimper. Similarly, the Shiites in the northeast of Saudi Arabia thought about staging an uprising but were quickly persuaded to remain calm. That thought of rising up was so short it did not even make a single news cycle.

 

Egypt is next on out little tour and is currently largely complacent. They had their Arab Spring and threw out military rule and President Mubarak and replaced him with the predicted Muslim Brotherhood candidate, President Morsi. President Morsi was advised by Turkish President Erdogan to take a slow and steady approach to Islamizing Egypt but paid that no heed. He took off on a radical program of change trying almost overnight to make Egypt a Muslim Brotherhood run totalitarian hellhole. This was met with a public already in revolt mode and they rose up again and demanded Morsi’s head. General of the Army Sisi took the hint and removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power and held new elections. Having the most recognized name in Egypt and having just saved the day, surprisingly Sisi who had stepped down from General of the Army ran and won the Presidency of Egypt. So Egypt is now safely back under military rule for intents and purposes and appears happy to be so. The one problem is the Sinai Peninsula. The Sinai Peninsula is filled with terrorists from al-Qaeda and Islamic State to Hamas and even Iranian backed groups. They attack Egyptian military outposts with varying degrees of success. They often attack the border outposts between Egypt and Gaza in order to allow the flow of terrorists, arms, and contraband into and out of Gaza where Hamas and Islamic Jihad share control. What is interesting about Gaza is that Islamic Jihad is supplied by Iran amongst others and Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood thus provisioned by them and also on occasion they are given rocket engine technologies and even rudimentary guidance systems from Iran as Iran will even arm Sunnis if they are attacking Iran’s favorite target. Egypt has yet to put down the menaces in the Sinai Peninsula and they have even been cleared to use whatever troops and equipment they need and they are apparently fighting a losing battle, or at least not completely reaching a totally peaceful situation. Perhaps they never should have accepted the Sinai Peninsula back when they made peace between President Sadat and Prime Minister Begin.

 

Turkey is also involved in a war which few appear to care to mention. They are claiming to fight against Bashir al-Assad in Syria as well as against Islamic State but somehow the majority of their efforts appear to be barely across the border. They seem preoccupied, or at least President Erdogan is preoccupied, with the Kurds. Turkey could actually make a great agreement and win an ally for life if they would simply allow the Kurds to form their own nation out of northeastern Syria, northern Iraq and at the worst a few tens or hundreds of square miles of southeastern Turkey where the population is majority Kurdish. The United States or other groups would probably handsomely reward Turkey for the lost lands, give a relocation allowance to any Turkish non-Kurdish citizens desiring to leave the Kurdish nation and return to Turkey and all could be settled. Even if Turkey refused to sacrifice a small portion of land, the Kurds in Turkey would likely relocate if they were granted recognition as a nation as was promised them by the British (we all know how good the British are on their promises when oil is involved). Turkey has been bombing and using ground assaults backed by heavy armor against the Kurds who have largely been fighting the Islamic State. Apparently Turkey would prefer the Islamic State on their border than the Kurds, there is no accounting for taste.

 

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

 

Then there are the wars outside of Yemen and Gaza where Iran is a major player. We are referring to Iraq and Syria where Iran is attempting to rule Iraq through proxy and reestablish Bashir al-Assad as the ruler of Syria. Bashir al-Assad has lost almost the entirety of his nation to the Islamic State, a number of other rebels, a Kurdish section which is simply attempting to protect their own people as well as the Yazidi refugees they took in after rescuing them when the rest of the world twiddled their thumbs, President Obama leading the thumb twiddlers. Iran has a friend in Russia who are actually fighting simply to retain their Mediterranean Sea port privileges such that they retain a warm water port capable of allowing ships to enter the Atlantic Ocean year round without having to pass through the Dardanelles in Turkey, an iffy situation at times. That is why the majority of the Russian operations center around Latakia and the port facilities located in that Mediterranean coastal city. Latakia is also in the central region where the Alawite Tribe resides which also happens to be Bashir al-Assad’s allies and tribal alliance and they along with some of the Druze except they have largely withdrawn and are simply, as are the Kurds, defending their own people and lands from the Islamic State and any other threats. They are safe from the Russians, Iranians and Syrian Army and even most likely the Hezballah forces from Lebanon who are supporting Bashir al-Assad as if Syria was their own country and not Lebanon. Hezballah is there because Iran insisted they fight or else Iran would have cut them off and they would then be facing the rest of Lebanon ready to dispose of the Hezballah terrorists who have been ruling Lebanon through their military threat. The one benefit of Hezballah fighting in Syria and taking the casualties in numbers far higher than are admitted is they are unable to attack any others including but not limited to the Christians and other minorities in Lebanon.

 

Our final stop is at the Afghanistan and Pakistan end of MENA. We left out some of the nations at the far end of northern Africa where one of the major problems is Boko Haram who are bloodthirsty Islamist terrorists who often kidnap Christians and even other Muslims and sell them into slavery. They specialize in selling to the sex slave industry and thus most often target young women and boys. Their other main effort is to murder Christians and Animists, something which sounds familiar from the South Sudan. Boko Haram operated largely centered on northern and central Nigeria and the neighboring areas even south to Mali. Meanwhile, Afghanistan and Pakistan consist of large areas which are considered tribal and the government rarely enters these zones as the tribes are well armed and do not recognize the governmental right to their areas. Too often these tribal areas will war with one another and then they make their money off of allowing terrorists to train and make a lucrative business from poppies. The heroin trade is something the government does not fight as they too benefit from the trafficking in illicit drugs. Until there is introduced another cash crop the farmers will grow and sell the easiest and most profitable crop they can raise, poppies. The flowers are almost as pretty as the profits. Needless to point out but where you have such profits there will always be violence as the tribes desire to expand their fields and taking the tribe next door’s fields is the quickest way to making more profit. Additionally, there is the constant state of conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, a nation which appears on older maps and had the distinction of having to be colored white because it had so many neighboring nations on its border that it needed it own color and white was the best one not in use anywhere else. That concludes our Middle East conflict roundup leaving one nation obviously ignored, imagine all this without mentioning the nation always considered the source of the Middle East conflict chart. Perhaps the rest of it is not so peaceful after all.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 15, 2015

We Have a Magic Iran Deal with Entire Transcript of Agreement

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Entire Edited for ease of Reading Transcript of Iran Nuclear Agreement with the P5+1 Group

 

Yes Ladies and Gentleman and kids of all ages, step right up and hear of the Iran deal, the deal of a lifetime with guarantees galore including “Peace in Our Time,” “Free Profits for Every Corporation,” “No Fears of Iranian Nuclear Weapons for the Rest of My Presidency,” and other great thrills and exciting exhibits beyond amazing including our “Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game below?” So sit back, grab some buttered popcorn, popped free of trans fats, and a large soda, recline in your comfortable chair and enjoy the mushrooms appearing on horizons everywhere.

 

three sheep, one large, very large, sheep with wolf-like face howling and two small sheep named lunch Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game above?

Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game above?

 

 

More seriously, the entire agreement can be viewed here with link to our source a Russian publication, and it is not as much reading as you have heard as over three-quarters of the agreement is a list of sanctioned companies and other entities listed one per line often with descriptions and specifics also listed one per line taking up much of the rest of the agreement, all included on our page. The agreement is a breeze to read unless you want to reference the part of this part as per Annex I or Annex III or even as per the Roadmap, whatever that was, and references to other agreements or normative schedules and one thing I did find that was quite straight forward until you try to figure out how these terms might be defined by Iran as versus how France or other concerned parties might interpret them and then this becomes a web of intrigue. Here is this part about inspections, their intent, how they are to be requested and under what limitations;

“Requests for access pursuant to provisions of this JCPOA will be made in good faith, with due observance of the sovereign rights of Iran, and kept to the minimum necessary to effectively implement the verification responsibilities under this JCPOA. In line with normal international safeguards practice, such requests will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities, but will be exclusively for resolving concerns regarding fulfilment of the JCPOA commitments and Iran’s other non-proliferation and safeguards obligations.”

So, who defines “good faith,” “sovereign rights,” “minimum necessary,” “normal international safeguards,” and “will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities,” really, they expect for any time Iran wants to play hide the smoking gun HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) that there will not be a ton of accusations of being too invasive and spying until the site has been cleared and after six months they finally allow access? Am I just overly sensitive and paranoid or might there be something here to be concerned about? Then there is the fact that Iran will be responsible for upgrading their Arak heavy water reactor to minimize its plutonium production and that inspections will be made to verify the alterations. How will such a determination be confirmed when one unnamed nuclear state built an entire fake control room to pass such an inspection while carrying out their research in order to produce nuclear weapons and the fake control room satisfied those sent to carry out the inspections as the gauges were correct and looked the part and the people manning the controls seemed intense and serious but the entire setup was a ploy and it passed. Making me all the more comfortable is that the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) will be responsible for the inspections and they are further restricted by the last phrase in the same paragraph as the above now stating a further restriction

“In implementing this procedure as well as other transparency measures, the IAEA will be requested to take every precaution to protect commercial, technological and industrial secrets as well as other confidential information coming to its knowledge.”

And who gets to define “confidential information” not to mention “commercial, technological and industrial secrets” as I am sure these cannot be interpreted in such a manner that a military enrichment site accidentally revealed through an unauthorized casual conversation with a delivery person, a soon to be very dead delivery person, or other less than brilliant secret holder, would not that be something that would be considered compromising by Iran and thus coming under these restrictions? We already know that the IAEA is better at keeping quiet than they are at actually turning the world upside-down to get to the truth. It is safer and easier to not cross Iran than to spend the rest of your days, no matter how short that may end up being, looking over your shoulder with great amounts of suspicions and trepidations. I will tell you now that if I were assigned to inspect Iran and was even allowed in by the Iranians in the first place, should I find anything resembling troubling my reaction would be exactly the same as Sgt. Schultz from Hogan’s Heroes and I would be seen walking around saying things such as, “I see nothing” and “This time, Col. Hogan, you’ve gone too far” and “Are you trying to get me sent to the Russian front?” which might actually be applicable in this instance as well. Then there is this little gem,

“if the IAEA has concerns regarding undeclared nuclear materials or activities, or activities inconsistent with the JCPOA, at locations that have not been declared under the comprehensive safeguards agreement or Additional Protocol, the IAEA will provide Iran the basis for such concerns and request clarification.”

Clarification, there is a word which is meaningless in the midst of an agreement that requires a linguist, a rocket scientist, a wordsmith, a nuclear scientist, and a magician to understand, and not to worry, Iran will be providing an illusionist and an escape artist along with their interpretations and explanations just to assist with their obstructions.

 

Reading the mitigation procedures has two fifteen day levels that run subsequent and another five day intense mitigation period after which it appears that then the filing party can file a complaint with the Security Council of the United Nations and then if they are still unsatisfied they are free to pursue remedial actions as they feel necessary. That’ll work REAL good! There appear to be far more schedules and instructions for relieving sanctions and making amends by releasing funds and arranging all sorts of other mitigations. The spacing and paragraph breaks (carriage returns for older folks like my peer group) and spaces and tabs arranged in numerous and varying combinations seemingly just to make find/replace in order to rid the document of these wastes of space, memory in files, and headaches for those attempting such cleansing of the document and I am sure was also used to make the number of pages more impressive as after editing the document, it was, as a whole, approximately thirty-five percent fewer pages in my Word file (your savings may differ due to different font, font size, spacing, margins, and general and specific preferences). This was made all the more obvious when according to references from Buzzfeed late Tuesday it was noted that the Russian Foreign Ministry appears to have published a full text of the agreement on their website and the text is some 159 pages long. Even our copy of the full deal as on the Russian site we found it still was well over three hundred pages on Word (same disclaimer as above) and despite leaving entire lines with a few numbers, a company name, the description such as ‘vessel’ as in a ship followed by its registry number in the following line and the owning company in the line above and we all know there was absolutely no manner of formatting which could have reduced those three lines into at most two and more often just a single line, heavens forbid as everybody knows that the more pages used to print and publish an agreement and the more weighty the tome the more impressive and validated any agreement is perceived to be, thus the sometimes ten or even more lines wasted between sections. Another reason for the extensive and cryptic formatting was that they could spend weeks upon weeks arguing over the exact format for each section and again how each section was to be separated from the section before and after it as well as other format issues. Such puts me in the mindset of how I felt upon finding out that the Viet Nam War negotiations held in Paris spent weeks at the outset standing and debating the size, shape and seating at the table they would eventually agree upon and need to order such that neither side felt slighted or inferior. There was one thing I did notice was that the sections which referenced the specifics which Iran had to meet the spacing was far more complex and rendered parts difficult to discern their actual and accurate meaning until the formatting was rendered to something resembling normal while the sectors explaining those things which were in Iran’s favor were far more normally spaced and the wasted lines could have been explained that the wasted spaces were intended to delineate items and make them near impossible to be misinterpreted. There was one item I found outright painful, and it oddly enough was not executing the reformatting as I found two algorithms which neatened up large sections very nicely, which was the intentional use of referencing to outside documents, the reference to the Annexes, all of which simply stood to make interpretations more easily twisted and applied as well as the dependence of Iran to be forthcoming and cooperative and the number of items which were to be arranged and enforced between Iran and Russia, as that could never go awry.

 

So, we have an agreement which will be interpreted by people in very likely broadly different manners and we will find that all sides will be able to read into the document exactly that which they desire to happen and not to apply or apply requirements and implementations which will assist in their desired endings. We also have an agreement which has entire sectors which depend completely on Iranian compliance enforcement, Iran being forthcoming with vital information necessary for actually being able to enforce the terms and stipulations and all of it also will heavily depend on Iran self-policing and having complete honest sincerity in all dealings and not to engage in delaying inspections and providing complete and candid forthcoming on all items even to include reporting if and where they open clandestine enrichment facility which would kind of ruin any concept of a clandestine enrichment, wouldn’t it. Placing the onus for any part of an agreement of such magnitude and of vital importance onto Iran to police themselves after knowing that they had broken numerous stipulations of the previous framework agreements which were vital for the numerous extensions, one after another, with each extension bring a poor deal to a bad deal, to an awful deal all the way to a downright dangerous deal which in all too many ways will prove unenforceable. The one truth to come out of this arms agreement is that President Barack Hussein Obama will have his legacy which will empower Iran potentially thrusting them into a level of leadership of a higher level than they currently possess in the Middle East. Another possibility is the agreement might also empower every last terrorist group supported by Iran such as and not limited to Hezballah, Hamas, IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and other terror forces in the three cities of the tri-border area in South America where the borders of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina meet and are populated by Hezballah in addition to the IRGC and other terrorist operatives who often arrive to receiving training at one of the three cities in the region which serve as home for the terror masters, operatives and trainees; Ciudad del Este, Foz do Iguaçu and Puerto Iguazú (see map below)

 

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

The one thing that is guaranteed is that there will be shrill voices and booming baritones claiming the wonderful aspects and the dreaded coming events and wars because of this deal for the next year and a half as this will be carried on through next November milking this agreement for every political point which can be bled out of it. The ones praising the brilliance and great deal of restraint the deal has forced upon Iran will accuse the detractors to the deal of continuing to kick a dead horse, exactly as they claimed on those opposing ObamaCare and those who deny that any climactic changes are caused by people while those being castigated in such a negative light will reply accusing the other side as being led by their noses and wearing blinders in order to only see that which they have any desire to see. The not so wonderful thing about this situation is that both sides are right about this being carried too far as there may still be a way to alter Iranian desire to build a nuclear arsenal through sanctions but it may require the world cut back on Pistachios as well as oil. The biggest fear is what a nuclear armed Iran would actually do. Would they attack Kuwait and Saudi Arabia or at least grab ahold of the oil fields from both nations whose sole economic health is reliant on those oil fields. Then Iran would be gobbling up the remaining Gulf oil states down the Persian Gulf to also grab ahold of the other side of the Straits of Hormuz giving the Iranians total control of this vital waterway.

 

Further, what else might Iran do with nuclear weapons? There is the chance that Iran would decide that it was not receiving sufficient air, logistical and manpower support when engaging the Islamic State and simply detonate a single tactical nuclear weapon over their headquarters during a period of time they were holding a meeting so as to catch as many of the top leaders of the Islamic State and thus cause dissention and doubt amongst those who thought ISIS really was the invincible return of the Caliph and the establishment of the next Caliphate which would in time rule all of the earth under Sharia as they interpret the Quran and the Hadiths. Such a calamity would spell the end of those dreams and the nightmares they would have wrought on the world. But stopping ISIS would only empower an even greater threat, and even greater evil, Iran and their delusions of being the chosen of Allah to subjugate all and put all of mankind on their knees prostrate facing Mecca. Yes, they would demand we surrender all dignity and prostrate ourselves facing Mecca and the Kaaba (Arabic: الكعبة‎‎ Meaning is ‘cube’) at the center of Islam’s most sacred mosque, Al-Masjid al-Haram (Arabic: المسجد الحرام Meaning literally translated as “the sacred mosque”). Held within the Kaaba is a fragment of a meteorite, a black rock which is described in the Quran with a quote attributed to Mohammad claiming that the Black Stone had “descended from Paradise whiter than milk but the sins of the sons of Adam had made it black.” Which brings us to another belief that the leadership of Iran and has been announcing since 1979, first by the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran the first Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini and now by his successor Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei that Iran should and will, if it is Allah’s will and Allah does indeed will it, for Iran to take control of and tend to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. This high hope has often been stated and exclaimed while also including other holy places which hold great importance to Shia Islam such as the holy city of Qom (Persian: قم‎) in Iran and in Iraq the holy cities of Najaf (Arabic: النجف‎) and Karbala (Arabic: كربلاء‎) which are currently being contest for control between the Islamic State or ISIS and the Iraqi military backed by Iranian IRGC forces who are expected to win the day despite the less than stellar performance of the Iraqi military forces. These leaders of Iran and of all Shiites also strive to take possession of the great responsibility of tending the highest holy sites in all of Islam of Mecca (Arabic: مكة‎) and Medina (Arabic: المدينة المنورة‎) which were all the cities mentioned initially by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini and was not until much later when the Iranian Shia leadership saw inroads through Hamas to open additional front that they could manage to aid Hezballah did the mention of Jerusalem come into their lexicon where it slowly evolved and may finally be cracking into the top five, but definitely as the Arab Palestinians tell the story, the third holiest site in Islam. One might wonder when Jerusalem will best Medina out of the number two slot though Medina has held the number two slot for quite some time when it fell from the number one slot it held while Mohammed rose his army in Medina but when he conquered the city of his birth, Mecca, his true allegiance became obvious as Mecca became the top city and Iran means to one day soon add Mecca and Medina to their list of possessions which may come quicker than anybody realizes. Once the Iranian backed Houthis take control over all of Yemen, Iran will be able to open their second front from the south coordinated with their forces in Iraq to the north and a main force entering through Kuwait in the efforts to takeover Mecca, Medina and the Saudi, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and other Gulf States’ oil fields cementing Iran as the leader of all Islam and the holder of all the cards as they by themselves will be the entirety of the oil replacing OPEC.

 

The full ramifications of establishing this agreement with Iran and the clearing of their path to nuclear weapons will depend on whether they plan on waiting a decade or decide to take the potentially hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars about to come flooding into their coffers and improve the life of the people or go full steam and head-rushing their way to miniaturized warheads simply by warming up to Kim Jong-un and buying his plans or purchasing possibly more advanced warhead designs from China or Russia in order to show their appreciation for their support during these negotiations. The easy prediction is that the world will realize the extents of Iran’s goals faster rather than later as once they possess nuclear weapons the real game starts and all bets are off as to the number of lives it will cost to end their visions of supremacy and world domination. Do not get this wrong as if the leaders of the world play cutesy with Iran and attempt to mollify them as they did in the mid to late 1930s with Hitler they will be giving Iran the Arabian peninsula, Iraq, Yemen and Oman followed soon afterwards the world will probably applaud Iran as they bring the rule of law and establish order as they extend their growing conquests through force of arms and negotiations with a weak and intimidated, risk averse and conflict avoidant Western World adding Somalia, Eretria and Djibouti giving Iran a foothold in the Horn of Africa from which to threaten Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Sudan and Egypt from the south while threatening Egypt from the Sinai and Arabia Peninsulas. From there they would likely co-opt Turkey through an alliance and then take revenge as Persians on Greece for the conquest and ending of the Persian Empire by Alexander the Great, and yes they remember their defeat and will seek to avenge that degradation and Greece is in no shape to resist or fight back. This would place them on the doorstep of Europe and the NATO nations would likely defend Greece with the great and forceful war plan used by France and Britain to defend Czechoslovakia from Hitler except they would hand Greece over in one chunk and not bother with giving half of the islands at a time. After Greece, who knows where next, the entirety of North Africa followed by Andalusia (Arabic: الأندلس‎), which is called Spain since the Inquisition freed Spain from Muslim rule starting in 1492 (a date not particularly celebrated by Jews as we lost just as big if not more so than the Muslims as Spain desired to rid themselves from all non-Catholics which included Jews as well as Muslims except the Jews had no weapons or armies, so guess who paid for any Spanish loss and on the other side the Muslim of the Umayyad Caliphate who also used the Jews as a group upon which their angers could be easily pointed as the Jews made for easy, low-risk targets so we lost on both sides of the Inquisition.

 

After such a move the Muslims would be at their high water mark before Christendom became militarily more advanced and began pushing the Muslims out of their conquests resulting from their breakout from the Arabic Peninsula in the early and mid-eighth century through to the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1917 though the decline started around the mid-seventeenth century. The next rise of Islam may well be under the leadership of a nuclear powered Shiite Islamic revolution which will first convert the now majority Sunni Muslims likely with a ferocity formerly not seen in modern times until the bursting of ISIS onto the world’s stage though the Assad Family had their atrocities and there have been others such as the terror for so many under Saddam Hussein, it is just ISIS was chosen by the media to emphasize and place their atrocities before the world to view and feel a condemnatory rage. What the reason behind such a media exposure we may never know but, in the terms of old showmen everywhere, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!” As others have said, hold on to your hats as the ride is about to begin and it is going to be a wild ride. Like any old-school rollercoasters, the ride may start slow but watch out for that first step, it’s a doozy.

 

Entire Edited for ease of Reading Transcript of Iran Nuclear Agreement with the P5+1 Group

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 15, 2013

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Fall Upends Obama Middle East Aims

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It has been reported by the <a href=http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/03/29/obama-promoted-egypt-iran-turkey-alliance-in-tense-israel-meeting/>World Tribune</a> website the absolutely shocking and controversial content of President Obama rendition of the future for the Middle East which the United States as their policy goals for his second term in the White House. The Israelis did not respond in any manner and allowed President Obama to enthusiastically reveal every detail of his vision for solving all the problems in the Middle East simply by building an alliance under a triumvirate of shared absolute power by Shiite Iran teamed with Sunni Egypt and Turkey. It was in the pursuit of this end that President Obama pressured to the point of threatening Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into apologizing and committing to a complete capitulation to Turkey over the Mavi Marmara terror incident when a Turkish backed flotilla attempted to run the Gaza blockade. When the prearranged ambush was sprung on the IDF soldiers, who boarded the ship armed with paintball guns loaded with pepper spray balls, beating them with metal rods, large knives and other bludgeoning weapons (some reports included gunshots coming from the ship’s attackers before the IDF soldiers responded) as well as taking one soldier below decks and throwing two other IDF soldiers overboard, the IDF soldiers resorted to live fire, as they feared for their lives, killing nine of their attackers. This exchange was the cause of Turkish President Erdogan breaking off relations with Israel and demanding a formal apology and paid retribution for the families of the slain attackers aboard the Mavi Marmara. It was said that the Israelis were in a state of shock but heeded their instruction not to question or comment on anything presented by the American leader.

The plan which has President Obama so enthusiastically engaged calls for the strengthening of Iran, Turkey and Egypt, the Egyptian strengthening has begun with the shipment of F-16 fighter jets to be delivered during this year, and having these three strengthened Muslim nation cooperate and through such cooperation form a single Muslim federation. President Obama claims that such an arrangement would relieve any troubles that might have developed due to the Iranian drive to attain nuclear weapons. President Obama informed the Israeli leaders that once his plan was executed that with Iran now allied with Turkey and Egypt the threat of a nuclear arms race between the various Muslim and Arab nations would no longer be a threat so nobody would need fear a nuclear armed Iran in this scenario. I am sure that this calmed the Israelis being informed that allying Iran with Egypt and Turkey would remove any threat of Iran nuclear weapons being used against the other Arab and Muslim nations and that there would be no adverse results to a nuclear armed Iran as long as the three nations were responsible to each other. President Obama apparently believes that Iran would refrain from attacking Israel with nuclear weapons because Turkey and Egypt would object and prevent such actions. Yes, sure they wouldn’t.

Another nation that is most conspicuous by their absence from President Obama’s new Middle East scheme is Saudi Arabia. The implication was that Saudi Arabia along with Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and the rest of the nations of the Arabian Peninsula would be under Iranian control making the land to be renamed the Persian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf. The betrayal of Saudi Arabia and all of the other member nations of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) as a sacrifice given for the honoring of Iran and to reward them for joining President Obama and his plan super Caliphate where the Iranian Shiites along with the Turkish Sunnis and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Sunnis all lie down together in harmony and bliss for the good of the Muslim World with President Obama as the great facilitator. This is where the little upheaval in Egypt becomes far more than an inconvenience as for President Obama to make his plan work must have the Islamists in control of each of his three chosen nations, and the Muslim Brotherhood just lost Egypt. Of course this dream Islamist coalition shoves aside the centuries of Sunni-Shiite hatreds in the immediate timeframe in order to unite the adversaries into an irresistible unified force for Islam and return to the glorious Caliphate such as was the Ottoman Empire at its height. What President Obama has caught on to as the solution to all the world’s ills, especially the Muslim World, is the simple walking back the results of World War I, the repealing step-by-step the entirety of the Treaty of Versailles and the Mandate System as they pertain to the world of Islam. No more separate Arab and Muslim nations or any other arbitrary lines and chosen potentates which were put in place just to serve the colonialist European powers, those decrepit and corrupt enslavers of all who were different than they. This is President Obama’s vision, the end of the ill effects of colonialism on the Muslim World and by ridding the Muslim World of this European imposed crippling systems and divisions, the Muslim World will be returned to its golden age.

There are a few major items which might cause this stratagem to fail and fail in a splendid and admirable fashion, a failure unequalled in all of human history, rivaling the Tower of Babel and other epic failures. The most glaring is that the Shiites and Sunnis only know one method for burying the hatchet, and that is to bury it as deeply as possible in the other’s skull which tends to settle any argument. Another problem for President Obama is to get Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to agree to share power and make compromises even with the Muslim Brotherhood approved leader of Egypt, assuming that President Obama can manage to reinstate the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt, no easy task all things considered, let alone the Shiite Grand Ayatollah in Iran. Further problems might arise as I seriously doubt that Saudi Arabia (especially the Royal Family and the Wahhabis), Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman or Bahrain would be enthusiastic about being handed to Iran no matter what the reasons. Looking at just the countries which have experienced governmental changes as a result of the Arab Spring one will be witness to a collection of train wrecks where the whole idea was for elected governments to be in place and improvements in every aspect of society with the most advancement coming financially and in personal rights and freedoms. Instead we see a state of affairs better described as having entered an Arab Winter with Libya, Yemen and Syria still experiencing internecine violence as the different factions and tribes struggle for preeminence and control where those interests vary including tribal groups, al-Qaeda and Hezballah fighters, the Muslim Brotherhood forces, State Militaries, and Mujahedeen fighters from throughout the Muslim World and the four corners of the Earth. And last but not least, little Israel would definitely fight to the last soul against any attempts to remove the Jews from their homeland as they have just started to get it together and hit high gear towards rebuilding their society and gathering in their lost children from every corner of the globe.

President Obama may be enthusiastic and all excited, one might even say all atwitter, over the concept of redrawing the Middle East and the rest of the Arab and Muslim Worlds to suit some grant strategy to reconstruct and usher in a second Golden Age of Islam. The idea that the borders between countries, even those borders as artificial as those drawn mostly by the French and the British, can be erased with a few words and there would not be any resistance to turning everything everybody has known in their lives upside-down is foolish and not something worthy of the man who is the leader of the United States. There should be somebody within the Administration to advise the President that his plan is simply not possible. But then we need to remember who the real people are who make up President Obama’s inner circle of advisers. Recognizing that we are counting on Secretary of State John Kerry, Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, and Senior Advisor to the President Valerie Jarrett, among others, to give sagely, well thought out, wise and experienced advice to President Obama reveals the crux of the deficiencies surrounding the President. The problem is that each of these high Administration officials have little if any experience in foreign affairs and other than John Kerry and Chuck Hagel the rest of these Presidential Advisors have spent the better part of their lives as agitators for social justice and social transformation and would be more at home designing government mandated single payer healthcare regulations than advising on anything to do with international affairs. And the fact that one has to resort to Chuck Hagel and John Kerry for astute, intricate and nuanced advice should be sufficient to send shiver down one’s spine and a cold chill throughout one’s body filling them with a strong sense of anxiety and trepidation. I can assure you it does so for me.

Beyond the Cusp

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