A Gauntlet Thrown at the United States Feet

 

Reportedly a Russian General strode into the United States Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq and demanded to speak with somebody responsible for military actions and handed the officer a letter after which some curt words were exchanged and the Russian left without further explanation. It has been further reported that there has been a Russian demand that the United States cease all air activity and cease and desist any sorties in the greater Syrian theater or risk a confrontation with Russian aircraft who have orders to defend against United States interference, or so it appears was the implication. Other rumored reports claim that the Russian bombing runs today were concentrated on the areas occupied not by the Islamic State but on the Syrian “rebels” which were trained and working with the United States. This we believe is somewhat a bit of hyperbole as the latest reports claimed that the United States efforts had produced less than two dozen fighters after two years and countless investment in time, money and equipment and that does not sound like anything that would require more than one airstrike. The likelihood is that the Russians were hitting the rebels who oppose Bashir al-Assad which would include potential strikes on United States trained fighters, especially with reports from this past week that they were trading much of their United States provided aid in exchange for free passage through other rebel groups areas in order to avoid a fight which they would likely have lost. So, with the United States continuing to fly sorties, though how few is uncertain, and the Russians presumably threatening to protect Assad and his Alawites and their coastal region from United States air attacks, the question is would the United States attack Assad troops and position or simply contain their strikes to Islamic State positions. Another problem might become a point of contention is if the United States aircraft on missions necessarily cross over Assad’s regions would the Russians attempt to down the United States flights and if such should happen, what would be the reaction from the White House and the Congress.

 

There are too many questions and such complete uncertainty with far too few sources of information to base any hypotheses upon with any degree of accuracy; but why not just fly off the handle and take a stab at this situation and see what we produce and judge it later down the road. Apparently the Pentagon plans to continue with their missions as assigned and ignore the Russian threats probably hoping that it was just so much bluster and sabre rattling. Putin probably feels quite certain that should he push hard enough that President Obama would back down just as he did with the red line fiasco with Assad and the use of chemical weapons which President Putin saved Obama’s bacon as he stewed in pools of indecision and slow and repeated retreats. This is what Putin is basing his boldness upon and has no reason, from the track record which President Obama has compiled, to think differently. The problem is with the Iran deal beginning to tarnish already under the microscope of public opinion, President Obama may be seeking some strong armed acts which he can rebuild some form of foreign policy and military prowess legacy. A desperate man with the clock running out might prove too irrational and unpredictable for anybody to make a safe bet on what actions might be now considered worth the risk. When President Jimmy Carter found himself looking weak he attempted a rescue of the hostages held by Iran and the mission ended in tragedy and dead United States troops including Special Forces and Navy Seals if I remember correctly. A desperate Administration still seeking an uncontested foreign policy legacy which has hung its final shot on degrading the Islamic State and forcing regime change in Syria necessarily removing Bashir al-Assad from being in contention in that process. The Iranians, Hezballah and now Russia have staked their claim to Syria and restoring al-Assad to power and then holding a Syrian election where al-Assad will win reelection by sufficient margin to remove any doubt to his authenticity no matter how unverified the election numbers might be. The Russians have made one thing very clear, despite the overt efforts of the Obama White House’s demands for Assad to be removed from power and not permitted to run in any new elections, as the United States has Assad tried and convicted for his abuses of the men and women who had remained in Syria living in rebel occupied areas and presumed to have joined or be supporting the rebels even if all they were doing was protecting their home and limit their losses, just attempting to survive and not actually backing either side, the two sides will continue to butt heads until President Obama realizes the error of his ways, or so Putin is adamant. The United States does not actually have a dog in this fight while the Russians most definitely have their own pet dog in the fray, Bashir al-Assad, along with Hezballah and Iran, and a potential route towards gaining control over Iraq and Europe and the land bridges between them. The Iranians basically told the world what was the reason and against whom his forces are fighting for and this has been further validated through their actions. The enemy in Syria are the best training facilities built by the Soviet Union back before their break-down and Assad accepted the assistance from the many different sides thus making himself largely responding to the demands and instruction of Russian forces assisting and supplying the tools required to draw Israel into the fight.

 

This multiple fractioned war has coalitions which can be instructive as to who sides with whom and who are the actual players. The initial two sides have all but been destroyed or subsumed by their original parent groups. The Syrian forces of Bashir al-Assad have reacted strongly but with lesser and older weapons than has the Islamic State. The forces fighting with al-Assad currently are the remainder of his military who have stood by his side and watched their power and nation be laid waste and been unable to prevent this horror story. The immediate allies for al-Assad have been Hezballah and originally Iran who are the actual puppet masters working the marionettes. Their final benefactor, forced by the precarious situation faced by Assad and his allies as they had been defeated across the boards, the Russians have jumped into the fray with both feet betting that the United States will accept Russians determining the end results in Syria or be forced to face the Islamic State with little if any assistance from the remaining forces in Iraq as well as Syria using almost universally United States fighting men and women on the ground. The opposition breaks into three distinct groups, the social-Marxists consisting of the leftist forces whose desire was to restructure Syria into a model leftist socialist state. Then there were the Islamist supremacy groups which include all the various factions of al-Qaeda to the Muslim Brotherhood fighting against al-Assad in a semi-symbiotic relationship with the social-Marxists. Then there is the breakaway force which sees itself as the sole preordained leader of all Sunni and eventually all Muslim forces under their self-proclaimed Caliphate. That is the most basic description of the breakdown of the forces before the Russians responded to the sad state of the Alawite troops losses which threatened complete bombing began to systematically strike at the anti-al-Assad forces including the rebels trained by the United States. There are also the forces known as the Islamic State which appear to be a problem to everybody not an active subscriber to their radical agenda who claim they are the core of the new Caliphate. The end result is this self-proclaimed Caliph and his forces will continue to grow unless somebody is forced into committing troops to prevent such advances. From appearances President Obama had been attempting to prevent any large contingent to coalesce around the United States enemies, as well as to force al-Assad from power, without committing any United States ground troops, a tactic which has died gloriously just as predicted and allowed, if not forced, the Russians to appear. This forced Russia to declare their interests and willingness to enforce their side by any and all means required. This will settle the situation in favor of al-Assad by default. The problem is this may not go far enough to eradicate the Islamic State which could surrender their Syrian holdings rather than contend with the Russian troops and simply continue their expansions through Iraq and potentially further throughout the region.

 

 

 

The big, and we mean really big, question is what steps if any will the United States take from the Russian demands they leave the area. Will President Obama press a confrontation and how will he react when any actions, especially sorties flown by United States Air Force and Navy pilots are challenged over Syrian air space and warned to retreat and never return as their assistance is not required nor desired. Will President Obama press the situation to its breaking point of the Russians shooting down an American aviator and taking the pilot prisoner which could happen today of that is the way the cards are being laid out on the table. This current situation with the direct confrontation being pressed and the game of chicken and who will blink first begins. If the glares never blink the other result is a war between Russia and the United States and all the potential ramifications of such a conflict come into play. Our bet is it will get extremely tense and at the last minute some facilitation will be found or Putin will blink first as President Obama is not calling the shots for the United States or he would have turned and run from the first threats as he has done every time he has been challenged. This situation is as serious as or more so than has been played in the media and the media may try to prevent things from boiling over but they will find that beyond their control or even influence. The media can only exacerbate the problem and send things spinning out of control even faster. That is what they must avoid at all costs.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Is This Obama’s Dangerous Plan for Israel?

At the end of yesterday’s article we opined on the rumors that President Obama has given Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu guarantees that there will be peacekeeping troops placed in the areas which Israel releases for the formation of the Palestinian state in order to prevent terrorist strikes or rockets and mortars being launched into Israel as is done by Hamas out of Gaza. The soldiers manning the peacekeeping forces would come from any of the following; only United States, NATO countries, or even the United Nations. It is likely that Israel would prefer not to depend on either the United Nations or any of the European nations, so such a force will most likely be manned by Americans. We would like to express our distress should these rumors have even one iota of credibility and beseech that no foreign troops be placed in a position where they are presumed to be protecting Israel. The potential for horrific results and of so many ways such a situation could turn out ugly that it would be best to never even tempt fate and disaster so brazenly.

 

Thinking and researching further on these rumors we came across other ideas of where the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations may be headed should the talks themselves fail to reach an agreement. Some of this information we gleaned from a number of sources painted a picture that was very distressing. The negotiations which are currently in progress were entered with Prime Minister Netanyahu offering to impose a building freeze over almost all of the West Bank but Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas refused that offer and instead substituted the demand for the one-hundred-four terrorist prisoners serving life sentences and already having served the longest of Palestinian prisoners to be released in groups as the negotiations proceeded and progress was attained. When Israel agreed after a fair amount of distress and many demonstrations by the Israeli people against such a release of murderous terrorists, especially the relatives of those murdered by these very terrorist prisoners, Netanyahu informed Abbas and the rest of the Palestinian leadership about the imminent announcement of Israeli construction in the settlement blocks which have been agreed since the beginning were to remain under Israeli rule and were part of the land swaps to be formalized through negotiations. So, all the screaming and protesting, posturing and threatening, condemnations and petitioning the world to also condemn Israeli construction plans was a put on act as there was no surprise and they had already approved the Israeli construction. The whole intent of the Palestinian show of rage at the Israeli announcement of new housing was perpetrated in order to draw further condemnations and maybe even stimulate more nations to place Israel under sanctions or other political isolations and restrictions and their plotting worked as planned as the European Union took the opportunity to place an embargo on all Israeli products from the settlement blocks responding to the Palestinian temper tantrum act.

 

In order to fully understand the end game that President Obama may be planning to execute, one has to understand that President Obama is determined to be the person who forges a Palestinian state and an end to the Arab-Israeli animosities. Another fact that needs to be understood is the entire scheme of the Palestinians from the very outset of the entire Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been to never agree to any solution and continuing the fraud all the while conducting a concentrated, well planned, and well supported propaganda campaign to demonize the Israelis and glorify the idea of the Palestinians as the victims of horrendous treatment under Israeli occupation. The intent the whole while was to take the historic story behind the history of the Jewish people and forge a Palestinian mystique that paralleled the Jews story and use the same ideas right down to using some of the same terms such as the “Right of Return”. The end target the Palestinians are seeking is to have forced mediation and settlement from the United Nations with the Security Council using Article 33 through 37 of the United Nations Charter. One more part of the Palestinians plans is to, as much as possible, have the Israelis treated as the obstacle to finding a peace agreement which they have depended on two main items, first that as they have shown a resolute refusal to bend in even the slightest manner that nobody bothers to place any demands on the Palestinian forcing all compromises to be forced out of the Israelis, and second they have depended on the historic suspicions of the Jewish people and anti-Semitism especially amongst the Muslim world and the Europeans as well as many on the extreme left politically. Using this multi-front attack the Palestinians have managed to successfully attain most of their targets to a sufficient amount that the only thing left for them to accomplish is to convert the United States leadership to turn against Israel in the Security Council and allow for the United Nations and the rest of the world in support force a solution on Israel which grants the Palestinians everything they could ever have asked for.

 

This target may be within sight, or at worst just around the corner. Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama have both been pressing Prime Minister Netanyahu stressing the point that should these last gasp attempts not produce a peace between Israel and the Palestinians with the formation of Palestine to the Palestinians’ satisfaction then Israel may just find themselves completely isolated and friendless amongst the nations of the world. This has been the reason and message behind the constant repetition that there is a limited window of opportunity for peace to be negotiated. The critically important phrase is ‘limited window’ as it implies that should these negotiations fail, then there is no longer any way of reaching a peace through negotiations. If negotiations can be declared defunct and useless to pursue any further, then the only way to solve such a situation is where the United Nations Charter sets out the requirements and the steps in order to impose an equitable peace as determined by mediation by the United Nations. President Obama had made references to the potential need to impose a peace on the Palestinian-Israeli situation in some talks he held during his first term with some of the Arab rulers and also with Abbas. Add to that, Abbas has made mention of the approaching situation where it may be necessitated to impose a peace agreement on Israel by a coming together of the world to solve this otherwise intractable problem.

 

So, exactly how would things proceed if the end result being aimed for is a solution by agreement or imposition or however it turns out is required? These negotiations will reach close to their nine-month time limit with no complete resolution attained but with some progress has been attained as there is a requirement for progress in order for the Palestinian terrorist murderers to be released by Israel. The ninth month arrives without any treaty so there is a call to make one last six-month push as the two sides are so close. As per usual, the Palestinians refuse to return to continue the negotiations holding out until some preconditional demand or two are forced out of the Israelis. The likely demand will be for the continuation of the Palestinian terrorist prisoner release likely leading to virtually every terrorist is freed and of course there would now be the call for a building freeze and finally there might be a possible demand for Israel to remove some of the Israelis in the furthest settlements that exist in Area B. After six weeks of strenuous and exhausting negotiations with Secretary of State Kerry making two a week trips to the Middle East or at least somebody from the State Department or Defense Department and possibly a guarantee of sale of some desired weapons for the Israelis and the negotiations recommence. The six weeks pass and instead of progress even things that had been resolved during the nine-month negotiations are no longer settled as the Palestinians go back on agreements and then claim the Israelis have been dealing deceitfully and misrepresenting what was already agreed to because they are refusing to meet their obligations. This is a repeat of previous acts performed by Abbas and by Yasser Arafat before him. When everything blows up with Abbas and Erekat both storming from the negotiations and holding a well-polished and fully practiced press conference where they denounce the Israelis for deceitful negotiating methods, relenting on agreements and every other possible sin one can commit breaking any good-faith negotiations. The mainstream world media runs headlines for a week denouncing Israel for blowing up any hope for peace and then comes the trip by Abbas to the United Nations demanding that the Security Council recognize Palestine and force Israel to comply with their obligations. This time the United States abstains rather than using their veto and the rest is, as they say, obvious. The world turns their forces towards Israel and the entirety of the world, with possibly a few exceptions, all scramble to provide troops to assist the Palestinians in cleansing their territory of any Israeli presence and forcing Israel to retreat at best back to the 1949 Armistice Lines and who knows what could be worse. One must remember that there have been votes taken in the General Assembly of the United Nations where Zionism was equated with Racism and another time to repeal the November 1948 Partition Plan which led to the declaration establishing the state of Israel the following May 14, 1949. What would prevent the United Nations from deciding to replace Israel with the state called Palestine rather than merely forming Palestine alongside Israel?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Israel, Terrorist Release, New Israeli Building, and the Peace Process

The Israeli government just agreed to release the first twenty-six terrorist prisoners of the one-hundred-plus terrorists who are to be released as the price demanded by the Palestinian leadership in order to entice them to even come to the negotiating table. As a possible move to soften the distress and betrayal felt by many Israelis over these murderous terrorists, all of whom have blood on their hands and were serving life sentences, the government also announced tenders for building new housing in Jerusalem and areas in Judea and Samaria. Immediately after the announced tenders the Palestinian leadership, including lead negotiator Saeb Erekat, demanded Israel rescind these offers or else they would not return to the peace talks which they had agreed to hold in exchange for the prisoner release. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had offered Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas a building freeze in exchange for Palestinian participation in the peace negotiations but they turned down that offer instead demanding the prisoner release. Now they are backing in to also demanding a building freeze without forgoing the prisoner release. The Palestinians need to choose which concession it is they are demanding, the prisoner release or a building freeze, which one and not both. But this has been the Palestinian method of negotiating as we have pointed out before. They demand a concession, usually one that is very difficult for many Israelis to accept such as this prisoner release, in order to have them return to the negotiations and then as soon as the mood strikes they will demand yet another concessions in order to entice them to meet an additional time. Then down the road they will make another demand for another concession or they threaten to quit the negotiations. Eventually, when it appears that the negotiations are reaching a point where an agreement is imminent they make a string of demands which include certain known deal breakers such as Israel surrendering all of Easter Jerusalem along with acceptance of the pre-June 1967 Lines as the borders with the allowing five-million-plus refugees be given residence and citizenship within Israel and whatever else might strike their fancy for the moment knowing such a barrage of demands will be rejected by Israel. After Israel refuses to grant the final concessions the Palestinians claim Israel blew-up the negotiations by not meeting their obligatory commitments as demanded by the Palestinians.

 

This new demand for an imposed building freeze or else the Palestinians refuse to rejoin the peace negotiations is exactly what we had been expecting though some here thought it might have waited at least one or two more meetings before being rolled out. So, in review of where things stand, the Israelis offered a building freeze which the Palestinians refused demanding in its stead a prisoner release of pre-Oslo terrorist prisoners. Israel guaranteed to grant a set of staggered prisoner releases with the first twenty-six coming this week just before or at the same time as the second meeting is scheduled. Now, as Israel announced their intention to build on lands which Israel is expected to retain even after the negotiations, the Palestinians have demanded that they be granted an Israeli building freeze on top of the prisoner release or they will refuse to continue with the negotiations. One might curiously ask what exactly have the Palestinians sacrificed or contributed in order to show that they are negotiating in good faith and also showing their seriousness. Funny you should ask as the Palestinians would become very indignant should you ever ask such a question of them. You see the rules according to the European Union, many European governments, most of the Human Rights NGOs, the myriad of Palestinians rights and Palestinian peace NGOs, the Arab League, the Arab and Muslim Worlds, most of the nations belonging to the NAM (non-aligned Nations), the United Nations as well as its attendant Agencies, the United States State Department, United States President Obama, United States Secretary of Defense Kerry, European Union Foreign Minister Lady Ashton, Russia, and numerous other luminaries, the Palestinians are not  required to make concessions as they have nothing to offer as they are downtrodden and victims of cruel, oppressive treatment being ignored and condemned to misery by much of the world and must be treated as the forever injured party which is to be granted their every demand, especially and solely if those demands are for funding from the Europeans, United States and those organizations funded predominantly by the Europeans and United States or anything they dream or desire from the Israelis and must never be made to actually meet any standards or even be held to their promises because they are the Palestinians who shall never be challenged. Yes, that was a long and difficult thought string but after breaking it down and reading it two or three times it starts to become clearer. It basically says that the world had decided that the Israelis are supposed to give and the Palestinians receive, the Israelis get to bleed and the Palestinians get to dance and exchange sweets, just as the West and any nation not under the control and protection of Islam also gets to bleed while the Palestinians get to dance and exchange sweets just as they did in response to New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001; Madrid trains and train stations on March 11, 2004; London underground and busses on July 7, 2005 then again on July 21, 2005; Mumbai from Wednesday, November 26, 2008 lasting until Saturday, November 29, 2008; and other past attacks no matter where in the world and they will likely celebrate such acts again in the future. The only way this will end is when Israel finally manages to place into the office of the Prime Minister a man with the fortitude, backbone, conscience and chutzpah to agree to one final negotiation without any preconditions or concessions and everything on the table and if no peace is forged then never again will Israel carry the burden of such humiliations and all of Judea and Samaria will be annexed to meet the definition permitted by the United Nations agreements assuring Israel be satisfied they have defendable borders and those Arabs who wish to leave will be compensated for their lands and given a generous stipend to assist their relocation and those who desire to be Israeli citizens will be given a stipulated series of requirements and after satisfying these prerequisites they will be granted citizenship dependent on a background and security investigation. The only other way this farce can end is in a final war where one side is thoroughly defeated once and for all. The other choice is for this insanity to continue ad-nauseum into the future for as far as human existence can endure. That is no future to look forward to for either side but is one of the options which will result if those of weak wills are left to decide the future. My main opinion is I am glad that I will never have to make these choices as I will never be placed into a leadership position of either the Palestinians or the Israelis and for that I am truly grateful.

 

Beyond the Cusp